Bearcatmark's Blog: I May Be Wrong, But I Doubt it

Obama's Failed Presidency

2011-09-08T17:17:00.001-07:00

As I listened to the president who I voted for, who I will almost undoubtedly vote for again ask the questions tonight of where would we be if Lincoln had not built the intercontinental railroad despite the civil war? Or started the National Academy of Sciences? where would we be right now if the people who sat here before us decided not to build our highways and our bridges; our dams and our airports? What would this country be like if we had chosen not to spend money on public high schools, or research universities, or community colleges? How many jobs would it have cost us if past Congresses decided not to support the basic research that led to the Internet and the computer chip?

As I heard him say those things I could not help but think “where were these words 2 years ago when you had to sell the American public on what government could do?” Where were these words when you started from such a position of weakness by throwing a Republican party incentives even when the party had no desire to support you in anything you ever did no matter what? For years democrats have been afraid to try to sell the American public one what Government has done and the many ways it has been the vision of our leaders in the past that has helped contribute to the great country we have today.

Instead we sit in a country where people want to go backwards. Where the accomplishments and the progress we made for so many years are threatened with demise. It's an easy to sell to say that “you can spend your money better than the government.” Or that government is too big. It is particularly easy when government gets as nasty as it has in recent years. When the business becomes winning elections instead of taking care of the American people. People can fathom that.

It's a much harder sell to try to explain all that government has done in the past to make this country great.

FDR once said: Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country.

When the government invests in our future on a large scale its doing the type of investment that cannot be done by one or two people. The intercontinental railroad spurned industry in so many ways. It connected the country in ways it had not been before. Can you imagine a world without roads to drive on or highways to travel on? We certainly would not be living the life we are today. The government funded universities that have done some of our best research that have pioneered innovation like the internet. For years people have not been willing to make that case.

People do not think about all the ways these government investments, the foresight our past leaders had to push these programs...they do no realize how much they have pushed American on and enhanced our every day lives. They do not realize it because they cannot see a world without. Well the sad truth is we are pushing to a world without it and the politics of the last 20-30 years...the failure of government to act with foresight, to invest in infrastructure and the future of America has been leading us down the hole we are in right now.

We needed a bigger, badder stimulus two years ago. We needed to fix two decades of government stagnation. Of a world where Congress lived election to election afraid to do anything at all. Had the democrats lost the house, and senate and white house actually stepping up to the plate and doing what was right I would have been alright with that. But now we sit and the accomplishments of this Administration have been minor. Yes I loved the repeal of don't ask don't tell, and the health care bill was a step in the right direction, but we needed more...instead we got appeasement. We got an administration that seemingly wanted to include a Republican party that had no desire to really be included unless they got their way.

So here we sit now... Obama says words that I have been waiting forever for a president, or any democratic leader, to say and yet he says them at a time where his ability to do anything of significance is nonexistent. The Democrats have already lost the house in historic fashion, the senate margin is thin, and Obama's approvals are at all time lows. Right now the president is acting from a position of weakness. This type of speech should have defined his presidency. He should have put his reelection hopes on what government could do and used his huge house and senate majorities to do it.

Instead he refused to make the hard sell. He tried to be all things to all people. Now the recovery we have had (and yes there has been some, just not enough, particularly in jobs) has leveled off. We did not do enough and Obama's reelection hopes mainly stem on the ineptitude of the opposition... either way his ability to do something truly historic, to change the tide of history back to one of vision that so many leaders of the past have shown, from Lincoln, to Teddy Roosevelt to FDR, Truman and JFK...to the many great congress men and women who did so much... to bring back a government that invests in its people and moves us towards a brighter future. That opportunity is lost now. And to me that may be the defining characteristic of Obama's presidency.

Thoughts on Tournament Field

2011-03-17T07:08:00.001-07:00

Grading The Selection Committee

Like many of those who try to pick the field I missed some teams this year. I had Alabama, VT, and Colorado in and the committee selected Georgia, UAB and VCU. I don't have a problem with any of the exclusions (though I am very surprised by Colorado who I think looked like a tournament team and had the wins of a tournament team), but I do think the UAB inclusion was a bad one. UAB was 1-4 against the RPI top 50 (the one win over VCU) and 9-8 against the RPI top 100 (that is a decent amount of top 100 wins as far as that goes). Clearly, the committee chose to value UAB winning the Conference USA title (conference USA was 8^th in the RPI this). To me UAB showed they could beat NIT caliber teams not NCAA caliber teams. I think there were better teams available.

The common trend among those who were excluded was bad non-conference strength of schedules. The committee has always emphasized the non-conference strength of schedule, but they really sent a message with it this year. Colorado, Bama and VT had non-conference strength of schedules of 331, 294, and 153. At the end of the day this is what got them left out. Alabama in fact had better wins than Georgia and beat Georgia twice, but because Georgia scheduled better they were a 10 seed while Bama was at home. Honestly I have no problem when the committee sends this message. They have been doing it for years. When you play a non-conference schedule that is as bad as these teams you better have an overwhelming overall resume or you will be left at home.

As far as overall seeding I did not have any big issues with any of the seeds. I thought Georgetown was too high, but they were rewarded for a great SOS and stellar RPI numbers, which is fine. I had Notre Dame as a 1 seed over Duke, but the Duke choice is fine (and in fact I think they are my favorite to win the whole thing). I had Uconn as the last two seed and SD State as the top 3, and it appears the committee went the other way around. Even the teams I was off on I am fine with the committee's placement. I had Missouri as a 9 seed, but the way they finished and their performance away from home this year an 11 is reasonable. I thought Penn State was too high as a 10 especially when you compare them to a team like Marquette, but the committee gets 1 seed line to play with so you never know if they had to move them or not. To me no teams that were excluded had an ironclad case to get in and only 1 team included had a poor case to get in (UAB).

Today is the start of my favorite 4 game stretch of the season. Here are the first round games I am most looking forward to.

Thursday 12pm on CBS, WVU v Clemson- I always look forward to watching Huggins teams play and this is a very dangerous 5/12 game. Clemson has a big disadvantage of having played in Dayton in the late game Tuesday and then having to fly to St Pete for the noon game Thursday, but Clemson is playing really good basketball and I think Brad Brownell is one hell of a coach. As much as Huggins has got out of this WVU team, they have to execute at a very high level to win games, because they just do not have individuals who can take over. I like WVU in this one but it could be close.

Thursday 1:30 pm on TBS, Louisville v Morehead State- Morehead State has one of the best players in the tournament in Kenneth Faried. I'm really excited to see him play against a team as good as Louisville and think he could give them trouble. I have Louisville going all the way to the elite eight, but I would not be shocked if Morehead State gave them all they could handle. Last year's OVC champion Murray State won a game in the tournament last season.

Thursday 7PM on CBS, BYU vs. Wofford- Wofford is an experienced team that played really well last year in the tournament. BYU has been great all year and has an absolutely stellar record against tournament teams, but they have been missing something since the Davies suspension. Of course I am stoked to watch Jimmer, but I think this game has the potential to be the biggest upset of the first round.

Thursday 7:15 on TruTv, Wisconsin vs. Belmont- I'm very excited to watch Belmont play. They are a deep squad that just destroyed the Atlantic Sun this year. Ken Pom's efficiency rankings really thought highly of this squad. When Wisconsin players their best they are a top 15 caliber team, but they can look very ugly at times. This is another game that has the potential to be an upset (and has been a very trendy upset pick).

Thursday 9:45 pm on TNT, Cincinnati v Missouri- Not much introduction needed here. Been waiting 6 years for this game.

Friday 12 pm on CBS, Texas v Oakland- Texas has at times looked like the best team in the country but really struggled down the stretch. If those struggles continue this Oakland team is capable of beating them.

Friday 7:15 pm on TruTv, Xavier v Marquette- I am very much interested in seeing how much in Xavier's “improvement” is actual improvement and how much is from playing in the Atlantic Ten. I think the 11^th place team in the Big East has to be thrilled with the draw they got and could very well beat Xavier in this game.

Friday 9:45 pm on TNT, Georgetown v VCU- Many did not like the VCU selection, but they are a very dangerous team and I think were worthy given their wins over the course of the year. Georgetown really struggled down the stretch. The big question here is does Chris Wright come back and how effective is he? With a healthy, effective Chris Wright Georgetown is a very dangerous 6 seed. Without him they could be one and done.

Potential First Round Upsets (11 seed or higher winning)

12 Clemson over 5 WVU

11 Marquette over 6 Xavier

13 Oakland over 4 Texas

14 Wofford over 3 BYU

11 Gonzaga over 6 St Johns

13 Belmont over 4 Wisconsin

12 Utah State over 5 Kansas State

11 VCU over 6 Georgetown

12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt

Potential Sweet 16 sleepers (7 seeds and below)

11 Marquette

7 Washington

9 Tennessee

13 Oakland

10 Michigan State

11 Gonzaga

13 Belmont

My Elite Eight

Pitt

Florida

Notre Dame

Louisville

Cincinnati

Duke

Syracuse

Kentucky

My Final Four

Kentucky

Duke

Notre Dame

Pitt

Championship

Duke over Pitt

Selection Sunday Final Bracket

2011-03-13T10:37:00.000-07:00

I won't be able to do a bracket after the games are played today so there could be some changes but here is my final bracket.

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Florida, Uconn

Three Seeds- San Diego State, Texas, Louisville, Kentucky

Four Seeds- Syracuse, BYU, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- St Johns, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona

Six Seeds- Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, Washington, UCLA, UNLV

Eight Seeds- Georgetown, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Marquette

Nine Seeds- Michigan, Old Dominion, Missouri, Butler

Ten Seeds- Villanova, llinois, George Mason, Colorado

Eleven Seeds- Clemson, Michigan State, Richmond, Virginia Tech

Twelve Seeds- Florida State/Alabama, Memphis, Utah State, Penn State/USC

Thirteen Seeds- Princeton, Oakland, Belmont, Morehead State

Fourteen Seeds- Indiana State, Bucknell, Long Island U, Wofford

Fifteen Seeds- St Peters, Northern Colorado, Akron, UCSB

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Arkansas State/Hampton, UTSA/Ark Little Rock

Last 6 In

Richmond

Virginia Tech

Florida State

Penn State

USC

Alabama

First 6 Out

St Mary's

Georgia

Harvard

Boston College

UAB

VCU

Here is my selection Sunday bracket projection. The last team I have in the field is Alabama. This bracket will work if Richmond wins the A10 and Ohio State wins the Big Ten. If Dayton wins today I think they would go in as a 13 seed and would knock Alabama out of the tournament. If Penn State wins they will move up to probably a 10 or 11 seed. Automatic bids also do not play in the play in game. If that were the case then Virginia Tech would be in the play in game. If both Penn State and Dayton win those I have in the play in games would be Richmond, Virginia tech, Florida State and USC.

I think the team I am leaving out that is most likely to get chosen by the committee is St Mary's. To me their body of work was not enough. They hang much of their resume on a win over St Johns which occurred in November and one win over Gonzaga. To me the two teams they are competing with (Alabama and USC) have a much better collection of wins. USC is 5-5 against the RPI top 50 and has wins over UCLA, Arizona, Washington, and Texas. That is strong. Alabama ran away with the SEC west and has wins over Kentucky, bubble team Georgia twice (which I why they have to be above Georgia in the pecking order), and Tennessee. I really believe those 3 teams are competing for the last two spots. I went with USC and Alabama, but I would not be surprised in the committee went with St Mary's. And if Dayton wins the A10 I think those teams are competing for the last spot.

Two 1 seeds are set in stone (Ohio State and Kansas). I believe there are 3 legit contenders for the remaining 2 one seeds. To me Pitt and Notre Dame have the clear advantage over Duke in overall resume. A win today by Duke would tighten the gap, but I think the committee will settle on their 1 seeds before tip off of that game. In the end I think the one seeds will be Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, and Pitt.

I have the Bearcats as a 6 seed which I have had them at all week. I think their resume compares favorably to the 5 seeds, however, and would not be surprised if they ended up there. I would be surprised if UC was any lower than a 7 seed.

And now the futile effort of projecting matchups and pods.

East

From Cleveland Ohio:

1. Ohio State
16. UTSA/Ark Little Rock

8. Georgetown
9. Old Dominion

From Denver Colorado:

4. BYU
13. Princeton

5. West Virginia
12. Memphis

From Washington DC:

6. Texas A&M
11. Michigan State

3. Kentucky
14. Bucknell

From Washington DC:

7. Temple
10. George Mason

2. UConn
15. St Peters

Southwest

From Tulsa Oklahoma:

1. Kansas
16. Arkansas State/Hampton

8. Marquette
9. Michigan

From Tuscon Arizona:

4. Wisconsin
13. Oakland

5. St Johns
12. Penn State/Alabama

From Tuscon Arizona:

6. Xavier
11. Clemson

3. San Diego State
14. Wofford

From Tampa Florida:

7. Washington
10. Colorado

2. Florida
15. Northern Colorado

Southeast

From Chicago Illinois:

1. Notre Dame
16. UNC Ashville

8. Tennessee
9. Missouri

From Denver Colorado:

4. Purdue
13. Belmont

5. Vanderbilt
12. Florida State/USC

From Chicago Illinois:

6. Kansas State
11. Virginia tech

3. Louisville
14. Indiana State

From Charlotte North Carolina:

7. UNLV
10. Villanova

2. UNC
15. Akron

West

From Cleveland Ohio:

1. Pitt
16. Boston U

8. Gonzaga
9. Butler

From Tampa Florida:

4. Syracuse
13. Morehead State

5. Arizona
12. Utah State

From Tulsa Oklahoma:

6. Cincinnati
11. Richmond

3. Texas
14. Long Island U

From Charlotte North Carolina:

7. UCLA
10. Illinois

2. Duke
15. UCSB

My Projected Tournament Field = March 12 12:17AM

2011-03-11T21:17:00.000-08:00

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Texas, BYU

Three Seeds- Florida, Louisville, Kentucky, Syracuse

Four Seeds- San Diego State, UCONN, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- St Johns, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona

Six Seeds- Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, UCLA, UNLV, Georgetown

Eight Seeds- Tennessee, Gonzaga, Marquette, Michigan

Nine Seeds- Old Dominion, Missouri, Washington, Butler

Ten Seeds- Villanova, llinois,, George Mason, Colorado

Eleven Seeds- Clemson, Michigan State, Virginia Tech , Florida State

Twelve Seeds- USC/St Marys, Utah State, Richmond/Alabama, Memphis

Thirteen Seeds- Harvard, Oakland, Belmont, Morehead State

Fourteen Seeds- Indiana State, Kent State, Bucknell, Long Island U

Fifteen Seeds- Long Beach State, Wofford, St Peters, Northern Colorado

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Texas Southern/ Bethune Cookman, Mcneese State/Ark Little Rock

Last 4 In

USC

Richmond

Alabama

St Mary's

First 6 Out

Penn State

Georgia

Harvard

Boston College

UAB

Memphis

First Attempt at Projected Tournament Field

2011-03-09T06:52:00.000-08:00

Here is my first draft at the NCAA field. I am not going to do matchups until my final draft is released on Selection Sunday. My seeds are left to right in order of how I have them ranked right now as well. (Automatic Bids in bold, predicted Automatic qualifiers in italics)

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Texas, BYU

Three Seeds- Florida, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky

Four Seeds- San Diego State, West Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- Kansas State, St Johns, UCONN, Vanderbilt

Six Seeds- Cincinnati, UCLA, Arizona, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, Georgetown, UNLV, Texas A&M

Eight Seeds- Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Gonzaga

Nine Seeds- Marquette, Old Dominion, Michigan, Washington

Ten Seeds- Villanova, Butler, Florida State, George Mason

Eleven Seeds- USC, Boston College, Colorado, Virginia Tech

Twelve Seeds- Richmond, Clemson/Michigan State, Utah State, Georgia/St Mary's

Thirteen Seeds- UAB, Harvard, Oakland, Belmont

Fourteen Seeds- Morehead State, Indiana State, Kent State, Bucknell

Fifteen Seeds- Long Island U, Wofford, St Peters, Northern Colorado

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Texas Southern/Arkansas Little Rock, Mcneese State/Bethune Cookman

Ohio State and Kansas both make good cases for the overall number one seed. I think at this point it is Ohio State's to lose. I think if Pitt were to win the Big East tournament and neither OSU or Kansas won their tournaments Pitt could still get the overall number 1. To me those are the only three contenders for that spot.

I have Duke slightly ahead of North Carolina, but because I had them 5 and 6 overall and North Carolina won the ACC outright I went ahead and made North Carolina the highest 2 seed. BYU could fall a couple seed lines if their play seems to really have diminished in the Mountain West tournament. As of right now their resume is too impressive to do that. BYU is 9-1 against the RPI top 50, and 5-0 against the RPI top 25. I still think if they look really impressive in the Mountain West tournament they have an outside shot at a number 1 seed.

Kentucky is the first team whom I seeded higher than I initially expected to. They struggled in true road games inside the conference, but their overall profile is really good. They are 12 in the RPI and have non-conference wins over Washington, Louisville (projected 3 seed by me) and Notre Dame (projected 1 seed by me). They were also in the very difficult SEC East and racked up some good wins there.

I have Purdue and Wisconsin both as 4 seeds, whomever makes the finals of the Big 10 (if either do) will have a good shot at a 3 and an outside shot at a two. Purdue for example has a nice split with Wisconsin and Ohio State, but outside of that their wins just do not hold up with the teams I have above them (including a WVU team that they lost to). Wisconsin essentially has the same resume though they are a few spots lower in the RPI and have 1 more loss.

On to the Bearcats. I have them as the to 6 seed at the moment. A loss to South Florida tonight could put them in the 7/8 range given how little respect they seem to have been given at times nationally. Short of that I think a 6 seed is very safe and they could very easily play their way up. Their overall resume compares very well to all of the 4 and 5 seeds (I debated putting them above Vanderbilt for the last 5 seed). If they were to make a run to the finals their resume would compare very well to all the 2 and 3 seeds. The Big East tournament will be a great opportunity for the Cats and really the only risk would be dropping a seed line with a loss to South Florida (and I really do not expect a team playing this well to do that).

I have UCONN above the Bearcats despite finishing behind them in the Big East on the strength of their great non-conference profile and their win in Cincinnati. UCONN's overall body of work is really quite impressive even if I do not necessarily think they are as good of a team as some of the squads they are seeded with.

I will definitely have an updated bracket with full projections (even the futile attempt to predict match-ups and regions) at the very least on the morning of Selection Sunday. And as conference tournaments move along I may have some other thoughts to add.

First Look at the 2011 Bubble

2011-03-07T21:23:00.000-08:00

Every year at this time I break down the resume's of every team in the country and try to evaluate where I believe the committee will put them. First though lets look at two teams who have earned their way off the bubble by getting automatic bids tonight.

Old Dominion- The runner up in the CAA cemented their bid by winning the CAA championship tonight. They were probably in already finishing second in a very solid Colonial Conference, and getting road wins at Xavier and Clemson, and a home win over George Mason. It is probably not the greatest resume in the world, but it likely would be enough to get them in. Doesn't matter now. They will be dancing.

Gonzaga- Gonzaga capped of a great run to finish the year with another West Coast Conference tournament championship. They had a really good win over Xavier as well as wins over bubble teams St Mary's and Marquette this year. They also had a very low RPI and losses to RPI 159 Santa Clara and 122 San Francisco, to go with losses to bubble teams Illinois and Memphis. They would have probably been among the last teams in or first teams out...now they have the automatic birth.

As of today my last team in is St Mary's. The thing that stands out to me the most is how much we do not need 68 tournament teams... wow some of those resumes are weak. Many of the teams battling for the last few spots have great opportunities this week to put some key wins on their resume (and hell chances to add a bad loss as well). To be honest outside of the first 3 teams I listed (Tennessee, Illinois and Marquette) I do not think anyone would have a huge gripe if they missed the tournament as of today. I do think Michigan and Washington have built fairly decent profiles for teams at the bottom. I also think Southern Cal had an unexpectedly good body of work. They were much higher than I had them going in.

As I mention every year the most important thing is demonstrating an ability to beat NCAA tournament teams. I use the RPI for evaluation not because it is the best system, but because that is what the committee uses. I take bad losses into consideration a bit, but it is not nearly as important as great wins. Scheduling as always matters and teams that schedule ambitiously are much more prone to get the benefit of the doubt. As resume's get shakier, however, I tend to favor mid majors who did well in their conference over middle of the pack teams from power conferences (again resume's being relatively equal). I do this because the teams from major conferences get more chances on the whole to demonstrate their ability against top competition. This is why for example I have St Mary's and VCU slightly above Alabama. Their resume's are all fairly marginal, but Alabama has had more chances to demonstrate what they can do (and will get more in their conference tournament).

Anyways here is my ranking of the bubble at this time. I have 26 teams competing for what will likely be 16-18 spots (depending on if there are upsets in a couple conference tournaments). St Mary's as my last team in today assume there are 18 spots.

Tennessee- They are going to the NCAA tournament. Thirteen losses and only going 8-8 in the SEC makes one skeptical, but their wins are just much stronger than any one else on the bubble they would be competing with. Tennessee boasts top 50 RPI wins over Missouri State, Villanova, Pitt (potential 1 seed), Memphis, Georgia and Vanderbilt (twice). Overall they are 7-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite some puzzling losses to Charlotte, College of Charleston and Arkansas their body of work should be good enough.

Illinois- The Illini got to 9-9 in the Big Ten and that should be enough to get them into the tournament. Wins over North Carolina and Gonzaga give them two nice non-conference scalps to go along with their wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan in the conference. Among the Big Ten bubble teams (and there are many) Illinois certainly has the most complete resume.

Marquette- Marquette played an ambitious schedule and did not close out any of those games in the non-conference portion losing to Duke, Wisconsin and Vanderbilt as well as to bubble team Gonzaga. Still Marquette has more quality wins than any other team on the bubble having beaten Notre Dame, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Uconn (the Uconn game taking place on the road). Marquette is probably in good shape despite their low RPI but a loss to Providence in the first round of the Big East tournament might not sit well with the committee. Get that win and I think Marquette will likely be in. If they get two wins they'll be a lock.

Michigan- Throwing out Illinois who I think should be in, of the Big Ten bubble teams I have Michigan first in the pecking order on the strength of their season sweeps of Michigan State and Penn State. They have a nice win over Harvard and a non-conference win over bubble team Clemson. A win over Illinois to start the Big Ten tournament would go a long way towards locking up a spot, because despite having 3 top 50 RPI wins and 3 other wins against bubble teams it is possible none of those wins will have come against teams that make the NCAA tournament.

Washington- This is a team who nearly everyone agrees is probably better than their tournament profile indicates. Washington has a sweep of UCLA and a win over Arizona to give them a 3-1 record against the top teams in the PAC Ten. If they can manage to get to the PAC Ten tournament finals I am betting it is very likely they will end up in the NCAA tournament. They are 3-4 against the RPI top 50, though one of their losses is to fellow bubble team Michigan State. They also have two puzzling losses...one to Stanford (RPI 139) and one to Oregon State (RPI 228).

Florida State- The consensus seems to be that Florida State is in and I am not quite sure why (other than someone has to fill those bottom spots). Florida State is 2-5 against the RPI top 50 (their wins are against Duke and Boston College). I guess the 11-5 ACC record is impressive until we consider that 5 of those wins came against the three worst teams in the conference (RPI 238 Wake Forest twice, RPI 160 Georgia Tech, and RPI 188 NC State twice). They split with bubble team Clemson, beat bubble team Boston College and lost to bubble team Virginia Tech. They also have just a dreadful loss to RPI 255 Auburn. They may be a tournament team, but wow are they an underwhelming one.

George Mason- They dominated the CAA this season including a win over RPI 24 Old Dominion and scored a top 35 RPI win by beating Harvard. That is really all there is to their resume. In all honesty George Mason has to hope that the committee puts some weight to winning the CAA regular season title by 2 games. That separation from Old Dominion will be nice as both seem to be on the bubble and if Old Dominion gets in it would be hard not to take George Mason as well.

USC- Given the weak state of the bubble I think a nice case can be made for USC. They have top 25 RPI wins over Texas and Arizona as well as two other top 50 wins against UCLA and Tennessee. That's a solid group of wins. They have a few bad losses to Oregon State (RPI 232), Rider (RPI 104) and Bradley (RPI 237) that are holding them down somewhat. A run to the finals of the PAC Ten tournament would put USC in great shape as that would include another win over Arizona.

Boston College- Wow is the ACC bubble weak. Boston College's NCAA hopes at this point seem to cling to their season sweep of fellow bubble team Virginia Tech and a top 50 win over Texas A&M early in the season. Boston College is in the RPI top 50, but I am not quite sure how as that win over Texas A&M is their only top 50 win. I'm interested to see how the committee handles the very weak profiles from the ACC teams.

Colorado- It is certainly possible Colorado has too many bad losses on their resume to warrant a bid, but they do have wins that exceed many of the other bubble teams. Colorado swept Kansas State and beat Texas. They managed a split with Missouri. They have a loss to another fellow bubble team in Georgia. Will one more win over Kansas State earn them a bid? It is possible.

Virginia Tech- After beating Duke the Hokies looked to be in pretty good shape... then they promptly did the Hokie thing and lost back to back games to bubble teams Boston College and Clemson. Now the Hokies have that great win over Duke, a nice win over bubble team Florida State, and an alright win over borderline bubble team Penn State. They also were swept by fellow ACC bubble team Boston College and lost in their only meeting with Clemson. Troubling losses to RPI 135 Virginia (twice) and RPI 162 Georgia Tech make the Hokie's resume look even more baffling. Yeah the win at home over Duke is nice, but other than that there is not much there that says this is an NCAA tournament team.

Richmond- I look at Richmond's resume and it reminds me a lot of Florida State and Virginia Tech. They have one really strong victory that makes them look like a tournament team, in their case Purdue, and then not much else. Richmond is only 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (their other win was against VCU) having lost their regular season chances against Xavier and Temple. If Richmond wants to lock up an at large bid they'll need to beat Temple in the A10 semis (beating Xavier and they'd win the Automatic).

Clemson- The marquee win for Clemson this year was an 18 point home win over Florida State (they lost to Florida State on the road). Clemson also victories over fellow ACC bubble teams Virginia Tech and Boston College. Clemson has 3 bad losses to South Carolina, NC State and Virginia. They also lost to fellow bubble team Michigan. They will need to beat Boston College in the ACC tournament to be in decent shape for a bid and would likely lock up a bid if they could upset conference champion North Carolina to reach the semis. I do think there is a really good chance that Clemson v Boston College could be an NCAA play in game.

Butler- The defending National Championship runners up have seemingly righted the ship in the Horizon league. Butler finished the season winning their last 8 games and making an at large bid a sudden possibility (though a long shot) if they somehow get upset in their conference tournament. Butler is 3-3 vs. the RPI top 50 with a season sweep of Cleveland State and a win over Florida State to their credit (RPI top 50 losses are Xavier, Louisville, and Duke). Their loss to Youngstown State and getting swept by Milwaukee really is holding them back.

Michigan State- The Spartans have 13 losses and have struggled much of the year, but they are right on the edge of the NCAA bubble. They have 4 RPI top 50 wins (Washington, Penn State, Illinois and Wisconsin) to go with 12 RPI top 50 losses. Among those losses are a sweep to fellow bubble team Michigan who they have to be behind in the pecking order at this point. The committee has often rewarded ambitious scheduling and 16 games against the RPI top 50 is a crazy amount, but Michigan State's resume hardly looks like that of a tournament team.

Georgia- The Bulldogs are 3-9 against the RPI top 50 earning wins over Tennessee, UAB and Kentucky. That does not scream NCAA tournament team. To their credit they really have not suffered a bad loss as 9 of their 10 losses are to RPI top 50 teams and their only other loss was to SEC west champion Alabama. If Georgia could pick up one or two more scalps in the SEC tournament their resume would begin to look pretty decent a quick loss and they could be on the outside looking in.

Utah State- Every year their domination of the Big west puts Utah State on the brink of the NCAA tournament, but their refusal to schedule ambitiously always makes them a potentially controversial at large. Utah State has had an RPI in the 20s for a while now, their best win this year, however is against RPI 48 St Mary's, their next best win is RPI 95 Long Beach State... that is it for top 100 RPI wins. They have a close loss to BYU, they got solidly beat by Georgetown and they have a bad loss to RPI 129 Nevada. Basically they've done almost nothing to suggest they are at large worthy over the course of the season and very little to suggest they are not. With 68 teams getting in maybe that will be enough...hopefully they'll just win their conference tournament and save us the headache.

St Mary's- They earned a share of the very good West Coast Conference regular season title and made the finals of the WCC tournament. On top of that they have a great win over St Johns and a solid win over NCAA tournament bubble Gonzaga. They also gave BYU all they could handle in Provo (for what that is worth). Their loss to Utah State on bracket buster Saturday is looming very large after their loss to Gonzaga in the WCC finals.

Virginia Commonwealth- Their bid for an automatic birth fell short and ten losses is probably too many for a CAA team, but VCU does have some nice meat to their resume. VCU has 3 top 50 RPI wins over UCLA, George Mason and Old Dominion, all of which could very well be in the tournament. Losses to Georgia State and Northeastern (220 and 174 in the RPI respectively) are probably going to go a long way towards keeping them out.

Alabama- Alabama might end up being the most debated team on this years bubble. One one hand they were the SEC West Champs by 3 whole games. On the other hand the SEC West is a train wreck. One one hand they have conference wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road) and fellow bubble team Georgia, on the other hand they really have not beaten ANYONE else. They have losses to Iowa (RPI 169), St Peters, Seton Hall, Providence (RPI 146), and Arkansas (RPI 120). They have an RPI lower than any team that has ever been chosen for the NCAA tournament. I think they'll definitely need to beat Georgia (assuming Georgia beats Auburn) and I think there is a chance they'll have to beat Kentucky in the SEC semis as well if Bama wants a bid.

Penn State- I'm feeling generous so I'll talk Penn State. They do have wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois so that is the good. The bad is the losses. They have 13 of them. A few of them to the likes of Maine, Ole Miss and Maryland. They also lost return games to Michigan State and Illinois as well as games to bubble teams Michigan and Virginia Tech. Short of a run to the Big Ten championship I think Penn State is going to miss.

UAB- UAB sits at 29 in the RPI, but unless the committee values wins over Marshall and Southern Miss despite being the outright CUSA champions UAB will likely have to win the tournament title to earn a bid.

Cal- If we have USC maybe we should put Cal. Frankly I think Cal is a long shot, but possibly a run to the finals will do it for them. Cal has a nice non-conference win over Temple. Their two biggest wins in the PAC Ten are UCLA and @USC. They absolutely must beat Cal and then Arizona in the Pac Ten tournament and even then I think that might not be enough.

Harvard- If people are going to talk about UAB at all then we might as well go over Harvard's resume. They have a top 50 win over Boston College and two solid wins over Princeton and Colorado respectively. They are 1-3 against RPI top 50 and 2-1 against RPI 50-100. They will likely play Princeton in a one game playoff for a chance to go to the NCAA tournament, I doubt they will earn an at large with a loss.

Memphis- Will the committee care about a sweep of CUSA champ and RPI 29, UAB? Are wins over RPI 73 Miami(Fl), RPI 62 Gonzaga, RPI 53 Southern Miss and RPI 50 Marshall going to carry any weight. It looks to me like Memphis is sitting in pretty poor shape, especially with the couple of bad losses they had done the stretch against Rice (RPI 183) and East Carolina (RPI 110). I wish I did not even have to bring them up, but with 68 teams who knows.

Missouri State- The Missouri Valley conference has been a really good league in the past, but this year it is not strong enough to carry Missouri State to the tournament on the strength of their conference title alone. Missouri State did not do anything outside of the league to warrant a bid.

I'll have some bracket projections ready later this week as well as a breakdown of UC's resume and a few other resume's of teams at the top I found interesting. Until then keep on enjoying championship week.

March Madness Back in Cincinnati

2011-03-06T21:36:00.001-08:00

Senior Day is always special. Fans get invested in the success of players that have represented their school sometimes for as long as 5 years. There is simply a different feel when you enter the arena on senior day. On Saturday, Bearcat fans were treated to a fantastic farewell to six seniors who have given much to the University of Cincinnati basketball program. The Bearcats capped off a 5-1 finish by absolutely blasting a very good Georgetown team.

This was the best senior night I have attended since Steve Logan went coast to coast to tie Memphis and then clinch a conference title in OT in 2002. This was the most electric the Shoe has felt since that day. Fans were loud, they were on their feet and they were invested. It took time to get there. It took having a team that has played incredible basketball down the stretch and had one hell of a season, but it is hard not to feel the program is well on its way back after a day like Saturday.

The game itself was a fabulous display of everything that has made this Bearcat team so good down the stretch. This Bearcat team can beat anyone in the country when they get top flight play from Wright and Gates. When they have won that has almost universally been the case. Wright played another very solid game at point guard. The Bearcats looked crisp in their offense getting very good looks throughout the night and getting stuff going towards the basket. I felt that early in conference play the Bearcats settled to often for shots that other teams wanted them to take. They launched quick semi-contested 3 pointers and did not get anything going towards the basket. They simply did not make defenses work.

Credit Cronin and the coaching staff, because this began to change drastically starting with the Pittsburgh game. From that point on I really feel this team's offensive discipline has gone up considerably. I know the Bearcats lost at Pitt and I know it was not exactly close most the game, but I remember watching the game and being very pleased with the way the Bearcats were working the ball and making an effort to score going towards the basket. Since that day it seems they are getting better and better in their execution. They do not settle for quick semi-contested jumpers. They work the ball and get the defense moving. This has led to better looks, it has led to opportunities for offensive rebounds and it has often lead to fouls on the other team.

To me the other major factor in this run of exceptional play has been the absolute force Yancy Gates has become, particularly on the defensive end. Gates absolutely changes the game inside and he has done it largely without fouling. He alters shot after shot and often comes up with very big, timely blocks. He has owned every big man he has been asked to guard in this great stretch run. On offense he has been solid. He has given UC an inside scoring threat, he has worked hard on the offensive glass to get put backs and to me even more to his credit he seems to always make the right decision when it comes to passing out of the low post. Gates gets doubled team often, but he has a feel for when to get rid of the ball and find the open man. This ability to throw it down low and either score or draw defenders and pass out has opened the offense up even more. I have been thrilled watching Gates' play down the stretch.

With Wright and Gates playing so well and giving the Bearcats the dominant players they need at two key positions the biggest strength the Bearcats possess has really been allowed to shine...their depth. What makes UC so difficult to play is they can play multiple styles and can come after you with so many different players. During this run there have been games where Thomas hardly plays at all and games where Thomas has been absolutely essential. We have seen moments of greatness from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick. Because they go so deep we get to see the Bearcats really extend the pressure on teams. One of my favorite things to watch is Wilks at the front of the press. It almost seems like he is freelancing at times just waiting for the perfect time to run over and give the double team. We have seen the Bearcats throw in some zone and seen them in their in your face man to man. We have seen them play big against Marquette or go smaller in the first Georgetown game. At this point in the year the Bearcat roster is so versatile and their ability to sub in and out allows them to play incredibly hard at all times and just wear people down. That has been an absolutely huge advantage.

In this sense the Bearcats could be a perfect team for Big East tournament play. They have the horses to really get after it and make teams work. Wednesday night whether it is Villanova or South Florida the Bearcats I strongly believe UC's depth could really wear them down particularly because they'll be playing for a second consecutive night. Villanova worried me a bit only because they have the type of in your face ball pressure that at times has given Wright problems and the Bearcats need Wright to play well to be at their best. That said I think the Bearcats are one of the teams that could go to NYC and win the Big East tournament. Hell, if they win a couple of games in NYC their seed line will really begin to move.

My firm belief is that the Bearcats are going to be a 6 seed at worst in the NCAA tournament. The Bearcats have a set of wins that puts them more in line with the 1,2, and 3 seeds than most of the 6 or 7 seeds. Also, 7 losses is not many especially when you consider that all of them are losses to top 35 RPI teams. The Bearcats are going to be penalized for their non-conference SOS and that is the only reason we are not talking about them as a 4 or 5 seed right now, BUT a couple more wins over these NCAA tournament teams and now the numbers will start to get gaudy. If the Bearcats can get two wins in the conference tournament I firmly believe they will be a 3 or a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. At that point they would have 7 RPI top 50 wins (6 would be top 25) and then a road win at NCAA bubble Marquette. You are not going to find 5 teams in the country that can say that. If the Bearcats make the finals I am willing to bet they'd be a 3 seed and if they could somehow win the entire thing in New York I do not think a 2 seed is out of the question. If the Bearcats make the finals of the Big East tournament there is a good chance they'd finish the year with more top 25 RPI wins than any team in the country. That combined with only 7 (or 8 if they lost in finals) losses would be incredibly hard for the committee to ignore.

So that is part of the fun we can have this week. I think they have earned a 6 seed or better already...the or better part is looking very exciting, because I think 2 seed is still in play (would take an obviously incredible run). I'll go over this in more detail later this week as I do my annual ranking of the tournament bubble and start putting out some bracket projections. Until then... Go Bearcats!

Bearcats Closing In On NCAA Tournament Bid

2011-02-20T18:55:00.001-08:00

We have reached the time of year where it is time to talk NCAA tournament hopes. The Bearcats have put themselves in position to earn an NCAA bid. To do this they must take care of business down the stretch. A 2-2 finish would look awfully good for Cincinnati, especially in a Big East conference that has been particularly good this year compared to the rest of college basketball. I am not as confident that 1-3 will get it done, because of the committee's history of penalizing teams that have poor non-conference strength of schedules. Lets start off by looking at what UC has going for them..

3-6 vs. RPI top 25

Zero losses to anyone outside of RPI top 25

3-0 vs. RPI 50-100

Dominating home win over a Xavier team that is likely to get a good NCAA seed.

Road win over a St Johns team that looks better by the day

Home win over what will be a highly seeded Louisville team.

Looking at that resume Cincinnati has shown that 1. They can beat NCAA tournament caliber teams (very good tournament teams at that) and 2. They can take care of business in games they should win. 3. At 5-4 their road/neutral record is at the very least solid

Here is what will weigh on the Bearcats:

9 of their wins are against teams 214 and below in the RPI.

Non-conference SOS in the near 300

That non-conference SOS has been an anchor all season long. With a 1-3 finish I firmly believe it will take two Big East tournament wins to feel safe (I say two because the first game will be a game that losing would look very bad and the second would be one where the Bearcats could actually get a valuable win over a really good team). The shame of the whole thing is had UC scheduled more ambitiously there is a good chance they would be playing for a chance at a very good seed right now. Many bring up financial issues which is fair enough, but I think there is a cost/benefit thought process that does not get addressed. Had UC played mediocre teams instead of dreadfully bad teams they'd likely have about the same record, but would be well higher in the RPI. Is saving the expense on the front end (IE scheduling cheaper teams) worth the benefits you lose on the back end (better tournament position whether its from off the bubble to in or getting a better seed... the results of both are increased interest and exposure for the team that leads to more revenue). My own opinion is it is short sighted to make your schedule based on front end costs without factoring in the back end benefits.

In all honestly I think UC is one of the best 35 teams in the country. I think they are likely one of the best 25 teams in the country. I think their resume is undervalued nationally because of the number of dreadful teams they played to the point that the Bearcats do not get enough credit for the way they dominated Xavier, their big win at St Johns or taking care of Louisville at home. They do not get enough credit for not losing to any team outside of the RPI top 25. That said the Bearcats like every other team in the country know how the system works. They know what the committee values and they know that building up wins on the backs of bad teams is something that in the long run could be detrimental. If the Bearcats miss the tournament at this point it will be no ones fault but their own.

Many fans look at Xavier and wonder how anyone could put them ahead of Cincinnati. I myself believe that Cincinnati is a better team than Xavier and I think the evidence that is out their suggests it as well. The fact is though that Xavier has a better NCAA tournament resume when you look at the way the committee has traditionally evaluated tournament teams. Xavier has only played 4 games against teams seeded under 200 in the RPI while UC played 9. That factor alone is where the major difference in their resumes comes from. Both teams have the same record. Both have the same number of top 50 RPI wins. They even have about the same number of RPI top 100 wins (Xavier has 7, Cincinnati has 6). Now the Bearcats have beaten better teams (3 RPI top 25 vs. 0) and their losses came against better teams (All six to RPI top 25), and ultimately the difference between playing bad teams and really bad teams maybe should not matter as much as it does, but that is a reality that has always been known when the committee looks at NCAA candidates. It is up to the university to schedule accordingly and give themselves a chance to get the best possible evaluation from the committee. Xavier did a great job of that, Cincinnati did not.

In the end it might not matter that much. As it stands UC has some work to do, but they are coming off a week in which they played some of their best basketball of the season. Throwing out the eight minute stretch to end regulation against Providence the Bearcats looked like a really good basketball team. Offensively they worked the ball better than I have seen them most of the season and did not settle for the same forced threes they have when the offense has struggled (though Thomas still decided he needed to take his one three per game). They got contributions from guys across the board from Gates, to Kilpatrick, to Wright, and to Dixon. Their defense has been a great strength all year, but against Louisville it was absolutely suffocating. It was quite honestly one of the best defensive performances by any team this year. If the Bearcats continue this level of play I am confident they'll get at least 2 more wins and could conceivably make a run in the conference tournament. They could still not only make the tournament but end up with a decent seed.

It will always bug me that UC did not give themselves the opportunity to really put together the best possible body of work, because I definitely think this team is worthy of more than being the bubble team where people keep harping on their pathetic non-conference schedule. I think their non-conference scheduling is likely to cost UC two seed lines come selection Sunday. That hurts, it irks me, but the positive news is they still have every chance to play themselves into the tournament and I think it very likely that they will.

In my opinion last week was the Bearcats' best and most significant week of the year. It was definitely the most optimistic I have been after watching them. If they build on that and finish the way they are capable of we will all be watching meaningful basketball in March for the first time in the years. Now that is something all Bearcat fans can get behind.

PDoc Cannot Let Huggs v Zimph Go

2011-01-28T20:11:00.000-08:00

The Cincinnati vs. West Virginia game is here again and once again Paul Daugherty has a message for all of you Bearcat fans who still love Bob Huggins and have stopped supporting the Bearcats because of the way he was dismissed from the program... build a bridge and get the fuck over it. Sadly Pdoc seems to not want to take his own advice.

You go to UC message boards and you do not see fans rehashing the Huggins dismissal. I talk to my Bearcat fan friends these days and none of the talk is on Nancy Zimpher (may she get what is coming to her some day) or the Huggins dismissal, but on topics related to the basketball team. They talk about how UC is playing, on whether UC can make the tournament, on the horrid non-conference strength of schedule, on the ridiculously strong Big East schedule, on avoiding a late season collapse, on the inconsistency of half court offense, the huge shot made by Yancy Gates against St Johns, the tremendous defensive effort night in and night out...the list goes on and on, but these are the topics among UC fans.

In the spirit of Pdoc's hypocrisy and in honor of the great writers who once graced firejoemorgan.com here are my thoughts on Daugherty's latest printed atrocity.

Doc: Why the Bob Huggins Nostalgia?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110128/COL03/399990172/Doc-Why-the-Huggins-nostalgia

By Paul Daugherty • pdaugherty@enquirer.com • January 28, 2011

Mick Cronin, bless him, did the proper fawning again. His knees must ache from all that genuflecting. UC wouldn’t be in the Big East without Bob Huggins, according to the Bearcats basketball coach. Football and academics played a big role, too, but OK. We get it Pdoc... Huggins was not the ONLY reason UC was asked to join the Big East. Bob Goin being incredibly proactive in seeking membership and pushing forward varsity village was also instrumental, but Mick is not saying anything we do not already know when crediting Huggins. UC did not have a special program in any other sports and though I think UC academics have long been undervalued nationally they were not bringing new credibility to the Big East with their academics. Yea they had to show the conference these areas were strengths, but the selling point for the Bearcat program was its top 15 basketball program.

Meantime, fans who wouldn’t walk across the yard to attend the Rutgers game Wednesday night (attendance: 6,400 or so) will sell out Fifth Third Arena Saturday (13,176), to watch the University of Huggs, even as the game is no more vital to the Bearcats’ tournament interests. Yes, Huggins coming back is and will always be a big deal to Bearcat fans. He earned that much with both his success and loyalty to the Bearcat program. Still Rutgers and a West Virginia team that was in the final four and won the Big East tournament last season is not an apples to apples comparison. Here is a quick list of reasons this game would be a much bigger sell (not even factoring in Huggins).

WVU was a final four team last year while Rutgers was sitting at home
WVU is a tournament team nearly every year. When was the last time Rutgers made the NCAA tournament? Anyone?
Rutgers game was 9 PM on a weeknight, WVU game is 8 PM on a Saturday
WVU is a top 20 team according to the RPI and either the 3^rd or 4^th best team that will come to the Shoe this year.

I would argue that getting another top 25 RPI win is far more vital to UC's tournament interests than beating Rutgers...so not only is Doc's inept comparison between the WVU game and the Rutgers game asinine to begin with his point of their relevance to UC's tournament interests is wrong.

Two years ago, UC feted Huggins in a brief pregame ceremony. One object was to honor a guy who meant a lot to a lot of people around here, in the basketball program and elsewhere. He richly deserved the recognition.

The bigger motive was to try, please God, to close a book. It was the retirement party that would allow everyone to move on. It didn’t work. At least not among the faithful. (Or faithless, depending on your side of the fence.) I do not necessarily buy that this was the bigger motive though I am sure giving Bearcat fans a deserved sense of closure with a coach who they invested so much in was a huge factor (and rightfully so). As to it not working... by what standard Doc? I was thankful I was able to give Huggs the standing ovation before the game he so richly deserved and yet at tipoff every Bearcat fan was cheering heartily for the University of Cincinnati. After the win UC was in prime position to get a tournament bid and I would argue if the complete collapse had not occurred down the stretch you may have seen attendance start to build sooner rather than later.

Huggins has moved on. He put West Virginia in the Final Four last year. Do you think he sits in his Morgantown mansion pining for Clifton? He’s somebody else’s hero now. Fair enough and Bearcat fans have not been pining for Huggins, what they have been pining for is NCAA tournament basketball.

He reminisces when asked. He harbors some bitterness for how the breakup was handled. He doesn’t carry a torch for his old job. If he did, he couldn’t do his new one.

Nancy Zimpher has moved on. Do you believe Zimpher – who made UC a better school, by the way – is concerned with what you think about her now? It’s possible she wrings her hands each night as she tucks herself in, grieving over the tickets not sold because of festering local anger. But I kind of doubt it.

Please find a new Cruella. My favorite part of the Doc bullshit article we get every year is the way he tries to bate Bearcat fans and make them feel guilty for hating Zimpher. Doc always sided with Zimpher in the Huggs/Zim saga and part of the reason I think he brings this up every year just to throw it into UC fans faces.

The Huggs-vs.-Zim show has closed, ladies and gentlemen. Have a safe ride home. Tip your bartenders and waitresses. Doc you're several years late on this. The Huggs v Zim show closed in 2005 and yet for some reason you find the need to rehash it every God damn year. Follow your own advice. Tip your bartenders and waitresses? Doc you've been beating this dead horse for 6 years now...nearly everyone is over it but you.

Why all this ongoing, destructive nostalgia? The only destructive nostalgia is the drivel you and the other talking heads try to sell us every year at this time.

You still don’t go to UC basketball games because of what happened six years ago? Really? This seems like as good a time as any to talk about attendance. Yes many long time UC fans dropped their tickets to UC basketball after the Huggins dismissal. They were upset with how the program was being run, they were upset that not only did the administration ditch a beloved coach, but that it gave the UC basketball program a self imposed death penalty.

The irony is this is the exact attitude that Daugherty wants Bengals fans to use. He asks them to protest with their pocket books and to not buy a failing product. Hell, he wrote as much in his January 15 column about being addicted to the Bengals. http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20110115/COL03/301150016/ To add to the irony the Bengals have made the playoffs twice in the five year span since Huggins was fired. The Bearcats have not been to the tournament.

Doc wants you to believe that attendance is bad because Bearcat fans cannot get over the Huggins firing. That is good for his narrative. It allows him to write the same bullcrap article every year in some form or another. The reason attendance is not back at UC is very simple.

UC has not been to the NCAA tournament in five years.
UC played an absolutely abysmal non-conference schedule with very few appealing games
The economy has been poor and fans are more selective with their dollars
Even with success it takes time to build back the fan base. Yes UC is 18-3 right now and ideally more fans would be attending games, but the fact is many UC fans have not been following the program as they did when UC was making the tournament every year. As a result they do not have the attachment to the players, staff and program that was there when it was successful. Huggins did not build the program overnight...the fans did not immediately sell out night after night (and he had the luxury of a brand new arena).

The fact is that if the Bearcats continue to win, if they finish strong this season (which they have not done when in very good position the last two years) that will start really bringing the fans back. When the program gets back to winning consistently the fans will come.

You’re going Saturday, because of the. . . visiting coach? No doubt Huggins is part of the draw, but we are also going to see a top 20 RPI team who made the final four last year. We are going to hopefully see a good game and see the Bearcats get another quality win.

How self defeating. How utterly useless, in a very Cincinnati way. Yes how awful that the Bearcats sell out what ultimately is a huge game in the Big East.

We live in our rearview mirrors here, sometimes. We glorify our past. Things are never as good as they were in 1975. P-e-e-e-te!! Way to get a nonsense Pete Rose reference in the article which in this context is a terrible analogy. I guess the point you are trying to make is that both Rose and Huggins are flawed heroes. Isn't everyone?

The Way We’ve Always Done It rules the day. If you don’t like it here – and why on earth wouldn’t you? -- there’s the door. I’ve lived here 22 years and I’ve never understood our thinking. I only understand how it has affected our community. We’re not better for all the past-clinging. It keeps us from being as good as we can be. WTF is he talking about? “If you don't like it here there is the door.” Who are we showing the door? Are you going all the way back to the NZ references? Respecting the past and being loyal to those who were loyal to you and busted their ass for your school is not clinging to the past. It is being a fan. No one would ever confuse you with a Bearcat fan so maybe it is impossible for you to understand.

How can we move on when we’re always looking back? Some of us can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Do you cruise the highway staring at your rearview mirror? No, but I damn sure do use my rearview mirror...nevermind...why am I getting sucked into nonsensical analogy after nonsensical analogy?

Part of the reason Fifth Third Arena’s upper bowl looks like the mouth on a Halloween pumpkin is because the basketball team hasn’t won enough. Understood. Ok, because the first half of your article makes it seem like you do not understand. Glad to see you are not completely ignorant. This is the essence of why UC attendance has suffered. Glad to see Doc is finally ready to tackle the real issue. Part of it is because we choose to live in the rearview mirror. That’s not fair. Worse, it’s corrosive. Wait that's it? That's all the time we get on the issue that actually drives attendance for nearly every program across the country. One minor acknowledge and immediately Doc gets back to focusing on the minor issue of people liking Huggs. I'm sure there is a tiny percentage where Doc's point may be true, but if the team wins consistently, if Cronin turns UC into the perennial top 15 program they were under Huggins...this minority will be impossibly hard to find.

This is no shot at Huggins. He deserves the respect we’ve afforded him. But enough is enough. It isn’t 1975, or 1992. Johnny Bench is 61 years old, Nick Van Exel is retired from the NBA. Huggins isn’t coming back. Somehow, the Final Four has survived UC’s 19-year absence. No one is arguing this point Doc. Yes the date is January 28, 2010 (at least at the time I am writing this).

“It is Huggins who’s selling (Saturday’s) game out,’’ says UC archivist Kevin Grace. Grace is a student of city history, sports and otherwise. He doesn’t agree that we spend excessive time looking behind, but acknowledges it’s a reason for Huggins’ ongoing hold on the local affections. “He doesn’t have a good team, but he does have a larger than life personality. People are going because Huggins is Huggins.’’ I'm glad we got Grace's basketball insight to tell us WVU is not a good team (top 20 RPI mind you, but not a good team), but what Doc neatly glosses over here is the fact that the history “expert” Doc brings in to lend credence to his article about Cincinnati spending an excessive amount of time looking backwards DISAGREES with Doc's assertion that Cincinnati spends an excessive amount of time looking backwards. Way to lend credence to your position Doc.

Grace believes that a return to the NCAA tournament is all UC needs for its fans to cease romanticizing the past. “Let’s face it, the Big East is professional sports,’’ Grace says. “Pro sports fans want a winner.’’ Nail on the head...winning is how we get the fans back to the Shoe (and you know a better economy would help as well).

I’d suggest Cronin and his group of quasi-amateurs could win it all, and there would still be a large local voice mumbling about the way Zimpher dealt with Huggins. That local voice mumbling would be none other than Paul Daugherty. It’s how we are around here. You are a walking, hypocritical testament to that.

We’re the same people who, on the day Great American Ball Park opened, booed Carl Lindner and cheered Marge Schott. We still slide headfirst in support of Pete Rose. And we still love Huggs, which would be OK if it didn’t come at the expense of the progress happening now in the home offices of Fifth Third Arena. Well good... it is OK because loving Huggs does not affect the progress down at Fifth Third Arena. It does not in the least.

“It doesn’t reflect the community at large,’’ Kevin Grace insists. I wonder how many people Doc tried to find that would agree with his take before he finally settled on someone who seemed to believe the complete opposite. Great reporting as always Doc.

Man, I hope not. Somehow I do not quite buy this... I really cannot wait to read Huggs/zimph part 6 from you this time next year.

Xavier At the Shoe

2011-01-06T19:43:00.000-08:00

In honor of tonight's shootout, a little Casey at the Bat style tribute.

The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Xavier five that day

The Bearcats stood 14-0, a better team than they

And then when Lyons nervously cried and Freese did the same

The team just stared in the lockerroom, frightened, as they waited for the game

They left the lockerroom as one, determined to give their best

As they marched onward to the court to begin their impossible test

Yet somehow they won the tipoff and jumped out to lead

At least for a little moment they could fight off the urge to conceed

But then the mighty Gates did force his way into the lane

and stuffed through a shattering dunk right over top of McClain

Then Rashad Bishop stroked a three and Davis then drained two

The Bearcats were now in business; there was nothin X could do

Then from 13,000 throats and more there rose a lusty yell

It shot throughout the rafters and the noise began to swell

It echoed at the Xavier bench and their players did go lame

For the Bearcats, the mighty Bearcats were taking control of the game

There was an ease in the Bearcats rhythm as they completely owned the court

Such pride in their performance as they dominated this sport

And when responding to the cheers they upped their game some more

Before you knew it another run, this one sixteen to four

Then the thug Tu Hallow threw a punch and earned himself a T

And in that classless moment the Cats stood tall, just letting it be

And when that final whistle blew the Bearcats won the day

15 and 0, now on they go...to dominate Big East play

Oh somewhere in this favored city the stars are shining bright

UC's band is playing somewhere, UC's fans hearts are light

The UC players now are laughing, and the muskies just lay and pout

Because there is no joy in Norwood... little Xavier just got BLOWN OUT.

Ranking My Fiction Reads- 2010

2010-12-31T08:25:00.000-08:00

In 2010 I started and finished 20 fiction Novels totaling approximately 11,000 pages. I started a 21st called The Terror by Dan Simmons, which I am currently reading and therefore won't include it on this years list. I divided my rankings into 4 tiers ranging from excellent to alright (thankfully only one book fit into the alright tier). By in large this list is in order of how I would rank the books, however, I often go back and forth on which books within each tier I liked more. Anyways here is how I would rank the fiction I read this year.

Tier 1 (Excellent)
1.Perdido Street Station - Easily the most original and well written book I read this year. The Slake Moths are absolutely terrifying and the introductory ride into New Crobuzon is breathtaking. China Mieville has a way with words like few authors do. He creates incredibly quirky and interesting species and some ridiculously cool ideas (The Weaver was amazing). The first couple parts are slow, but always fascinating and well written. The rest of the book is just awesome.

2.Snow Crash - Though a bit dated, Snow Crash is about as fun as a novel can get. From the opening description of the "Deliverator," to the pure awesomeness that is Y.T. this novel remains fun throughout. There is a rather large info dump in the middle which at times can get a bit tedious, but despite that Neal Stephenson delivers with a novel that is just pure entertainment.

3.The Lies of Locke Lamora- Scott Lynch's first in the Republic of Thieves series is both an original take on fantasy and a fun caper tale. The city of Camorr and the underworld that thrives there really comes alive and for a series novel it has a very satisfactory, self contained ending.

4.The Name of the Rose- A big credit to Eco with this book for as long as the book was and as many names and languages as it had I thought it was actually a fairly quick read. The language is top notch throughout, the descriptions are great, the tension is ever present and the history woven in is virtually unmatched in anything I have read.

5.A Fire Upon The Deep- The scope of this novel is nothing short of grand. Vinge takes many intriguing ideas, creates multiple fascinating alien races and gives us a tale that is epic in scope and fascinating to read. There are several amazing actions sequences that will keep you rivited throughout.

6.A Deepness in the Sky- Deepness does not quite have the epic scope of A Fire Upon the Deep, but it's a fascinating tale of the conflict among two groups of human space travelers centered around their varying desires of how to extract resources from the first known alien race. The idea of mindrot is very cool as is the moral dilemma it ends up causing for our protagonist. The alien race to me was very believable and though I found myself more interested in the human plot I thought the way they blended together worked well.

Tier 2 (Great reads, not quite up to level of Tier 1)
7.A Look to Windward- Banks is one of my favorite current writers, largely because of the brilliant action sequences he write, but with this story he takes a step back from much of the action (though we get a few cool scenes) to tell a tale of revenge. Slower paced than earlier Banks Culture novels, but just as thought provoking.

8.The Scar- The Scar was actually a better paced book than Perdido Street Station and had many of the great features that made Perdido so special (Many quirky species, incredibly cool creations and ideas, great visual depictions and beautifully written passages). Where I think it fell short was the tension never seemed as real and there was no entity to match The Weaver.

9.Old Man's War- Military Scifi to the core. This book flowed really well. It was a quick read, but entertaining throughout. The action scenes were intense and there was a surprising amount of humor from Scalza as well.

10.Red Seas Under Red Skies- The second in Lynch's Republic of Thieves series I did not find this quite as good. I liked the action in Camorr better than the action in this book. Still the heist scenes are very cool and the action on the high seas can be fun as well. Really anxious to see where he goes moving forward.

11.To Green Angel Tower Part 1- The first of the two part finally to Tad Williams' Memory, Sorrow, and Thorn series I thought this was actually slightly better than the conclusion. Williams finally got to a point where all his plots were intriguing and moving at a good pace.

12.To Green Angel Tower Part 2- The conclusion to Memory, Sorrow and Thorn and a very satisfactory end at that. I thought some of the travel scenes dragged a bit (as they tend to in fantasy), but I thought the end was very cool. The time Williams took to develop the characters and the world early in the series which often seamed excessive really worked to his benefit in the conclusion.

13.Against a Dark Background- This story is just a series of amazing action sequences which no one write better than Banks. I found Sharrow to be a fun protagonist and much of her back story helped develop the emotional gravity of the book. Still I though the scope really was not big enough for me to be as invested in the book. Definitely a fun read, just not an excellent read.

14.The Hunger Games- Credit Collins for being able to get me emotionally invested in characters I barely knew very early on in her novel. Though often predictable and convenient in it's solutions to problems that seem coming I thought The Hunger Games was paced incredibly well and fun throughout. I also felt that even the predictable and convenient parts of the story worked in the world Collins created. I'm anxious to read the last two novels in the series.

15.Cat's Cradle- Vonnegut always seems to deliver with his funny, dark wit. I really loved the idea of Bokononism and how the narrator (John/Jonah) tied everything that happened throughout the book to the various teachings of Bokononism. I thought it was very telling that the destruction that comes in this book did not come from evil or maliciousness, but from wreckless indifference and wreckless self action. Not as good as the Slaughterhouse Five, but typical Vonnegut in that it was humorous and dark with themes that strike you in a very real way.

Tier 4 (Good reads)
16.Storm Front- This first in Butcher's Dresden series was a very quick read and interesting blend of detective novel and urban fantasy. It was self contained and everything tied together nicely at the end. The novel was nothing special but showed the makings of a potentially fun series.

17.The Dragonbone Chair- The first of Williams' Memory, Sorrow and Thorn series. I thought the biggest fault with this book is the setup took to long and we were 250 pages in before anything happened. The travel scenes were also hit or miss. To its credit though the White Fox's were really cool and the end was wonderfully written. A good, though flawed book.

18.And Another Thing- Colfer does an admiral job of continuing The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy series. And Another Thing certainly has a different feel than the other Hitchhikers books, but it was still a fun read. In fact I'd argue it was as good as book 5 and much better than book 4 (which just didn't do it for me). Still it falls well short of the brilliance that defined the original three Hitchhikers novels.

19.The Stone of Farewell- Book 2 of Memory, Sorrow and Thorn. This flowed better than book 1, but I thought was the weakest overall of the four. To me not enough happened...there were not enough really cool scenes that we got at the end of the first novel and throughout To Green Angel Tower. That said there was some cool stuff in the Sithi city and the duel on the plains with the Thrithlings was worthwhile. Another good book that is ultimately flawed.

Tier 4 (Eh... book)
20.Good Omens- Really this book was my only disappointment in reading this year. Having loved American Gods I expected much more from this story. I did not find it particularly funny, or the conclusion particularly satisfactory. There are some alright moments, but for a book that is trying to be humorous at the expense of other aspects I just do not think it worked. Really it is the only book I read this year that I would not recommend to others.

Lack of Job Growth Kills Democrats

2010-11-03T08:15:00.000-07:00

It is easy to forget what an economic mess the democrats walked into just two years ago. If nothing else Tuesday night was a reminder that even with near disasterous collapse brought on before the Democrats took charge Americans have no patience when their jobs are in jeopardy. In October of 2007 the Dow Jones was at 13930.01. From there it essentially fell at a consistently steep rate until February of 2009 (when it reached 7062.93). This is significant because this is when the democrats implemented their economic policy. Since that day the Dow Jones has steady risen to 11188.72. Our financial institutions were saved and they have paid back every penny borrowed in the Obama bailout (only money they did not return was from the Bush bailout since he did not require them to pay it back). GM was saved and has also paid back the money they were given in the bailout.

In February of 2008 the unemployment rate in this country was 4.8 %, before Obama even took office the unemployment rate had moved up to 8 percent. So in less than a year the unemployment rate had gone up 3.2%. The unemployment rate reached nearly 9% before Obama and the democrats passed their economic policy. The democrats economic policy slowed down the growth in unemployment SIGNIFICANTLY. And after bottoming out at 10.1 in October of 2009 the rate has slowly started to move back down towards 9.6%.

The ironic thing is that had the republican economic policies that caused this MASSIVE recession not been so disastrous the democrats probably would have done better in this election. As it is, though we have seen massive improvements in the trends for both the dow jones and unemployment from what the Democrats inherited, though Americans still are dealing with consequences of those inherited policies. It was always going to take more than two years for the economy to recover from the incredible plummet we saw (which did not slow down until Obama's economic policy was implemented).

Americans vote with their pocket books so often and since there has not been a strong recovery in jobs to match the strong recovery in the market they are not happy. Though the majority of the deficit has actually come from lessened tax revenue due to recession, Americans see the Democrats spending money on something like Health Care when so many are still unemployed at it rubs them the wrong way. Tonight was inevitable for the democrats and though I think if they were as good at talking points as republicans they could have done better the fact was there was no way the democrats could have taken an economy that had been plummeting in the year before they implemented their policies and created a complete recovery.

It's funny to listen to the Obama administration be called Partisan. From day one Obama came in and tried to work with republicans. Even gave them certain things they wanted with the stimulus and bailout packages...republican leadership originally was willing to work with him on some of it and John Boehner made the calculated political move to obstruct on everything and ordered republican leadership to follow suit. It worked in this election because though the dow jones has recovered incredibly well from the year and a half plummet it was on prior to the democrats taking action, jobs have not comeback yet and Americans vote with their wallets.

Anyone remember John Boehner crying on the house floor trying to get support for Bush's tarp bailout (which was poorly structured and didn't require anything to be paid back)? Well when the banks still looked on the verge of collapse and Obama tried to get republican support for tarp (this time structured in a way that required it to be paid back) Boehner chose obstruction. In the end the Banks recovered after tarp was passed and repaid the money to the federal government. It was good legislation. It probably saved the financial institutions of this country. And the republicans decided to play politics with it.

That playing politics paid off for the last year because it was going to take more than 2 years to recover from the disasterous economic plummet that came prior to the Obama administration taking over, but now they'll actually have to offer something. They'll actually have to be more than just obstructionist. In the end that's probably a blessing for the democrats (though loosing that many seats was not the ideal way for it to happen).

Listening to republicans talk jobs is almost comical. In the year before Obama implemented his economic policy unemployment rose for 4.8 % to 9%. Unemployment rose under Obama to just over 10 percent and right now unemployment sits at 9.6%...clearly Obama has slowed down the rate of unemployment decline and we have scene a slow trend towards rising employment. The republicans railed against the bailout of General Motors, but how many more jobs would have been lost had this company collapsed? Instead the democrats designed a plan that allowed General Motors to continue to function and they have already paid back the government for the bailout money. They saved American jobs and republicans were against saving those jobs.

In the end jobs lagged too far behind the overall economic recovery and the democrats suffered this year at the ballot. It is going to take a strong recovery of jobs to go along with the dow jones for the Democrats to hold serve next time around. They still have the Presidency, they still have the Senate. Health Care will not be repealed. Democrats will still set the agenda and they still have two years to show that their economic policies saved this country from a decline that could have been way worse. And this time they will have a republican party that will have to do far more than obstruct. When you have no power you can play the obstructionist. You can act like your plans are not getting out of committee, you can pretend the other side is not trying to work with you...now the republicans actually have to bring something to the table. In the end I think we'll see job recovery and I think Obama will be able to make the economic argument in two years that their policies lead to significant recovery. I think he'll hold the presidency and hold the senate. They may not be able to take back the house so quickly, but having an opposition party that has to actually try to govern too may not be such a bad thing.

Thoughts on Miami Game, Louisville Game, and Bearcats heading into Conference Play

2010-10-12T10:38:00.000-07:00

So the Bearcats head into Big East play at a disappointing 2-3. They in fact are 0-3 in their games against meaningful competition blowing a 14-0 lead at Fresno State to start the year, getting beat all over the field by NC State, and beating themselves with bad turnovers against the Oklahoma Sooners. Yet is is strange to think I am feeling very good about the chances for UC to win a third straight conference title as they head into Big East play.

Many of us fans probably underestimated the adjustment period the offense would have to make. Against Fresno State, Indiana State and NC State the Bearcats looked confused in getting to the line. Players seemed to not be sure where to line up, lineman did not know who to block and Collaros seemed so concerned with getting us into what we were doing that he never seemed to read where and when teams would send pressure from. Basically it looked like the Bearcats were trying to implement a completely knew offensive system (and they were).

Against NC State as bad as they looked at times they seemed to start to get better...they would look more confident getting into their sets, though ultimately make a mistake that would kill drives. Still they moved the ball and were getting into their offense much more quickly. It was the Oklahoma game where we finally got to see a football team that looked comfortable. They got into their sets quickly, they ran it effectively, threw it effectively and played with the kind of tempo we have come to expect. Were it not for a 4 turnovers that could have been the signature non-conference win Bearcat fans have been waiting for.

As it stands the Bearcats came back this Saturday night and did what they should have done...manhandled a vastly inferior Miami Redhawks football team. So though the start to the season leaves something to be desired it seems the talent is finally showing through for UC. The young defense has shown flashes that it can be really good at times. I am sure there will be struggles, but I like the direction the defense is heading in. And the offense is in position to do what we thought they should do coming into the season...be one of the premier offenses in the country.

Miami Rivalry:

Before I talk some Louisville and get into the conference season I have a few thoughts on the Miami rivalry. A few years ago Brian Kelly suggested that UC would need to investigate whether or not it was in UC's interest to continue playing Miami as the series is presently constructed. At times there was some outrage over this particularly from Miami fans and I think BK largely said it to get UC fans to start thinking of UC as a Big Time program. If nothing else BK was always a salesman. Still there is plenty of truth in what he said.

Tim Adams covered this more in depth than I will in a really good article over at Bearcatlair.com, but here are my basic thoughts on the Miami series. As it is presently constructed the game just does not make a whole lot of sense for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have won the last 5 games by an average of more than 4 touchdowns, but whatever, that kind of thing happens... hell Miami ran off a few in a row not too long before that. I jokingly said it is not much of a rivalry when you are pulling your starters up 45-3 in the second quarter, but what struck me even more than that was the general apathy for the game from the Miami fan base. At Nippert stadium could you fine more than 30 people wearing Redhawk colors, because it was a struggle for me?

If it is to be a meaningful rivalry by any standard then it seems to me there would be more interest from a University with plenty of alumni in the greater Cincinnati area. The fact of the matter is UC loses money to drive up and play Miami in Oxford every other year. Last year there were around 10,000 Bearcat fans who made the trip North, so I can understand Miami wanting to get a home game every other year. Those 10,000 Bearcat fans give a nice boost to Miami attendence (a constant struggle for them) and bring in a significant amount of additional revenue to the school. UC does not need a game with Miami at Nippert to bring the additional revenue to the school. UC is going to get a near sellout at this point regardless of who comes into Nippert. The benefit to playing the game is obvious to Miami, but not so much to Cincinnati.

Now I want to make it clear. I want to continue to play the game. Hell, I would love to beat them every year. The issue becomes what kind of arrangement would make it beneficial for UC to continue playing it. There was a time when every game between the two schools was played in Cincinnati. I could see that working out, but at that point there is really no reason for Miami to want to play it. I think the logical solutions are either 1. giving UC some sort of a 2 for 1 deal where two games are played at Nippert for every one at Miami, or 2. Negotiating a deal with Miami for splitting much of the ticket revenue when the game is in Oxford.

UC has 5 non-conference games to fill every year and in my ideal world Miami will be one of those games, but there has to be some value for UC in doing it. I'm fine with making the trip up to Nippert North every other year as long as UC is getting a fair shake out of the deal and as it is now Bearcat fans are basically subsidizing the Miami athletic department for that one game every two years up in Oxford and getting little in return (other than a guarentee win).

Judging by the lack of Miami supporters I have seen at Nippert the past couple of times UC and Miami met it does not seem to me that the rivalry is anything like it once was. There is aparthy towards the game among the fans of our one time rivals. For historical purposes I would love to play the game and I am sure UC and Miami could strike a deal that is more than fair to what both schools bring to the game, but the deal as currently structured is not a good deal for UC. It is a deal that Miami gets a lot more out of than UC and one that needs to be addressed in the coming years.

Preparing for Louisville:

As one rivalry/trophy game ends another approaches. For the second time this season the Bearcats have a short week to prepare for a football game on the road. Friday night the Bearcats go back to Louisville where they managed to win two years ago, but in general has been a place the Bearcats have struggled. This is a revamped Louisville team that after two years of highly unorganized, bad football are slowly working their way back towards relevance in the Big East. They remind me of Syracuse last season in that I still think at season's end they will be towards the bottom of the conference, but they are not going to be a pushover and will continue to progress throughout the season.

What has impressed me the most about Louisville this season is their ability to withstand adversity. There were a couple of times in the Kenutcky game to start the year that Kentucky could have put Louisville away and yet Louisville fought on making it a good game throughout. Their fight was also evident in their loss to a pretty good Oregon State team. My general point is that this is a game where if UC comes out sloppy or makes mistakes they could easily get beat, but if they play to their top ability they should win by two+ touchdowns.

Louisville's strengths are their running game and their ability to rush the passer. I believe the UC defense should match up well in limiting Louisville's ability to run the football and will force the Cardinals to beat them through the air. Louisville's running back Bilal Powell is 8th nationally with 689 yards rushing and he is getting those yards at a rate of 7.6 per pop. If the Cardinals are able to consistently move the ball on the ground it could be a long day for the Bearcat defense. Louisville's ability to rush the passer is what really worries me most about this game. When the Bearcats looked bad early in the season it was because Fresno State and NC State were absolutely abusing the Bearcat offensive line and wreaking havoc in the backfield. It is an even bigger concern than usual because we do not know yet if Alex Hoffman will play friday night at Louisville. Though the Bearcats have seemingly righted the ship starting with the Oklahoma game it would be nice to see them do it aganst a team as prolific rushing the passer as Louisville.

In the end I believe the ability of the Bearcat offense to break off big plays both running the football and through the air will be the difference. Louisville will be a much stiffer test than Miami last week, but I think by the time the game is done the Bearcats will have a 37 to 20 win.

This is a big three game stretch for the Bearcats in that it gives them a chance to get on a roll in conference play. Louisville, South Florida and Syracuse could very well end up finishing in the last three spots in the Big East this year (though I believe the league seems more wide open than I initially believed). Winning these three games will be critical if UC has asperations on a third straight Big East title. Louisville might be the key game in that stretch seeing that it is a rivalry game and on the road (where the other two games are at home against two teams the Bearcats have owned of late). Winning the next three would put the Bearcats at 3-0 heading into a bye week which would set up the stretch run towards a Big East title. I think the Bearcats are poised to really break through the next three weeks and reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the Big East.

2010 Bearcat Football Preview

2010-08-31T18:56:00.000-07:00

How do you top back to back outright Big East Championships? How do you top a 12-0 regular season and a top ten finish? How do you replace a coach who went 34-7 in his three seasons and 4 Bowl games at the University of Cincinnati? These are the questions Bearcat fans and Butch Jones are going to be thinking about heading into 2010.

This has been an incredible run for University of Cincinnati football. On November 28, 2006 the University of Cincinnati Bearcats took the field vs. the #6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Bearcats were sitting at 5-5 on the season. To that point they had been 9-12 over the past two seasons and 28-31 over their past five seasons. The Bearcats went on to beat the #6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights and since they took the field that day are 36-7. Since that day they have been to 4 bowl games, 2 BCS games, had 3 top 20 finishes, won back to back outright Big East Championships, had an undefeated regular season and a top ten finish. This is a run that would have been hard for the most ardent Bearcat fans to see coming and it is a level of success fans now not only want to see continue but are starting to expect.

These are the stakes for the 2010 edition of the University of Cincinnati football team. Anything short of another Big East title will be a disappointment to them and to many fans. None of the past two Bearcat teams have been perfect but they have achieved their success by constantly making plays when the stakes were high late in games. They have achieved their success by finding ways to win games. Make no mistake there is talent across the board, but there are clear holes too and it has been an ability to pick each other up despite their flaws that has been the true brilliance of the Bearcat's run of success.

On Defense:

Last season the Bearcats had to replace ten starters from an experienced defense that had carried the Bearcats at times the prior three seasons. At times they performed very well, particularly early in the seasons. They slowed down Rutgers, they held what turned out to be a very good Oregon State offense to 18 points, they frustrated South Florida in the second half and made life tough for West Virginia for much of that game. The defense was clearly not the strength of the team, but for much of the year they were not a huge liability either. Still there were times, particularly late in the year when the Bearcat defense looked downright dreadful. A defense that was designed not to give up big plays gave up a ton of big plays against both UCONN and Florida. And for much of the first half against Pittsburgh the defense was nonexistent.

The hope from Bearcat fans is that many of the problems the Bearcats had were not just personnel related but also scheme related. The Bearcat defense was a 3-4 and much of the talent probably was not suited for the 3-4. The 3-4 defense also left their smaller linebackers more vulnerable to being blocked by big offensive lineman. So there hopefully is some truth in that, but ultimately the Bearcats issue this year is going to be inexperience and depth.

This year's defense at least in terms of senior leadership is less experienced than last year's. Gone are key senior leaders like Aaron Webster, Andre Revels, Alex Daniels and Curtis Young. The Bearcat 2 deep this year features only 2 seniors and that includes no seniors among the projected starters. On the plus side the Bearcats do returns 6 starters from last season (or at least players who started a significant amount of games last season). Derek Wolfe begins his third season (second as a full time starter) and should be poised for a huge year. Wolfe was forced to be the lone defensive tackle last year in the 3-4 defense and still managed strong numbers with 41 tackles, 5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. The switch back to the 4-3 should free up Wolfe to make more of an impact in the backfield. The Bearcat defensive line as a hole lacks ideal size (outside of Wolfe and Hughes), but have some explosive players who do get into the backfield. I think the defensive line will continue to be very good about getting after the quarterback (something Bearcats teams have done going back to the Minter era), but the major question for the group will be do they hold up against the big, strong offensive lines from teams like Oklahoma, UCONN, Pitt and to a lesser extent Fresno State?

I am hoping that though Walter Stewart is listed as a starting linebacker that Bearcat fans will get to see him line up at end on some passing downs as he is great when attacking the quarterback. To me Walter Stewart is the Bearcat whose progress I am most excited to see this year. I was incredibly impressed with what Stewart was able to do last year filling in for Curtis Young. All indications are that Stewart has had a great off-season. Like much of the defense he will be shifting his role some, specifically for him to an outside linebacker in the 4-3 where his ability to cover and support in run defense will be a factor. I think Walter is a talented guy and should excel, so I am anxious for play to start. The Bearcat linebackers are a bit small as a group particularly on the weak side with Maalik Bomar getting the nod. Still I think this can be a position of strength for the Bearcats as Stewart is incredibly gifted and JK Schaffer has shown very good instincts in his two years as a linebacker for UC. Plus I think moving back the the 4-3 you can get away with having smaller faster linebackers as long as the defensive lineman are disruptive.

The Bearcats are replacing two starters in their secondary, the biggest loss being Aaron Webster who had a great senior season. With two starters returning this is seemingly a reasonably experienced group and yet the 2 deep features 5 sophomores, 2 juniors and a freshman. Drew Frey though is not your ordinary Sophomore. By the time he leaves he will seemingly have been a Bearcat for a decade. Frey and Battle are two relative knowns for the Bearcat defense, so the key to the secondary will be how young players like Reubon Johnson, Camerron Cheatham, Adrian Witty and Chris Williams fair. Getting good play from Wesley Richardson in his first year starting at free safety will be key as well. Overall I think there is some good talent back there and am anxious to see how they perform.

The area of concern that everyone who follows the program closely seems to harp back on when they talk about the 2010 Bearcat defense is finding quality depth. As noted earlier much of the two deep is very young and though the Bearcat defense in general is somewhat undersized the backups are considerably undersized at certain areas. If somehow the Bearcats can get really solid years from the likes of Jordan Stepp, Rob Trigg, Colin Lozier, Obadiah Cheatham and Robby Armstrong than maybe the defense can hold up better throughout the season this year. The thought is that the Bearcats may once again have to win some shootouts this year, if this defense can take a big step forward this season and become not necessarily a strength but at least a positive this could be yet another banner year for Bearcat football.

On Offense:

On the first drive of the season against Rutgers last year the Bearcat offense set the tone for what they would be. The Bearcats went 81 yards in 9 plays taking just over 2 minutes to score. It was play after play for positive yards, in quick succession and they were in the end zone. For much of the year the Bearcats were unstoppable on offense, playing at a breakneck pace with ruthless efficiency. They seemingly scored every time they wanted to and they had weapons all across the field When Tony Pike went down with a broken arm, the offense made some subtle adjustments to their style and Zach Collaros continued the trend of ruthless efficiency.

The 2010 Bearcat offense has the potential to be every bit as good as the 2009 offense, though at times slightly different in their style. The Bearcats will still primary be a shotgun spread offense. They will still come at you with multiple receivers, tight ends and running backs. This season though there seems to be a more a focus on running the football. In fact when I look at what Bearcat offense I expect to see, the West Virginia game sticks out in my mind from last season.

Zach Collaros will begin his first full season running the show. Zach was absolutely brilliant in his 4.5 games last year. He completed 75 percent of his passed throwing for 1434 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also ran for 334 yards and 4 touchdowns giving Butch Jones a duel threat quarterback much like he had at Central Michigan. I know the general consensus has been that it seems unreasonable to expect Zach to be as brilliant as he was in those 4.5 games...but why not? Indeed what is there to make us think he cannot be even better?

Last offseason Zach was splitting the second string reps with two other backup quarterbacks while Tony Pike was being prepared to start. This offseason Zach has been getting the first string reps, he knows he is the quarterback and he is getting to work more and more extensively with the rest of the first team. I have to believe that counts for a whole lot.

Last season the offensive line was a big strength for the Bearcats. Pike and Collaros both had time to throw and when UC ran the ball they almost always ran it effectively. The line also gave up very few sacks despite passing a high percentage of the time. The Bearcats return three starters on the offensive line in Griffin, Kelce, and Hoffman. If the offensive line can continue to be a strong as it was last season this offense should once again have a chance to put up huge numbers. Griffen slides over to Left Tackle to take over for Linkenbach. While Kelce slides back to center to take over for Jurek. Alex Hoffman and Evan Davis will be the guards while CJ Cobb plays right tackle. All these guys were key parts of the offensive line productivity last season. It will be very important to get good production from guys like Hoeey, Martinez and Cuerton. If the offensive line can open holes and protect Collaros that will open up opportunities for the abundance of talent and athleticism the Bearcats have at their skill positions.

With the stated focus on running the ball we can expect Isaiah Pead to have a very big season. Pead averaged a stellar 6.7 yards per carry last season though he only carried the ball 121 times. With the increased workload it may be unrealistic to expect that type of yards per carry (as teams will be more aware of run), but because of all the Bearcats weapons teams really will never have the chance to simply key on Pead. As long as Pead stays healthy I think we can expect to see a 1200-1400 yard season. A couple reasons I don't think Pead will go much over that are that I think we'll see Zach getting some runs on the read option and I expect to see the other running backs get in on the action as well.

Most importantly, though the Bearcats will be more committed to the run this year, I still think they will throw more than they run. In the end this team is at its best when they are putting pressure on teams by getting the ball in the hands of their playmaking wide receivers. That will be just as much the case this season as last season. Despite the loss of Mardy Gilyard the Bearcats may be as good as any team in the country at the skill positions. The Bearcats will look to Vidal Hazelton to take over for Gilyard as the explosive playmaker and will once again be strengthened by Armon Binns (a premier down field threat) and DJ Woods another big time receiver with explosive playmaking ability. Ben Guidugli is back for his senior year after a very good junior campaign and anything the Bearcats get from talented guys like Marcus Barnett and Adrien Robinson is gravy.

It will be very, very difficult for opposing defenses to match up with the depth of talent UC can run at them if Collaros has time to throw the football. If I had to guess I would still bet on UC throwing the ball close to 60 percent of the time when the game is in doubt (now in blowouts we may run more and kill clock) simply because I firmly believe that is where this team has its biggest strength (this is obviously with know inside knowledge, I'm sure those closer to the program may know better). My hope is that this offense can control the ball a bit more, keep the defense fresh and be just as ruthlessly efficient as last years squad.

Special Teams (and intangibles):

And here is where the question of how do you replace Mardy Gilyard comes full circle? How do you replace the three absolutely enormous returns Mardy had to set up touchdowns against Pittsburgh (most notably the one down 21 at the end of the half, but lets not forget the field position he gave them on the game winning drive)? How do you replace a guy who continually did it on the biggest of stages? I have to admit I have never enjoyed watching anyone on any team more than I enjoyed watching Mardy the past couple of years and it all came down to just his unreal ability to do it when it mattered most.

The Bearcats might be better this year at wide receiver, but will they have that hidden something Mardy gave them. In general I am pretty confident in the return game. I think there are a number of guys the Bearcats could put on special teams who would consistently give them great field position and pose a threat to opposing teams. It sounds like that duty is going to fall in the hands of Vidal Hazelton and DJ Woods. Woods we have seen do it in the past, Hazelton is the guy all Bearcat fans are aching to see. I think once again we will see the return game be a huge plus for the Bearcats, but it is hard to imagine it being better without Mardy.

I also expect big things from Jake Rogers who has just gotten better every year for the Bearcats. Jake's powerful leg gives the Bearcats a huge advantage in kickoff coverage and it was an advantage we saw time and time again last season. To me Jake was very impressive last year in that he was asked to punt (all be it not that often) and asked to kick field goals. I have grown in confidence when Jake kicks every year and though I hope he does not have to kick too many field goals I think we will have one of the better kickers in the nation when he does,

Punter to me is an unknown commodity. What I have heard of O'Donnell is he has a huge leg and just has to get his consistency in order (reminds me of Adam Wulfeck in that he could boom a seventy yarder and a 25 yarder on back to back punts). UC has really been good in their punt games the past few seasons first with Huber and then to a lesser extent with Rogers last year.

I think special teams has been one of those things that has really put UC over the top and allowed them to win some of those tossup games that got them to a conference title the past couple of years. Can that continue to be a huge strength? That will go a long way to determining if UC can win a third straight Big East title.

Season Projections:

Saturday, September 4 @ Fresno State- This is a game that really worries me. Fresno State returns their entire offensive line, an offensive line that could potentially give the Bearcats smallish defensive line trouble. I think the shift back to the 4-3 will help the Bearcats deal with them better this year. Fresno State, however, is more than the smash mouth run team we saw last year. They have an experienced, capable quarterback and talent at wide receiver. They will probably score some, but I think the defense holds and their defense has a hard time stopping us. WIN

Saturday, September 11, Indiana State- Nothing to say here... UC will dominate a wretched team. WIN

Thursday, September 16 @ NC State- The good thing about playing Indiana State is that UC can probably start looking at NC State a little early for the short week. NC State will be a big test for UC's secondary. Russell Wilson is one heck of a quarterback and he will put pressure on UC with his feet and his arm. Ultimately I think UC will be able to put enough pressure and score enough to win, but this is another scary game. WIN (But Worries Me)

Saturday, September 25, Oklahoma- A day many of us Bearcat fans have really looked forward to as the Sooners make the return trip to Cincinnati (I know we are planning an all out tailgate and will flag down all OU fans to join us because of the hospitality they showed a couple years ago). Oklahoma has the type of offensive line that could give this defense trouble. Still there is a reason Oklahoma struggled at times last year and I do not know if they are as dominate as they were two seasons ago in Norman. UC will be really up, it will be in Cincinnati... who knows... That said. LEANING TOWARDS LOSS

Saturday, October 9, Miami (OH)- The Bell Stays in Cincinnati... now and forever. WIN

Friday, October 15 @ Louisville- I think this will be a tougher game than last year. It's never easy to go down there and win especially in a rivalry game. That said UC is just a much better team. WIN

Friday, October 22, South Florida- We had their number when Grothe was in charge and frankly I just do not think they are good enough to come up here this year and win. They are going to be vulnerable on defense and not consistent enough on offense. WIN

Saturday, October 30, Syracuse- Our first three games in conference come against what I think will be the bottom three teams in the Big East this season. The schedule makers certainly are giving the Bearcats plenty of time to get their game in order this year, but they are setting up one hell of a difficult finish. WIN

Saturday, November 13 @ West Virginia- The last bye week comes before the start of the four game stretch that will decide the conference. Two years ago Cincinnati went into West Virginia and got the big win they needed to win the conference. This year we get an extra week to prepare and that will be huge (of course WVU gets the extra week as well). WVU returns more starters than any team in the conference and they will be hungry after the last two seasons. I think UC matches up better against the WVU running attack than they do the Pitt/UCONN running attacks. If it was at UC I would favor the Bearcats, but it is on the road... what the hell I still favor the Bearcats. LEANING TOWARDS WIN (barely)

Saturday, November 20, Rutgers- The other team the Bearcats have seemingly owned the past few seasons. I think by this time Rutgers will really be playing good football. Savage will have been the quarterback for nearly two seasons and the defense will be clicking. That said...it is at Nippert and I just do not think Rutgers is coming here and winning (night game please). WIN

Saturday, November 27 @ UCONN- Finally the Bearcats get the chance to avenge their last loss in the Big East and what a game this could end up being. UCONN has the advantage of playing WVU/PITT/UC all at home and will already have played WVU/PITT at this point. We will know then if UCONN has lived up to their hype coming into the season. I think the balance of UCONN's power blocking offensive line and their late found passing game could give UC trouble again this year. Still it is hard to shake the big lead UC had last year. UC will be coming off back to back very tough games. I keep playing this game in my head and have a harder time figuring out the result every time. TOSSUP

Saturday, December 4, Pittsburgh- Could the Big East title come down to a game with Pittsburgh for the third straight season? I would say the odds are are fairly decent of that happening. Pittsburgh could give UC trouble in many of the same ways they gave UC trouble last year, but this year I do not know that Pittsburgh's offensive line will be as good and I my hope is UC will have developed enough depth that their defense will be playing much better by this game. In the end playing at Nippert Stadium at the end of the year, in what I hope will be another prime time Big East game... I have to take the Bearcats. LEANING TOWARDS WIN

Looking back at my projections I have 7 solid wins. I have the NC State game as a win, but it does worry me a bit. I have two games (WVU and Pitt) where I am leaning towards a Bearcat win, one true tossup game against UCONN, and the Oklahoma game where I am leaning towards loss. That puts my range of record anywhere from 7-5 to 12-0 (yeah, unlike last year when I idiotically made 11-1 my best case scenario...never doing that again). In all honesty I have this team losing 2 of those 5 games to finish 10-2... and I have them as the team with the Best chance to win the Big East title. The last three years I have had the Bearcats predicted for 9-3 (2007, dead on), 11-2 (2008, dead on) and 10-2 (2009, two games below actual). Lets hope the trend of me being right or undervaluing the Bearcats continues...because I still want to dream National Championship. All in all very excited for football to begin.

OHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHH... OH OH OH OH...UC!!!

Go Bearcats!

2010 Big East Preview

2010-08-30T15:14:00.000-07:00

2009 was supposed to be about rebuilding in the Big East, but we really did get to see some teams turn in great season (particular Cincinnati). The top 6 teams turned in very good years and though it was not great year for the conference as a whole 2010 seems like it could be a year that really capitalizes on the building momentum for the conference. Nearly all of the teams at the top of the Big East return key experience on both sides of the football. If there ever was a year for the Big East to showcase its talent this could be it.

In the Big East the perception from the outside (that it is a lesser conference among the BCS conferences) has continued to not be matched by objective reality. In 2009, despite it being a year of relative inexperience for the league, the Big East finished the season second to only the SEC in the Sagarin's. In fact since 2006 when the Big East was first unveiled as it is today the conference has finished 2nd twice in the Sagarin's (2006 and 2009) and finished 4th in 2007 and 5th in 2008. The reality is the Big East continues to not only show it's legitimacy as a BCS conference, but it continues to show it is a serious player on the national stage.

The Big East will get plenty of chances to build on their success against other BCS conferences and in the rankings with several big out of conference games:

Pittsburgh at Utah (Thursday, September 2) – Soon to be Pac Ten member Utah gets to host last years second place Pitt Panthers. Not an easy task for Pittsburgh who will be breaking in a new quarterback, but a game they should be able to win.

Kentucky @ Louisville (Saturday, September 4)- Louisville is still likely at least a year away from breaking out of the bottom of the Big East, but it would be a nice win for the conference if they can take down their rivals from the SEC.

Syracuse @ Washington (Saturday, September 11)- Another Big East team traveling across the country for a game against a solid opponent. Though their record did not reflect it that well the Orangemen were significantly more competitive last season.

South Florida @ Florida (Saturday, September 11)- Cannot see South Florida stealing one in the swamp, but it would be nice.

Cincinnati @ NC State (Thursday, September 16)- Another Big East team hitting the road against BCS competition (take notes Big 10 and SEC). This is a game the two time defending champions from the Big East really should win.

Louisville @ Oregon State (Saturday, September 18)- Probably unlikely but this would be a huge win for the conference.

Miami (Fl) @ Pittsburgh (Thursday, September 23)- The first of the really marque match-ups for the Big East. These ACC/Big East showdowns are always interesting and it is always nice when the Big East comes out on top.

Oklahoma @ Cincinnati (Saturday, September 25)- Been waiting for this game for two years. This is an enormous chance for the Big East against a team picked by many to compete for a national title.

WVU @ LSU (Saturday, September 25)- Really a huge week for the conference as it's top three programs over the last few years play top programs from the Big 12, SEC and ACC.

Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (Saturday, October 9)- Any game against ND is going to get people's attention regardless of how good they are and I cannot help but believe Brian Kelly will have them playing good football by this point.

South Florida @ Miami FL (Saturday, November 27)- Another big interstate matchup for South Florida against one of the favorites in the ACC.

With the experience returning in the Big East the league has the opportunity to get a bunch of really strong out of conference wins and once again show they are a strong BCS conference. I really believe this could be a banner year for the conference.

Projected Order of Finish-

1. Cincinnati Bearcats- The champs stay the champs until they are no longer the champs, to me this pick is really that simple. I know Pittsburgh is the fashionable pick and West Virginia returns the most starters, but the Bearcats are the two time defending champions in the conference and they have beaten both the Panthers and Mountaineers each of the past two seasons. The Bearcats bring to the table perhaps the best wide receiving group in the country. They have experience on the offensive line and have experience and depth at running back. In fact it is the Bearcat running game where I expect to see the biggest improvement this year as Pead starts getting more touches (he was great when he was given the ball last year) and Zach Collaros adds to the running threat as the starting QB. This was shaping up to be a year where Cincinnati would have to break in a new quarterback, but with the emergence of Zach Collaros last season while Tony Pike was injured I think those concerns have been largely silenced. In 4.5 Big East games Zach threw for 1434 yards, completing 75 percent of his passes with ten touchdowns for a spectacular quarterback rating of 195. He also ran for 334 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bearcat fans are rightfully excited about what he can bring to the offense.

One concern for the Bearcats is a defense which was lit up pretty well late in the season. Most close to the program have pretty good confidence in the starters who have experience and played fairly well last season for most the year. The big concern for the Bearcat defense is do they have the depth to be strong through injuries and not fatigue at the end of the season.

There are two other major concerns for this Bearcat team. 1. Can they replace the greatness that was Mardy Gilyard? And 2. Can Butch Jones get the Bearcat talent to perform at the level Brian Kelly consistently achieved. I already mentioned that the Bearcat's biggest strength will be at the wide receiver position and I very much believe that, but Mardy Gilyard was far more than a wide receiver. His ability to make huge plays both on offense and in the return game was absolutely critical to the Bearcat's success over the last two seasons. They do not necessarily need someone to duplicate everything Mardy did, but there is no doubt that his production on the biggest of stages was an enormous part of pulling out some tight games. The second major question can only be answered with time. Brian Kelly's offense was almost unfathomably efficient throughout most of last season. This season the Bearcat offense has enough talent to be even better, but how much will the loss of Brian Kelly effect that. The hope from most Bearcat fans is that the offense will not miss a beat, and Butch Jones has certainly shown impressive offensive credentials in his own right, but you never know. The other hope is that Butch Jones and company can make the defense tough in ways that seemed lacking last year under Brian Kelly. Any improvements on defense will be an enormous step forward in the Bearcat's hopes of winning another Big East title.

There are certainly more questions this year, but the potential is there for the Bearcats to be even better this season. In the end I cannot pick against the two time defending Big East Champions. There is a reason they have won 18 straight regular season games and that reason will come front and center once again.

2. Pittsburgh Panthers- The Pitt vs. Cincinnati defacto Big East championship game worked out so well last year that it looks like the Big East conference wants to try their luck again. The Panthers bring back key talent on both sides of the ball. They have tall athletic receivers including the all-Big East Jonathan Baldwin. Most importantly on offense all everything Dion Lewis starts his second year. Lewis was absolutely sensational as a freshman. With Lewis and a strong offensive line (particularly on the edges) the Panthers should be in good shape running the football. Pitt's biggest concern on offense will be replacing Stull at quarterback. In steps Tino Sunseri who only threw 17 passes all last season. The good news for Tino is there will be plenty of weapons in his offense. Still Pittsburgh's difficult non-conference schedule will mean Tino gets thrown into the fire very early.

Pittsburgh's defense should also be among the best in the conference. Pittsburgh was very solid against the run last season, but struggled at times against strong passing attacks. The two dreadful second halves against Cincinnati and North Carolina State were the most glaring examples of this. Pitt probably will not face any teams with quite as dominate a passing game as Cincinnati and NC State had last year (though Cincinnati's passing game should be very good again), which will be to their benefit, but a huge key to them breaking through will be getting more consistent in pass defense.

T-3. West Virginia- West Virginia and UCONN are probably the two most experienced teams going into the 2010 Big East season. The Mountaineers return 18 starters from a team that finished tied for second in the conference. They get the defending champion Cincinnati Bearcats in Morgantown, however they have to travel to both Pitt and UCONN. Like Pittsburgh, WVU will be breaking in a new quarterback in 2010. Geno Smith seems to have the talent to get this Mountaineer team to compete for a Big East title and this could be the best WVU defense of the past five seasons.

Ultimately the success of the Mountaineers will come down to their running game. Noel Devine has consistently been one of the best backs in the Big East and one of the more explosive backs in the country. WVU always seems to have one of the nations best rushing attacks. Despite that West Virginia has had some trouble converting third downs the past couple of years and those troubles have no doubt cost them some chances at winning a Big East title.

T-3. Connecticut- The UCONN Huskies have seemingly become the trendy pick in the Big East conference this year. Much of it comes down to the fact that the Huskies finished the season winning their last 4 games, including a bowl game against South Carolina (from the vaunted SEC). I still do not think we can look past the fact that those 4 wins were against teams that finished a combined 25-25. UCONN's five losses were all close, but they were also all to the best five teams on their schedule. I think sometimes we get too caught up on the finish without looking at it in context.

That said this Husky team dealt with a bunch of issues last year and were playing their best ball down the stretch (particularly on offense). They return 16 starters who were in every game last year. UCONN also gets their three chief rivals for the conference title (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia) at home in 2010. The Huskies actually finished as one of the better offensive teams in the conference last season and there is no reason not to expect the offense to be very good again this year. The offensive line is big and strong and their running backs (Particularly Jordan Todman) are explosive. Their passing game seemed to get its act together late last season, if Zach Frasier and company can maintain that success UCONN will be dangerous.

To me the biggest concern for the Huskies is going to be their defense (which seems strange for a Randy Edsall coached team). The Huskies will not win the conference without significant improvement on that side of the ball, particularly in pass coverage. If UCONN can get their pass defense together and can continue to be balanced offensively they will have a chance to win the Big East and earn their first BCS bid.

5. Rutgers- I believe any of the top 4 teams have the chance to win the Big East this season... Rutgers is the first of 2 teams I do not think are quite good enough to win the league, but could easily finish above a couple of the teams projected ahead of them. Since the Scarlet Knight's real breakout year in 2006 Rutgers has strung together 3 good, but not great seasons. Indeed from where they were in 2006 they have been a bit of a disappointment. I think much of that comes down to the fact that the Big East has gotten much deeper since that year. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and South Florida are much more established and playing at a much higher level than they were in 2006. It is far more of a grind to get through the Big East now than it was then.

This season Rutgers brings back sophomore quarterback Tom Savage, who essentially was the starter all season for the Scarlet Knights as a freshman. Savage showed a ton of potential in what could be a great four years for him at Rutgers. Savage also gets back Mohamed Sanu one of his favorite targets, and the man who will likely be the go to receiver this season. Rutgers has some questions on the offensive line; they also have a fairly difficult conference schedule having to travel to Cincinnati, to Pittsburgh and to West Virginia. If the offensive line can protect Savage and open wholes for Joe Martinek than the Scarlet Knights could be right in the thick of the conference race (though ultimately I do not think they are quite ready to win it).

6. South Florida- The Bulls have been a team that represents the Big East very well out of conference, but never quite seems to get everything together in the conference. Last years injury to Matt Grothe probably set them back a little, but it also offered a chance for B.J. Daniels to show what could be on the horizon. Like the Bearcats and the Cardinals, South Florida is going through a coaching transition having parted ways with Jim Leavitt. Skip Holtz comes in as the second coach in South Florida history. He had a nice track record at ECU and should be able to build on the success South Florida has already had in their short history.

The South Florida offense should be dangerous at times, with Daniels explosiveness and some skilled players in the running game, but I am not sure they will have the consistency of the five teams I have above them. The defense, which has always seemed to have playmakers, only returns four starters from last season. Most notably it will be incredibly difficult to replace the production of defensive ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. South Florida also lost their two best players in the secondary in safety Nate Allen and cornerback Jerome Murphy. The losses on defense, the young quarterback and the coaching change make this sort of a transition year for South Florida. In the end I think they will certainly be a good team, but they may be a few steps behind the top of the league.

7. Syracuse- Syracuse was noticeably more competitive in their first year under Doug Marrone but they were still a good ways behind much of the rest of the league. They return ten starters on defense so they have that going for them. They must replace noted Duke flopping point guard Greg Paulus after his one year as the starting quarterback. To that end they will turn to Ryan Nassib. Look for Syracuse to be a very run focused offense this year. I still believe Syracuse and Louisville will be fighting for that last place spot once again in 2010.

8. Louisville- It is kind of nice to pick Louisville for another last place finish in the Big East. Really the best hope for the Cardinals is that every team they play at home comes and tries to stand on their logo before the game, because this team is still likely a year or two away from getting away from the bottom of the Big East. Charlie Strong has certainly brought some needed optimism to a program that severely lacked it throughout the Kragthorpe era. Strong has a very good recruiting class and seems to be moving Louisville in the right direction, but ultimately Louisville just does not have enough this season to escape the bottom of the conference. I look for Louisville to be much like Syracuse last season. They will be more competitive throughout Conference play and at the end of the year everyone will agree they are moving in the right direction, but ultimately it will be another tough season. I am picking Syracuse above Louisville only because they are a year ahead in the rebuilding process.

Get Off Lebron's Back

2010-07-09T11:08:00.001-07:00

Everyone seems to have an opinion on the Lebron James' free agent saga, so what the hell here is mine: Lebron had every right to do exactly what he wanted to do. It is amazing to me how many people and pundits have tried to attach their own value judgment to Lebron's decision. To me the decision first and foremost seemed to come down to one thing, Lebron liked playing with Wade and Bosh and he wanted to get to play with Wade and Bosh. Throw out any angle you want but it seems as simple as that.

Right now the most visceral reaction is coming from Cleveland and its hard to blame a city whose 1 team worth watching is about to go from the best record in the NBA to one of the worst. Still Cleveland fans have an enormous inferiority complex as it is (and rightfully so) and it is understandable they are upset right now. Still what their idiot owner pulled last night was inexcusable. Lebron James made him a ton of money over his seven years in Cleveland. Lebron carried that team night after night when any off night would mean a loss. The simple fact is that Dan “shut your dumb ass mouth” Gilbert did not surround Lebron with a team that could realistically win a title.

Now I do not want to say it would be impossible for Lebron to win a title in Cleveland, but that fact is it would have taken an absolutely superhuman effort like we have never seen in the NBA before. If Lebron lays an egg like Kobe did in game seven against the Celtics the Cavs lose by 30. Lebron willed that team to the NBA's best record, but once he started playing the best teams in the playoffs he simply did not have the help. Jordan would not have won it with that Cavs team, Kobe would not have won it, Russell would not have won it...that Cavs team simply was not championship material.

The Cavs should have done what Sam Presti has been doing with Durant in Oklahoma City. They are not overpaying for guys or taking a chance on guys. They built a solid nucleus around him and are waiting for it to develop. The Thunder had the Lakers on the brink this year and are only set to get better. Instead the Cavs took chances on washed up veterans and did not have any real plan for long term success (outside of Lebron). I cannot blame Lebron when he could go other places and have a chance to win.

There is another argument that this taints his legacy somehow, that Lebron could not carry a team on his own and win a title. To me this argument is completely idiotic. Everyone needed help. Jordan won his first three titles with Scottie Pippen (a top 5 NBA player at the time), Horace Grant (an all star caliber forward), BJ Armstrong who was an all star the year after Jordan left and several other quality role players like John Paxson and Will Purdue. Jordan won his second three titles with Scottie Pippen (again a top 5 NBA player), Dennis Rodman (an all star caliber forward and borderline hall of famer) and solid role players like Steve Kerr, Tony Kukoc, and Ron Harper. The point is Jordan had plenty of help.

Kobe Bryant has won his titles on teams that would have been among the best in their conference had Kobe never suited up for them. Bill Russell played for absolutely stacked Celtic teams. Lebron's Cavs teams were Lebron and a bunch of role players. There was no clear plan for long term success other than keeping Lebron in place to carry them and trying to fill in gaps. So Lebron did what any great player has had to do to win..he found help.

As constructed this Heat nucleus reminds me a lot of the Jordan Era Bulls nucleus. The 2/3 in Chicago which was Jordan(best player in the NBA)/ Pippen(a top five NBA player) is to me very similar to Wade (top 5 NBA player)/ James (best player in the NBA). The Bulls had Grant or Rodman depending on which run...all star caliber power forwards. The Heat have Bosh also an all star caliber forward. Bosh is a better scorer than Rodman/Grant, but not as good a rebounder or defender.
The key for the heat will be can they find the role players to compliment their core three. The Bulls were great about that. They found role players who complimented their stars very well. They found shooting from guys like Kerr/Paxson. They found a ball handler and rebounding guard like Ron Harper. They found big centers who could pass the ball and operate in the triangle. By finding the right role players they were able to win six titles.

If the Heat can get the right role players they can be a favorite to win titles for the next five years. Realistically I think they need a couple guards who can shoot and handle the ball and a couple big men who can defend and rebound. If they get that they will be very impossible to stop.

Lebron believes he can win in Miami which is a big reason he went, but to me it is even more basic than that. A few years ago I found a group of guys at the UC recreation center that I really liked playing pickup basketball with. We made it a point to go up there at the same time. When we played together we were very successful often holding the court for hours, we knew what each other would do, we shared the ball and played hard. It was fun playing with those guys. As much as I love playing basketball it was that much more fun when we'd get that group together. To me at it's most basic level Lebron is making a decision to play basketball for the next five years with the guys he really loves to play with most. As someone who understands how much more fun basketball can be when you find the right group of guys to run with this is a decision that makes sense. These guys love playing together and at its most basic level I think that was what this decision was about.

So congratulations Lebron James. I look forward to seeing you play basketball with Wade and Bosh. I hope Miami can put the right pieces in place to compliment your games, because if so this could be an amazing team to watch over the next five years. You are picking a team to play for over the next five years for 100 games or so a year... why not choose guys whom you know you will enjoy playing with. So there are plenty of haters out there who are going to rip on this decision, but in the end enjoying the guys you play with will more than make up for it.

An Open Letter to Mike Thomas

2010-03-23T08:48:00.001-07:00

Mike Thomas:

I have been a Cincinnati Bearcat my entire life. I grew up wearing Red and Black and attending as many Bearcat football and basketball games as possible. My father earned his PHD from the University of Cincinnati, taught night classes in Sociology and worked as an administrator in the College of Business. I started attending games with him at the age of 3, but really started remembering the games at 5.

Throughout my years as a Bearcat fan I was able to watch the Bearcats reel of 14 straight NCAA tournament bids. I got to see them win Conference title after Conference title. I was able to watch them make 1 final four, 3 elite eights and 4 sweet sixteens. During those years the University only accepted excellence. Mediocrity would simply not be tolerated... It was a standard I grew to appreciate from a University that clearly cared about its basketball program.

In the fall of 2005 the University fired the man largely responsible for the great success of the University of Cincinnati Bearcat basketball program. It was that success that was a huge component in getting UC into the Big East which has greatly benefited this University. It was a decision at the time I vehemently disagreed with, but one in which the administration clearly has a right to make.

Still there was a responsibility for the administration to show they were fully committed to the basketball program... that this decision was not going to mean basketball would be left to wallow in mediocrity. When you were brought in as athletic director you gave us an ambitious goal...one that we could be proud to be shooting for, to win a conference title in every sport within 5 years. In the spring of 2006 you hired Mick Cronin to hopefully continue the Bearcat basketball program's tradition of success. Cronin was an impressive young coach, whom Bearcat fans were very familiar with. He had been a top assistant for two big time coaches in Huggins and Pitino. He did not have much experience as a head coach, but in his brief time at Murray State he was successful (though to be fair that team has won 14 regular season OVC titles and been to 12 NCAA tournaments in the last 23 years under 6 different coaches... everyone wins at Murray State).

We all understood that results from Mick Cronin would not come immediately. The program only returned 2 scholarship players in 2006. Bearcat fans fully understood that this would be a painful season. In 2007 we hoped for better, but really were not expecting any excellence. Still with their win over South Florida on February 20 the Bearcats got their record to over .500 and were 8-5 in the Big East. All of a sudden the NIT was a real possibility and some of us were even dreaming of a crazy run to the NCAA tournament. In the end the Bearcats would lose their last 7 games ending the season on an awful note.

The hope was that year three would be different, that year three would be the season the Bearcats were right on the edge of being an NCAA tournament team. Once again their came a point when that was a real possibility. With their road win at Georgetown on February 7 the Bearcats were 16-8 and 7-5 in Big East play. They were 3 or 4 wins from an NCAA tournament birth. Everything was looking up for the Bearcat program. Then for a second straight year the Bearcats absolutely faded down the stretch. They went 1-6 their last 7 games, including losses to South Florida, Seton Hall and then the ultimate embarrassment losing to previously winless Depaul in the conference tournament. For a second straight season a year that had shown so much promise turned into abject failure when it mattered most and the Bearcats were not even playing in the NIT.

Starting year four the pieces were in place. The Bearcats brought back a four year starter at shooting guard who was poised to become one of the top scorers in Bearcat history. They returned one of the most talented big men in the country in Yancy Gates. They had one of the the top freshman in the country coming in to contribute and were finally going to get true point guard play from Cashmere Wright and Jaquan Parker. The Bearcats showed their talent early in season down in Maui when they beat what would end up being two 4 seeds in the NCAA tournament in Maryland and Vanderbilt. Now given the lack of practices before the NCAA season starts early in the season talent tends to win out because teams have not had the opportunity to get their identity in place. Our talent this season was evident from day 1.

This team should have been an NCAA tournament team. Not only should they have been an NCAA tournament team, but they should have been a higher seed in the NCAA a tournament. The talent was there, but throughout the season the Bearcats never established an identity, never developed a regular lineup with regular substitution patterns, never developed an offense that played to their strengths and did not show consistent effort. All of those factors led to a team that woefully underachieved...a team that had two high profile non-conference wins early and then did nothing to build no those the rest of the way (and they were given a ton of chances to do so).

The last three seasons the Bearcats have finished 10th, 10th and now 11th in the Big East Conference. The last three seasons the Bearcats have gone 8-10, 8-10 and now 7-11 in the Big East Conference. I am trying to figure out where the development is. Where is the improvement? This season the Bearcats blew several games by simple lack of execution; Inability to execute in bounds plays late in games, inability to execute offensive sets out of timeouts. They lost other games because their offense was content to launch threes instead of get their better players the ball in places where they can score. These are issues that do not exist on that level with a competent coach. Last night against Dayton was a great example of the Bearcats simply getting outworked by an A10 team that went .500 in their conference.

My point is it is clear right here and right now that Mick Cronin is not the answer for the University of Cincinnati basketball program (unless the question is how can we avoid making the NCAA tournament for as long as possible?). He has certainly improved the talent level immensely here at UC, but he has not shown an ability to develop that talent and win with that talent. Deonta Vaughn was the same player last night that he was when he stepped foot on the court four years ago. Yancy Gates continues to be passive and not demand the ball. Lance Stephenson should have been used a variety of different ways, not just for getting the ball on the perimeter and breaking down the defense off the drive. Mick has not shown at all that he can get the most out of his players.

Should Cronin continue to be the Bearcat basketball coach it will be very hard for me to believe the University is as committed to winning as they tried to convince us when they hired Cronin 4 years ago. I've watched nearly every game the last 4 seasons and I am trying to find the evidence of his ability to win at a high level. If you think it is there... share it with the fan base. Let us know the reason you believe, despite all the evidence...despite three straight years of finishing basically in the exact same spot (10, 10 and 11) in the Big East... despite going 5-11 against tournament teams this year (and 3-10 after Maui) that I should feel hope for the future. If you are 100% convinced that Mick is the answer than by all means stay with him.

If you are not, the time to change is now. We only lose two players off the roster (Vaughn and Toyloy). The Bearcats bring back Gates and Stephenson who are two of the most talented big men in the country. They return Parker and Wright who both showed flashes of being very good guards. They bring back Ibrihim Thomas who showed himself to be a more than capable big man. This is the kind of core that an up and coming coach would jump at a chance to move forward . It is the type of core that could attract a winning type of candidate.

Additional now is the ideal time for chance because the program will not be set back by the coaching change. Were we to make the change in a year where we had to replace a ton of talent we may be set back another year...another two years. This is a year we could make the kind of change and not have the setback. Our recruiting class this year is nothing incredibly impressive and the guys we are losing can be replaced. This year is as ideal a chance as we may ever get to bring someone in who can get this program to the next level.

I am thankful to Mick for coming in and giving his best effort to get the program off the mat. I am thankful for his increasing the talent level and at least getting us back to mediocrity. But after three straight seasons of mediocrity in the Big East and a lack of development of what is a clearly talented team, I think the evidence is in. The University cannot afford to wallow in mediocrity. This is a program that regularly drew 12,000+ a game for 15 years that is now failing to draw 9000 (despite playing in a much better conference). This is a program that is losing opportunities for exposure. There are still recruits who grew up watching UC as a successful program that they would want to be a part of, but that window is closing by the day. The longer we wait...the longer we sit in mediocrity, the harder it will be to win at the high level this University deserves.

For the sake of the University I grew up loving, for the sake of the University where I earned my degree and for the sake of all the alumni who care about this university it is time to make a change. It is time make the bold statement that the University of Cincinnati will not accept mediocrity... we are a big time program and we are once again ready to live up to that.

Thanks for your time,

Mark Raines, Class of 2007

NCAA Tournament Thoughts

2010-03-16T10:59:00.000-07:00

Well... this was easily my worst year in projecting the field (something I thought might happen as I evaluated teams this week). I do not think the selection committee did a great job this year. As I have always said to me the most important quality in an NCAA tournament team is a proven ability to beat other tournament teams. Cal, Utah State and UTEP all failed to prove they could that, while Illinois proved they could by beating 4 top 25 RPI teams, 3 of which were away from home. To me that is an NCAA tournament team. My other major issue was Florida getting in over Mississippi State team that beat them on a neutral floor a two days earlier, then beat Vandy, then took UK to OT and really lost on a bad bounce. Now I would have been fine with Mississippi State not getting in, but Florida getting in over them does not make any sense at all. Their resume's are essentially the same, but Mississippi State was better late and again beat them on a neutral floor.

I will say though that no one that missed really has anyone to blame but themselves. Mississippi State did not do enough throughout the year, Illinois had some bad losses, VT had an awful non-conference schedule. In the end I may disagree with the committee but we are not debating teams that would have a shot to win the whole thing... so I am good with how it is.

The biggest issue I had was Duke being treated like the number 1 overall seed. Duke was easily the weakest of the 1 seeds and did not have as good a resume as WVU. Duke was given the weakest 2 seed in their region. They were also given a 4 seed missing their best player. Duke does draw the toughest 8/9 winner (unless Texas suddenly starts playing to their ability), but other than that they were given a great draw.

WVU who had 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1 and was 7-4 on the road vs. Duke who was 5-5 ended being a 2 seed and was put into Kentucky's region making a final four run that much more difficult. Had they put WVU in Duke's region they'd be a favorite to make the final four. The good news for WVU is they may have gotten some favors at the bottom of the region being matched up with New Mexico as the three seed (a team they should beat if New Mexico were to get that far). It seems that the committee felt it was more important to give them the Buffalo/Syracuse locations than to match them with the weakest 1 seed.

Another team I think got jobbed was Ohio State. Why did Ohio State get put in the bracket of the top 1 seed? I guess it is as simple as keeping OSU in St Louis for the the regional finals instead of sending them to Houston...but if you are Ohio State would you rather be in St Louis in a Region with Kansas and Georgetown (probably the best 1 and 3 seeds respectively) or be in Houston with Duke and Baylor as your chief rivals. On top of that the Oklahoma State v Georgia Tech winner is going to be an absolutely rough second round match-up for the Buckeyes. To me they have far and away the toughest path of any of the high seeds to the final four.

Now lets take a look at the first round match-ups I am most looking forward to:

Thursday 12:20, 7 BYU vs. 10 Florida- 7/10 games always tend to be close. I really like this BYU team. Florida has struggled a bunch down the stretch. I do not think they should have made the tournament, that being said they could easily win this game.

Thursday 12:25, 6 Notre Dame vs. 11 Old Dominion- Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams in the country to end the season. Old Dominion won a very competitive Colonial Athletic Association. Four years ago George Mason made an historic final four run from a similar position. Obviously that is a huge unlikelihood, but a Sweet 16 run would not be surprising at all.

Thursday 2:30, 4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State- Really all the 13/4 games have a certain level of intrigue to them this year. I think this is one of the better sets of 13 seeds I can remember in the tournament and the four seeds they have been matched with are not really teams that seem to blow others out. Murray State was absolutely dominant in the Ohio Valley this year (big surprise I know they've been doing it for over 2 decades). Vanderbilt had a great year. They are well coached and very skilled, but I think Murray States quickness could give them trouble. It should be a very interesting matchup and maybe the first big upset of the tournament.

Thursday 4:45, 5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP- I did not pick a single 5/12 upset this year...which will probably prove to be foolish as they happen like clockwork. I think Butler is too good a team for UTEP, but I guess we will see. Anyways the 5/12 games are always worth watching.

Thursday 7:20, 6 Marquette vs. 11 Washington- Marquette is another example of how much respect the Big East got this year. I think Marquette is probably a bit over-seeded. They really did overachieve with the roster they have in place. I think they are better than Washington, but Washington has been hot. I think the winner of this game will likely beat New Mexico and find their way to the sweet 16.

Thursday 7:25, 3 Georgetown vs. 14 Ohio- I think this will probably be a blowout, Georgetown is incredibly dangerous in this tournament. That being said, always look forward to watching the Bobcats.

Thursday 9:45, 6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State- San Diego State is red hot moving into the tournament. I like their chances against Tennessee, but in the end I'm not betting against Bruce Pearl.

Friday 12:25, 6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota- I personally think Xavier is much better than Minnesota. However, I also think Tubby Smith is a very good game to game coach and he will have them ready. I thought Xavier got a nice draw for getting back to the sweet 16, but they have to get the first one.

Friday 12:30, 5 Temple vs. 12 Cornell- The Atlantic 10 is very much featured in the 12:30 games. I thought Temple was under-seeded in the tournament this year. I know Cornell is a trendy pick here but I think Temple is a much more athletic and a generally better team. I personally like the Owls to make the sweet 16.

Friday 2:30, 4 Purdue vs. 13. Siena- It is the second of the very intriguing 4/13 match-ups in this year's tournament. Purdue has looked really bad in their two games against tournament competition without Robby Hummel. They have the talent to win without him, but will they have it together by then? Siena brought back four starters from the team that upset Ohio State last year. They are very good and tournament tested. This will be a really good game.

Friday 4:45, 5 Texas A&M vs. 12. Utah State- I think this is the most likely of the 12/5 upsets. Utah State had been very hot before the tournament. Texas A&M is better and should win, but we have seen bigger upsets in 12/5 games before.

Friday 7:15, 7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Georgia Tech- These are two very talented teams who will give Ohio State a hell of a time in the second round. I will be very anxious to see who wins.

Friday 7:20- 5 Michigan State vs. 12 New Mexico State- I thought New Mexico State was probably seeded to high and it is dumb to bet against Tom Izzo in the Big Dance, but Michigan State has looked very vulnerable and we all know about 5/12.
Friday 9:40- 4 Maryland vs. 13 Houston- The last of the 4/13 match-ups I am very interested in. Houston impressed me in the Conference USA title. Tom Penders I a good coach. Maryland has not been great away from home this year. I think Maryland wins, but it should be a good game.

Friday 9:45- 8 Cal vs. 9 Louisville- The winner of this game is going to be a real threat to Duke. Just from that level of interest I will be paying attention.

Additional Thoughts on the Tournament:

15/16 team that is most likely to keep the game close- Winthrop (they are in the play in game, but screw it I went to school their for a year I'm going with them)

Toughest Draw for a 1-4 seed- Ohio State

Potential Second Round Games to Look Forward to-
Duke vs. UofL/Cal winner
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State/Georgia Tech winner
Georgetown vs. Tennessee

12 seed or lower that could make the sweet 16- Murray State

Will the Big East get two in the final four again? Yes, out of Syracuse, WVU, Georgetown and Villanova two will find their way to the final four.

Outsider most likely to crash the final four- Baylor (and if you do not consider them an outside because they are from a power conference... Temple)

Biggest X factor in the tournament- The health of Arinze Onuaku.

Elite Eight

Kansas
Georgetown
Syracuse
Kansas State
UK
West Virginia
Texas A& M
Baylor

Final Four

Kansas
Syracuse
West Virginia
Baylor

Biggest Game
Kansas vs. Syracuse (the winner will be Champion)

Championship Game
Syracuse over West Virginia (I'm assuming Onauku will be good to go...if not...well I'll be wrong)

Final Bracket Selection Sunday

2010-03-14T10:11:00.000-07:00

It's time to take a look at my final bracket which unfortunately I have to put out before all the games have been played. As of right now my four 1 seeds are (in this order):

Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
WVU

The top three will stay exactly as is no matter what happens today. WVU will certainly be the 4th 1 seed if Duke loses, but I think they should be if Duke wins. WVU has 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1. WVU is 7-4 in true road games, Duke is 5-5. Their numbers against the top 50 are similar but again WVU's games against the top 50 came against better teams than Duke's. To me WVU clearly has the strong resume.

My number 2 seeds are as follows (in this order):

Duke
Ohio State
Kansas State
Villanova

There is a big dropoff between Kansas State and Villanova. There are a bunch of teams with very similar resumes Villanova that could very well get the last 2 seed instead. The forth 2 seed will be a difficult decision (Pitt would be a likely candidate to take their spot).

I will say this has been a very difficult year to find tournament caliber at large teams. I have Minnesota and Illinois in where I have seen many of them either on the edge or out. These teams actually have quality wins over tournament teams...something really lacking from the resumes of UTEP, Cal, Mississippi State and Utah State... and something Florida, VT, and Seton Hall do not have to that level. Judging by who they beat I don't really understand how there is any question that Illinois and Minnesota should be in over all of those teams. (but if I was shown to be wrong...well I wouldn't be shocked)

So that being said I have three spots open... and they will come down to these eight teams:

Cal
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Utah State
Seton Hall
Florida
William and Mary
UTEP

Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long. Their best wins are over Memphis and UAB... to me that is not an NCAA tournament team. I would not be surprised if I am wrong. I would not be surprised if they got in, but to me they have not demonstrated they are an NCAA team.

I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams. William and Mary has true road wins over Wake Forest and Minnesota (in their limited opportunities). That is strong. In a normal year they would not stand a chance. I think it would be cool if they were rewarded over mediocre teams like Cal and Mississippi State. Cal has 1 win over a tournament team this year. Mississippi State has not been much better.

I feel like I could be wrong on any of my last three and still be fine with the job the committee did. If they do not put Minnesota or Illinois in the tournament I think they will be going against their stated criteria of playing and beating tournament teams. That's why I am fairly confident those teams will get in.

Anyways..this is the least sure I have ever been when predicting the bracket and it is definitely because of the relative weakness at the end of the bracket.

A few procedural things before I show my final bracket. I had to swap Texas and Florida State on the S curve so that Texas could not draw Kansas in the second round and so that Florida State would not play Clemson in round 1. I swapped Texas A&M and Wake Forest to avoid multiple bracket issues. In my bracket today ND was the last 9 seed and Georgia Tech was the top 10 seed. I swapped them to avoid ND getting WVU in the second round and Georgia Tech drawing Duke in round 2. Lastly I swapped Pitt and New Mexico to avoid a Pitt/Villanova sweet 16 match-up. This is not a mandatory change by bracketing rules, but the committee does its best to avoid having high seeds from the same conference on the same side of a region. It was an easy switch so I made it.

That being said here is my final bracket (again Conference Champions in BOLD):

Midwest Regional (St Louis)

1. Kansas
16. Winthrop

8. Marquette
9. Florida State

4. Purdue
13. Houston

5. Tennessee
12. Murray State

2. Villanova
15. North Texas

7. Gonzaga
10. Illinois

3. New Mexico
14. Montana

6. Richmond
11. Illinois

West Regional (Salt Lake City)

1. West Virginia
16. Vermont

8. UNLV
9. Georgia Tech

4. Temple
13. Ohio

5. Michigan State
12. Virginia Tech

2. Duke
15. East Tennessee State

7. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame

3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland

6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion

South Regional (Houston)

1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Play in Game)

8. Missouri
9. St Mary's

4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State

5. BYU
12. Mississippi State

2. Ohio State
15. UCSB

7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State

3. Georgetown
14. Wofford

6. Maryland
11. Cal

East Regional (Syracuse)

1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris

8. Clemson
9. Texas

4. Butler
13. Siena

5. Xavier
12. Cornell

2. Kansas State
15. Morgan State

7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville

3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State

6. Wisconsin
11. Washington

Championship Saturday 2:30 Bracket

2010-03-13T11:24:00.000-08:00

As we look at my second bracket things are really starting to take shape. The list of teams I had on the bubble has been dramatically reduced. I have moved Memphis, UAB, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Dayton and St Louis to the out list...none of those teams are going to be making the NCAA tournament. I have added Illinois, Georgia Tech and San Diego State to LOCK status. I think they are in the NCAA tournament. Also...

Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:

Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall

With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.

I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.

Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.

A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.

Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:

Midwest Regional (St Louis)

1. Kansas
16. Winthrop

8. Marquette
9. Florida State

4. Butler
13. Murray State

5. Georgetown
12. Utah State

2. Villanova
15. North Texas

7. Richmond
10. Illinois

3. Purdue
14. Montana

6. Gonzaga
11. Cal

West Regional (Salt Lake City)

1. Duke
16. Vermont

8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame

4. Temple
13. Akron

5. Michigan State
12. Florida

2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State

7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech

3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland

6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion

South Regional (Houston)

1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)

8. Missouri
9. St Mary's

4. Baylor
13. Siena

5. BYU
12. Washington

2. Kansas State
15. UCSB

7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State

3. New Mexico
14. Wofford

6. Maryland
11. Minnesota

East Regional (Syracuse)

1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris

8. Clemson
9. Texas

4. Tennessee
13. Houston

5. Xavier
12. Cornell

2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State

7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville

3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State

6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech

Bearcatmark's First Mock Bracket

2010-03-11T08:46:00.000-08:00

For the purpose of this bracket I have assumed the regular season Conference Champion is going to win every conference that has not been decided. Now this is obviously not likely to be the case, but it gives me UTEP and Cal as automatic birth teams and not last four in bubble status... If those teams don't win their conference they currently sit just above Minnesota and Memphis who are my last two teams in.

With their win over Seton Hall yesterday I have moved Notre Dame to Lock Status. I made a few adjustments to avoid same conference teams playing in the first two rounds. I switched Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, Illinois and San Diego State,Virginia Tech and St Mary's, Clemson and UNLV, Texas and Richmond, as well as Minnesota and Memphis (yes I had to do a ton of procedure bumping... i hope my final brackets don't come out like this.)

My Last Four In Are:

UTEP
Cal
Minnesota
Memphis

My First Four Out Are

Seton Hall (they are going to have to get really lucky to get in... as in everyone behind them falters and teams like Memphis/Minnesota lose early in their conference tournaments)
Arizona State
Washington
Ole Miss
(I actually have Utah State above Ole Miss, but I have them with an Automatic Birth at this point. Were they to lose in the conference finals they'd probably stand a decent shot at a bid)

My other 6 teams with a shot still go in this order at this time:

Cincinnati (I am getting more and more confident that a win tonight gets them on the edge...lets start rooting for everyone above to falter early in their conference tournaments)
St Louis
Dayton
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
UAB

All teams that have clinched their conference title are in bold.

Midwest Regional (St Louis)

1. Kansas
16. Wintrhop

8. Clemson
9. Marquette

4. BYU
13. Utah State

5. Butler
12. Cornell

2. Villanova
15. North Texas

7. Texas
10. Florida

3. Purdue
14. Montana

6. Georgetown
11. San Diego State

West Regional (Salt Lake City)

1. Duke
16. Boston U

8. Northern Iowa
9. St Mary's

4. Temple
13. Kent State

5. Michigan State
12. Old Dominion

2. Ohio State
15. East Tennessee State

7. Wake Forest
10. Louisivlle

3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland

6. Maryland
11. Cal

South Regional (Houston)

1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)

8. UNLV
9. Florida State

4. Tennessee
13. Siena

5. Baylor
12. Minnesota

2. Kansas State
15. UCSB

7. Richmond
10. Notre Dame

3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State

6. Gonzaga
11. Illinois

East Regional (Syracuse)

1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris

8. Missouri
9. Virginia Tech

4. Wisconsin
13. Murray State

5. Xavier
12. Memphis

2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State

7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech

3. New Mexico
14. Wofford

6. Oklahoma State
11. UTEP

Championship Week Bubble Look

2010-03-10T11:26:00.000-08:00

Time to take my second major look at the bubble. St Mary's eliminated all doubt with their route of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament finals. They now have an automatic birth and have lowered the number of bubble spots by one. In good news for bubble teams Butler and Northern Iowa won their conference tournaments. Those teams were getting in to the big dance either way and a loss would have lowered the spots for potential bubble teams. Old Dominion and Cornell also earned automatic bids...neither were probably serious bubble teams, but they are no longer in any bubble discussion.

From last week I have moved 6 teams from on the bubble to in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens from here forward. I have also eliminated four teams from bubble discussion (what you will notice about all those teams is their seasons are over and they have no way to add to their resume). I've added some teams to the bubble discussion that I missed on my first quick look through last week. Now that I have had more time to look things over and evaluate this is a far better look.

As of right now my cutoff is Minnesota (of course that assumes UTEP wins CUSA and Cal wins the Pac Ten, Xavier/Temple/Richmond win the A10, and New Mexico/UNLV/BYU win the Mountain West...otherwise the bubble certainly shrinks.

Also it is important to note that some of the teams I have eliminated may currently have and may finish with better resume's than some of the teams I have in the discussion and on the bubble. The reason teams that may be below them are still on the bubble is that those teams on the bubble have opportunities to improve their resume. I may put out my first bracket today, but I'll probably wait until later in the week.

Teams that have moved from bubble to in:

Clemson- Clemson has played themselves into tournament lock status. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 vs. RPI 26-50. They have beaten Butler and Maryland, swept Florida State and taken down GT. All that plus finishing over .500 in the ACC...they are in.

UNLV- The Rebels will be in the NCAA tournament. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. With a stronger bubble they may be close to the edge, but not this year. They will be dancing.

Louisville- The second win over Syracuse was just what the doctor ordered to get Louisville into Lock Status. At this point they are just playing for seed (and given the nature of the Big East tournament depending on how they do there is a huge range of where they could be seeded). The Cardinals are now 2-5 against the RPI top 25, but both of those wins came against number 1 seed lock Syracuse. Now Louisville's issue is those two victories are their only top 50 wins...and in another year that could be a huge issue...but at this point... with them getting 11 wins in the number 1 RPI conference I cannot see the Cardinals getting left out.

Marquette- I think the Golden Eagles moved to lock status with their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette finished Big East play with 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 1-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville. Marquette has two unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.

Florida State- By beating Miami and Wake Forest last week Florida State has played their way into the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 10-6. They have four top 50 victories...sweeping bubble team Georgia Tech and getting wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.

Virginia Tech- I hate the fact that I am saying this but Virginia Tech is a lock at this point. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. Still the Hokies will get in (and with the weakness of the bubble probably should get in), because they went 10-6 in ACC play. And though the Hokies are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 they are 3-1 against RPI 26-50 beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and on the road against fellow bubble team GT.

The Bubble As of Noon- Wednesday

Notre Dame- Sweeping UCONN and Marquette last week probably put the Fighting Irish in the dance. Notre Dame finished the regular season by winning four straight games three of which were against teams that will be dancing in Marquette, Pitt, and Georgetown. Notre Dame also has a great win over West Virginia. Their 3-2 record against the RPI top 25 is going to look really good on selection Sunday.

Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech hurt themselves by not getting to .500 in ACC play, but despite that they could still find themselves in the field. To their credit the Yellow Jackets have 4 top 50 wins which include a win over possible #1 seed Duke, and wins over NCAA tournament teams Siena, Clemson and Wake Forest. Their opening round game against fading North Carolina probably is a must win game. They can secure a win by beating Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, but even a close loss will likely be good enough.

Florida- Florida could have moved to lock status with a win over Kentucky (or even Vandy) last week. As it is they are in relatively good shape simply because of the other teams behind them not having much to celebrate. To date Florida is only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). Looking at the SEC tournament Florida at the very least needs to make the SEC semi finals. Making the semis will keep them in the discussion...if they can manage to make the finals they'll be dancing for sure.

Illinois- Illinois could end up giving the committee headaches this Sunday. They sit at 75 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-4 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Very few teams manage to get 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Illinois draws Wisconsin one more time in their first Big Ten tournament game... a win will get the Illini in the field. A loss and they will be teetering on the edge.

SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. They won the games they needed to last week to keep themselves in position. They likely will need two wins in the Conference tournament to get in...They have a first round match-up with Colorado State which they cannot afford to lose and then get another shot at New Mexico. A win over New Mexico should get them in the field.

UTEP- One of three Conference USA teams hoping to find a way in the tournament. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having won the outright conference championship. They are only 3-1 against the RPI top 50 sweeping UAB and beating Memphis. They have run off 14 straight wins which will really help them. I think at this point UTEP will probably be dancing so long as they make the finals of the CUSA tournament... but it strikes me that their only big wins are over teams that could very likely not be dancing.

Seton Hall- In getting to .500 in conference play Seton Hall did exactly what they needed to last week. They held on for a big win against Providence last night and now may have a chance to play their way into the field against Notre Dame. A win puts Seton Hall firmly on the bubble (I don't think they can get in with a loss). If they can manage to follow that up with a victory over Pitt they will probably be dancing. Seton Hall is only 3-8 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. Of their losses 7 came against teams in the RPI top 15.

Cal- For the record Cal still has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 20 which would make them the highest RPI team ever left out if they do not make it(Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I do not think they deserve it Their resume simply does not hold up. The PAC Ten SHOULD be a one bid league and I really hope the selection committee does their job in scrutinizing it. If teams from the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, Mountain West...etc had these resume's they would not be in the discussion. They are ahead of Washington and Arizona State (who both have two wins over the RPI top 50) because they finished alone in first place.

Minnesota- And to think...last week I did not think there was as shot Minnesota would be dancing. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and those are three very high quality wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). The thrashing they received from Michigan looks bad, but they managed to recover and get to .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Penn State is a must...then they'll have a shot to really impress by beating Michigan State.

Memphis- They have two top 50 wins right now... both against a UAB team that will almost assuredly not be dancing without winning the CUSA tournament. Could Memphis getting a third win over UAB and making the finals of the Conference USA tournament be enough? I personally doubt it, but if none of the other bubble teams step up and play their way in it could be a possibility.

Ole Miss- Early season wins continue to keep the Rebels in the discussion, but they have to do something in the SEC tournament. The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They did get to 9-7 in the SEC to keep their at-large hopes alive. They have a first round bye and then must win their first conference tournament game. A win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament could earn them a bid... an additional win over Kentucky will put them firmly in.

St Louis- St Louis managed to get a split in the Temple/Dayton stretch last week to keep their slim hopes alive. They are only 83 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton(twice), and Rhode Island, St Louis is 4-3 against the RPI top 50. They finished alone in 4th in a particularly strong A10 going 11-5. They still may need to win the conference tournament to go dancing, but it's possible getting two more top 50 wins by beating Rhode Island and Temple in their first two tournament games could earn them an at large bid.

Arizona State- Arizona State won 6 of their last 7 if the very weak PAC Ten. Arizona State only has 1 top 50 win (beating SD State). They have another win over a Washington team that currently is 51 in the RPI. If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.

Washington- Finished the season by winning 4 straight to keep their hopes alive. They have two top 50 RPI wins both at home against Texas A&M and Cal... If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.

Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU and a solid win over Wichita State to get them to 2-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). That may not be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.

Dayton- Dayton seemingly dealt themselves a deathblow last week losing to Richmond and Saint Louis to fall to .500 in the A10. Dayton is 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Old Dominion. It is going to take a pretty exceptional Atlantic Ten tournament to get the committee's attention. They got the win they needed to open the A10 tournament and now likely must beat Xavier and Richmond to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid.

Mississippi State- At 1-4 against the RPI top 50 Mississippi State probably is a fringe candidate at best at this point. Their sweep of Ole Miss does not carry much weight at this point. Their best victory was early in the season over Old Dominion. Mississippi State is still on the board because wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to reach the SEC finals would likely be enough to earn them a bid. They have not really done anything to show that is possible, but the point is their slims hopes are still alive (and remember they ended up winning the conference tournament last year to force their way in).

Rhode Island- Rhode Isalnd, like Dayton...seemingly played their way out last week. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50 (0-4 against the top 25) beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. The loss to Umass on Saturday was their second bad loss (also have a loss to St Bonaventure). Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. Rhode Island gets St Louis in a do or die game in the A10 quarterfinals and then must find a way to beat Temple to have a shot at an at-large bid.

UAB- The loss to UTEP all but eliminated UAB from an at-large bid. They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-5 against the RPI top 50. I don't know that beating Memphis and earning a trip to the Conference USA finals would even be enough at this point. They probably need to win the conference tournament.

Cincinnati- Getting smacked around by Georgetown for all purposes eliminated Cincinnati from the discussion, but I leave them here because the Big East tournament does offer a unique opportunity for a run. The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats survived against Rutgers to advance in the tournament. Advancing to the finals will be necessary for the Bearcats to earn a bid... a trip to the finals would likely give the Bearcats victories over Louisville, WVU and Pitt...all of a sudden that would be a pretty interesting resume. (Hey a man can dream)

Eliminated From Consideration

UCONN- Wow do things change in a week. UCONN had won 4 in a row and then suffered a close lose to Louisville. The came into last week feeling reasonably good all things considered. Three stink bombs later (losses to ND, South Florida, and St Johns) and UCONN has absolutely no shot to be a tournament team.

South Florida- The managed to get to .500 in Big East play and have 3 top 50 wins to their credit (going 3-4 against the RPI top 50) beating Pitt and Kent State at home...the Georgetown on the road. However, they needed to beat Georgetown today and fell short. A nice year for South Florida, but ultimately they will not be dancing.

Wichita State- A trip to the finals of the Conference Tournament finals of the Missouri Valley just is not going to be enough for Greg Marshall's kids. They did manage to go 9-5 against the RPI top 100, but only 1 of those wins was against the RPI top 50 (beating conference champion Northern Iowa in the Regularl season). A good season, but ultimately not enough.

Charlotte- They once sat in great shape, but just closed the season losing 7 of 8 games including a first round A10 loss to Umass. Charlotte is not going to be dancing.

Ranking the Bubble Part 1

2010-03-03T10:48:00.001-08:00

Every year at this time I start to put together my NCAA tournament projections. Now I'm not going to mess with an actual bracket until some time during championship week, but for now I have ranked the teams I see as on the bubble. A few reminders there is a ton that will change over the next few weeks. A team like Cal, or St Mary's, or Old Dominion has no chance to improve its resume without winning their conference tournaments. Teams like UCONN, ND, St Louis (because of the strength of the A10 this year), Dayton, Charlotte, Ole Miss... all can improve their resume's. My rankings right now are just projections as of this time. A team like Charlotte can play their way in with some big wins down the stretch...a team like St Mary's needs help (unless they win the conference tournament).

The Cutoff for bubble teams right now is at SD State...but that could easily change if say Gonzaga does not win the West Coast Conference tournament, Butler does not win the Horizon League, or Northern Iowa does not win the Missouri Valley. That would mean less spots for those bubble teams.

Alright here it is:

Clemson- 2-4 against the RPI top 25, 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They have a top 30 RPI and are tied for third in the ACC. Their best wins are over Butler and Maryland. They've also swept fellow bubble team Florida State. They split with fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but should be above them in the pecking order at this point.

Marquette- With their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette now has 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 2-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville and UCONN. Marquette has to unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.

Georgia Tech- With their loss to Clemson, Georgia Tech is now under .500 in the ACC. They are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-4 against RPI 26-50. They have a great win over Duke...their other big wins are Wake Forest, Clemson and Siena. Despite a split with Clemson they are likely below them in the pecking order.

UNLV- The Rebels are in pretty good position to earn an at large bid. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. If UNLV wins their season finale against a 7-19 Wyoming squad I think they will probably be dancing.

Louisville- Finishing over .500 in the Big East may be enough to get them in the tournament but they shouldn't be too comfortable at this point. The Cardinals are only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (a great road win over Syracuse). They are 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They swept UCONN, and beat Cincinnati and ND. Getting smacked by Marquette did not help their tournament chances. Louisville could really use another win over Syracuse on Saturday...or a couple wins in the Big East tournament if they want to avoid sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.

Florida State- They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 and are 2-4 against RPI 26-50 (though they beat Marquette who sits just outside the top 50 and is another bubble team). Both of their top 50 victories were over bubble team Georgia Tech which is a plus, but Georgia Tech probably has a stronger overall body of work. Florida State was swept by fellow bubble team Clemson.

Illinois- They sit at 73 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-3 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Getting the sweep of Wisconsin Saturday would put Illinois in great position to earn a bid, otherwise they have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.

Florida- The recipe for them getting in is pretty simple...beat Kentucky To date Florida is 2-6 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). They missed their chance last night against Vanderbilt and now really need that upset over Kentucky. If they can manage to get that 3rd victory over RPI top 25 teams this week I think they'll be a tournament team (baring an awful SEC tournament performance). If they don't they'll need to be very impressive in the SEC tournament...semis at least...maybe a trip to the title game.

UCONN- This is another team that will be a real headache for the selection committee. If they can somehow sweep road games this week against ND and South Florida to get to .500 in the league they will probably be a tournament lock. UCONN really does have some strong wins. They are 3-5 against the RPI top 25 but 0-3 against RPI 26-50. They were swept by fellow bubble team Louisville and swept by fringe bubble team Cincinnati. They have two bad losses to Providence and Michigan. Still wins over Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas are probably a better group of wins than any other bubble teams. The committee likes to reward teams for winning big games, but if UCONN does not get to .500 in the Big East they are going to really be on the bubble come selection Sunday.

Notre Dame- Their RPI is only 68 which does not bode well for them, but they have looked more and more like a tournament team. Last week they beat Pitt and Georgetown to keep them on the bubble. Notre Dame is now a very strong 3-2 against the RPI top 25. If they can get a split with Marquette and UCONN this week Notre Dame will be firmly on the bubble. If they can sweep they'll probably be on the good side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech- They will be a very interesting call for the committee. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. The Hokies only have two RPI top 50 wins both of which were at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. They are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. VT may be an NCAA caliber team, but there really is not much on their resume to judge them by. The committee tends to frown on this so I think they'll really need to do something in the ACC tournament to earn a spot.

Dayton- What a hot and cold team they have been all year. Dayton is 1-5 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Ole Dominion. If Dayton can win both games this week they'll add another top 50 win as they get Richmond this week. Beating Richmond would put Dayton in pretty good position, especially if they make a nice run in the A10 tournament. Dayton would not be in today, but because of the relative strength of the A10 and who is on their schedule they have a chance to play themselves in.

SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. Last season I had them as my first team out...so clearly I think they just missed the big dance. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. SD State cannot afford to lose either of their last two games and probably needs to beat BYU or New Mexico in the conference tournament to earn a bid.

Seton Hall- Seton Hall is only 3-9 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. With their only games remaining being against Rutgers and Providence they could easily win those to get to .500 in the conference. Still Seton Would likely need to reach the semis of the Big East tournament to go dancing.

Mississippi State- Mississippi State is going to once again win the SEC west. They also swept fellow bubble team Ole Miss (though their overall resume probably is not as good). They are 1-4 in RPI top 50 games with their only RPI top 50 win came against Old Dominion early in the season. Mississippi State likely needs to make the finals of the conference tournament as well to earn a bid.

St Mary's- They are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (beating SD State and Utah State). With a trip to the conference finals and not too many upsets in conference tournaments they may have an outside shot at a bid, but in the end 2 RPI top 50 wins may not be enough.

Cal- I would say this is the only team that has a shot at an At-Large bid in the PAC Ten and even their resume is not particularly strong. Cal has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 21 so if they were left out they would be tied for the highest ranked RPI team ever to be left out (Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I am really not sure they deserve it. In fact I will not be giving them an at large bid in any projections I do. Their resume simply does not hold up. So yes...the PAC Ten should be a one bid league.

St Louis- They are only 86 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island, St Louis is 3-2 against the RPI top 50. They get Temple and Dayton this week. If they can sweep those games and get to 5-2 against the RPI top 50 ( and 12-4 in a particularly strong A10) they will be right there.

Ole Miss- The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They need to get to 9-7 in the SEC (which they should) and then probably reach the finals of the SEC tournament.

Minnesota- They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). Still getting drilled by Michigan probably eliminated them from at large consideration unless they can make a big run in the Big Ten tournament.

Charlotte- Another hot and cold team that seems to have fizzled out of late. Charlotte is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Louisville, Richmond and Temple (Richmond and Louisville were both true road games). Getting drilled by fellow bubble team Dayton will not help. Nor will their recent loss to George Washington. Charlotte has two games this week against top 50 RPI teams (Rhode Island and Richmond). If they could somehow sweep those games all of a sudden they become a very viable bubble team...without those and they'll likely be staying home.

Cincinnati- The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 4-9 against the RPI top 50 (the 2 other victories being their sweep of UCONN). Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats need to beat Georgetown on Saturday, but baring a run to the finals of the Big East tournament it looks like they will be once again watching the NCAA tournament not participating in it.

Rhode Island- Rhode Island is likely going to be on the outside looking in (like it appears many of these A10 bubble teams will be). They are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. They'll need to win out and then get a victory over a Temple or Xavier in the conference tournament to be in the discussion.
UTEP- One of two Conference USA teams with a decent at-large candidacy. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having clinched the outright conference championship. They are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50, that victory being over UAB. They get UAB again this week and probably need a win to be in the at large discussion. They also probably cannot lose to anyone but UAB or Memphis in the conference tournament if they want an at large bid.

UAB- They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-2 against the RPI top 50. If they beat UTEP this week then lose to them in the finals maybe they'll be in the discussion, but even then I am not sure.

Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU, but they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). I doubt 1-1 will be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.

Old Dominion- They are 1-1 against the RPI top 25 and 0-3 against RPI 26-50. The win over Georgetown is impressive, but probably not impressive enough to earn an at large bid.

Cornell- They are not getting an at-large bid, but it won't matter because they are going to win the Ivy League.

UC's Path to an NCAA Bid

2010-02-06T18:45:00.000-08:00

February is here and for a second straight season it is time to take a look at what the Bearcats must do to make the NCAA tournament. Like many of my fellow Bearcat fans I have felt the pain and frustration at what has been by in large a very up and down year. The Bearcats played great in Maui (minus the foul shooting that cost them the Gonzaga) beating Vandy and Maryland then turned around and lost to Xavier and were smacked by UAB. They beat UCONN, but then blew a late lead against St Johns. They took down Notre Dame at home and were smacked by them on the road. UC blew double digit leads against Louisville and Seton Hall but despite that is still .500 in the conference with eight games left. It seems at times this team is there, they get it and then at times they do not.

The frustration hits on multiple levels because we are in what many fans are hoping will not be a fifth straight season without an NCAA tournament bid. After the string of 14 straight seasons making the tournament this level of mediocrity would have been unfathomable. The frustration hits because we have watched the last two seasons when the Bearcats have been in position to make a run only to fade down the stretch. We are fans...we see the negative, we remember how losing has felt and it all adds up.

Despite our worst fears of fading again...of not doing what we need to make the tournament this team will still have every opportunity to get there with a few big wins down the stretch. As of this very moment the Bearcats would be firmly on the bubble selection Sunday. I think it is pointless to try to do a projection now with so much of the season left, but I think it is fair to say the Bearcats would be compared to a number of teams sitting right on the fence (Louisville, North Carolina, Maryland, Ole Miss to name a few).

The selection committee has been pretty consistent with what makes a tournament team. They want you to play quality teams, to beat quality teams, and to prove you can win away from home. Those are the most important qualities in an NCAA tournament team... the other huge area they look at is did that team avoid bad losses. I would say avoiding bad losses is less important than earning quality victories. Maryland, for example, got in last year with several very bad losses on the strength of wins over highly seeded teams Wake Forest, Michigan State and North Carolina (hell UNC and Michigan State ended up playing for that national title...those were big wins).

The NCAA really does not look at conference affiliation in terms of number of teams per conference and instead focuses on each individual team and how they compare to everyone else. What is nice for UC is they do have some quality wins (3 top 50 RPI wins, 1 of which is a win over RPI #12 Vandy). And their worst loss of the season is to St Johns, whose RPI sits at 84. In terms of selection committee criteria that is far from a bad loss. As it stands right now the Bearcats are 3-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-8 against the RPI top 100. Broken down further they are 1-2 against the RPI top 25 teams, 2-3 against teams ranked between 26-50 and 3-3 against teams ranked 51-100. It also big for the Bearcats that 2 of their 3 top 50 RPI wins were neutral site wins. Judging by those numbers the Bearcats have certainly showed themselves capable of competing against teams that will be in the NCAA field.

More importantly the Bearcats will get many more chances to pad their resume down the stretch. The Bearcats have 8 games remaining on their 2009-2010 regular season schedule. Seven of those 8 games will be against teams ranked in the RPI top 65 (Depaul being the only team not in the RPI top 100). This includes 4 RPI top 8 teams, 3 of which the Bearcats will play in a brutal three game stretch to end the regular season. To really help their case the Bearcats are going to need at least one victory against those RPI top 8 teams (#2 Syracuse, #3 Villanova, #5 WVU, #8 Georgetown). If they can get that and go 4-0 in the other games I think the Bearcats will be a win in the Big East tournament from clinching a bid.

To be in position to make the tournament I think 4-4 down the stretch is a must and they'll likely need to go 5-3 (if they make a deep run in the Big East tournament that can change things slightly), I think they can have a bid locked up if they go 5-3 and happen to beat 2 of those RPI top 8 teams. I believe anything better than 5-3 down the stretch would make them a lock for the tournament.

So if the Bearcats go 5-3 down the stretch their resume would look something like this:

19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
2-5 vs. RPI top 25
3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100

That is a fairly strong resume for a bubble team. Very few bubble teams are going to have 5 top 50 wins, some of which are away from home. UC will also not have a bad loss out of those games (unless they somehow lose to Depaul). They will have finished 7-5 down the stretch and gone 10-8 in the RPI number 1 conference. Not even looking at the field I think it would be possible for a Bearcat team to get in with that resume, but I would not feel safe unless they were able to get a win in the Big East tournament.

Now lets say they go 5-3 but get two of those wins against those Big East RPI top 8 teams. Now their resume looks like this:

19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
3-4 vs. RPI top 25
2-5, or 3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 or 6-8vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100

There really is not a huge difference their, but a team that has 3 RPI top 25 wins (two of which would likely be RPI top 10 wins) would be extremely appealing to the NCAA committee. The record vs. the RPI top 50 would largely depend on where their wins and losses were...their record vs. the RPI top 100 likely would not change. The difference is not huge, but I think it makes a difference. A 10-8 team in the #1 RPI conference, with 5 or 6 top 50 wins including two top 10 wins is going to be an NCAA tournament team. I am very confident in that.

For comparison's sake lets look at Arizona last season who was widely considered the most controversial team to make the tournament.

19-12 overall
9-9 Pac Ten
4-4 vs. RPI top 25
4-7 vs. RPI 26-50
8-11 vs. RPI top 50

Arizona would then lose in the first round of the conference tournament to Arizona State falling to 19-13. The other thing of note was they didn't win any of those games outside of Arizona and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch and yet despite those huge negatives still got in to the NCAA tournament on the strength of quality victories.

The Bearcats will have that opportunity. They already have quality wins away from home and for them to get to 5-3 down the stretch they are most likely not going to have a poor finish. Now comparing one year against another does not guarantee anything. We could have a particularly strong bubble this year that would make the Bearcat's resume not look as good (though I doubt it, particularly because last season upsets in various conference tournaments really limited the amount of bubble teams that got in). My point is I believe 5-3 down the stretch will put the Bearcats in prime position for a bid. If they go 5-3 and add a sixth win in the Big East tournament I will feel really good.

So that is it. That is where UC stands. Will we pull it off? I do not know, but I can tell you I am ready to enjoy the ride. It is year four of the Mick Cronin era...and we are in position to play ourselves into the Big Dance. It is time to take care of business and get the job done. I do not want this drought to extend to five years. I am ready to dance again. As you can see, the Bearcats certainly have every opportunity to make that happen.

Is the Miami Rivalry Finished?

2009-10-01T14:05:00.001-07:00

In 2003 I was a college freshman at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Yes it pains me to admit it but i initially made a decision to go to college where there was a free golf course and a 70-30 girl to guy ratio instead of staying where I could continue to attend every Bearcat game. Needless to say I remedied this decision the next year. The week of the Battle for the Victory Bell I spoke to a local sports bar who assured me they would be carrying the game on their ESPN Gameplan package, but little did I know there was a strike brewing at Miami. I believe it was the Miami janitors who were striking...but do not hold me to that. However, the key point is that ESPN refused to cross the picket line. The game was not going to be televised. What was I to do?

At 5 PM I walked down the hall to a friend’s room and asked him the simple question, “What do you think about driving to Cincinnati with me tonight so I can catch the Bearcat vs. Redhawks game tomorrow?” He said he was in and we left within 20 minutes, arriving at my mom’s palatial Loveland estate around 230 AM (and was she ever surprised).

The point of that little foray into Bearcatmark history is that in 2003 I was willing to drive 8 hours spur of the moment so as to not miss the Battle for the Victory Bell. At that time the Bearcat vs. Miami game was the game I probably looked forward to most every season. Today it is just a blip on the radar. So I guess my question is this: Is the rivalry between the University of Cincinnati and Miami of Ohio effective over?

If I was to rank the Bearcat games that I really wanted to attend this season the Miami game would rank above Southeast Missouri State, but below everyone else. This would be fine if it was just my feelings, but I am fairly certain there are plenty of Bearcat fans who share that sentiment. The fact of the matter is these two schools are now on completely different levels. And while Miami is not always going to be as down as they are now and surely they will be successful again...maybe even enough to beat Cincinnati. However, even in those years they will not be playing the same game as the BCS Bearcats... we are simply in two different worlds.

I think Miami fans are even starting to understand it. A few of my Miami graduate friends put together a big group for the Miami vs. Kentucky game at PBS, but are doing their best to avoid the Cincinnati vs. Miami game. They are pretty sure it is going to be a massacre. Over on Redhawk message boards even their fans are acknowledging they are not on UC’s level these days.

Right now we are only a few years removed from when Miami was clearly the better team. The losses against Big Ben are still fresh in our minds. I still have fond memories of the triple overtime battle at Nippert and brutal memories of the kickoff return that beat UC up in Oxford, or the dropped punt when it looked like Gino was going to bring UC all the way back in 2003. What happens as we get further and further removed from this? Bearcat and Redhawk fans alike are already far less stoked for this game than they have been in my lifetime. When does complete apathy set in? It is not much of a rivalry when fans start viewing it as just another game.

Many Bearcat fans have asked should we continue to play the game... and given the circumstance surrounding it I understand the question. I am personally on the side of playing the game. I do not mind watching the Bearcats beat the tar out of the Redhawks once a year. I do not mind having a road game in close driving distance, in a place with a great tailgating lot, in a pretty fun college town. I say grab your pink shirts, pop your collars and get up there Bearcat fans.

As many have pointed out we do not have the money to pay 1A teams for guarantee games. If we are going to struggle for a seventh home game lets have a road game an hour away. For fans like me who drive to Rutgers and hope to fly to South Florida (apparently tickets out of Dayton to Tampa are 130 dollars right now Bearcat fans) a game at Miami is certainly one to take advantage of every other year. This game has still been played for over 100 years. It is still the first college football game played in Ohio and still one of the nations oldest rivalries. So lets smack them around at least for a while longer and take the lead in the series.

I have many fond memories from the Bearcat vs. Miami rivalry. I have a few excruciating ones. Despite that this game is at the bottom of the list when it comes to Bearcat games I want to attend or care about watching. We are a few years removed from when this game was the biggest of the year and already their is a ora of apathy surrounding it. It would be nice if Miami could become at least a good team again on a consistent basis, but even if they do the game has lost its significance. I hope we keep playing, I like the game, but as it appears to me the Miami/Cincinnati rivalry is effective over.

Bearcat Offense Will Make it Difficult on Beavers

2009-09-17T12:05:00.000-07:00

Tony Pike throws a 7 yard completion to Mardy Gilyard, 6 yard completion to Armon Binns, another 6 yard completion to Armon Binns, 9 yard completion to Ben Guidugli, 6 yard rush for Isaiah Peed, 16 yard completion to Mardy Gilyard forcing a Rutgers timeout, 27 yard completion to D.J. Woods, and the drive is capped off by with a 2 yard touchdown run by Isaiah Peed... the season began that quickly. In a mere 2 and half minutes the Bearcats took the opening kickoff and marched 81 yards in 9 plays for a touchdown. If you were expecting rust, or early mistakes, or starting slow you were mistaken. I could not have pictured a more perfect start to a season. Sure a long pass for a touchdown would have been cool, or a Mardy Gilyard kickoff return for a touchdown would have cause the all of us Bearcats that made the trip and those watching from home to go bonkers, but neither would have told us as much about the Bearcat offense as that incredibly quick and yet still 9 play drive. The Bearcats never got less than 6 yards on any play that drive. For me the highlight of the drive was Rutgers burning a timeout because they simply were not ready for the onslaught of offense and the speed of the attack. This was just a pure, methodical drive. It was exactly what this Bearcat offense is about.

The Bearcats went on to run Rutgers out of their newly expanded stadium and then laid 70 on Southeast Missouri State (a team with the worst nickname in sports). It amazes me the complete 180 many in the media have done on Rutgers since that game. Before the game there were a ton of people picking Rutgers to win the league. They were talking about their 7 game winning streak to end the season, their favorable schedule, their talented defense and all the offensive lineman they returned. After the game the general consensus has seemed to become “Rutgers is not that good.”

To me, however, the game said far more about what this Bearcat offense is capable of than it said about Rutgers. I felt going in this would be the best Bearcat offense in my lifetime, now I feel this will be one of the best in the country. The Bearcats went to a hostile environment and looked brilliant. Trust me when I say this these Rutgers fans and players were absolutely stoked for this game. The Bearcats had become a nemesis to the Scarlet Knights and nothing would have made them happier than to take down Cincinnati in their newly expanded stadium. The ability of our no huddle offense to function at that capacity, on the road in front of 60,000 screaming fans was incredibly impressive. It is going to translate well this week at Oregon State.

To me the most exciting part of the offense this year and been the stellar play of the offensive line. Tony Pike has really not been touched. I believe Pike has been sacked one time this season, on a blitz that was not read as a player came untouched. The Bearcat lineman have absolutely been abusing their opponents. They are also getting down field and hitting people on running plays. They have opened up huge holes for both Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Peed. The size, strength, skill and athleticism of these offensive lineman seems to be exactly what Brian Kelly envision when he described what his offense could be as he took over the Bearcats. If the offensive line continues to knock people around like this I expect the offense to continue to dominate all season.

So what does all this mean for the huge match-up this week in Corvallis, Oregon against the Oregon State Beavers?

Bearcat Offense vs. Oregon State Defense:

The Oregon State defense has given up some yards through the air so far this season and they really have not been able to pressure the quarterback. Bare in mind their first two games were against Portland State and UNLV. Now I am sure Mike Reilly was not showing everything in those games, but that has to give the Beavers pause for concern. I really believe the Bearcats will be able to move the ball against Oregon State. The key will be maintaining the efficiency they have shown in the first two weeks. I believe the first team offense has punted 1 time (a three and out last week where the Bearcats dropped two passes), and turned it over one time (the int against Rutgers). Other than that the Bearcats are scoring and scoring touchdowns. If they can continue to play fast and pick up yards in large chunks they are going to force Oregon State to keep up.

Bearcat Defense vs. Oregon State Offense:

To me this is the area where there are still a bunch of unknowns. I was very happy with the Bearcat performance on defense against Rutgers and I did not read much into their performance against Southeast Missouri State. I still think the Bearcat front seven is very good and will cause problems. Brian Kelly's strategy against Rutgers seemed to be to make the Scarlet Knights sustain long drives if they want to score. I believe we will see a similar strategy against the Beavers. The Oregon State offensive line is probably not as good as the Rutgers line so I believe the Bearcats will be able to do the job at the line of scrimmage. Still to slow down Jaquizz Rodgers the Bearcats linebackers and safeties are going to have to fill the gaps and make tackles. Rodgers is not as explosive a back as you expect but he consistently gets solid yardage. Very few teams have slowed him down.

The other key will be that the corners and safeties do not give up big plays to the Oregon State wide receivers. To me this is the way Oregon State can hang around this game. I firmly believe the Oregon State offense is going to have to score 30+ to beat Cincinnati and the only way they are going to do that is by getting some big plays. The Beaver offense has not been nearly as efficient as the Bearcat offense so far this season. UNLV pretty much shut them down in the first half last week. To win the game Cincinnati does not have to shut down Oregon State, instead they need to continue to limit big plays forcing Oregon State to sustain long drives. I do not believe their offense is efficient enough to put up big points that way. Forcing teams to sustain long drives is also how the Bearcats force opponents into into making mistakes and turning the ball over. If the Bearcats win the turnover battle, they are not going to lose this game.

My Prediction:

Clearly I think the Bearcats are the better team in this match-up. I do not think the Oregon State defense is going to be able to slow down Cincinnati's fast, efficient spread offense and I think the Bearcat defense will slow down the Beavers enough to create some separation. For Oregon State to win this game I believe they will need some big plays on offense, to protect the ball on offense, and to force the Bearcats into a 2 or 3 turnovers. Playing out in a very hostile environment where the Beavers rarely lost will not be easy, but the Bearcats showed at Rutgers they are more than capable of being efficient on offense despite a hostile crowd. If Oregon State starts as slow as they did against UNLV they will be in for a long day. My prediction is the Bearcats jump them early, give up a few scores, but win going away.

Bearcats 42
Beavers 23

Bearcat Football Preview 2009

2009-09-03T08:21:00.000-07:00

By my count five different teams have been picked to win the Big East Conference this year by various sources. People seem to think the Bearcats will finish anywhere from 1 to 5 in the league. Coming off of their first Big East Championship (and first outright league title in decades) can the Bearcats repeat? With the target on their backs and a defense that only returns 1 starter it would seem a tall order. In good news, however, Brian Kelly remains the coach of the Bearcats and the offense returns almost entirely intact...with all that in mind lets take a detailed look about what to expect this season.

On Defense:

The first thing everyone notices about this Bearcat defense is everything they lost. Gone are drafted secondary members Mike Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, and Brandon Underwood. Gone is Big East sack leader and second round draft pick Conner Barwin. Gone is All American Defensive Tackle Terrill Byrd. All told the Bearcats lost 10 of 11 starters. Also missing is Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tressey with his 4-3 zone defense and in his place steps Bob Diaco with his aggressive 3-4. Truth be told this Cincinnati defense could not at first glance look any more different from the 2008 version that helped lead the Bearcats to a Big East Championship.

The good news is this may not be as bad as it appears. The Bearcats appear to have a big, strong, and fast defensive line. Every player returning contributed positively last season. By all accounts Derek Wolfe has been an imposing force throughout camp. At 6'5 and over 300 pounds Wolfe offers a combination of size and skill that has been rarely seen on the Bearcat defensive line. He seems ideally situated to be a force at nose tackle. Combined with other strong, athletic players like John Hughes, Rob Trigg, Ricardo Mathews, Alex Daniels and Dan Giordano I have little doubt the Bearcat defensive line will be able to occupy offensive lineman and allow the linebackers plenty of opportunities to make plays. Any added pressure these guys can put on the quarterback will be a complete bonus for the defense.

With the defensive lineman making life very difficult on opposing offenses it should free up space for the linebackers and safeties to make plays. The starting safeties for Cincinnati are ideally suited to do just that. Aaron Webster was great against the run last season. He was consistently in on tackles, delivering big hits, without allowing big yards. When healthy Bearcat coaches have been very impressed with the play of Drew Frey and I have little doubt he will be very solid in run defense.

Linebacker is a position with far more questions, but lets start with the good news. The outside linebacker position in the 3-4 defense seems like an ideal place to showcase the skills of Curtis Young. Curtis Young was somewhat limited in action last season playing behind all Big East defensive end Conner Barwin, but in that limited action he yielded 4 sacks and 8.5 tackles for a loss. Young is the type of player who can line up with his hand on the ground at more of a defensive end position and can play straight up like a linebacker. I look for him to be disruptive in opposing backfields all season long. Andre Revels becomes the full time starter for the first time in his career at middle linebacker. Revels has been solid essentially splitting time with Manalac 50-50 over the past two season. The rest of the Bearcat linebacking corp does not lack for strength or athleticism. Former quarterback Demetrius Jones may be the most athletic player on the Bearcat roster. Craig Carey and Marcus Waugh have also taken their abilities and moved to the defensive side of the football. Players like Colin McCafferty, J.K. Schaffer, Robby Armstrong and Dorian Davis will get their chance to make plays. These linebackers probably have more athletic ability than last years and I think this will translate into players who perform strongly against the run all season.

Which brings me to the big question for the Bearcat defense... pass defense. How well will these linebackers, playing in a completely new system and starting for the first time be able to understand and execute the pass defenses Bob Diaco asks them to play? If the Bearcat defense is going to struggle to me this is the obvious area that will give them problems. Beyond the linebackers, will the Bearcats be able to adequately replace the contributions NFL bound Mickens, Smith and Underwood were able to give them. I have a great deal of confidence in Dominique Battle because he was able to do it on the field late last season. Brad Jones has the experience and the size, but he has not been asked to be a full time corner before... will he be up to the task? The Bearcats will need Battle, Jones and some of the other young cornerbacks like Reubon Johnson, MJ James, Chris Williams, and Camerron Cheetham to step up in a big way if they are going to repeat as Big East Champions.

All in all I feel very good about the Bearcat run defense and see some obvious questions when it comes to their pass defense. If the Bearcats can answer those concerns they can be every bit as good, if not better than last years championship squad.

On Offense:

There has never been a season where I have had more confidence about a Cincinnati Bearcat offense heading into week 1. In Gino Guidugli's final season he had a completely new head coach who ran a different type of offense. When Brian Kelly arrived he was trying to switch from power running to shotgun spread and was trying to do it with a relatively undistinguished transfer QB with pins in his arm. Last season everyone was wondering would it be Mauk, Grutza, Pike or someone else leading the show? When Coach Kelly decided on Grutza everyone remembered his mediocre career as Dantonio's starter. Could Kelly turn him into a star? Eventually Grutza went down and Pike took over leading Cincinnati to a Big East Championship. The great part about that was now Cincinnati fans have an idea of what they can get from Pike and the possibilities have us excited.

Not enough is being made of the fact that this is the first time Brian Kelly has known his quarterback going into the spring since he was coaching at Division II Grand Valley State. Think about that for a second. Think about how good Brian Kelly's offenses have looked at Central Michigan and now at Cincinnati and remember that he has done that without getting an entire off-season to really prepare one quarterback. Tony Pike has been the guy all off-season. He has taken the first team reps, been able to continually up is connection with his receivers and running backs, enhance his feel for the offensive lineman and their protections, as well as really master the offense. Last season because of all the injuries and uncertainties the Bearcats slowed things down. They did not get to the line as fast or change the pace like they had in Kelly's first season. Now with Pike being the guy and being prepared all off-season I expect to see everything Kelly wants to throw out there this season. To me this is huge and the biggest story going into the season for Bearcat football. I just cannot imagine this offense not clicking on all cylinders.

This of course would be less relevant if the Bearcats had lost a bunch of players on offense, luckily that is not the case. Pike has back his entire left side of the offensive line to protect his blind side in Linkenbach and Kelce, as well as he gets his starting center back in Chris Jurek. The Bearcats are replacing the right side of the line, but they are doing so with talent that saw plenty of action last season and have the potential to be very good. Alex Hoffman, C.J. Cobb, and Sam Griffen are expected to really solidify the offensive line. The Bearcats have their top three running backs returning and fans expect to see more of play making type backs such as Isaiah Pead and Darrin Williams this season. Perhaps the deepest position on the Bearcat roster is wide receiver where they return first team all Big East wide receiver Mardy Gilyard as well as talented contributors Armon Binns, D.J. Woods, and Marcus Barnett. With all of this talent back, an entire off-season working with Kelly to master the off-season and the prospect of repeating as Big East Champions I have little doubt Tony Pike will lead this offense to huge accomplishments this season. I really believe this will be the best Bearcat offense of the modern era.

On Special Teams:

You do not replace Kevin Huber. The man led the nation in net punting back to back seasons. I am not sure how often that happens but I am willing to bet it is incredibly rare. I have never seen a punter consistently put the ball inside the 10 or at the very least 20 as often as Huber did. When the Bearcats were banged up it was Kevin Huber that allowed the Bearcats to play much more conservatively than I am sure Brian Kelly is used to or ideally wanted to. My hope is the Bearcats get solid punting. If they do that I really feel with the strong offense they can offset the loss of Kevin Huber. Still in close games against top notch defenses that is a worry.

Throwing out Huber, however, I am very confident in Bearcat special teams. Mardy Gilyard took two kickoffs back for touchdowns in 2008 and was one of the premier kickoff returners in the country. I think D.J. Woods has to potential to come into his own as a punt returner this year. Jake Rodgers has gotten his share of grief as a Bearcat but his sophomore year was considerably better than his freshman year and really when you look at the numbers he was very good. Now he has another year of experience. He already has a huge leg (3-4 from 50+) and I really believe this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a huge weapon for the Bearcats (though ideally we will be scoring touchdowns not field goals).

Season Projections:

@ Rutgers, Monday September 7: Talk about an enormous way to open the season. This is a Labor Day conference game against two of the favorites to win the conference. This really is a game the Bearcats cannot afford to lose if they want to win the Conference. Rutgers is returning a bunch on defense and their offensive line is completely intact from last year. They do, however, lose their quarterback and top two receivers. I really believe there is not a better time to catch Rutgers, because once they get their quarterback situation settled they are going to be as good as anyone in the league. Rutgers has the advantage of playing all of the projected contenders at home (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and South Florida). If Cincinnati can win this game it will be them with a huge leg up on the other contenders who will have to go to Rutgers after they get their QB situation in order. Leaning Towards Win

Southeast Missouri State, Saturday September 12: The first home game of the year should be a route. WIN

@ Oregon State, Saturday September 19: A huge non-league road trip where the Bearcats will really get the opportunity to represent the Big East. Two years ago the Bearcats absolutely abused the Beavers at Nippert. Oregon State has one of the best running backs in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. They return a good amount of starters from a team that tied for second in the PAC Ten. It is never easy to win in Corvallis...just ask Pete Carroll and USC who lost the last 2 times they went there(including last season). I like the Bearcats' ability to stop the run, but this will be a very difficult road environment. Tossup

Fresno State, Saturday September 26: Fresno State is always a tough non-conference test for BCS teams. They seem to always come ready to play and have consistently competed for WAC titles. This game is sandwiched in between a trip to the west coast and a traditional rivalry game so we have to hope the Bearcats remain focused. That being said I do not anticipate a loss. WIN

@Miami (OH), Saturday October 3: A rivalry that is going to be one-sided for a while. WIN

@ USF, Thursday October 15: The Bearcats are lucky in that they get their first bye week to prepare for a Thursday night game at league rival USF (USF also has a bye so it is not an advantage). The Bearcats have owned the Bulls and particularly Matt Grothe the past few seasons, however, this game has an interesting twist with former Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tresey running the Bulls defense. Tresey and his knowledge of the Bearcats and what they do scares me a bit, but in the end I still like this team to get the job done. Leaning Towards Bearcats

Louisville, Saturday October 24: Homecoming... I know it is a rivalry, but I expect Louisville to be really bad. WIN

@Syracuse, Saturday October 31: It is Syracuse...they are starting a Duke Flopper who has not played football in four years at quarterback... I have confidence. WIN

UCONN, Saturday November 7: Big revenge game for the Bearcats who absolutely fell apart last season in the forth quarter against UCONN. Last year was the first game where I have really questioned Kelly's strategy as he refused to run the ball even with Anderson looking awful. UCONN is never an easy team to play. They are well coach and have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I really do not think they have enough offense. WIN

West Virginia, Friday November 13: It is Friday the 13^th and the Bearcats have a huge conference game against WVU. To me this is the game that really could decide the conference championship. West Virginia had owned the Bearcats in Big East play up until last season. I personally believe that Brown is going to do a very good job running an offense that will be very balanced this year for the Mountaineers. Can the Bearcats beat the Mountaineers and repeat as Big East champions? I think being at home gives the Bearcats a slight advantage... very slight. Leaning Towards Bearcats (barely)

Illinois, Friday November 27: The Bearcats get a week off to refocus after the WVU game. That is nice, because this is another great chance for the Big East to show what they have out of conference. It is hard to know what to expect from Illinois. Last year they really struggled, two years ago they made the Rose Bowl. The talent is there, will they perform? I say not in a hostile Nippert. WIN

@Pittsburgh: I think the loss of McCoy hurts more than many believe. Pittsburgh has a very good defense, but to me not as dominate as some have made it out to be. I think the Bearcats are able to score enough to win while Pittsburgh struggles to run the football on the Bearcat defense. This game scares me a bit because if Pittsburgh can get consistent production from the quarterback position they could be as good as anyone in the conference (and potentially a top 15 team). I, however, have not seen anything to really prove that will happen. WIN (but worries me a little)

Looking back at my projections I have 7 solid wins for the Bearcats to go with 1 win that worries me a little, 3 leaning towards win and 1 true tossup. Of those 5 non wins I am going to assume the Bearcats lose no more than 4 and lose at least 1. With all that said my range for the Bearcats this season is 8-4 to 11-1. I am leaning towards the higher totals that fits with my projection that has many of the tossup type games as close Bearcat wins. My projection is 10-2 with a 6-1 or 5-2 conference record. If we go 6-1 in conference I think we have a great shot at a Big East Championship. Looking at everything I still think the Bearcats have the best odds of any team in the conference to win the Big East. (Last year my projection was 11-2 and said if 1 of the wins was at WVU we'd be Big East Champions)... So there you have it. Monday cannot get here soon enough. Still to come this week is my full Big East Preview... until then... OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHH OH OH OH OH UC!!!

Games I Am Looking Forward to in the Opening Round

2009-03-17T10:47:00.000-07:00

Thursday:

8. LSU vs. 9. Butler (Greensboro, 12:20pm)- I love how the NCAA committee gave no respect to the SEC…frankly the SEC did not earn respect. I like this Butler team, they are young, but they have showed a lot of promise.

8. BYU vs. 9. Texas A&M (Philadelphia 12:30 pm)- another 8 vs. 9 matchup between a mid-major and power conference team. I like Texas A&M in this game but I always like to see the non-power conference get a win and BYU certainly has a solid squad.

5. Purdue vs. 12. Northern Iowa (Portland 2:30 pm)- The Missouri Valley has traditionally been a tough out in the NCAA tournament. Northern Iowa is not particularly athletic, but they play smart basketball and can shoot the ball. As everyone knows by now 12 seeds almost always beat a 5 seed at least once in the NCAA tournament. I do not think this is the matchup, not because Northern Iowa is not capable, but because Purdue is really playing well right now. Purdue with a healthy Hummel is a fine basketball team and can make a nice run.

7. California vs. 10. Maryland (Kansas City 2:55 pm)- Both these teams have top notch coaches. Maryland made the necessary run they needed late in the year to make the dance. On their best night the Terps are capable of beating anyone. Cal has been more consistent throughout the season… still I like the ACC over the Pac Ten in this one.

4. Washington vs. 13. Mississippi State (Portland 5 pm)- With their backs to the wall Mississippi State made it happen. They won 4 games in 4 days to earn their way into the Big Dance. My favorite part of March every year is almost every team in America gets to play until they lose, in that sense the conference tournaments are an extension of the NCAA tournament…everyone is alive. Anyone who has not seen Vernado play is missing out. He reminds me of Kenyon Martin. Though he does not have the offensive skill Kenyon displayed he is a better shot blocker…the best in the country.

7. Texas vs. 10. Minnesota (Greensboro 7:10 pm)- The first of the games featuring a mediocre big ten team. Minnesota has had their moments this year, but I do not think they are good enough to beat Texas when they play well.

7. Clemson vs. 10. Michigan (Kansas City 7:10 pm)- Clemson has been really falling apart down the stretch. I also have no confidence in any Clemson team to win anything. Beilein is a heck of a coach. This is a game I think Michigan can win.

4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Akron (Portland 7:25 pm)- I think Gonzaga is capable of making a nice run this year, but am always interested in seeing the Ohio teams. The MAC has not one and NCAA tournament game in years, I believe since Antonio Gates was killing it at Kent State. I expect that trend to continue.

6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU (Philadelphia 9:50 pm)- Two years ago Eric Maynor lit up duke as VCU pulled a big first round upset (also as an 11 seed). Maynor is averaging 22 points per game in his senior campaign and he is added by Sophomore big man Larry Sanders. VCU is certainly capable of a big upset.

5. Illinois vs. 12. Western Kentucky (Portland 9:55 pm)- Another possible 12/5 upset. Western Kentucky was in the sweet 16 last season. They are probably not as good this time around, but Illinois has been a bit up and down. They will likely be without or at the very best with the limited services of their starting point guard. (And that concludes day 1)

Friday:

8. Oklahoma State vs. 9. Tennessee (Dayton 12:25)- Another 8 vs. 9 battle and this could be a high scoring game. Both of these two teams like to run. Tennessee has been very inconsistent but they have the talent to give teams trouble. (Quick tangent here…the sound at wherever I watch the games in Vegas needs to be on the Dayton Regional where Bill Raftery is doing color commentary. Raftery is the Babe Ruth of sports announcing. He defines the position. Whether he’s telling you what defense a team is starting in (MANTOMAN) or telling you how clutch a player is for making a huge play (ONIONS) or announcing a game as a Pitt player breaks the backboard “Send it in Jerome!” Raftery brings this flair to the job that is fun, but not over the top. Raftery understands the game but does not annoy you with his own personal agendas. Bill Simmons can have Gus Johnson… I’ll take Bill Raftery every time.)

3. Kansas vs. 14. North Dakota State (Minneapolis 12:30)- 2 of the last 3 years Kansas has been eliminated in round 1 (by Bucknell and Bradley). North Dakota State is a great story making the NCAA tournament in their first year of Division 1 college basketball. They redshirted this year’s senior class a few years back so they would be available for their first year in Division 1. Ben Westbrook is scoring over 22 per game and has gone for 60 this year. I do not think North Dakota State will do it, but I am very intrigued by this game (particularly since Kansas has lost to Texas Tech and Baylor in the last two weeks).

6. Marquette vs. 11. Utah State (Boise 12:30)- People think Marquette is done without James. I know they have lost 5 of 6, but those games were to 1 seeds and 3 seeds (yea every loss) and three were ridiculously close. I think they are getting their act together. I am anxious to see them come to play against Utah State (and in the next round I think their guards are too good to be bothered by the Missouri press). I also do not know what it is about the Boise location but it always seems to produce the best NCAA tournament early round games. I swear one of these years I am going to make a trip to Boise for the opening rounds.

6. Arizona State vs. 11. Temple (Miami 2:45 pm)- Another 6/11 game of intrigue. James Harden vs. Deonte Christmas will be a really good matchup.

6. West Virginia vs. 11. Dayton (Minneapolis 3 pm)- West Virginia has really been valued this year by guys like Ken Pomeroy who calculate offensive and defensive efficiency. They are 1 of 6 teams in the country to be in the top twenty nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (Every champion since 2005 has had that trait). Huggins 13-3 in his career in first round games and has not loss an opening round game as anything higher than an 8 seed. I think WVU makes a statement here and I look for them to make a run.

5. Utah vs. 12. Arizona (Miami 7:10pm)- I think a 5 seed was very generous for Utah (I had them as a 7). Many people do not think Arizona earned their way in, but they have some big time quality victories. With Arizona it always depends on which team shows up. I think they have a great set to put the “upset.”

7. Boston College vs. 10. USC (Minneapolis, 7:20)- Boston College is another team with some great wins and bad losses. The USC Trojans have been facing elimination since Pac Ten tournament play began. I like their chances to continue their run of success.

4. Xavier vs. 13. Portland State (Boise 7:25)- Reading up on Portland State they are a much more dangerous team for Xavier than I originally thought. I think they are going to really pressure Xavier’s point guards, which tends to result in turnovers for X. The key for Portland State will be hitting threes. Xavier has lost 5 of their last 10 and at times to teams not as good as Portland State. This could be another game where the magic of Boise shines through.

4. Wake Forest vs. 13. Cleveland State (Miami 9:40)- I thought Wake Forest earned a 3 seed, but the committee thought differently. A 3 seed would have produced a much more favorable matchup. Cleveland State is very good having already beaten Syracuse and played WVU pretty tough this season. If Wake Forest shows up and plays their best they will win, but they have struggled against lesser teams from time to time this year.

8. Ohio State vs. 9. Siena (Dayton 9:40)- Can Siena overcome the home court advantage that Ohio State will have? Siena is a very good basketball team that as a 13 seed last year was able to advance to the second round. This year they get a better matchup, but in a tougher venue. Ohio State seems to be playing their best basketball. I expect them to move on, but Siena should give them a fight.

5. Florida State vs. 12. Wisconsin (Boise 9:55)- I think Florida State was very under-seeded. They are a really good team. The more I have looked at Wisconsin’s resume the less impressed I have been. Bo Ryan’s teams are always dangerous, but I think the Seminoles take care of business.

Most Likely First Round Upsets in order of likelihood…I think you will see 4 or 5 (11 seeds and below)
12. Arizona over 5. Utah
11. VCU over 6. UCLA
11. Temple over 6. Arizona State
12. Western Kentucky over 5. Illinois
13. Mississippi State over 4. Washington
13. Cleveland State over 4. Wake Forest
11. Utah State over 6. Marquette
12. Wisconsin over 5. Florida State
14. North Dakota State over 3. Kansas
13. Akron over 4. Gonzaga
11. Dayton over 6. West Virginia

Sleeper Teams that can make the Sweet 16 and beyond, in order of likelihood (seeded 6 and below…I think there will be 3-5)
West Virginia
Marquette
Texas
Western Kentucky
Michigan
Arizona
Clemson
Tennessee
Southern Cal
Boston College
Mississippi State
Maryland
VCU

6 Final Four Sleepers (3 seeds and Below)
Syracuse
Villanova
Purdue
West Virginia
Gonzaga
Florida State

My Final 4
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Memphis

Championship
Pitt over U of L

Me vs. The Selection Committee

2009-03-15T19:11:00.000-07:00

All in all it was a pretty good year for me predicting the field of 65. I nailed 27 of the 65 teams exactly on their seed-line and an additional 32 of 65 within 1 of their seed-line. So the field as a whole I got 59-65 either on or within 1 seed-line of their eventual seed. I did not have any team seeded any more than 2 lines from the selection committee. You may not be surprised, but I really think the committee did the best job I have ever seen them do this year. Here is a look at the teams I nailed exact as well as the teams I was within 1 line on.

Teams I nailed their seed (seeds before the name)- 27 of 65
1. Louisville
1. Pitt
1. UNC
1. UCONN
2. Memphis
2. Michigan State
2. Duke
2. Oklahoma
3. Syracuse
3. Villanova
4. Washington
6. UCLA
6. Arizona State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Butler
10. Southern Cal
11. Utah State
11. Temple
12. Arizona
14. American
15. Cal State Northridge
15. Binghampton
15. Robert Morris
16. Chattanooga
16. Radford
16. Alabama State
16. Morehead State

Teams I was within one seed line (32 of 65)
Boston College, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga, Cleveland State, Wake Forest, Portland State, Marquette, Cornell, California, Missouri, Western Kentucky, VCU, Clemson, Minnesota, Stephen F Austin, BYU, Kansas, North Dakota State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Maryland, Dayton, Morgan State, Texas, Michigan, Purdue, Xavier, Akron, Illinois, Ohio State, Siena

My Six Big Misses
Utah- I had Utah as a 7 seed (and the last 7 seed at that) and the committee made them a five. Needless to say I think they are too high. Utah has great RPI numbers, which probably explains their lofty seed. They do not, however have a ton of high profile wins. In the end I am fine with the seed, but I just happen to disagree with the merits of it.

Florida State- I think this team has inexplicably flown under the radar all season. Not even a run to the finals of the ACC tournament was enough to move them up. I had them as a 3, they probably had the body of work of a 4 seed. Tough break being a 5 and drawing dangerous Wisconsin team to open the tournament. Still I do not think Florida State can be too upset with playing a fading Xavier team in the second round.

Wisconsin- I think the Committee got it right with Wisconsin. I had them as my 5th to last team in. It looks like the committee had them as their second to last team or last team. Their resume really does not jump out at you. I probably had them slightly too high.

LSU- I thought the committee would give more credit to LSU’s success in a very bad SEC. I am thrilled to see that this was not the case. I had LSU as a 6…I think an 8 seed is much closer to where they deserve to be. It was very clear from their seed and then Tennessee’s seed that the committee did not think very highly of the SEC this season. I applaud them for this judgment.

Tennessee- Another decision I applaud the committee for. I had them as a 7, the committee made them a 9. Tennessee has a strong strength of schedule but has been about as up and down as a team can be. They played in a conference that was way down and only managed a share of the Eastern Division Title. Well done by the committee.

East Tennessee State- Portland State, Cornell and East Tennessee State currently are 114, 115, and 116 in the RPI respectively. Portland State is a 13 seed, Cornell is a 14 seed and East Tennessee State is only a 16 seed. I think they were seeded too low, but seeding those last teams from small conference is somewhat of a crapshoot.

All in all I think the committee did a fantastic job this year and put together a very good NCAA tournament field. I feel bad for San Diego State, but with the conference tournament upsets a deserving team or two (Penn State) was going to be left out. I’ll have more throughout the week including a list of my favorite matchups of round 1, some sleeper teams, some possible upsets and some teams I think got great draws for the type of game they like to play.

My Final Bracket Projection

2009-03-15T13:02:00.001-07:00

A couple of things of note as I unveil my final bracket projection before the committee announces the field of 65 at 6 pm. First I have Ohio State and Purdue slotted and the results of there game will have no outcome on my bracket. I think their body of work is complete enough without their third game in three days meaning much.

My number 1 seeds are Louisville, Pitt, UNC and UCONN in that order. Louisville by virtue of winning the Big East regular season and tournament title has earned the number 1 overall seed. I considered Memphis for a one seed but in the end I do not think their body of work compares to the other four teams. I think they are certainly better now than early in the season, but we have nothing to compare them to the other one seeds with. With the absence of a meaningful way to evaluate them against the other 1 seeds I cannot justify putting them on the top line of the bracket.

I think Syracuse has played themselves into a 3 seed with their run to the Big East tournament finals. Syracuse has wins over Kansas, UCONN and Memphis… I don’t think any team in the country has a more impressive set of three victories. Similarly I think Florida State’s run in the ACC played them into a 3 seed.

I have never seen such a run of dwindling at large spots because of conference tournaments. The Horizon, Atlantic Ten, Pac Ten, and SEC all eliminated at large opportunities for a number of teams.

My breakdown by conference is as follows:
Big East- 7
ACC- 7
Big 10- 7
Pac Ten- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 3
Atlantic 10- 3
Mountain West- 2
Horizon- 2
All other leagues- 1 each

Last Four In
Dayton
Minnesota
Maryland
Arizona

First Five Out
San Diego State
Penn State
Creighton
St Mary’s
Auburn

Here are some thoughts on those last teams in and first few out.

Dayton- I am very confident they are in.

Minnesota- Also very confident they are in. Their non-conference victory over Louisville has a lot of legs and I think they did enough in the Big 10.

Maryland- I think they left the committee with a good impression and they have three of the best victories in the country beating Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. They have been inconsistent much of the year, which hurts, but they won when they had to in the ACC tournament to get a bid. I think the committee will put them in because of that.

Arizona- Here is the spot I am most likely to be wrong on. Many have Arizona out. They have been dreadful on the road going 2-9, which will hurt. In the past the committee has continually rewarded teams that scheduled and won out of conference. In their non-conference schedule the Wildcats beat Kansas, San Diego State, and Gonzaga. In the conference they beat Washington, UCLA and Southern Cal. That gives Arizona 6 RPI top 50 victories (two top 25), which is considerably better than most of the teams they are competing with. I think the committee once again will reward a team that scheduled ambitiously and beat some teams by giving them the last spot.

The Five I Have Just Out
San Diego State- They did everything that I thought they had to do in the Mountain West tournament and it might not be enough. I would have no problem with the committee selecting San Diego State over Arizona or Maryland.

Penn State- They scheduled atrociously out of conference and the committee has generally not been kind to bubble teams that scheduled poorly. They have several big wins in conference play including two big road wins over Michigan State and Illinois. The committee could put them in because of those road wins, I think they come up just short.

Creighton- Left the committee with a bad impression getting waxed in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament semifinals. Their victory over Dayton does not look as good as it once did. Their other big victories are New Mexico, Northern Iowa and Illinois State…those wins are simply not good enough. I think Creighton is out.

St Mary’s- I keep hearing the case that this team is different with Patty Mills, which is probably true. They still do not have the necessary wins to tell me they are a tournament team. I know their record with Mills is very good, but they have not really beaten anyone of significance. They lost all three to Gonzaga (including getting smoked in the West Coast Conference finals). Their best victories are over Utah State and San Diego State. I think side by side with the rest of the bubble teams that is not enough.

Auburn- They played really well down the stretch in a very bad conference. I think they needed to beat Tennessee to have a case. They did not do that. They have nothing to distinguish themselves in their non-conference play. They are out.

For my bracket i followed a true S-curve not worrying about locations (for instance Louisville will likely be sent to Dayton for their first round games). In the true S curve the top 1 seed would play in the region with the lowest 2 seed. The only shifts i made were to avoid early matchups between conference teams and to make sure protected seeds from the same conference were not in the same region. This took more work this year because 9 of the top 12 seeds in my bracket are from the Big East and ACC. All conference champions are in bold for your convenience. With all that out there, here is my field of 65:

Indianapolis Region

1. Louisville
16. Radford/ Chattanooga

8. Boston College
9. Texas A&M

4. Washington
13. Northern Iowa

5. Gonzaga
12. Cleveland State

3. Wake Forest
14. Portland State

6. LSU
11. Utah State

7. Marquette
10. Southern Cal

2. Oklahoma
15. Cornell

Boston Region

1. Pittsburgh
16. Alabama State

8. California
9. Butler

4. Missouri
13. Western Kentucky

5. Arizona State
12. VCU

3. Villanova
14. American

6. Clemson
11. Minnesota

7. Tennessee
10. Wisconsin

2. Duke
15. Stephen F Austin

Memphis Region

1. North Carolina
16. Morehead State

8. Oklahoma State
9. BYU

4. Kansas
13. North Dakota State

5. West Virginia
12. Mississippi State

3. Syracuse
14. East Tennessee State

6. UCLA
11. Maryland

7. Utah
10. Dayton

2. Michigan State
15. Cal State Northridge

Arizona Region

1. UCONN
16. Morgan State

8. Texas
9. Michigan

4. Purdue
13. Binghampton

5. Xavier
12. Arizona

3. Florida State
14. Akron

6. Illinois
11. Temple

7. Ohio State
10. Siena

2. Memphis
15. Robert Morris

First Projection of the Field

2009-03-11T10:46:00.000-07:00

Here is my first projection for the NCAA field this selection Sunday. I think it is important to note a few things. There are always a few procedural changes. Protected teams from the same conference cannot play each other until the final four…so for example I flipped three seeds Wake Forest and Villanova to avoid a Sweet 16 clash of Wake Forest and Duke as well as an Elite Eight clash of UCONN and Villanova. Also the committee likes to avoid teams from the same conference meeting in the first two rounds, so there were a few switches made based on that.

I only have 2 SEC teams in my field at this time. I think there is still a good chance another can make the finals to play themselves in(and I think they need to make the finals to do that). Teams that have already won automatic births are in BOLD. Teams that will need an automatic birth to make it have their conference in brackets after their name. I think Providence must beat Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. I think VT, Maryland, and Miami Florida must win two in the ACC tournament. I think Northwestern has to win 2, maybe three. I think Kansas State has to make the finals of the Big 12. My last four in are pretty weak so it will be easy for them to fall out, but others behind have to step up.

I will have one more projection on Selection Sunday, shortly before the brackets are released.

Indianapolis Region

1. Pittsburgh
16. Radford/Alabama State (SWAC)

8. Butler
9. Tennessee

4. Xavier
13. Northern Iowa

5. Missouri
12. Cleveland State

3. Villanova
14. Cornell

6. Arizona State
11. Siena

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State

2. Duke
15. Morehead State

Boston Region

1. UCONN
16. Steven F Austin (Southland)

8. Boston College
9. Ohio State

4. Washington
13. North Dakota State

5. Clemson
12. Utah State (WAC)

3. Wake Forest
14. American (Patriot)

6. Marquette
11. Minnesota

7. Utah
10. Michigan

2. Memphis
15. Cal State Northridge (Big West)

Memphis Region

1. North Carolina
16. Chattanooga

8. Texas A&M
9. Arizona

4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky

5. Syracuse
12. VCU

3. Kansas
14. Portland State (Big Sky)

6. California
11. San Diego State

7. Gonzaga
10. Oklahoma State

2. Michigan State
15. Bowling Green (MAC)

Arizona Region

1. Oklahoma
16. Morgan State (MEAC)

8. Dayton
9. BYU

4. Florida State
13. Binghampton (American East)

5. UCLA
12. New Mexico

3. Illinois
14. East Tennessee State

6. LSU
11. Creighton

7. Texas
10. Wisconsin

2. Louisville
16. Robert Morris (Northeast)
Last Four In

San Diego State
Minnesota
Creighton
New Mexico

First Four Out

Providence
UNLV
Kansas State
Miami (Florida)

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
St. Mary’s
Northwestern
Maryland

Still in the Mix

Maryland
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Utah State
Temple

Ranking the Bubble - Early Championship Week

2009-03-09T08:44:00.000-07:00

It is very difficult to predict what the NCAA Selection Committee will do, because their criteria seems to be very subjective. They do have a list of things they look at, but often to justify who gets in they stress different criteria. My criteria for the ranking the teams on the bubble is basically as follows:1. I don't want to rank who is the most talented or who I believe is the BEST team...I want to rank who has done the most to warrant a bid. I value winning games against other tournament teams and winning games against other teams on the bubble. It is also important to prove you can win games away from home. A team that has shown an ability to win games against multiple NCAA teams away from home will get favorable treatment. There is also a ton to be said for consistency. A team like Maryland this season has two great wins (North Carolina and Michigan State), but a lot of bad losses. On Maryland’s best day they are a tournament team, but their best days are few and far between. 2. I have one slight bias. I tend to favor Conference Champions from small conferences over teams from major conferences with a lacking resume. A team like George Mason a few years ago receives very few chances to play teams from the major conferences. If they have shown they can compete with those teams AND been the dominant team in their conference I am inclined to give them the opportunity in the NCAA over teams like Florida and South Carolina from this year which yea have some good wins but has not really done quite enough with the opportunities they have been given. This year the Mountain West offers San Diego State and New Mexico who fit that mold. Another team like that is Creighton out of the Missouri Valley.

There are 3 conferences that I think will remain one bid leagues regardless of who wins their conference championship, but it is possible I could be wrong: the Southern Conference (likely Davidson), the MAAC (Siena) and the WAC (Utah State)… I think Siena is the most likely of that group to win an at large bid. There are other conferences where we could see the at large pool shrink if there are some upsets, so those on the bubble will be pulling for the conference favorites: the Mountain West (BYU or Utah), the A10 (Dayton and Xavier), the WCC (Gonzaga), the Horizon (Butler) and Conference USA (root for Memphis). Right now I have 21 teams competing for the last 9 at large spots. The number of at large spots could shrink if there are upsets in the above conference tournaments. With all that in mind here is how I would rank the bubble right now.

Off the Bubble (earned their way in)

Boston College- Boston College finished with a winning record in the ACC, which should be good enough to get them in the NCAA tournament. BC has two of the best wins in the country having taken down both North Carolina and Duke so they have proven they can compete with anyone. BC is 4-4 against the RPI top 50 with three of those wins coming against the RPI top 25.

Dayton- Their wins against Xavier and Marquette are excellent. Their RPI numbers say this is a tournament team. If the bubble field was stronger perhaps Dayton would sweat longer, but this team is in. Dayton is 4-2 against the RPI top 50.

Ohio State- Their win against Northwestern to get to 10-8 in the Big Ten cemented their status as an NCAA tournament team. Ohio State has looked shaky at times, but boasts five wins over the RPI top 50. When you look at those victories in detail they are not spectacular. They beat a Purdue team without Hummel at home, they swept bubble team Michigan, beat bubble team Minnesota and beat NCAA bound Butler. Still, the five wins and a bubble that has faded at the bottom will keep Ohio State in the dance.

BYU- 24-6, a first place finish in a pretty strong Mountain West conference and good wins over Utah, San Diego State and New Mexico will be enough. BYU sits at 22 in the RPI…only Missouri State in the committee’s inexplicable 2005 selections has missed the NCAA tournament with an RPI that low.

Texas A&M- They have exactly what the committee says they want from bubble teams good wins inside and outside of the conference. They have beaten LSU and Arizona in their non-conference slate and now have victories over Texas, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in Big 12 play. Texas A&M is 4-5 against the RPI top 50.

Tennessee- Their computer numbers are too good and they played too good a schedule to not make the NCAA tournament. This is one of the more inconsistent teams in the country. They lost this weekend to Alabama, were swept by Kentucky and lost to Ole Miss in conference play. Their wins over Marquette, Georgetown and their sweep of SEC bubble teams South Carolina and Florida…combined with their number 1 Strength of Schedule and good RPI numbers will keep them in the dance.

Arizona- It is strange to think a team that lost 4 of 5 down the stretch and only finished .500 in a mediocre conference is probably safely in the NCAA tournament, but that is exactly the case for the Wildcats. Arizona is also only 2-9 outside of Tucson Arizona. To their credit the Wildcats have 5 top 50 victories including wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Washington and UCLA. The strength of those wins will carry Arizona into the dance.

On the Good Side of the Bubble (In my opinion, for now)

Wisconsin- The Badgers have the best RPI of all the Big Ten teams on the massive Big Ten Bubble (by my count there are 5 and that does not include Ohio State, who some still consider a bubble team). The Badgers have finished relatively strong (compared to the rest of the fading bubble) going 7-2 down the stretch. The Badgers swept two fellow bubble teams in Michigan and Penn State. They also have home victories over Illinois and Ohio State.

Oklahoma State- the Oklahoma State Cowboys will be one of the more interesting cases on selection Sunday. They have played one of the nation’s better schedules and have inflated RPI numbers as a result. They own victories over bubble teams Siena and Rhode Island as well as conference foes Texas A&M and Texas. Still, the Cowboys are only 4-12 against the RPI top 50 including 0-5 against the RPI top 25. In truth they have played a ton of very good teams but won a very small percentage of those games. I think the committee will reward them for playing a tough schedule and getting what wins they did get, particularly with the rest of the bubble fading.

Penn State- Because of a very poor non-conference schedule Penn State has the lowest RPI of all of the Big Ten bubble teams, but they have been one of the better performs and have the best wins. The committee tends to reward road wins and the Nittany Lions have two enormous ones over Michigan State and Illinois. They have three other RPI top 50 wins beating Minnesota, Purdue and Michigan at home. Those wins and a 10-8 record in the Big Ten probably have Penn State on the right side of the bubble on selection Sunday.

Michigan- Michigan got a very important victory this weekend over Minnesota to move to .500 in Big Ten play. That might have been necessary, but now their big wins really come into play. Michigan played a difficult slate of nonconference games and came away with wins over UCLA and Duke. They also have victories over Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue. They have 6 victories over RPI top 50 teams, which is among the best for all of the teams on the bubble.

San Diego State- The Aztecs have probably become third in line for a bid out of the Mountain West Conference. A week ago I thought they were a long shot to make the NCAA’s, now I think they are going to be one of the last teams in. They do seem to lack some big wins. They have beaten Utah, New Mexico and swept UNLV. An early loss in the Mountain West tournament would probably doom their chances.

Minnesota- Minnesota lost an opportunity to lock up a bid against Michigan on Saturday. The Golden Gophers still can make a compelling case with a great non-conference victory over potential number 1 seed Louisville on a neutral court. They have 4 other top 50 RPI wins over Illinois, Ohio State and a sweep of Wisconsin. A win over Northwestern in round one of the Big Ten tournament will likely be enough.

Providence- The more I look at Providence the more I think they lack an NCAA caliber resume. They did finish 10-8 in one of the toughest conferences you will ever see, and have two great wins beating a virtually lock for a number 1 seed in Pitt and an immensely talented Syracuse team…but that is really the only meat on their resume. Providence is only 2-8 against the top 50 and 6-12 against the top 100. To be fair to Providence many of those losses are to the brutal top of the Big East, which few teams could probably get many wins against. To be a lock I think Providence is going to have to beat Cincinnati and Louisville in the Big East tournament (assuming Cincinnati gets by Depaul). A win over Cincinnati probably puts them teetering on the edge, dangerously close to not getting a bid.

Creighton- Creighton’s entire body of work is in place. Them staying in the tournament will largely depend on the performance of bubble teams around them like Providence, Minnesota, Miami (Fl), and Virginia Tech…as well as surviving the possibility of upsets in conferences like the Atlantic Ten, Mountain West, and Horizon. Creighton won a very solid Missouri Valley conference and was red hot down the stretch. They are 3-2 against the RPI top 50, their best win being against Dayton. They have other solid wins over Northern Iowa and New Mexico. They were 8-4 in road games this season and the committee loves true road wins. At 26-7 with an RPI of 39 I think they are sitting in fairly good position…their biggest issue is if some other teams play their way in they will be in trouble.

New Mexico- As of right now they are my last team in the NCAA tournament and I am not entirely comfortable with that. They finished with only 3 top 50 wins to 4 losses and have some less than desirable losses against Texas Tech, Central Florida, and drake. They did, however, win 10 of their last 12 including wins over Utah, BYU and San Diego State (all ahead of them in the pecking order). It should be noted that all three of those wins were at home. They still may need to beat Utah in the second round of the Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA’s.

On the Wrong Side of the Bubble (Once again in my opinion…for now)

UNLV- At some point a few great wins can only carry you so far and I think UNLV has finally reached that point. UNLV has a road victory over Big East champion Louisville, a sweep of NCAA bound BYU and a victory over Utah. They, however, have some bad losses of late against RPI 107 Wyoming, 156 TCU, and 196 Colorado State. They finished 5th in the Mountain West (a conference that is not getting 5 teams and though I have four in right now I doubt they will get four by Sunday), were swept by fellow bubble team San Diego State and lost recently to New Mexico. I think UNLV may need to make the finals (beating San Diego State and then BYU for a third time) to get a bid. Some great wins have carried UNLV for a while, but I do not think they will carry them in at this point.

Kansas State- The Wildcats are severely lacking in their out of conference resume. They are 7th in the Big 12 pecking order. They have wins over Texas, Texas A&M and Missouri (all tournament teams) but that is about it. Their 10-7 record in the Big 12 is solid, but their 102 Strength of Schedule and 77 RPI is not. They have a first round bye in the Big 12…I think they will need to get to the finals to warrant a bid (they’d likely have to beat Texas and Kansas).

Virginia Tech- They have two premier road victories over Clemson and Wake Forest but after that their season was filled with a ton of heartbreak. They lost on a half court shot to Xavier, lost on a last second shot to Wisconsin and lost late to Georgia. They have lost 6 of 7 to close the regular season and finished below .500 in the ACC. They are only 2-8 over the RPI top 50 and 6-11 vs. the RPI top 100. Virginia Tech does have a victory over Boston College and a road win over fellow bubble team Miami. Their first round ACC game against the Miami Hurricanes is essentially an elimination game…the loser will not make the tournament. I then think they will have to beat North Carolina to make the tournament.

Miami (Florida)- They have a very similar resume to the Hokies. They finished 7-9 in the ACC with a sweep over Boston College to their credit. The Hurricanes split with Maryland and have two very good victories over Wake Forest and Florida State. Miami is only 2-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-10 vs. the top 100. A loss in the first round to Virginia Tech and they are done…even with a win I think they will have to beat North Carolina to earn a bid.

St Mary’s- If St Mary’s fails to win the West Coast Conference tonight they will be a headache for the selection committee. I happen to believe they should not make the tournament. Their biggest problem is they only have two victories over potential NCAA tournament teams. Their best wins are over San Diego State (a bubble team at best) and Utah State (another bubble team who I do not think will get in without an NCAA bid). All of their bad losses came when star Patty Mills was hurt, in fact they are 18-1 with Mills in the lineup. Still without the high caliber wins I still think it is automatic bid or bust for St Mary’s.

Northwestern- They played their way back on to the bubble by racking up some great wins. The Wildcats can claim road victories over Michigan State, and Purdue. They have other wins over Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. They did very little to distinguish themselves out of conference, and finished below .500 in Big Ten play. They are out right now, but with a run to the Big Ten tournament finals…I think they still have an outside shot.

Rhode Island- The loss to Massachusetts probably killed their chances for an at-large birth. Rhode Island’s resume is better than you might think at first glance. They have good wins over Temple and Virginia Commonwealth to go with victories over Penn State (likely NCAA team) and Dayton (an NCAA lock). They finished second in the Atlantic Ten. If they can beat Dayton again and then make the A10 finals would that be enough? Maybe. I think the loss would have to be to Xavier and they would have to be competitive.

Temple- They have a solid RPI and finished in that 3-way tie for second in the Atlantic Ten. They have wins over Rhode Island, Penn State and Tennessee. If they can beat Xavier in the A10 tournament they will be in the conversation. I still think Temple probably has to win the Atlantic Ten tournament to get a bid.

Maryland- At 65 they have the lowest RPI of all the ACC bubble teams. To get to 8-8 in ACC play all they had to do was beat Virginia…they failed. Maryland has two great wins against North Carolina and Michigan State. They are 3-8 against the top 50 and split games with Miami (Florida) and Virginia Tech. Still Maryland only looks like a tournament team about 25 percent of the time. They have losses to Morgan State and Virginia. They must beat NC State and Wake Forest to be considered for an at large bid.

South Carolina- About the only thing I can say for South Carolina is they finished 10-6 in the SEC East. They have one victory over the RPI top 50 and that is over the Florida Gators (49). They are 7-7 against the RPI top 100. Other than Florida their best win is probably Auburn followed by a sweep of quickly fading Kentucky. I just do not see how this team is NCAA worthy (as much as a would love to watch Downey in the dance). About the best thing I can say for them vs. the other SEC bubble teams is that they did not lose to Georgia. If they beat LSU to make the SEC tournament finals maybe you can consider them, but even then I think their resume is very thin.

Florida- Another of the SEC bubble teams with incredibly meager resumes. Their game against Auburn in the second round of the SEC tournament will be an elimination game. Then they must at least beat Tennessee to be in consideration (I still think they may have to win the SEC tournament to earn a birth). They have two top 50 victories over Washington on a neutral site and over South Carolina. They are only 2-7 on the road.

Auburn- Another team that may actually have to win the SEC to make it, but I will include them on the bubble. The Florida game will be an elimination game, then they have to beat Tennessee to be considered. They did absolutely nothing in the nonconference (their best victory was against Virginia). They did, however, finish 8-1 down the stretch beating Tennessee and drilling LSU at home this weekend. I think the SEC is at best a 3 team league, and could be a 2 team league (though a surprise conference tournament champion for a second straight season would not surprise me at all).

Siena- They have great RPI numbers, but their best wins are over Niagara and Northern Iowa. They did their job of making the conference tournament finals, but I still think they need to beat Niagara tonight to go to the dance.

Off the Bubble…Must win their conference tournaments
Davidson
Utah State
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Georgetown
Notre Dame

Bubble Look: Kentucky vs. Cincinnati

2009-03-03T12:52:00.000-08:00

I am still of the belief that Cincinnati makes the tournament if they can win their last two games and make the quarterfinals of the Big East (they'd have to likely beat Depaul and either Providence, Syracuse or WVU to do that...the Providence game if that happens would likely be an elimination game). I am still a little baffled by how anyone can distinguish between the resume of say Kentucky and Cincinnati and put UK on top. The obvious answer is right now Kentucky beat 4 teams in most projected tournament brackets while Cincinnati only beat two... But let’s look closer and the wins are not very different.

For both teams their best win is WVU, though it is a better win for UK because it is on a neutral site.

They both have sweeps against two fading teams who have played great schedules and have strong RPI numbers in Georgetown for UC and Tennessee for UK (I know Georgetown and Tennessee are on opposite sides of the bubble, but their profiles do not differ too much)
The Bearcats win over UNLV on the road is a better win that Kentucky's home win over Florida.
The main difference in the teams is who the have lost to. Kentucky's worse losses are VMI, Ole Miss, Mississippi State (whom UC smoked), Vandy and twice to a South Carolina team with one top 50 RPI win (Kentucky was smoked by South Carolina in their second meeting).
The Bearcats two worse losses are getting swept by Providence which is comparable to the sweep of UK by South Carolina. Other than that their losses are to top 25 teams. (And for the most part top 15)... UCONN, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, Xavier, Memphis and Florida State. That is a murders row of games.
So UK and Cincinnati essentially have the same wins, but Kentucky has way worse losses... The quality of teams it has taken to beat Cincinnati this year is infinitely better than the teams it has taken to beat UK.
I know this is just one example...One side by side comparison, but to me it is a good one. In the end every single Cincinnati loss could be to an NCAA team. How many bubble teams in the country can make that claim?

My First Analysis of the Bubble

2009-03-02T10:59:00.001-08:00

After Cincinnati get smoked yesterday I spent some time doing basic analysis of the bubble ( I don’t like getting too in depth until championship week). I wanted to see who we are competing with for bids. I started off doing comparisons of basic numbers and wins and trying to rank teams 1 to 65 (I got to 60 when they started to be less relevant). Then I spent some time figuring out which are the 1 bid leagues and how many spots will be available to the other leagues. My rankings are still in the early stages so I won’t share them…but I will show you my analysis of what I see the bubble being at this point.

Here are the teams I still think are fighting for at large births. Every team ahead I think has almost secured their spot in the field. As of right now I have listed 20 teams competing for 9 at larges spots. I have 19 conferences listed that I am pretty positive will be one bid leagues, no matter what. A 20th, the Missouri Valley I think has a good chance to be a 1 bid league but Creighton could steal a bid if they lose in the conference tournament finals. There are 3 conferences I am assuming will be one bid leagues regardless of the conference tournament results that may not have been at various points in the year: the Southern Conference (likely Davidson), the MAAC (Sienna) and the WAC (Utah State)…I don’t see either of those three getting an at large bid. There are conferences where we want to root for the teams already in the field, and potentially could be dangerous for teams stealing bids: the Mountain West (root for BYU, Utah or UNLV), the A10 (Root for Dayton and Xavier), the WCC (Root for Gonzaga), the Horizon (root for Butler) and Conference USA (root for Memphis). I am willing to bet that one or two of those leagues will see upsets that shrink the at large pool. So keep that in mind…the 9 spots that look available now could shrink and worst case scenario they could shrink by 5 (I think this is very unlikely).

The following teams are the 20 fighting for the 9 spots available today. I have not done an in depth analysis but I do have some initial thoughts.

Texas A&M- Might need to beat Missouri or make a run in the Big 12 tournament. I like their chances because they have some good non-conference meat with wins over LSU and Arizona.
Oklahoma State- Really good computer numbers, but really only a few decent wins (Sienna is borderline, Texas A&M is bubble all over, and they beat a struggling Texas team at home)
Miami (fl)- They should get to .500 in the ACC. They have some nice wins. I still think they’ll need 1 or 2 in the ACC tournament
VT- I don’t like their chances… They would be in now, but their schedule down the stretch is brutal… they almost have to beat either UNC at home or Florida State on the road. If they do either they will most like make it.
UNLV- Interesting case… they may finish as low as 5th in the Mountain West and yet they have some great wins on their resume. I think they may become mute because their conference tourney is in Vegas and I would bet on them.
Providence- I think they need to either beat Villanova or make the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament
Kentucky- A loss to Florida puts them firmly on the bubble. UK has some solid wins and the sweep of UT may help, but they have lost to some bad teams.
Michigan- Their great wins make them hard to ignore, but if they lose to Minnesota I think they are out.
Cincinnati- I am getting more and more confident that winning out and getting to the Big East quarterfinals will get UC in. A lot depends on what other teams do, but looking at what some others have left I still think we may be dancing. The other thing that would help tremendously is if UC gets those wins they’ll be 8-4 down the stretch…significantly better than most of their competition for bids.
Penn State- They have nothing out of conference but a lot in conference. If they win 1 of 2 I think they are in pretty good shape.
South Carolina- Killer loss to Vandy. They may need to beat Tennessee to get in.

Resume’s start getting weaker here.

Florida- Incredibly weak resume. If they lose to Kentucky they are done baring a run to the SEC tournament finals. A win against Kentucky keeps them alive.
Creighton- Hopefully they will just win the Missouri Valley tournament…but short of that they may need a run to the finals.
San Diego State- I think they are outside looking in, with little chance to play their way up. They have to win their last two (one is against UNLV) to have a shot.
Maryland- They have two great wins and not much else. I think they may have to beat Wake Forest or make a deep ACC run.
Georgetown- Great wins keep them in it, but they have to make a deep run in the Big East. I don’t know what to think about them… you don’t want them to steal a bid from UC, but it would be difficult to leave out a UC team that beat Georgetown twice if they made the tourney. All of a sudden that would give Cincinnati tourney wins over WVU, UNLV, two over Georgetown and maybe one in the Big East tournament. That would be a damn good resume.
Rhode Island- Probably needs to win out and beat X or Dayton again in the A10 tournament.
Minnesota- I think they are done. I think they need to sweep this week and I don’t see it.
Notre Dame- Has a lot of work left to do in the Big East tournament
Kansas State- they are a long shot and need a deep run at this point.

Judging by all of this I think the top 11 has being in better shape than the bottom 9…I guess we will wait and see. But of that top 11 right now there are 9 spots available ( I know someone like Lunardi has UC in their next four out, which may be true today, but I think Florida is hurting, I think SD State is hurting, I think Maryland must beat Wake… just judging by what is going to happen the rest of the year I still like where we are). As I said I do not think the 9 spots hold up, but I like our chances of getting one. Not all those teams up there are going to remain down the stretch. If UC takes care of business until the Big East quarterfinals and plays a good game in the quarters I would bet on them getting in. By then the sting of Syracuse will be long forgotten.

Bearcats Should Still Have NCAA Tournament Aspirations

2009-01-28T08:36:00.001-08:00

The Power of Positive Thinking

There are eleven games left in the basketball season and the Bearcats have officially matched their win total from last season. At this point it is really hard to project how the rest of the season will go so I am not going to even try. Last season the Bearcats got their 13^th win on February 20 and then went on to lose 7 more times without picking up a win. This team is considerably better than that one so I expect the season to go better this time around. Instead of projecting I want to look at what the Bearcats need to do to make the NCAA Tournament.

Many of you may be thinking that the NCAA tournament is out of reach this season, but we are the University of Cincinnati and the NCAA tournament is exactly where our eyes should be fixed. I think there are a lot of misnomers about what the selection committee looks for in terms of NCAA tournament teams so let’s get out the myths right away.

1. The Selection Committee does not factor in conference affiliation. Playing in a better conference helps insofar as you have opportunities for more quality wins and play a better strength of schedule, but the committee does not count the number of teams in each conference when they are selecting the teams.

2. RPI is purely a grouping mechanism. It is used to get a feel for home many quality wins a team has. In the end it is supposed to come down to the most deserving teams based on their body of work you will see teams with lower RPIs ahead of teams with higher RPIs all the time.

3. The other polls do not matter one bit. The committee does not look at them at all. They discuss the teams, who they have beat and what they thought when they saw them play. In fact when you start looking at seeding you notice how little it really reflects the polls (though the polls generally get the top seeds close to right).

With all that said it is time to take a evaluate the Bearcats to date in much the same way the committee will do come March. As of right now the Bearcats sit at 59 in the RPI . This is not important in and of itself, what is important is who they beat and who they lost to. Five of Cincinnati’s seven losses are to teams in the RPI top 25. Those losses are not really hurting the Bearcats. The Bearcats other two losses are to Providence a team ranked 65 in today’s RPI. These are the losses I worry about come Selection Sunday. Providence beating Cincinnati twice would clearly get the nod if both were sitting on the bubble (though there is always the possibility both could get in).

The Bearcats have 3 solid wins to their credit. UNLV and UAB are both currently sitting in the top 50 RPI (43 and 45 respectively). The UNLV win could loom particularly large for the Bearcats because it will be a road win against a team that likely is going to finish on the good side of the bubble. Mississippi State has a lower RPI but if they could somehow win the SEC west that could help the Bearcats. Both UAB and Mississippi State are likely to be sitting on the wrong side of the bubble come selection Sunday (admittedly there is a lot of basketball to be played).

So the basic numbers you need to know about the Bearcats right now are:

They are 0-5 against the RPI top 25

2-0 against RPI 26-50

1-2 against RPI 50-100 (both losses to Providence)

2-0 against 101-150

And 7-0 against sub 150 RPI teams (This is another issue that hurts the Bearcats. The committee does not look positively when more than half of your nonconference wins are against teams with sub 150 RPIs. It should also be noted that the Bearcats only have 12 victories according to how the committee will evaluate because one of their wins was against a team not factored in the RPIs. )

All in all the Bearcats are not in bad shape right now, but they are going to have to play significantly better basketball to make the Big Dance. I still think losing to Providence twice could loom large, but looking at the rest of the schedule the Bearcats have plenty of opportunities to play their way into the dance. I have bolded some games that are as close to must win games as you can have (they are St John’s @South Florida, and Seton Hall). For the Bearcats to be an NCAA team they almost certainly have to win those games. I think 4-4 in the other 8 games will get the Bearcats into the NCAA tournament. That would put the Bearcats 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big East. I think at 3-5 in those 8 games the Bearcats would be left with some work to do in the Big East tournament, but could play their way in with a run to the semi-finals (which would likely include winning 3 games).

January 28 No. 23 Georgetown7:30 PM ET

February 1 at No. 21 Villanova12:00 PM ET

February 4 No. 22 Notre Dame7:30 PM ET

February 7 at No. 23 Georgetown12:00 PM ET

February 11 St. John's7:30 PM ET

February 14 at No. 3 Pittsburgh4:00 PM ET

February 21 No. 7 Louisville2:00 PM ET

February 26 West Virginia7:00 PM ET

March 1 at No. 15 Syracuse2:00 PM ET

March 3 at South Florida7:00 PM ET

March 7 Seton Hall12:00 PM ET

The question then becomes: Where do those wins comes from? The two key four game stretches are Georgetown/Villanova/Notre Dame/Georgetown, and Pittsburgh/Louisville/West Virginia/Syracuse… at least on paper the later looks significantly harder. If the Bearcats can somehow manage to go 3-1 in the next four games it will be time for Bearcat fans to get excited. That is no doubt a tall order, but one that could really pay of huge. If the Bearcats go 2-2 the next four games I think things start to look a little more bleak, but there will still be hope. If the Bearcats go 1-3 I think you can close the door on an NCAA bid.

So let’s say the Bearcats win the next three games before losing to Georgetown on the road. They then manage to spoil Huggy Bear’s homecoming and take out the Mountaineers. That would like give the Bearcats 5-6 top 50 RPI wins with two of those wins possibly being top 25 wins. It would give the Bearcats 20 wins and a winning record in the toughest conference in the nation. That is an NCAA tournament profile.

All in all we are not in terrible shape. The chance will be there to play our way into the tournament over the course of the next few weeks. It is going to take significant improvement. It is going to take big time efforts night in and night out, but it is very possible. The next four games are enormous for this team. By the time they are through it we may start getting a pretty good idea of where the Bearcats are heading come March.

Can Anyone Run the Table?

2008-10-12T15:53:00.000-07:00

It has been a few weeks since I gave a top 25 write-up. Since that time there have been numerous upsets. We have seen USC, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, South Florida and many other teams falter. As of right now no more than 3 BCS conference teams will run the table (and really I think Penn State is the only team with a good shot at doing so). This is shaping up to be a college football season very similar to last season For a hypothetical what happens if everyone has two losses except and unbeaten Penn State and an unbeaten BYU? Does BYU get a shot at the National Title? Will that scenario convince the major conference that a playoff is indeed necessary?

Texas- If you beat number one you have probably earned your spot at the top of the rankings. Colt McCoy should be the early Heisman trophy favorite. Yesterday against Oklahoma he completed 80 percent of his passes, took care of the football and rallied the Long Horns from 11 down. I do not think Texas can make it through a very difficult upcoming stretch unscathed. I think eventually their suspect passing defense will catch up to them, but this team has to be the favorite to win the Big 12 South Right now and could definitely be in the National Title.
Alabama- They may have a more complete resume than Texas at this point in the season. The Crimson Tide defense has been absolutely killing opponents this season. The more I look at Alabama’s schedule the more I think they could make it to the SEC Championship without a loss. Every week is tough in the SEC, no doubt about that, but I am not sure the SEC is as dominant as we all thought it was going to be. Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State are all games the Tide should win. Next week against a pesky Ole Miss is a big test and then there is the trip down to LSU on November 8. I still do not Alabama will run the table, but their schedule really does set up nicely for them down the stretch.
Penn State- Is Penn State the third best team in the country? I do not know. I do think Penn State is the major conference team most likely to run the table a reach the National Title game. The game at Ohio State in two weeks promises to be enormous and likely will decide the Big Ten. I know Penn State has had problems beating Michigan in recent years, but something tells me that game is going to get ugly next week. Penn State was incredibly impressive against Oregon State and Wisconsin and looked very impressive against Illinois as well. If Penn State runs the table and makes the National Title game it will be well earned.
Oklahoma- I still think they are the best of the 1 loss teams and probably the best team in the country, but they were exposed some against Texas. I know they were banged up on defense, but the Sooners have looked suspect against good passing attacks this year. In a conference with so many potent passing offenses that could be a cause for concern. The other area where Oklahoma has struggled this season is kickoff coverage. This loomed large yesterday as Texas really started to change the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. The loss to Texas pretty much takes their destiny out of their hands.
USC- The Trojan defense has been a force since the Oregon State loss. They put on a clinic yesterday. In a very down Pac Ten conference the Trojans are in prime position to run the table. They could be playing for a national title before it is all said and done.
Florida- Perhaps the most impressive team yesterday was the Florida Gators. Their offense made a very good LSU defense look stupid. I think Florida’s offense separates them from the rest of the SEC. If Florida plays like they did yesterday they are going to be tough to beat.
Georgia- The Bulldogs were not very impressive against Tennessee yesterday. They will need to play better the rest of the way if they are going to win the SEC East.
Oklahoma State- Probably the biggest jumpers seeing as I had not ranked them in any polls I have done this season. Oklahoma State is unbeaten and that road win against Missouri is about as good a win as a team can get. The most impressive thing about that game was the way their defense forced the brilliant Tiger offense into so many bad plays (and held Missouri to their first 3 and out of the season). They are going to have to do more to stay up here, but at 6-0 with a win on the road against Missouri they have earned a top ten spot.
Texas Tech- Here is where I am starting to have some trouble grouping teams. Texas Tech was not that impressive against Nebraska yesterday, but for the most part I like this Red Raider team. They play better defense than they have in the past (not saying too much) and that offense is going to light people up week after week. They play Texas A&M before getting games against Kansas and Texas. After that three game stretch we will know much more.
Ohio State- I flat out have not been impressed with Ohio State in any game this season and yet I still have them at number 10 because they always find a way to win games. Their defense had a great performance yesterday, but the Buckeye offense is far from potent. Still, with the game against Penn State at home I think Ohio State is going to have another shot at a Big Ten title.
Missouri- In the end they may be better than both Ohio State and Texas Tech, but I do not trust their defense. Until this week their offense had just been abusing teams. My biggest issue with Missouri is if an opposing defense can slow down their offense at all, Missouri is very vulnerable.
LSU- I am not very confident in either of their quarterbacks. The defense got abused by the Florida Gators yesterday, but I think that probably has more to do with that Gator offense finally clicking than the LSU defense. Bottom line, LSU is good enough to beat some people, maybe good enough to win the west, but they have too many weaknesses to be considered an elite team.
BYU- The Cougars are a team I struggle to rank. They have looked impressive enough week in and week out for me to put them around 13, but I do not think I can rank them much higher unless they really look great against the likes of TCU and Utah. I would love to see what they can do against top notch competition (and good for them they will go to a BCS bowl if they keep taking care of business)
South Florida- Their banged up defense struggled to stop the Pittsburgh running game. They still have great balance on offense and can really get after the quarterback on defense. I think their win over Kansas is a very good win and I think they have been impressive throughout the season.
Michigan State- They are just a solid football team. They run the ball and play very good defense. Fifteen might end up being a little high for them, but with solid wins over Notre Dame and Northwestern this seems reasonable.
North Carolina- The Tarheels got another big win this time against Notre Dame. Their defense continues to make plays. Butch Davis has to be a favorite for coach of the year.
Virginia Tech- They have been an entirely different team with Taylor at the quarterback position. They have not been overly impressive but keep finding ways to win games. Another BCS bid and an ACC championship are very much in reach.
Kansas- Kansas has won the games they need to win. They were impressive in the second half against Colorado. They have a hungry Oklahoma team this week followed by a date with Texas Tech…these are the regular season tests Kansas seemingly avoided last season and will tell us a lot.
Cincinnati- Six games, 4 different quarterbacks have seen the field. The Bearcats have continued to take care of business. This is the most talented team I can remember at UC and they have continued to battle through adversity. The Bearcats get to the bye and now have an extra week to get healthy before heading to UCONN. Tony Pike should be back to lead the cats into battle. The Bearcats still have the best receivers in the conference, they have a solid offensive line, and the running game has started to get going. The Bearcat defense has started to really put pressure on opposing teams and UC certainly has no shortage of playmakers in the secondary. All that combined with special teams units that are second to none and this Bearcat team is more likely to move up than go down.
Boise State- Their BCS fate likely hinges on Utah and BYU both losing, but the Broncos are once again having a special season.
Utah- We are getting closer and closer to an undefeated battle between Utah and BYU with a conference title and BCS bid on the line. Either will be a well deserved representative from the Mountain West Conference which has certainly looked like a BCS caliber league this season.
Wake Forest- I may be judging Wake Forest too harshly for their loss to Navy. Their other wins are certainly noteworthy. They have already beaten the preseason conference favorite and seem to have the upper hand in the ACC Atlantic.
Pittsburgh- I do not trust Pittsburgh, but if they play to their talent level they are definitely a top 25 team. They still have yet to demonstrate the consistency I think will be necessary for winning the Big East.
California- They have a really bad loss to Maryland and a really good win over Michigan State. I think they are the clear number two in the Pac Ten at this point, but at this point I am not sure how impressive being number two in the Pac ten is.
Ball State- I will give the class of the MAC some love. They have looked impressive and I do not particularly like my other options for this spot.

Best of the Rest (in no order): Tulsa, Florida State, Boston College, Tulsa, Notre Dame, Oregon, Vanderbilt

Big East Still Lacking Respect

2008-10-07T10:08:00.001-07:00

In the college football world perception means far more than reality. As of this week the Big East Conference is down to 1 ranked team in the Coaches poll and 2 ranked teams in the AP poll. The perception is that the Big East is down and that there are not any really good teams in the conference. As a fan of the Big East there have been some disappointments this season. West Virginia has been the bellwether program for the conference, but they have started off slow under the new regime. Rutgers has fallen about as far as a program could fall in two seasons going from Big East contender in 2006 to a team that has yet to beat a single 1A opponent in 2008. With the sudden drop of these two programs and Louisville’s fall last season the general view is that the Big East is down ranks last when compared to the other BCS conferences. When one takes the time to examine the accomplishments and failings of the Big East, ACC and Pac Ten that perception does not hold up. There really has not been a major difference in the performances of these conferences…merely the perception. In a sport dominated by polls, perception is far too often viewed as reality.

We can gain a better understanding of the perception vs. reality argument when we compare the two major BCS programs in Ohio. This season Ohio State has beaten 1AA Youngstown State while the Bearcats beat 1AA Eastern Kentucky. The Buckeyes trailed the MAC’s Ohio University in the 4th quarter before rallying to win, while the Bearcats trailed Akron in the 4th quarter before doing the same. Cincinnati thumped the Miami Redhawks at home and Ohio State got by Minnesota. Ohio State played then number 1 ranked USC on the road and the game was over by mid second quarter. The Bearcats played the currently number 1 ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Norman and let the game get away from them over a 5 minute stretch in the third quarter. Up until this past weekend these two teams had nearly identical resumes. They had not beaten anyone of any real significance and had been beaten solidly by top ten teams (In UC’s case the team currently sitting number 1 in the country). If OSU had done exactly what Cincinnati did against Cincinnati’s schedule they would have more than likely been ranked about where they are right now. However, because OSU has history and went to the national title the last two years they get more credit than a UC team that finished at number 17 last season. And in Ohio State’s case I think their ranking is fairly well earned. However, the larger point is that until last weekend’s trip to Camp Randall they had not done anything particularly impressive this season and their ranking was simply a product of perception.

I think it has been pretty obvious that the best conferences this season are the SEC and Big 12 in that order. After those two the Big 10 has looked like a solid number 3. However, among the Big East, ACC, Pac Ten and even the Mountain West it has been far harder to see a distinct difference. The Big East has two absolutely horrendous teams in Syracuse and Rutgers (well Rutgers has been so far at least). That being said the Pac Ten comes to the table with Washington, Washington State, and UCLA, another pretty awful combination of teams, while the ACC boasts Virginia, Duke and North Carolina State. The bottom of all three conferences...well, no world beaters among that group.

These conferences are pretty similar among there top 70-75 percent (That’s top 7 for the Pac Ten, top 9 for the ACC and top 6 for the Big East). The top 6 teams in the Big East have gone 23-8 winning 74 percent of their games. The top 9 in the ACC have gone 34-12 winning an identical 74 percent of their games. Meanwhile the top 7 (70 percent) of the Pac Ten have gone 22-14 winning only 61 percent of their games. When we look at these league records as an aggregate it is clear they have been pretty similar.

According to the AP top 25 the ACC has 3 teams ranked (Virginia Tech, UNC, and Wake Forest), the Big East has 2 teams ranked (South Florida and Pittsburgh) and the Pac Ten has 1 team ranked (USC). Of these teams South Florida, UNC, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh all have pretty compelling cases for their rankings. Pittsburgh has a bad loss but they have beaten Iowa and have a road win over USF. The Bulls have taken down Kansas, Central Florida, and pounded NC State. North Carolina probably should have beaten Virginia Tech but has big victories over Rutgers and UCONN to go with a win over the Miami Hurricanes. Virginia Tech has beaten Georgia Tech, UNC and Nebraska with their 1 loss coming to East Carolina. I have a harder time justifying Wake Forest’s ranking because of their loss to Navy, but they too have some meat on their schedule so far.

Each one of these conferences has some good non-conference wins over BCS opponents. The best wins for the Big East Conference to date are over Kansas, Iowa, NC State, Virginia, Kansas State and Baylor. The Best Wins for the ACC are over Mississippi, UCONN, Cal, Colorado, and Rutgers. The Best wins for the Pac ten are Ohio State and Virginia (both by USC), Tennessee (by an awful UCLA team), Purdue and Michigan State.

Ignoring the bottom teams I already mentioned in these conferences lets examine who the non-conference losses are to in each league. The Big East has lost to UNC, Oklahoma, Kentucky, East Carolina and Colorado. The one really bad loss for the top teams in the league was Pitt losing to Bowling Green. The ACC has losses to Alabama, South Florida, Florida, USC to go with bad losses to Navy and Middle Tennessee State. The Pac Ten has losses to BYU, Fresno State, UNLV, New Mexico, Maryland, TCU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia and Utah. In reality the Pac Ten has more questionable losses than the ACC or Big East. Really the only team who has carried the torch for the Pac Ten is USC.

Despite 3 straight BCS bowl wins over the SEC champ, the ACC champ and the Big 12 champ; despite an 8-2 record the last two seasons in bowl games; despite regular season victories this season and last over Auburn, Oregon State, Kansas, Virginia, Kansas State, and Maryland among others the Big East is still not perceived like the other leagues. The slip-ups by Big East teams get viewed in a more negative light than those of ACC and Pac Ten teams. The recent accomplishments of Big East teams are quickly dismissed or forgotten. In reality no team in the Big East has yet to really show they are a top notch team, though there are some teams that have the potential to be there by seasons end (South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and I would never rule out WVU). Though there is not that clear top team, the league is still solid and has been every bit the conference the Pac Ten and ACC have been this season.

People keep asking the question of whether or not the Big East can win a BCS bowl (the same question was asked the last three years and answered the same way each time…yes). The Big East has plenty of good teams, whether it is recognized nationally or not. I would bet the farm that if you put BYU, Boise State, or Utah in this conference they would lose 2 or 3 games. There is plenty of talent on the field every week. In the battle to gain consistent respect and positive perception among the college football elite the Big East is not their yet. Despite that the product on the field has been, is, and will continue to be fine. The Big East will have another solid year, another solid Bowl Season, and may even win another BCS Bowl. So much of college football is perception based and not reality based…to me the perception that the Big East is down this season continues to be overblown. The Big East had done plenty to establish themselves as a solid BCS conference and by seasons end there will be plenty of accomplished teams carrying the torch for the Big East Conference.

A Cub Fan Refuses to Give Up Hope

2008-10-03T11:13:00.001-07:00

That was the second inning from hell. I guess the Cubs defense was only credited with two errors (I thought Theriot should have had one as well). Big Z got not 1, not 2, but three double play balls that the Cubs infielders promptly coughed up and turned into ZERO outs. Think about that for a minute… They Cubs left 6 outs on the table. Carlos Zambrano basically was asked to get three innings worth of outs in one inning. When I think about how badly that inning went it makes me sick. Those are plays the Cubs infielders have made all year. The Cubs ranked second in defense this season… they consistently played great baseball and yet in that one instance it all fell apart. You cannot give any team 1 extra out, much less 6.

Looking back I was proud of the way Z handled himself that inning. So much went wrong he could have lost it. Sure he ended up giving up the big bases loaded double to Martin, but the man had already been out there far too long. When he left the Wrigley fans gave him a well deserved standing ovation... Z brought it last night when no one else did. I hope I get the chance to see Z pitch again this season.

As last night closed Cubs fans were heartbroken, viewing their season as being over. But here is the thing about baseball that is so easy forget through all the heartbreak the Cubs have inflicted…momentum can easily get stopped by a great pitcher. On Saturday the Cubs are sending out their most dominating pitcher to try to save the season in LA. Harden has been nearly unhittable at his best this season. He is rested and he is ready to go.

When the Red Sox were down 3-0 against the Yankees in 2004 it appeared that their season was over. At that point you just have to go out and play the next game. If anyone had the choice of having Rich Harden or Hiroki Kuroda to start a playoff game for them who do you think the choice would be? This is a game that a fan would look at as one the Cubs are most likely to win in any other circumstance. So lets get this one and then worry about the next one.

The biggest difference between this Cubs team and last years Cubs team is the depth of their rotation. The Cubs are not putting Rich Hill on the mound with their season on the line, they are putting Rich Harden. If Rich gets through that game the Cubs will not be trying to run Z on short rest, they will be giving the ball to a rested Ted Lily to face a Dodger Lineup that thrives on left handed bats. If Rich Harden can do what aces do he can stop the momentum and start getting it back the other way. The Cubs just need to relax. No one expects them to win now, so go do it.

This Cubs team has battled all season. They have come back from 8 runs down to beat the Rockies, they’ve had a 2 out ninth inning rally to beat Brewers, they’ve had multiple 5+ game winning streaks…they can do this. Their backs are against the wall, they are down, but they are not out. If this series ever gets back to Chicago the pressure is going to be on the Dodgers just as much as it is on the Cubs. I want to close with wisdom from the great Andy Duphrane:
“Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.” Have hope Cubs fans…I for one have not given up yet.

How the Big East Will Play Out

2008-09-25T20:32:00.000-07:00

This has not exactly been a picture perfect season for the Big East Conference. Louisville started the year getting killed by Kentucky, Rutgers and Syracuse cannot beat anyone, Pitt lost at home to a MAC team, Cincinnati lost by 26 to Oklahoma, and perennially Big East power West Virginia has already lost twice. Still Louisville seemed to turn the corner last week in taking care of Kansas State, Cincinnati got great play from quarterback Tony Pike against Miami Ohio, Pitt took care of unbeaten Iowa, Connecticut remains unbeaten and South Florida has already taken care of Kansas and Central Florida. In reality the Big East has been no more down than the ACC or the Pac Ten. Still the question that looms as Big East conference play begins Friday night is: What do we expect from the conference the rest of the way?

I look back at my preseason projections and realize…wow was I wrong about two teams. West Virginia has not played anywhere close to the level they played the last two seasons and Rutgers has fallen completely off of the map. At the same time, much of the Big East has gone as one could have expected: Pitt looks improved from last year, but certainly not at the crazy level that made “experts” pick them to win the Big East and make a BCS bowl. UConn has been the steady team they were all last year…winning their close games. South Florida and Syracuse have picked up right where they left off (one team is happier than the other about that). And the Bearcats have given us no reason to think they cannot be better than last season. So as Louisville and Connecticut get set to open Big East play Friday night I want to take the time to revisit the Big East, ranking them largely based on what they have shown so far this season and dissecting their best and worst case scenarios.

Cincinnati

Best Case Scenario- Tony Pike continues to be the answer at quarterback and runs up the score the next three weeks against Akron, Marshall and Rutgers. The defensive line gains valuable experience and begins to get consistent pressure on the quarterback giving the back of the defense more opportunities to make plays. The Bearcat corners begin forcing turnovers in bunches, making them one of the better defenses in the country. The Bearcats then start their defining three game stretch of the season with another dominating performance at Connecticut. That sets up a Thursday night, nationally televised game against a top ten South Florida Bulls team. The Bearcats look like the better team all game and win by two touchdowns. They take care of business the rest of the way, running through the conference to a 12-1 regular season.

Worst Case Scenario- Tony Pike continues to look good until conference play begins and the pressure heats up. He struggles against the defenses of Uconn, South Florida and West Virginia. The defensive line continues to be a weak spot for the Bearcat defense and as a result the secondary gets exposed underneath game in and game out. The Bearcats have enough talent on both sides of the football to win games, but they finish 4-3 in the conference (9-4 overall) and head back to Birmingham for a second straight season.

My Forecast- I think Tony Pike continues to play well and use the great talent he has all around him. I think the defensive line gets better throughout the year (though never gets the consistent pass rush that Hoke and Craig were able to get). The Bearcats run the table at Nippert, including big wins over USF and Pitt, but lose a road game either at WVU or at Louisville. The Bearcats make their first ever BCS bowl at 11-2 (6-1 in the Big East).

South Florida

Best Case Scenario- South Florida avoids the inconsistency that killed them last season and has shown its face at times in games against Kansas, UCF, and Florida Internationally this season. Matt Grothe wins the conference player of the year and George Selvie wins the defensive player of the year. South Florida sweeps their home schedule. They go into Cincinnati for that huge Thursday night game and beat the Bearcats moving the Bulls to the brink of the top 5. The Bulls eventually lose one, but win the conference and make their first ever BCS bowl game.

Worst Case Scenario- South Florida slips up before conference play and loses a road game at North Carolina State. Road games at Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia prove to be a tough hill to climb. The Bulls lose two of those and a home game to Uconn or Pitt to finish 8-4 (4-3) in the Big East.

My Forecast- I think South Florida and Cincinnati are pretty equal in terms of how good they are. However, I think the Bearcats are more dynamic offensively and ultimately more consistent. Grothe keeps the Bulls rolling up until they face Louisville. I think the Louisville game will be a fight with the Bulls ultimately coming out on top. Their reward will be a game 5 days later against a Cincinnati Bearcat team coming off a bye week, at Nippert on national television. I think the Bulls lose that game, beat Rutgers and then lose one more to either Uconn or WVU to finish the season 10-2 (5-2 in the Big East).

Louisville

Best Case Scenario- The Cardinals really have turned the corner since that debacle against Kentucky. Hunter Cantwell shows the promise everyone saw in him when he stepped in for an injured Brian Brohm, while victor Anderson becomes the talk of the Big East as running back. The defense, which seems much improved, continues to play well and limits some really good offenses. Louisville takes advantage of a great schedule which brings Uconn, South Florida, Cincinnati and West Virginia to Papa Johns to go 5-2 in the Big East and tie for a conference championship.

Worst Case Scenario- Kansas State was not very good and the Kentucky game was a better gauge for this Louisville team. The Cardinals revert to their awful play of last season and get swept at home in Big East play. Louisville fans call for Kragthrope’s head and start wishing for the days of Bobby Petrino. After a last place finish in the SEC west at Arkansas Petrino tells everyone that he is not interested in taking the Louisville job, but quietly begins talking to boosters. The boosters convince Jurich to take the Big East commissioner job then hire a new AD who gives Petrino his second chance in Louisville for a ton of money.

My Forecast- Louisville does begin to turn the corner, but still remains a relatively inconsistent team. They beat Uconn in a tough game Friday night to keep the momentum going. They are competitive in all their games, but ultimately lose 3 in the conference to finish 4-3.

4. Connecticut

Best Case Scenario- The Huskies continue to win close game after close game and show that last year’s co-championship was not a fluke. Big East fans on every message board are forced to eat crow. The Huskies take care of business in their next three including wins @ Louisville and @ North Carolina. They lose a tough game at South Florida and one home game to either Cincinnati, Pitt or West Virginia to finish 10-2 and 5-2 in the conference for another share of the conference title. They end up sharing the conference title with one of the teams they beat and represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario- The breaks just do not go their way this season. Louisville goes out and wins by two scores starting a streak where the Huskies lose 4 of their next 5 games and 6 of their last 8 to finish 6-6. Uconn does not get invited to a bowl game…every message board non-husky fan is vindicated.

My forecast- Behind good coaching and a strong defense Uconn continues to be a solid big east team. They do, however, come back to earth. I think the Huskies lose 4 the rest of the way, one of those could be to North Carolina. I think they finish 8-4 and either 4-3 or 3-4 in the Big East.

5. Pittsburgh

Best Case Scenario- Pittsburgh’s boring style of play works. Their running game is incredibly successful and helps the Panthers dominate the clock in Big East play. Pitt sweeps their home slate and loses two on the road (and also beats Notre Dame) to finish 9-3 and 5-2 in the Big East. Panther fans still think that Pitt underachieved as Pitt finishes behind Cincinnati or South Florida and does get to play in a BCS game. Dave Wannstedt gets another year and the stupid preseason polls pick Pitt to finish in the top 5.

Worst Case Scenario- Pitt is still a reflection of the 5-7 team from a season ago. They get swept in their conference road games, lose at Notre Dame and lose one to Rutgers or Syracuse. At 6-6 the Panthers once again do not get invited to a bowl game. The 7 football fans in Pittsburgh who do not just care about the Steelers make 7000 different fire Wannstedt websites and spend the next 20 days posting messages on them from different people every ten minutes. It is still 50/50 on whether Wannstedt keeps his job, but either way ESPN picks them to win the Big East the following season.

My Forecast- Pitt is better this year, but still not good enough to compete for a Big East title. They go 4-3 or 3-4 in the league, they beat Notre Dame and they get to go bowling for the first time in the Wannstedt era.

6. West Virginia

Best Case Scenario- The Mountaineers have been merely adjusting to a different style of play and it has taken some time for them to get it together. As Big East play starts all of a sudden it clicks…they get it. West Virginia’s offense becomes the unstoppable force they have been in the past. They run through the Big East taking advantage of a great schedule, go unbeaten, and inflict another beating on a BCS conference champion in a BCS Bowl (this time from the Big Ten or Pac 10).

Worst Case Scenario- West Virginia decides they should not have hired Bill Stewart. The offense continues to struggle and the defense, well, other than last year they were never that good. West Virginia has their first losing season in Big East play. Fans have a large impromptu carwash to buyout Bill Stewart’s contract. They do not raise nearly enough money.

My Forecast- I do not have the slightest idea. West Virginia is the biggest wildcard in the conference. You would think they have far too much talent to just fade into oblivion, but they certainly have not given us any reason to have any confidence in them this year. This is the team that scares me the most as a Bearcat fan… but really my fears could be foolish. I guess we will find out.

7. Rutgers

Best Case Scenario- Mike Teel is benched for someone, anyone. That someone actually puts the ball in the end-zone instead of wasting their talented receivers. Rutgers wins a few games, goes 3-4 in the conference, misses out on a bowl but shows some talent for next year.

Worst Case Scenario- November 9 becomes the official battle for last place in the Big East conference. Syracuse comes into Piscataway and intercepts Mike Teel 5 times. The Orangemen get out of town with a win avoiding another last place season. Greg Schiano’s name does not come up in the off-season for any new head coaching jobs.

My Forecast- Rutgers beats Syracuse and one other team to get two Big East wins.

8. Syracuse

Best Case Scenario- Syracuse beats Rutgers to get to one win in the conference.

Worst Case Scenario- Syracuse goes winless in the Big East.

My Forecast- Syracuse goes winless in the Big East…someone else is coaching the Orange next season.

Miami Fans Break Down the Cincinnati Bearcats

2008-09-24T07:29:00.000-07:00

It could be a long time before the Miami Redhawks beat the Cincinnati Bearcats again. The Bearcats have now taken three straight from their one time bitter rivals, looking pretty dominant during the last two meeting. I was interested in seeing how the Miami fans were taking the game so I scoured the internet for fan interest. Lucky for me I found a little know Miami Redhawks fan site called www.iwearthreeshirtsandlotsofhairgeltothebar.com where Miami fans had discussed the action before and after the game. I thought I would their thoughts with a wider Bearcat audience.

Right Before Kickoff:

Muredhawk27: Alright everyone, kickoff is in a few minutes. Any predictions?
Poppinmycollar: Well, last year was bad for us, but UC does not have Mauk anymore. We will not let that happen again. Plus Michigan and Vandy are both better than UC. I think we can win.
Muredhawk27: I think you’re right. We need to shove it Brian Kelly’s face. We have a 13 game lead in this series and Kelly thinks they are better than us. What a crappy program.
Poppinmycollar: Good point. Yea, we missed a great chance last year to make Kelly regret those words. You know we will be pumped up this year.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: We are every bit as good as the Bearcats. We out-recruit them every year. We have just as talented of players. It all comes down to coaching.
Firemonty: Monty sucks, but this will still be a better game. The Bearcats gave up freaking 52 points last week and are playing a QB who has never played a down. You know they will struggle.

Right After Kickoff:

Poppinmycollar: Great start. We kick it short to avoid a runback and give them great field position, just great.
Firemonty: Awful move. Our coach should be fired. He is no Randy Walker, he is no Terry Hoeppner. We are Miami, we always have great coaches. Why wouldn’t you just kick to whoever UC’s crappy return guy is?
Reasonableredhawk: Well their “crappy” return guy set an all purpose yards record against Oklahoma last week. That may have something to do with it.
Poppingmycollar: Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Three and out, held UC to three. See their offense is really going to struggle this week. We gave Michigan all they can handle and if Michigan cannot move the ball on Miami, no way Cincinnati can.

After Bearcats go up 10-0:

Reasonableredhawk: Well that was too easy.
Poppinmycollar: We gave up one big play. UC is not going to be able to sustain drives against us. We just have to take that away.
Firemonty: Just terrible defensive play calling. Someone should fire Monty already.

Redhawks drive deep into Bearcat territory down 10-0:

Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: I told you they could not stop our offense. We are about to get 6. This is all of a sudden a game.
Reasonableredhawk: Do not speak too soon we still have to convert.

Bearcats hold Redhawks to three:

Firemonty: Of course, the play calling gets awful when we get in the red zone. Be aggressive, spread the Bearcats out.
Bearcats score another touchdown to go up 17-3:
Reasonableredhawk: I think the Bearcats are probably just a lot better than us. We cannot stop them. That was a great catch by Marty Gilyard.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: We have just as much talent. We just stalled in the red zone earlier and their guy made a nice play.
Firemonty: They are not better, we are just getting outcoached.

Redhawks score after two awful pass interference penalties:

Reasonableredhawk: Well we got two big breaks there.
Firemonty: UC was all over those receivers
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: The Cincinnati corners simply cannot keep up with our receivers. Big touchdown by the offense.

Bearcats go into half time up 24 to 13

Poppinmycollar: Well, we get the ball to start the second half. The offense has looked really good let’s see what we can do.
Reasonableredhawk: Yea we are still in the game. We got a few breaks with the Bearcats committing some really bad penalties and having some tough calls against them. I was glad to see the offense take advantage. We still have not been able to stop the Bearcats, they have not punted yet.
Firemonty: We get the ball to start the second half. It will be nice if Montgomery does not screw it up.

Miami cuts the lead to 24-20

Poppinmycollar: Yes!
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: I told you we were as talented as them.
Reasonableredhawk: Ok we cannot give up anything big on the kickoff.
Firemonty: ONSIDE KICK!
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Now that was a gutsy move!
Reasonableredhawk: Great decision, our defense has not been able to stop that Bearcat offense all game. Pike has looked like Peyton Manning out there. Let’s get some points.

Mickens returns the interception for a touchdown

Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Who was he throwing to?
Poppinmycollar: If we lose this game because of that play I am going to flip out.
Firemonty: I am sure it was Shane Montgomery’s fault. We have just as good of players.

UC scores another TD to go up 38-20

Reasonableredhawk: Well this game is getting out of hand quickly.

Game ends with 45-20 UC win

Poppinmycollar: Remember when we used to beat the Bearcats?
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: This is embarrassing. Two straight seasons of just getting killed by the Bearcats, three straight losses.
Poppinmycollar: I think this may be how it is going to be for a while. Wow.
Firemonty: It will be like this until we fire Monty. Jeez, we were every bit as talented as the Bearcats, but they just have better coaching.
Reasonableredhawk: Were you watching the same game? We did not have the athletes to keep up with their depth at wide receiver. Their offensive line moved our defense all game long. They were faster across the board, both on defense and on offense. We did a good job not letting them get pressure on our quarterback, but other than that they were simply a better team. We needed some breaks to make it this close.
Poppinmycollar: Brian Kelly pissed a lot of us off two years ago, but he has backed it up both times he has played us. We simply are not in Cincinnati’s league anymore.
Reasonableredhawk: Nothing to be ashamed of. We can still compete for MAC titles, but the athletic ability of the Bearcats is just above our level.
Firemonty: No man… we can win. We are Miami… Just fire Monty.

My Thoughts:

Last season when Brian Kelly declared that UC playing Miami home and home may not be what a program of Cincinnati’s stature should do there was a large outcry from the Miami population. I went up for the game and talked to a number of students who had little faith in the Bearcat football program and still believed that Miami was every bit as good of a program as Cincinnati. I think the last two seasons have shown that the programs are going in entirely different directions. For the most part the Bearcats are in an entirely different league than the Redhawks. I have even noticed some Miami fans starting to acknowledge the clear separation.

I believed from day 1 that Kelly’s comments had little to do with trying to insult Miami or belittle the rivalry and far more to do with getting Bearcat fans and local media to start viewing the Cincinnati program as the BCS program that it is. Cincinnati has an opportunity to play in a BCS bowl each and every year. We are clearly the number 2 program in a very talent rich state (and yes I say number 2 because at this point the Buckeyes are more established). Kelly’s comments were there to get people talking and get people thinking about what the Bearcat program can become.
UC’s dominance over Miami the last two seasons reinforces how far the Bearcats have come since joining the Big East. Gone are the days when Miami and UC would battle it out year after year. That simply is not going to happen anymore. I hope UC and Miami continue to play. If we continue to play year in and year out there will be seasons where Miami is up or UC is down where the Bearcats could lose, but they will be few and far between. If this series continues the Bearcats are going to eventually catch Miami in the overall series and the rivalry will start to lose some significance, but I cannot foresee beating Miami as ever getting old.

As the Battle for the Victory Bell continues I see it playing out more as a tune-up game than anything else (and what a fun tune-up game it will be for that matter). UC simply has bigger and better things ahead. The dominance the Bearcats have shown over Miami the past two seasons illustrates the direction the Bearcat program is heading. We are no longer a small time college football program. We are UC. We are a program that can play in BCS bowls and eventually play for BCS championships. We are a program that will have the opportunity to recruit the best athletes and schedule the best teams. We are going to start selling out Nippert and going to eventually have to expand. Bearcat fans who have been there from the start there is no need to lament attendance, or media coverage, or not being ranked…we will get there. What the Miami game best illustrated for me is the progress we have made already towards being a big time BCS program. In the future I expect that progress to continue. Bearcat football is moving forward at a rapid pace and that is something we can all celebrate.

Boise State Back In the Top 25

2008-09-21T17:57:00.000-07:00

Bearcatmark’s week 4 top 25:

Oklahoma – Their last non-conference loss at home was to… TCU, you can bet the Sooners will be ready for this game. The loss of DeMarcus Granger should not do much to derail the Oklahoma Sooners.

USC- As I look at USC’s schedule I am trying to decide who can challenge them at all this year…it’s a tough question. The Pac Ten is down, Notre Dame is not that good; USC should be able to run the table. I think they certainly have the clearest path to the National Title.

Georgia- Good win at Arizona State. Last season the Pac Ten tried to make its case for being as good as the SEC… this season it’s not even close.

Florida- Once again the Gators proved to have Tennessee’s number. Florida started quickly and never gave Tennessee a chance to even be in the game. That is the sign of a very good team.

Missouri – Can anyone stop this offense?

Texas Tech- Or this one?

LSU- It is hard not to love Les Miles. The defending national champions got an enormous win on the road against a very game Auburn team. The Tigers get Alabama and Georgia at home this year though they still must travel to “the swamp” in three weeks. As far as the SEC goes they passed the first major test, in typical late game, Les Miles fashion.

The Badgers had a bye this week and now get @Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, @Iowa and Illinois the next five weeks. I cannot imagine them getting through that stretch of games unscathed, but you may notice they get Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois in Camp Randall. That is a huge advantage for the Badgers in the Big Ten race. I think the Badgers are very good and a top ten team. I do not think they are a BCS championship caliber team, but that schedule certainly sets up nicely.

Alabama- The Tide continue to roll on. They looked incredibly impressive this week and already made a good Clemson team look stupid. Georgia is going to have their hands full come Saturday.

Texas- The top ten continues to be dominated by the Big 12 and SEC (4 teams from each conference are there). It is really interesting reading all the articles on how the Big East, ACC and Pac Ten are down this year. In truth all three conferences have not done near as well as they would like, but I think the bigger story is just how good the top half of the Big 12 and the SEC are this year. Both of those conferences are going to be fun to watch.

Auburn- I cannot fault them much for losing a competitive game against a big time LSU team. Even in defeat Auburn showed they are a borderline top ten team this season.

Penn State- The Nittany Lions continue to look dominant. Much like with Wisconsin their next five games will tell the story of the their season, but unlike Wisconsin they have to hit the road against some really good teams. Over the next 5 games Penn State plays Illinois, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Michigan and @ Ohio State. I cannot see them making it through that stretch unbeaten.

South Florida- Though they are the highest ranked Big East team, the Bulls were sloppy this week against a bad Florida International team. They will need a better effort to beat NC State next week.

“one of the” Ohio State Universities (the one in Columbus for those of you keeping score at home) – If the Buckeyes could get steady quarterback play I would feel a lot better about them. The top of the Big 10 looks fairly solid this season, I think the Buckeyes will lose one or two more before it is all said and done.

BYU- Maybe they should be higher, I don’t know. Talk about a team that is living up to the hype. The Cougars are not beating teams they are putting Nebraska of the 1990s beating on teams. Since limping by Washington they have won 59-0 against UCLA and 44-0 over Wyoming. For BYU to get a BCS bid they will have to earn it, because in truth the Mountain west has been every bit as good as the Pac Ten, Big East and ACC this season (in fact the Mountain West stands 5-0 against the Pac Ten). Utah, TCU, UNLV, and Air Force are all tough squads. BYU is going to have plenty of chances to keep on climbing.

Kansas- Recovered from their loss to South Florida nicely against Sam Houston State, but then again they recovered against Sam Houston State. I am really anxious to see Kansas in the Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech stretch that looms in a couple of weeks. The Jayhawks made a living by beating teams they were clearly better than last season…they were very consistent. We will get a better idea of what their level actually is this season.

Illinois- Second major test of the year is this Saturday night in Happy Valley. The defense had no hope of stopping Missouri, but that probably has more to do with how good Missouri is than anything else.

Wake Forest- Lee Corso picked Florida State to win an ACC game for the 5 millionth straight time this weekend… that method has certainly failed him the last few years, but I am sure he got a lot of mileage off of it throughout the 90s. Wake Forest did not let the Seminoles do anything on Saturday. I think that along with Clemson they are the favorites to win the ACC. Wake Forest has to be one of the most well coached teams in America.

Boise State- The Broncos make their triumphant return to the top 25 this week after a big win at Oregon. Boise State controlled the game from start to finish though allowed a late Oregon rally to make the game closer. Ian Johnson is still a Bronco (I swear he has been at Boise State longer than Kevin Frey was at Xavier) and this year's Bronco’s may actually be a better passing team than two years ago when they beat Oklahoma.

Clemson- They were the pre-season ACC favorite for a reason… the talent is there. Now the consistency, that is another question entirely.

Cincinnati- 20-24! Tony Pike was sensational in his debut for the Bearcats in the least flashy of ways. Tony was just plain efficient, when a receiver was open he general hit him and hit him in stride. When on the field, the Bearcat offense was a machine against Miami. If they can get that kind of production from Tony Pike week in and week out there is no reason the Bearcats cannot win the Big East.

East Carolina- Tough loss to North Carolina State, but that’s a rivalry game on the road. They stay in the top 25 on the strength of victories over WVU and VT.

Fresno State- The second WAC team in the top 25, their win over Rutgers is not looking like that much these days, but they also gave Wisconsin all they could handle.

Utah- They have three pretty good wins against UNLV, Michigan and Air Force. That is enough to keep them in the top 25 for the time being.

Vanderbilt- A win over South Carolina and a road win against Ole Miss is good enough to get Vanderbilt in my top 25 for now. I was going to wait a week until they had played Auburn but when comparing them to the long list of toss-up teams I have for the 25^th spot I just think their wins stand out more.

The extras (Almost there but not quite…in no order)

Virginia Tech- In my first draft I had them in the top 25, but as I compared them to others I just did not think they quite held up. The win on the road against the Tarheels was very good, but I want to see a little more from this very young team before I move them forward. It is hard to know much about Virginia Tech because they lack experience.

Uconn- I think they are too one dimensional to be a real threat in the Big East. They smacked around Virginia one week and then let Baylor give them all they could handle the next. The defense is generally good, the running game is good, and they seem to always win the close ones, but I want to see them against better competition.

Ball State- They look like the class of the MAC. That offense is really good.

Michigan State- Nice with for Dantonio against the fighting Irish this weekend.

Kentucky- 3-0 with a defense that looks much better. They’ll have plenty of chances to move up.

Louisville- The Louisville team we saw against Kansas State was a completely different team from the team we saw against Kentucky. It was like night and day. Everyone knows Louisville has the talent. Their game against Uconn this week could be a big one in the Big East.