Redraft the NBA (every 10 years)

This started as a thought exercise.  If the players decided they wanted to form their own league where the players had stakes in the league so that they could keep the vast majority of the money, what could they do to maximize the value of the league?  Basically, if you were starting a league from scratch how would you make it the most fun/profitable?  It morphed into a plan for the best possible version of the NBA.  Players don’t stay at a franchise forever anymore.  They move.  Their free agency is a huge deal.  The old way of a player being forever tied to a franchise is gone.  With all that in mind here is my biggest idea for the best possible NBA: every ten years you redraft the entire league. 

                I know you’re thinking it wouldn’t work, but hear me out.  I’ve tried to work through the anticipated complaints and issues and you’ll see me address them as I go, but think about how awesome this would be.  People would be crazy for the redraft.  It would drive content.  It would get massive viewership.  TV would pay a ton for it.   It might be bigger than the games.  I've thought out the basics of how it would work and why it would be (1) awesome and (2) financially unbelievable for the players and owners.  More importantly, given the way players move around from city to city these days now seems like the perfect time for it.  Players just aren't tied to franchises like they once were.  Lets take advantage of that to make the most fun / most interesting NBA possible.  Let's Redraft the NBA every 10 seasons.

2 years before the draft:

                Our hypothetical redraft is going to take place after the 2025 season.  We have 5 years to go.  The previous five years everything was normal.  There was a salary cap, free agents, a rookie draft, etc.  This will continue to be the case for a couple more seasons.  However the second to last season before the redraft we get rid of the rookie draft.  All rookies are now free agents.  I like this because there is less value in the draft when you won’t have your rookie under contract for 3-5 years.  With the draft being devalued, why not allow rookies to sign where they feel it is the best fit.  Further, it’s something unique to change the narrative for an offseason.  I also think without a draft, they should exempt rookie salaries from the cap.  Teams can bid what they want for a rookie. 

Last Season before the Draft:

                The last season before the Redraft is UNCAPPED and there is no maximum player salary.  This is one my favorite little ideas to set up the redraft.  Big stars will be setting up their contracts to capitalize on that last season.  There could be free agent bidding wars and teams trying to spend those extra dollars at the end to steal a championship for a season.  I think there should be a provision that limits how much you can backload a contract (this will encourage free agent activity the year proceeding the redraft).  Also teams will be incentivized to win as many games possible that season (and every other season) because of my next rule.

Draft Order for the Redraft:

                The draft order for the Redraft will be determined by your record over the 10 seasons preceding the draft.  During the first 8 seasons we still have a normal rookie draft where draft order is tied to your record the opposite way (lottery with bad teams picking early), but the Redraft will reward the teams that did the most winning over the previous decade.  Record only, not titles.  There will still be some tanking incentive early in the ten years, but is it worth ruining your draft position for the Redraft?  During that final season not only will fans be tracking their team’s record for that season, but they will track their record for redraft purposes.  There is interest for every team.  Every season there is incentive to win games because this could matter for the Redraft. 

The Redraft, Rounds 1 and 2:

                These are your stars.  They are the guys you want to build your franchise around.  They are only required to sign a 2 year contract with the team that drafts them, but can sign up to a 5 year deal if they choose.  There are some financial incentives to sign for the additional years as well as financial incentives to resign with the team that drafts you.  When you are drafting a star in the Redraft you could get him for a full 5 years, you could get him for only 2 years.   Every player that wants to play professional basketball will be eligible for the Redraft.  There will be no rookie draft that season.  All rookies will be in the Redraft. 

The Redraft, Rounds 3-6:

                Starter level players.  They are required to sign for at least 3 seasons and up to 5 seasons. 

The Redraft, Rounds 7-10: 

                Bench and developmental type players.  Players are required to sign 4-5 year contract with the team that drafts them. 

Free Agency: 

                Any players not taken in the 10 round Redraft will be free agents. 

Why Owner’s Would Agree to It?

                I have to think it would be worth an insane amount of money to the League.  It’s relevant to every season, but particularly relevant as you start approaching the 10^th year.  It incentives teams to avoid tanking.  Owners mostly aren’t keeping their guys throughout their careers anyways.  This gives the successful franchises a chance to lock in the best guys to new contracts and gives the struggling franchises a chance to overhaul their roster.  Hope is around for every franchise.  That has to drive interest. 

Why the Players Would Agree?

                The money would be huge.  You just know it would.  The best players would only have to go to a team for 2 years if they were really against playing for that franchise then have the flexibility to move on.  The best players could get huge paydays in the uncapped season.  Starter level players would have slightly less flexibility but could still get out of their contract in 3 years.  Late round role players would have 4 years of a guaranteed contract. 

Why the Fans Should Want It?

                What would drive conversation in the NBA more than Redrafting the entire League?  The debates about who you should take would be never ending.  The two years leading up to the draft would be incredibly exciting.  You’d still a nice period of time where the game is run like it is.  You can still develop attachments to your players, hell it would probably be a consideration of owners when drafting.  Does an owner who wants to keep his star on his team trade down to a spot he knows he can get him and acquire an additional pick?  Does he reach for his guy early?  There would be so many variables to consider. 

                I get fired up thinking about this idea.  I know it would never happen, but wow would it be incredible if it did.                 

Best First Round NCAA Tournament Games (That I Watched and Remember)

No basketball today.  It's depressing.  I hate it.  To give a little basketball to everyone's lives I'm ranking my fall time favorite first round games.  I'm sure I missed some (as these are off the top of my head) so please share your favorites.  I'll count down from 10.

10.  14 Weber State over 3 UNC (1999)- We'll start with an upset I remember watching on my mini TV in my bedroom.  It was a late night game.  I was in 8th grade.  Harold "The Show" Arceneaux just took over. 

9.  13 UNCW over 4 USC (2002) -  A sentimental favorite for me as my dad went to UNCW and always followed them.  Brett Blizzard and Craig Callahan made this a team that could win a tournament game and they did in a great, exciting battle with USC.  

8.  6. Maryland over 11. UNCW (2003)-  They were back a second straight year and looked headed for another NCAA tournament win when Drew Nichols broke my heart.  Amazing game and end.  I watched it at a high school party my senior year.  

7.  9. UAB over 8. Washington (2004)-  The only game I couldn't find footage of.  The final score was 102 to 100.  It ended in regulation.  UAB put up 51 each half.  One of the most exciting, up and down basketball games I remember watching.  https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=244000048

6.  13. Vermont over 4 Syracuse (2005) -  "OHHHHHHH!  MY GOODNESS!  SORRENTINE, HIT THAT ONE FROM THE PARKING LOT!" --- Gus Johnson

5.  8. Cincinnati over 9. Purdue (2015)-  UC winning a tournament game they never seem to win.  Down late, game seemingly lost and they make every play down the stretch including a buzzer beating Caupain layup to force OT.  

4.  11. VCU over 6. Duke (2007) -  One of my toughest omissions was when Lehigh beat Duke, but this one really sticks out.  Eric Maynor was awesome for VCU and drilled the game winner with 1.8 to play.  

3.  13. Valparaiso over 4. Mississippi (1998) - I stayed late at school and walked home to watch the end of this one.  Everyone knows it.  The homerun play to Bryce Drew. 

2.  15. Hampton over 2. Iowa State (2001)-  Capping off a crazy dame in Boise.  Ending with the image of their coach kicking his legs in the air being held up by his celebrating player.  

1.  14. Georgia State over 3. Baylor (2015)- Down 10 with under 2 minutes left.  Georgia State mounts a furious comeback capped off by RJ Hunter from deep while an injured coach Ron Hunter falls out of his chair.  

Pre-Selection Bracket Projection 2020

I’d be stunned if there was a tournament next week.  I’d be surprised if there is a tournament at all.  However, if there is a tournament (either starting next week or eventually) here is my prediction for what the field will look like:

One Seeds:         Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Two Seeds:         San Diego State, Creighton, Florida State, Duke

Three Seeds:     Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Oregon

Four Seeds:        Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville, Maryland

Five Seeds:         Ohio State, Penn State, Auburn, Butler

Six Seeds:            BYU, Illinois, Houston, Colorado

Seven Seeds:     West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, St Marys,

Eight Seeds:       Arizona, Michigan, Providence, USC

Nine Seeds:        Marquette, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma

Ten Seeds:          ETSU, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah State

11 Seeds:             Rutgers, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, NC State/Texas

12 Seeds:             Richmond/Wichita State, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Liberty

13 Seeds:             Akron, Vermont, North Texas, Belmont

14 Seeds:             UC Irvine, NM State, North Dakota State, Hofstra

15 Seeds:             Eastern Washington, Little Rock, NKU, Bradley

16 Seeds:             Winthrop, Boston, Siena/NC Central, Prairie View A&M/Robert Morris

Last 4 In:  NC State, Richmond, Wichita State, Texas

First Four Out:  Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier Purdue

Next Four Out:  Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South Carolina, Memphis

Others Considered: Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa

I have 36 teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams that have already won their at large bids).  Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine seed except Oklahoma.  I think Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are almost certain to be in as well, but I’m not willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 36. 

That leaves 10 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the remaining 6 spots.  Those teams are:  UCLA, Texas Tech, NC State, Richmond, Wichita State, Texas, Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier and Northern Iowa.  I actually think the committee will overseed UCLA, but I have them on this list because I think they COULD go the other way (They have things the committee traditionally values, but real holes that justify leaving them out).  I have Purdue over Northern Iowa on my First Four Out, but I think Northern Iowa is more likely to make the tournament.  Basically they have things the committee might value that are unique, whereas Purdue has things that other bubble teams did better.

Tuesday (Championship Week) Bracket Projection

One Seeds:         Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Two Seeds:         San Diego State, Creighton, Florida State, Duke

Three Seeds:     Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Oregon

Four Seeds:        Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville, Maryland

Five Seeds:         Ohio State, Penn State, Auburn, Butler

Six Seeds:            BYU, Illinois, Houston, Colorado

Seven Seeds:     West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, St Marys,

Eight Seeds:       Arizona, Michigan, Providence, USC

Nine Seeds:        Marquette, Florida, LSU, Stanford

Ten Seeds:          Oklahoma, ETSU, UCLA, Arizona State,

11 Seeds:             Utah State, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Indiana/Xavier

12 Seeds:             Texas Tech/NC State, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Liberty

13 Seeds:             Akron, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, Belmont

14 Seeds:             UC Irvine, NM State, Colgate, NKU

15 Seeds:             Hofstra, ND State, Eastern Washington, Little Rock

16 Seeds:             Winthrop, Bradley, Siena/NC A&T, Prairie View A&M/St Francis (PA)

Last 4 In:  Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC State

First Four Out:  Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State, Wichita State

Next Four Out:  Purdue, Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South Carolina

Others Considered: Memphis, Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa

I have 35 teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams that have already won their at large bids).  Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine seed except Stanford.  I think Stanford, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are likely to be in as well, but I’m not willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 35. 

That leaves 10 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the remaining 6 spots.  Those teams are:  UCLA, Cincinnati, Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC State, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State and Wichita State.  I think 6 of those 10 would be in today.  I have my prediction of who would, but I could see justifications for going with the others.

Everyone else listed I think would be out as of today, though some others could theoretically make a run at it in their conference tournaments.   

First Bracket Projection 2020

One Seeds:         Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Two Seeds:         San Diego State, Duke, Creighton, Florida State

Three Seeds:      Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Oregon

Four Seeds:        Ohio State, Villanova, Louisville, Wisconsin

Five Seeds:         Maryland, Penn State, Auburn, Butler

Six Seeds:            Iowa, BYU, Houston, Colorado

Seven Seeds:     West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia

Eight Seeds:       Arizona, Providence, St Marys, USC

Nine Seeds:        Marquette, Florida, LSU, Stanford

Ten Seeds:          Oklahoma, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah State

11 Seeds:            Rutgers, Cincinnati, ETSU, Indiana/Xavier

12 Seeds:            Texas Tech/NC State, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Liberty

13 Seeds:            Akron, Vermont, Louisiana Tech, Belmont

14 Seeds:            UC Irvine, NM State, Colgate, Wright State

15 Seeds:            Hofstra, ND State, Eastern Washington, Little Rock

16 Seeds:            Winthrop, Bradley, Siena/NC A&T, Prairie View A&M/St Francis (PA)

Last 4 In:  Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC State

First Four Out:  Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State, Wichita State

Next Four Out:  Purdue, Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South Carolina

Others Considered: Memphis, Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa

I have 36 teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams have already won their at large bids).  Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine seed except Stanford.  I think Stanford, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are likely to be in as well, but I’m not willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 36. 

That leaves 11 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the remaining 7 spots.  One of those spots I’m giving to ETSU as an at large selection.  That leaves 6 spots left for those remaining 10 teams.  Those teams are:  UCLA, Cincinnati, Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, NC State, Richmond, Texas, Mississippi State and Wichita State.  I think 6 of those 10 would be in today.  I have my prediction of who would, but I could see justifications for going with the others.

Everyone else listed I think would be out as of today, though some others could theoretically make a run at it in their conference tournaments.   

Ranking the Bubble 2020

Every team above this list I think is in the tournament and can’t play themselves out.  Every team I discuss here ranges from “I think they’re in but the committee could keep them out for X reason,” to “I’m almost certain they are out but they could 1. Play their way in or 2. The committee could justify their inclusion with Y”.  I go from most likely to make if the tournament started today to least likely.  Right now I’m discussing 29 teams for 12 at large spots, though you’ll notice many near the bottom I don’t think are in or that close.    


LSU- Strong strength of schedule and nonconference strength of schedule.  4-8 Q1 and 7-1 Q2.  Only one bad loss (at Vandy).  I’d be very surprised if they didn’t make it.  Home win over Florida and road wins over bubble Texas and bubble South Carolina are their best wins.  Also have some nice wins over bubble type teams Arkansas, Bama and Mississippi state to go along with a neutral court win over Rhode Island.  This is a strong bubble resume at this point.


Indiana- Another bubble team with a losing record in Q1/Q2 games (9-13).  They have great home wins over MSU, Florida State and Ohio State, another Q1 home win over Penn State and a Q1 road win at Minnesota.  They have 9 Q1 losses, 8 of which are on the road.  They only have 2 road wins (the Minnesota win and a win at Nebraska), but at least can claim two Neutral court Q2 wins (over Notre Dame and Connecticut).  I think they’ll end up in the tournament.


Xavier- One great win at Seton Hall is probably going to keep them in even but losing the next two would make them really nervous.  They are 3-10 Q1 (and two of those are against Georgetown/St Johns who likely aren’t dancing).  They are 7-1 against Q2 with the only loss being at Wake Forest.  They don’t have any bad losses.  It’s nothing special, but it’s probably a tournament resume.


Southern Cal-  I feel like some of the PAC 12 NET numbers don’t make a lot of sense.  How much credit will the committee give these teams for their home wins over an Arizona team sitting at 10-7 in conference?  USC is 4-7 against Q1 and 6-1 against Q 2.  The only “bad” loss was at home to Temple.  They beat Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford at home.  They have a solid neutral court win over LSU and a road win at UCLA.  I think they’re in with a win at home against UCLA to end the season.  If they don’t get that they still may hold on, but a couple PAC 12 tournament wins would help them.


Oklahoma- 10-12 Q1 and Q2 isn’t great but they have a few things going for them.  They swept WVU, split with Texas (each winning on the others court).  They also have a home win over bubble Mississippi State.  They don’t have any bad losses.  It’s a weaker resume than I thought at first glance and is kind of dependent on what you think of the WVU sweep. 


UCLA – If they don’t lose their last 2 I think they get in.  They are 6-6 Q1 and 3-3 Q2.  They have mostly erased their two bad losses.  They still are only 59 in Strength of Record and their predictive metrics have lagged way behind.  I don’t think they can afford a major slip up, but they can probably lose to USC and hang on.  Sweep of Arizona and sweep of Colorado are enormous for their resume.  They also have a nice home win over Arizona State. 


Arizona State-  Like many of these bubble teams they avoided bad losses (0 Q3/Q4 losses), but have a losing record in Q1/Q2 games (9-11).  A 6-5 road record is helpful.  Their two best wins are home against Arizona or at Stanford.  They have a nice home win over Oregon and home wins over USC and UCLA (that UCLA home win is still technically a Q3 win).  The PAC 12 is demonstrably better than last season, but a lot of these teams are pretty close to the bubble.  They should be helped out by the #11 SOS and #56 nonconference SOS.


Cincinnati-  How much will the committee penalize Cincinnati for 4 Q3 losses?  Most of their resume looks tournament worthy, but those losses loom large.  They are only 2-6 in Q1 games (a home win over Houston and road win at Wichita), but are 8-0 in Q2 games.  That makes them one of the bubble teams actually above .500 in Q1/Q2 games.  However, Houston is the only surefire at large team they have beaten all season.  They are helped by the 14^th ranked SOS including the 25^th ranked nonconference SOS.  As of right now they have only played 2 Q4 games.  The sweep of bubble Wichita State helps, as do home wins over Tennessee, Memphis, UConn, and Tulsa but their list of scalps isn’t at the level where the committee is going to overlook 4 Q3 losses.  UC has to hope the committee values their SOS and the fact that UC was testing itself almost every time it took the floor.


East Tennessee State- Here’s a team you want to win its conference tournament if you’re on the bubble.  Obviously, their gaudy 24-4 record is inflated by 12 Q4 wins and they do have 1 bad loss to Mercer but they’ve gone .500 in Q1/Q2 games and 12-3 in Q1-Q3.  They have Q1 road win over LSU to go with a Q2 road win over UNC Greensboro and Q2 home win over Furman.  If they get beat before the finals it may be too much to overcome, but a loss to either Furman or UNCG (both very solid teams) in the finals and they could (and I think should) be rewarded by the committee.  Small conference teams like ETSU are going to have a ton of Q3/Q4 games.  It’s a good time for the committee to really pay attention to resume metrics like Strength of Record or Wins Above Bubble. ETSU is 28 in SOR and at 2.2 Wins Above Bubble they rank 30^th nationally.  To me that’s a tournament worthy team.


Rutgers-  I think there is a good chance a lot of predictors are off on Rutgers.  Today they got their SECOND win away from home all season (over Purdue).  Teams never make the tournament with that resume, but their resume may be just unique enough to get there.  I still think they need a win or two in the Big 10 tournament to feel good.  If they do those things the strength of the rest of their resume should get them in the tournament.  They have home wins over Seton Hall, Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana.  Their only home loss was to Michigan.  But they lost at Pittsburgh, lost a neutral sight game to St. Bonaventure and lost every road game in conference except Nebraska.  The committee wants you to prove you can win off your home court.  I still think Rutgers needs to prove it. 


Texas- Left for dead at one point, they’ve played like a tournament team since mid-February.  They have no bad losses and a winning record on the road, which the committee will like.  Their best wins are road wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Oklahoma.  They also have a home win against WVU.  Of course, they are only 7-11 in Q1/Q2 games including a 2-4 Q2 record.  Maybe they are in as of today but if they are it’s by the skin of their teeth.


Texas Tech- Maybe they’ve been unlucky but few teams have as drastic a spread in their predictive metrics and resume metrics.  They are 21 in kenpom (22 in NET for what that is worth), but only 56 in Strength of Record.  The Neutral court win over Louisville is great and the wins over Texas (away) and WVU (home), Oklahoma (home) are nice.  However, they are only 7-12 in Q1/Q2 games and 8 of their wins are Q4 games.  I think there are a ton of issues with their resume.  They need more wins and need them badly, despite a gaudy NET ranking.  They are dangerous if they get in, but I’m not convinced they will.


North Carolina State- They are 4-5 in Q1 games (great for a bubble team), 4-5 in Q2 games (not great) and have 2 Q3 losses.  8-10 Q1/Q2 isn’t great but not out of line with many on the bubble.  However, unlike say Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, they didn’t combine that by avoiding bad losses.  How much will the committee value their home wins over Duke/Wisconsin?  They have nice road wins over Virginia and Syracuse, but lost to bubble Memphis.  They are going to be right at the cutline one way or the other.


Richmond- If the A10 is going to get a second at large team, Richmond might be the best bet.  Since February first the Spiders are 9-1.  They have a nice neutral court win over Wisconsin in the nonconference and road wins over Rhode Island and Davidson (3-4 Q1 record).  They only have one “bad loss” a neutral court loss to Radford in December and are .500 in Q1/Q2 games (14-7 in Q1-Q3 games).  I think they are above Rhode Island and Saint Louis in the A10 pecking order. 


Utah State-  They can earn a tournament bid tonight, if not the question is did they do enough?  All of their metrics scream bubble team(predictive= 42 Sagarin, 43 kenpom, 43 NET… Resume= 46 Strength of Record).  Only 4-6 Q1/Q2.  Their neutral court wins over Florida and LSU should carry some weight, but the problem is that really is the extent of their resume.  If they had avoided those 2 Q3 losses I could see them sliding in, but I think they’ll end up just below the cutline. 


Mississippi State- They are 2-6 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2 games with 2 Q3 losses.  That’s not great.  Their only win over a surefire at large team is a road win over Florida.  They swept Arkansas (the road win being their other Q1 win) and beat Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina at home.  They aren’t particularly strong (or weak for that matter) in the predictive metrics or resume metrics.  I think they likely have work to do in the SEC tournament.


Wichita State-  There’s nothing really bad about Wichita State’s resume, but there isn’t any meat to it either.  They absolutely have to beat Tulsa on Sunday to have any hope of an at large bid.  As of right now they are 0-5 against the top three AAC teams.  They are 2-6 in Q1 games, though neither win is over an at large caliber team and 7-2 against Q2 teams.  They have wins over bubble Oklahoma (home), and fringe bubble teams Memphis (home) and South Carolina (Neutral).  Their strength of record number is actually pretty good, but you’d have to think they need to win against Tulsa and make the conference finals to feel good about their chances. 


Northern Iowa – Their loss in Arch Madness should have a lot of bubble teams very nervous. They have a good road win over Colorado.  They are 1-1 Q1 and 3-2 Q2. However, they have 3 Q3 losses and 19 of their wins are Q3/Q4.  They are 47 NET and 48 kenpom.  They also have 1 Win Above Bubble, but their Strength of Record has slipped to 54 with the loss to Drake.  If they were top 45 in that number I think they’d have a better chance.  They are the kind of team I wouldn’t mind getting a shot, but given their 3 Q3 losses and limited Q1/Q2 opportunities I think they’ll be left out. 


Saint Louis- I don’t think 4-6 Q1/Q2 with 2 Q3 losses will quite get them there.  Road wins over Richmond and Rhode Island help.  They also have a road win at Kansas State.  Short of a trip to the A10 finals I see no chance, but could that get them there?


South Carolina- They are 3-8 Q1 and 5-2 Q2.  They have a really nice home win over Kentucky and nice road wins over Arkansas and Virginia.  They also have a road win at Clemson and home win over bubble Mississippi State.  If they didn’t have 3 bad losses (2 Q3, 1 Q4) they’d probably be closer to the discussion.  As it is the losing Q1/Q2 record AND the bad losses keep them out.  They could still do some work in the SEC tournament. 


Purdue- Too many losses?  I think it’s likely without a deep Big Ten tournament run.  This is probably a tournament caliber team that doesn’t have a tournament caliber resume.  The sweep of Iowa is great, as is the home win over Michigan State and road win over Indiana (swept Indiana).  They also have a nice nonconference home win over Virginia.  They are 9-14 in Q1/Q2 games and have a Q3 loss.  Probably need to make at least the finals of the Big 10 tournament.


Memphis-  Right now Memphis doesn’t have strong enough wins or a strong enough strength of schedule to make up for their 3 quad 3 losses.  If they can beat Houston again and make the conference tournament finals, that could change.  They have home wins over Houston, Wichita and Cincinnati (the three best tournament resumes in the conference) and a road win at Tennessee.  They are 8-6 Q1/Q2.  They aren’t there now but are another team that could play their way to the discussion. 


Arkansas- 3-5 in Q1 but only 4-6 Q2.  A road win at Indiana is nice, as is their home win over LSU, but none of their other wins are over at large caliber teams.  They have avoided bad losses, something Alabama cannot say. 


Rhode Island- Only 1-6 in Q1 games and that win is over a quickly fading VCU team.  Home win over Providence is nice.  Home wins over Bama, VCU and Davidson help too, but none of that is strong enough to get them in.  They are still on the list because they will get a chance or two to add to their resume in the A10 tournament. 


Alabama- 0-7 Q1 really says it all.  9-4 Q2 is fine, but not enough to make up for the 0-7 and they have 3 Q3 losses on top of that.  Home wins over LSU, Auburn, Richmond and Mississippi State are nice, but they really have not done much away from home to warrant their inclusion. 


Stephen F. Austin- The predictive metrics say they aren’t an at large caliber team…not even close.  However, they are 43 in strength of record and have a road win over Duke.  They are 20-1 in Q4 games.  If they lose maybe there will be an interesting discussion, but I just don’t see them getting in. 


Tennessee- 3-9 Q1 and 5-4 Q2.  Their road win over Kentucky this week was great and warrants at least keeping them in discussion in case they go on a run in the SEC tournament.  However, as of right now they haven’t done nearly enough.  A home win over Florida is their only other win over a surefire tournament team.  They only have 1 bad loss. 


Syracuse-  A somewhat similar resume to Arkansas but they have 2 bad losses to Arkansas’ zero.  They are 3-5 against Q1 (not bad), but only 3-6 Q2.  Their win at Virginia is their only win over a tournament team.  I don’t see them getting in. 


Tulsa- Losses to Arkansas State, UT Arlington and Colorado State probably doomed them, but if they win an outright championship and make the conference finals maybe they have a chance.  2-3 Q1, 4-4 Q2.  They have a home win over Houston and a road win over UConn.  They beat Wichita at home.