tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62143279405194747152024-03-20T11:12:33.458-04:00Bearcatmark's Blog: I May Be Wrong, But I Doubt itRandom posts about sports, politics, entertainment, books and writing. The only place for always correct takes.Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.comBlogger129125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-69656893661698634682024-02-19T09:38:00.004-05:002024-02-19T09:39:23.868-05:00Wes Miller Continues to Do an Exceptional Job<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">Roughly a year ago, when UC fans were panicking because Wes
Miller’s Bearcat team wasn’t going to make the NCAA tournament in year 2, I
wrote an article titled “<a href="https://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2023/02/why-i-think-wes-miller-will-bring-uc.html">Why I think Wes Miller will bring UC Back.</a>”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Year 2 ultimately saw UC jump 50 spots in
kenpom from year one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It saw a team make
the NIT quarterfinals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It saw a team
with predictive metrics of a fringe tournament team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a huge step in the right
direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So here
we are a year later, in the toughest conference in college basketball, and I
continue to read about how bad this team is from far too many.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This year’s team has jumped another 15ish
spots in the predictive metrics despite losing 5 of its top 6 scorers from last
year and playing in the best conference in college basketball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It has the predictive metrics of a solid
tournament team, though the resume metrics are that of a bubble team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">So, with a few weeks left to go, UC
sits squarely on the bubble, with more chances to play their way in. <span style="color: red;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">That
is an accomplishment and a testament to the job Wes Miller has done with this
basketball team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">This Team is Missing Top of the Roster Starters</span><o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Almost
every team that makes the tournament as an at large team will have top of the
roster starters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC just doesn’t have
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wes restocked the roster last
offseason with Big 12 level guys at nearly every position (and developed a few
that were in the program on his own), but none of those guys are top of the
roster starters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evan Miya had a great
chart that really visualizes this:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXAhWteyRG5yFq72kDQ-7EEhO7USwCsCjI9BNHy9UMyH7h4Cm5XfKn4U4rNl-BLI6lo2I4OvwMd3nCjGzkBRrbA3C6aYDiuhlzmjCrLUU-nrV8EzTRlomzQe4iBEkIsP6hhLZsBL9ezVun5Abp8VLjanw-6ROmGB7B6SLYCaINHWVWSbqcUy4upy6bh8/s4096/mayaplayerchart.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2284" data-original-width="4096" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXAhWteyRG5yFq72kDQ-7EEhO7USwCsCjI9BNHy9UMyH7h4Cm5XfKn4U4rNl-BLI6lo2I4OvwMd3nCjGzkBRrbA3C6aYDiuhlzmjCrLUU-nrV8EzTRlomzQe4iBEkIsP6hhLZsBL9ezVun5Abp8VLjanw-6ROmGB7B6SLYCaINHWVWSbqcUy4upy6bh8/w547-h304/mayaplayerchart.jpg" width="547" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://twitter.com/EvanMiya/status/1758547029884805181?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1758547029884805181%7Ctwgr%5E36af726b8ba369edcc2d3f5fce04a7b85fb0fe83%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fcincinnati%2Fboard%2F40%2FContents%2Fwwyd-227384310%2F%3Fpage%3D1">Evan Miya Tweet</a></p>
<br />
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>These
are the top 40 teams by NET.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only
Oklahoma’s and Washington States’ top guy is as low as Dan Skillings, UC’s top
guy by Miya’s metric.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if you look,
there is a cluster up by Skillings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
spread in UC’s 7 most impactful guys isn’t very much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are all good players, nobody is
great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I don’t
think that’s an indictment on Wes’s roster building either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Nolley had returned this year they’d
probably have that true high end guy they are missing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there are guys on the roster that I think
are going to develop into that as soon as next season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dan Skillings has made an enormous leap from
1 to year 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s been the best guy on
this team more often than anyone during Big 12 play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Jizzle
James is making as big of an impact as I can remember any Freshman making at UC
since Jarron Cumberland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is every
reason to believe he is going to be an elite college basketball player.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Transfers often make their biggest jump from
year 1 to year 2 in a program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aziz,
Reynolds, Simas and Day Day have all shown glimpses of what could make them
special players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is every reason
to believe all can make jumps next year (not that all of them will, but they
don’t need all of them to).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And UC
doesn’t need everyone to be a top of the roster starter… they just need a
few.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">What Wes is Doing Without Top of the Roster Starters is Absurdly
Impressive</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Look at
that chart again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC is a complete anomaly
among the NET top 40 teams. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Almost everyone
has not just better high end guys, significantly better high end guys, than
UC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s best player varies so much game to game,
hell, sometimes several times a game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></b>Which is why, we’ve seen Wes
tinker throughout the season, working to find the right lineup combinations, working
to figure out who has it that night, or who is the best matchup within a
specific game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aziz Bandaogo can look
like the best player on the floor against UCF the other night, or against BYU,
but completely out of place against Iowa State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
games where the floor opens up Newman can really bring you a lot of offense,
particularly getting to the rim, but he’s also been reliable on open
threes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In games, where the defenses are
elite in their rotations, he has really struggled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Dan has been the closest thing to a
consistent, game after game, guy in Big 12 play, but we all know there are
segments where his offense tends to disappear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Simas is our best decision maker and best at understanding where to go
with the ball, but defenses can force him into some turnovers when they really
pressure him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">This team has a variety of skills
from a variety of very different, good, big 12 level basketball players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they are all really guys not meant to
carry a team (at least at this point in the college basketball careers).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wes has found ways to balance that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To stay in games when he’s not getting the
play he needs from a couple of guys, by identifying and leaning on guys who are
playing better or perhaps are just better matchups in that particular
game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The fact that this team has only
been blown out once in conference play is a testament to the absurd job Wes is
doing at navigating the roster limitations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He has consistently put UC in position to win games, and while they haven’t
won them all, they have 3Q1 road wins in conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a home win over TCU (A Q2 A win at
the moment).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are firmly on the
bubble with a chance to play their way into the tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is a huge deal for a team that replaced
5 of its top 6 scorers from last season and jumped from the American Athletic Conference
to the Best Conference in College Basketball (by a wide margin).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">It’s Also a Big Deal for Next Season</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I don’t
want to spend too much time on next season, because I think there is plenty to
play for this year and believe this team is still well positioned to get UC
back to the dance… but Wes didn’t just bring in one year, stop-gap guys.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has a roster positioned to have
significant continuity in year 2 in the Big 12, and the potential to make an
enormous leap (and that’s without portal additions).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Getting
all of these guys another year in the program will be huge for their
development.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dan and Jizzle are two guys
I am confident will be stars… and I think next year is a reasonable timetable for
both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reynolds and Aziz are both very
capable centers who have showed potential to be more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are very different and could be a great
two headed monster next season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Simas
will have another year in the program to grow with the guys around him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This
feels like a roster poised to make a huge leap next year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that’s before the portal where even one
big time addition could be enormous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d
be shocked if they weren’t a top 25 team next year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d be surprised if they weren’t a top 20
team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they have a great chance to
be a top 15 team next year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because we’ve
seen a team, without stars, integrating a ton of new pieces, navigating
injuries, and missing guys due to transfer issues, do a lot of great
things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once this team has the high end
starters that nearly every other top 40 team has, the sky is the limit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>All of
that is a testament to the job Wes Miller is doing this season, and the job he
is doing building this program to put it in position to succeed in the
future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are lucky to have one of the
best young coaches in college basketball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I wish more fans would enjoy the ride.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-61763395409181214052023-10-16T10:45:00.005-04:002023-10-16T10:47:21.937-04:00Transition Seasons are Hard<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">I feel like I was just writing one of these “don’t panic”
pieces about Wes Miller and the basketball program (because I was).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t write about sports very often
anymore, but Saturday was one of the most frustrating days as a Bearcat
football fan since 2017… so I have a lot to say.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats are now 2-4 in the Satterfield
era, two years removed from an improbable college football playoff run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s disappointing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s frustrating. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it shouldn’t be surprising given the
roster transition, coaching transition and conference transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bearcat fans seem to have <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">collective amnesia</b>, completely unable to remember the struggles of
past transitions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In most cases, Year 1
is a terrible year for judging whether your coaching hire will be
successful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is especially true when
you understand the complete talent drain Satterfield walked into at QB, wide
receiver, offensive line and in the secondary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The offense was almost entirely a complete, one year, rebuild… with 10
new starters, most of which were not on the roster last season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the results on the field have reflected
that situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is nothing fans love to do more than blame coaches at
every sign of trouble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When things
aren’t working it’s always “the play calling” or the “lack of effort” or the
“lack of fire” from the staff.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t know
whether this staff will be successful long term (it’s too early)… just like I
didn’t know whether look Fickell would be successful after his 4-8 first
season, or Dantonio after his struggles the first two seasons, or hell, even
Tuberville, who managed 9-4 but was playing in the AAC with talent recruited
for the Big East… a huge advantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What
I know, is overreacting in year 1 is really silly, and there are major talent
issues on this roster, which is playing the highest level of competition its
played since the Big East collapsed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: red;">The story of this season has been a lack of difference
makers on offense combined with a middle of the AAC caliber offensive
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The dirty little secret of the Luke Fickell era was the
offensive line was never particularly good, 2020 was the loan exception, and
even then, it really only had one big time player.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It didn’t matter because UC played in the
American and the offensive line was middle of the American caliber.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also didn’t matter because UC had an
absurd amount of talent everywhere else on offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2021 UC had an NFL QB, 3 NFL wide
receivers, 2 NFL tight ends, and an NFL running back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was more than enough to steamroll even
good teams, despite the offensive line issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hell, even last year, UC had 2 NFL wide receivers and 2 NFL tight
Ends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite that, the offense finished
73<sup>rd</sup> in SP+ adjusted offensive efficiency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The downgrade at QB, and the loss of a
gamebreaker running back just made things significantly more difficult given
the offensive line issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When Coach Satterfield was hired none of that remained other
than a couple of pieces from a middle of the road AAC offensive line… that now
needed to compete in the Big 12.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
offense was cobbled together from the portal with a journeyman 6<sup>th</sup>
year QB, transfer wide receivers, and some transfer lineman who either played
at low level schools or didn’t start for their P5 programs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are 10 new starters on that side of the
football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The staff did an admirable job fielding a semi-competent offense
that ranks very similar to last year’s offense, despite last year’s offense
having 4 NFL skill guys (something this group is missing).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t like to rip on the guys that chose to
be here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They aren’t bad, there are just
no true difference makers among them, and that has made things really difficult
for one enormous reasons (and another smaller, but related one).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: red;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">This team can’t seem
to make any chunk plays.</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Everything is hard for this offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To score, they need to sustain long drives,
with a middle of the AAC caliber offensive line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until this past week, they managed to sustain
those drives but not finish enough with touchdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Going into last week UC led the nation in
first downs and were a top 15 team in yards per game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite some major talent liabilities they
were moving the ball.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you are looking for positive signs from this coaching
staff in year 1 that is the biggest one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Last year’s team had similar deficiencies at offensive line and qb.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, last year’s team was pretty
terrible at sustaining drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However,
last year’s team made up for it because it had NFL players at wide receiver and
tight end that could turn a few of those 5 yard passes into 40 yard passes and
make big chunk plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact that this
year’s offense ranks similar in SP+ despite significantly lesser weapons to me
indicates that if the talent can get back to where it needs to be, the offense
could be really good in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Satterfield referenced it last week that the running backs
just aren’t the explosive guys that are going to get you those chunk plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s perhaps even truer of the wide
receivers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a tough combination that
requires the offense to be mistake free and nearly perfect in their execution
to score points…because they have to sustain long drives over many plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think the wide receivers and running backs
are solid players, but they aren’t difference makers that can stretch the field
and make the defense respect their ability to make big plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Basically, I think the staff has done a good job of scheming
yards with long drives, despite having a mid-tier AAC offensive line and no
playmakers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But without the big plays
one mistake and the drives stall without points (or with 3 instead of 7).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That also gets into the other issue which is
redzone scoring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For me the redzone
scoring issues come down to two big things.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The offensive line doesn’t move people so when
the field condenses and the schemed/manufactured yards go away, we don’t have
an answer.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Our skill guys aren’t able to create separation
in tight spaces.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That combination has been the biggest issues I’ve seen all
season long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s been true in every
game except this past weekend against Iowa State when UC couldn’t move the ball
at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So let’s talk about that
disaster.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">Iowa State may have
just been a really bad matchup for UC (which was compounded by UC’S big
mistakes).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The great folks at Bearcatjournal alluded to this even before
the game and it played out how some of the fears from the pregame coverage
thought.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Iowa State is a borderline
elite defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rank 12<sup>th</sup>
in SP+ adjusted defense, and their secondary in particular is excellent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you are going against an elite (or near
elite) unit, sometimes talent is the only answer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bearcat fans should be familiar with this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sonny Dykes is viewed around the sport as a
pretty elite game planner and offensive schemer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2021 and 2022 he had a couple very
prolific offenses that even featured some NFL talent at wide receiver. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2021, the Bearcat defense held its starting
QB to 66 yards on 26 passes, and held SMU scoreless for 3 quarters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2020 the Bearcat defense held them to 13
points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To some degree I think this is
what UC ran into on Saturday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was
the best defense UC will see all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The wide receivers couldn’t get separation and the offensive line couldn’t
block them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TheY dared UC to beat them
over the top, or make someone miss in space and UC never could.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Iowa State on offense is a big play dependent team that
struggles sustaining drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course,
the Uc defense has struggled at preventing the Big play all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this case, a few of the big plays came on
special teams meltdowns that really hurt, but Iowa State still managed some big
down field passes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And perhaps most
frustrating when UC got the stops the needed, theY either committed a penalty
(a really weAk Roughing the Passer was a tough one) or allowed a successful Fake
fg, or had some other breakdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Saturday was bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
was bad in many aspects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it also may
have been a particularly bad matchup for this team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">Transition Seasons
are hard.</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; mso-background-themecolor: background1;"><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">That’s
what I titled this post initially, but it bears repeating.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this is not a normal transition
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Uc is not only navigating a
coaching change, it is navigating massive roster turnover (particularly on
offense), and a significant increase in competition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Uc has transitioned coaches many times since
I’ve followed Uc football. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>let’s look at
those.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">Minter went 2-8-1 the year
after UC went 8-3.</span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Dantonio went 7-5 with maybe the most talented
front seven UC has had on defense (Trent Cole, Andre Frasier, Mike Wright,
Tyjaun Hagler all with long NFL careers) and senior year Gino Guidugli. That
team lost to an Army team that was on basically a 3 year winless streak at the
time. And had the most embarrassing UC loss of my lifetime at Louisville (70-7).</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">But
the most relatable season to this one might actually be Dantonio year 2, which
I’ll explain soon</b>)</span><br />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Brian Kelly handled the transition best.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d argue he easily had the best combination
of returning talent and roster stability (and he was our best coach…let’s not
kid ourselves). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dantonio’s last team
played a loaded schedule and held up well, despite being relatively young.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kelly jumped into a program ready to roll. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, even he lost back to back games to
Kragthorp and Weinstandt.</span></span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Butch Jones inherited a team that ran the table
the prior regular season that had a ton of talent back and managed to guide
them to a 4-8 campaign.</span></span></span></span> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Tommy Tuberville had a 9-4 campaign, that in a vacuum looks
fine, but he also inherited a great situation from a roster standpoint.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All those players were recruited to play in a
BCS conference and now got to play an AAC schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you’re judging Tommy by year 1 you might
have been somewhat encouraged, but it’s another reason we can’t overreact to
year 1.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Luke Fickell went 4-8 and was very close to 1-11.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That Miami win in particularly came at the
helping of one of the most epic, choke jobs I’ve ever seen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Other than Brian Kelly’s first year, I remember many fans
being pissed at the coaching in every one of those seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because that’s all many fans seem to know
when things go wrong… blame the coach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>My point isn’t that Satterfield will work out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My point is it is way too early to make any
kind of judgment in that regard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His
success will depend on his ability to bring in and develop talent (like every
coach that takes a job).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is just
impossible to have any idea of that in year 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">The last time we
jumped from a middle of the road conference to a power conference year 1 was a
lot worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The season that keeps coming back into my head when I watch
this team is not actually Dantonio’s first year… it’s his second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dantonio’s first year he had a really
talented senior class and a ton of roster stability and he had a decent enough
season (though a couple huge low points and he probably underachieved relative
to that talent).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But year 2 had a lot of
similarities to this one in terms of the roster issues and the jump in
competition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s because UC lost nearly all its best players
that offseason at the same time UC made the jump to the Big East.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Bearcats went 4-7 in their inaugural Big East
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These were their losses:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Penn State 42-24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Miami (OH) 44-16 (Yikes!)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Pitt 38-20<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Louisville 46-22<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">West Virginia 38-0<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At South Florida 31-16<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Rutgers 44-9<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Bearcats weren’t only losing to everyone in front of
them, they were getting destroyed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t
think the roster was in as bad a shape this time around, so things have looked
better (even if the record is similar).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think the front seven on defense has been Big 12 caliber from day 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think the transfer portal allowed Uc to at
least have back tier Big 12 type guys at the skill positions and even QB…but Uc
has no big 12 level difference makers on offense, has an AAC offensive line,
and a secondary that isn’t Big 12 ready.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Uc is struggling with those issues.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And Uc isn’t think only team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The four teams making the leap from the AAC
to the Big 12 have combined for one win over the Big 12 teams that were already
in the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That win was courtesy
of a Hail Mary for Houston at home against WVU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>All three of those teams are in the middle of extended periods of
coaching and roster stability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They aren’t
replacing their entire coaching staff and starting 10 new offensive players,
most of which were not on the roster last year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These kind of jumps almost always come with growing pains (see TCU and
Utah back in the day).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When they are
combined with huge roster issues and a brand new coaching staff… well use some
common sense.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The National Media, Vegas, and the Big 12 media all saw
these issues coming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC was picked 13<sup>th</sup>
out of 14 in the Big 12.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their over/under
from vegas was 4.5 wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This wasn’t an
accident.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The roster issues were
evident.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not always coaching when
things don’t go your way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately,
the best coaches are going to struggle when there are major talent deficiencies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What level of coach is Satterfield?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And I wasn’t going to know one way or the other this season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they’d struck gold on their secondary and
offensive line transfers and this team was 4-2 instead of 2-4, I would have just
as little of a clue about what it meant for the long term future of the
program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Transition seasons almost
always tell us very little.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until
Satterfield has had time to recruit and develop players over multiple season,
we just won’t know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But this season was bound to be hard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fans can have collective amnesia and pretend
that their issues have to be coaching related, but I will remember past
transitions…understand that the circumstances of this one are probably the
hardest any Uc coach has had to deal with in year 1, and reserve judgment on
the future of the program until the coach is given time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-65175986818750284002023-07-24T08:49:00.001-04:002023-07-24T08:49:09.526-04:00Vote No on Issue One, A Corrupt, Government Power Grab at the Expense of Ohio Voters<p> Issue One is a corrupt, government power grab at the expense of Ohio voters. Vote No.</p><p><br /></p><p>Since 1912, Ohio law has allowed Ohio voters to amend the Constitution. The process is already one of the most onerous in the country. Five percent of Ohio Voters in 44 of the 88 counties must sign initiatives to get the amendments on the ballot then a majority of voters must pass the amendment in a general election. Not surprisingly, Ohio voters have responsibly used this process for more than a century, often to address government overreach and corruption. Corrupt, Ohio politicians now seek to further consolidate government power over Ohio voters by enacting a process that would effectively kill the citizen led amendment process. Ohio voters must reject this government power grab and vote no. </p><p><br /></p><p>Ohio voters have successfully used this process to place limits on Ohio’s ability to tax voters. When Ohio voters grew concerned that their property taxes were being raised to support government spending, voters placed limits on the governments’ ability to raise their property taxes without voter approval. Because of this restriction, politicians now come to the voters seeking their permission when they want to raise property taxes (in the form of school levies, police and fire levies, etc.). Ohio voters also successfully used this process to eliminate taxes on food. Ohio voters saw fit to protect their money when politicians failed to do so and were able to because of the process corrupt politicians now seek to destroy.</p><p><br /></p><p>In recent years, Ohio voters have used the initiative process to create a nonpartisan redistricting process. Corrupt legislators have actually ignored this process, repeatedly creating illegal districts the courts strike down, and are fearful Ohio voters will attempt to use the initiative process to prevent this continued illegal conduct in the future. Ohio voters have used the process to approve Casinos in the state, which has resulted in additional tax revenue. Ohio voters have also used the process to add constitutional protections for victims of crime. </p><p><br /></p><p>Perhaps just as importantly, Ohio voters have rejected amendments when they have catered to specific outside interests. In 2015, a group of investors, many outside Ohio, sought to legalize marijuana use. The initiative catered to those specific investors to potentially create a monopoly for the investors in the commercial sale of marijuana. The measure was soundly rejected by 65% of Ohio voters, despite the legalization of marijuana generally polling much higher. Despite what issue one advocates would have you believe, Ohio voters have recognized outside influence and acted responsibly to reject it. This responsible use of the initiative process is consistent throughout its history in Ohio. Voters know what they are voting for, but corrupt politicians fear it because they don’t want voters to have power over them.</p><p><br /></p><p>Issue 1 would have no chance of passing in a normal election, so corrupt Ohio politicians are trying to pass it when voters aren’t paying attention. Ohio law forbids August elections for that reason…August elections don’t produce a normal sample of the electorate. These corrupt politicians have specifically written in a carve out for this ballot initiative, because they know Ohio voters would reject it and are hoping to jam it through when you are not paying attention. Of course, it would only require a majority vote…as would any politician-passed initiative in the future. It is only your power over them that corrupt politicians seek to eliminate. </p><p><br /></p><p>Don’t let them. Issue One is a corrupt, government power grab at the expense of Ohio voters. Vote No.</p><div><br /></div>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-44251211137750519782023-02-09T12:32:00.004-05:002023-02-09T12:33:54.800-05:00Why I Think Wes Miller Will Bring UC Back<p>I've seen many Bearcat fans who are very down on this team and Wes Miller in general. I understand the longing for Bearcat Basketball to immediately get back to the Huggins Glory Years, or even the sustained success of the Mick Cronin era, but I think that longing has blinded too many to the strides this team is making. It's year 2 of the Wes Miller era. He hasn't achieved enough to know whether he's the guy. <span style="background-color: black; color: white;"> <span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">However, I will admit to being optimistic about the direction the program is heading under Wes. Here is why I see more reasons for optimism than many seem to.</span></span></p><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">1. The UC basketball program was in a very bad place when Wes took over. Fans have not considered this factor nearly enough. UC finished 116 kenpom in Brannen's last year. Keith Williams (By far UC's best player that season) was gone. Tari Easton (by far UC's most talented player that season) was gone. 3 guys that had given real minutes were on the roster (JD, DDJ, and MAW). Wes took the job very late in the game. We weren't significantly better positioned than Mick when he took over and this time we didn't have the Big East...or a decade and a half of being a top 10 basketball program to sell recruits on. This was an uphill battle.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">2. The jump in quality of play they've made from the last two seasons to this one is substantial. Too many are underselling this. And the key guys on the roster this year are largely the same. A Bearcat fan friend expressed concerns about "same guy syndrome" coming into this season. The core of this team is largely the same as last year except we lost our two centers and replaced them with Vik (who wasn't ready the year before), lost our best wing defender to injury, and added Nolley.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 13px;">This team as of right now has jumped 50 spots in kenpom from last year's team. That is an enormous jump. Here is the climb UC made Mick's first 5 years via kenpom:</span></span></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Year 1: 141 kenpom (11-19 overall)</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Year 2: 102 kenpom (13-19 overall)</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Year 3: 86 kenpom (18-14 overall)</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Year 4: 68 kenpom (19-16 overall)</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Year 5: 21 kenpom (26-9 overall) - this was the big jump. The breakthrough we were waiting for.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">When you evaluate rebuilds, it's really silly to not consider where you are coming from...and look at improvements. Yea...we'd all feel significantly better with more good wins. But the raise in quality of play, with largely the same team, is undeniable. </span><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold;">which brings me to my next point, and my biggest reason for optimism with Wes.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">3. The key players on this team have made </span><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold;">massive leaps</span><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;"> as basketball players. This is the player development and finding the right roles for guys aspect that has me very excited about Wes.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Vik was largely lost last season. We could see the talent, but the feel wasn't there. Vik has been exceptional this season. Wes has him understanding how to play off screens and play downhill on offense. He has him with a better feel in the post of when to attack and when to anticipate the double team. He rarely turns it over, he's an elite rebounder, and he is hitting 62% of his shots. On defense, he has cut down on his silly fouls, while still being incredibly disruptive and a damn good help defender. His jump is a testament to him and the good coaching he has received.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">DDJ has become an efficient offensive player. His inefficiency on offense was often a major detriment to the Bearcats the last two years despite his skill. This year he has a 114.2 kenpom offensive rating (all three key guys are that or higher). He's done it by taking fewer bad shots (he still takes some) and playing to his facilitation skills. He has the highest assist rate on the team (and the 92nd-best in the country)..and that has gotten better as the season has gone on. He's just so much better now.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Likewise Nolley has become a far more efficient player. He could always shoot, but at Memphis he was a barely above average offensive player once you factored in turnovers and shot selection. He's taking better shots, he's turning it over lessand he has career highs in rebound rate. Dude was a great talent who has taken his game to a new level here.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">JD is having a really bad shooting year, but despite that, his offensive rating is exactly what it has been. That's because he has been better in nearly every aspect of his game. His turnover rate is the lowest it has ever been (it's the 50th best in the country). He's doubled his assist rate from last season. He's not forcing nearly as many bad shots (though as we all know, JD is still JD and we wish he'd be better). He's a flawed player, but Wes has done a good job minimizing his flaws.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">I think he's maximized the effectiveness of MAW and Ody as well. These aren't guys that ideally you'd have to play major minutes, but we do and do so effectively.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 13px;">4. Closely related to that, Wes has shown an ability to adapt on the fly with his team. If you read anything Chad Brendel was reporting on from the preseason, he said this team was going to really struggle to defend and rebound. That was absolutely the case early (particularly defend...they mostly rebounded OK other than the OSU and Temple games). Wes tweaked what they did in late November/early December. Their defensive numbers have been climbing rapidly ever since. They've been a top-20 defense since December 1. Up until the second half of the Tulane game (played without their only real rim protector), they were elite at protecting the rim while also running teams off the 3-point line. They are a very good offensive and defensive rebounding team (again with Vik..going to be interesting to see how they adjust without him). Their significant improvement and adapting within the season is very encouraging to me.</span></span></span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">5. He's doing work on the recruiting trail and seems to be opening some doors to making a bigger leap in the future.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">I'm not asking fans to give him a full 5 years like Mick had before making the tournament. There are some opportunities to improve more quickly now... but here's the thing. He has been improving more quickly. 50 spots in kenpom is a big leap (and they've honestly been much better than that since early December). If the trend continues, the results we're looking for will come.</span><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 13px;">Maybe the trend doesn't continue. Maybe he won't be the guy. But what I have seen so far does have me optimistic.</span></span>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-88283949398109098082022-03-13T16:12:00.003-04:002022-03-13T16:12:25.075-04:00Final Bracket Prediction<br /><p class="MsoNormal">1 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><b>Kansas,
Gonzaga</b>, Arizona, Baylor</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">2 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><b>Tennessee</b>,
Duke, <b>Villanova</b>, Kentucky</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">3 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Auburn,
Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">4 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Texas
Tech, Iowa, Illinois, Providence</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">5 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Houston,
Arkansas, UConn, Seton Hall</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">6 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>St.
Marys, <b>Boise State</b>, Memphis, USC</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">7 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><b>Murray
St., </b>San Diego State, Texas, LSU</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">8 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Colorado
State, Creighton, Marquette, Iowa State</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">9 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Ohio
State, Alabama, <b>Loyola Chicago</b>, Davidson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">10 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>TCU,
North Carolina, <b>Virginia Tech</b>, Wyoming, </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">11 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Miami
(Fl), San Francisco, Rutgers, SMU/Indiana</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">12 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Texas
A&M/Wake Forest, <b>Chattanooga</b>, <b>UAB, New Mexico State</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">13 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Richmond</b>,
<b>Vermont, South Dakota State, Cal State Fullerton</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">14 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Delaware,
Georgia State, St Peters, Akron</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">15 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Yale,
Jacksonville State, Longwood, Montana State</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">16 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Colgate,
Norfolk State, Bryant / TX A&M CC</b>, <b>Texas Southern/Wright State</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Last 4 in:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Texas
A&M, SMU, Indiana, Wake Forest</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">First 5 Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Michigan,
Xavier, Oklahoma, BYU, Notre Dame</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most likely to be wrong about:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Notre Dame…I don’t see how they have a
tournament resume, but I seem to be in the minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Team I think is more comfortably in than others seem
to:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wyoming.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b> </b></p>
Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-41459695869065387962022-03-12T23:05:00.003-05:002022-03-12T23:05:32.916-05:00First Bracket Prediction 2022<p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">1 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><b>Kansas,
Gonzaga</b>, Arizona, Baylor</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">2 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Tennessee,
Duke, Villanova, Kentucky</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">3 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Auburn,
Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">4 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Texas
Tech, Iowa, Illinois, Providence</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">5 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Houston,
Arkansas, UConn, Seton Hall</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">6 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>St.
Marys, <b>Boise State</b>, Memphis, USC</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">7 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><b>Murray
St., </b>San Diego State, Texas, LSU</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">8 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Colorado
State, Creighton, Marquette, Iowa State</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">9 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Ohio
State, Alabama, <b>Loyola Chicago</b>, Davidson</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">10 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>TCU,
North Carolina, <b>Virginia Tech</b>, Wyoming, </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">11 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Miami
(Fl), San Francisco, Rutgers, Texas A&M</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">12 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>SMU/Michigan,
Indiana/Wake Forest, <b>Chattanooga</b>, <b>UAB</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">13 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>New
Mexico State, <b>Vermont, South Dakota State, </b>Princeton</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">14 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Long
Beach State, <b>Delaware, Georgia State, St Peters</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">15 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Akron,
Jacksonville State, Longwood, Montana State</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">16 Seeds<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Colgate,
Norfolk State, Bryant / </b>TX A&M CC, <b>Texas Southern/Wright State</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Last 4 in:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SMU,
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Oklahoma, BYU, Notre Dame</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most likely to be wrong about:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Notre Dame…I don’t see how they have a
tournament resume, but I seem to be in the minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Team I think is more comfortably in than others seem
to:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wyoming</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b> </b></p>
Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-91580745385586675952022-03-12T21:39:00.005-05:002022-03-12T22:07:54.713-05:00Ranking the Bubble 2022<p> Here's my bubble rankings... I included Creighton who actually is probably higher than some teams not on my bubble at this point, but I had already done most of their write-up before their Big East run. Everyone above this list I think will definitely be in the tournament. The list goes from most likely to make it to least likely to make it. Assuming Davidson wins the Atlantic 10, Michigan is my last team in the field.</p><p> </p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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</p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">Ranking the Bubble</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Creighton- When I started this I wasn’t sure they would make
it, but the trip to the Big East tournament championship probably makes them a
lock at this point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 7-5 Q1 and
4-4 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They swept UConn, beat Nova at
home and have a neutral court win over Providence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were 3-0 against Marquette.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Really their only issue is they were swept by
bubble Xavier, but they gap between those teams is so big at this point it
really doesn’t matter.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Davidson- You hope the committee rewards a team like
this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>24-5 overall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>5-4 vs. Q1/Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>13-5 q1 through Q3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have had a neutral court win over
Alabama (who will make the tournament) and a road win over bubble VCU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 9-2 on the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The A10 is a good conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This resume should be enough.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">TCU- Right behind Davidson in NET, but a completely
different kind of resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They went 8-10
in the loaded Big 12 (every team is top 75).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>5-7 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 13-11 Q1 through Q3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A couple of those are elite wins, beating Kansas and Texas Tech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We also shouldn’t downplay the win at Hilton
against Iowa State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ve probably
done enough as well.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">North Carolina- The Duke win likely put them over the
top.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>5-7 Q1/Q2 record is iffy, but 16-0
Q2/Q3 is going to help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They played a
pretty strong schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won at Duke
and at VT for their 2 Q1 wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not
an overly impressive resume, but there isn’t too much bad on it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their win at Cameron should be enough to get
them in the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Wyoming- The weakest resume of the 4 potential Mountain West
bids, but honestly, it’s a tournament worthy resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4-4 Q1 is better than most the bubble and
they combine that with a 6-1 Q2 record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None
of their Q1 wins are tier 1 type wins (their best is probably home against
Colorado State and Boise State), but it’s a reasonably strong resume and the
kind the committee should and likely will reward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">San Francisco- Likely not in as good of shape as their 25
NET ranking would let you believe, but a team that should sneak in the field
nonetheless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3-6 Q1 isn’t great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>6-2 Q2 is fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Combined 14-8 against Q1-Q3 is going to be
better than much of the lesser bubble teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Of course they did a lot of their damage against 1 bubble team
(BYU).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They do have a nice neutral court
win against Davidson and are 7-2 on the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Miami (Fl)- Remember not to overvalue the actual NET ranking
(Miami sits at 61).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s the strength of
wins and losses that ultimately get a team in the field (even if the committee
doesn’t always evaluate that properly).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Miami is 4-3 in Q1 games which is going to look good compared to the
rest of the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That 5-4 Q2 record
isn’t hurting them either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won at
Duke, at bubble teams Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, as well as a neutral site
win over North Texas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have home
wins over bubble teams UNC and Wake Forest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They also beat Wake on the road which probably puts them above Wake in
the pecking order.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Virginia Tech- The trip the ACC Championship game just might
do the trick.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are only 2-5 Q1 and
6-5 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they are really strong in
the predictive metrics, so strong that I think it will and should make a
difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2 wins over bubble Notre
Dame and a recent neutral court win over UNC should help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite only going 11-9 in the ACC, I think
they have a better version of the Notre Dame resume (unbalanced schedules can
make for wonky conference results).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rutgers – The lowest NET team that has a shot at the
tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were abysmal in the
nonconference (and it was an abysmal nonconference schedule).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, they went 12-8 in a loaded big
ten.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were 6-6 against Q1 teams at
that included wins over Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their road record is pretty bad (4-9) but
those wins are over Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Maryland.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they’ll find a spot at the end of the
bracket.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Texas A&M- Probably out before the SEC tournament, but I
suspect they played their way to the right side of the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4-9 Q1 but 5-0 Q2 for a respectable 9-9 Q1/Q2
record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 5-5 on the road and did
some damage in neutral site games getting Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC
tournament as well as a nice win over Notre Dame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The more I look at their resume, the more I
think they have done enough.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">SMU- Their predictive metrics and resume metrics mostly look
like a tournament team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they
should be in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 2-2 Q1 and 4-4
Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s not a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and
the committee typically penalizes teams that get fat on Q3/Q4 teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their nonconference SOS of 273 won’t do them
any favors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have 2 wins over
Memphis and a win over Houston.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’d
hope that would carry some weight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
also have a win over Dayton who will be close to the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I kind of think they’ll sneak in, but wouldn’t
be surprised if they didn’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Indiana- They weren’t a tournament team prior to the big ten
tournament, the question now is, did they do enough?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’re 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s a cut line style resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of their Q1 losses are upper tier Q1
losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a win over Purdue and
a neutral court win over Illinois.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their
neutral court win over Notre Dame could come in handy if they are among the
last couple teams considered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Wake Forest- They have a really iffy resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1-4 against Q1, 4-3 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their best wins are road VT, and home against
UNC and Notre Dame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is an end of
the bracket team or a team that just misses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Michigan- Only 5-10 against Q1 and 3-3 against Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much credit will the committee give to
playing a ton of Q1 games, when you lose a bunch of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The home win over Purdue is great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So is the home win of San Diego State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a couple nice road scalps as well,
beating OSU and Indiana.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ll
probably be right at the cutline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Xavier-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you took
their resume and shook it up, spreading everything over the course of the season
evenly you may feel better about it (which is why they could still sneak
in).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2 (so under
.500 Q1/Q2) and have a couple Q3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The sweep
of Creighton is nice and the neutral site win over Virginia Tech could carry
some weight against another bubble team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are a cutline type team that really depends on how committed the
committee is to the entire body of work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If there is any eye test for the team they are now, they are going to be
left out. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Oklahoma- 18-15 is going to be tough to get past, but the
Big 12 is unbelievably deep and really tough at the top.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite those losses they sit 39 NET.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They just beat Baylor, who could be a 1 seed,
have a win over Texas Tech and beat Arkansas on a neutral floor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 4-12 against Q1 teams and 6-2 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a marginal resume and probably too many
losses but they could sneak in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">BYU- Another team at the end of the bracket, that I’m
skeptical did enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
definitely behind San Francisco in the pecking order.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The home St Marys win is great, but other
than that there isn’t quite enough there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The loss to Pacific hurts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d be
fine if they got in above a Michigan type team that has more but also had a ton
more opportunities to get there, but I think they are more likely to be just
outside.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Notre Dame-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
honestly don’t see how you can put this team in the tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Kentucky win is great and the win at
Miami is nice, but this team is 4-9 in Q1/Q2 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They got fat against bad teams going 17-1 in
Q3/Q4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also have 3 neutral court
losses to teams that will be near the cutline (Virginia Tech, Indiana, and
Texas A&M).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have to think that
carries some weight when the committee tries to evaluate the end of the
bracket.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They went 15-5 in the ACC so maybe
the committee will value that, but when you did deep this team doesn’t have a
tournament resume.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dayton- Their case really comes down to how much the
committee cares about bad losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dayton
has 3 really bad ones (3 losses to teams 248 and below in NET) and a loss to
NET 226 on the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those losses really
get in the way of a lot of good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their
3-2 in Q1 games and those wins are Kansas (neutral), Virginia Tech (Home) and
VCU (road).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 6-5 in Q2 games
including wins over tournament teams Miami (fl) and Davidson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their Q1/Q2 record and wins is going to be
better than most the bubble, but those bad losses are a huge anchor on the resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The committee mostly values your wins more
than your losses so I could see Dayton sneaking in, but bubble teams don’t
usually have bad losses to this level and ultimately I think it will keep them
out.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">VCU-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have the
opposite problem of Dayton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They did
great against the bad teams but don’t have enough good wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 3-3 against Q1 teams (fine) but only
3-5 against Q2 teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mid major teams
really need to be over .500 against Q1/Q2 to give themselves a chance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they are out.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">UAB- They made their conference championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They sit 49 NET (and right around there in
the predictive metrics).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are only
4-3 Q1/Q2 and racked up 12 Q4 wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
typically doesn’t cut it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">North Texas- Similar resume to UAB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 6-4 against Q1/Q2, so there is a
little more, but they have 11 Q4 wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Probably not enough. </p>
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<![endif]--> </p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-36638886113865084372022-02-10T09:05:00.003-05:002022-02-10T09:19:31.652-05:00My Dad and the 2002 Cincinnati Bearcats<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEij6IA0oou6JT-k_SeLGWMOo9P8XGjG3FBnayHsvWMUiT6mOgM85h1rY1XxceEQuIGzsBdGVj3ZUDyEBluZmctopf0HNJZb15O8KOky6zpt4_tX73NkjK9mNwdvLEgeDtj9ZBq6PQevNAiUH58IB_kitfYWrjbkE20fu8X5GfnQCCdRfAsA1taCDbRw=s1020" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="1020" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEij6IA0oou6JT-k_SeLGWMOo9P8XGjG3FBnayHsvWMUiT6mOgM85h1rY1XxceEQuIGzsBdGVj3ZUDyEBluZmctopf0HNJZb15O8KOky6zpt4_tX73NkjK9mNwdvLEgeDtj9ZBq6PQevNAiUH58IB_kitfYWrjbkE20fu8X5GfnQCCdRfAsA1taCDbRw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">In December 2001, my parents told me that my dad had maybe a
month to live.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’d been fighting a
battle with large mouth throat cancer for nearly 5 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The battle had some ups and surely a lot of
downs, but my dad did his best to hide the latter from my sister and me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Christmas came and went, not much
seemed to change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My dad wasn’t working
anymore, but I was still able to spend time with him and he seemed fine all
things considered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To my parents’ credit
they made life as normal as it could be for my sister and me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’d be out with friends often, living our
lives like everyone else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We entered
February, the conversation about my dad having maybe a month to live drifted to
the back of my mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Time is a funny thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s been twenty years since I lost my
dad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember so much about him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember how he made me feel, what he cared
about, how much he loved our family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
remember his love of song lyrics, the way he laughed and joked with his best
friend and his love of the ocean.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So
many things, so easily come to mind, but conversations, few of those
remain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How do you remember individual
conversations? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Sunday,
February 10, 2002 was the last conversation I had with my dad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was in his room, where he spent much of
his time late in life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I had no idea it
would be our last conversation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Truthfully, it felt like any other... but I remember it, nonetheless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember because the 2002 Bearcats were at
the center of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Cincinnati Bearcats lost a road game at Oklahoma State to open the 2001-2002
season then proceeded to run off 20 straight wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In those 20 games they accumulated 10 wins
over kenpom top 100 teams, including a 22 point win over #42 Dayton, a 34 point
win over #26 Mississippi State, a 23 point win over #40 Charlotte, and a 20
point win at the Cintas Center against #23 Xavier (still the last Bearcat win
at Cintas).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the streak ended against
Dwyane Wade at Marquette.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats had a difficult schedule still ahead of them and with CUSA probably at
its talent and coaching peak, winning the conference was suddenly a more
daunting proposition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Marquette loss
was the first of a 3-game road trip against NCAA tournament teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cincinnati recovered nicely at Charlotte
winning by 19 in an arena where they always seemed to struggle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then they went to play a rare, late season
nonconference game against Wake Forest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wake
Forest was coached by Skip Process and led by future NBA starter Josh Howard
and Darius Songaila.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would be a
great test for a team fighting for high seed in the tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the time Wake was ranked 16<sup>th</sup>
in the country coming off a 90-66 win over UNC (completing their first sweep of
North Carolina in 32 years).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a
big game.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And the
Bearcats were up for it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Huggins’
teams were known for their defense, this Cincinnati team could be incredibly
explosive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Steve Logan scored 30 and had
7 assists, while the Bearcats put up 61 second half points in beating Wake
Forest 103 to 94.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was an up and down,
thrilling basketball game (one that I’d love to watch again if anyone can find
it).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After watching the game, I remember
thinking, damn this Bearcat team is for real and hoping that maybe, just
maybe…this would be their year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My dad
wasn’t so sure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He never was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course, looking back at history he was
right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t remember where I was that
Saturday night, surely, I was at some friend’s house, but Sunday night I went
into my dad’s room to talk and the one part of the conversation I remember to
this day was about the Bearcats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
talked about how well they played.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was
optimistic they could win the league again and get a high seed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I raved about Logan and Imac.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My dad didn’t think they quite had enough and
figured something would go wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I laugh thinking about it, because
the conversation was so true to the often-pessimistic way he watched (and
listened) to games (he was a worrier, one of the few traits I managed not to
inherit from him).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember coming
home from somewhere during the UC at Wyoming game in 1994.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC was down 9 with like a minute and a half
to play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were almost home, but my dad
couldn’t listen for one more second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
turned off the radio over my vocal, 9-year-old, objections.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As soon as we pulled into the driveway I
burst out of the car, ran into the house and turned on the TV.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was just in time to see The Gunslinger get
fouled shooting a 3 and hit the winning free throws.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I missed his crazy run of points to put them
in position to win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L8MpwryHvbk" width="320" youtube-src-id="L8MpwryHvbk"></iframe></div><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">8 years later we were in his room
talking about another Bearcat basketball team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>My optimism about the team contrasting with his worried thoughts about
what could go wrong for them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know we
talked about other things that night, but the Bearcats is what I remember.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was such a normal conversation, but
probably for that reason, such a special memory.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
2002 Bearcats are my favorite UC team of my lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know the 2000 team was more dominant
(though fans probably don’t appreciate how dominant the 2002 was…we’ll get to
this), but I loved the way this team played basketball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And I think it’s special to me in another
way…a deeply personal way.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">My dad passed away on February 14,
2002.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was 52 years old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>February 14 was a Thursday, but everything
turned on a Monday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the time I was
told my dad may have a month to live until Monday February 11, nothing really
changed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then I came home from school
and my mom told me that my dad’s body was breaking down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He could pass away any day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">My dad rested in his room,
unconscious, unable to respond the next three days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His brother came up from North Carolina to be
with the family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My dad seemed at peace,
but there was no hope of him coming back around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all knew this was it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Despite
five years of knowing it could happen and despite the warning three months
prior that he might not make it through the year, the sudden impact of the loss
of your father is impossible for me to describe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the days after my dad passed, I did my
best to go on living my life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was out
with friends; I went to work that weekend and I attended two of my all-time
favorite Bearcat basketball games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats hosted Dwyane Wade’s Marquette team knowing a conference championship
could be at stake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game took place
on a Friday night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I went with one of my
best friends to this day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our seats
ended up being behind a row of Marquette fans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats came out white hot early, building a 20-4 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that lead evaporated just as quickly with
Marquette tying it at 24.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cincinnati expanded
the lead to 10 before the half but again Marquette responded taking the lead
early in the second half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It was
a battle throughout the second half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Every possession intense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Shoe was rocking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The lead changed back
and forth, but with 1:16 to play the Bearcats found themselves on the brink of
defeat down 4 points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Logan responded,
like he did all season, hitting a pull up 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Marquette answered right back with a two of their own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC again found themselves down 4, this time
with 30 seconds left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But Logan pushed
the ball up court, crossing his man up (with the slightest Jordan shove) to the
point his man fell on his ass and Logan knocked down a 3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>24 seconds left and the lead was one.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UC
fouled Wade, who missed the front end of the one and one with a raucous
Shoemaker Center doing everything it could to will the miss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the upper deck I was ready for some more
Steve Logan magic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’d been a force at
the end of games the last 2 seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There was nobody I trusted more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Huggins
let the possession play out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No timeout
was called.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But with 10 seconds left,
Logan gave the ball up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now Immanuel
McCelroy had it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Imac was a defensive
stalwart, who also had a knack for huge plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He dribbled it from the corner to the top of key and then tried to
attack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marquette defenders
converged.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He passed.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>With 6
seconds left the ball found the hands of Donald Little, 18 feet from the
basket.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was wide open, but he wasn’t
exactly the guy you wanted taking the huge shot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Little squared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Little elevated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Little released……………………………………………….Splash!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And the
Shoe went ballistic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Little had been
huge early in the game and came through with his biggest shot as a
Bearcat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats now had 3 seconds
to finish it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cincinnati didn’t guard
the inbounds, Marquette threw it to Henry who back rimmed a 40-footer at the
buzzer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I turned to celebrate with my
friend who was already running down to fake high five the row of Marquette fans
below us as they left. Cincinnati was now a game ahead of Marquette in the
conference.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0ESUwsdI-M4" width="320" youtube-src-id="0ESUwsdI-M4"></iframe></div><br /><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><br />#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>At some
point in 2002 the West Virginia job opened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Everyone knew they were going after Huggins and there were a lot of
rumors that he was going to take it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Amidst that backdrop, the 2002 Bearcats hosted Memphis, trying to close
out another outright Conference USA Championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A talented, but underachieving Calipari
coached team gave the Bearcats everything they could handle all afternoon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dejaun
Wagner and Steve Logan went back and forth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Memphis built an 8-point lead, but Logan just wouldn’t let it get beyond
that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats missed all 16 of
their threes, but Logan’s mid-range game could be fierce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again, the Bearcats found themselves trailing
late, needing some heroics to pull off another win.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I sat
in baseline/courtside seating for this game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At that time UC had desk seats behind the baseline on both sides of the
basket right next to where the cheerleaders sat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Down 2 late, UC needed to go the length of
the court.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They inbounded to Logan, and
he did just that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He ran toward me,
pulled up from around the foul line and buried it to force OT.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I cheered with the friend I took to the game,
then ran behind my seats giving high fives to the front row of students.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The place was as loud as I have ever heard
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Let’s talk about just how damn
great Steve Logan was in 2002.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’ve
read about some of his enormous shots in those two games, but Logan had the
best offensive season in modern Bearcat history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was a consensus first team all-American,
and frankly should have been National Player of the Year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had a 29.4% usage rate and took 30.7% of
his team’s shots when he was on the floor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite carrying that kind of offensive load, he had a ridiculous 60%
True Shooting Percentage, just bonkers for a guard, particularly for one his
stature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Taking 229 threes, many off the
dribble, he made 38% of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was 87%
from the line and perhaps most impressively 52% from 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everything was a good shot for Steve
Logan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he wasn’t just asked to
score, he facilitated everything.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had
a 32% assist rate (with only a 14.3% turnover rate).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He rarely fouled, constantly got fouled and
played nearly 85% of the minutes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He did
it all and a Bearcat offense with merely decent offensive talent outside of
Steve Logan was elite because of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">And he and his Bearcats found a way
to win in overtime against Memphis, clinching another conference championship
and keeping the dream of a 1 seed alive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Nobody wanted to leave.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We didn’t
know if this would be Huggins’ last home game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And as the Shoe went bonkers after the game, Huggins made it clear it
wouldn’t, coming back on the floor and telling the crowd he would be back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The place went bonkers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The Bearcats would roll through the
conference tournament, dump trucking South Florida (73 kenpom) 79-57, then
beating Charlotte and Marquette (both tournament teams) by 16 and 14,
respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This earned them a one
seed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In the
second round of the NCAA tournament UC drew an underachieving UCLA team that
was one of the most talented in the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UCLA had future NBA players, Matt Barnes, Jason Kapono, Dan Gadzuric and
Cedric Bozeman.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had several WTF
losses, but also had 9 wins over kenpom top 40 teams including a 1 seed
(Kansas), two 2 seeds (Oregon and Alabama) a 3 seed (Arizona) and a 4 seed
(Southern Cal).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And good UCLA showed up
that day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Frankly,
as talented as UCLA was (and they were the more talented team), Cincinnati was
the better team throughout.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it
seemed like every damn break went against them to keep UCLA in it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether it was Knight’s banked in 3 from the
corner or the late shot clock airball falling into Kapono’s lap, UC couldn’t
quite finish UCLA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game went to 2
OTs with UC having chances to win the game at the end of regulation and the
first OT, before UCLA pulled it out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
painful end, to an incredible season, made more so because it truly was one of
the only tournament losses I left the game thinking, “wow, we played a damn
good basketball game…and they still somehow beat us.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What
sucks about it, is that Bearcat team was absolutely positioned to have a chance
to win the National Championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
were viewed as the 4<sup>th</sup> best one seed going into the tournament and
the 2 seed in their region (Kelvin Sampson’s Oklahoma team) was viewed
basically as their equal, but the kenpom numbers actually suggest they were the
second-best team (ahead of the Maryland team that won it).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were balanced, 7<sup>th</sup> in adjust
offensive efficiency and 3<sup>rd</sup> in adjusted defensive efficiency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On offense they did everything well (64<sup>th</sup>
in EFG%, 12<sup>th</sup> in Turnover rate, 53<sup>rd</sup> in OFF Reb Rt, 92 in
FTA/FGA).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They shot well from 3, from 2
and from the foul line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On defense they
did everything well except forcing turnovers (where they were just
average).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were first in EFG% D, 59<sup>th</sup>
in DefRebRt and 40<sup>th</sup> in FTA/FGA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They didn’t give up many threes and were the best team in the country
defending from 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was a team that in
retrospect was even better than we realized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Still my favorite Bearcat team of my lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">#<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
after the loss to UCLA, I remembered my dad was right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Something went wrong, it always did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I still think I was right that they were good
enough to win the title, but good enough doesn’t always get you there, as
Bearcat basketball fans have learned over the years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But not only was that a great team, it was a
team that brought me pure joy during one of the hardest times of my life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Growing up I would go to UC
football and basketball games with my dad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We only had UC basketball season tickets a couple years (Wingfield’s
Freshman year then Fortson’s freshman year), but it was always a favorite
memory of mine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My dad worked at
UC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My mom, my sister and I would drive
to Kenwood mall to meet my dad then he and I would drive back down to Clifton
for the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d usually grab some
Chick-fil-a or Sbbaro before we headed down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">After my dad passed, that 2002 team
was the perfect escape, their brilliance capturing my attention game after
game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since then, Bearcat sports often
make me think of my dad, giving me a connection to him, long after I lost him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He went to grad school at UC, he worked at
UC, we attended games together at UC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
struggled with the after affects of his surgery in 1997 and many different
forms of treatment those last 5 years, but in those spurts where he felt good enough,
he still went back to work at UC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During
his Eulogy, his best friend noted that when he went back to work at the College
of Business his friends and colleagues stood by him as he struggled with the
debilitating side effects of his cancer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just another aspect of the university and its people I’ll always
love.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYYWMjCJaJOYAqoJCI_20ZfC2W0oJZxI1_WPbEthLCjtqAOFcD1K4OYzlsBvbamxLL0wxQnGuA0NRldAxMcOOV4fTi6oxNM7roceKEQnKDQyfROmBlHpszwQ_K53bpgyu0-EDHJpP4WY631aaJ6Uy_Rl_LMmYWP82pxBrdCbGuV-akMTxIw-3nm_vl=s1020" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="1020" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYYWMjCJaJOYAqoJCI_20ZfC2W0oJZxI1_WPbEthLCjtqAOFcD1K4OYzlsBvbamxLL0wxQnGuA0NRldAxMcOOV4fTi6oxNM7roceKEQnKDQyfROmBlHpszwQ_K53bpgyu0-EDHJpP4WY631aaJ6Uy_Rl_LMmYWP82pxBrdCbGuV-akMTxIw-3nm_vl=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The university has continued to
mean a ton to me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcat football
and Bearcat programs, especially so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This 2002 team above them all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">It’s been 20 years since I lost my
dad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My son now shares his name.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The world needed another Gary Raines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You never know what moments will stand out in
your mind when someone is gone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think
about what I’ll tell me kids about their grandfather they will never get to
meet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I want to tell them everything,
but I dread telling them too soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
worry about the questions that may come when I tell them about losing my
father. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">I think about him often, this time
of year more than most.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think of him
on holidays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think of him at the
beach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think of him when my kids do
something new, when I listen to a song with just the right lyrics, or when I’m
around his friends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I miss him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I wish my wife and children knew him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I’m grateful for the near 18 years we had
together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m thankful for the things he
taught me and the things we shared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m
thankful that during the most trying of circumstances he and my mom kept my
life as normal as possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">And I’m thankful we had that one last
conversation, without knowing what the next days would bring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I wish he’d been wrong, and the 2002 Bearcats
had gone the distance, but it’s probably appropriate he was right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How else could things have gone?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Memories are all I have left of my dad, but I
know the impact he made on me and continues to make on the family I am
raising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And though we’ll never actually
talk again, that one last conversation, will always be there too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhPio7C1uwQgsI9_HPo8Ab27toONmkK0sDXuMGMHHV_4rCw4XC73EW8FNa1LA9pdfktbJwWTIsQ6a55BBIlqvElmdh4-Pz33fnjt1kDPnwlU2vr4pavzjAG7P9TR1As1uRYz4wc3V1VfrHddKKgX8ZiEkFHPPKCpOJg3Df4CTLZFaxMSrAsb5lNzDLH=s1020" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1020" data-original-width="496" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhPio7C1uwQgsI9_HPo8Ab27toONmkK0sDXuMGMHHV_4rCw4XC73EW8FNa1LA9pdfktbJwWTIsQ6a55BBIlqvElmdh4-Pz33fnjt1kDPnwlU2vr4pavzjAG7P9TR1As1uRYz4wc3V1VfrHddKKgX8ZiEkFHPPKCpOJg3Df4CTLZFaxMSrAsb5lNzDLH=s320" width="156" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><br /><br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-40865036868244214522022-01-20T13:10:00.001-05:002022-01-20T13:17:18.969-05:00Fixing the Star Wars Prequels<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I’m doing a
treadmill rewatch of the Star Wars movies and just finished the prequel
trilogy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I didn’t misremember, the first
two are bad, but I was once again struck by how relatively good Revenge of the
Sith is, despite having to deal with the issues of the first two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sith manages to make Anakin and Palpatine’s
relationship completely believable and his turn makes complete sense in that
context.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It establishes his worrying
about Padme, his resentment of the Jedi Counsel, his fondness for Palpatine and
further resentment of what Counsel asks him to do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Palpatine preys on that by creating a
plausible set of alternative facts about the Jedi motives that play to Anakin’s
ego and offers an aspirational plan to bring peace to the galaxy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the backdrop of all this, is offering
Anakin hope for protecting Padme.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>All this was done well and yet,
it could have had so much more power if the prequels had been good movies that
built better to this conclusion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Phantom
Menace is a bad movie that has the bones of a decent story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attack of the Clones is a disastrous movie,
with a meandering plot we care little about and an awkward love story that is
completely unnatural in how it plays out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s to me one of the biggest failures in movie history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here’s how I think the Prequels should have
gone:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>The
Phantom Menace</b> (Episode 1)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Phantom Menace should have
been better as some of the broad structural ideas of the movie work well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the context of the series, this movie is
about the Jedi finding Anakin and choosing to teach him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s also about Palpatine emerging as a major
power player on the galactic scene and to a lesser extent creating the story of
how Anakin met Luke and Leia’s mother.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These are smart, reasonable, achievable goals to open a prequel
trilogy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result you can see the
bones of a movie that works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>However, the problems are
enormous:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jar Jar Binks and the Gungans as a whole are
horribly portrayed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jar Jar is basically
there for comic relief, but isn’t funny in the least.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Gungans seem moderately incompetent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea of this underwater civilization
being part of Naboo is fine and could have worked if they’d made any effort to
make that civilization believable and their participation in the story
matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin is too young.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He should be a teenager at the very
least.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would work better for the
Padme/Anakin relationship and it could produce a more complicated early
relationship with the Jedi, which I’ll explain in a minute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin should have more agency in the final
battle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His involvement shouldn’t be an
accident.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">New story:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Jedi are sent to Naboo to
convince the Trade Federation to make peace with Queen Amidala and the
Naboo.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They stumble into an invasion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The initial setup is fine).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Jedi sneak down to the planet rescue
Queen Amidala from the invading army (see we’re still good).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They end up on Tatooine and need a ship part
to get the Queen to Coruscant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Jedi discover a 16 year old Anakin,
a slave (and sure podracer that was fun enough).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Qui-Gon senses his strength in the force, his
instincts/the force tell him Anakin matters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Sure get into the prophecy…don’t run his blood for midichlorians.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Have
teen Anakin friendly and interested in the Jedi, but also questioning things
immediately like, “if the Jedi are so powerful and just, why are my mom and I
in slavery. Isn’t that something the Jedi should have eradicated?”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When Qui-Gon reveals he has
freed Anakin from bondage it shouldn’t just be a question about whether his mom
is going or not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin should be
arguing with the Jedi to take her.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
should be questioning why they can’t just free her, take her without consent of
the slave owner.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He should be forceful
that is what is right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And his mom
should convince him to go without her.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Also Padme should comfort him on the way to Coruscant and she should
also say she doesn’t understand why the Jedi can’t save his mother, but the
Jedi have their own way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></b>All
of that is important because we are setting up Anakin early on to be both in
awe of the Jedi and wanting to be a Jedi, but also to question why the Jedi do
things the way they do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’re giving
Anakin a reason to blame the Jedi when his mother dies in the next movie
(though not fully and not turn on them yet).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We are giving Anakin and Padme an important, tender moment when he can
see her on his side (it should not be romantic at this point).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And using their unwillingness to free
slaves, we’re giving him a reason to think his being powerful can do more good
than the Jedi down the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Going to Coruscant, most of what
happens there is fine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How Palpatine
becomes Chancellor is probably the biggest thing episode one got right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobody had to explain each of his maneuvers
but you could see how all the conflict had been put in place to benefit him and
you could see how nobody would have discovered him yet (this is a problem in
episode 2 that I’ll get into).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everything
is set up for Padme to go back and save the Naboo people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Padme reveals herself to the
Gungans (who again in the new movie would be portrayed as competent, different
kind of society, separate but a part of that world) and negotiates their
assistance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The end battle scene plays
out similarly but with 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Less comic
relief in the Gungan battle and 2. More agency from Anakin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Qui-Gon / Obi-Wan Darth Maul fight is
kind of perfect.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Leave it the way it
is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">Prior to the fight Qui-Gon tells Anakin to get the empty fighter and stay
there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin gets in but stubbornly
decides he can help more by flying the damn thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He fires it up, takes out some battle droids
in the hanger, then flies out to battle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Anakin senses what must be done to destroy the ship and stop the droid
army then executes it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">Now we have a movie that has:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .75in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Introduced us to Anakin, our tragic
protagonist who we know will turn.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .75in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Introduced Anakin to the Jedi, who take him
under their wing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .75in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Created a basis for resentment and shown that
Anakin already has reason to question how the Jedi operate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .75in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Adjusted the age to create a more compelling
relationship between Padme and Anakin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .75in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; margin: 0in 0in 0in 0.75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Kept the circumstances that work regarding
Palpatine and his first big steps toward becoming emperor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">We ditched
the flaws and brought forth the strengths and in doing so made The Phantom
Menace a very compelling movie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Attack of the Clones</b> (Episode 2)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Unlike The Phantom Menace,
Attack of the Clones is just an utter disaster from beginning to end, with
little redeeming about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">1. Its love story feels forced and contrived.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">2. The general plot doesn’t do enough to advance Anakin’s turn /
relationship with Palpatine <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The story makes the Jedi look
completely incompetent because they still are failing to recognize or even
really suspect that Palpatine could be a threat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dooku feels extraneous, like a
villain added to buy time for the Palpatine confrontation in the final
movie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The need to shoehorn in
Janga/Boba Fett felt like fan service to the fullest extent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">About the
only important development in Attack of the Clones is the creation of the clone
army and putting it in control of the senate / Palpatine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anyways, I have a thin outline of a movie I
think addresses these issues and properly builds toward Revenge of the Sith.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">New Story:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">The scroll discusses the ongoing war and toll it is taking on the
Republic’s resources.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many in the senate
are looking to end the war and are introducing a truce with the trade
federation for the Senate’s consideration (that has favorable terms for the
trade federation).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chancellor Palpatine
has suggested the purchase of a Clone army to lessen the toll on republic
soldiers and not give into the demands of the trade federation, but the Jedi
Council has grown concerned about Palpatine’s power and what this purchase
might mean…<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">This centers the story around Palpatine vs. the Jedi counsel, while
introducing the idea of the Clone Army from the jump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d start out with a scene between Anakin and
Palpatine where Palpatine is discussing the dangers of giving into the Trade
Federation demands.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe some points
that this will expand slavery in the fringes of the galaxy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin discussing how master Obi-Wan is
worried about more bloodshed and Palpatine stressing Jedi have their purpose,
but are often too indecisive to bring true peace to the galaxy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Palpatine asks for Anakin’s help bringing
Padme on board with rejecting the truce, stressing she could be the key, and
pointing out that Padme and Anakin have been friends since Naboo and she trusts
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin makes no promises, says he
must discuss it with Obi-Won.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">I envision a scene where Obi-Won and Anakin are discussing this and there
is an attack on Obi-Won’s life which we later find out was Palpatine trying to
get rid of the only Jedi Anakin fully and absolutely trusts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin saves him, as he has done many times
and they banter about how he always saves him. Obi-Won speaks to the counsel
about what Anakin told him, the counsel pushes Obi-Won to have Anakin spy on
Palpatine but Obi-Won knows Anakin and for this movie convinces them they
cannot ask that of him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jedi Counsel
sends Obi-Won to investigate the Clone Army believing Palpatine could be hiding
something.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin wants to go, but
Obi-Won tells him to be patient, await his return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He asks if Anakin will be seeing Padme.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anakin says yes, Obi-Won tells Anakin he
senses issues that could arise from that and to be careful, says the counsel
does not want him to take sides between Palpatine and the representatives
wanting a Truce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">Padme and Anakin’s relationship in this movie isn’t built on them hiding
away on Naboo but on their interactions regarding the Truce and real political
discussions that spark Padme’s curiosity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She confides in him about her concerns for the republic and the
consolidation of power under Palpatine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
makes arguments on Palpatine’s behalf, stressing he knows he shouldn’t disagree
with the counsel that wants him to take no side.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His arguments sound reason, Padme appreciates
his openness with her.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He eventually
confides in her about his dreams about his mother.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She convinces him to go to Tatooine to find
her.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">We get a scene with Count Dooku and the Emperor where Palpatine reveals
the Jedi are getting too close and too suspicious of him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He tells Count Dooku it is time to reveal
himself and draw their attention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
also reveals he believes Anakin is the key to their destroying the jedi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He tells Dooku his attempt to take out
Obi-Won failed, but that Obi-Won is going to investigate the Clone Army and
Dooku should reveal himself there and kill him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">These changes specifically make the Jedi seem more competent in that they
suspect Palpatine earlier, but also show Palpatine’s cunning in using Dooku as
their false enemy to distract from himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think this is better use of Dooku.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It creates an early confrontation between Obi-Won and Dooku.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the meantime Anakin arrives on Tatooine
and there is a similar scene from AofC where he discovery her death and kills
everyone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He comes back and again
confides in Padme.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She comforts
him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">We get a confrontation between Obi-Won and Dooku, but Dooku escapes…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obi-Won tracks him back to a huge droid army
and notifies the counsel that he believes he has found the Sith behind
everything.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He says they need to send
the biggest army they have and some Jedi for assistance in taking out the Droid
army and apprehending Dooku.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When Anakin
finds out he notifies Palpatine who uses it to convince the Senate to authorize
the Droid army’s approval.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s a
huge battle, Anakin and others confront Dooku who again escapes, but it is a
victory for the Clone Army.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">This story makes more narrative sense, it solves many problems of episode
2, it makes the Jedi look more competent, it creates a more natural opportunity
for Padme and Anakin’s love to blossom (and the changes from Episode one don’t
make that seem so creepy).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It shows Palpatine’s
focus on Anakin in more depth and develops Anakin’s relationship with
Palpatine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also shows the conflict
between Anakin and the counsel, but the connection and trust between Obi-Won
and Anakin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">Episode I and II were huge lost opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Episode III holds up remarkably well despite
those missed opportunities, but these changes would strengthen that movie even
more as we’d better believe Padme/Anakin’s bond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’d understand how Palpatine continued to
deceive the Jedi as he gained power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’d
also see more of Palpatine’s attempts to corrupt Anakin from early on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously this is a skeleton story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are plenty of other scenes that could
be added that fit within these parameters but I think this would have told a
better story that fit better into the story of the Emperor’s rise and Anakin’s
corruption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-31412760511550424162021-12-27T16:05:00.001-05:002021-12-28T14:00:43.302-05:00Bearcats Have a Path to Victory<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I don’t have
much time for writing about my Bearcats these days, but with an historic
matchup just around the corner and minimal hearings this week I decided to take
some time and give my thoughts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">How The Bearcats Got Here<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Before we dive into the game,
let’s take a little time to appreciate the journey.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The program bottomed out in the late 80s
before Tim Murphy came to resurrect it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Murphy redshirted an entire class, took a ton of losses and in his final
year (before leaving for Harvard) raised them to an 8-3 record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then leaving the independent ranks for
Conference USA and finding Rick Minter, an average/above average coach not good
enough to leave, but good enough at identifying talented players and assistants
to compete, stabilized the program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
ton of great players and coaches came through during the Minter/Murphy stretch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I celebrated that era in <a href="http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2021/08/ode-to-mintermurphy-bearcats.html">THIS </a>post)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After that 8-3 season the Bearcats were
rarely too bad, but never particularly great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was a stable, solid program waiting for something big. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"> Something big would come in the
form of a Big East invite. The invite
made possible by an elite basketball program, a stabilized, solid football
program, and the foresight of Bob Goin and Joe Steger investing in the future
of UC athletics. UC moved on from
Minter, bringing in Dantonio who built a foundation that their next coach used
for thrust the Bearcats onto the national scene. Brian Kelly brought the fans to Nippert in
year 1, he brought the program to a BCS Bowl in year 2 (behind maybe the <a href="http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2018/11/i-havent-blogged-in-long-time.html">MOST IMPORTANT</a> 3 game stretch in UC football history) and he ran the table in year 3
leaving the Bearcats one agonizing Big 12 second from playing for a National
Championship. (I wrote about the season
in depth in 2019 here are my 2 favorite pieces: <a href="http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2019/08/experiencing-bearcat-football-decade.html">Experiencing Bearcat Football</a>... and <a href="http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2019/12/one-impossible-season-one-unbelievable.html">One Impossible Season</a>... )<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What Kelly built, Butch Jones
mostly kept intact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were more
slipups and a noticeable dropoff, but they still shared 2 more Big East
Championships.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then the Big East
collapsed, the AAC was born (a tweener conference that offered respite while UC
desperately looked for an exit), Butch left and the program collapsed under
Tuberville.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the collapse proved
temporary, as the program had not lost the luster from its rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The right coach could bring it back, and Luke
Fickell was just that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After a 4-8 debut season (that
could have been much worse) focused on building the culture and creating a
foundation, Fickell has done nothing but win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The insertion of Freshman QB Des Ridder led to a surprise with at the
Rose Bowl to open 2018.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A young Bearcat
team took advantage of a so-so schedule and an ability to win close games to
finish 11-2, capping it off with a win over VT in the Military Bowl.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The following year the Bearcats again won 11
games, winning the AAC East, but lost back to back weeks at Memphis (the second
being the conference championship) to end the regular season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The foundation had been laid for something
bigger in 2020.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Amidst a crazy COVID season the
Bearcats were dominant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They went 9-0,
blasting nearly everyone in the AAC along the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They rocketed into the top ten of the human
polls and several computer rankings and led nearly the entire way in the Peach
Bowl before losing on a 53 yard field goal against Georgia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That loss at the time was excruciating, but
in many ways it could be the most important loss in Bearcat history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After that loss, player after player seemed
to decide to come back one more time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
COVID season had offered an opportunity for players to get an extra
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Between those players and other
draft eligible players who would have been drafted coming back, UC was looking
at an incredibly talented and exceptionally experienced team returning for
2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The expectations were enormous.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And they met those expectations
at every turn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won by 14 at Indiana
despite a disastrous start fueled by penalties in their first game against a
hostile crowd since 2019, finishing the game on a 38-10 run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They built a 17 point lead at Notre Dame, one
that should have been bigger but for some chip shot field goal misses, and held
on to win by 11.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They dominated the best
teams in the AAC beating UCF by 35, SMU by 34 and Houston by 15.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats had a 99 or 100% postgame win
expectancy in 11 of their 13 games according to SP+.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their 2 lowest postgame win expectancies were
87% at Indiana and 88% against Tulsa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
short, they were dominant all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Bearcats Belong<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The naysayers might be loud, but
they aren’t that prevalent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The people that
matter, polls, computer rankings and oddsmakers all have concluded the Bearcats
are among the elite of college football this season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were a preseason top 10 team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were favored at Notre Dame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ve been in the top 4 of the human polls
the entire back half of the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
main computer rankings and the oddsmakers have them somewhere between the 5<sup>th</sup>
and 7<sup>th</sup> best team in the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact looking at a rough average of the computers and oddsmakers the
best teams in college football this season can be grouped like this:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Alabama/Georgia<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">GAP<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Michigan/Ohio
State<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">GAP<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Cincinnati/Notre
Dame<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">GAP<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Oklahoma/Oklahoma
State/Texas A&M/Utah/Clemson<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Oddsmakers see UC as the 5<sup>th</sup>
best team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SP+ has UC as the 5<sup>th</sup>
best team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sagarin has UC as the 6<sup>th</sup>
best team (behind a Notre Dame team it beat at Notre Dame).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>FPI has UC as the 7<sup>th</sup> best team
(behind Notre Dame and Oklahoma).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Seeing
as Ohio State lost 2 of its 3 biggest games, having Cincinnati in over OSU
despite those numbers is completely reasonable and in fact UC stacks up
favorably to many CFP teams in the past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These are all predictive metrics which typically are not favorable to G5
teams and when you look at resume metrics, the Bearcats are a consensus top 4
team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC has earned their spot.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Bama -13.5 is Vegas Showing this Bearcat
Team a Ton of Respect</b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>You see a -13.5 line and
immediately may think, wow, Vegas thinks UC is going to get killed, but looking
at Bama’s history in these semi-final games and their strength in the
computers, keeping this line below 2 tds tells you Vegas believes in this
Bearcat team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since the 2015 -2016
season Bama has won its semi-final matchups by 38 (38-0 over Michigan State),
17 (over Washington), 18 (over Clemson), 11 (over Oklahoma, where Oklahoma chipped
away at a huge early deficit) and 17 (over Notre Dame).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bama wins these games by multiple
scores.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">Bama is clearly the favorite.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bama
is the better team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bearcat fans mostly
know and accept this. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are only 3 other teams that would be
less than a 2 TD underdog against Bama on a neutral field (Georgia, Michigan
and Ohio State).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bama has the Heisman
trophy winning QB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have maybe the
best defensive player in the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are the deepest, most talented team in the country (the only other
argument on that front is Georgia, but the QB gap between those teams matters).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a true David v. Goliath matchup
because Bama has separated itself from the rest of college football over the
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, this Bearcat team has
potential advantages that present a plausible path to victory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">How the Bearcats Win the Cotton Bowl<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I’m not going to play the
prediction game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The more likely
scenario is a Bama win, but games are played on the field and I firmly believe
this Bearcat team can shock the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
touched on this earlier, but the Bearcats have an incredible blend of talent
and experience among its juniors, seniors and super seniors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eight to Ten players from that group will
likely be drafted this spring, including multiple players projected as first
round draft picks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the Bearcats
are at a depth of talent disadvantage, having that much talent and that much
experience cannot be overlooked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Here’s my big contradictory
statement regarding this football game: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think Cincinnati matches up better with Bama
than they do against Michigan or Georgia, but I would have rather been matched
up with Michigan or Georgia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reason
I didn’t “want” Bama is Bama has the best coach in college football history and
the Heisman trophy winning QB (QB is probably the “weakness” of Georgia and
Michigan).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Bama’s offensive
strengths play into the Bearcats’ defensive strengths and while Bama may be
able to sustain drives running the ball they aren’t a particularly strong
running team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think the Bearcats would
welcome Bama attempting to exploit UC’s run defense which is better than some
fans complained about, but definitely not the strength of the defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats will give up yards on the ground
if teams are patient about running it, but the defense tends to get enough
negative plays/stops to not give up points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It will be interesting to see whether Saban sees UC’s run defense as a
potential weakness to attack and tries to win that way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UC’s secondary is elite, but
Bama has elite wide receiver talent and a Heisman QB throwing to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will be a test unlike any other for Sauce
and Coby (and Cook/Hicks/Bush). The Bearcats have been great about preventing
big plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they can prevent big plays
from the Bama wide receivers they’ll have a great chance to hold Bama in the
20s, which is what they need to do to win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I’m really interested to see if Saban has Williams on the Boundary
against Sauce most the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I believe
Sauce would be up to the challenge. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
doesn’t mean he couldn’t be beat, but that he’ll make his share of plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The biggest key to the Bearcat secondary
holding up will be if they can continue to get pressure on the QB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats have been pretty great at Havoc
rate most of the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Early in the
season that wasn’t translating into sacks but often translated into turnovers
as QBs tried to make plays while getting hit (see Indiana and Notre Dame).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Against Houston that translated into a barrage
of sacks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bama is undoubtedly the most
talented offensive line UC has faced, but they haven’t been typical Bama on the
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Multiple teams have been able to
get to Young by bringing pressure (Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn all did this
to varying degrees of success).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If UC’s
defensive line can win some battles that should open up some seems for the
blitzing linebackers and defensive backs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I think UC’s defensive line
depth might be an underrated positive in this game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC only plays 3 defensive lineman at a time,
but the backups have come in and done their job all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I could see someone like Briggs having a big
day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The other complicating factor is
when they disrupt Young they need to prevent him from escaping.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His buying time is a recipe for the talented
Bama receivers finding daylight against UC and it is where a lot of their big
plays are made.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC needs to come out
aggressive, stay aggressive and show some wrinkles in their blitz schemes Bama
hasn’t seen on film (I’d like to see Coby/Bush play more press man, as there
won’t be a ton of that on film and I’d like to see some new, unique pressures).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC is talented enough to be disruptive and if
the front seven is disruptive the defensive backs are likely to hold up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keeping Bama in the low 20s is going to be essential
to winning this game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>If the defense does those things
the question becomes, can the offense and special teams hold up their end?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have absolute confidence in Desmond Ridder
and his weapons to make plays if given time and confidence Ford can bust some
big runs if the line creates some space…everything really comes down to what
the offensive line can do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s unfair
to call the offensive line a weakness for the Bearcats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC gave up very few sacks, ran the ball well
with multiple running backs and hit on many down the field plays that took time
to develop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had 3 offensive lineman
that were first team all-conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
were a top flight AAC offensive line.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">But offensive line is clearly the position group that is least proven to
be able to play at an elite level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
less experienced version of this group struggled against Georgia in last year’s
Peach Bowl (particularly when their now departed NFL offensive tackle was
ejected), and at times struggled against Notre Dame (though opened some holes
in the second half and gave Ridder enough time most the game).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bama is a completely different animal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suspect the tight ends will chip more than
normal before releasing, hoping to buy Ridder the time to make the reads he is
capable of making.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think they’ll
be able to consistently hold up, but if they can enough this offense can make the
kind of chunk plays they need to score.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">I’ve seen two big issues from the line all season:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have struggled when teams sell out to
stop the run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has been true even against
inferior teams who are bound and determined to take away UC’s bread and butter
running plays on early downs (inside zone and duo) and been true in short
yardage situations both near the goal line and on third/forth and short.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So while UC’s YPC look great because they
have opened some big holes and their backs (especially Ford) are great at
breaking huge runs, their actual down to down success rate running is a
concern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I doubt Bama is going to sell
out on early down runs, so it will be interesting to see if the line can hold
up enough to open some holes and sustain a few drives with the run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they’ll need to pass to set up the run
and this staff has shown a willingness to play that way against the best teams
on its schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On obvious passing downs this team has really
struggled to identify where the pressure is coming from.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Blitzes and especially delayed blitzes have
wreaked havoc on this team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s why UC’s
third a long numbers are putrid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When
the Bearcats are in obvious passing downs they are susceptible to pressure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Teams don’t even have to send extra guys,
just get creative about how they send them and where they come from.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hopefully, this is an area that gets sorted
out on the break, but it’s one that is troubling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Bearcats need to avoid
obvious passing downs and third downs in general.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trying to get some quick hitting routes on
first down early in the game will be key.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hopefully, that will open up run and play action for the big play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think UC needs a bunch of chunk plays to
win this game (which is a strength of the offense), but to get those the
offensive line will have to hold up enough to get Ridder time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s skill guys can win against the Bama
defense if given the chance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">The Bearcats need to score in the high twenties to have a realistic shot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To get there I think they need at least one huge
run from Ford (50+ for a TD/setting up a TD).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They need 5-8 chunk passing plays of 20+ yards and they need to avoid
turnovers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are likely going to have
some negative plays on offense, but those can’t be turnovers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Additionally, a special teams play or 2 could
be key to taking some pressure off the offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This team has been great blocking kicks and mostly good in the
return/coverage game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As for field goal
kicking, they aren’t winning this game with field goals.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Final Thoughts<o:p></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;">We’ve heard “biggest game in Bearcat football history” many times this
year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This really is it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it’s probably a house money game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a game Bama wins convincingly all the
time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobody expects the Bearcats to win,
but they can because he Bearcats have some potentially favorable matchups such
as:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bearcat defensive backs v. Bama Receivers<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bearcat pressure packages v. Bama offensive
line<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bearcat receivers/tight ends v. Bama
secondary<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Those
matchups give the Bearcats a great chance to win the game if they can prevent
Young from extending plays, protect Ridder long enough to make a few plays of
their own and be clean in the turnover department.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yea, the most likely scenario is a Bama win,
but Cincinnati’s has a unique combination of talent and experience that makes
me dream and see a path toward the National Championship game in Indy two weeks
from tonight.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Go Bearcats!<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-41032699143526945822021-08-09T10:55:00.001-04:002021-08-09T10:55:12.982-04:00Ode to the Minter/Murphy Bearcats<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Back in the days before BK<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Many great Bearcats used to play<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">So, here’s an ode to all those
guys<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">That kicked so much ass before our
eyes.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">When I was barely four feet tall<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">At Nippert Stadium, I’d yell “Give
it to Small!”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">For David Small would juke and spin<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And carry the offense for a win<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Nearly 3000 yards at 6.7 a pop<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Small played big, a bitch to stop<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Finished his career with 31 Tds<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Took UC from one and ten to eight
and three.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And then in 1994<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">A new receiver blew through the
door.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Quick as hell, his hands were
great<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">That man’s name was Robert Tate<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Holy shit, just look at 1995.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Tate’s yards per catch, 19.5<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">After one game he signed my hat<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">That young boy will always remember
that.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">But to pursue the NFL you see<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Tate needed to convert to DB<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Drafted by the Vikings in round 6<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Covered NFL receivers until 2006<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">On the defensive side at that same
time<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Artrell Hawkins was in his prime<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Covering receivers and returning
kicks<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Offensives struggled to move the
sticks<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And in 1997, low and behold<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">A 47-year bowl drought ends at the
Humanitarian Bowl<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">With Brad Jackson out there giving
heck<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And four punt return TDs by Tinker
Keck<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Brad Jackson played for Huggs, a
different sport<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Making tackles on the field and on
the court<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">392 career tackles, third most in
UC history<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Playing next to Phillip Curry<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Curry prowled the field with fury<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">487 career tackles, yeah offenses
worried<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">A brutal defense, great special
teams<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Keck’s punt returns and ints<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And anchoring the offensive line,
another great you see<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Three time all-conference, Jason
Fabini.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">A fourth round Jets Pick in 1998<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">His NFL career turned out so
great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The next year a freshman stormed
on the scene<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Demarco McCleskey, a running
machine<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Rushed for nearly 3500 yards, good
for 2<sup>nd</sup> at UC<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">No shortage of touchdowns, he had 43<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">How about a receiver, catching
everything in sight<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">LaDaris Vann, a small man with big
fight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Caught 204 passes in his Bearcat
career<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">While breaking tackles, alluding,
leaving defenders in the rear<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">With Vann in the slot, always on
the go<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The Bearcats could look down the
field to Jonny O.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Olinger was a stud, want to feel
alive?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Go watch his incredible game
winning 2001 Memphis drive<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">But you need a QB, to throw these
guys passes<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And Gino did that, kicking so many
asses<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Starting as a freshman, an
incredible career<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">11,453 yards, making defenses fear<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">78 TDs, and so many comeback wins
to his name<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">See TCU, Southern Miss, Memphis,
so many great games<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And poor one out for the Buckeye
near miss<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Two balls on the spot, close to
sweet upset bliss<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">But no UC defender more havoc did wreak.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Than the fast and powerful force,
Antwan Peek<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">27 career sacks and I promise you
this<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">No UC lineman made more Offensive
tackles miss.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And I’ll tell you this, though it
may seem quite bold<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Peek had at least as many sacks,
denied by a hold<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">A singular Bearcat force, like
none other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Many great lineman, but Peek,
there will never be another<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Of course, Peek was followed by
Frasier and Cole<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Starting a dline tradition that is
still on a roll<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">And that line also included Mike Wright<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Those offensive lines were in for
such a fright.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">If UC football is relatively new
to you<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I’m glad you came here, for this
history review<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I hope you enjoyed this ode to
those guys<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Those Bearcats, who kicked so much
ass in front of our eyes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-39408266841415122092020-07-31T09:52:00.002-04:002020-07-31T09:52:58.610-04:00Writing About Writing<p class="MsoNormal"> I’ve been an avid reader since I read Ender’s Game by Orson
Scott Card in the 8<sup>th</sup> grade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was assigned to me by one of my least favorite teachers in one of my
least favorite classes (an advanced English class that was tedious and
boring).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, in assigning us to
read Ender’s Game that teacher gave me a lifelong appreciation for Science
Fiction and Fantasy novels that has never waned. You never know where important
moments in your life will come from.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
remember putting off reading the assigned chapters until the last possible
second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think she’d assigned us to
read the first 5 chapters the first week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The night, before I laid in bed around 9:00 picking up the book to read
those chapters. I didn’t put the book down until nearly 4 in the morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d finish it the next day after school.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">From that day forward I plowed
through the Ender’s series (It was 4 books at that time), the Foundation
Series, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and every other piece of science
fiction I could get my hand on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
dabbled in fantasy with Watership Down and Lord of the Rings, but struggled to
get into some of the big series at the time like Wheel of Time and Sword of
Truth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eventually, my tastes expanded
and I dove into the Hyperion Cantos, the Culture Series, Game of Thrones, First
Law, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">At some point I started coming up
with ideas of my own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I wrote out some
vague plans for an ambitious series and even wrote a rough draft of the
prologue and first chapter of what would eventually become Felan’s Rescue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But ultimately, I never committed the time to
following through and in my twenties, when there was plenty of time to be had,
those pages stayed mostly blank.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">Then came law school and limited
reading beyond law school assigned readings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then came getting my law practice off the ground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But shortly before the birth of my now two-year-old
daughter I had an epiphany.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I knew I
wanted to write these, but if I didn’t commit those pages would always remain
empty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I wanted to tell my daughter that
I gave it a shot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That I had something I
really wanted to do and I took the time to do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So shortly after she was born, I began
revisiting Felan’s Rescue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over the next
seven months I wrote during my lunch at work, sometimes at night, sometimes if
I had a light day I’d write during work hours (the beauty of owning your own
practice) and I finished a draft of Felan’s Rescue.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">Several edits later I had a draft I
was very happy with and since then I’ve been querying various agents hoping to
find someone as excited by the story as I am.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the meantime, I’ve been writing a second novel whose first draft is
getting closer to being finished by the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Maybe the only people that will read these novels will be close to me,
but I’m proud of the work I’ve put into them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I love the characters and love how the pieces of both stories fit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I hope one day they’ll be on bookshelves
somewhere, but until that day I’m happy my daughter inspired me to commit to
the writing process and write two novels I’ve intended to write for over a
decade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-32395963492057181842020-03-25T12:57:00.002-04:002020-03-25T12:57:49.583-04:00Redraft the NBA (every 10 years)<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This started as a thought exercise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the players decided they wanted to form
their own league where the players had stakes in the league so that they could
keep the vast majority of the money, what could they do to maximize the value
of the league?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Basically, if you were
starting a league from scratch how would you make it the most fun/profitable?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It morphed into a plan for the best possible
version of the NBA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Players don’t stay
at a franchise forever anymore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
move.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their free agency is a huge
deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The old way of a player being
forever tied to a franchise is gone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With all that in mind here is my biggest idea for the best possible NBA:
every ten years you redraft the entire league.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I know
you’re thinking it wouldn’t work, but hear me out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve tried to work through the anticipated
complaints and issues and you’ll see me address them as I go, but think about
how awesome this would be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People would
be crazy for the redraft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would drive
content.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would get massive
viewership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TV would pay a ton for it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It might be bigger than the games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I've thought out the basics of how it would
work and why it would be (1) awesome and (2) financially unbelievable for the
players and owners. More importantly, given the way players move around
from city to city these days now seems like the perfect time for it.
Players just aren't tied to franchises like they once were. Lets take
advantage of that to make the most fun / most interesting NBA possible.
Let's Redraft the NBA every 10 seasons.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2 years before the
draft:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></b>Our hypothetical redraft is
going to take place after the 2025 season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We have 5 years to go.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
previous five years everything was normal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There was a salary cap, free agents, a rookie draft, etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will continue to be the case for a
couple more seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However the second
to last season before the redraft we get rid of the rookie draft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All rookies are now free agents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I like this because there is less value in
the draft when you won’t have your rookie under contract for 3-5 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the draft being devalued, why not allow
rookies to sign where they feel it is the best fit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Further, it’s something unique to change the
narrative for an offseason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also think
without a draft, they should exempt rookie salaries from the cap.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Teams can bid what they want for a
rookie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Last Season before
the Draft:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
last season before the Redraft is UNCAPPED and there is no maximum player
salary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is one my favorite little
ideas to set up the redraft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Big stars
will be setting up their contracts to capitalize on that last season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There could be free agent bidding wars and
teams trying to spend those extra dollars at the end to steal a championship
for a season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think there should be a
provision that limits how much you can backload a contract (this will encourage
free agent activity the year proceeding the redraft).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also teams will be incentivized to win as
many games possible that season (and every other season) because of my next
rule.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Draft Order for the
Redraft:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
draft order for the Redraft will be determined by your record over the 10
seasons preceding the draft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the
first 8 seasons we still have a normal rookie draft where draft order is tied
to your record the opposite way (lottery with bad teams picking early), but the
Redraft will reward the teams that did the most winning over the previous
decade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Record only, not titles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There will still be some tanking incentive
early in the ten years, but is it worth ruining your draft position for the
Redraft?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During that final season not
only will fans be tracking their team’s record for that season, but they will
track their record for redraft purposes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is interest for every team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Every season there is incentive to win games because this could matter
for the Redraft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Redraft, Rounds 1
and 2:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>These
are your stars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are the guys you
want to build your franchise around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
are only required to sign a 2 year contract with the team that drafts them, but
can sign up to a 5 year deal if they choose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There are some financial incentives to sign for the additional years as
well as financial incentives to resign with the team that drafts you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you are drafting a star in the Redraft
you could get him for a full 5 years, you could get him for only 2 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every player that wants to play professional
basketball will be eligible for the Redraft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There will be no rookie draft that season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All rookies will be in the Redraft.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Redraft, Rounds
3-6:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Starter
level players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are required to sign
for at least 3 seasons and up to 5 seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Redraft,</b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Rounds 7-10:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Bench
and developmental type players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Players
are required to sign 4-5 year contract with the team that drafts them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Free Agency:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Any
players not taken in the 10 round Redraft will be free agents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Why Owner’s Would
Agree to It?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I have
to think it would be worth an insane amount of money to the League.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s relevant to every season, but
particularly relevant as you start approaching the 10<sup>th</sup> year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It incentives teams to avoid tanking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Owners mostly aren’t keeping their guys
throughout their careers anyways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This gives
the successful franchises a chance to lock in the best guys to new contracts
and gives the struggling franchises a chance to overhaul their roster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hope is around for every franchise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That has to drive interest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Why the Players Would
Agree?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
money would be huge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You just know it
would.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The best players would only have
to go to a team for 2 years if they were really against playing for that franchise
then have the flexibility to move on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The best players could get huge paydays in the uncapped season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Starter level players would have slightly
less flexibility but could still get out of their contract in 3 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Late round role players would have 4 years of
a guaranteed contract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Why the Fans Should
Want It?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What
would drive conversation in the NBA more than Redrafting the entire
League?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The debates about who you should
take would be never ending.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two
years leading up to the draft would be incredibly exciting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’d still a nice period of time where the
game is run like it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can still
develop attachments to your players, hell it would probably be a consideration
of owners when drafting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does an owner
who wants to keep his star on his team trade down to a spot he knows he can get
him and acquire an additional pick?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does
he reach for his guy early?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There would
be so many variables to consider.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I get
fired up thinking about this idea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
know it would never happen, but wow would it be incredible if it did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-1152858744611931662020-03-19T13:57:00.001-04:002020-03-19T13:57:09.943-04:00Best First Round NCAA Tournament Games (That I Watched and Remember)No basketball today. It's depressing. I hate it. To give a little basketball to everyone's lives I'm ranking my fall time favorite first round games. I'm sure I missed some (as these are off the top of my head) so please share your favorites. I'll count down from 10.<br />
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10. 14 Weber State over 3 UNC (1999)- We'll start with an upset I remember watching on my mini TV in my bedroom. It was a late night game. I was in 8th grade. Harold "The Show" Arceneaux just took over. <br />
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9. 13 UNCW over 4 USC (2002) - A sentimental favorite for me as my dad went to UNCW and always followed them. Brett Blizzard and Craig Callahan made this a team that could win a tournament game and they did in a great, exciting battle with USC. </div>
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8. 6. Maryland over 11. UNCW (2003)- They were back a second straight year and looked headed for another NCAA tournament win when Drew Nichols broke my heart. Amazing game and end. I watched it at a high school party my senior year. </div>
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7. 9. UAB over 8. Washington (2004)- The only game I couldn't find footage of. The final score was 102 to 100. It ended in regulation. UAB put up 51 each half. One of the most exciting, up and down basketball games I remember watching. <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=244000048">https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=244000048</a></div>
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6. 13. Vermont over 4 Syracuse (2005) - "OHHHHHHH! MY GOODNESS! SORRENTINE, HIT THAT ONE FROM THE PARKING LOT!" --- Gus Johnson</div>
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5. 8. Cincinnati over 9. Purdue (2015)- UC winning a tournament game they never seem to win. Down late, game seemingly lost and they make every play down the stretch including a buzzer beating Caupain layup to force OT. </div>
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4. 11. VCU over 6. Duke (2007) - One of my toughest omissions was when Lehigh beat Duke, but this one really sticks out. Eric Maynor was awesome for VCU and drilled the game winner with 1.8 to play. </div>
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3. 13. Valparaiso over 4. Mississippi (1998) - I stayed late at school and walked home to watch the end of this one. Everyone knows it. The homerun play to Bryce Drew. </div>
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2. 15. Hampton over 2. Iowa State (2001)- Capping off a crazy dame in Boise. Ending with the image of their coach kicking his legs in the air being held up by his celebrating player. </div>
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1. 14. Georgia State over 3. Baylor (2015)- Down 10 with under 2 minutes left. Georgia State mounts a furious comeback capped off by RJ Hunter from deep while an injured coach Ron Hunter falls out of his chair. </div>
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Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-68002238827282585702020-03-12T15:48:00.002-04:002020-03-12T15:48:30.779-04:00Pre-Selection Bracket Projection 2020 <br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
I’d be
stunned if there was a tournament next week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I’d be surprised if there is a tournament at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, if there is a tournament (either starting
next week or eventually) here is my prediction for what the field will look
like:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
One Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Kansas,
Gonzaga, Dayton</b>, Baylor<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Two Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>San Diego State, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Creighton, Florida State</b>, Duke<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Three Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Kentucky</b>,
Michigan State, Seton Hall, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Oregon<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Four Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Wisconsin</b>,
Villanova, Louisville, Maryland <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Five Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ohio State, Penn State, Auburn, Butler<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Six Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>BYU, Illinois, Houston, Colorado<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Seven Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, St Marys,<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Eight Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Arizona, Michigan, Providence, USC<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nine Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Marquette, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Ten Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ETSU,</b>
UCLA, Arizona State, <b>Utah State</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
11 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Rutgers, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Cincinnati</b>, Texas Tech, NC State/Texas<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
12 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Richmond/Wichita State, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Stephen F. Austin</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Yale</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Liberty</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
13 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Akron, Vermont, North Texas</b>, <b>Belmont</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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14 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">UC Irvine, NM State, North Dakota State, Hofstra<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
15 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Eastern Washington, Little Rock, NKU, Bradley<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
16 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Winthrop</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Boston</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Siena/NC Central, Prairie View A&M/Robert
Morris</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Last 4
In:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>NC State, Richmond, Wichita State,
Texas<o:p></o:p></div>
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First Four
Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier
Purdue<o:p></o:p></div>
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Next Four Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South Carolina,
Memphis<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Others
Considered: Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
I have 36
teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams
that have already won their at large bids).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine
seed except Oklahoma.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think Oklahoma,
Arizona State and Rutgers are almost certain to be in as well, but I’m not
willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 36.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
That leaves
10 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the
remaining 6 spots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those teams are:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCLA, Texas Tech, NC State, Richmond, Wichita
State, Texas, Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier and Northern Iowa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I actually think the committee will overseed
UCLA, but I have them on this list because I think they COULD go the other way
(They have things the committee traditionally values, but real holes that
justify leaving them out).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have Purdue
over Northern Iowa on my First Four Out, but I think Northern Iowa is more
likely to make the tournament. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Basically
they have things the committee might value that are unique, whereas Purdue has
things that other bubble teams did better.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-74626503642328037152020-03-10T12:38:00.001-04:002020-03-10T12:41:00.986-04:00Tuesday (Championship Week) Bracket Projection<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
One Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Two Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>San Diego State, Creighton, Florida
State, Duke<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Three Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall,
Oregon<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Four Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville,
Maryland <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Five Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ohio State, Penn State, Auburn, Butler<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Six Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>BYU, Illinois, Houston, Colorado<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Seven Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, St Marys,<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Eight Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Arizona, Michigan, Providence, USC<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nine Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Marquette, Florida, LSU, Stanford<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Ten Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Oklahoma, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ETSU,</b> UCLA, Arizona State, <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
11 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b>Utah State,</b> Rutgers,
Cincinnati, Indiana/Xavier<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
12 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Texas Tech/NC State, Stephen F.
Austin, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Yale</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Liberty</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
13 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Akron, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, <b>Belmont</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
14 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UC Irvine, NM State, Colgate, NKU<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
15 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hofstra, ND State, Eastern
Washington, Little Rock<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
16 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Winthrop</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Bradley</b>,
Siena/NC A&T, Prairie View A&M/St Francis (PA)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Last 4
In:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC
State<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
First Four
Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State,
Wichita State<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Next Four
Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Purdue, Northern Iowa, Saint Louis,
South Carolina<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Others
Considered: Memphis, Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse,
Tulsa<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
I have 35 teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams
that have already won their at large bids).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine
seed except Stanford.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think Stanford,
Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are likely to be in as well, but I’m not
willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 35.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
That leaves
10 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the
remaining 6 spots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those teams are:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCLA, Cincinnati, Indiana, Xavier, Texas
Tech, NC State, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State and Wichita State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think 6 of those 10 would be in today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have my prediction of who would, but I
could see justifications for going with the others.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Everyone
else listed I think would be out as of today, though some others could
theoretically make a run at it in their conference tournaments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-8179975411390350272020-03-08T13:59:00.002-04:002020-03-08T13:59:37.945-04:00First Bracket Projection 2020
<br />
<div align="center" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
One Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Two Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>San Diego State, Duke, Creighton, Florida
State</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Three Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall,
Oregon</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Four Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ohio State, Villanova, Louisville, Wisconsin</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Five Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Maryland, Penn State, Auburn, Butler</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Six Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Iowa, BYU, Houston, Colorado</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Seven Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Eight Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Arizona, Providence, St Marys, USC</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nine Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Marquette, Florida, LSU, Stanford</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Ten Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Oklahoma, UCLA, Arizona State, <b>Utah
State</b></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
11 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Rutgers, Cincinnati, ETSU,
Indiana/Xavier</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
12 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Texas Tech/NC State, Stephen F.
Austin, Yale, Liberty</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
13 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Akron, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, <b>Belmont</b></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
14 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UC Irvine, NM State, Colgate, Wright
State</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
15 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hofstra, ND State, Eastern
Washington, Little Rock</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
16 Seeds:<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Winthrop, Bradley, Siena/NC A&T,
Prairie View A&M/St Francis (PA)</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Last 4 In:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC State</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
First Four Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State, Wichita
State</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Next Four Out:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Purdue, Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South
Carolina</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Others Considered:
Memphis, Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
I have 36
teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams
have already won their at large bids).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine
seed except Stanford.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think Stanford,
Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are likely to be in as well, but I’m not
willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 36.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
That leaves
11 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the
remaining 7 spots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of those spots I’m
giving to ETSU as an at large selection.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That leaves 6 spots left for those remaining 10 teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those teams are:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCLA, Cincinnati, Indiana, Xavier, Texas
Tech, NC State, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State and Wichita State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think 6 of those 10 would be in today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have my prediction of who would, but I
could see justifications for going with the others.</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Everyone
else listed I think would be out as of today, though some others could
theoretically make a run at it in their conference tournaments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-92140004108861558132020-03-07T16:24:00.000-05:002020-03-07T16:24:04.971-05:00Ranking the Bubble 2020
<br />
Every team above this list I think is in the tournament and
can’t play themselves out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every team I
discuss here ranges from “I think they’re in but the committee could keep them
out for X reason,” to “I’m almost certain they are out but they could 1. Play
their way in or 2. The committee could justify their inclusion with Y”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I go from most likely to make if the
tournament started today to least likely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Right now I’m discussing 29 teams for 12 at large spots, though you’ll
notice many near the bottom I don’t think are in or that close.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
LSU- Strong strength of schedule and nonconference strength
of schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4-8 Q1 and 7-1 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only one bad loss (at Vandy).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d be very surprised if they didn’t make
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home win over Florida and road wins
over bubble Texas and bubble South Carolina are their best wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also have some nice wins over bubble type
teams Arkansas, Bama and Mississippi state to go along with a neutral court win
over Rhode Island.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a strong
bubble resume at this point.<br />
<br />
<br />
Indiana- Another bubble team with a losing record in Q1/Q2
games (9-13).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have great home wins
over MSU, Florida State and Ohio State, another Q1 home win over Penn State and
a Q1 road win at Minnesota.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have 9
Q1 losses, 8 of which are on the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They only have 2 road wins (the Minnesota win and a win at Nebraska),
but at least can claim two Neutral court Q2 wins (over Notre Dame and
Connecticut).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they’ll end up in
the tournament.<br />
<br />
<br />
Xavier- One great win at Seton Hall is probably going to
keep them in even but losing the next two would make them really nervous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 3-10 Q1 (and two of those are
against Georgetown/St Johns who likely aren’t dancing).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 7-1 against Q2 with the only loss
being at Wake Forest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t have
any bad losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s nothing special,
but it’s probably a tournament resume.<br />
<br />
<br />
Southern Cal-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I feel
like some of the PAC 12 NET numbers don’t make a lot of sense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much credit will the committee give these
teams for their home wins over an Arizona team sitting at 10-7 in
conference?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>USC is 4-7 against Q1 and
6-1 against Q 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only “bad” loss was
at home to Temple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They beat Arizona,
Arizona State and Stanford at home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
have a solid neutral court win over LSU and a road win at UCLA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they’re in with a win at home against
UCLA to end the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they don’t
get that they still may hold on, but a couple PAC 12 tournament wins would help
them.<br />
<br />
<br />
Oklahoma- 10-12 Q1 and Q2 isn’t great but they have a few
things going for them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They swept WVU,
split with Texas (each winning on the others court).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also have a home win over bubble
Mississippi State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t have any
bad losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a weaker resume than I
thought at first glance and is kind of dependent on what you think of the WVU
sweep.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
UCLA – If they don’t lose their last 2 I think they get in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 6-6 Q1 and 3-3 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have mostly erased their two bad
losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They still are only 59 in
Strength of Record and their predictive metrics have lagged way behind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think they can afford a major slip
up, but they can probably lose to USC and hang on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sweep of Arizona and sweep of Colorado are
enormous for their resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also
have a nice home win over Arizona State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><br />
<br />
<br />
Arizona State-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like
many of these bubble teams they avoided bad losses (0 Q3/Q4 losses), but have a
losing record in Q1/Q2 games (9-11).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
6-5 road record is helpful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their two
best wins are home against Arizona or at Stanford.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a nice home win over Oregon and
home wins over USC and UCLA (that UCLA home win is still technically a Q3
win).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The PAC 12 is demonstrably better
than last season, but a lot of these teams are pretty close to the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They should be helped out by the #11 SOS and
#56 nonconference SOS.<br />
<br />
<br />
Cincinnati-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much
will the committee penalize Cincinnati for 4 Q3 losses?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of their resume looks tournament worthy,
but those losses loom large.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
only 2-6 in Q1 games (a home win over Houston and road win at Wichita), but are
8-0 in Q2 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That makes them one of
the bubble teams actually above .500 in Q1/Q2 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Houston is the only surefire at
large team they have beaten all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are helped by the 14<sup>th</sup> ranked SOS including the 25<sup>th</sup>
ranked nonconference SOS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As of right
now they have only played 2 Q4 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The sweep of bubble Wichita State helps, as do home wins over Tennessee,
Memphis, UConn, and Tulsa but their list of scalps isn’t at the level where the
committee is going to overlook 4 Q3 losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UC has to hope the committee values their SOS and the fact that UC was
testing itself almost every time it took the floor. <br />
<br />
<br />
East Tennessee State- Here’s a team you want to win its
conference tournament if you’re on the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Obviously, their gaudy 24-4 record is inflated by 12 Q4 wins and they do
have 1 bad loss to Mercer but they’ve gone .500 in Q1/Q2 games and 12-3 in
Q1-Q3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have Q1 road win over LSU to
go with a Q2 road win over UNC Greensboro and Q2 home win over Furman.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they get beat before the finals it may be
too much to overcome, but a loss to either Furman or UNCG (both very solid
teams) in the finals and they could (and I think should) be rewarded by the
committee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Small conference teams like
ETSU are going to have a ton of Q3/Q4 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s a good time for the committee to really pay attention to resume
metrics like Strength of Record or Wins Above Bubble. ETSU is 28 in SOR and at
2.2 Wins Above Bubble they rank 30<sup>th</sup> nationally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To me that’s a tournament worthy team.<br />
<br />
<br />
Rutgers-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think
there is a good chance a lot of predictors are off on Rutgers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today they got their SECOND win away from
home all season (over Purdue).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Teams
never make the tournament with that resume, but their resume may be just unique
enough to get there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I still think they
need a win or two in the Big 10 tournament to feel good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they do those things the strength of the
rest of their resume should get them in the tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have home wins over Seton Hall,
Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their only home loss was to Michigan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they lost at Pittsburgh, lost a neutral
sight game to St. Bonaventure and lost every road game in conference except
Nebraska.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The committee wants you to
prove you can win off your home court.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
still think Rutgers needs to prove it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Texas- Left for dead at one point, they’ve played like a
tournament team since mid-February.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
have no bad losses and a winning record on the road, which the committee will
like.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their best wins are road wins over
Texas Tech, Purdue and Oklahoma.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
also have a home win against WVU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of
course, they are only 7-11 in Q1/Q2 games including a 2-4 Q2 record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe they are in as of today but if they are
it’s by the skin of their teeth.<br />
<br />
<br />
Texas Tech- Maybe they’ve been unlucky but few teams have as
drastic a spread in their predictive metrics and resume metrics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 21 in kenpom (22 in NET for what
that is worth), but only 56 in Strength of Record.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Neutral court win over Louisville is
great and the wins over Texas (away) and WVU (home), Oklahoma (home) are
nice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, they are only 7-12 in
Q1/Q2 games and 8 of their wins are Q4 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think there are a ton of issues with their resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They need more wins and need them badly,
despite a gaudy NET ranking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
dangerous if they get in, but I’m not convinced they will.<br />
<br />
<br />
North Carolina State- They are 4-5 in Q1 games (great for a
bubble team), 4-5 in Q2 games (not great) and have 2 Q3 losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>8-10 Q1/Q2 isn’t great but not out of line
with many on the bubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, unlike
say Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, they didn’t combine that by avoiding bad
losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much will the committee
value their home wins over Duke/Wisconsin?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They have nice road wins over Virginia and Syracuse, but lost to bubble
Memphis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are going to be right at
the cutline one way or the other. <br />
<br />
<br />
Richmond- If the A10 is going to get a second at large team,
Richmond might be the best bet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since
February first the Spiders are 9-1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
have a nice neutral court win over Wisconsin in the nonconference and road wins
over Rhode Island and Davidson (3-4 Q1 record).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They only have one “bad loss” a neutral court loss to Radford in December
and are .500 in Q1/Q2 games (14-7 in Q1-Q3 games).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think they are above Rhode Island and Saint
Louis in the A10 pecking order.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Utah State-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can
earn a tournament bid tonight, if not the question is did they do enough?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of their metrics scream bubble
team(predictive= 42 Sagarin, 43 kenpom, 43 NET… Resume= 46 Strength of
Record).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only 4-6 Q1/Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their neutral court wins over Florida and LSU
should carry some weight, but the problem is that really is the extent of their
resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they had avoided those 2 Q3
losses I could see them sliding in, but I think they’ll end up just below the
cutline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Mississippi State- They are 2-6 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2
games with 2 Q3 losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s not
great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their only win over a surefire at
large team is a road win over Florida.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They swept Arkansas (the road win being their other Q1 win) and beat
Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina at home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They aren’t particularly strong (or weak for that matter) in the
predictive metrics or resume metrics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
think they likely have work to do in the SEC tournament.<br />
<br />
<br />
Wichita State-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There’s nothing really bad about Wichita State’s resume, but there isn’t
any meat to it either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They absolutely
have to beat Tulsa on Sunday to have any hope of an at large bid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As of right now they are 0-5 against the top
three AAC teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 2-6 in Q1
games, though neither win is over an at large caliber team and 7-2 against Q2
teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have wins over bubble
Oklahoma (home), and fringe bubble teams Memphis (home) and South Carolina
(Neutral).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their strength of record
number is actually pretty good, but you’d have to think they need to win
against Tulsa and make the conference finals to feel good about their chances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Northern Iowa – Their loss in Arch Madness should have a lot
of bubble teams very nervous. They have a good road win over Colorado.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 1-1 Q1 and 3-2 Q2. However, they
have 3 Q3 losses and 19 of their wins are Q3/Q4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 47 NET and 48 kenpom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also have 1 Win Above Bubble, but their
Strength of Record has slipped to 54 with the loss to Drake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they were top 45 in that number I think
they’d have a better chance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
the kind of team I wouldn’t mind getting a shot, but given their 3 Q3 losses
and limited Q1/Q2 opportunities I think they’ll be left out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Saint Louis- I don’t think 4-6 Q1/Q2 with 2 Q3 losses will
quite get them there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Road wins over
Richmond and Rhode Island help.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
also have a road win at Kansas State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Short of a trip to the A10 finals I see no chance, but could that get
them there?<br />
<br />
<br />
South Carolina- They are 3-8 Q1 and 5-2 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a really nice home win over
Kentucky and nice road wins over Arkansas and Virginia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also have a road win at Clemson and home
win over bubble Mississippi State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
they didn’t have 3 bad losses (2 Q3, 1 Q4) they’d probably be closer to the
discussion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As it is the losing Q1/Q2
record AND the bad losses keep them out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They could still do some work in the SEC tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Purdue- Too many losses?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think it’s likely without a deep Big Ten tournament run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is probably a tournament caliber team
that doesn’t have a tournament caliber resume.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The sweep of Iowa is great, as is the home win over Michigan State and
road win over Indiana (swept Indiana).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They also have a nice nonconference home win over Virginia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 9-14 in Q1/Q2 games and have a Q3
loss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Probably need to make at least the
finals of the Big 10 tournament.<br />
<br />
<br />
Memphis-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Right now
Memphis doesn’t have strong enough wins or a strong enough strength of schedule
to make up for their 3 quad 3 losses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
they can beat Houston again and make the conference tournament finals, that
could change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have home wins over
Houston, Wichita and Cincinnati (the three best tournament resumes in the
conference) and a road win at Tennessee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are 8-6 Q1/Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They aren’t
there now but are another team that could play their way to the
discussion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Arkansas- 3-5 in Q1 but only 4-6 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A road win at Indiana is nice, as is their
home win over LSU, but none of their other wins are over at large caliber
teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have avoided bad losses,
something Alabama cannot say.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Rhode Island- Only 1-6 in Q1 games and that win is over a
quickly fading VCU team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home win over
Providence is nice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home wins over Bama,
VCU and Davidson help too, but none of that is strong enough to get them
in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are still on the list because
they will get a chance or two to add to their resume in the A10
tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Alabama- 0-7 Q1 really says it all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>9-4 Q2 is fine, but not enough to make up for
the 0-7 and they have 3 Q3 losses on top of that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home wins over LSU, Auburn, Richmond and Mississippi
State are nice, but they really have not done much away from home to warrant
their inclusion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Stephen F. Austin- The predictive metrics say they aren’t an
at large caliber team…not even close.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, they are 43 in strength of record and have a road win over
Duke.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 20-1 in Q4 games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they lose maybe there will be an
interesting discussion, but I just don’t see them getting in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Tennessee- 3-9 Q1 and 5-4 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their road win over Kentucky this week was
great and warrants at least keeping them in discussion in case they go on a run
in the SEC tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as of
right now they haven’t done nearly enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A home win over Florida is their only other win over a surefire
tournament team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They only have 1 bad
loss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Syracuse-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A somewhat
similar resume to Arkansas but they have 2 bad losses to Arkansas’ zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are 3-5 against Q1 (not bad), but only
3-6 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their win at Virginia is their
only win over a tournament team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t
see them getting in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<br />
Tulsa- Losses to Arkansas State, UT Arlington and Colorado State
probably doomed them, but if they win an outright championship and make the
conference finals maybe they have a chance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>2-3 Q1, 4-4 Q2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have a home
win over Houston and a road win over UConn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They beat Wichita at home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-89619223797598619002019-12-05T10:59:00.005-05:002019-12-05T10:59:58.136-05:00One Impossible Season, One Unbelievable Game<br />
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Everything was there for the taking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An undefeated football season, a second
consecutive Big East Championship, an unprecedented season of Bearcat football,
a probable trip to the Sugar Bowl…and oh yea, if Nebraska could somehow beat
Texas a possible trip to the National Championship Game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The stakes could not have been higher when
the Bearcats went to Heinz field on December 5, 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In so many ways, that in and of itself should
have been impossible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was a program
that had spent decades in what in the best of times was mediocrity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Up until the Rick Minter era (the long, but
stable Rick Minter era) the program had spent a prolonged period of time as an
Independent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After a decade in
Conference USA, they were given a spot in the Big East conference largely on the
strength of Bob Huggins building a top 10 basketball program and the vision of
Bob Goin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many thought Minter was the
best they could do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead the Bearcats
rose from the bottom of the Big East to Big East champions in a few years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had battled, winning close games in 2008
and then taking the conference by storm in 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This impossible season, this impossible
college football ascension had built to this one game with everything on the
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game was a microcosm of
everything that came before and in the end the Bearcats rose doing the
impossible and completing one of the great comebacks in college football history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We
spent the night before the game in Washington, PA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The hotels were cheaper and from Washington,
PA we could reach Heinz field in 30-40 minutes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With the game starting at noon, the tailgate started early.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember the lots near Heinz field being
$50.00.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We found one littered with
Bearcat fans and set up shop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By now we
were pros at road tailgates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was my
5<sup>th</sup> road trip of the season (only missing Oregon State) and my 11<sup>th</sup>
in the past two seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had the
grill set up by 8:00 a.m. and were mingling with Bearcat fans all over the
lot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were confident.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was going to be our game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This team had never let us down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a bit cold and the snow was falling,
but we barely noticed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With so much on
the line we were ready for the great day ahead.<o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It was
a noon kickoff, but we were sure to be in the stadium early.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats got the ball first and were
stopped immediately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pitt took over on a
short field and dominated the clock for a TD drive that while only going 56
yards, took 12 plays and 6:29 seconds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, UC responded with a touchdown of their own and the quarter
ended in a 7-7 tie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The second quarter
would see Pitt extend the lead to 14-7 almost immediately (on an incredible
catch by Doug Baldwin) and UC respond with a field goal to make it 14-10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then the wheels came off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Bearcat
defense gets maligned a lot in 2009, but for the first half of the season they
really did play well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as the
season went on, some injuries occurred and the lack of depth on that side of
the ball began to show.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Up 14-10 Bill
Stull hit a 23 yard pass than threw a 40 yard TD to Jonathan Baldwin to go up
21 to 10 (it was a flea flicker, two Bearcats were right there but didn’t get
their head around and Baldwin made the play).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After a Tony Pike interception, Pitt would add a field goal to go up 24
to 10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats would again do
nothing on their next drive and Pitt would block the punt giving them the ball
inside the UC 5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They would get a touchdown
and the Bearcats were suddenly down 21 points late in the first half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The air
had come out of the sail of the Bearcat fans at Heinz field that day and I have
no doubt everywhere else Bearcat fans were watching the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My sister was texting me about the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember her texts being fairly resigned to
UC losing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My response to her down 31-10
was something to the effect of “they’ll find a way to win this game.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did I really believe it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I had faith in this team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
could explode in a hurry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe I was
trying to convince myself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, a
few seconds later I would believe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
would fully buy in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mardy Gilyard would
make sure I did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mardy
was a force of nature in his time at UC and always had huge plays on the biggest
of stages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He ran back a kickoff against
Oklahoma.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He ran the opening kickoff
back when UC won at WVU in 2008 setting up their championship run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He ran back a kickoff the week before against
Illinois.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this was the one
everyone will always remember.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He takes
the kick, sprints forward, makes a couple quick moves then darts to the left
corner of the endzone, outrunning every Pitt defender trying to cut him off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was at the game, but in the many times I
have seen it since McDonough’s call remains one of the great calls I have
heard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Here comes Mardy Gilyard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Free at last!”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I picked up my phone and sent another text to
my sister barely a minute after my last one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I remember exactly what it said “We’re fucking winning this game!”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This time, I know I believed.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
defense came out and played really well for much of the second half, but the
Bearcats couldn’t seem to close the gap on Pitt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally it was Mardy Gilyard who caught a
pass between three defenders down the field and then darted off for a touchdown
cutting the lead to 7.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, UC
couldn’t get it closer and after punting from deep in their territory Pitt got
the ball back at the UC 32 and scored 4 plays later to get the lead back out to
14 (at 38-24).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To that point in the game
Pike had really struggled and offense had failed to move the ball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats were now down 14 points with
only 12:26 left in the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The offense
would have to figure it out quickly if UC was to win this one.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mardy
Gilyard returned the kickoff 49 yards to the Pitt 23 giving UC a short
field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The offense finished the drive
barely a minute later, but Jake Rogers missed the extra point, putting UC down
8.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After a quick three and out, Pike
lead the offense down the field and UC finished off the drive on a 1 yard TD
run by Isaiah Pead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Down two, UC kept
the offense on the field and Pike hit Gilyard on a slant to tie the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
defense had played a great second half, only giving up one TD on a short field,
but with the game on the line Pitt marched down the field behind a heavy dose
of Dion Lewis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lewis capped off the
drive with a 5 yard TD run putting Pitt up 6 with just 1:36 to go in the
game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember at the time being
somewhat relieved there was that much time on the clock.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Had Lewis just picked up the first down (on 2<sup>nd</sup>
a 2) instead of running 5 yards for the TD, UC may have run out of time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pitt messed up the snap on the extra point,
tried to run it and UC held.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suddenly, a
touchdown would be enough to win the game in regulation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was a huge play and we could feel it at
the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Again
Mardy Gilyard set up the offense. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gilyard broke off a 26 yard return to the 39.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you watch the replay he was so close to
breaking it again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC took over with
1:30 left in the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Heinz field was
rocking as UC took the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the
first play Pike faced pressure, stepped up and delivered it to Gilyard on the sideline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was short of the first down so the clock
kept running.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC got to the line quickly
and Pike found DJ Woods over the middle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UC got to the line quickly again and again Pike showed presence in the
pocket, this time stepping up and rolling right to avoid pressure and throwing
back across his body to Gilyard who broke back to the football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC called timeout with 39 seconds left at the
Pitt 29.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Watching
the replay of the next play it’s really impressive that Millan calls exactly
what is about to happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC has nobody
in the back field with Binns alone on the short side of the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pitt leaves Chappell in one on one
coverage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Millan points it out saying “Man
to man down here with Binns again with Chappell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s been something he’s liked all day. A
whole lot of field to work with.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Binns
creates just enough separation and Pike delivers a perfect strike to the
endzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think I’ve ever gone quite
so nuts on a play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hugging and high
fiving my friends and the other Bearcat fans all around me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anticipating the ensuing PAT that would put
the Bearcats in the lead. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The huge
contingent of UC fans that made the trip were heard throughout Heinz
field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Rogers
drilled the PAT this time and UC had a lead with 33 seconds left in the
game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pike hit 11 straight passes in the
4<sup>th</sup> quarter when they absolutely needed him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pitt ran out the kickoff taking over from
their own 18 with 28 seconds left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
field goal would be enough for Pitt, but the defense came up big one last time.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stull threw three straight incomplete
passes (his second and third down passes were almost intercepted, maybe should
have been) setting up forth down with only 10 seconds left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wandstadt tried to fool UC with play action
(seriously) and Curtis Young finished the game getting to Stull starting a sack
that the rest of the line finished off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After Pike took a knee we could all celebrate an unbeaten season and a
second straight Big East Championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And celebrate
we did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember not wanting to leave
Heinz Field, celebrating and cheering until the Bearcats finally left the field
themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pregame tailgate turned
into a postgame tailgate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC fans stayed
in the lot while Pitt fans got the hell out of dodge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One tailgate was against the street with a
microphone singing as Pitt fans drove off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Down the Drive rang throughout the lot and then at the bars that
evening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And then
we missed a national championship game by 1 second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I joined a boatload of UC fans at a
Pittsburgh bar watching the Big 12 Championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suh tried to singlehandedly win the game for
Nebraska.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With a few seconds left on the
clock and Texas in field goal range down 2, Colt McCoy took the snap rolled out
and threw it away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The clock hit triple
zero and the bar I was at erupted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
couldn’t believe it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Texas was about to
lose and UC would likely play for a national championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sadly, it wasn’t to be as the refs gave Texas
one second back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Texas drilled the 46
yard field goal and UC ended up in the Sugar Bowl.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not even that could take away from UC’s day
and the incredible season, but it remains staggering just how close the
Bearcats were to playing Bama for the national championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ten
years ago today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A college football game I will never forget, a
team that will stay with me forever and a season of unbelievable joy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bearcat football emerging on the college football
scene was unbelievable and special for someone like me who grew up going to Nippert
with my father, cheering hard for UC program that was mediocre even in
Conference USA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I loved UC
football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was resigned to enjoy
rooting for that type of program forever, but always hoped it would be
something more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I never imagined
2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was impossible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was incredible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a season I will never forget.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-67205156893475750392019-11-26T13:22:00.002-05:002019-11-26T13:22:22.160-05:00Bearcats Survive at Nippert<br />
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My
tailgate group began arriving at the lot around 11:00.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the rain we set up four tents, a
couple fires and a couple TVs to tailgate all afternoon in preparation for the
big game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temple had won four in a row
against the Bearcats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>True 2 of those
games had been against the Tuberville Bearcats and one against year 1 Fickell,
but Temple had been the second best AAC program in the East over that span,
consistently finding themselves in the conference championship race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the Bearcats being 11 point favorites
most Bearcat fans understood this would be a battle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the line, the AAC East championship and
the opportunity to play for a conference championship in two weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the end the defense came up huge, the
special teams made more enormous plays and the running game did just enough for
the Bearcats to survive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
first quarter was a mess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temple moved
down the field early, but the UC defense held them on 4<sup>th</sup> down to
get the offense the ball.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both teams
then traded three and outs (each offense going 3 and out twice) before UC went
on a 16 play 53 yard drive culminating in a field goal early in the second
quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the drive the offense only
completed 1 pass (a seven yard pass to Mdodj on first down).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every other positive play was a run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Crosa capped of the drive with a 36 yard FG
to put the Bearcats on the board.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It
looked like 3-0 would be the score going into the half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both offenses struggled immensely throughout
the second quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neither team put
together a drive longer than 27 yards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With
2:02 left in the half Temple punted the ball back to UC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC caught the punt for a modest return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, when they came back out UC had been
given the ball on the Temple 6.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temple’s
punter had caught the snap with his knee down, so UC took over from that
spot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcat offense went backward
from there and had to settle for a 37 yard field goal to take a 6-0 lead into
the locker room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The drive all but ended
on first down when UC called a rollout for Ridder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rollout enabled Ridder to make a couple
reads and if he didn’t like what he saw he could just throw the ball out of the
endzone without getting grounding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead Ridder took a 14 yard sack, putting UC in a near impossible
situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was maybe the most frustrating
play of the many frustrating plays Ridder made throughout the night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Like
the 2019 Bearcats against Temple, the 2009 Bearcats went into a home game
against West Virginia with a chance to clinch an opportunity to play for an
outright conference championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>West
Virginia was the biggest game on the home schedule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’d been the class of the Big East and a
top ten type program in their recent history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats forced a three and out to start the game then Colloros
marched the Bearcats down the field with a couple of passes and a series of
Pead runs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the Bearcats reached the
redzone, Tony Pike took the field for the first time since USF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the first play he found Binns across the
middle in the endzone and the Bearcats took a 7-0 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UC defense continued to play well in the
first quarter, but a fumble by Adrien Robinson on an 18 yard reception set up a
short field and WVU capitalized tying the game at 7.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>West
Virginia would take the lead a couple drives later.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After Jake Rogers missed a 34 yard field
goal, West Virginia went 80 yards in eight plays to give them a 14-7 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats rarely trailed in 2009 and they
wouldn’t trail for long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mardy Gilyard
took the kickoff 48 yards into WVU territory (Huge Mardy Gilyard kick returns
would be a thing the last three weeks of the season) and the Bearcats quickly
scored the tying touchdown on a 2 yard Pead run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The teams would go into the half tied at 14. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats opened the second half against Temple with their biggest drive of the
day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was the kind of physical,
imposing drive this team has seemingly come through with all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They completed zero passes on the drive (only
throwing it once) and instead ran 8 times for 65 yards culminating in a 13 yard
Michael Warren touchdown run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After a
Grosa extra point the Bearcats lead 13-0.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It would remain 13-0 for the rest of the third quarter.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Similarly,
the 2009 Bearcats came out of the half and marched down the field for a touchdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They started the drive with a heavy dose of
Isaiah Pead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Collaros then completed
three straight passes getting UC to the WVU 6.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Once again Brian Kelly brought Tony Pike back into the game and Pike delivered
on third and goal, throwing a strike to D.J. Woods for a touchdown to put the
Bearcats back up 21-14.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would remain
21-14 for the rest of the quarter.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Just
when it seemed like the Bearcat defense was going to shut Temple down the
entire game, Temple fought back into it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Temple opened the fourth quarter with a 10 play, 73 yard touchdown
drive, cutting the lead to 13-6.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temple
lined up for the PAT to cut the lead to 6 and then the Bearcat special teams
came up with the defining play of the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats blocked the PAT then Coby Bryant looked around and decided
to pick up the ball and try to take it back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>From the endzone it didn’t look open and then suddenly as he burst left
it did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A cavalcade of blockers ran alongside
him as Bryant sprinted toward the endzone and two points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead of a touchdown beating UC, Temple
would need two scores to win the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats got the ball back with a chance to run some clock and put Temple
away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It did not happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Warren ran twice getting UC in third and 3,
but Ridder took another sack on third down and UC punted the ball back to
Temple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Temple got the ball back and for
the second straight time marched down the field putting the ball in the endzone
and cutting the Bearcat lead to two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
field goal would now beat them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the
game on the line, the offense mostly did its job, moving the ball 42 yards in
10 plays (mostly on the ground, though UC managed a key third down conversion
through the air), running off 4:18 of clock and setting Crosa up for a 40 yard
field goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Crosa missed the
field goal and the UC lead remained 2.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Temple
got the ball back with a chance to win the game with a field goal of their
own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s when the Bearcat defense, again
came up with the key play it needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After converting a 4<sup>th</sup> and one, UC pressured Anthony Russo into
a throw he didn’t want to make and Derek Forest was there to run under it,
catch it and seal the victory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It wasn’t
pretty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The passing game continues to
have severe issues, but ultimately, this team made enough plays to beat a good
Temple team, remain unbeaten the AAC and lock up their spot in the AAC
Championship game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>For as
much as people dogged on the Bearcat defense in 2009 they often came up with
plays when the offense was struggling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After the TD drive to open the second half the Bearcat offense
struggled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the Bearcat defense
continued to keep WVU out of the endzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With 6 minutes left in the game and the Bearcats up 7, UC forced a
turnover on downs getting the ball back to the offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The offense moved 55 yards in 7 plays before
Rogers kicked a Field Goal to go up 24-14 with 3:15 to go.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though West Virginia would add a touchdown,
the Bearcat defense forced them to take up most the clock to do so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the time WVU found the endzone there was
only 39 seconds left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats
recovered the onside kick, took a knee and put themselves one win away from a conference
championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats have to beat Memphis to win the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they win at the Liberty Bowl this week
they’ll host the AAC Championship in two weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If they lose, they’ll be back at the Liberty Bowl again needing to beat
Memphis to win the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A win
next week and they’ll likely be hosting Navy for the conference
championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, should Navy lose
to Houston the Bearcats would be playing Memphis again, though this time at
Nippert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line is the Bearcats are
likely to need better production from Ridder to have any hope of beating
Memphis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Memphis has been the most
consistent team in the conference all season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Their offense is explosive and will almost certainly find the endzone a
few times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite their flaws, the
Bearcats are exactly where we all hoped they would be with 2 weeks to
play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s been a hell of a season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s hope they can win two more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-67339908690530128372019-11-18T15:51:00.000-05:002019-11-18T15:51:01.726-05:00Lightning Round – The “lightweight” conference games.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I haven’t had time to write the last few weeks and the games
were all “should win” type games, so I thought I’d just cover these similar
stretches in the 2019 and 2009 season with brief thoughts on each game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both stretches of the schedule focused on
conference matchups against the bottom of the conference where the Bearcats
were heavy favorites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both featured some
tests (this year more than in 2009) and in both stretches the Bearcats made it
out unscathed for the stretch run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
will also allow me to play with the schedule so that the game at Pitt coincides
with a potential conference championship game in the AAC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So here we go, lightning round as to how the 2009 and 2019 Bearcats took care of business against the bottom of the conference and put themselves in position to win the conference and make a major bowl game.</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2019 Tulsa at Cincinnati</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It was
a beautiful day for Bearcat football one which I celebrated by bringing my 1.5
year old daughter down for her first tailgate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The day started at the Zoo then we picked up some Adriaticos and
tailgated behind Martinos.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My wife and
daughter stayed for a bit than went home while I stayed for a great tailgate
and a hard fought win.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Though
the Bearcats were in control for most the game, it never felt like they played
close to their best.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will be a
theme in this stretch of football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Bearcats lead throughout, but it was a one score game for most of the second
half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately, the defense forced a
critical turnover (they forced 5 on the day) and put the game away with a quick
touchdown on the next play, moving the Bearcats to 6-1 on the season and 3-0 in
the AAC.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2009 Louisville at Cincinnati </b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Louisville
had owned the rivalry for several years prior to 2008, when UC won at Louisville
on their way to their first Big East Championship.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2009, the Bearcats had little trouble in
dispatching the Cardinals at Nippert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Zach Collaros made his first career start throwing for 263 yards (on 15
of 17 for 14.9 yards a clip) and running for 52 more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Isaiah Pead only ran 6 times, but had 88
yards and 2 touchdowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the end of
the game both Chazz Anderson and Brendon Kay saw action as the Bearcats won 41
to 10.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2019 Bearcats at ECU</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>ECU had
been a disaster all season and everyone expected this to be a complete
blowout.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though the ECU defense proved
as inept as expected, the ECU offense found itself and a sure victory suddenly
looked like a defeat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead of making
the trip to ECU, like I’d probably have done in 2009, I traveled to Washington
DC to meet my new nephew and visit my sister.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>ECU and Cincinnati traded scores in the first quarter (ending with UC up
21 to 14), then ECU ran off 17 straight in the second quarter to take a 31 to
21 lead into the locker room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s easy
to blame the defense when a team moves the ball and scores like ECU did that
night, but it shouldn’t be lost that Ahlers and his receivers were unbelievable
all night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ahlers delivered strike after
strike on time and on target, often with pressure in his face.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ECU receivers seemed to catch everything
around them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was an unexpected
performance from them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>However,
ECU struggled to stop the UC running game and by the time we reached the middle
of the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter UC had cut the lead to 5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ECU again drove into Cincinnati territory
when for the second time this season Ahmad Gardner made an enormous, game
swinging type play, jumping the Ahlers pass and taking it to the house.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You felt like the Bearcats had to have a
defensive score to win the way ECU was playing and that is what happened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ECU would tie it on a late field goal but
Crosa would hit one of his own as time expired and the Bearcats completed a
miraculous escape from East Carolina.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2009 Cincinnati at Syracuse</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
game was set to be played at noon on a Saturday, so after my friend got off work
we hopped in his car and drove overnight to Syracuse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We pulled into the hotel parking lot at about
5:00 a.m. and slept for a couple hours in the car before heading to Campus to
tailgate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a wet, chilly day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The lot was a bit muddy, but we found some
Bearcat fans, grilled some sausage and cheese sandwiches and had some fun.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the weather outside, the Carrier Dome
wasn’t a bad place to watch a football game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats paced themselves scoring a TD every quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Collaros threw for four TDs on the game and
only 6 incomplete passes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was another
game where the Bearcats never trailed and behind another solid defensive effort
UC left with a firmly controlling 28-7 win.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2019 UConn at Cincinnati<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UConn is
terrible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I mean really terrible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I mean, horribly, incredibly, historically
terrible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2009 UConn at Cincinnati</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Talk
about two entirely different UConn programs. About the only thing that UConn
team and the 2019 UConn team had in common was Randy Edsall. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UConn wasn’t great by any means in 2009, but
they weren’t bad either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won at
Baylor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They lost by 2 to number 19
UNC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won a double OT game at Notre
Dame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UConn came to Cincinnati having
lost two close games in the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Cincinnati would be their last loss of the season and the game would be
one of the most memorable of 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
game was in prime time on ABC and Zach Collaros had maybe the greatest game
I’ve ever seen a Bearcat quarterback play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Collaros
threw for 480 yards and ran for 75 more, for 3 total tds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The UC offense marched up and down the field
all night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this was the game
where the Bearcat defense, which had been solid for most of the year, began to
really fall apart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats ran out
to a 30 to 10 lead, then after a UConn Td, extended the lead back out to 37 to
17.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UConn returned a punt for a TD, then
after a UC field goal they had a quick TD drive to cut the lead to 8.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC had a rare punt and UConn scored again
with 5:03 left to cut it to 2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
failed on the two point conversion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>UC got
the ball back up 2 with 5 minutes left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Collaros again marched UC right down the field completing 4 straight
passes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC was stopped after 3 runs and
had forth and 1 from the UConn 14.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead of kicking, Kelly left the offense on the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pead beat everyone for a 14 yard touchdown to
put the Bearcats up 9 with just under 2 minutes to play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UConn would score another TD with 13 seconds
left, but UC recovered the onside kick and escaped Nippert with the win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2019 Cincinnati at USF</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It was
ugly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>God was it ugly, but UC escaped USF
with another last second win on a Crosa field goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on SP+ factors UC had about a 20%
chance of winning that game, going by how it was played.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the USF kicker seemed to want UC to
pull it out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first half was an utter
disaster salvaged by the defense not allowing TDs and USF missing field
goals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The second half UC ran the ball
mostly well and doing just enough on offense to tie the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the game tied late, USF again missed a
field goal. UC picked up two huge third downs on the final drive before Crosa
kicked another game winning field goal at the gun.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Where we stand<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcats head to their final home game with a chance to clinch the American
Conference East Division.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ll have
to do so against a Temple team that has beaten the Bearcats four straight
years, including a brutal loss last season where UC blew a second half
lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What scares me right now is the
staff does not seem to have any confidence in the passing game (and Ridder hasn’t
really given them a reason to have confidence).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Last season UC lost the Temple game largely because Temple loaded up
against the run in the second half and dared Ridder to beat them through the
air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The staff all but abandoned any semblance
of trying to pass and UC couldn’t put it away on the ground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC nearly lost to USF in a similar way…abandoning
any hope of moving the ball through the air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They don’t need to be a great passing team, but they need to find a way
to attack down field and loosen up really good Temple defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-21746365449216887512019-10-14T12:30:00.001-04:002019-10-14T12:30:19.999-04:00A Tale of Two Road Games<br />
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
wasn’t planning to go to Tampa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I really
wasn’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game was scheduled on a
Thursday night, I couldn’t convince my normal travel group to make the trip and
I really was broke.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2008/2009 I was
spending every free dollar on Bearcat football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite making it to 4 of the first 5 games of 2009 and 12 of the 14 in
2008 I was prepared to take this one off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I can’t even remember how it happened, but I remember a guy I played a
lot of pickup basketball with at the UC rec saying he wanted to drive
down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He said it would be a quick trip
(he wasn’t exaggerating).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I said, what
the hell, I’m in and just like that I was driving down to Tampa to watch the
Bearcats play the #21 South Florida Bulls on a Thursday night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When I
tell you it was a quick trip, I’m not screwing with you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We left Wednesday night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We drove overnight, straight through.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We arrived at one of the people’s friend’s
house around noon on Thursday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We hung
out at the pool for a few hours, then made our way into the city.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We tailgated briefly, then walked to Raymond
James Stadium for the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We watched
the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Took a few pictures after the
game at the Pirate Ship, then got back in the car and drove back to Cincinnati.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were home somewhere around 36 hours after
we left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But while we were there, we
watched another memorable Bearcat performance.<o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It’s
crazy how different life is in 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
never even considered making the trip to Houston.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, even if I had, that would have been
vetoed immediately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My wife’s friend had
chosen this day to get married and my wife required my attendance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With a 3:30 kickoff and a 5:30 wedding, I was
generously looking at the prospect of watching the first half then figuring it
out for the rest of the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fall
weddings remain the bane of my existence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was a great time, but it would have been a great time in the spring
when I didn’t have to miss some snaps in a UC football game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For a big midseason conference game on the
road, I would be forced to watch what I could of the second half from my cell
phone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A far cry from 2009 when I drove
nearly 2000 miles in 36 or so hours to watch in person.<o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
2009, the Bearcats’ football schedule was backloaded with home games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They opened the season with a win at
Rutgers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their second conference game
was this road trip to South Florida.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
they could somehow manage to beat the Bulls 4 of their next 5 games would be at
Nippert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bulls had opened the season
5-0 including a win at #19 Florida State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They were ranked 21<sup>st</sup> in the country and seen by many as a
contender in the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The game
was in prime time, on ESPN on a Thursday night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was a big game and a huge opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A win and the Bearcats would be 2-0 having
already beaten two potential contenders for the conference championship on the
road with a run of home games to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If they managed to win, it was hard to see the Bearcats losing before
WVU came to Nippert for their second to last conference game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At that point an undefeated season would be
well within their sights.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Though
this Houston team didn’t come in with the pedigree of South Florida in 2009, it
was a similar opportunity for putting UC in the driver’s seat in the
conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Having already beaten UCF,
this figured to be UC’s toughest test before a home tilt with Temple late in
the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After this week the schedule
really opened with a home game against Tulsa, then drawing the three bottom
east teams after the bye week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With that
slate of games, winning at Houston could really set UC up so that they could
lock up the division at home against Temple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Because of all the oddities surrounding Houston this had the makings of
a trap type game, but the opportunity to set their season on a great course
would be there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>There
was a really good crowd at Raymond James Stadium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The place wasn’t full, but I’d bet there were
50,000+ there that night.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was
surprised how many UC fans flooded the upper deck.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A really fun contingent had made the trip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC fell behind 7-3 in the first quarter, but
as they had done often that year they started to separate in the second
quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC scored a touchdown after an
interception put them on a short field to go up 10-7, then scored another TD on
a long touchdown drive when Pike found Armon Binns to go up 17-7.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bulls added a field goal and UC took a
17-10 lead into the locker room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, early in the second half Tony Pike would be forced to leave the
game with an injury and the game was very much in doubt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats would have to turn to sophomore
Zach Collaros to hold on to the 17-10 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It
looked like we might get another repeat of Marshall early against Houston.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats met almost zero resistance in
marching down the field for an opening drive TD.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The big play on the drive was a 44 yard connection
between Ridder and Pierce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After an
interception on their second drive set up a field goal for Houston, the
Bearcats struck immediately with a 75 yard TD pass to an utterly wide open
Rashad Medaris.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the offense
seemed to go into a shell for the rest of the half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats punted on 3 straight
possessions, where they moved the ball a total of 17 yards. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Houston found the endzone on one of their
drives, but the defense set up the offense again for a short field and UC
capitalized allowing them to go into half with a 21-10 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the offense puttering for much of the
half, the game seemed fairly well in hand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Brian
Kelly era is certainly the pinnacle of Bearcat football in my lifetime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC was in a BCS conference, ended up winning
the conference twice in three years, going to two BCS bowls and ran up a 34-6
record in games Kelly coached.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Brian
Kelly era was known for winning, constant winning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, if there is another thing that
seemed to constantly pop up during Kelly’s time at UC it was dealing with
injuries to their quarterbacks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
first season, much of that was brought on by the decision to bring in Ben
Mauk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mauk was an injury plagued,
graduate transfer from Wake Forest. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mauk
was incredibly fun to watch and played with a swagger that instantly endeared
him to UC fans. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who could forget him
chopping wood at Rutgers?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I
remember constantly reading stories about Mauk missing time in practice, or
Mauk throwing a smaller ball to protect his arm during the week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite ongoing injury concerns Mauk managed
to start nearly every game that year, but when he was unable to go Dustin
Grutza filled in admirably.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Grutza
started and helped dominate when UC destroyed Miami and started and split time
with Mauk in a dominant win against Marshall the next week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mauk battled through those injuries playing
most the way the rest of the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>2008
will forever be defined by winning the Big East Championship and making the
Orange Bowl, but it was incredible for the QB issues UC faced game after
game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Grutza started the year as the man
and in his second game at Oklahoma had a very good first half as UC tried to
keep up with an incredible Oklahoma offense, getting it to the locker room at
21 to 13.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Grutza was knocked out of the
game in the second half with what looked like a season ending injury and the
Bearcats turned to Tony Pike.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pike came
in and kept the Bearcats rolling against Miami only to suffer an injury of his
own the next week at Akron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pike would
have to have surgery and miss 3-4 weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats replaced him with Zach Collaros, who helped finish a drive
that got them in position for a field goal which turned out to be the game winner.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Zach wouldn’t keep the job.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The next two weeks the Bearcats turned to
Chaz Anderson pulling out wins over Marshall and Rutgers (the later will
forever be the Kevin Huber game to me…a real punt fest).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pike attempted to come back to disastrous
results against UConn, but was able to get it together for the end of the
season, starting every game in the Bearcats’ five straight wins to lock up the
conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately, he would
struggle in their final game against Hawaii and Dustin Grutza would come back
from the injury to lead a great fourth quarter comeback.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Four QBs, each contributing to wins in an 11
win season, culminating in an Orange Bowl.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
2009, Tony Pike had taken every meaningful snap going into the USF game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC was rolling and he was a huge reason
why.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Up until that point, the only time
UC fans had watched Collaros was that brief stretch at Akron.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And so it was, that Zach Collaros stepped in
against USF, hoping to hold onto a 17-10 lead, on the road against the number
21 team in the country.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
talented USF defense seemed ready to make a play, when Collaros entered the
game at QB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats ran the ball
twice to start his day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pead lost a yard
then Collaros ran for no game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC faced
a third and eleven on their own 25.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then
came what I still consider the biggest (non Pitt game) play of the 2009 Bearcat
football season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I remember watching the
play from the upper deck at Raymond James Stadium and the elation flowing
through me as I saw the field open up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Collaros took the snap and UC ran a designed sneak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He caught a couple of blocks upfield, then
sprung free.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had a first down and was
in a footrace for the endzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Collaros
prevailed in the footrace giving the Bearcats a 24-10 lead they would never
look back from.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Zach
would later throw an interception and set USF up for a short TD drive to make
it 24-17.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He immediately responded with
a six play, 70 yard touchdown drive of his own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On the drive he ran twice for 14 yards including his second TD rush of
the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He completed a 43 yard pass to
Ben Guidugli and a 15 yard pass to Isaiah Peed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After the defense forced a three and out Collaros would lead the
Bearcats on another long drive, this time settling for a FG to put UC up
34-17.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That would be the final
score.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pike had gone down and Collaros
had answered the bell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He would do so
time and time again that season until Pike’s return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats were 2-0 in the Big East, having
already beaten two contenders on the road.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They had a lot of games at Nippert on the horizon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The feeling that this team could run the
table and even be in the national title hunt was building.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Houston
came out in the second half against Cincinnati determined to make it
interesting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On their 4<sup>th</sup>
play of the drive they connected for a 69 yard TD to cut UC’s lead to
21-17.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The teams traded punts, before UC
missed a field goal on its second drive of the half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s offense had failed to score on 6 of its
last 7 drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its only TD came courtesy
of the defense forcing and interception and giving UC a very short field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s biggest issue and the one glaring thing
that holds this team back right now is the offense goes through stretches where
it is very ineffective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this
season when that has happened (outside of the OSU game) the defense has bailed
them out.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
that is again what happened Saturday.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After UC missed its field goal, the defense forced a fumble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcat offense capitalized going 34
yards in 7 plays for a touchdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, Houston struck back with a TD of their own to make it a five
point game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They missed the two point conversion
that would have cut it to three.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nine
minutes left in the game and everything was very much in doubt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was good to see the Bearcats respond with
at least a field goal on their next drive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Tre Tucker had a nice return and despite two penalties before the ball
was even snapped, the Bearcat offense overcame the 1<sup>st</sup> and 20
picking up a few first downs before kicking a field goal to go up eight.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>By that
time the cocktail hour at the wedding had ended and I was sitting at the table
as salad was being delivered, with my phone in my lap and youtubetv streaming.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was trying not to make it noticeable, but
my wife made a few annoyed comments about it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>No surprise the Bearcat defense came up with another huge play to ice
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pass was deflected behind the
line of scrimmage and Perry Young ran under it as if that was how the play had
been designed the entire time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He caught
the pass and waltzed into the endzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UC fans could breathe easy. The Bearcats were escaping Houston with a
hard fought win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I threw my fist in the
air and did a couple fist shakes, before putting my phone away for the rest of
the wedding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As the
Bearcats enter the back half of their schedule, it is hard not to start looking
ahead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The next four are against
probably the four worst teams in the conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tulsa has shown flashes, but UC gets them at
home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A trip to ECU after a buy week
should be scare free and UConn might as well not even get off the bus on
November 9.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>USF has shown some signs of
life, so that game on November 16 may be a bit scary when it gets there, but as
we stand it’s hard to imagine UC not going into the Temple game 9-1 with a
chance to clinch the Eastern Division of the AAC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s win at Houston successfully got them
through a potential land mind, and now the next four games are about taking
care of business against lesser teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If they do, they’ll set up an exciting last 2 (hopefully 3 games including
the AAC Championship) and an opportunity to be playing in a major bowl for the
first time since 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-12836067576665946032019-10-08T13:09:00.002-04:002019-10-08T13:09:13.915-04:00Are We Ready to Believe?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We
thought this could be a special season for the Cincinnati Bearcats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last year’s 11-2 ascension seemingly came out
of nowhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That wasn’t happening this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC had a target and the look of one of the
favorites in a deeper than ever American Athletic Conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats were very up and down to start
the year, but beat the teams they should have beat to keep their season on
track.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The trip to Marshall gave a taste
of what could be and then Friday night, in front of a sell out crowd at Nippert
stadium the Bearcats made us believe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats became the first AAC team the last 3 seasons to beat UCF
and in doing so put themselves firmly in the AAC conference race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Friday night at Nippert was a celebration of
Bearcat football and hopefully a return to something truly special.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It
really started a week prior.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were
waiting for this Bearcat football team to give a top performance from beginning
to end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That Saturday night in
Huntington, West Virginia they delivered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Most Bearcat fans thought Marshall would be a real test.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They went to Boise State and held Boise State
to 14 points, losing by a touchdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They were the favorite in Conference USA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats dispatched with the Thundering
Herd before you could even blink.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was
the kind of performance UC hasn’t really delivered despite their success the
last two seasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Too often UC has
started slow and sluggish.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This time
they scored nearly every time they touched the ball running out to a 42-0 lead
and never looking back.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What I
really appreciated about the Marshall performance was UC going against tendency
early in the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Too often UC has
started slow, running into stacked fronts, not pushing downfield when teams
sell out to stop the run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Against
Marshall they came out and put pressure on the back of the Marshall
defense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ridder delivered with maybe his
best overall performance as a Bearcat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC
ran out to a huge lead and the running game was as affective as always as the
game went on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That win set up Friday at
Nippert, an opportunity for the Bearcats to get their first win over a ranked
team in a decade (since 2009 in fact, where the Bearcats beat 3 ranked teams on
their way to an undefeated season).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Our
tailgate group has gotten smaller in recent years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I do think the Tuberville era is a part of it
as it got less fun for many to come to Nippert.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The other issue has been people moving out of town making it harder to
get to the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This week instead of
setting up our own tailgate behind Martinos where we have been tailgating for a
decade, we joined up with another tailgate on The Grid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve been on The Grid a few times, but never
for a full tailgate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC has just done a
great job with it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The place is packed
and active.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The catwalk is amazing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was great getting to party on The
Grid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
story of the first half was the Cincinnati defense in the redzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For a half, UCF moved the ball up and down
the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first drive was largely
aided by penalties, but time and time again in the first half UCF moved into
scoring position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And nearly every time
the Bearcat defense held.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCF settled
for a field goal on their first drive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then on the second drive they marched down the field again before a Cam
Jefferies INT at the goal line and big return flipped the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the second quarter UCF had drives of 10
plays and 8 plays end in field goals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Their only touchdown came on a short field (12 yards) after a Ridder
interception.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though UC trailed 16 to 10
at the half, the defenses ability prevent touchdowns had kept them in the game.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I
thought the offensive gameplan was conservative and put UC at risk in the first
half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like UCF, UC’s only first half
touchdown came on a short field after forcing a turnover.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other than that, the Bearcat offense did very
little all half and seemed reluctant to challenge UCF down the field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC’s first two drives ended with 2 yard dump
offs to Michael Warren on Third and 10 and third and 14, respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On their final drive of the half UC could
have at least taken a shot at the endzone with a Hail Mary, but chose to go in
the locker room down 6.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a
generally frustrating game plan from the offense, but the defense had kept UC
in it by preventing touchdowns and creating the only UC touchdown drive by
giving them a 16 yard field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it
turned out, the Bearcat defense would be even better in the second half. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And
Nippert was rocking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The energy of the
crowd was felt from kickoff until the final snap.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The students were there and loud early.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every third down, hell almost every down, the
crowd was in it, making noise and trying to help disrupt the UCF offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I sit in the corner of the endzone near the
field and the noise on the field is always evident from that spot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As someone who has been lucky enough to
travel the country and visit some great stadiums, it’s always impressive how truly
exceptional Nippert Stadium can be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGH-C2BW4AEnUt5?format=jpg&name=medium" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGH-C2BW4AEnUt5?format=jpg&name=medium" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo From @chadbrendel <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadBrendel/status/1180503929462951936">https://twitter.com/ChadBrendel/status/1180503929462951936</a></td></tr>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>That
energy was in full force in the second half, when the Bearcat defense
suffocated the great UCF offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, it was the offense that got things started.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats came out aggressive in the
second half completing their first two passes and quickly moving into UCF
territory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those completions lead to
some success running the football.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ultimately the drive stalled largely because of a holding penalty, but
the Bearcats kicked a field goal to get within three. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bearcat defense really took over from there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They forced two straight three and outs where UCF lost 21 yards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then on their third drive of the second,
Gabriel tried to throw a quick pass to the sideline and Ahmad Gardner made the
play of the season to this point, stepping in front of the pass and taking it
to the house.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suddenly UC had a lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCF had the ball 5 times in the third quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They lost 21 yards in the first 3 possessions
and threw a pick six.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had 1 first
down in the quarter, punted 4 times and were intercepted 1 time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This might have been the single best quarter
of football I’ve ever seen a Bearcat defense play.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Then on
the last play of the third quarter the truck busted free.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A couple quick cuts and Warren was into the
open field.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The end of the play was
particularly great as his last cuts forced to pursuing defenders to take each
other out, colliding into each other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats then scored on the first play of the fourth quarter when
Ridder found Alec Pierce in the corner of the endzone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just like that UC was in control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It only
took the dominant week one win over Rutgers for most UC fans to realize 2009
could be an incredibly special season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This was the week when that idea became real in 2019.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UCF made the game interesting at the
end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had a quick touchdown drive
and two point conversion to get within three.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>UC got the ball back trying to run the clock out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Twice it looked like they picked up the first
down but twice the refs spotted the ball just before the sticks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That left Fickell with a fourth down decision
that I don’t really believe was a decision at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC needed a few inches to ice the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They lined up and got those few inches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite my concerns regarding the staff too
often being passive and playing to tendency on offense, this is the kind of
situation where they always make the right call.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They trust their guys to finish instead of
putting the game in the hands of the opposing offense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The staff has a ton of great qualities, but this
is one that has consistently stood out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Weeks 4
and 5 in 2009 were less interesting than this year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC took care of Fresno State at home then went
to Miami and beat the Redhawks for a 5<sup>th</sup> straight season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Five games in and the Bearcats were finished
with their nonconference slate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Similarly, the Bearcats have finished their nonconference slate this
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From here on out, the Bearcats
will be playing conference games.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
likely need to run the table to have a shot at a major, New Year’s Bowl.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2009 the Bearcats were facing a trip to
Tampa against the 21<sup>st</sup> ranked South Florida Bulls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
year’s Bearcats head to Houston, a team many thought would contend in the
league, one capable of scoring in a hurry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Next week is an enormous game, particularly when it comes to winning the
east.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A win and suddenly UC has a slate
where they can run off some wins before the two huge games to close the
season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A win next Saturday and a
Division Championship will be firmly in their sights.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-87685093224083344172019-09-19T13:26:00.001-04:002019-09-19T13:26:25.981-04:00Taking Care of Business<br />
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Saturday
marked 14 years in a row the Bearcats have beaten the Miami Redhawks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of those games haven’t even been close.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Miami had a stretch of games during
Tuberville and the one year following Tuberville where they had their
opportunities, but as the Fickell era of UC football gets rolling it has become
increasingly clear Miami missed their window.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats are likely to continue beating down the Redhawks for years
to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite the slow start,
ultimately, this year was no different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats took care of business and now get a week off before maybe
the key 3 game stretch of the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
biggest nonconference test of the season for the 2009 Bearcats also came at
OSU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Week three in 2009 the Bearcats
made their way out to Corvallis, Oregon to take on the Oregon State
Beavers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Beavers were coming off a
9-4 season (7-2 in the PAC 12).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
Beaver team would go all the way up to number 13 in the rankings by
December.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was a real test for the
Bearcats, one the Bearcat passed again with flying colors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was the one game I was not able to
attend in 2009, but I can remember exactly where I was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was house/dog sitting a house and partying
with friends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I spent
the day drinking beers and ziplining into the pond with a few others who came
to enjoy the weekend with me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Honestly,
if I wasn’t going to be at the game it was a perfect way to spend the lead up
to the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats started slow,
not scoring in the first quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, the defense held Oregon State to two field goals and the
Bearcats were only down 6-0 after 1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much
as it did against Rutgers, the offense took off in the second quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats had touchdown drives on 9 plays,
80 yards, 9 plays 77 yards and 3 plays 60 yards, to take a 21-8 lead into the
half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Likewise,
it was a slow start for the Bearcats against the Redhawks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it felt like the Bearcats were going
backwards for a while, it’s because they were.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats’ first drive went for negative 13 yards and after a Miami
touchdown their second drive went for -6 yards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It’s no surprise Bearcat fans were a little anxious when Miami kicked a
field goal to take a 10-0 lead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However,
after that Miami drive the defense and offense both seemed to get it together
and the UC talent took over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They held
Miami scoreless the rest of the half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UC
responded to the 10-0 deficit with a long touchdown drive of their own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The teams traded punts for a while after, but
the Bearcats put the ball in the endzone to end the half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The key play on that drive was Fickell opting
to go for it on 4<sup>th</sup> and 6 from the Miami forty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ridder completed an 11 yard pass to Medaris
and capped off the drive with another Michael Warren TD run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All in all 14-10 didn’t feel great, but it
could have been a lot worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>After a
blistering second quarter the 2009 Bearcats didn’t play a particularly clean
second half against Oregon State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Beavers started the half with a quick touchdown drive and the Bearcat offense
did very little in response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had a
3 and out followed by an interception then another 3 an out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their 3 third quarter drives totaled 48
yards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oregon State kicked a field goal
early in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 3 (21-18).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As they had in the second quarter the Bearcat
offense responded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They immediately
marched down the field for a touchdown drive stretching the lead back out to 10
with about 8 minutes left in the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The defense forced an interception and the offense moved the ball again
before missing a field goal that would have put the Bearcats up 13.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By that time there was only 1:30 left in the game
and everything was still well in hand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Bearcats escaped a good Oregon State team with a 10 point win in a
game they mostly controlled despite playing two fairly poor quarters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oregon State was a PAC 10 contender and the Bearcats
had proven to be clearly the better team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
second half of the battle for the Victory Bell was the dominant performance
Cincinnati fans have grown to expect in that game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats started with a touchdown drive
and never really looked back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
defense suffocated Miami for the entire second half.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats forced a 3 and out on 3 of Miami’s
6 second half drives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The other drives
included a 4 play drive ending with a turnover on downs, a 5 play drive with
one first down and then one drive where Miami moved the ball a little bit
before kicking an irrelevant field goal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The defensive dominance allowed the offense to find itself with a couple
big plays.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ridder connected with Geddis
for a 51 yard TD, then Warren broke off a 73 yard touchdown run on the next UC
drive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was 35 to 13 by the time the
game entered the fourth quarter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was
no doubt UC would be keeping the bell in Cincinnati.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
second half performance can’t overshadow the clear issues that need to get
corrected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The offensive line has really
struggled at times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those first few
drives UC had no room to do anything.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Miami pushed the line around more than they should have been able to,
forcing Warren to break tackles or make people miss in the backfield and
putting Ridder under some pressure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Additionally, Ridder continued to struggle finding receivers when his
primary target is taken away.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Right
before the half there was a key play where Deguara broke wide open, Ridder had
time, but didn’t see him and dumped off to Warren.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those kind of plays happen too often.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When his first read is there, Ridder can be
very accurate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He threw some great
passes today, particularly the Geddis TD pass and the Deguara TD.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3 weeks in and it is still hard to know what
to expect from this team going forward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They soundly beat an inferior Miami team, but once again showed the
issues that could hold them back.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>So the
Bearcats head into a bye week with the record everyone expected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They won both games at Nippert and won them
both rather convincingly and lost to an elite Ohio State team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They showed plenty of concerns but enough
positives to remain optimistic about the season to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The three weeks following the bye will likely
define their season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their final
nonconference game is a road test at a solid Marshall team, picked by many to
win CUSA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ridder and the offense
struggled on the road last season and though it is unfair to hold OSU against
them too much, it didn’t do anything to alleviate that concern.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The defense should be able to largely limit
Marshall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the offense does its part
they should get out of Huntington with a win, but it will be a real test.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>That
test is followed by the biggest game of the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats almost certainly can’t win the
conference without a home win over UCF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Giving UCF the tiebreaker in the division likely will wrap up the
division and even if it doesn’t (maybe a 3 way tie with Temple is conceivably
still in play) it makes it essential for UC to win at Houston and at Memphis
(in addition to holding serve home against Temple).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If UC is to be an AAC contender, they must
win against UCF.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And UCF could be as
good as ever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Real tests, real opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Bearcats took care of business against
Miami and retained the Victory Bell for the fourteenth straight season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The season will be defined by weeks to
come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6214327940519474715.post-11683953567018246872019-09-12T11:05:00.000-04:002019-09-12T11:05:09.657-04:00Total Mismatches<br />
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That was disheartening.
It’s not surprising the Bearcats got run off the field by the
Buckeyes. Ohio State is one of the three
most talented teams in the country and assuming Fields can be elite against top
competition they are a true national title contender. However, this game was pretty much a
worst-case scenario any way you slice it.
After the blocked field goal there was never a moment you really felt
the Bearcats had any chance. The
offensive and defensive lines were both dominated and there were few moments
where the Bearcats really threatened.
When they actually did move the ball they made costly mistakes to keep
points off the board. It was a brutal game.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I
thought the coaches set the tone for the game early and that tone was, “we’re
scared to be here.” OSU moved the ball
on its first drive, but the Bearcat defense eventually got a stop. A perfect punt pinned Cincinnati back at the
one. The coaches sent the offense on the
field and literally wasted a play. They
lined up in an odd, compact formation that had the entire OSU team in middle
field. From that formation they had
Ridder sneak for no gain. What was the
best case scenario for that play? Two
yards up the middle? You’re still
handing the ball off in your endzone or passing from your own end zone on 2<sup>nd</sup>
down. First down is your friend. It’s how you protect against the safety, by
keeping them off balance. Everyone knew
a sneak was coming. The play call
basically ensured UC would give the ball back to OSU where OSU was positioned
to get a TD. That’s exactly what
happened. That scared call exemplified
the play all game long.<o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
Bearcats’ 2009 week two matchup could not have been any more of a polar
opposite. The Bearcats returned home to
Nippert to take on Southeast Missouri State.
After the beating UC laid on Rutgers, everyone was sure this was a “pick
your score,” type game. The Bearcats
wound up picking 70-3. Their first game
had put the Bearcats in the top 25 (number 23).
UC did everything you’d expect in their second game in rolling Southeast
Missouri State. I don’t have much more
to say about it. Two games in and the
sky was the limit for the 2009 Bearcats.<o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
bottom line of this game was Cincinnati’s two glaring weaknesses were exposed
against superior talent…inexperience on the offensive and defensive lines. The Bearcat offensive line was pushed around
all game and the dominant OSU defensive line gave them no moments of
reprieve. UC couldn’t run the ball and
Ridder was under constant duress, particularly when OSU brought any pressure at
all. The defensive line really felt the
loss of Broughton and Copeland, two NFL type defensive tackles. OSU pushed around a talented, young defensive
line that simply was out of its depth.
Cincinnati could not overcome those two problem areas. <o:p></o:p></div>
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I know
they gave up 42 points, but I wasn’t altogether discouraged by the defensive
performance. They had their moments.
They got a key stop on the first drive and forced a huge turnover on downs to
keep UC in the game early. I thought you
saw the talent at times making an elite Ohio State offense work. Fields fit the balls into the windows that
were there and the defensive line didn’t get enough pressure which opened
things up, but overall I thought the defense wasn’t so bad…they were just up
against a behemoth. If the offense gave
UC anything, it’s likely a 31-17 type game…not the 42-0 bloodbath we saw.<o:p></o:p></div>
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What I
saw from the offense concerns me, even though Ohio State is the type of elite
defense UC won’t see again this season.
Last season the Bearcat offense was mostly good against teams with
lesser defensive talent. They wore teams
down with the run and Ridder made plays with his feet and passing down the
field. For the most part they were also
exceptional on third down. However, twice
last year it really stood out to me that there wasn’t a plan B. The UC offense really struggled against above
average defenses. Temple absolutely shut
UC down in the second half, as did UCF. UC just couldn’t move the ball or pick
up key third downs against the better competition. <o:p></o:p></div>
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I know
Ohio State is a different level, but I thought the offenses lack of creativity
and versatility really stood out against the Buckeyes. Even lesser talented teams often find ways to
create matchups and move the ball against top teams, but that wasn’t the
case. UC wasn’t able to pound the ball
on the ground and showed little ingenuity in creating favorable matchups. This doesn’t have to be the case all year and
Ohio State is an outlier matchup for UC.
I doubt UC gets shutout again (and wouldn’t have been shutout here
except for two turnovers near the goal line and a blocked FG), but a team like
UCF doesn’t have to shut UC out to win.
UC is going to have to be flexible in how they attack the better teams
on the schedule. It was an issue last
year, one that I don’t feel any better about after the game against Ohio
State. <o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
Bearcats and Buckeyes have played 6 times since 1999 with the Buckeyes winning
all six. That’s not surprising. Five of the games were in Columbus. The Buckeyes are an elite program. The one game in Cincinnati was not
surprisingly the closest despite it being a National Championship Buckeye team. It’s hard to beat elite programs on their
home field. I’d love to get one into
Nippert one day, but until then these are always going to be incredible uphill
battles.<o:p></o:p></div>
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It’s
odd that the three UC teams that gave the Buckeyes their best games were
probably the three worst Bearcat teams to face them. Here’s how I’d rank the UC teams that played
Ohio State:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2006<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2019<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2004<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->4.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2002<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->5.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->2014<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->6.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->1999<o:p></o:p></div>
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You can quibble
with the order if you want, but I think that is relatively fair. The teams that faired the best against the
Buckeyes were the 2002, 1999 and 2014. I
think there were a few reasons for that.
I think it’s telling that the three worst performances for UC were with
coaches who formerly coached for the Buckeyes.
I don’t think Dantonio or Fickell ever seemed particularly invested in
the idea that UC could compete in those games.
They were conservative, they didn’t try to create advantageous matchups
or big plays the way they would need to win those games. Compare that to the three other games UC
played against OSU.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The
2014 Bearcats had an inflated record due to playing a fairly weak schedule, but
they had one really strong thing going for them…elite collegiate wide
receivers. The UC staff really took
advantage of this and made the game against OSU very interesting for 3
quarters. This was exemplified by UC
repeatedly taking shots down field to Chris Moore, who delivered with 3 catches
for 221 yards, all going for touchdowns.
The biggest play of the game was an absurd offensive pass interference call
against UC when the OSU defender basically tackled the UC receiver who had him
beat. Everything changed after that and
OSU ran away in the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter, but UC made it interesting with an
aggressive attitude. (UC also had a TD
called back on an illegal man downfield call which while technically correct is
almost never called when the lineman is only a couple yards past the line of
scrimmage). <o:p></o:p></div>
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1999
is probably the forgotten UC v. Ohio State game. I remember how excited I was when I found out
I was going to that game. OSU still had
the old, temporary bleachers at the Horseshoe and UC fans were stuffed down
there. 1999 might be the weirdest season
I can remember as a Bearcat fan. It was
a bad year. The Bearcats finished 3-8. They dominated Kent State in week one, but
then week two lost to then Division 1AA Troy State (now in the FBS and going by
Troy). They followed that up with the
craziest win of my lifetime (not the best or craziest game mind you) beating
Ron Dayne’s eventual big ten champion and Rose Bowl champion Wisconsin
team. The next week, UC went to
OSU. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The
Bearcats came out fast. They went out to
a 10-3 lead, spreading the field and letting Kenner pick his targets. UC was just into OSU territory when they came
out in 5 wide. I remember saying to the
fans around me that the middle is wide open for a QB draw, something Minter
liked to run out of the five wide. Sure
enough, UC ran it and Kenner took it the distance for a TD to put the Bearcats
up 17-3. At that point the temporary
bleachers were shaking as UC fans were going nuts. UC got the ball back late in the 2<sup>nd</sup>
quarter and put themselves in field goal range.
They missed the FG which would have made it 20-3 (and likely would have
gone to the half at that score). Instead
OSU got a short field, scored a TD and cut the lead to 17-10 at the half. The Bearcats continued to move the ball in
the second half, putting up over 500 yards of offense on the game, but didn’t
finish any drives. They lost 34-20. That Bearcat team would go winless in CUSA
losing 4 one possession games and 2 two possession games. Their only other win was over Miami
(OH). <o:p></o:p></div>
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Then
there was 2002. The only time Ohio State
dared to come to Cincinnati and not coincidentally the closest UC came to beating
the Buckeyes. Probably the biggest thing
that UC team had going for it was NFL players on the defensive line. Antwan Peek in particular was in the backfield
all game and was a disruptive force against the OSU offense. That defense also featured a young Trent
Cole. Though UC broke a couple of runs,
they knew they couldn’t sustain drives that way and often spread UC out
allowing Geno to find holes. Though only
a sophomore, Geno threw 52 times that day and drove UC into position to win the
game. He threw two catchable balls in
the endzone on the final drive that Olinger and Murray failed to bring in. That was that. UC missed its chance in Cincinnati, and the
Buckeyes went on the win the national championship. <o:p></o:p></div>
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It’s
notable that UC didn’t get the chance to play the Buckeyes while at its
peak. From 2007-2012 the Bearcats won 4
conference championships in a BCS conference (the Big East). That conference often finished ahead of the
Big 10 in sagarin’s conference strength measure. It was a fluke of timing, but still quite
disappointing that the best teams UC had to offer weren’t the ones that had the
chance to challenge the Buckeyes. <o:p></o:p></div>
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#<o:p></o:p></div>
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Where
does the season go from here? We knew
last year was a gift. UC was ahead of schedule
in developing its defense and the benefitted from a light, manageable
schedule. This year the schedule was
more daunting and while UC has a ton of experience back, there were big
experience holes on offensive and defensive lines. Additionally, injuries really hurt two of UC’s
biggest strengths: 1. the defensive backfield’s potential to be dominant with
Wiggins’ flexibility and skill; and 2. depth and versatility at running back. Ohio State was a singular force that punished
UC for those issues. No team on the schedule
will be able to do so to that degree, but UC still needs to find answers to how
it will stop the stronger offenses on the schedule and how it will move the
ball against competent defenses. If they
develop answers to those questions this can still be a great season that builds
on last year…with a real chance to win the conference. If not we’re likely looking at a good team that
just wasn’t quite there yet. It is
essential that UC responds this week against Miami before going to a bye week
that sets up the key stretch of the season. <o:p></o:p></div>
Bearcatmarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586915753379798946noreply@blogger.com0