Saturday, September 6, 2014

Football Stadium Rankings

(Of the Ones I have Visited)


I thought I would get to 30 stadiums last year, but the Bowl trip didn't pan out so I am stuck at 29.  I thought I’d rank the stadiums based on the experience watching a game or games at them.  Amenities are factored in, but atmosphere really wins above all else.  I’ll probable mention the tailgate situation at any stadium still being used, but the tailgating situation was not a major factor in the stadium experience rankings.  

The Outright Dumps

29.  The Rubber Bowl-  Lucky for Akron football fans they no longer have to play in this place.  I hear their new stadium is nice.  Good for them.  This place was definitely the worst facility I’ve ever watched a college or professional football game in.  Nothing really good to say about it.  I went in late September 2008.  It was about as ugly a game as it was a stadium.  The Bearcats snuck out a win with some late game help from then 3rd string QB Zach Collaros and would wind up in the Orange Bowl.  We got the hell out of Akron as soon as the game was over. 

  • Tailgating:  Found a good field to tailgate in, but stadium is no longer in use.

28.  Legion Field (Birmingham, Alabama)- The stadium looks like it’s in the middle of a warzone.  Houses with windows busted out are all around it.  The stadium is old, no amenities and really doesn’t have much going for it.  I’ll say this much though.  It was a great trip.  Fun finish to Brian Kelly’s first year at UC and I thought Birmingham, Alabama was actually a lot of fun as a city.  It probably helped that we took a party bus down from Cincinnati, started drinking when the bus pulled out at 9 and then stayed out until about 4 am that evening.  Game was at noon the next day, bus left for it at about 9… we managed and got introduced to something called the Boone’s Farm Rally for the first time.  Great trip, lousy stadium.

  •   Tailgating:  Big lot right around the stadium offers fine tailgating option.

27.  Riverfront Stadium- Forgot this the first time around.  Not really a dump, but nothing good either.  I have it at 27 and that's all I have to say.

No Complaints, but pretty Meh.

26.  John C. Edwards Stadium (Marshall University)- Not much to say about this group of stadiums.  I enjoyed my experience at Marshall.  Watching a football game was fun and the atmosphere was solid.  No real complaints about the stadium, but nothing really special either. 

  • Tailgating:  Lots of big lots near the stadium.  Fairly solid tailgating going on. 

25.  Carrier Dome (Syracuse University)- Pretty much the definition of serviceable, fine place to watch a football game.  I would say it is a bonus if your stadium is not going to be great and you are a cold weather city, to have the stadium be a dome, because the tailgate was pretty chilly and the wind was noticeable.  I enjoyed my trip to the Carrier Dome.  I’d go back, but nothing glowing to say. 

  • Tailgating- We found a lot pretty close to the stadium.  It was a decent walk and it was hilly, but nothing terrible.  Pretty standard tailgates. 

24.  Yager Stadium (Miami University)- Stadium is fine for what it is.  Most of the times I have been there the Miami students are gone by halftime and the atmosphere is not great.  One big exception, was the trip I made when Roethlisberger was QB.  The place was pretty alive that day.  Pretty fun game, disaster ending for UC.  Miami was dominating most the day, yet some crazy plays put UC within a touchdown of the win in the 4th quarter and UC was going to get the ball late.  Sadly, the punt returner muffed the punt and Miami recovered.  They took a few knees and that was that.  Luckily, haven’t been too many losses like that lately. 

  •      Tailgating:  This is a huge plus for Yager Stadium.  There is a ton of tailgating right by the stadium.  There is a big open lot by Millet and a big field on the other side of Yager.  The trip to Miami is consistently a great trip for me as a Bearcat fan, because of the sheer number of UC fans you get tailgating in the lot.  Tailgating for UC home games is more fragmented because of the parking situation around Nippert, but for this game 5000 plus Bearcat fans can make the trip and party in the same general area before the game.  Bonus points, because you can go back out to the car at halftime and enjoy a beer before the second half.  Stadium and atmosphere are fine, not great, but Miami is well worth the trip for a football game because of the Tailgating.

The NFL Stadiums

23.  RCA Dome (Indianapolis)- It will become very clear that I have a bias towards college stadiums and it 100% comes down to atmosphere.  College Stadiums just feel different to me.  The experience is just better.  Amenities wise I am sure many to all of these NFL stadiums outperform the college stadiums I have ranked ahead of them.  Now, the RCA Dome was pretty Meh, but I went there for a Monday night football game the Bengals played there in 2006.  It was pretty fun, despite the Bengals losing and the crowd was great.  The stadium has now made way for Lucas Oil Stadium, which I am sure is even better.

22.  Pontiac Silver Dome (Detroit)-  Another extinct stadium.  I went to a couple UC Bowl games and a late season Lions game there.  I was really impressed with the stadium generally.  I had never watched a game in the dome so it was different.  We didn’t tailgate so I have no thought on that. 

21.  Fed Ex Field (Washington Redskins)- It’s a pretty huge NFL stadium, though I wasn’t there for an NFL game so I am sure I didn’t get the full experience.  Stadium just seemed like it tried to get too many people in there.  Lots of obstructed view seats, which luckily we didn’t have to deal with.  That said, it was a fun place to watch a football game and I’ll never forget the awesome ending (video below).


  • Tailgating- There’s plenty of it as like most NFL stadiums they did a good job building lots of lots around them. 

20.  The Orange Bowl-  Also where the Dolphins play and I attended for the actual Orange Bowl on January 1, 2009.  Nice stadium, nice amenities, nothing spectacular. 

  • Tailgating-  Great setup all around the stadium and particular fun because everything was set up for the Bowl Game on that day.  Plus can’t beat 75 and sunny in January.  







19.  Cleveland Browns Stadium-  The next three are all AFC North Stadiums and really all very similar stadiums.  Cleveland gets penalized for having the biggest asshole fan base of any place I have visited.  Had a beer dumped on me walking to the tailgate and people constantly acting like jerks.  Most of my trips as a visiting fan have been great and most the time the opposing fans are a large reason why.  I’ve been treated amazingly well traveling, but Cleveland (and another stadium in Ohio are notable exceptions to that general rule). 

  • Tailgating- plenty, just be with a group to avoid the wrath of unreasonable angry Cleveland Browns fans in QB jerseys of about 20 different QBs from the last decade. 
18.  Paul Brown Stadium-  I love going to games at Paul Brown.  This is one of the two stadiums I have been to for both College and Professional football.  There have been incredible atmospheres for both. 

17.  Heinz Field (Pittsburgh)-  I may be a little biased towards Heinz field, which is not much different from PBS or Cleveland Brown Stadium, but having attended two of the most memorable games ever there, I am rewarding it with top spot of the AFC North Stadiums (having never been to Baltimore).  Those two games, first was 2005 when the Bengals played the Steelers, essentially for a division title.  Palmer and the Bengals offense were great all game long.  Just when the Steelers looked back in it, Tab Perry returned a kickoff to the 1 yard line, dragging Steelers players like 30 yards along the way.  Such an awesome game and credit to the Steelers fans, most weren’t total jerks when we left.  It should be noted that was also a game we made the decision to attend about 4 in the morning and drove from Cincinnati immediately.  Great decision in Hindsight.



The other is still the best game I’ve ever attended in any sport:  UC vs. Pitt, 2009 for the Big East Title.  I remember everyone panicking when UC went down 21 and me repeatedly telling people that we were going to find a way to win this game.  Then when Mardy took the kickoff back for a TD before the half I started yelling it to people.  The last quarter of that game was unforgettable.  Big play after big play.  Missed PAT by UC, then a 2 point conversion on the next drive to make up for it.  Botched PAT by Pitt setting up UC’s game winning drive, which ended with this:



Solid College Stadiums

16.  The Liberty Bowl (Memphis)- It’s old and little dumpy, but it’s still a college stadium and a fun place to watch a game.  The atmosphere for the Liberty Bowl was great, maybe it would be lower if I were just there for a Memphis game.  Probably the toughest call for me on where to put it, but I really enjoyed my trip and liked the stadium so right in the middle is where it sits. 

  • Tailgating- Plenty right around the stadium and bonus points for being a city with great barbeque.  


15.  The Glass Bowl (Toledo)-  I was really impressed with this place.  Great little stadium in the heart of Toledo’s Campus.  Reminded me a little bit of Nippert.  Crowd was solid throughout and there were decent tailgating options. 


NFL Stadiums with Character

14.  Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)- I was in Tampa for a college game in 2009.  Made the drive overnight to attend a Thursday night game between UC and USF (both were ranked).  The environment was really good that night.  Raymond James Stadium reminds me of the AFC North stadiums I visited, but just seems to have a little more character (or maybe that’s just the Pirate Ship).  Like all NFL stadiums I have visited, finding tailgating spots near the stadium is not an issue.  Hell parking was pretty easy as well.  Plus the added bonus is I got to see a great football game, where sadly Tony Pike got hurt, but Zach Collaros did this:


Yeah 2009 was pretty epic. 

13.  Superdome (New Orleans)-  I just have great things to say about this place.  It’s a pretty standard Dome but there is just an electric feel to the place.  It gets loud and it benefits from being in the heart of New Orleans.  Maybe I’m biased because I was there for a Sugar Bowl which is an event in itself, but I loved this place despite the terrible result of the game. 



If You Get a Chance you Should Definitely Go

12.  Papa John Stadium (Louisville)- I’ve now seen the Bearcats play there 4 times, all four were great games and the atmosphere at all four was really good.  In the last 3 UC brought great crowds which just added to the environment.  Hell, I feel like it was pouring down rain at the last 3 and I still had a great time.  My biggest complaint about Papa John Stadium is the upper deck seating sucks.  For a stadium that does not seat a ton of people, the upper deck seats seem really far away.  Luckily, I was only in the upper deck once.  Best trip to Papa John Stadium was 2008 when the Bearcats were trying to win their first Big East Title.  They had just come off a huge win at WVU and it was pouring rain most the game.  This did not stop UC fans from traveling in force, or partying in the concourses for about 30 minutes after the game ended.  Pretty amazing memory yelling the “down the drive” cheer over and over against after the game as Bearcat fans danced and cheered in the concourse.  






  • Tailgating- Really good tailgating setup around Papa John Stadium.  We usually go to a grass lot caddy corner to the stadium.  
 

11.  High Point Solutions Stadium (Rutgers)-  I’ve talked about the 2009 Bearcat season a number of times in these stadium rankings, but it cannot be stressed enough… 2009 was amazing.  As a Bearcat fan who has been going to games for 25 years, 2009 was like a dream.  All season I thought about the amount of mediocre to bad UC teams I watched over the years, in front of half full crowds that were sparsely filled by games end and I couldn’t help but smile at how far the program had come.  I went to 12 of UC’s 13 games in 2009 (not making the trip out to Corvallis, Oregon).  UC started the season at High Point Solutions Stadium the Sunday of Labor Day weekend and started it off with an absolute bang.  (I linked the highlight video below).  Maybe it helped that this was a Rutgers team picked to win the league by many and they were opening a newly expanded stadium, but I thought the environment there was great (you know until UC was up by 20+).  I really liked the layout of the stadium.  It was a cool place to watch a game, and just had that great college football feel.  



  • Tailgating- Great options, right by the stadium.  We found some Bearcat fans and set up shot across the street from the stadium. 


10.  Notre Dame Stadium-  Probably lower than people think it should be.  I really enjoyed my trip to South Bend, the stadium was full of character and history.  I took a picture of the narrow wooden bench seat we had to sit on, but to me that little character just added to the feel and is not a complaint area at all.  To me, Notre Dame Stadium loses points for just the feel during the game.  I was there for Notre Dame vs. USC.  The Trojans are their biggest rivals and this was a really good game, yet I would classify the crowd as restrained to quiet for most of the evening.  Having been to several stadiums from bigger programs this shocked me.  Cool stadium, lots of character, worth seeing, but to me lacking a little bit of in game experience because of the crowd. 




9.  Memorial Stadium (Illinois)-  Pretty awful game for UC fans, but I thought a really cool stadium.  Didn’t seem like there were bad seats and the fans were very much into the game.  Additionally, it was a pleasant fan base to be around, bother prior to, during and after the game.  Sometimes it’s the slightly smaller major program stadiums that are a little underrated.  Memorial Stadium is a great example.

  • Tailgating- Everything is rural to the South Side of the stadium and there are a ton of tailgating lots.  We found a big grass lot loaded with Bearcat fans and had a great time.  Probably the biggest tailgating plots I’ve been able to use at a game.  The way they line up the cars they give you a ton of room to set up your tailgate.  Absolutely loved it. 

The Elite NFL Stadium

8.  Soldier Field (Chicago)-  First, it was a maze to find my seat, but other than that the Stadium was really awesome.  It’s the highest ranked NFL stadium on my list and just stood out when compared to the others.  I went for the Bengals v. Bears game last season to start the year.  I had 200 level 50 yard line tickets which were given to me by a random Bengals fan at a sports bar prior to the game.  Person came up to be about noon and asked if I wanted his tickets.  Once I established that he was not trying to sell them, I took them at hopped on the el train heading to Soldier Field.  The Bears fans around us were great, the stadium had a ton of character and the fans were into the game.  Big cheer for Soldier Field.  



Great College Football Stadiums

7.  Carter-Finley Stadium (NC State)-  Another game that went very poorly for UC, in a season that was just brutal for UC (really the only one since BK took over), but I really liked Carter-Finley.  I thought the fans were solid, though I may be remember the red sun dresses too fondly to be completely objective.  Had a few fans that were jerks walking to the game, but once we got there everyone was great.  Highly recommend checking this place out.

  • Tailgating- Plenty of spots and then there are the red sun dresses.  Red Sun Dresses!

6.  Ohio Stadium (Ohio State)-  It has everything except a fan base that treats opposing fans with respect.  I debated where to put Ohio Stadium for a long time.  Having to sit next to assholes or be harassed by fans is a big negative.  Having traveled extensively for games, I have been amazed at not just how pleasant opposing fans are at times, but in how they sometimes go out of their way to treat you well and make sure you enjoy your time there.  This really makes the jerk fan bases stand out.  That said, Ohio Stadium is a really cool place, it is certainly one of the loudest stadiums I have been to and for as many seats are there are I still don’t feel like my far away seats were that bad.  Lots of good, one really bad aspect, on balance it still has to rank fairly high because the intensity of watching a game there is very high.  

5.  Lane Stadium (Virginia Tech)- Really enjoyed my trip to Lane Stadium and that even takes into account that I was sitting in the middle of the student section wearing my UC gear.  The Enter Sandman entrance is truly electric.  I went in 2006, UC had a lead for a while and it was close in the 4th quarter before a couple plays went against the Cats.  Tough game, in a year which UC played 5 top 10 teams (beating one and playing well for a young team in the others all of which were on the road).  I thought this year was a huge building year towards getting UC to a level where they could win conference championships.  The fans at Lane were into the game and we were treated well. 

4.  Milan Puskar Stadium (West Virginia) – I’m betting this is a controversial choice and it is undoubtedly colored by my own experience in Morgantown.  First of all I really liked the stadium.  I thought it was a good size, the fans felt right on top of the field and the crowd was into the game from the get go.  West Virginia was in the middle of a top notch run in the Big East and UC was trying to go to their place and beat them.  UC led from the opening kickoff before blowing a 13 point lead in the last 4 minutes and the game ending up in overtime.  This set up a pretty amazing finish and Jim Kelly’s Jr.’s awesome radio call.  (at the end of the highlight film below)  The crowd was great throughout and we were treated really well by the WVU fans (more on that below).







  • Tailgating- WVU has a reputation for being one of those asshole fanbases and maybe they are.  Maybe my take on WVU’s stadium and the atmosphere watching a game there would be different if I had been treated badly.  Instead the fans treated me amazingly well.  We set up to tailgate in a reasonably small lot about a half mile from the stadium.  As soon as we set up a group of WVU fans called us over and told us to set up shop with them.  So we tailgated with a big group of WVU fans all the way up to near kickoff.  After the game we went to a bar and as soon as we walked in a group of WVU fans called us over.  They poured us beers which they would continue to top off from their pitchers the entire night.  This was despite UC winning what had to be a heartbreaking game for WVU fans.  My opinion is probably colored by how great we were treated, but lessen to all fan bases, be classy towards your visiting guests. 


The Elite College Football Stadiums

3.  Neyland Stadium (Tennessee)-  It was loud, it was large, but the seats were still good.  The Tennessee fans treated us really well and the tailgating was a great time.  When it comes to big historic stadiums, Neyland really was everything advertised.  And additionally, girls in Sundresses. 

  • Tailgating-  They do it right down in Knoxville. 

2.   Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Oklahoma)-  I do not know if any College Football venue will ever top our trip to Norman, Oklahoma.  The stadium was great, lots of character, good views.  Boomer Sooner coming onto the field was thrilling and completely unique.  The fans were into the game, incredibly knowledgeable and most of all the best hosts imaginable.  The night before the game we repeatedly were invited to tailgates and had Oklahoma fans come up to us to talk UC football.  Walking to the tailgate people invited us to stop by.  We sat mainly with UC fans, but opposing fans at the game were wonderful.  Hell, even after the game, walking back we ended up being invited by more OU fans to have some post game drinks and food at their tailgate.  I cannot imagine a more pleasant fan base that knows football as well as the Sooners fans did.  I’ve never had a stadium experience like it.  Everything about going to a Sooners game in Norman was spectacular.  Cudos to those guys, they are the best.





  • Tailgating- I mentioned it before, but pleasant fans who will go out of their way to make sure you have a good time.  Plenty of lots and really cool tailgate vehicles.  We hung out at a tailgate with an RV with 4 tvs, with beer they brought in from Texas (beware grocery stores in Oklahoma sell you 3.2 beer).  My favorite tailgate vehicles were the school buses where the roof on the back half was chopped off and the back half was essentially a deck.  Really excellent setups.  If you get a chance go to Oklahoma for a football game. 





1.   Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati)- This is my rankings and I am the very definition of biased.  That said, I can guarantee none of the stadiums I attended were louder than a night game at Nippert Stadium.  I love Nippert and cannot wait for it to re-open.  There are no bad seats.  You are right on top of the action and the place is electric for big games.  I’ve seen so many games over the years, but it would have been impossible for me to put Nippert this high until UC football took off under Brian Kelly.  Since those days the place has more often than not been packed and the crowds have been loud and into the game.  At its best I would put the experience of watching a game at Nippert with any school in the country and because it’s my rankings I get to.  



  • Tailgating-  There are way better tailgating stadiums with better overall gameday experiences.  Once tailgating is factored into the equation, Nippert undoubtedly falls down the list.  That said, I love tailgating at Nippert.  There are plenty of smaller lots where you can set up shop.  We’ve been behind Martinos on Vine since 2009 and have combined tailgates with almost everyone around us as a result.  This would probably be harder to do in some of those big lots at other stadiums.  Additionally, UC has a great setup at the Grid for those who want to tailgate next the stadium.  You can make your gameday tailgate experience pretty great and the urban tailgate environment of Nippert is very different from other schools I have visited.  It’s uniquely Cincy and that’s alright by me.  


Thursday, September 4, 2014

Breaking Bad Season 1 and Early Season 2



I’m late to the Breaking Bad party.  Before season 5 began I tried to get caught up.  I watched the first 2 seasons, but in reality, with law school, I just was not able to catch up in time.  Had I been truly enthralled by the show at that point, I probably would have continued and made time, but though I liked many parts of the show it for me was not must watch television. 

However, many people and critics whose judgment I trust swear by this show, so I am committed to finishing the series.  Over the last week and a half I watched the entire first season (only 7 episodes) and the first 6 episodes of the season 2.  My thoughts of the show remain largely the same.  There are a number of things I like and a couple things that have prevented me from truly embracing the show the way many have.  I thought I would explain my thoughts on Breaking Bad so far, starting with the good. 

The way the show builds tension into almost every seen is both brilliant and rare.  Simple things like Walter receiving phone calls, sorting his money or seeing car lights outside his house are used in a way to make every scene feel like something bad not only can happen but imminently will happen.  There are several scenes that stand out for the way they build tension, like Walt’s pantsless driving of the RV with the sirens going in the Pilot, Jesse’s first meeting with Tuco, Walt’s first meeting with Tuco, and every scene in the Junkyard.  The way tension gets built just from little things, conversations, or just taking the time to show every detail reminds me of Tarantino films, particularly this one.  



However, my favorite use of tension and my favorite scenes in the series to date involve Tuco’s Uncle Tio.  It starts with him seeing Walt dump the poison in Tuco’s burrito, but culminates in the great scene where Tuco questions Uncle Tio about Walt and Jesse.  It’s a tremendous build of them trying to come up with excuses, trying to dismiss the Uncle and yet the Uncle being focused on exposing them to Tuco in the only way he can.  It’s a great scene it what I consider the best episode of the show to that point.  Uncle Tio also appears in the next episode where the police question him regarding Jesse and Tio refuses to expose Jesse, because he won’t cooperate with the DEA.  (Here’s that scene)



Additionally, I have really like the work Breaking Bad has done with Jesse.  He’s a great character and they’ve played his desperation perfectly as he lost everything when his parents cut him off and all of his money had been previously taken by Tuco and then confiscated by the police.  I really appreciated the earlier use of the episode where Jesse temporarily moves back in with his family.  You see the conflict in his parents and their wanting to help Jesse but not allow Jesse to destroy himself.  You can see Jesse wanting his parents to be there for him and wanting to feel like a part of the family.  You even see Jesse taking the blame for his brother’s joint and getting kicked out.  You cannot blame Jesse’s family for cutting him off when they find the meth lab in his basement and yet it crushes Jesse and leaves him at his most desperate.  I think his arc has been really smart, well done and it’s easy to empathize with Jesse.

This brings me to my biggest issue with Breaking Bad.  I’m supposed to relate to Walt, I’m supposed to care about Walt and be sad for Walt and yet at no point has Walt came across as anything but a selfish asshole.   A ton of time in this show is spent on the slow deterioration of Walt’s relationship with his family and the conflict that has resulted from Walt’s decisions to go criminal and yet I don’t feel bad for Walt, because Walt to me was never presented as a good person.  The stage 3 Cancer seemed like a plot device to make people feel for Walt, but I never saw Walt treating people well, being honest with people or saying anything that I could reasonably believe was true.  Simply put, there has been no reason shown for me to invest in Walt, other than Cranston’s great performance.

This is not to say that characters have to be good people.  They certainly do not.  You can build a show around flawed or even bad people.  The problem with Breaking Bad is that Walt’s actions have never made him seem to be a good person and the show is built around trying to make me care about his life falling apart.  If Walt were just an asshole we were meant to hate from day one and we did not spend so much time trying to make his family matter, his actions would be easier to take.  If Walt were flawed, but given some redeeming qualities I might care for him more.  When you structure a show substantially around his life unraveling I should have a reason to care about him. 

Early in the series Walt hides his cancer from his family.  He continually lies about where he is, what he is doing and tries to make his family feel bad for even asking him about it.  The show operates on the theory that Walt is “breaking bad” to help his family and allow them to live without him.  However, if Walt truly cared about his family and not merely himself I cannot imagine him turning down the aid of anyone.  The cost to him was his pride.  The cost of cooking meth is potentially much more harmful to his family and this is no secret to him.  It forces him to continually lie to his family and to make their lives much harder.  Walt’s decision to cook meth comes off to me as nothing but pure selfishness and I just do not buy his commitment to his family, because his actions go contrary.

It’s not just his family that Walt treats horribly throughout the show.  From the very beginning Walt treats Jesse as a means to an end.  He has very little regard for Jesse’s life.  He yells at Jesse, but worse he consistently says deplorable things to Jesse and puts Jesse in danger.  But it’s not just Jesse the most recent episode I watched had a great example of Walt at his worst.   Walt had lied to his family about his former partner paying for his treatment and Gretchen (his former partner’s wife) found out about it when Skylar thanked her.  Gretchen didn’t tell Skylar and Walt met with Gretchen about the situation and in the meeting he was typically condescending.  He made the conversation about everything but his mistakes and said terrible things to her.  And none of this came out of left field, none of this was simply stuff that seemed to be occurring because Walt had started cooking meth; nothing in the show has made me believe Walt is anything but a bad guy and that makes it hard to invest in the drama with Walt and his family.

So the verdict so far.  Breaking Bad is a slow burn.  It’s a show that does tension amazingly well, but spends a lot of time on relationships it has not given me a reason to really care about.  The entry of a citizen into the drug game has been interesting television and the character of Jesse has been handled at a top notch level.  I’m excited to keep watching and see where the series goes.  I hope it lives up to the lofty expectations everyone has given me, but as of right now my issues with Walt make me somewhat skeptical.  Still I hear the best is yet to come. 

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Bracket

(Conference Champions in BOLD)

1 Seeds: Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 Seeds: Miami (Fl), Duke, New Mexico, Ohio State
3 Seeds: Florida, Georgetown, Michigan State, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Syracuse, Michigan
5 Seeds: Arizona, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, NC State
6 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, North Carolina, UNLV
7 Seeds: VCU, Butler, Colorado State, Creighton
8 Seeds: UCLA, Memphis, Oregon, Illinois
9 Seeds: SD State, Minnesota, Villanova, Colorado
10 Seeds: Boise State, Iowa State, Missouri, Cincinnati
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Temple, Wichita State, Ole Miss
12 Seeds: St Marys / Tennessee, Belmont, La Salle / California, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Valpo, Akron, Davidson, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Montana, Harvard, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast
15 Seeds: Iona, Northwestern State, Albany, Pacific
16 Seeds: WKU, Southern, LIU / Liberty, James Madison / NC A&T

Last Four In:
St Marys
California
La Salle
Tennessee

Others in Consideration:
Middle Tennessee State
Kentucky
Virginia
Maryland
Umass
Southern Miss
Iowa
Bama

A few final notes.  Louisville is the number 1 overall seed.  I debated Florida v. Ohio State for the final 2 seed and ultimately went with Ohio State.  They have better wins and better losses.  It really was that simple.  Regardless of what happens in the Big 10 Championship that will be the same.  I swapped UC and Oklahoma as the more I look at UC's resume the more I think it is ever so slightly better.  That makes UC the last 10 seed and Oklahoma the top 11.  I decided to value Tennessee's wins and put them in, but would not be surprised if MTSU ultimately got the last mid.   I'd be fine if they gave the last bid to Virginia or Iowa, but I cannot fathom that given their non-conference SOS and some of UVA's awful losses.  I'd also be fine if UMass got the last bid.  

Lastly, I have done my attempt at bracketing based on region and where the first and second round matchups will be.  The city between the two games designates the 4 team pods for each region.  I'm not positive, but I believe the East will match the Midwest and the South will match the West in the National Semis.  

East - DC

1. Indiana
16. LIU / Liberty
                             Dayton Pod
8. Memphis
9. Villanova

4. Syracuse
13. Akron
                           San Jose Pod
5. Oklahoma State
12. California / La Salle

2. Duke
15. Albany
                                 Philly Pod
7. Colorado State
10. Cincinnati

3. Michigan State
14. Harvard
                            Auburn Hills Pod
6. Notre Dame
11. Wichita State

West- LA

1. Gonzaga
16. Southern
                        Salt Lake City Pod
8. UCLA
9. Colorado

4. Kansas State
13. South Dakota State
                           Kansas City Pod
5. NC State
12. St Marys / Tennessee

2. Miami (fl)
15. Pacific
                                Lexington Pod
7. Creighton
10. Boise State

3. Wisconsin
14. Montana
                               Auburn Hills Pod
6. Pittsburgh
11. Ole Miss


Midwest – Indy

1. Louisville
16. James Madison / NC A&T
                                      Dayton Pod
8. Illinois
9. San Diego State

4. Michigan
13. Valpo
                                   San Jose Pod
5. Arizona
12. Bucknell

2. Ohio State
15. Iona
                                  Lexington Pod
7. VCU
10. Missouri

3. Florida
14. Florida Gulf Coast
                                      Austin Pod
6. North Carolina
11. Oklahoma

South – Dallas

1. Kansas
16. WKU
                                Kansas City Pod
8. Oregon
9. Minnesota

4. Marquette
13. Davidson
                               Salt Lake City Pod
5. St. Louis
12. Belmont

2. New Mexico
15. Northwestern State
                                             Austin Pod
7. Butler
10. Iowa State

3. Georgetown
14. New Mexico State
                                                Philly Pod
6. UNLV
11. Temple

Current Projected Field



1 Seeds: Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga, Kansas
2 Seeds: Miami (Fl), Duke, New Mexico, Florida
3 Seeds: Ohio State, Georgetown, Michigan State, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Syracuse, Michigan
5 Seeds: Arizona, Oklahoma State, St. Louis, NC State
6 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, North Carolina, UNLV
7 Seeds: VCU, Butler, Colorado State, Creighton
8 Seeds: UCLA, Memphis, Oregon, Illinois
9 Seeds: SD State, Minnesota, Villanova, Colorado
10 Seeds: Boise State, Iowa State, Missouri, Oklahoma
11 Seeds: Cincinnati, Temple, Wichita State, California
12 Seeds: St Marys / Tennessee, Belmont, La Salle / Ole Miss, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Valpo, Akron, Davidson, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Montana, Harvard, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast
15 Seeds: Iona, Northwestern State, Albany, Pacific
16 Seeds: WKU, Southern, LIU / Liberty, James Madison / NC A&T

Last Four In:
St Marys
Ole Miss
La Salle
Tennessee

Others in Consideration:
Middle Tennessee State
Kentucky
Virginia
Maryland
Umass
Southern Miss
Iowa
Bama

Observations:

1 Seeds: I gave Louisville the number 1 overall seed on the strength of their performance down the stretch and their overall body of work. I thought their resume was fairly close to Indiana and just watching Louisville play I don't think there is anyone better in America right now. Indiana by virtue of being the number 2 overall seed, does not get the Indianapolis regional. I could easily justify putting Duke as a 1 seed based on their overall body of work, but I simply could not put them ahead of ACC regular season and tournament champion Miami. That said I think Miami and Duke are both possible one seeds, even though I went with Gonzaga and Kansas.

2-3 seeds: The only additional thing I will note about the 2 seeds is I think Ohio State can get there if it wins the Big Ten tournament AND Ole Miss beats Florida. Otherwise I like my 2 and 3 seeds as they are right now.

4-6 Seeds: I think Arizona has a good case for a 4 seed, but I think a lot of that was based on early season luck. As a result I ultimately went with Michigan and Syracuse for the final four seeds. I could even see the committee making the leap and putting St Louis there. If North Carolina wins the ACC today, I may bump them up to a 5 seed, knocking down NC State. Likewise if VCU wins the A10 I may flip them and UNLV.

Some Specific Teams:

Villanova- There is plenty of weakness to their resume, but I ultimately decided to see them on the high end of where they may be seeded, because I value, and I think the committee has historically valued, really strong wins. Now if really strong wins come with a bad resume that is one thing, but Villanova's wins come with at least an alright resume. Because of this, I think the wins keep them in the 9/10 range.

Boise State- I like what Boise State accomplished in the number 1 RPI conference. I think that is going to matter to the committee. I think Boise is going to be a 10 seed, further away from the bubble than many experts have them.

Cincinnati- You may notice I moved Cincinnati up a couple spots on my bracket and are now the highest 11 seed. Essentially I made the decision that Temple and Wichita State should be behind Oklahoma and Cincinnati. I could, however, see the committee going the other way. I think Cincinnati is going to likely wind up with either the 10 or 11 seed. I know many people have them as a 9 and there is an outside shot at that, but honestly I don't think they will be there (which is probably a good thing).

Last Four In: I am really comfortable with St Marys, La Salle and Ole Miss at this point, though it would not shock me if either of them were left out. As I mentioned in my ranking the bubble piece, St Marys has a flimsy resume based on RPI wins, but their advanced numbers (Ken Pom) are really good and scream tournament team (and probably a higher seed than I have them). Frankly if the committee seeded them as high as a 10 seed I would be 100% Ok wit that. La Salle to me is a closer case, but I just think their overall resume is better than the rest of the bubble. I think Ole Miss played their way in by taking 2/3 from Missouri and making the finals of the SEC tournament. I did not necessarily think this would be enough at the beginning of the week, but none of the bubble teams around them did anything to warrant a bid. Ole Miss, of course, can beat Florida to earn the automatic bid, and avoid being in the first 4.

The last spot, however, is a nightmare. I ultimately went with Tennessee because I think they have more meat on their resume when it comes to beating tournament caliber teams than anyone but Virginia. Virginia would be an interesting case, but they did too much damage to their resume and closed the season poorly. There is a lot of talk about Middle Tennessee State, but wow is their body of work uninspiring. I'd be fine with them getting in, but I ultimately could not put them in over Tennessee. I do think switching Tennessee for MTSU is the spot I am most likely off.

I will put up my final bracket just before the selection show, after the games have finished.

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Current Projected Field

Here is my projected field as of 1050 AM on Saturday Morning.   I'll will likely update two more times.  One tomorrow morning and one reasonable close to the selection show.  

1 Seeds: Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas
2 Seeds: Miami (fl), Duke, Michigan State, New Mexico
3 Seeds: Florida, Georgetown, Ohio State, Kansas State
4 Seeds: Arizona, Syracuse, Marquette, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Saint Louis, NC State
6 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Colorado State, North Carolina
7 Seeds: UNLV, Butler, VCU, Creighton
8 Seeds: Memphis, SD State, UCLA, Illinois
9 Seeds: Minnesota, Villanova, Colorado, Boise State
10 Seeds: Iowa State, Oregon, Missouri, Temple
11 Seeds: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Cal
12 Seeds: St Marys / Ole Miss, Belmont, La Salle / Tennessee, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Valpo, Davidson, South Dakota State, Stephen F Austin
14 Seeds: New Mexico State, Ohio, Montana, Harvard
15 Seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Vermont, Pacific
16 Seeds: WKU, Southern, LIU / James Madison, Morgan State / Liberty

Last 4 In:
St Marys
LaSalle
Tennessee
Ole Miss

Others Still Alive (in order)
Alabama
Umass
Middle Tennessee State
Kentucky
Virginia
Maryland
Southern Miss
Iowa

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Current Projected Field


1 Seeds: Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville
2 Seeds: Georgetown, Kansas, Miami (Fl), Florida
3 Seeds: New Mexico, Michigan State, Michigan, Marquette
4 Seeds: Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, Syracuse
5 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, St. Louis
6 Seeds: North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, North Carolina
7 Seeds: Butler, VCU, Creighton, Memphis
8 Seeds: UNLV, San Diego State, UCLA, Illinois
9 Seeds: Minnesota, Villanova, Missouri, Colorado
10 Seeds: Boise State, Iowa State, Temple, Oregon
11 Seeds: Wichita State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, California
12 Seeds: St Marys / Kentucky, Belmont, Tennessee / La Salle, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Louisiana Tech, Valpo, Davidson, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Ohio, Montana, Harvard
15 Seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Vermont, Long Beach State
16 Seeds: Western Kentucky, Southern, LIU-Brooklyn / James Madison, Hampton / Liberty

Last 4 in:
St Marys
Tennessee
La Salle
Kentucky

Outside looking in:
UVA
Ole Miss
Bama
Iowa
Baylor
MTSU
Akron
Umass
Bama
Louisiana Tech

Ranking the Bubble

Here is my first attempt this year to rank the bubble teams.  I'll be posting my first projection of the field in a couple of minutes...

Teams I cannot see being left out, that have done just enough to get in:

Missouri
Colorado
Boise State
Iowa State
Temple
Oregon

Teams I think are most likely in, but I would not be shocked if the committee left them out.

Wichita State- The Shockers finished 3-2 against the RPI top 50 and second to Creighton in a very solid Missouri Valley conference. They also are 8-5 against the RPI top 100. A road win over VCU is the highlight of their resume overall, though the home win over Creighton is nice as well. They beat Southern Miss who has strong RPI numbers, but is probably not a tournament team. They also have a nice win over borderline bubble team, Iowa.

Oklahoma- Oklahoma probably has done enough as well. They only went 3-7 against the RPI top 50 but went a strong 6-2 against RPI 51-100. 5 of those 7 RPI top 50 losses are to teams that will be seeded very highly (Gonzaga will likely be a 1, Kansas could be a 1, Kstate and Oklahoma State will be be seeded well) and the other two losses were to an Iowa State team that has likely done enough. Oklahoma has beaten Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State, in addition to sweeping borderline bubble team Baylor. Of course all but one of the two Baylor games was at home. It's not a perfect resume, but it likely is enough.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats have had a bunch of chances against the RPI top 5 (13) and have come away with relatively few wins (4). The result is that UC can point to 4 really good wins over @Pitt, Marquette, Uconn, and a neutral floor win over Iowa State, but more often than not UC has failed to beat tournament caliber teams, particularly at the end of the season. Cincinnati does have good wins over Villanova and Oregon, both of which are likely to be tournament teams. UC is 5-2 against Rpi 51-100 which puts them under .500 against the RPI top 100 (at 9-13). UC has nothing that really qualifies as bad losses, but getting smoked 3 times down the stretch cannot look good. All in all UC's tournament resume looks strong enough on its own, but it is not the same team it was early and there is a ton of room for disagreement about the Bearcats. The committee's ultimate criteria is whether or not a team is among the best 37 at large teams and I don't think it would be unreasonable for a committee to decide UC is not. That said, I could say that about everyone below them and I think UC's strong schedule and quality wins are enough, to pull them in.

Cal- Cal's resume comes largely down to strong play down the stretch and a really good performance in a fairly deep PAC 10. Cal has some high quality wins beating Arizona and UCLA. Cal also has a good win over Colorado and a sweep of Oregon, both of which should be tournament teams. The weakness in the resume comes from a losing record (3-5) against the RPI top 50 and the RPI 51-100 (3-5 as well). However, most of those losses were in conference in a solid, though not great PAC 12. It seems to me that the Bears have likely done enough to get in.



Last four in:

St Marys- To me St Marys is a tournament team because I don't think you can watch them and not believe they are one of the 37 best at large teams. I would actually put them ahead of anyone in the prior group, because I just think they are a better basketball team. Advanced statistics tend to back that up as St Marys was dominant in the WCC against everyone other than probable 1 seed Gonzaga and KenPom has them as the 25th best team in the country. That said, of their 26 wins 22 of them are against teams ranked 100 and below. That is a lot. Their only win against the RPI top 25 was against Creighton. St Marys is 1-3 against the RPI top 25, but all three losses are to probable one seed Gonzaga. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 100. St Marys did itself a real disservice scheduling this poorly in the non-conference schedule, and the committee could very legitimately leave them out, BUT I think if you are taking the best 37 there is little doubt St Marys fits.

La Salle- With wins over Butler, VCU and Villanova, as well as a strong performance in a deep Atlantic 10, La Salle has reason to be optimistic that it could earn a bid. Winning 1 more might be necessary, but given the bubble status of teams behind them it may not. Getting to the a10 finals would lock up a bid. La Salle is only 2-3 against the RPI top 50 and 4-4 against 51-100 so there are holes in the resume.

Tennessee- There are a mess of SEC teams trying to lay claim to an NCAA tournament bid, but I think of the SEC bubble teams, Tennessee has the strongest resume. Tennessee is a strong 4-4 against the RPI top 50. It has wins over Florida, Missouri, and Wichita State, all who will likely be in the tournament. It also split with bubble team Kentucky and has wins over borderline bubble teams Umass, Bama and Xavier. It was swept by borderline bubble team Ole Miss and has two bad losses to Georgia. In short, Tennessee has performed really well against the probable tournament teams on its schedule, but there is a lot of muck against some of the weaker competition. I think as of right now the better parts of their resume win out, but Tennessee should probably beat Bama (and of course Miss State before that) if it wants to feel decent.

Kentucky- 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against RPI 51-100 does not scream tournament team. It's two wins against probable tournament teams are both at home against Missouri and Florida, and both wins came after the Noel injury. Kentucky also has a split against bubble team Tennessee and a win over borderline bubble team Ole Miss. Short of a trip to the SEC finals I think UK will really be sweating on selection Sunday (and even that would not make their resume really shine). If UK loses their first tournament game to Arkansas/Vandy winner, their chances drop significantly.

Others with a chance:

Virginia- This might be the weirdest resume I have ever seen. Virginia is 2-2 against the Rpi top 25, 2-0 against 25-50, and 4-1 against 51-100, making it a robust 8-3 against the RPI top 100. Virginia has performed its best against the best competition on its schedule. Virginia has a win over probable 1 seed Duke to go with wins over UNC, NC State, Wisconsin and Tennessee. That is strong stuff. Of course UVA only has an RPI of 67 having lost 7 games to teams outside of the RPI top 100, one of which was to RPI 316 Old Dominion. So that is the bad. UVA is also only 3-9 away from home. UVA's non-conference SOS was 307. This is the stat where borderline bubble teams have historically gone to die. When in doubt the committee has penalized teams that schedule poorly out of conference and rewarded teams that scheduled well. Still usually the doubt does not include top line wins that are as good as this Virginia teams. I think it is less than 50-50 they get in without a win over NC State tomorrow, but with that win the prospects get to over 50/50. How the committee handles UVA will be interesting.
Ole Miss- Just some shameful stuff from Ole Miss down the stretch losing to dreadful South Carolina and Mississippi State teams. Those losses are now tacked on to a resume that was already lacking. Ole Miss has a home win over Missouri, a sweep of bubble Tennessee and a win over borderline bubble Bama. I don't think that is enough right now, but Ole Miss has a favorable SEC tourney draw and each game will provide an opportunity to play their way in. If Ole Miss beats Missouri to start, they will be in discussion. If seeds hold, could a semi-final matchup with UK be a play-in game for the Big Dance?

Bama- Similar resume to Ole Miss, except that its shameful losses were to Auburn, Tulane and Mercer. 1-4 against the RPI top 50 and wins against quality teams are not even that impressive having only beaten UK, Tennessee, and Villanova among possible at large teams. I think Bama has to make the finals of the SEC tournament to have a shot.

Iowa - Another interesting resume, where the non-conference SOS is absolutely killer. Iowa did not do as much as UVA against the top, but it also did not fail as miserably against the bottom. Iowa is only 1-6 against RPI top 25, but those losses are to Indiana (2x), Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State...that is a murderer's row. Iowa is 3-2 against 26-50 and 1-0 against 51-100 to 100 with wins over Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State. Of course its non-conference SOS is 310 and 15 of its 20 wins are over teams outside the RPI top 100. I don't even think a win over Michigan State will be enough, I think Iowa must make the Big 10 finals (beating OSU along the way). That said, beat Michigan State and the discussion gets more interesting. For now Iowa is out.

Middle Tennessee State- They have a 29 RPI and a win over Ole Miss. They do not have much else. I don't think they get in, I don't think they should get in, but they would not be the least accomplished team to sneak in (See Utah State/Air Force 2006).

Louisiana Tech- It's easy for La Tech, win the WAC and make the big dance. Their resume deserves a brief mention, only because this type of team has snuck in on insanely rare occasions in the past (situations where I believe the committee has got it wrong). Their one top 50 win is over Southern Miss. They only have 3 wins over the RPI top 100. Sorry, that SHOULD not cut it.

Baylor- Their win over Kansas suddenly made things a little more interesting, but this resume is thin enough that there is plenty of more work to do. Baylor is only 3-10 over the RPI top 50 (though 2-0 against 51-100). It's 3 wins are very solid over Kansas, Oklahoma State and Kentucky. A trip to the Big 12 finals would give them 5 top 50 RPI wins and would likely include additional wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State. That would put them squarely on the bubble.

Akron- 1-2 against the RPI top 50 and 3-1 against RPI 51-100, in addition to a really dominating year in the MAC...Could that have been enough? Maybe. After the suspension of one of its best players, probably not. The problem is, Akron's wins simply were not good enough to overcome any slip-ups in the MAC, much less 2 in its final 3 games. Akron now must win the MAC to get in... I think.

Umass- The 1-6 record against the RPI top 50 is not good, however, the 7-2 record against RPI 51-100 is very solid. Umass is one of those teams like most of below the cut, that has a lot of work to do, but will have opportunities to do it. It's best win, however, is against bubble, La Salle and that is just a really lacking resume. A run to the finals that includes wins over Temple and VCU would make their resume a lot more interesting, however.

Xavier- Another weird resume, that really illustrates how far Xavier has come throughout the season. This was a bad team early, but I am 90% convinced right now they are one of the 37 best at large teams. Of course entire body of work matters, and Xavier's resume is not that of a best 37 at-large team at the moment. Xavier has 15 losses and is 0-5 against RPI 51-100. Of course it is also 5-3 against the RPI top 50, which is really good (like comparable to 6/7 seed good). If they beat VCU and Temple on their way to A 10 championship birth, they will get their RPI top 50 record up to 7-3 which would be stellar. Could that be enough to outweigh all the bad?