In 2003 I was a college freshman at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Yes it pains me to admit it but i initially made a decision to go to college where there was a free golf course and a 70-30 girl to guy ratio instead of staying where I could continue to attend every Bearcat game. Needless to say I remedied this decision the next year. The week of the Battle for the Victory Bell I spoke to a local sports bar who assured me they would be carrying the game on their ESPN Gameplan package, but little did I know there was a strike brewing at Miami. I believe it was the Miami janitors who were striking...but do not hold me to that. However, the key point is that ESPN refused to cross the picket line. The game was not going to be televised. What was I to do?
At 5 PM I walked down the hall to a friend’s room and asked him the simple question, “What do you think about driving to Cincinnati with me tonight so I can catch the Bearcat vs. Redhawks game tomorrow?” He said he was in and we left within 20 minutes, arriving at my mom’s palatial Loveland estate around 230 AM (and was she ever surprised).
The point of that little foray into Bearcatmark history is that in 2003 I was willing to drive 8 hours spur of the moment so as to not miss the Battle for the Victory Bell. At that time the Bearcat vs. Miami game was the game I probably looked forward to most every season. Today it is just a blip on the radar. So I guess my question is this: Is the rivalry between the University of Cincinnati and Miami of Ohio effective over?
If I was to rank the Bearcat games that I really wanted to attend this season the Miami game would rank above Southeast Missouri State, but below everyone else. This would be fine if it was just my feelings, but I am fairly certain there are plenty of Bearcat fans who share that sentiment. The fact of the matter is these two schools are now on completely different levels. And while Miami is not always going to be as down as they are now and surely they will be successful again...maybe even enough to beat Cincinnati. However, even in those years they will not be playing the same game as the BCS Bearcats... we are simply in two different worlds.
I think Miami fans are even starting to understand it. A few of my Miami graduate friends put together a big group for the Miami vs. Kentucky game at PBS, but are doing their best to avoid the Cincinnati vs. Miami game. They are pretty sure it is going to be a massacre. Over on Redhawk message boards even their fans are acknowledging they are not on UC’s level these days.
Right now we are only a few years removed from when Miami was clearly the better team. The losses against Big Ben are still fresh in our minds. I still have fond memories of the triple overtime battle at Nippert and brutal memories of the kickoff return that beat UC up in Oxford, or the dropped punt when it looked like Gino was going to bring UC all the way back in 2003. What happens as we get further and further removed from this? Bearcat and Redhawk fans alike are already far less stoked for this game than they have been in my lifetime. When does complete apathy set in? It is not much of a rivalry when fans start viewing it as just another game.
Many Bearcat fans have asked should we continue to play the game... and given the circumstance surrounding it I understand the question. I am personally on the side of playing the game. I do not mind watching the Bearcats beat the tar out of the Redhawks once a year. I do not mind having a road game in close driving distance, in a place with a great tailgating lot, in a pretty fun college town. I say grab your pink shirts, pop your collars and get up there Bearcat fans.
As many have pointed out we do not have the money to pay 1A teams for guarantee games. If we are going to struggle for a seventh home game lets have a road game an hour away. For fans like me who drive to Rutgers and hope to fly to South Florida (apparently tickets out of Dayton to Tampa are 130 dollars right now Bearcat fans) a game at Miami is certainly one to take advantage of every other year. This game has still been played for over 100 years. It is still the first college football game played in Ohio and still one of the nations oldest rivalries. So lets smack them around at least for a while longer and take the lead in the series.
I have many fond memories from the Bearcat vs. Miami rivalry. I have a few excruciating ones. Despite that this game is at the bottom of the list when it comes to Bearcat games I want to attend or care about watching. We are a few years removed from when this game was the biggest of the year and already their is a ora of apathy surrounding it. It would be nice if Miami could become at least a good team again on a consistent basis, but even if they do the game has lost its significance. I hope we keep playing, I like the game, but as it appears to me the Miami/Cincinnati rivalry is effective over.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Bearcat Offense Will Make it Difficult on Beavers
Tony Pike throws a 7 yard completion to Mardy Gilyard, 6 yard completion to Armon Binns, another 6 yard completion to Armon Binns, 9 yard completion to Ben Guidugli, 6 yard rush for Isaiah Peed, 16 yard completion to Mardy Gilyard forcing a Rutgers timeout, 27 yard completion to D.J. Woods, and the drive is capped off by with a 2 yard touchdown run by Isaiah Peed... the season began that quickly. In a mere 2 and half minutes the Bearcats took the opening kickoff and marched 81 yards in 9 plays for a touchdown. If you were expecting rust, or early mistakes, or starting slow you were mistaken. I could not have pictured a more perfect start to a season. Sure a long pass for a touchdown would have been cool, or a Mardy Gilyard kickoff return for a touchdown would have cause the all of us Bearcats that made the trip and those watching from home to go bonkers, but neither would have told us as much about the Bearcat offense as that incredibly quick and yet still 9 play drive. The Bearcats never got less than 6 yards on any play that drive. For me the highlight of the drive was Rutgers burning a timeout because they simply were not ready for the onslaught of offense and the speed of the attack. This was just a pure, methodical drive. It was exactly what this Bearcat offense is about.
The Bearcats went on to run Rutgers out of their newly expanded stadium and then laid 70 on Southeast Missouri State (a team with the worst nickname in sports). It amazes me the complete 180 many in the media have done on Rutgers since that game. Before the game there were a ton of people picking Rutgers to win the league. They were talking about their 7 game winning streak to end the season, their favorable schedule, their talented defense and all the offensive lineman they returned. After the game the general consensus has seemed to become “Rutgers is not that good.”
To me, however, the game said far more about what this Bearcat offense is capable of than it said about Rutgers. I felt going in this would be the best Bearcat offense in my lifetime, now I feel this will be one of the best in the country. The Bearcats went to a hostile environment and looked brilliant. Trust me when I say this these Rutgers fans and players were absolutely stoked for this game. The Bearcats had become a nemesis to the Scarlet Knights and nothing would have made them happier than to take down Cincinnati in their newly expanded stadium. The ability of our no huddle offense to function at that capacity, on the road in front of 60,000 screaming fans was incredibly impressive. It is going to translate well this week at Oregon State.
To me the most exciting part of the offense this year and been the stellar play of the offensive line. Tony Pike has really not been touched. I believe Pike has been sacked one time this season, on a blitz that was not read as a player came untouched. The Bearcat lineman have absolutely been abusing their opponents. They are also getting down field and hitting people on running plays. They have opened up huge holes for both Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Peed. The size, strength, skill and athleticism of these offensive lineman seems to be exactly what Brian Kelly envision when he described what his offense could be as he took over the Bearcats. If the offensive line continues to knock people around like this I expect the offense to continue to dominate all season.
So what does all this mean for the huge match-up this week in Corvallis, Oregon against the Oregon State Beavers?
Bearcat Offense vs. Oregon State Defense:
The Oregon State defense has given up some yards through the air so far this season and they really have not been able to pressure the quarterback. Bare in mind their first two games were against Portland State and UNLV. Now I am sure Mike Reilly was not showing everything in those games, but that has to give the Beavers pause for concern. I really believe the Bearcats will be able to move the ball against Oregon State. The key will be maintaining the efficiency they have shown in the first two weeks. I believe the first team offense has punted 1 time (a three and out last week where the Bearcats dropped two passes), and turned it over one time (the int against Rutgers). Other than that the Bearcats are scoring and scoring touchdowns. If they can continue to play fast and pick up yards in large chunks they are going to force Oregon State to keep up.
Bearcat Defense vs. Oregon State Offense:
To me this is the area where there are still a bunch of unknowns. I was very happy with the Bearcat performance on defense against Rutgers and I did not read much into their performance against Southeast Missouri State. I still think the Bearcat front seven is very good and will cause problems. Brian Kelly's strategy against Rutgers seemed to be to make the Scarlet Knights sustain long drives if they want to score. I believe we will see a similar strategy against the Beavers. The Oregon State offensive line is probably not as good as the Rutgers line so I believe the Bearcats will be able to do the job at the line of scrimmage. Still to slow down Jaquizz Rodgers the Bearcats linebackers and safeties are going to have to fill the gaps and make tackles. Rodgers is not as explosive a back as you expect but he consistently gets solid yardage. Very few teams have slowed him down.
The other key will be that the corners and safeties do not give up big plays to the Oregon State wide receivers. To me this is the way Oregon State can hang around this game. I firmly believe the Oregon State offense is going to have to score 30+ to beat Cincinnati and the only way they are going to do that is by getting some big plays. The Beaver offense has not been nearly as efficient as the Bearcat offense so far this season. UNLV pretty much shut them down in the first half last week. To win the game Cincinnati does not have to shut down Oregon State, instead they need to continue to limit big plays forcing Oregon State to sustain long drives. I do not believe their offense is efficient enough to put up big points that way. Forcing teams to sustain long drives is also how the Bearcats force opponents into into making mistakes and turning the ball over. If the Bearcats win the turnover battle, they are not going to lose this game.
My Prediction:
Clearly I think the Bearcats are the better team in this match-up. I do not think the Oregon State defense is going to be able to slow down Cincinnati's fast, efficient spread offense and I think the Bearcat defense will slow down the Beavers enough to create some separation. For Oregon State to win this game I believe they will need some big plays on offense, to protect the ball on offense, and to force the Bearcats into a 2 or 3 turnovers. Playing out in a very hostile environment where the Beavers rarely lost will not be easy, but the Bearcats showed at Rutgers they are more than capable of being efficient on offense despite a hostile crowd. If Oregon State starts as slow as they did against UNLV they will be in for a long day. My prediction is the Bearcats jump them early, give up a few scores, but win going away.
Bearcats 42
Beavers 23
The Bearcats went on to run Rutgers out of their newly expanded stadium and then laid 70 on Southeast Missouri State (a team with the worst nickname in sports). It amazes me the complete 180 many in the media have done on Rutgers since that game. Before the game there were a ton of people picking Rutgers to win the league. They were talking about their 7 game winning streak to end the season, their favorable schedule, their talented defense and all the offensive lineman they returned. After the game the general consensus has seemed to become “Rutgers is not that good.”
To me, however, the game said far more about what this Bearcat offense is capable of than it said about Rutgers. I felt going in this would be the best Bearcat offense in my lifetime, now I feel this will be one of the best in the country. The Bearcats went to a hostile environment and looked brilliant. Trust me when I say this these Rutgers fans and players were absolutely stoked for this game. The Bearcats had become a nemesis to the Scarlet Knights and nothing would have made them happier than to take down Cincinnati in their newly expanded stadium. The ability of our no huddle offense to function at that capacity, on the road in front of 60,000 screaming fans was incredibly impressive. It is going to translate well this week at Oregon State.
To me the most exciting part of the offense this year and been the stellar play of the offensive line. Tony Pike has really not been touched. I believe Pike has been sacked one time this season, on a blitz that was not read as a player came untouched. The Bearcat lineman have absolutely been abusing their opponents. They are also getting down field and hitting people on running plays. They have opened up huge holes for both Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Peed. The size, strength, skill and athleticism of these offensive lineman seems to be exactly what Brian Kelly envision when he described what his offense could be as he took over the Bearcats. If the offensive line continues to knock people around like this I expect the offense to continue to dominate all season.
So what does all this mean for the huge match-up this week in Corvallis, Oregon against the Oregon State Beavers?
Bearcat Offense vs. Oregon State Defense:
The Oregon State defense has given up some yards through the air so far this season and they really have not been able to pressure the quarterback. Bare in mind their first two games were against Portland State and UNLV. Now I am sure Mike Reilly was not showing everything in those games, but that has to give the Beavers pause for concern. I really believe the Bearcats will be able to move the ball against Oregon State. The key will be maintaining the efficiency they have shown in the first two weeks. I believe the first team offense has punted 1 time (a three and out last week where the Bearcats dropped two passes), and turned it over one time (the int against Rutgers). Other than that the Bearcats are scoring and scoring touchdowns. If they can continue to play fast and pick up yards in large chunks they are going to force Oregon State to keep up.
Bearcat Defense vs. Oregon State Offense:
To me this is the area where there are still a bunch of unknowns. I was very happy with the Bearcat performance on defense against Rutgers and I did not read much into their performance against Southeast Missouri State. I still think the Bearcat front seven is very good and will cause problems. Brian Kelly's strategy against Rutgers seemed to be to make the Scarlet Knights sustain long drives if they want to score. I believe we will see a similar strategy against the Beavers. The Oregon State offensive line is probably not as good as the Rutgers line so I believe the Bearcats will be able to do the job at the line of scrimmage. Still to slow down Jaquizz Rodgers the Bearcats linebackers and safeties are going to have to fill the gaps and make tackles. Rodgers is not as explosive a back as you expect but he consistently gets solid yardage. Very few teams have slowed him down.
The other key will be that the corners and safeties do not give up big plays to the Oregon State wide receivers. To me this is the way Oregon State can hang around this game. I firmly believe the Oregon State offense is going to have to score 30+ to beat Cincinnati and the only way they are going to do that is by getting some big plays. The Beaver offense has not been nearly as efficient as the Bearcat offense so far this season. UNLV pretty much shut them down in the first half last week. To win the game Cincinnati does not have to shut down Oregon State, instead they need to continue to limit big plays forcing Oregon State to sustain long drives. I do not believe their offense is efficient enough to put up big points that way. Forcing teams to sustain long drives is also how the Bearcats force opponents into into making mistakes and turning the ball over. If the Bearcats win the turnover battle, they are not going to lose this game.
My Prediction:
Clearly I think the Bearcats are the better team in this match-up. I do not think the Oregon State defense is going to be able to slow down Cincinnati's fast, efficient spread offense and I think the Bearcat defense will slow down the Beavers enough to create some separation. For Oregon State to win this game I believe they will need some big plays on offense, to protect the ball on offense, and to force the Bearcats into a 2 or 3 turnovers. Playing out in a very hostile environment where the Beavers rarely lost will not be easy, but the Bearcats showed at Rutgers they are more than capable of being efficient on offense despite a hostile crowd. If Oregon State starts as slow as they did against UNLV they will be in for a long day. My prediction is the Bearcats jump them early, give up a few scores, but win going away.
Bearcats 42
Beavers 23
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Bearcat Football Preview 2009
By my count five different teams have been picked to win the Big East Conference this year by various sources. People seem to think the Bearcats will finish anywhere from 1 to 5 in the league. Coming off of their first Big East Championship (and first outright league title in decades) can the Bearcats repeat? With the target on their backs and a defense that only returns 1 starter it would seem a tall order. In good news, however, Brian Kelly remains the coach of the Bearcats and the offense returns almost entirely intact...with all that in mind lets take a detailed look about what to expect this season.
On Defense:
The first thing everyone notices about this Bearcat defense is everything they lost. Gone are drafted secondary members Mike Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, and Brandon Underwood. Gone is Big East sack leader and second round draft pick Conner Barwin. Gone is All American Defensive Tackle Terrill Byrd. All told the Bearcats lost 10 of 11 starters. Also missing is Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tressey with his 4-3 zone defense and in his place steps Bob Diaco with his aggressive 3-4. Truth be told this Cincinnati defense could not at first glance look any more different from the 2008 version that helped lead the Bearcats to a Big East Championship.
The good news is this may not be as bad as it appears. The Bearcats appear to have a big, strong, and fast defensive line. Every player returning contributed positively last season. By all accounts Derek Wolfe has been an imposing force throughout camp. At 6'5 and over 300 pounds Wolfe offers a combination of size and skill that has been rarely seen on the Bearcat defensive line. He seems ideally situated to be a force at nose tackle. Combined with other strong, athletic players like John Hughes, Rob Trigg, Ricardo Mathews, Alex Daniels and Dan Giordano I have little doubt the Bearcat defensive line will be able to occupy offensive lineman and allow the linebackers plenty of opportunities to make plays. Any added pressure these guys can put on the quarterback will be a complete bonus for the defense.
With the defensive lineman making life very difficult on opposing offenses it should free up space for the linebackers and safeties to make plays. The starting safeties for Cincinnati are ideally suited to do just that. Aaron Webster was great against the run last season. He was consistently in on tackles, delivering big hits, without allowing big yards. When healthy Bearcat coaches have been very impressed with the play of Drew Frey and I have little doubt he will be very solid in run defense.
Linebacker is a position with far more questions, but lets start with the good news. The outside linebacker position in the 3-4 defense seems like an ideal place to showcase the skills of Curtis Young. Curtis Young was somewhat limited in action last season playing behind all Big East defensive end Conner Barwin, but in that limited action he yielded 4 sacks and 8.5 tackles for a loss. Young is the type of player who can line up with his hand on the ground at more of a defensive end position and can play straight up like a linebacker. I look for him to be disruptive in opposing backfields all season long. Andre Revels becomes the full time starter for the first time in his career at middle linebacker. Revels has been solid essentially splitting time with Manalac 50-50 over the past two season. The rest of the Bearcat linebacking corp does not lack for strength or athleticism. Former quarterback Demetrius Jones may be the most athletic player on the Bearcat roster. Craig Carey and Marcus Waugh have also taken their abilities and moved to the defensive side of the football. Players like Colin McCafferty, J.K. Schaffer, Robby Armstrong and Dorian Davis will get their chance to make plays. These linebackers probably have more athletic ability than last years and I think this will translate into players who perform strongly against the run all season.
Which brings me to the big question for the Bearcat defense... pass defense. How well will these linebackers, playing in a completely new system and starting for the first time be able to understand and execute the pass defenses Bob Diaco asks them to play? If the Bearcat defense is going to struggle to me this is the obvious area that will give them problems. Beyond the linebackers, will the Bearcats be able to adequately replace the contributions NFL bound Mickens, Smith and Underwood were able to give them. I have a great deal of confidence in Dominique Battle because he was able to do it on the field late last season. Brad Jones has the experience and the size, but he has not been asked to be a full time corner before... will he be up to the task? The Bearcats will need Battle, Jones and some of the other young cornerbacks like Reubon Johnson, MJ James, Chris Williams, and Camerron Cheetham to step up in a big way if they are going to repeat as Big East Champions.
All in all I feel very good about the Bearcat run defense and see some obvious questions when it comes to their pass defense. If the Bearcats can answer those concerns they can be every bit as good, if not better than last years championship squad.
On Offense:
There has never been a season where I have had more confidence about a Cincinnati Bearcat offense heading into week 1. In Gino Guidugli's final season he had a completely new head coach who ran a different type of offense. When Brian Kelly arrived he was trying to switch from power running to shotgun spread and was trying to do it with a relatively undistinguished transfer QB with pins in his arm. Last season everyone was wondering would it be Mauk, Grutza, Pike or someone else leading the show? When Coach Kelly decided on Grutza everyone remembered his mediocre career as Dantonio's starter. Could Kelly turn him into a star? Eventually Grutza went down and Pike took over leading Cincinnati to a Big East Championship. The great part about that was now Cincinnati fans have an idea of what they can get from Pike and the possibilities have us excited.
Not enough is being made of the fact that this is the first time Brian Kelly has known his quarterback going into the spring since he was coaching at Division II Grand Valley State. Think about that for a second. Think about how good Brian Kelly's offenses have looked at Central Michigan and now at Cincinnati and remember that he has done that without getting an entire off-season to really prepare one quarterback. Tony Pike has been the guy all off-season. He has taken the first team reps, been able to continually up is connection with his receivers and running backs, enhance his feel for the offensive lineman and their protections, as well as really master the offense. Last season because of all the injuries and uncertainties the Bearcats slowed things down. They did not get to the line as fast or change the pace like they had in Kelly's first season. Now with Pike being the guy and being prepared all off-season I expect to see everything Kelly wants to throw out there this season. To me this is huge and the biggest story going into the season for Bearcat football. I just cannot imagine this offense not clicking on all cylinders.
This of course would be less relevant if the Bearcats had lost a bunch of players on offense, luckily that is not the case. Pike has back his entire left side of the offensive line to protect his blind side in Linkenbach and Kelce, as well as he gets his starting center back in Chris Jurek. The Bearcats are replacing the right side of the line, but they are doing so with talent that saw plenty of action last season and have the potential to be very good. Alex Hoffman, C.J. Cobb, and Sam Griffen are expected to really solidify the offensive line. The Bearcats have their top three running backs returning and fans expect to see more of play making type backs such as Isaiah Pead and Darrin Williams this season. Perhaps the deepest position on the Bearcat roster is wide receiver where they return first team all Big East wide receiver Mardy Gilyard as well as talented contributors Armon Binns, D.J. Woods, and Marcus Barnett. With all of this talent back, an entire off-season working with Kelly to master the off-season and the prospect of repeating as Big East Champions I have little doubt Tony Pike will lead this offense to huge accomplishments this season. I really believe this will be the best Bearcat offense of the modern era.
On Special Teams:
You do not replace Kevin Huber. The man led the nation in net punting back to back seasons. I am not sure how often that happens but I am willing to bet it is incredibly rare. I have never seen a punter consistently put the ball inside the 10 or at the very least 20 as often as Huber did. When the Bearcats were banged up it was Kevin Huber that allowed the Bearcats to play much more conservatively than I am sure Brian Kelly is used to or ideally wanted to. My hope is the Bearcats get solid punting. If they do that I really feel with the strong offense they can offset the loss of Kevin Huber. Still in close games against top notch defenses that is a worry.
Throwing out Huber, however, I am very confident in Bearcat special teams. Mardy Gilyard took two kickoffs back for touchdowns in 2008 and was one of the premier kickoff returners in the country. I think D.J. Woods has to potential to come into his own as a punt returner this year. Jake Rodgers has gotten his share of grief as a Bearcat but his sophomore year was considerably better than his freshman year and really when you look at the numbers he was very good. Now he has another year of experience. He already has a huge leg (3-4 from 50+) and I really believe this is the year he puts it all together and becomes a huge weapon for the Bearcats (though ideally we will be scoring touchdowns not field goals).
Season Projections:
@ Rutgers, Monday September 7: Talk about an enormous way to open the season. This is a Labor Day conference game against two of the favorites to win the conference. This really is a game the Bearcats cannot afford to lose if they want to win the Conference. Rutgers is returning a bunch on defense and their offensive line is completely intact from last year. They do, however, lose their quarterback and top two receivers. I really believe there is not a better time to catch Rutgers, because once they get their quarterback situation settled they are going to be as good as anyone in the league. Rutgers has the advantage of playing all of the projected contenders at home (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and South Florida). If Cincinnati can win this game it will be them with a huge leg up on the other contenders who will have to go to Rutgers after they get their QB situation in order. Leaning Towards Win
Southeast Missouri State, Saturday September 12: The first home game of the year should be a route. WIN
@ Oregon State, Saturday September 19: A huge non-league road trip where the Bearcats will really get the opportunity to represent the Big East. Two years ago the Bearcats absolutely abused the Beavers at Nippert. Oregon State has one of the best running backs in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. They return a good amount of starters from a team that tied for second in the PAC Ten. It is never easy to win in Corvallis...just ask Pete Carroll and USC who lost the last 2 times they went there(including last season). I like the Bearcats' ability to stop the run, but this will be a very difficult road environment. Tossup
Fresno State, Saturday September 26: Fresno State is always a tough non-conference test for BCS teams. They seem to always come ready to play and have consistently competed for WAC titles. This game is sandwiched in between a trip to the west coast and a traditional rivalry game so we have to hope the Bearcats remain focused. That being said I do not anticipate a loss. WIN
@Miami (OH), Saturday October 3: A rivalry that is going to be one-sided for a while. WIN
@ USF, Thursday October 15: The Bearcats are lucky in that they get their first bye week to prepare for a Thursday night game at league rival USF (USF also has a bye so it is not an advantage). The Bearcats have owned the Bulls and particularly Matt Grothe the past few seasons, however, this game has an interesting twist with former Bearcat defensive coordinator Joe Tresey running the Bulls defense. Tresey and his knowledge of the Bearcats and what they do scares me a bit, but in the end I still like this team to get the job done. Leaning Towards Bearcats
Louisville, Saturday October 24: Homecoming... I know it is a rivalry, but I expect Louisville to be really bad. WIN
@Syracuse, Saturday October 31: It is Syracuse...they are starting a Duke Flopper who has not played football in four years at quarterback... I have confidence. WIN
UCONN, Saturday November 7: Big revenge game for the Bearcats who absolutely fell apart last season in the forth quarter against UCONN. Last year was the first game where I have really questioned Kelly's strategy as he refused to run the ball even with Anderson looking awful. UCONN is never an easy team to play. They are well coach and have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I really do not think they have enough offense. WIN
West Virginia, Friday November 13: It is Friday the 13th and the Bearcats have a huge conference game against WVU. To me this is the game that really could decide the conference championship. West Virginia had owned the Bearcats in Big East play up until last season. I personally believe that Brown is going to do a very good job running an offense that will be very balanced this year for the Mountaineers. Can the Bearcats beat the Mountaineers and repeat as Big East champions? I think being at home gives the Bearcats a slight advantage... very slight. Leaning Towards Bearcats (barely)
Illinois, Friday November 27: The Bearcats get a week off to refocus after the WVU game. That is nice, because this is another great chance for the Big East to show what they have out of conference. It is hard to know what to expect from Illinois. Last year they really struggled, two years ago they made the Rose Bowl. The talent is there, will they perform? I say not in a hostile Nippert. WIN
@Pittsburgh: I think the loss of McCoy hurts more than many believe. Pittsburgh has a very good defense, but to me not as dominate as some have made it out to be. I think the Bearcats are able to score enough to win while Pittsburgh struggles to run the football on the Bearcat defense. This game scares me a bit because if Pittsburgh can get consistent production from the quarterback position they could be as good as anyone in the conference (and potentially a top 15 team). I, however, have not seen anything to really prove that will happen. WIN (but worries me a little)
Looking back at my projections I have 7 solid wins for the Bearcats to go with 1 win that worries me a little, 3 leaning towards win and 1 true tossup. Of those 5 non wins I am going to assume the Bearcats lose no more than 4 and lose at least 1. With all that said my range for the Bearcats this season is 8-4 to 11-1. I am leaning towards the higher totals that fits with my projection that has many of the tossup type games as close Bearcat wins. My projection is 10-2 with a 6-1 or 5-2 conference record. If we go 6-1 in conference I think we have a great shot at a Big East Championship. Looking at everything I still think the Bearcats have the best odds of any team in the conference to win the Big East. (Last year my projection was 11-2 and said if 1 of the wins was at WVU we'd be Big East Champions)... So there you have it. Monday cannot get here soon enough. Still to come this week is my full Big East Preview... until then... OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHH OH OH OH OH UC!!!
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Games I Am Looking Forward to in the Opening Round
Thursday:
8. LSU vs. 9. Butler (Greensboro, 12:20pm)- I love how the NCAA committee gave no respect to the SEC…frankly the SEC did not earn respect. I like this Butler team, they are young, but they have showed a lot of promise.
8. BYU vs. 9. Texas A&M (Philadelphia 12:30 pm)- another 8 vs. 9 matchup between a mid-major and power conference team. I like Texas A&M in this game but I always like to see the non-power conference get a win and BYU certainly has a solid squad.
5. Purdue vs. 12. Northern Iowa (Portland 2:30 pm)- The Missouri Valley has traditionally been a tough out in the NCAA tournament. Northern Iowa is not particularly athletic, but they play smart basketball and can shoot the ball. As everyone knows by now 12 seeds almost always beat a 5 seed at least once in the NCAA tournament. I do not think this is the matchup, not because Northern Iowa is not capable, but because Purdue is really playing well right now. Purdue with a healthy Hummel is a fine basketball team and can make a nice run.
7. California vs. 10. Maryland (Kansas City 2:55 pm)- Both these teams have top notch coaches. Maryland made the necessary run they needed late in the year to make the dance. On their best night the Terps are capable of beating anyone. Cal has been more consistent throughout the season… still I like the ACC over the Pac Ten in this one.
4. Washington vs. 13. Mississippi State (Portland 5 pm)- With their backs to the wall Mississippi State made it happen. They won 4 games in 4 days to earn their way into the Big Dance. My favorite part of March every year is almost every team in America gets to play until they lose, in that sense the conference tournaments are an extension of the NCAA tournament…everyone is alive. Anyone who has not seen Vernado play is missing out. He reminds me of Kenyon Martin. Though he does not have the offensive skill Kenyon displayed he is a better shot blocker…the best in the country.
7. Texas vs. 10. Minnesota (Greensboro 7:10 pm)- The first of the games featuring a mediocre big ten team. Minnesota has had their moments this year, but I do not think they are good enough to beat Texas when they play well.
7. Clemson vs. 10. Michigan (Kansas City 7:10 pm)- Clemson has been really falling apart down the stretch. I also have no confidence in any Clemson team to win anything. Beilein is a heck of a coach. This is a game I think Michigan can win.
4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Akron (Portland 7:25 pm)- I think Gonzaga is capable of making a nice run this year, but am always interested in seeing the Ohio teams. The MAC has not one and NCAA tournament game in years, I believe since Antonio Gates was killing it at Kent State. I expect that trend to continue.
6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU (Philadelphia 9:50 pm)- Two years ago Eric Maynor lit up duke as VCU pulled a big first round upset (also as an 11 seed). Maynor is averaging 22 points per game in his senior campaign and he is added by Sophomore big man Larry Sanders. VCU is certainly capable of a big upset.
5. Illinois vs. 12. Western Kentucky (Portland 9:55 pm)- Another possible 12/5 upset. Western Kentucky was in the sweet 16 last season. They are probably not as good this time around, but Illinois has been a bit up and down. They will likely be without or at the very best with the limited services of their starting point guard. (And that concludes day 1)
Friday:
8. Oklahoma State vs. 9. Tennessee (Dayton 12:25)- Another 8 vs. 9 battle and this could be a high scoring game. Both of these two teams like to run. Tennessee has been very inconsistent but they have the talent to give teams trouble. (Quick tangent here…the sound at wherever I watch the games in Vegas needs to be on the Dayton Regional where Bill Raftery is doing color commentary. Raftery is the Babe Ruth of sports announcing. He defines the position. Whether he’s telling you what defense a team is starting in (MANTOMAN) or telling you how clutch a player is for making a huge play (ONIONS) or announcing a game as a Pitt player breaks the backboard “Send it in Jerome!” Raftery brings this flair to the job that is fun, but not over the top. Raftery understands the game but does not annoy you with his own personal agendas. Bill Simmons can have Gus Johnson… I’ll take Bill Raftery every time.)
3. Kansas vs. 14. North Dakota State (Minneapolis 12:30)- 2 of the last 3 years Kansas has been eliminated in round 1 (by Bucknell and Bradley). North Dakota State is a great story making the NCAA tournament in their first year of Division 1 college basketball. They redshirted this year’s senior class a few years back so they would be available for their first year in Division 1. Ben Westbrook is scoring over 22 per game and has gone for 60 this year. I do not think North Dakota State will do it, but I am very intrigued by this game (particularly since Kansas has lost to Texas Tech and Baylor in the last two weeks).
6. Marquette vs. 11. Utah State (Boise 12:30)- People think Marquette is done without James. I know they have lost 5 of 6, but those games were to 1 seeds and 3 seeds (yea every loss) and three were ridiculously close. I think they are getting their act together. I am anxious to see them come to play against Utah State (and in the next round I think their guards are too good to be bothered by the Missouri press). I also do not know what it is about the Boise location but it always seems to produce the best NCAA tournament early round games. I swear one of these years I am going to make a trip to Boise for the opening rounds.
6. Arizona State vs. 11. Temple (Miami 2:45 pm)- Another 6/11 game of intrigue. James Harden vs. Deonte Christmas will be a really good matchup.
6. West Virginia vs. 11. Dayton (Minneapolis 3 pm)- West Virginia has really been valued this year by guys like Ken Pomeroy who calculate offensive and defensive efficiency. They are 1 of 6 teams in the country to be in the top twenty nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (Every champion since 2005 has had that trait). Huggins 13-3 in his career in first round games and has not loss an opening round game as anything higher than an 8 seed. I think WVU makes a statement here and I look for them to make a run.
5. Utah vs. 12. Arizona (Miami 7:10pm)- I think a 5 seed was very generous for Utah (I had them as a 7). Many people do not think Arizona earned their way in, but they have some big time quality victories. With Arizona it always depends on which team shows up. I think they have a great set to put the “upset.”
7. Boston College vs. 10. USC (Minneapolis, 7:20)- Boston College is another team with some great wins and bad losses. The USC Trojans have been facing elimination since Pac Ten tournament play began. I like their chances to continue their run of success.
4. Xavier vs. 13. Portland State (Boise 7:25)- Reading up on Portland State they are a much more dangerous team for Xavier than I originally thought. I think they are going to really pressure Xavier’s point guards, which tends to result in turnovers for X. The key for Portland State will be hitting threes. Xavier has lost 5 of their last 10 and at times to teams not as good as Portland State. This could be another game where the magic of Boise shines through.
4. Wake Forest vs. 13. Cleveland State (Miami 9:40)- I thought Wake Forest earned a 3 seed, but the committee thought differently. A 3 seed would have produced a much more favorable matchup. Cleveland State is very good having already beaten Syracuse and played WVU pretty tough this season. If Wake Forest shows up and plays their best they will win, but they have struggled against lesser teams from time to time this year.
8. Ohio State vs. 9. Siena (Dayton 9:40)- Can Siena overcome the home court advantage that Ohio State will have? Siena is a very good basketball team that as a 13 seed last year was able to advance to the second round. This year they get a better matchup, but in a tougher venue. Ohio State seems to be playing their best basketball. I expect them to move on, but Siena should give them a fight.
5. Florida State vs. 12. Wisconsin (Boise 9:55)- I think Florida State was very under-seeded. They are a really good team. The more I have looked at Wisconsin’s resume the less impressed I have been. Bo Ryan’s teams are always dangerous, but I think the Seminoles take care of business.
Most Likely First Round Upsets in order of likelihood…I think you will see 4 or 5 (11 seeds and below)
12. Arizona over 5. Utah
11. VCU over 6. UCLA
11. Temple over 6. Arizona State
12. Western Kentucky over 5. Illinois
13. Mississippi State over 4. Washington
13. Cleveland State over 4. Wake Forest
11. Utah State over 6. Marquette
12. Wisconsin over 5. Florida State
14. North Dakota State over 3. Kansas
13. Akron over 4. Gonzaga
11. Dayton over 6. West Virginia
Sleeper Teams that can make the Sweet 16 and beyond, in order of likelihood (seeded 6 and below…I think there will be 3-5)
West Virginia
Marquette
Texas
Western Kentucky
Michigan
Arizona
Clemson
Tennessee
Southern Cal
Boston College
Mississippi State
Maryland
VCU
6 Final Four Sleepers (3 seeds and Below)
Syracuse
Villanova
Purdue
West Virginia
Gonzaga
Florida State
My Final 4
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Memphis
Championship
Pitt over U of L
8. LSU vs. 9. Butler (Greensboro, 12:20pm)- I love how the NCAA committee gave no respect to the SEC…frankly the SEC did not earn respect. I like this Butler team, they are young, but they have showed a lot of promise.
8. BYU vs. 9. Texas A&M (Philadelphia 12:30 pm)- another 8 vs. 9 matchup between a mid-major and power conference team. I like Texas A&M in this game but I always like to see the non-power conference get a win and BYU certainly has a solid squad.
5. Purdue vs. 12. Northern Iowa (Portland 2:30 pm)- The Missouri Valley has traditionally been a tough out in the NCAA tournament. Northern Iowa is not particularly athletic, but they play smart basketball and can shoot the ball. As everyone knows by now 12 seeds almost always beat a 5 seed at least once in the NCAA tournament. I do not think this is the matchup, not because Northern Iowa is not capable, but because Purdue is really playing well right now. Purdue with a healthy Hummel is a fine basketball team and can make a nice run.
7. California vs. 10. Maryland (Kansas City 2:55 pm)- Both these teams have top notch coaches. Maryland made the necessary run they needed late in the year to make the dance. On their best night the Terps are capable of beating anyone. Cal has been more consistent throughout the season… still I like the ACC over the Pac Ten in this one.
4. Washington vs. 13. Mississippi State (Portland 5 pm)- With their backs to the wall Mississippi State made it happen. They won 4 games in 4 days to earn their way into the Big Dance. My favorite part of March every year is almost every team in America gets to play until they lose, in that sense the conference tournaments are an extension of the NCAA tournament…everyone is alive. Anyone who has not seen Vernado play is missing out. He reminds me of Kenyon Martin. Though he does not have the offensive skill Kenyon displayed he is a better shot blocker…the best in the country.
7. Texas vs. 10. Minnesota (Greensboro 7:10 pm)- The first of the games featuring a mediocre big ten team. Minnesota has had their moments this year, but I do not think they are good enough to beat Texas when they play well.
7. Clemson vs. 10. Michigan (Kansas City 7:10 pm)- Clemson has been really falling apart down the stretch. I also have no confidence in any Clemson team to win anything. Beilein is a heck of a coach. This is a game I think Michigan can win.
4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Akron (Portland 7:25 pm)- I think Gonzaga is capable of making a nice run this year, but am always interested in seeing the Ohio teams. The MAC has not one and NCAA tournament game in years, I believe since Antonio Gates was killing it at Kent State. I expect that trend to continue.
6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU (Philadelphia 9:50 pm)- Two years ago Eric Maynor lit up duke as VCU pulled a big first round upset (also as an 11 seed). Maynor is averaging 22 points per game in his senior campaign and he is added by Sophomore big man Larry Sanders. VCU is certainly capable of a big upset.
5. Illinois vs. 12. Western Kentucky (Portland 9:55 pm)- Another possible 12/5 upset. Western Kentucky was in the sweet 16 last season. They are probably not as good this time around, but Illinois has been a bit up and down. They will likely be without or at the very best with the limited services of their starting point guard. (And that concludes day 1)
Friday:
8. Oklahoma State vs. 9. Tennessee (Dayton 12:25)- Another 8 vs. 9 battle and this could be a high scoring game. Both of these two teams like to run. Tennessee has been very inconsistent but they have the talent to give teams trouble. (Quick tangent here…the sound at wherever I watch the games in Vegas needs to be on the Dayton Regional where Bill Raftery is doing color commentary. Raftery is the Babe Ruth of sports announcing. He defines the position. Whether he’s telling you what defense a team is starting in (MANTOMAN) or telling you how clutch a player is for making a huge play (ONIONS) or announcing a game as a Pitt player breaks the backboard “Send it in Jerome!” Raftery brings this flair to the job that is fun, but not over the top. Raftery understands the game but does not annoy you with his own personal agendas. Bill Simmons can have Gus Johnson… I’ll take Bill Raftery every time.)
3. Kansas vs. 14. North Dakota State (Minneapolis 12:30)- 2 of the last 3 years Kansas has been eliminated in round 1 (by Bucknell and Bradley). North Dakota State is a great story making the NCAA tournament in their first year of Division 1 college basketball. They redshirted this year’s senior class a few years back so they would be available for their first year in Division 1. Ben Westbrook is scoring over 22 per game and has gone for 60 this year. I do not think North Dakota State will do it, but I am very intrigued by this game (particularly since Kansas has lost to Texas Tech and Baylor in the last two weeks).
6. Marquette vs. 11. Utah State (Boise 12:30)- People think Marquette is done without James. I know they have lost 5 of 6, but those games were to 1 seeds and 3 seeds (yea every loss) and three were ridiculously close. I think they are getting their act together. I am anxious to see them come to play against Utah State (and in the next round I think their guards are too good to be bothered by the Missouri press). I also do not know what it is about the Boise location but it always seems to produce the best NCAA tournament early round games. I swear one of these years I am going to make a trip to Boise for the opening rounds.
6. Arizona State vs. 11. Temple (Miami 2:45 pm)- Another 6/11 game of intrigue. James Harden vs. Deonte Christmas will be a really good matchup.
6. West Virginia vs. 11. Dayton (Minneapolis 3 pm)- West Virginia has really been valued this year by guys like Ken Pomeroy who calculate offensive and defensive efficiency. They are 1 of 6 teams in the country to be in the top twenty nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (Every champion since 2005 has had that trait). Huggins 13-3 in his career in first round games and has not loss an opening round game as anything higher than an 8 seed. I think WVU makes a statement here and I look for them to make a run.
5. Utah vs. 12. Arizona (Miami 7:10pm)- I think a 5 seed was very generous for Utah (I had them as a 7). Many people do not think Arizona earned their way in, but they have some big time quality victories. With Arizona it always depends on which team shows up. I think they have a great set to put the “upset.”
7. Boston College vs. 10. USC (Minneapolis, 7:20)- Boston College is another team with some great wins and bad losses. The USC Trojans have been facing elimination since Pac Ten tournament play began. I like their chances to continue their run of success.
4. Xavier vs. 13. Portland State (Boise 7:25)- Reading up on Portland State they are a much more dangerous team for Xavier than I originally thought. I think they are going to really pressure Xavier’s point guards, which tends to result in turnovers for X. The key for Portland State will be hitting threes. Xavier has lost 5 of their last 10 and at times to teams not as good as Portland State. This could be another game where the magic of Boise shines through.
4. Wake Forest vs. 13. Cleveland State (Miami 9:40)- I thought Wake Forest earned a 3 seed, but the committee thought differently. A 3 seed would have produced a much more favorable matchup. Cleveland State is very good having already beaten Syracuse and played WVU pretty tough this season. If Wake Forest shows up and plays their best they will win, but they have struggled against lesser teams from time to time this year.
8. Ohio State vs. 9. Siena (Dayton 9:40)- Can Siena overcome the home court advantage that Ohio State will have? Siena is a very good basketball team that as a 13 seed last year was able to advance to the second round. This year they get a better matchup, but in a tougher venue. Ohio State seems to be playing their best basketball. I expect them to move on, but Siena should give them a fight.
5. Florida State vs. 12. Wisconsin (Boise 9:55)- I think Florida State was very under-seeded. They are a really good team. The more I have looked at Wisconsin’s resume the less impressed I have been. Bo Ryan’s teams are always dangerous, but I think the Seminoles take care of business.
Most Likely First Round Upsets in order of likelihood…I think you will see 4 or 5 (11 seeds and below)
12. Arizona over 5. Utah
11. VCU over 6. UCLA
11. Temple over 6. Arizona State
12. Western Kentucky over 5. Illinois
13. Mississippi State over 4. Washington
13. Cleveland State over 4. Wake Forest
11. Utah State over 6. Marquette
12. Wisconsin over 5. Florida State
14. North Dakota State over 3. Kansas
13. Akron over 4. Gonzaga
11. Dayton over 6. West Virginia
Sleeper Teams that can make the Sweet 16 and beyond, in order of likelihood (seeded 6 and below…I think there will be 3-5)
West Virginia
Marquette
Texas
Western Kentucky
Michigan
Arizona
Clemson
Tennessee
Southern Cal
Boston College
Mississippi State
Maryland
VCU
6 Final Four Sleepers (3 seeds and Below)
Syracuse
Villanova
Purdue
West Virginia
Gonzaga
Florida State
My Final 4
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Memphis
Championship
Pitt over U of L
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Me vs. The Selection Committee
All in all it was a pretty good year for me predicting the field of 65. I nailed 27 of the 65 teams exactly on their seed-line and an additional 32 of 65 within 1 of their seed-line. So the field as a whole I got 59-65 either on or within 1 seed-line of their eventual seed. I did not have any team seeded any more than 2 lines from the selection committee. You may not be surprised, but I really think the committee did the best job I have ever seen them do this year. Here is a look at the teams I nailed exact as well as the teams I was within 1 line on.
Teams I nailed their seed (seeds before the name)- 27 of 65
1. Louisville
1. Pitt
1. UNC
1. UCONN
2. Memphis
2. Michigan State
2. Duke
2. Oklahoma
3. Syracuse
3. Villanova
4. Washington
6. UCLA
6. Arizona State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Butler
10. Southern Cal
11. Utah State
11. Temple
12. Arizona
14. American
15. Cal State Northridge
15. Binghampton
15. Robert Morris
16. Chattanooga
16. Radford
16. Alabama State
16. Morehead State
Teams I was within one seed line (32 of 65)
Boston College, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga, Cleveland State, Wake Forest, Portland State, Marquette, Cornell, California, Missouri, Western Kentucky, VCU, Clemson, Minnesota, Stephen F Austin, BYU, Kansas, North Dakota State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Maryland, Dayton, Morgan State, Texas, Michigan, Purdue, Xavier, Akron, Illinois, Ohio State, Siena
My Six Big Misses
Utah- I had Utah as a 7 seed (and the last 7 seed at that) and the committee made them a five. Needless to say I think they are too high. Utah has great RPI numbers, which probably explains their lofty seed. They do not, however have a ton of high profile wins. In the end I am fine with the seed, but I just happen to disagree with the merits of it.
Florida State- I think this team has inexplicably flown under the radar all season. Not even a run to the finals of the ACC tournament was enough to move them up. I had them as a 3, they probably had the body of work of a 4 seed. Tough break being a 5 and drawing dangerous Wisconsin team to open the tournament. Still I do not think Florida State can be too upset with playing a fading Xavier team in the second round.
Wisconsin- I think the Committee got it right with Wisconsin. I had them as my 5th to last team in. It looks like the committee had them as their second to last team or last team. Their resume really does not jump out at you. I probably had them slightly too high.
LSU- I thought the committee would give more credit to LSU’s success in a very bad SEC. I am thrilled to see that this was not the case. I had LSU as a 6…I think an 8 seed is much closer to where they deserve to be. It was very clear from their seed and then Tennessee’s seed that the committee did not think very highly of the SEC this season. I applaud them for this judgment.
Tennessee- Another decision I applaud the committee for. I had them as a 7, the committee made them a 9. Tennessee has a strong strength of schedule but has been about as up and down as a team can be. They played in a conference that was way down and only managed a share of the Eastern Division Title. Well done by the committee.
East Tennessee State- Portland State, Cornell and East Tennessee State currently are 114, 115, and 116 in the RPI respectively. Portland State is a 13 seed, Cornell is a 14 seed and East Tennessee State is only a 16 seed. I think they were seeded too low, but seeding those last teams from small conference is somewhat of a crapshoot.
All in all I think the committee did a fantastic job this year and put together a very good NCAA tournament field. I feel bad for San Diego State, but with the conference tournament upsets a deserving team or two (Penn State) was going to be left out. I’ll have more throughout the week including a list of my favorite matchups of round 1, some sleeper teams, some possible upsets and some teams I think got great draws for the type of game they like to play.
Teams I nailed their seed (seeds before the name)- 27 of 65
1. Louisville
1. Pitt
1. UNC
1. UCONN
2. Memphis
2. Michigan State
2. Duke
2. Oklahoma
3. Syracuse
3. Villanova
4. Washington
6. UCLA
6. Arizona State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Butler
10. Southern Cal
11. Utah State
11. Temple
12. Arizona
14. American
15. Cal State Northridge
15. Binghampton
15. Robert Morris
16. Chattanooga
16. Radford
16. Alabama State
16. Morehead State
Teams I was within one seed line (32 of 65)
Boston College, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga, Cleveland State, Wake Forest, Portland State, Marquette, Cornell, California, Missouri, Western Kentucky, VCU, Clemson, Minnesota, Stephen F Austin, BYU, Kansas, North Dakota State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Maryland, Dayton, Morgan State, Texas, Michigan, Purdue, Xavier, Akron, Illinois, Ohio State, Siena
My Six Big Misses
Utah- I had Utah as a 7 seed (and the last 7 seed at that) and the committee made them a five. Needless to say I think they are too high. Utah has great RPI numbers, which probably explains their lofty seed. They do not, however have a ton of high profile wins. In the end I am fine with the seed, but I just happen to disagree with the merits of it.
Florida State- I think this team has inexplicably flown under the radar all season. Not even a run to the finals of the ACC tournament was enough to move them up. I had them as a 3, they probably had the body of work of a 4 seed. Tough break being a 5 and drawing dangerous Wisconsin team to open the tournament. Still I do not think Florida State can be too upset with playing a fading Xavier team in the second round.
Wisconsin- I think the Committee got it right with Wisconsin. I had them as my 5th to last team in. It looks like the committee had them as their second to last team or last team. Their resume really does not jump out at you. I probably had them slightly too high.
LSU- I thought the committee would give more credit to LSU’s success in a very bad SEC. I am thrilled to see that this was not the case. I had LSU as a 6…I think an 8 seed is much closer to where they deserve to be. It was very clear from their seed and then Tennessee’s seed that the committee did not think very highly of the SEC this season. I applaud them for this judgment.
Tennessee- Another decision I applaud the committee for. I had them as a 7, the committee made them a 9. Tennessee has a strong strength of schedule but has been about as up and down as a team can be. They played in a conference that was way down and only managed a share of the Eastern Division Title. Well done by the committee.
East Tennessee State- Portland State, Cornell and East Tennessee State currently are 114, 115, and 116 in the RPI respectively. Portland State is a 13 seed, Cornell is a 14 seed and East Tennessee State is only a 16 seed. I think they were seeded too low, but seeding those last teams from small conference is somewhat of a crapshoot.
All in all I think the committee did a fantastic job this year and put together a very good NCAA tournament field. I feel bad for San Diego State, but with the conference tournament upsets a deserving team or two (Penn State) was going to be left out. I’ll have more throughout the week including a list of my favorite matchups of round 1, some sleeper teams, some possible upsets and some teams I think got great draws for the type of game they like to play.
My Final Bracket Projection
A couple of things of note as I unveil my final bracket projection before the committee announces the field of 65 at 6 pm. First I have Ohio State and Purdue slotted and the results of there game will have no outcome on my bracket. I think their body of work is complete enough without their third game in three days meaning much.
My number 1 seeds are Louisville, Pitt, UNC and UCONN in that order. Louisville by virtue of winning the Big East regular season and tournament title has earned the number 1 overall seed. I considered Memphis for a one seed but in the end I do not think their body of work compares to the other four teams. I think they are certainly better now than early in the season, but we have nothing to compare them to the other one seeds with. With the absence of a meaningful way to evaluate them against the other 1 seeds I cannot justify putting them on the top line of the bracket.
I think Syracuse has played themselves into a 3 seed with their run to the Big East tournament finals. Syracuse has wins over Kansas, UCONN and Memphis… I don’t think any team in the country has a more impressive set of three victories. Similarly I think Florida State’s run in the ACC played them into a 3 seed.
I have never seen such a run of dwindling at large spots because of conference tournaments. The Horizon, Atlantic Ten, Pac Ten, and SEC all eliminated at large opportunities for a number of teams.
My breakdown by conference is as follows:
Big East- 7
ACC- 7
Big 10- 7
Pac Ten- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 3
Atlantic 10- 3
Mountain West- 2
Horizon- 2
All other leagues- 1 each
Last Four In
Dayton
Minnesota
Maryland
Arizona
First Five Out
San Diego State
Penn State
Creighton
St Mary’s
Auburn
Here are some thoughts on those last teams in and first few out.
Dayton- I am very confident they are in.
Minnesota- Also very confident they are in. Their non-conference victory over Louisville has a lot of legs and I think they did enough in the Big 10.
Maryland- I think they left the committee with a good impression and they have three of the best victories in the country beating Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. They have been inconsistent much of the year, which hurts, but they won when they had to in the ACC tournament to get a bid. I think the committee will put them in because of that.
Arizona- Here is the spot I am most likely to be wrong on. Many have Arizona out. They have been dreadful on the road going 2-9, which will hurt. In the past the committee has continually rewarded teams that scheduled and won out of conference. In their non-conference schedule the Wildcats beat Kansas, San Diego State, and Gonzaga. In the conference they beat Washington, UCLA and Southern Cal. That gives Arizona 6 RPI top 50 victories (two top 25), which is considerably better than most of the teams they are competing with. I think the committee once again will reward a team that scheduled ambitiously and beat some teams by giving them the last spot.
The Five I Have Just Out
San Diego State- They did everything that I thought they had to do in the Mountain West tournament and it might not be enough. I would have no problem with the committee selecting San Diego State over Arizona or Maryland.
Penn State- They scheduled atrociously out of conference and the committee has generally not been kind to bubble teams that scheduled poorly. They have several big wins in conference play including two big road wins over Michigan State and Illinois. The committee could put them in because of those road wins, I think they come up just short.
Creighton- Left the committee with a bad impression getting waxed in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament semifinals. Their victory over Dayton does not look as good as it once did. Their other big victories are New Mexico, Northern Iowa and Illinois State…those wins are simply not good enough. I think Creighton is out.
St Mary’s- I keep hearing the case that this team is different with Patty Mills, which is probably true. They still do not have the necessary wins to tell me they are a tournament team. I know their record with Mills is very good, but they have not really beaten anyone of significance. They lost all three to Gonzaga (including getting smoked in the West Coast Conference finals). Their best victories are over Utah State and San Diego State. I think side by side with the rest of the bubble teams that is not enough.
Auburn- They played really well down the stretch in a very bad conference. I think they needed to beat Tennessee to have a case. They did not do that. They have nothing to distinguish themselves in their non-conference play. They are out.
For my bracket i followed a true S-curve not worrying about locations (for instance Louisville will likely be sent to Dayton for their first round games). In the true S curve the top 1 seed would play in the region with the lowest 2 seed. The only shifts i made were to avoid early matchups between conference teams and to make sure protected seeds from the same conference were not in the same region. This took more work this year because 9 of the top 12 seeds in my bracket are from the Big East and ACC. All conference champions are in bold for your convenience. With all that out there, here is my field of 65:
Indianapolis Region
1. Louisville
16. Radford/ Chattanooga
8. Boston College
9. Texas A&M
4. Washington
13. Northern Iowa
5. Gonzaga
12. Cleveland State
3. Wake Forest
14. Portland State
6. LSU
11. Utah State
7. Marquette
10. Southern Cal
2. Oklahoma
15. Cornell
Boston Region
1. Pittsburgh
16. Alabama State
8. California
9. Butler
4. Missouri
13. Western Kentucky
5. Arizona State
12. VCU
3. Villanova
14. American
6. Clemson
11. Minnesota
7. Tennessee
10. Wisconsin
2. Duke
15. Stephen F Austin
Memphis Region
1. North Carolina
16. Morehead State
8. Oklahoma State
9. BYU
4. Kansas
13. North Dakota State
5. West Virginia
12. Mississippi State
3. Syracuse
14. East Tennessee State
6. UCLA
11. Maryland
7. Utah
10. Dayton
2. Michigan State
15. Cal State Northridge
Arizona Region
1. UCONN
16. Morgan State
8. Texas
9. Michigan
4. Purdue
13. Binghampton
5. Xavier
12. Arizona
3. Florida State
14. Akron
6. Illinois
11. Temple
7. Ohio State
10. Siena
2. Memphis
15. Robert Morris
My number 1 seeds are Louisville, Pitt, UNC and UCONN in that order. Louisville by virtue of winning the Big East regular season and tournament title has earned the number 1 overall seed. I considered Memphis for a one seed but in the end I do not think their body of work compares to the other four teams. I think they are certainly better now than early in the season, but we have nothing to compare them to the other one seeds with. With the absence of a meaningful way to evaluate them against the other 1 seeds I cannot justify putting them on the top line of the bracket.
I think Syracuse has played themselves into a 3 seed with their run to the Big East tournament finals. Syracuse has wins over Kansas, UCONN and Memphis… I don’t think any team in the country has a more impressive set of three victories. Similarly I think Florida State’s run in the ACC played them into a 3 seed.
I have never seen such a run of dwindling at large spots because of conference tournaments. The Horizon, Atlantic Ten, Pac Ten, and SEC all eliminated at large opportunities for a number of teams.
My breakdown by conference is as follows:
Big East- 7
ACC- 7
Big 10- 7
Pac Ten- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 3
Atlantic 10- 3
Mountain West- 2
Horizon- 2
All other leagues- 1 each
Last Four In
Dayton
Minnesota
Maryland
Arizona
First Five Out
San Diego State
Penn State
Creighton
St Mary’s
Auburn
Here are some thoughts on those last teams in and first few out.
Dayton- I am very confident they are in.
Minnesota- Also very confident they are in. Their non-conference victory over Louisville has a lot of legs and I think they did enough in the Big 10.
Maryland- I think they left the committee with a good impression and they have three of the best victories in the country beating Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. They have been inconsistent much of the year, which hurts, but they won when they had to in the ACC tournament to get a bid. I think the committee will put them in because of that.
Arizona- Here is the spot I am most likely to be wrong on. Many have Arizona out. They have been dreadful on the road going 2-9, which will hurt. In the past the committee has continually rewarded teams that scheduled and won out of conference. In their non-conference schedule the Wildcats beat Kansas, San Diego State, and Gonzaga. In the conference they beat Washington, UCLA and Southern Cal. That gives Arizona 6 RPI top 50 victories (two top 25), which is considerably better than most of the teams they are competing with. I think the committee once again will reward a team that scheduled ambitiously and beat some teams by giving them the last spot.
The Five I Have Just Out
San Diego State- They did everything that I thought they had to do in the Mountain West tournament and it might not be enough. I would have no problem with the committee selecting San Diego State over Arizona or Maryland.
Penn State- They scheduled atrociously out of conference and the committee has generally not been kind to bubble teams that scheduled poorly. They have several big wins in conference play including two big road wins over Michigan State and Illinois. The committee could put them in because of those road wins, I think they come up just short.
Creighton- Left the committee with a bad impression getting waxed in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament semifinals. Their victory over Dayton does not look as good as it once did. Their other big victories are New Mexico, Northern Iowa and Illinois State…those wins are simply not good enough. I think Creighton is out.
St Mary’s- I keep hearing the case that this team is different with Patty Mills, which is probably true. They still do not have the necessary wins to tell me they are a tournament team. I know their record with Mills is very good, but they have not really beaten anyone of significance. They lost all three to Gonzaga (including getting smoked in the West Coast Conference finals). Their best victories are over Utah State and San Diego State. I think side by side with the rest of the bubble teams that is not enough.
Auburn- They played really well down the stretch in a very bad conference. I think they needed to beat Tennessee to have a case. They did not do that. They have nothing to distinguish themselves in their non-conference play. They are out.
For my bracket i followed a true S-curve not worrying about locations (for instance Louisville will likely be sent to Dayton for their first round games). In the true S curve the top 1 seed would play in the region with the lowest 2 seed. The only shifts i made were to avoid early matchups between conference teams and to make sure protected seeds from the same conference were not in the same region. This took more work this year because 9 of the top 12 seeds in my bracket are from the Big East and ACC. All conference champions are in bold for your convenience. With all that out there, here is my field of 65:
Indianapolis Region
1. Louisville
16. Radford/ Chattanooga
8. Boston College
9. Texas A&M
4. Washington
13. Northern Iowa
5. Gonzaga
12. Cleveland State
3. Wake Forest
14. Portland State
6. LSU
11. Utah State
7. Marquette
10. Southern Cal
2. Oklahoma
15. Cornell
Boston Region
1. Pittsburgh
16. Alabama State
8. California
9. Butler
4. Missouri
13. Western Kentucky
5. Arizona State
12. VCU
3. Villanova
14. American
6. Clemson
11. Minnesota
7. Tennessee
10. Wisconsin
2. Duke
15. Stephen F Austin
Memphis Region
1. North Carolina
16. Morehead State
8. Oklahoma State
9. BYU
4. Kansas
13. North Dakota State
5. West Virginia
12. Mississippi State
3. Syracuse
14. East Tennessee State
6. UCLA
11. Maryland
7. Utah
10. Dayton
2. Michigan State
15. Cal State Northridge
Arizona Region
1. UCONN
16. Morgan State
8. Texas
9. Michigan
4. Purdue
13. Binghampton
5. Xavier
12. Arizona
3. Florida State
14. Akron
6. Illinois
11. Temple
7. Ohio State
10. Siena
2. Memphis
15. Robert Morris
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
First Projection of the Field
Here is my first projection for the NCAA field this selection Sunday. I think it is important to note a few things. There are always a few procedural changes. Protected teams from the same conference cannot play each other until the final four…so for example I flipped three seeds Wake Forest and Villanova to avoid a Sweet 16 clash of Wake Forest and Duke as well as an Elite Eight clash of UCONN and Villanova. Also the committee likes to avoid teams from the same conference meeting in the first two rounds, so there were a few switches made based on that.
I only have 2 SEC teams in my field at this time. I think there is still a good chance another can make the finals to play themselves in(and I think they need to make the finals to do that). Teams that have already won automatic births are in BOLD. Teams that will need an automatic birth to make it have their conference in brackets after their name. I think Providence must beat Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. I think VT, Maryland, and Miami Florida must win two in the ACC tournament. I think Northwestern has to win 2, maybe three. I think Kansas State has to make the finals of the Big 12. My last four in are pretty weak so it will be easy for them to fall out, but others behind have to step up.
I will have one more projection on Selection Sunday, shortly before the brackets are released.
Indianapolis Region
1. Pittsburgh
16. Radford/Alabama State (SWAC)
8. Butler
9. Tennessee
4. Xavier
13. Northern Iowa
5. Missouri
12. Cleveland State
3. Villanova
14. Cornell
6. Arizona State
11. Siena
7. West Virginia
10. Penn State
2. Duke
15. Morehead State
Boston Region
1. UCONN
16. Steven F Austin (Southland)
8. Boston College
9. Ohio State
4. Washington
13. North Dakota State
5. Clemson
12. Utah State (WAC)
3. Wake Forest
14. American (Patriot)
6. Marquette
11. Minnesota
7. Utah
10. Michigan
2. Memphis
15. Cal State Northridge (Big West)
Memphis Region
1. North Carolina
16. Chattanooga
8. Texas A&M
9. Arizona
4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky
5. Syracuse
12. VCU
3. Kansas
14. Portland State (Big Sky)
6. California
11. San Diego State
7. Gonzaga
10. Oklahoma State
2. Michigan State
15. Bowling Green (MAC)
Arizona Region
1. Oklahoma
16. Morgan State (MEAC)
8. Dayton
9. BYU
4. Florida State
13. Binghampton (American East)
5. UCLA
12. New Mexico
3. Illinois
14. East Tennessee State
6. LSU
11. Creighton
7. Texas
10. Wisconsin
2. Louisville
16. Robert Morris (Northeast)
Last Four In
San Diego State
Minnesota
Creighton
New Mexico
First Four Out
Providence
UNLV
Kansas State
Miami (Florida)
Next Four Out
Virginia Tech
St. Mary’s
Northwestern
Maryland
Still in the Mix
Maryland
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Utah State
Temple
I only have 2 SEC teams in my field at this time. I think there is still a good chance another can make the finals to play themselves in(and I think they need to make the finals to do that). Teams that have already won automatic births are in BOLD. Teams that will need an automatic birth to make it have their conference in brackets after their name. I think Providence must beat Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. I think VT, Maryland, and Miami Florida must win two in the ACC tournament. I think Northwestern has to win 2, maybe three. I think Kansas State has to make the finals of the Big 12. My last four in are pretty weak so it will be easy for them to fall out, but others behind have to step up.
I will have one more projection on Selection Sunday, shortly before the brackets are released.
Indianapolis Region
1. Pittsburgh
16. Radford/Alabama State (SWAC)
8. Butler
9. Tennessee
4. Xavier
13. Northern Iowa
5. Missouri
12. Cleveland State
3. Villanova
14. Cornell
6. Arizona State
11. Siena
7. West Virginia
10. Penn State
2. Duke
15. Morehead State
Boston Region
1. UCONN
16. Steven F Austin (Southland)
8. Boston College
9. Ohio State
4. Washington
13. North Dakota State
5. Clemson
12. Utah State (WAC)
3. Wake Forest
14. American (Patriot)
6. Marquette
11. Minnesota
7. Utah
10. Michigan
2. Memphis
15. Cal State Northridge (Big West)
Memphis Region
1. North Carolina
16. Chattanooga
8. Texas A&M
9. Arizona
4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky
5. Syracuse
12. VCU
3. Kansas
14. Portland State (Big Sky)
6. California
11. San Diego State
7. Gonzaga
10. Oklahoma State
2. Michigan State
15. Bowling Green (MAC)
Arizona Region
1. Oklahoma
16. Morgan State (MEAC)
8. Dayton
9. BYU
4. Florida State
13. Binghampton (American East)
5. UCLA
12. New Mexico
3. Illinois
14. East Tennessee State
6. LSU
11. Creighton
7. Texas
10. Wisconsin
2. Louisville
16. Robert Morris (Northeast)
Last Four In
San Diego State
Minnesota
Creighton
New Mexico
First Four Out
Providence
UNLV
Kansas State
Miami (Florida)
Next Four Out
Virginia Tech
St. Mary’s
Northwestern
Maryland
Still in the Mix
Maryland
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Utah State
Temple
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