Why I Think Wes Miller Will Bring UC Back

I've seen many Bearcat fans who are very down on this team and Wes Miller in general.  I understand the longing for Bearcat Basketball to immediately get back to the Huggins Glory Years, or even the sustained success of the Mick Cronin era, but I think that longing has blinded too many to the strides this team is making.  It's year 2 of the Wes Miller era.  He hasn't achieved enough to know whether he's the guy.  However, I will admit to being optimistic about the direction the program is heading under Wes.  Here is why I see more reasons for optimism than many seem to.

1. The UC basketball program was in a very bad place when Wes took over. Fans have not considered this factor nearly enough. UC finished 116 kenpom in Brannen's last year. Keith Williams (By far UC's best player that season) was gone. Tari Easton (by far UC's most talented player that season) was gone. 3 guys that had given real minutes were on the roster (JD, DDJ, and MAW). Wes took the job very late in the game. We weren't significantly better positioned than Mick when he took over and this time we didn't have the Big East...or a decade and a half of being a top 10 basketball program to sell recruits on. This was an uphill battle.

2. The jump in quality of play they've made from the last two seasons to this one is substantial. Too many are underselling this. And the key guys on the roster this year are largely the same.  A Bearcat fan friend expressed concerns about "same guy syndrome" coming into this season. The core of this team is largely the same as last year except we lost our two centers and replaced them with Vik (who wasn't ready the year before), lost our best wing defender to injury, and added Nolley.

This team as of right now has jumped 50 spots in kenpom from last year's team. That is an enormous jump. Here is the climb UC made Mick's first 5 years via kenpom:

Year 1: 141 kenpom (11-19 overall)
Year 2: 102 kenpom (13-19 overall)
Year 3: 86 kenpom (18-14 overall)
Year 4: 68 kenpom (19-16 overall)
Year 5: 21 kenpom (26-9 overall) - this was the big jump. The breakthrough we were waiting for.

When you evaluate rebuilds, it's really silly to not consider where you are coming from...and look at improvements. Yea...we'd all feel significantly better with more good wins. But the raise in quality of play, with largely the same team, is undeniable. which brings me to my next point, and my biggest reason for optimism with Wes.

3. The key players on this team have made massive leaps as basketball players. This is the player development and finding the right roles for guys aspect that has me very excited about Wes.

Vik was largely lost last season. We could see the talent, but the feel wasn't there. Vik has been exceptional this season. Wes has him understanding how to play off screens and play downhill on offense. He has him with a better feel in the post of when to attack and when to anticipate the double team. He rarely turns it over, he's an elite rebounder, and he is hitting 62% of his shots. On defense, he has cut down on his silly fouls, while still being incredibly disruptive and a damn good help defender. His jump is a testament to him and the good coaching he has received.

DDJ has become an efficient offensive player. His inefficiency on offense was often a major detriment to the Bearcats the last two years despite his skill. This year he has a 114.2 kenpom offensive rating (all three key guys are that or higher). He's done it by taking fewer bad shots (he still takes some) and playing to his facilitation skills. He has the highest assist rate on the team (and the 92nd-best in the country)..and that has gotten better as the season has gone on. He's just so much better now.

Likewise Nolley has become a far more efficient player. He could always shoot, but at Memphis he was a barely above average offensive player once you factored in turnovers and shot selection. He's taking better shots, he's turning it over lessand he has career highs in rebound rate. Dude was a great talent who has taken his game to a new level here.

JD is having a really bad shooting year, but despite that, his offensive rating is exactly what it has been. That's because he has been better in nearly every aspect of his game. His turnover rate is the lowest it has ever been (it's the 50th best in the country). He's doubled his assist rate from last season. He's not forcing nearly as many bad shots (though as we all know, JD is still JD and we wish he'd be better). He's a flawed player, but Wes has done a good job minimizing his flaws.

I think he's maximized the effectiveness of MAW and Ody as well. These aren't guys that ideally you'd have to play major minutes, but we do and do so effectively.

4. Closely related to that, Wes has shown an ability to adapt on the fly with his team. If you read anything Chad Brendel was reporting on from the preseason, he said this team was going to really struggle to defend and rebound. That was absolutely the case early (particularly defend...they mostly rebounded OK other than the OSU and Temple games). Wes tweaked what they did in late November/early December. Their defensive numbers have been climbing rapidly ever since. They've been a top-20 defense since December 1. Up until the second half of the Tulane game (played without their only real rim protector), they were elite at protecting the rim while also running teams off the 3-point line. They are a very good offensive and defensive rebounding team (again with Vik..going to be interesting to see how they adjust without him). Their significant improvement and adapting within the season is very encouraging to me.

5. He's doing work on the recruiting trail and seems to be opening some doors to making a bigger leap in the future.

I'm not asking fans to give him a full 5 years like Mick had before making the tournament. There are some opportunities to improve more quickly now... but here's the thing. He has been improving more quickly. 50 spots in kenpom is a big leap (and they've honestly been much better than that since early December). If the trend continues, the results we're looking for will come.

Maybe the trend doesn't continue. Maybe he won't be the guy. But what I have seen so far does have me optimistic.