1 Seeds: KANSAS, GONZAGA, VILLANOVA, NORTH CAROLINA
2
Seeds: Louisville, Baylor, Florida
State, UCLA
3
Seeds: OREGON, KENTUCKY, Butler, Florida
4
Seeds: Duke, West Virginia, Notre Dame,
Virginia
5 Seeds: Arizona, SMU, Cincinnati, Purdue
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa State, Oklahoma
State
7
Seeds: St Marys, Wisconsin, Creighton,
South Carolina
8
Seeds: Miami (fl), Virginia Tech,
Michigan State, Seton Hall
9
Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, DAYTON,
Arkansas
10
Seeds: Providence, VCU, WICHITA ST., USC
11
Seeds: Northwestern, MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ST., Xavier, Illinois/Kansas State
12
Seeds: Vandy/Rhode Island, UNCW, NEVADA,
UT ARLINGTON
13 Seeds: VERMONT, CAL ST. BAKERFIELD, PRINCETON, AKRON
14 Seeds: IONA, BUCKNELL, WINTHROP, SOUTH DAKOTA
15 Seeds:
UNC GREENSBORO, NKU, JACKSONVILLE ST.,
FLORIDA GULF COAST
16 Seeds: NEW ORLEANS, NORTH DAKOTA, UC IRVINE/NC
CENTRAL, MT. ST. MARYS/TEXAS SOUTHERN
Last Four
In: Illinois, Vandy, Rhode Island,
Kansas State
First Four
Out: Iowa, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Cal
Predicted Conference Champs (by Standings) in CAPS.
Conference tournament Champs in BOLD.
The Bubble:
I have zero doubt these teams will be in:
St Marys,
Wisconsin, Creighton, South Carolina, Miami(fl), and Virginia Tech
Teams that are in unless the committee does
something crazy:
Michigan
State: They don’t have great wins, but
they have too many good wins. They have
6 RPI top 50 wins including a 4-1 record against RPI 26-50. They’ve struggled to beat RPI top 25 teams (2
wins against 7 losses), but have looked like a tournament team other than
that.
Seton
Hall: It’s really hard to differentiate
some of these Big East teams, but Seton Hall has avoided bad losses so I give
them the edge over Providence and Marquette.
Seton Hall has 4 top 50 wins (Butler, Creighton, South Carolina and
Xavier) to go with wins over bubble teams like Marquette, Providence, Cal and
Iowa. They’ve done their job against
bubble level competition and should be in the tournament.
Marquette: Their actual RPI and strength of schedule
aren’t great and they have some losses to other bubble teams, but they own a couple
great wins (Villanova and a Creighton on the road), to go with other solid wins
against Creighton, Xavier(2x), Seton Hall and Vandy. They have 10 top 100 wins including a 7-6
record against the RPI top 50.
Michigan: The variance of this team is telling, but
they have likely done enough. Their wins
over SMU, Purdue and Wisconsin are particularly strong for a bubble team. They also have quality wins over Michigan State,
Marquette and Illinois. They played a
lot of crap in the nonconference but likely did enough in the conference that
it doesn’t matter.
Dayton: They were the A10 regular season champions
and clearly were the team with the best resume in the A10. They swept Rhode Island, beat VCU twice and
beat bubble team Vandy. They also have a
couple other wins over good teams from smaller conferences (Winthrop and TN
State). The other big thing Dayton has
going for it is they avoided anything bad.
While they don’t have any wins over obvious tournament teams, they took
care of business against the bubble teams and that should keep them on the safe
side.
Arkansas: They are 29 in the RPI and though the rest of
their resume screams end of the bracket bubble team, being in the top 30 for a
major conference team makes going to the tournament virtually automatic. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with only
1 of those wins coming against a clear tournament team (South Carolina). Their next 3 best wins are against Vandy, Houston
and Texas Arlington. Of those, Vandy is
probably the only realistic at large contender.
I wouldn’t mind if the committee kept them out, but given the committee’s
history they look like a safe bet to dance.
Providence: There is enough good on this resume that the
bad, losses to BC and Depaul, will probably not hold them back. They own solid wins over Butler, Creighton,
Xavier, Rhode Island and Seton Hall (with Creighton coming on the road). Their win over Vermont is also sneaky
good. That gives them 6 RPI top 50 wins
and a 10-8 record vs. the RPI top 100.
Ultimately that will be enough.
I think they
will make, but there are reasons to be concerned:
VCU: The 23 RPI ranking is great, though if you
are not in a major conference it doesn’t make you a lock (as Colorado State
found out in the not so distant past). Their
win over Dayton is the biggest on their resume.
They also have wins over Middle Tn State and Princeton. I could see Middle TN State getting an
at-large bid if they don’t win their conference and Princeton is also a top 50
RPI win. That makes them 3-3 against the
RPI top 50 and 7-5 against the RPI top 100.
For a small conference team I think that’s enough as they did well
enough in the opportunities they were given, but it’s nothing that makes you
feel great about them.
Southern
Cal: Their resume is really two great
victories, both at home (SMU and UCLA) and avoiding bad outcomes. They only have 1 loss outside the RPI top 100
(on the road to Arizona State). They don’t have any real meat away from home
but their 6-5 record on the road and 2-0 neutral record allows them to avoid
being lumped in with Syracuse as a team that has completely failed on the
road. The BYU win is nice, though
nothing special. They are only 5-7
against the RPI top 100. I think they
are in, but there is plenty to worry about.
Northwestern: Beware of everyone calling them a lock. They are probably in but there are arguments
to keep them out. The Good: 3 wins over near definite tournament teams
(Dayton, Michigan and Wisconsin) and 2 wins over end of the bracket type bubble
teams (Wake and Iowa). It’s also good
that the Wisconsin win was on the road and they beat Dayton at a Neutral
site. They also have no “bad” losses. They are only 4-7 against the RPI top 50, but
they are 3-1 against 26-50 and have 10 wins against the RPI top 100. I think they’ll make it.
I have them in, but they’re definitely on
the bubble:
Middle TN
St.: They can avoid any doubt by just
going ahead and winning their conference tournament. I have them in my bracket assuming they will
do that. Right now I’d have them above
some of the teams at the end of the bubble, but any loss in their conference
tournament is likely a “bad loss” and I’d revisit them in that situation. I think they’ll be pretty close to the
cutline one way or the other if they don’t win their conference
tournament. They have 3 very good wins (UNCW,
Vandy and Belmont), but none of them are over teams that will definitely make
the tournament as at large teams.
Belmont running through the OVC tournament like they did the regular
season would have helped, but that didn’t happen. UNCW winning the CAA tonight would be good
for them as well. They are 2-1 against
the RPI top 50 and 4-1 against the top 100.
Xavier: They have probably done enough, but if the
committee looks hard at their resume without Sumner they could be in
trouble. The good for Xavier is they
played the RPI game well only playing 3 sub 200 teams. This is made more impressive because 2 were
in conference (Depaul twice) and one was in a preseason tournament game
(Mizzou). That means in the schedule
they can control Xavier completely avoided RPI killer type games. A+ to their administration for that. Xavier also has enough tournament caliber
wins to justify their inclusion. They
won at Creighton, and were able to beat both Seton Hall and Providence at
home. The home win over Wake is looking
more important as Wake will be competing with them for one of the last spots
and the neutral win over Clemson is nice as well. They have also really avoided bad losses as
11 of their 12 losses are against teams that SHOULD be dancing (The road loss
to Colorado isn’t really even a bad loss either). That said, Xavier is only 3-8
against the RPI top 50 and they haven’t beat anyone other than Depaul since
February 8. If the committee really
looks at the team they are now vs. the one they were with Sumner, Xavier could
be staying home.
Illinois: Illinois owns a bunch of wins over tournament
teams or near tournament teams. Wins
over VCU, Michigan State, Michigan and Northwestern (2x) are big feathers in
their cap. They also beat BYU and swept
bubble team Iowa. Their 11 top 100 wins
will look good as well. That said, they
are going to end up with 14 losses (unless they win their conference
tournament) and that includes losses to Rutgers and Penn State (2x). At the end of the bracket I think the
committee consistently values the wins over tournament teams over everything
else, so I have Illinois in, but wouldn’t be surprised if I missed on them.
Vandy: Could a team get in with 15 losses? Vandy will be a good test for that. They have 5 top 50 wins and 10 top 100 wins. The 5 top 50 wins are not just against bubble
competition they are all against teams that should be well inside the
tournament (none are lower than 33 in the RPI).
These wins include Florida (2x), Iowa State, Arkansas (on the road) and
South Carolina. The own a terrible loss
to Missouri, but all of their other losses are to top 100 teams. RPI ranks them as having the number 1
nonconference Strength of Schedule and the number 2 overall Strength of
Schedule. I think the committee rewards
that and puts a 15 loss team in the field.
Rhode
Island- 2 big wins against Cincinnati and VCU and not much else. They are only 4-7 against the RPI top 100. I have them in for now, but realistically I
think if they don’t make the conference tournament finals they are out.
Kansas
State: Three great wins over Baylor, WVU
and Oklahoma State. No bubble team has 3
better wins. They also have 12 losses
(likely will have 13) and those are their only wins over tournament teams. The Texas Tech and Oklahoma losses look bad
on the RPI (though they aren’t as bad when looking at the metrics). Right now they are my last team in the
field.
Seven teams that should be discussed for
the last few spots:
Iowa: 5 wins over teams that will almost certainly
be in the tournament (Purdue, Maryland, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Michigan). Several losses to teams around the bubble
(Illinois 2x, Northwestern, to a lesser extent Michigan State, Seton
Hall). RPI is only 72 which is very low
for a team included in the tournament. Two losses to teams below 100 in the RPI. Good reasons to have them on either side of
the cutline.
Syracuse: Some great wins (FSU, Duke, UVA), but they
are all at home. Hell even the good wins
over Miami, Wake, Monmouth and Clemson are at home. They sit at 80 in the RPI, have a loss to RPI
211 Boston College and are 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome. Despite the wins, that kind of road/neutral
number likely won’t fly with the committee.
They need to do something in the ACC tournament.
Wake
Forest: They are only 2-9 against the
RPI top 50. The win over Louisville is
excellent, the win over Miami is nice.
Other than that they missed on a lot of their chances. They have losses to VT(x), Syracuse and
Xavier among the bubble competition. All
of their losses are to tournament teams or bubble teams. At 32 in the RPI their computer profile is
the kind of team the committee sometimes like to let in, but I think they need
one more victory over tournament caliber competition.
Cal: A lot of people have them in but to me their
resume is incredibly lacking. Their only
victory over an at-large caliber team is over Southern Cal, by 1 point (though
on the road). I don’t even like the
Southern Cal resume that much. The
neutral site win over Princeton is nice, but then it is a whole lot of
nothing. They have two sub 100 RPI
losses and a total of 11 losses. I’d be
very surprised if the committee included them without at least one more win
over an NCAA tournament type team.
Clemson: They are not in right now. There is just no way, but because they are in
the ACC they could get there. Clemson
lost a bunch of close games and finished 6-12 in the conference. They swept Wake Forest, beat South Carolina
and have a win over UNCW. They’ll need a
run to the finals to likely have a shot.
Illinois
State: Not much to the resume other than
the win over Wichita State, but they along with the Shockers dominated a very
good league. I don’t think they did
enough but the committee should discuss them at least.
Houston: The Rhode Island win is the only one over a
possible at large team. The Vermont win
is better than many think and the UCF win is nice. They don’t have a tournament resume, but a
run to the AAC finals and maybe they can sneak that last spot (I still don’t
think it will be quite enough).
