Projecting the Tournament Field

Here is what I think the NCAA tournament field looks like as of this morning. I bold automatic bids that are already decided, and I italicize teams that only get in if they win their conference tournament.

1 Seeds- Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Missouri

2 Seeds- Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, Ohio State

3 Seeds- Baylor, Michigan, Marquette, Wisconsin

4 Seeds- Indiana, Georgetown, Wichita State, Florida State

5 Seeds- Cincinnati, Louisville, Creighton, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds- Notre Dame, Florida, Murray State, Memphis

7 Seeds- San Diego State, Temple, Purdue, St Marys

8 Seeds- UNLV, Iowa State, New Mexico, Gonzaga

9 Seeds- Kansas State, St Louis, Alabama, Southern Mississippi

10 Seeds- Uconn, Colorado State, VCU, Harvard

11 Seeds- West Virginia, Xavier, Long Beach State, Texas

12 Seeds- South Florida, Virginia, Cal, Seton Hall/NC State

13 Seeds- Drexel/BYU, Arizona, New Mexico State, Akron

14 Seeds- Davidson, South Dakota State, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds- Detroit, Loyola (MD), Long Island U, Stony Brook

16 Seeds- UNC Ashville, Lehigh, Norfolk State/Western Kentucky, Lamar/Mississippi Valley State

Last 7 In:

South Florida

Virginia

California

Seton Hall

Drexel

BYU

NC State

First 7 Out:

Marshall

Mississippi State

Oral Roberts

Tennessee

Iona

Ole Miss

Washington

I listed last 7 in, in the order I have them, and first 7 out in the order I have them. I chose 7 because I could see the committee having any one of these teams in or out. I ranked them based on how the committee would evaluate them based on their body of work, but there are a lot of close calls. I though Mississippi State was locked in heading into this week, but a disastrous loss in the first round of the SEC tournament, along with the atrocious basketball they played late this season has me thinking they will miss.

Now lets look at it a different way. I think Oral Roberts, Tennessee, Iona, Mississippi State and Washington should be out at this point (though I would not be surprised if the committee gave any of them a bid). If Marshall wins today in the CUSA title, they earn the automatic bid, and one of the last teams in gets bounced. If Marshall has a strong showing against Memphis in the finals and loses close I could see them jumping NC State or BYU for that final bid.

Ole Miss also may be able to play their way in with a win today and a good showing against UK in the SEC title. If UK does not make the SEC title, I think Ole Miss needs to win the SEC tournament to get a bid. Still a nice run at the end of the season for Andy Kennedy's squad that looked dead to rights a few weeks ago.

I think the winner of tonight's Big East Championship can get a 4 seed. I certainly believe Louisville will be a 4 seed with a win tonight, but if the Bearcats win tonight they will have more good wins than any team in the country not named Michigan State. That has to mean something. Combined with a Big East Championship, and a recent win over the number 2 overall seed in the tournament I think that will be enough to overcome the non-conference faults on the schedule, both strength of schedule and performance (well realistically if those were not there a 2 seed would be in play).

UK is locked into the overall number 1 seed, and I think Syracuse is locked into the number 2 overall seed. Any of the next 6 could end up with those final two one seeds. If Michigan State wins the Big 10 tournament, I think one will be theirs (based on how many great wins they have). If Ohio State wins I think they will need a Missouri loss to Baylor or someone other than Duke/UNC winning the ACC for them to get up to a 1 seed. A win likely keeps Missouri on the 1 line unless UNC wins the ACC AND Michigan State wins the Big 10. (I hope this all makes sense)

I may try to break it all into a bracket tomorrow, I may just give seeds. We will see.

Go Bearcats!

Ranking the Bubble 2012

Note on my evaluation process: I do not use any computer rankings other than RPI. I would love to factor in KenPom and Sagerin, but the committee uses RPI as the lens which it evaluates teams and I want to try to reflect the committee as best I can. The committee is technically allowed to use other measures, but the field every year and the mock process consistently show that the RPI is the driving force from which teams are evaluated. This does not mean just what a teams RPI ranking is, instead the committee evaluates who teams beat (top 50, top 100 RPI wins), where they beat them (home or road), who they played (strength of schedule, non-conference strength of schedule) and who teams lose to (bad losses, good losses). I focus most on teams that prove they can beat other tournament teams as traditionally this has been the area where the committee focuses the most. When teams are close SOS and non-conference SOS become very important. The committee says they use the eye test, which is hard to evaluate though with borderline teams, but I try to take it into account.

The good news. Having gone through all of the resumes I cannot conceive of a way the Bearcats could possibly be left out at this point. I have them in the 8-9 seed range at this point with the potential to go up and likely not fall any lower than a 10. You will see as I go through this team by team, but the bottom of the bubble is very weak (it gets said every year, but this year at least to me it really stand out). It was a year where I look at the field and wish the field was only 64 teams. As I see it right now there are 24 teams competing for 11-12 spots (depending on conference championships).

Teams I am pretty sure are in no matter what:

West Virginia- Bob Huggins team managed to get to .500 in Big East play and sits at number 43 in the RPI. Over the course of the season the Mountaineers have wins over Cincinnati, Kansas State and Georgetown who all will be tournament teams as well as wins over bubble teams Miami(Fl) and South Florida. They also beat MAC regular season champion, Akron. They currently have the number 11 SOS in the country. Even with a loss to Uconn I see no way West Virginia gets left out of the field.

Colorado State- I think the RPI numbers are so strong that I do not see them getting left out at this point. Colorado State sits at 22 in the RPI with the number 8 Strength of Schedule. They finished over .500 in what is considered the 5^th rated conference according to the RPI (ahead of the Southeastern Conference and just behind the ACC). In a vacuum this would not be enough but Colorado State managed to get wins over each of the top three in that conference (New Mexico, San Diego State, and UNLV) to supplement their strong computer profile. Even a first round loss to TCU would not be a bad enough loss to knock Colorado State out, in my opinion.

Uconn- Finishing below .500 in the Big East and really struggling down the stretch is not good for Uconn, but their overall profile is just vastly superior to the rest of the bubble. Uconn has an RPI of 33 and the number 2 Strength of Schedule in the country. Their profile includes wins over tournament teams Florida State, West Virginia, and Notre Dame. They beat likely NCAA tournament team and at least Co-Champion of the Ivy League, Harvard. They also have wins over bubble teams like Seton Hall and South Florida. They did lose to Seton Hall, and Tennessee (another team sitting squarely on the bubble). Strong computer numbers and very credible wins should get Uconn in at this point, especially considering they avoided the bad loss to Depaul this afternoon.

Mississippi State- With an RPI of 63 and an inability to beat anyone of note down the stretch, Mississippi State certainly does not have a stellar tournament resume. That said, their resume looks strong enough considering the teams they will be competing for bids with. Mississippi State got 3 top 50 RPI wins, beating West Virginia, Alabama and Vandy. They also have wins over bubble teams Arizona (a weak bubble team), Tennessee and Ole Miss (another weak bubble team). Again it is not stellar, but it holds up against the rest. A win in the SEC tournament would be nice, but I think they have done just enough to survive even if they lose their first SEC tournament game.

Harvard- If Princeton beats Penn tonight his will be a moot point as Harvard will earn the automatic bid from the Ivy league. If Penn beats Princeton, Harvard can still earn the automatic bid by beating Penn in a winner take all championship game. If Penn manages to beat Princeton and Harvard I think Harvard will get in. At that point Harvard would have only 5 losses on the year, only one of which would have come against a team outside the RPI top 100. Harvard will have beaten tournament team Florida State and bubble team St Josephs. They'll be close to the bubble, but I think it would be enough.

Teams With Work to Do/ On the Edge

Long Beach State- I think had they ran the table in the Big West they would likely be in, but the loss to Cal State Fullerton makes their bid less certain. Long Beach State will still be the favorite in the Big West tournament and can erase all doubt by taking the automatic birth, but they still have a decent resume even if they lose. Long Beach State went out and tested themselves in the non-conference schedule. They were competitive in games against potential 1 seeds UNC and Kansas. They also played Louisville (another loss) and Creighton (a 2 point loss). While their win at Pitt has not held up, their win against bubble team Xavier certainly helps. Long Beach State may not have beaten enough good teams, but they challenged themselves against the best of the best and held up fairly well. I think if they make the finals of the Big West Tournament the committee would reward them for that, though their resume certainly is not one where them being left out would be surprising.

South Florida- The 12-6 finish in the Big East is very strong, however, they did it by sweeping a weak set of mirror games and then going 6-6 against the rest of the league. Getting wins over tournament teams Cincinnati and Louisville down the stretch helped, however, losing to bubble team WVU did not. I think USF needs to win their first Big East tournament game to feel good about their chances. I think two wins would make them a lock. The Bulls performance in the non-conference portion of the season really hurts them as they have some losses to bad teams and an absolute blowout loss at the hands of Kansas. They are 45 in the RPI, which generally puts BCS teams on the right side of the bubble. I think they are in as of now, but they still have work to do.

Texas- We are beginning to reach the point where I cannot believe I have certain teams in the field. Texas managed to get to 9-9 in the Big 12 and sits at 52 in the RPI. They have a really nice non-conference win over Temple and then wins in conference against tournament teams Kansas State and Iowa State. They could not break through against Baylor, Missouri or Kansas. They also lost to fellow bubble team North Carolina State. I think Texas may get in even with a loss to Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament (though they will be nervous). A win over Iowa State would likely be enough to secure a bid.

Xavier- Yes, Xavier. In my opinion they would be in as of today. Xavier did a good job of scheduling NCAA tournament caliber teams early and they managed to get wins against them. Xavier beat tournament teams Purdue and Cincinnati and also went on the road to beat tournament team Vandy. Xavier sits at 57 in the RPI putting them right on the edge. In conference they were swept by St Louis and lost in their only opportunity against Temple. They also split with fellow bubble team Dayton, but did beat fellow bubble team St Josephs. I think Xavier is in right now and likely to be in with one A10 tournament win. A loss to fellow bubble team Dayton and the Musketeers really start to sweat it out.

BYU- BYU's resume is not good. They have an RPI of 46 which is solid and were 13-5 in the WCC which is very good. They also went 1-4 against the St Mary's/Gonzaga combo and have little else on their resume to supplement that 1 win. The only other meat to their resume is a win over top 50 Nevada and a win over bubble team Oregon (a team likely on the wrong side of the bubble). BYU cannot add at all to their resume. If teams play their way in around them, BYU is in trouble. They may be in the field as of today.

Cal- In my opinion the Pac 12 does not deserve an At-Large bid. The league won 1 game all year against the RPI top 50 outside of conference play (compared to some 30 losses). Cal has the best case for an At Large bid. I have them in the tournament as the league tournament champion and if they do not win the automatic my hope is the committee would not reward them based on their solid RPI of 37. Their resume really has no meat to it at all. Cal has not beaten a single top 50 RPI team all year (their best wins are a sweep of RPI 51 Oregon, which to me puts them above Oregon in the Pac 12 pecking order). They are 6-6 against RPI 51-100 so they do have that going for them...i guess. They could get a bid with a loss in the conference tournament finals, but wow would that be a reach.

Drexel- All my hate on Cal and the Pac Ten and yet I am going to explain why I think Drexel should get an NCAA bid (and more importantly why I think the committee will award them a bid ) unless some other teams step up this week, despite a resume that does not scream tournament team. To me Drexel is a team that the committee is going to have to weigh the eye test and the value of being outright CAA champions with a resume that is incredibly thin. Bearcat fans are familiar with the dreaded SOS talk and Drexel currently has the 223 ranked SOS. Their best non-conference win is over number 93 Princeton. Their best other wins are over NCAA tournament team VCU and a solid George Mason team with an RPI of 81. It is not a strong resume. They also have a loss to fellow bubble team St Josephs. If the committee leaves them out, so be it. Their resume is hard to justify. And yet, they finished the season winning 19 games in a row until they ran into VCU in the conference championship (where VCU essentially gets home court advantage). They lost that championship by 3 points. I think they are going to be one of the best 37 at large teams, but their resume does not necessarily support that. To me Drexel is the hardest bubble team to evaluate this year. As of right now I think they'll be one of the last 4 in, BUT there are lots of teams behind them who will have a chance to play their way in and Drexel out.

Northwestern- They have never made the NCAA tournament and they likely need to beat Michigan to end that streak, though I think as of today they would be one of the last four in. Northwestern finished below .500 in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten was the number 1 conference this year according to the RPI. They have a nice non-conference win over bubble team Seton Hall as well a great win in conference against Michigan State. As far as wins go that, that is really it. 10 of their 12 losses are against RPI top 50 teams and they have zero bad losses as the other two are against RPI top 100 teams. Northwestern has been close to breaking through all year, but without a win against Michigan they likely will fail to dance again.

Tennessee- This is another team that will likely cause some headaches on selection Sunday. As of right now I have them as my last team in the field on the strength of better wins than the teams behind them. At 75, Tennessee would be the lowest rated team to make the tournament since the new RPI was implemented. At one point this season Tennessee was 2-6 with losses to Pittsburgh, Oakland, Austin Peay, and Charleston (not exactly a murderers row). Tennessee also went 2-5 to start SEC play, but they have now won 8 of 9 to finish 2^nd in the solid SEC East. Tennessee has wins over Uconn, Vandy and a sweep of Florida. They also beat bubble team Ole Miss. 13 losses is a ton, especially when you look at some of the weak losses they have, but given the way Tennessee finished and their quality wins I think Tennessee could very well earn a bid on selection Sunday. If they lose their first SEC tournament game it is likely a wrap, but a trip to the finals and Tennessee would likely be on the right side of the bubble.

Out But Could Play Their Way In:

Seton Hall- Seton Hall was sitting pretty and then inexplicably lost to Rutgers and at Depaul. Now Seton Hall finished below .500 in the Big East and has work to do. Wins over West Virginia, Uconn and Georgetown are very strong. They also have a win over bubble team Dayton. Their loss to fellow bubble team Northwestern was their only non-conference loss. Seton Hall cannot afford to lose on Day 1 of the Big East tournament, and may very well need to win on Day 2 to make the NCAA tournament.

Miami (FL)- Every year there is a team that has a couple awesome wins that really screams they are a tournament team (though usually that team is Virginia Tech) but does almost nothing else to support that feeling. This year that team is Miami who won at Duke and beat Florida State. Miami also managed to get to 9-7 in ACC play. That said Miami lost their other 10 games against NCAA tournament caliber teams and bubble competition. These included losses to WVU, Purdue, Memphis Virginia, and bubble team Ole Miss. They were also swept by bubble team NC State. How much does the committee value big wins vs. those losses? Miami cannot afford to lose to Georgia Tech and likely needs to beat Florida State for the second time to earn a bid.

NC State- I have NC State below Miami (Fl) in the pecking order despite their sweep of Miami, because NC State's wins are not as good. NC State was not able to beat anyone in the top 4 of the ACC , going 0-6 against Duke, UNC, FSU and Virginia. They did sweep Miami to earn the 5 seed in the ACC tournament (both teams finished 9-7). NC State also has a nice win out of conference over fellow bubble team Texas. That is really about it. I think NC State needs to beat Virginia in the second round of the ACC tournament to have a shot. It absolutely cannot be upset by Boston College in round 1.

St Josephs- Another of the 3 A10 bubble teams. Their non-conference win over bubble team Drexel is nice, and their win over Creighton is excellent. St Josephs also got a big win over Temple to go with a win over bubble team Dayton. They lost to bubble team Xavier. To get in the tournament St Josephs at the very least has to beat Temple again in the A10 semis.

Dayton- The last of the A10 bubble teams has been an enigma this year. They have some great wins that make Dayton seem like a tournament team and some bad losses that make you think the exact opposite. Dayton lost to bubble team St Josephs and split with bubble team Xavier in conference. They also lost to bubble team Seton Hall in the non-conference. They have also inexplicably bad losses against Miami (OH) and Rhode Island. Dayton counters those losses with a win over bubble team Mississippi, a win over Alabama, a win over St. Louis and a great win at Temple. If Dayton beats George Washington it likely sets up a do or die game between them and Xavier. Dayton may also need to beat St. Louis to in the semis to secure a bid.

Mississippi- Andy Kennedy's team seems to be surviving key injuries every single season to finish right around .500 in conference play. To make the tournament they have a lot of work to do, but in the SEC that can be done. In the non-conference schedule they have a win over bubble team Miami (Fl), but a loss to bubble team Dayton. In conference they split with Mississippi State and Alabama who both look like tournament teams. Ole Miss clearly has not done enough on their resume right now, but a run to the finals of the SEC tournament could get them right there. To do that they would need to beat Auburn, Tennessee and then likely the winner of Vandy/Miss St.

Should Not Get At-Large Bids:

Oregon/Washington- I am talking about these two teams together. I do not think either has done enough to get in, but if either makes a run to the finals of the Pac 12 tournament they will be in the discussion. As I said earlier, I don't believe any Pac 12 team has done enough or will have done enough to deserve an at large bid, but you never really know what the committee will do.

Oral Roberts/Iona- these are two teams that I don't think did quite enough, that have no way to play themselves in, because their conference tournaments are done. I think they end up on the outside looking in.

Obama's Failed Presidency

As I listened to the president who I voted for, who I will almost undoubtedly vote for again ask the questions tonight of where would we be if Lincoln had not built the intercontinental railroad despite the civil war? Or started the National Academy of Sciences? where would we be right now if the people who sat here before us decided not to build our highways and our bridges; our dams and our airports? What would this country be like if we had chosen not to spend money on public high schools, or research universities, or community colleges? How many jobs would it have cost us if past Congresses decided not to support the basic research that led to the Internet and the computer chip?

As I heard him say those things I could not help but think “where were these words 2 years ago when you had to sell the American public on what government could do?” Where were these words when you started from such a position of weakness by throwing a Republican party incentives even when the party had no desire to support you in anything you ever did no matter what? For years democrats have been afraid to try to sell the American public one what Government has done and the many ways it has been the vision of our leaders in the past that has helped contribute to the great country we have today.

Instead we sit in a country where people want to go backwards. Where the accomplishments and the progress we made for so many years are threatened with demise. It's an easy to sell to say that “you can spend your money better than the government.” Or that government is too big. It is particularly easy when government gets as nasty as it has in recent years. When the business becomes winning elections instead of taking care of the American people. People can fathom that.

It's a much harder sell to try to explain all that government has done in the past to make this country great.

FDR once said: Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country.

When the government invests in our future on a large scale its doing the type of investment that cannot be done by one or two people. The intercontinental railroad spurned industry in so many ways. It connected the country in ways it had not been before. Can you imagine a world without roads to drive on or highways to travel on? We certainly would not be living the life we are today. The government funded universities that have done some of our best research that have pioneered innovation like the internet. For years people have not been willing to make that case.

People do not think about all the ways these government investments, the foresight our past leaders had to push these programs...they do no realize how much they have pushed American on and enhanced our every day lives. They do not realize it because they cannot see a world without. Well the sad truth is we are pushing to a world without it and the politics of the last 20-30 years...the failure of government to act with foresight, to invest in infrastructure and the future of America has been leading us down the hole we are in right now.

We needed a bigger, badder stimulus two years ago. We needed to fix two decades of government stagnation. Of a world where Congress lived election to election afraid to do anything at all. Had the democrats lost the house, and senate and white house actually stepping up to the plate and doing what was right I would have been alright with that. But now we sit and the accomplishments of this Administration have been minor. Yes I loved the repeal of don't ask don't tell, and the health care bill was a step in the right direction, but we needed more...instead we got appeasement. We got an administration that seemingly wanted to include a Republican party that had no desire to really be included unless they got their way.

So here we sit now... Obama says words that I have been waiting forever for a president, or any democratic leader, to say and yet he says them at a time where his ability to do anything of significance is nonexistent. The Democrats have already lost the house in historic fashion, the senate margin is thin, and Obama's approvals are at all time lows. Right now the president is acting from a position of weakness. This type of speech should have defined his presidency. He should have put his reelection hopes on what government could do and used his huge house and senate majorities to do it.

Instead he refused to make the hard sell. He tried to be all things to all people. Now the recovery we have had (and yes there has been some, just not enough, particularly in jobs) has leveled off. We did not do enough and Obama's reelection hopes mainly stem on the ineptitude of the opposition... either way his ability to do something truly historic, to change the tide of history back to one of vision that so many leaders of the past have shown, from Lincoln, to Teddy Roosevelt to FDR, Truman and JFK...to the many great congress men and women who did so much... to bring back a government that invests in its people and moves us towards a brighter future. That opportunity is lost now. And to me that may be the defining characteristic of Obama's presidency.

Thoughts on Tournament Field

Grading The Selection Committee

Like many of those who try to pick the field I missed some teams this year. I had Alabama, VT, and Colorado in and the committee selected Georgia, UAB and VCU. I don't have a problem with any of the exclusions (though I am very surprised by Colorado who I think looked like a tournament team and had the wins of a tournament team), but I do think the UAB inclusion was a bad one. UAB was 1-4 against the RPI top 50 (the one win over VCU) and 9-8 against the RPI top 100 (that is a decent amount of top 100 wins as far as that goes). Clearly, the committee chose to value UAB winning the Conference USA title (conference USA was 8^th in the RPI this). To me UAB showed they could beat NIT caliber teams not NCAA caliber teams. I think there were better teams available.

The common trend among those who were excluded was bad non-conference strength of schedules. The committee has always emphasized the non-conference strength of schedule, but they really sent a message with it this year. Colorado, Bama and VT had non-conference strength of schedules of 331, 294, and 153. At the end of the day this is what got them left out. Alabama in fact had better wins than Georgia and beat Georgia twice, but because Georgia scheduled better they were a 10 seed while Bama was at home. Honestly I have no problem when the committee sends this message. They have been doing it for years. When you play a non-conference schedule that is as bad as these teams you better have an overwhelming overall resume or you will be left at home.

As far as overall seeding I did not have any big issues with any of the seeds. I thought Georgetown was too high, but they were rewarded for a great SOS and stellar RPI numbers, which is fine. I had Notre Dame as a 1 seed over Duke, but the Duke choice is fine (and in fact I think they are my favorite to win the whole thing). I had Uconn as the last two seed and SD State as the top 3, and it appears the committee went the other way around. Even the teams I was off on I am fine with the committee's placement. I had Missouri as a 9 seed, but the way they finished and their performance away from home this year an 11 is reasonable. I thought Penn State was too high as a 10 especially when you compare them to a team like Marquette, but the committee gets 1 seed line to play with so you never know if they had to move them or not. To me no teams that were excluded had an ironclad case to get in and only 1 team included had a poor case to get in (UAB).

Today is the start of my favorite 4 game stretch of the season. Here are the first round games I am most looking forward to.

Thursday 12pm on CBS, WVU v Clemson- I always look forward to watching Huggins teams play and this is a very dangerous 5/12 game. Clemson has a big disadvantage of having played in Dayton in the late game Tuesday and then having to fly to St Pete for the noon game Thursday, but Clemson is playing really good basketball and I think Brad Brownell is one hell of a coach. As much as Huggins has got out of this WVU team, they have to execute at a very high level to win games, because they just do not have individuals who can take over. I like WVU in this one but it could be close.

Thursday 1:30 pm on TBS, Louisville v Morehead State- Morehead State has one of the best players in the tournament in Kenneth Faried. I'm really excited to see him play against a team as good as Louisville and think he could give them trouble. I have Louisville going all the way to the elite eight, but I would not be shocked if Morehead State gave them all they could handle. Last year's OVC champion Murray State won a game in the tournament last season.

Thursday 7PM on CBS, BYU vs. Wofford- Wofford is an experienced team that played really well last year in the tournament. BYU has been great all year and has an absolutely stellar record against tournament teams, but they have been missing something since the Davies suspension. Of course I am stoked to watch Jimmer, but I think this game has the potential to be the biggest upset of the first round.

Thursday 7:15 on TruTv, Wisconsin vs. Belmont- I'm very excited to watch Belmont play. They are a deep squad that just destroyed the Atlantic Sun this year. Ken Pom's efficiency rankings really thought highly of this squad. When Wisconsin players their best they are a top 15 caliber team, but they can look very ugly at times. This is another game that has the potential to be an upset (and has been a very trendy upset pick).

Thursday 9:45 pm on TNT, Cincinnati v Missouri- Not much introduction needed here. Been waiting 6 years for this game.

Friday 12 pm on CBS, Texas v Oakland- Texas has at times looked like the best team in the country but really struggled down the stretch. If those struggles continue this Oakland team is capable of beating them.

Friday 7:15 pm on TruTv, Xavier v Marquette- I am very much interested in seeing how much in Xavier's “improvement” is actual improvement and how much is from playing in the Atlantic Ten. I think the 11^th place team in the Big East has to be thrilled with the draw they got and could very well beat Xavier in this game.

Friday 9:45 pm on TNT, Georgetown v VCU- Many did not like the VCU selection, but they are a very dangerous team and I think were worthy given their wins over the course of the year. Georgetown really struggled down the stretch. The big question here is does Chris Wright come back and how effective is he? With a healthy, effective Chris Wright Georgetown is a very dangerous 6 seed. Without him they could be one and done.

Potential First Round Upsets (11 seed or higher winning)

12 Clemson over 5 WVU

11 Marquette over 6 Xavier

13 Oakland over 4 Texas

14 Wofford over 3 BYU

11 Gonzaga over 6 St Johns

13 Belmont over 4 Wisconsin

12 Utah State over 5 Kansas State

11 VCU over 6 Georgetown

12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt

Potential Sweet 16 sleepers (7 seeds and below)

11 Marquette

7 Washington

9 Tennessee

13 Oakland

10 Michigan State

11 Gonzaga

13 Belmont

My Elite Eight

Pitt

Florida

Notre Dame

Louisville

Cincinnati

Duke

Syracuse

Kentucky

My Final Four

Kentucky

Duke

Notre Dame

Pitt

Championship

Duke over Pitt

Selection Sunday Final Bracket

I won't be able to do a bracket after the games are played today so there could be some changes but here is my final bracket.

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Florida, Uconn

Three Seeds- San Diego State, Texas, Louisville, Kentucky

Four Seeds- Syracuse, BYU, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- St Johns, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona

Six Seeds- Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, Washington, UCLA, UNLV

Eight Seeds- Georgetown, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Marquette

Nine Seeds- Michigan, Old Dominion, Missouri, Butler

Ten Seeds- Villanova, llinois, George Mason, Colorado

Eleven Seeds- Clemson, Michigan State, Richmond, Virginia Tech

Twelve Seeds- Florida State/Alabama, Memphis, Utah State, Penn State/USC

Thirteen Seeds- Princeton, Oakland, Belmont, Morehead State

Fourteen Seeds- Indiana State, Bucknell, Long Island U, Wofford

Fifteen Seeds- St Peters, Northern Colorado, Akron, UCSB

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Arkansas State/Hampton, UTSA/Ark Little Rock

Last 6 In

Richmond

Virginia Tech

Florida State

Penn State

USC

Alabama

First 6 Out

St Mary's

Georgia

Harvard

Boston College

UAB

VCU

Here is my selection Sunday bracket projection. The last team I have in the field is Alabama. This bracket will work if Richmond wins the A10 and Ohio State wins the Big Ten. If Dayton wins today I think they would go in as a 13 seed and would knock Alabama out of the tournament. If Penn State wins they will move up to probably a 10 or 11 seed. Automatic bids also do not play in the play in game. If that were the case then Virginia Tech would be in the play in game. If both Penn State and Dayton win those I have in the play in games would be Richmond, Virginia tech, Florida State and USC.

I think the team I am leaving out that is most likely to get chosen by the committee is St Mary's. To me their body of work was not enough. They hang much of their resume on a win over St Johns which occurred in November and one win over Gonzaga. To me the two teams they are competing with (Alabama and USC) have a much better collection of wins. USC is 5-5 against the RPI top 50 and has wins over UCLA, Arizona, Washington, and Texas. That is strong. Alabama ran away with the SEC west and has wins over Kentucky, bubble team Georgia twice (which I why they have to be above Georgia in the pecking order), and Tennessee. I really believe those 3 teams are competing for the last two spots. I went with USC and Alabama, but I would not be surprised in the committee went with St Mary's. And if Dayton wins the A10 I think those teams are competing for the last spot.

Two 1 seeds are set in stone (Ohio State and Kansas). I believe there are 3 legit contenders for the remaining 2 one seeds. To me Pitt and Notre Dame have the clear advantage over Duke in overall resume. A win today by Duke would tighten the gap, but I think the committee will settle on their 1 seeds before tip off of that game. In the end I think the one seeds will be Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, and Pitt.

I have the Bearcats as a 6 seed which I have had them at all week. I think their resume compares favorably to the 5 seeds, however, and would not be surprised if they ended up there. I would be surprised if UC was any lower than a 7 seed.

And now the futile effort of projecting matchups and pods.

East

From Cleveland Ohio:

1. Ohio State
16. UTSA/Ark Little Rock

8. Georgetown
9. Old Dominion

From Denver Colorado:

4. BYU
13. Princeton

5. West Virginia
12. Memphis

From Washington DC:

6. Texas A&M
11. Michigan State

3. Kentucky
14. Bucknell

From Washington DC:

7. Temple
10. George Mason

2. UConn
15. St Peters

Southwest

From Tulsa Oklahoma:

1. Kansas
16. Arkansas State/Hampton

8. Marquette
9. Michigan

From Tuscon Arizona:

4. Wisconsin
13. Oakland

5. St Johns
12. Penn State/Alabama

From Tuscon Arizona:

6. Xavier
11. Clemson

3. San Diego State
14. Wofford

From Tampa Florida:

7. Washington
10. Colorado

2. Florida
15. Northern Colorado

Southeast

From Chicago Illinois:

1. Notre Dame
16. UNC Ashville

8. Tennessee
9. Missouri

From Denver Colorado:

4. Purdue
13. Belmont

5. Vanderbilt
12. Florida State/USC

From Chicago Illinois:

6. Kansas State
11. Virginia tech

3. Louisville
14. Indiana State

From Charlotte North Carolina:

7. UNLV
10. Villanova

2. UNC
15. Akron

West

From Cleveland Ohio:

1. Pitt
16. Boston U

8. Gonzaga
9. Butler

From Tampa Florida:

4. Syracuse
13. Morehead State

5. Arizona
12. Utah State

From Tulsa Oklahoma:

6. Cincinnati
11. Richmond

3. Texas
14. Long Island U

From Charlotte North Carolina:

7. UCLA
10. Illinois

2. Duke
15. UCSB

My Projected Tournament Field = March 12 12:17AM

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Texas, BYU

Three Seeds- Florida, Louisville, Kentucky, Syracuse

Four Seeds- San Diego State, UCONN, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- St Johns, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Arizona

Six Seeds- Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, UCLA, UNLV, Georgetown

Eight Seeds- Tennessee, Gonzaga, Marquette, Michigan

Nine Seeds- Old Dominion, Missouri, Washington, Butler

Ten Seeds- Villanova, llinois,, George Mason, Colorado

Eleven Seeds- Clemson, Michigan State, Virginia Tech , Florida State

Twelve Seeds- USC/St Marys, Utah State, Richmond/Alabama, Memphis

Thirteen Seeds- Harvard, Oakland, Belmont, Morehead State

Fourteen Seeds- Indiana State, Kent State, Bucknell, Long Island U

Fifteen Seeds- Long Beach State, Wofford, St Peters, Northern Colorado

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Texas Southern/ Bethune Cookman, Mcneese State/Ark Little Rock

Last 4 In

USC

Richmond

Alabama

St Mary's

First 6 Out

Penn State

Georgia

Harvard

Boston College

UAB

Memphis

First Attempt at Projected Tournament Field

Here is my first draft at the NCAA field. I am not going to do matchups until my final draft is released on Selection Sunday. My seeds are left to right in order of how I have them ranked right now as well. (Automatic Bids in bold, predicted Automatic qualifiers in italics)

One Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

Two Seeds- North Carolina, Duke, Texas, BYU

Three Seeds- Florida, Syracuse, Louisville, Kentucky

Four Seeds- San Diego State, West Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin

Five Seeds- Kansas State, St Johns, UCONN, Vanderbilt

Six Seeds- Cincinnati, UCLA, Arizona, Xavier

Seven Seeds- Temple, Georgetown, UNLV, Texas A&M

Eight Seeds- Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Gonzaga

Nine Seeds- Marquette, Old Dominion, Michigan, Washington

Ten Seeds- Villanova, Butler, Florida State, George Mason

Eleven Seeds- USC, Boston College, Colorado, Virginia Tech

Twelve Seeds- Richmond, Clemson/Michigan State, Utah State, Georgia/St Mary's

Thirteen Seeds- UAB, Harvard, Oakland, Belmont

Fourteen Seeds- Morehead State, Indiana State, Kent State, Bucknell

Fifteen Seeds- Long Island U, Wofford, St Peters, Northern Colorado

Sixteen Seeds- Boston U, UNC Ashville, Texas Southern/Arkansas Little Rock, Mcneese State/Bethune Cookman

Ohio State and Kansas both make good cases for the overall number one seed. I think at this point it is Ohio State's to lose. I think if Pitt were to win the Big East tournament and neither OSU or Kansas won their tournaments Pitt could still get the overall number 1. To me those are the only three contenders for that spot.

I have Duke slightly ahead of North Carolina, but because I had them 5 and 6 overall and North Carolina won the ACC outright I went ahead and made North Carolina the highest 2 seed. BYU could fall a couple seed lines if their play seems to really have diminished in the Mountain West tournament. As of right now their resume is too impressive to do that. BYU is 9-1 against the RPI top 50, and 5-0 against the RPI top 25. I still think if they look really impressive in the Mountain West tournament they have an outside shot at a number 1 seed.

Kentucky is the first team whom I seeded higher than I initially expected to. They struggled in true road games inside the conference, but their overall profile is really good. They are 12 in the RPI and have non-conference wins over Washington, Louisville (projected 3 seed by me) and Notre Dame (projected 1 seed by me). They were also in the very difficult SEC East and racked up some good wins there.

I have Purdue and Wisconsin both as 4 seeds, whomever makes the finals of the Big 10 (if either do) will have a good shot at a 3 and an outside shot at a two. Purdue for example has a nice split with Wisconsin and Ohio State, but outside of that their wins just do not hold up with the teams I have above them (including a WVU team that they lost to). Wisconsin essentially has the same resume though they are a few spots lower in the RPI and have 1 more loss.

On to the Bearcats. I have them as the to 6 seed at the moment. A loss to South Florida tonight could put them in the 7/8 range given how little respect they seem to have been given at times nationally. Short of that I think a 6 seed is very safe and they could very easily play their way up. Their overall resume compares very well to all of the 4 and 5 seeds (I debated putting them above Vanderbilt for the last 5 seed). If they were to make a run to the finals their resume would compare very well to all the 2 and 3 seeds. The Big East tournament will be a great opportunity for the Cats and really the only risk would be dropping a seed line with a loss to South Florida (and I really do not expect a team playing this well to do that).

I have UCONN above the Bearcats despite finishing behind them in the Big East on the strength of their great non-conference profile and their win in Cincinnati. UCONN's overall body of work is really quite impressive even if I do not necessarily think they are as good of a team as some of the squads they are seeded with.

I will definitely have an updated bracket with full projections (even the futile attempt to predict match-ups and regions) at the very least on the morning of Selection Sunday. And as conference tournaments move along I may have some other thoughts to add.