Ranking the Bubble 2022

 Here's my bubble rankings...  I included Creighton who actually is probably higher than some teams not on my bubble at this point, but I had already done most of their write-up before their Big East run.  Everyone above this list I think will definitely be in the tournament.  The list goes from most likely to make it to least likely to make it. Assuming Davidson wins the Atlantic 10, Michigan is my last team in the field.

 

Ranking the Bubble

Creighton- When I started this I wasn’t sure they would make it, but the trip to the Big East tournament championship probably makes them a lock at this point.  They are 7-5 Q1 and 4-4 Q2.  They swept UConn, beat Nova at home and have a neutral court win over Providence.  They were 3-0 against Marquette.  Really their only issue is they were swept by bubble Xavier, but they gap between those teams is so big at this point it really doesn’t matter.

Davidson- You hope the committee rewards a team like this.  24-5 overall.  5-4 vs. Q1/Q2.  13-5 q1 through Q3.  They have had a neutral court win over Alabama (who will make the tournament) and a road win over bubble VCU.  They are 9-2 on the road.  The A10 is a good conference.  This resume should be enough.

TCU- Right behind Davidson in NET, but a completely different kind of resume.  They went 8-10 in the loaded Big 12 (every team is top 75).  5-7 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 13-11 Q1 through Q3.  A couple of those are elite wins, beating Kansas and Texas Tech.  We also shouldn’t downplay the win at Hilton against Iowa State.  They’ve probably done enough as well.

North Carolina- The Duke win likely put them over the top.  5-7 Q1/Q2 record is iffy, but 16-0 Q2/Q3 is going to help.   They played a pretty strong schedule.  They won at Duke and at VT for their 2 Q1 wins.  It’s not an overly impressive resume, but there isn’t too much bad on it.  Their win at Cameron should be enough to get them in the field. 

Wyoming- The weakest resume of the 4 potential Mountain West bids, but honestly, it’s a tournament worthy resume.  4-4 Q1 is better than most the bubble and they combine that with a 6-1 Q2 record.  None of their Q1 wins are tier 1 type wins (their best is probably home against Colorado State and Boise State), but it’s a reasonably strong resume and the kind the committee should and likely will reward. 

San Francisco- Likely not in as good of shape as their 25 NET ranking would let you believe, but a team that should sneak in the field nonetheless.  3-6 Q1 isn’t great.  6-2 Q2 is fine.  Combined 14-8 against Q1-Q3 is going to be better than much of the lesser bubble teams.  Of course they did a lot of their damage against 1 bubble team (BYU).  They do have a nice neutral court win against Davidson and are 7-2 on the road. 

Miami (Fl)- Remember not to overvalue the actual NET ranking (Miami sits at 61).  It’s the strength of wins and losses that ultimately get a team in the field (even if the committee doesn’t always evaluate that properly).  Miami is 4-3 in Q1 games which is going to look good compared to the rest of the bubble.  That 5-4 Q2 record isn’t hurting them either.  They won at Duke, at bubble teams Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, as well as a neutral site win over North Texas.  They have home wins over bubble teams UNC and Wake Forest.  They also beat Wake on the road which probably puts them above Wake in the pecking order.

Virginia Tech- The trip the ACC Championship game just might do the trick.  They are only 2-5 Q1 and 6-5 Q2.  But they are really strong in the predictive metrics, so strong that I think it will and should make a difference.  2 wins over bubble Notre Dame and a recent neutral court win over UNC should help.  Despite only going 11-9 in the ACC, I think they have a better version of the Notre Dame resume (unbalanced schedules can make for wonky conference results). 

 

Rutgers – The lowest NET team that has a shot at the tournament.  They were abysmal in the nonconference (and it was an abysmal nonconference schedule).  However, they went 12-8 in a loaded big ten.  They were 6-6 against Q1 teams at that included wins over Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin.  Their road record is pretty bad (4-9) but those wins are over Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Maryland.  I think they’ll find a spot at the end of the bracket. 

Texas A&M- Probably out before the SEC tournament, but I suspect they played their way to the right side of the bubble.  4-9 Q1 but 5-0 Q2 for a respectable 9-9 Q1/Q2 record.  They are 5-5 on the road and did some damage in neutral site games getting Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC tournament as well as a nice win over Notre Dame.  The more I look at their resume, the more I think they have done enough.

SMU- Their predictive metrics and resume metrics mostly look like a tournament team.  I think they should be in.  They are 2-2 Q1 and 4-4 Q2.  That’s not a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and the committee typically penalizes teams that get fat on Q3/Q4 teams.  Their nonconference SOS of 273 won’t do them any favors.  They have 2 wins over Memphis and a win over Houston.  You’d hope that would carry some weight.  They also have a win over Dayton who will be close to the bubble.  I kind of think they’ll sneak in, but wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t. 

Indiana- They weren’t a tournament team prior to the big ten tournament, the question now is, did they do enough?  They’re 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2.  That’s a cut line style resume.  Most of their Q1 losses are upper tier Q1 losses.  They have a win over Purdue and a neutral court win over Illinois.  Their neutral court win over Notre Dame could come in handy if they are among the last couple teams considered. 

Wake Forest- They have a really iffy resume.  1-4 against Q1, 4-3 Q2.  Their best wins are road VT, and home against UNC and Notre Dame.  This is an end of the bracket team or a team that just misses. 

Michigan- Only 5-10 against Q1 and 3-3 against Q2.  How much credit will the committee give to playing a ton of Q1 games, when you lose a bunch of them.  The home win over Purdue is great.  So is the home win of San Diego State.  They have a couple nice road scalps as well, beating OSU and Indiana.  They’ll probably be right at the cutline. 

Xavier-  If you took their resume and shook it up, spreading everything over the course of the season evenly you may feel better about it (which is why they could still sneak in).  They are 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2 (so under .500 Q1/Q2) and have a couple Q3.  The sweep of Creighton is nice and the neutral site win over Virginia Tech could carry some weight against another bubble team.  They are a cutline type team that really depends on how committed the committee is to the entire body of work.  If there is any eye test for the team they are now, they are going to be left out.

Oklahoma- 18-15 is going to be tough to get past, but the Big 12 is unbelievably deep and really tough at the top.  Despite those losses they sit 39 NET.  They just beat Baylor, who could be a 1 seed, have a win over Texas Tech and beat Arkansas on a neutral floor.  They are 4-12 against Q1 teams and 6-2 Q2.  It’s a marginal resume and probably too many losses but they could sneak in. 

BYU- Another team at the end of the bracket, that I’m skeptical did enough.  They are definitely behind San Francisco in the pecking order.  The home St Marys win is great, but other than that there isn’t quite enough there.  The loss to Pacific hurts.  I’d be fine if they got in above a Michigan type team that has more but also had a ton more opportunities to get there, but I think they are more likely to be just outside. 

Notre Dame-  I honestly don’t see how you can put this team in the tournament.  The Kentucky win is great and the win at Miami is nice, but this team is 4-9 in Q1/Q2 games.  They got fat against bad teams going 17-1 in Q3/Q4.  They also have 3 neutral court losses to teams that will be near the cutline (Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Texas A&M).  You have to think that carries some weight when the committee tries to evaluate the end of the bracket.  They went 15-5 in the ACC so maybe the committee will value that, but when you did deep this team doesn’t have a tournament resume.

Dayton- Their case really comes down to how much the committee cares about bad losses.  Dayton has 3 really bad ones (3 losses to teams 248 and below in NET) and a loss to NET 226 on the road.  Those losses really get in the way of a lot of good.  Their 3-2 in Q1 games and those wins are Kansas (neutral), Virginia Tech (Home) and VCU (road).  They are 6-5 in Q2 games including wins over tournament teams Miami (fl) and Davidson.  Their Q1/Q2 record and wins is going to be better than most the bubble, but those bad losses are a huge anchor on the resume.  The committee mostly values your wins more than your losses so I could see Dayton sneaking in, but bubble teams don’t usually have bad losses to this level and ultimately I think it will keep them out.

VCU-  They have the opposite problem of Dayton.  They did great against the bad teams but don’t have enough good wins.  They are 3-3 against Q1 teams (fine) but only 3-5 against Q2 teams.  Mid major teams really need to be over .500 against Q1/Q2 to give themselves a chance.  I think they are out.

UAB- They made their conference championship.  They sit 49 NET (and right around there in the predictive metrics).  They are only 4-3 Q1/Q2 and racked up 12 Q4 wins.  That typically doesn’t cut it.

North Texas- Similar resume to UAB.  They are 6-4 against Q1/Q2, so there is a little more, but they have 11 Q4 wins.  Probably not enough.

 

 

My Dad and the 2002 Cincinnati Bearcats

 

In December 2001, my parents told me that my dad had maybe a month to live.  He’d been fighting a battle with large mouth throat cancer for nearly 5 years.  The battle had some ups and surely a lot of downs, but my dad did his best to hide the latter from my sister and me. 

Christmas came and went, not much seemed to change.  My dad wasn’t working anymore, but I was still able to spend time with him and he seemed fine all things considered.  To my parents’ credit they made life as normal as it could be for my sister and me.  We’d be out with friends often, living our lives like everyone else.  We entered February, the conversation about my dad having maybe a month to live drifted to the back of my mind. 

Time is a funny thing.  It’s been twenty years since I lost my dad.  I remember so much about him.  I remember how he made me feel, what he cared about, how much he loved our family.  I remember his love of song lyrics, the way he laughed and joked with his best friend and his love of the ocean.  So many things, so easily come to mind, but conversations, few of those remain.  How do you remember individual conversations?  

                Sunday, February 10, 2002 was the last conversation I had with my dad.  It was in his room, where he spent much of his time late in life.  I had no idea it would be our last conversation.  Truthfully, it felt like any other... but I remember it, nonetheless.  I remember because the 2002 Bearcats were at the center of it. 

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                The Cincinnati Bearcats lost a road game at Oklahoma State to open the 2001-2002 season then proceeded to run off 20 straight wins.  In those 20 games they accumulated 10 wins over kenpom top 100 teams, including a 22 point win over #42 Dayton, a 34 point win over #26 Mississippi State, a 23 point win over #40 Charlotte, and a 20 point win at the Cintas Center against #23 Xavier (still the last Bearcat win at Cintas).  But the streak ended against Dwyane Wade at Marquette. 

                The Bearcats had a difficult schedule still ahead of them and with CUSA probably at its talent and coaching peak, winning the conference was suddenly a more daunting proposition.  The Marquette loss was the first of a 3-game road trip against NCAA tournament teams.  Cincinnati recovered nicely at Charlotte winning by 19 in an arena where they always seemed to struggle.  Then they went to play a rare, late season nonconference game against Wake Forest. 

                Wake Forest was coached by Skip Process and led by future NBA starter Josh Howard and Darius Songaila.  This would be a great test for a team fighting for high seed in the tournament.  At the time Wake was ranked 16^th in the country coming off a 90-66 win over UNC (completing their first sweep of North Carolina in 32 years).  It was a big game.

                And the Bearcats were up for it.  While Huggins’ teams were known for their defense, this Cincinnati team could be incredibly explosive.  Steve Logan scored 30 and had 7 assists, while the Bearcats put up 61 second half points in beating Wake Forest 103 to 94.  It was an up and down, thrilling basketball game (one that I’d love to watch again if anyone can find it).  After watching the game, I remember thinking, damn this Bearcat team is for real and hoping that maybe, just maybe…this would be their year. 

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                My dad wasn’t so sure.  He never was.  And of course, looking back at history he was right.  I don’t remember where I was that Saturday night, surely, I was at some friend’s house, but Sunday night I went into my dad’s room to talk and the one part of the conversation I remember to this day was about the Bearcats.  We talked about how well they played.  I was optimistic they could win the league again and get a high seed.  I raved about Logan and Imac.  My dad didn’t think they quite had enough and figured something would go wrong. 

I laugh thinking about it, because the conversation was so true to the often-pessimistic way he watched (and listened) to games (he was a worrier, one of the few traits I managed not to inherit from him).  I remember coming home from somewhere during the UC at Wyoming game in 1994.  UC was down 9 with like a minute and a half to play.  We were almost home, but my dad couldn’t listen for one more second.  He turned off the radio over my vocal, 9-year-old, objections.  As soon as we pulled into the driveway I burst out of the car, ran into the house and turned on the TV.  I was just in time to see The Gunslinger get fouled shooting a 3 and hit the winning free throws.  I missed his crazy run of points to put them in position to win.   

8 years later we were in his room talking about another Bearcat basketball team.  My optimism about the team contrasting with his worried thoughts about what could go wrong for them.  I know we talked about other things that night, but the Bearcats is what I remember.  It was such a normal conversation, but probably for that reason, such a special memory.

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                The 2002 Bearcats are my favorite UC team of my lifetime.  I know the 2000 team was more dominant (though fans probably don’t appreciate how dominant the 2002 was…we’ll get to this), but I loved the way this team played basketball.  And I think it’s special to me in another way…a deeply personal way.

My dad passed away on February 14, 2002.  He was 52 years old.  February 14 was a Thursday, but everything turned on a Monday.  From the time I was told my dad may have a month to live until Monday February 11, nothing really changed.  Then I came home from school and my mom told me that my dad’s body was breaking down.  He could pass away any day. 

My dad rested in his room, unconscious, unable to respond the next three days.  His brother came up from North Carolina to be with the family.  My dad seemed at peace, but there was no hope of him coming back around.  We all knew this was it. 

                Despite five years of knowing it could happen and despite the warning three months prior that he might not make it through the year, the sudden impact of the loss of your father is impossible for me to describe.  In the days after my dad passed, I did my best to go on living my life.  I was out with friends; I went to work that weekend and I attended two of my all-time favorite Bearcat basketball games. 

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                The Bearcats hosted Dwyane Wade’s Marquette team knowing a conference championship could be at stake.  The game took place on a Friday night.  I went with one of my best friends to this day.  Our seats ended up being behind a row of Marquette fans.  The Bearcats came out white hot early, building a 20-4 lead.  But that lead evaporated just as quickly with Marquette tying it at 24.  Cincinnati expanded the lead to 10 before the half but again Marquette responded taking the lead early in the second half. 

                It was a battle throughout the second half.   Every possession intense.  The Shoe was rocking.  The lead changed back and forth, but with 1:16 to play the Bearcats found themselves on the brink of defeat down 4 points.  Logan responded, like he did all season, hitting a pull up 2.  Marquette answered right back with a two of their own.  UC again found themselves down 4, this time with 30 seconds left.  But Logan pushed the ball up court, crossing his man up (with the slightest Jordan shove) to the point his man fell on his ass and Logan knocked down a 3.  24 seconds left and the lead was one.

                UC fouled Wade, who missed the front end of the one and one with a raucous Shoemaker Center doing everything it could to will the miss.  From the upper deck I was ready for some more Steve Logan magic.  He’d been a force at the end of games the last 2 seasons.  There was nobody I trusted more. 

                Huggins let the possession play out.  No timeout was called.  But with 10 seconds left, Logan gave the ball up.  Now Immanuel McCelroy had it.  Imac was a defensive stalwart, who also had a knack for huge plays.  He dribbled it from the corner to the top of key and then tried to attack.  Marquette defenders converged.  He passed.

                With 6 seconds left the ball found the hands of Donald Little, 18 feet from the basket.  He was wide open, but he wasn’t exactly the guy you wanted taking the huge shot.  Little squared.  Little elevated.  Little released……………………………………………….Splash!

                And the Shoe went ballistic.  Little had been huge early in the game and came through with his biggest shot as a Bearcat.  The Bearcats now had 3 seconds to finish it.  Cincinnati didn’t guard the inbounds, Marquette threw it to Henry who back rimmed a 40-footer at the buzzer.   I turned to celebrate with my friend who was already running down to fake high five the row of Marquette fans below us as they left. Cincinnati was now a game ahead of Marquette in the conference.

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                At some point in 2002 the West Virginia job opened.  Everyone knew they were going after Huggins and there were a lot of rumors that he was going to take it.  Amidst that backdrop, the 2002 Bearcats hosted Memphis, trying to close out another outright Conference USA Championship.  A talented, but underachieving Calipari coached team gave the Bearcats everything they could handle all afternoon. 

                Dejaun Wagner and Steve Logan went back and forth.  Memphis built an 8-point lead, but Logan just wouldn’t let it get beyond that.  The Bearcats missed all 16 of their threes, but Logan’s mid-range game could be fierce.  Again, the Bearcats found themselves trailing late, needing some heroics to pull off another win.

                I sat in baseline/courtside seating for this game.  At that time UC had desk seats behind the baseline on both sides of the basket right next to where the cheerleaders sat.  Down 2 late, UC needed to go the length of the court.  They inbounded to Logan, and he did just that.  He ran toward me, pulled up from around the foul line and buried it to force OT.  I cheered with the friend I took to the game, then ran behind my seats giving high fives to the front row of students.  The place was as loud as I have ever heard it. 

Let’s talk about just how damn great Steve Logan was in 2002.  You’ve read about some of his enormous shots in those two games, but Logan had the best offensive season in modern Bearcat history.  He was a consensus first team all-American, and frankly should have been National Player of the Year.  He had a 29.4% usage rate and took 30.7% of his team’s shots when he was on the floor.  Despite carrying that kind of offensive load, he had a ridiculous 60% True Shooting Percentage, just bonkers for a guard, particularly for one his stature.  Taking 229 threes, many off the dribble, he made 38% of them.  He was 87% from the line and perhaps most impressively 52% from 2.  Everything was a good shot for Steve Logan.  But he wasn’t just asked to score, he facilitated everything.  He had a 32% assist rate (with only a 14.3% turnover rate).  He rarely fouled, constantly got fouled and played nearly 85% of the minutes.  He did it all and a Bearcat offense with merely decent offensive talent outside of Steve Logan was elite because of it. 

And he and his Bearcats found a way to win in overtime against Memphis, clinching another conference championship and keeping the dream of a 1 seed alive.  Nobody wanted to leave.  We didn’t know if this would be Huggins’ last home game.  And as the Shoe went bonkers after the game, Huggins made it clear it wouldn’t, coming back on the floor and telling the crowd he would be back.  The place went bonkers. 

The Bearcats would roll through the conference tournament, dump trucking South Florida (73 kenpom) 79-57, then beating Charlotte and Marquette (both tournament teams) by 16 and 14, respectively.  This earned them a one seed. 

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                In the second round of the NCAA tournament UC drew an underachieving UCLA team that was one of the most talented in the country.  UCLA had future NBA players, Matt Barnes, Jason Kapono, Dan Gadzuric and Cedric Bozeman.  They had several WTF losses, but also had 9 wins over kenpom top 40 teams including a 1 seed (Kansas), two 2 seeds (Oregon and Alabama) a 3 seed (Arizona) and a 4 seed (Southern Cal).  And good UCLA showed up that day. 

                Frankly, as talented as UCLA was (and they were the more talented team), Cincinnati was the better team throughout.  But it seemed like every damn break went against them to keep UCLA in it.  Whether it was Knight’s banked in 3 from the corner or the late shot clock airball falling into Kapono’s lap, UC couldn’t quite finish UCLA.  The game went to 2 OTs with UC having chances to win the game at the end of regulation and the first OT, before UCLA pulled it out.  A painful end, to an incredible season, made more so because it truly was one of the only tournament losses I left the game thinking, “wow, we played a damn good basketball game…and they still somehow beat us.” 

                What sucks about it, is that Bearcat team was absolutely positioned to have a chance to win the National Championship.  They were viewed as the 4^th best one seed going into the tournament and the 2 seed in their region (Kelvin Sampson’s Oklahoma team) was viewed basically as their equal, but the kenpom numbers actually suggest they were the second-best team (ahead of the Maryland team that won it).  They were balanced, 7^th in adjust offensive efficiency and 3^rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.  On offense they did everything well (64^th in EFG%, 12^th in Turnover rate, 53^rd in OFF Reb Rt, 92 in FTA/FGA).  They shot well from 3, from 2 and from the foul line.  On defense they did everything well except forcing turnovers (where they were just average).  They were first in EFG% D, 59^th in DefRebRt and 40^th in FTA/FGA.  They didn’t give up many threes and were the best team in the country defending from 2.  This was a team that in retrospect was even better than we realized.  Still my favorite Bearcat team of my lifetime. 

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                And after the loss to UCLA, I remembered my dad was right.  Something went wrong, it always did.  I still think I was right that they were good enough to win the title, but good enough doesn’t always get you there, as Bearcat basketball fans have learned over the years.  But not only was that a great team, it was a team that brought me pure joy during one of the hardest times of my life. 

Growing up I would go to UC football and basketball games with my dad.  We only had UC basketball season tickets a couple years (Wingfield’s Freshman year then Fortson’s freshman year), but it was always a favorite memory of mine.  My dad worked at UC.  My mom, my sister and I would drive to Kenwood mall to meet my dad then he and I would drive back down to Clifton for the game.  I’d usually grab some Chick-fil-a or Sbbaro before we headed down. 

After my dad passed, that 2002 team was the perfect escape, their brilliance capturing my attention game after game.  Since then, Bearcat sports often make me think of my dad, giving me a connection to him, long after I lost him.  He went to grad school at UC, he worked at UC, we attended games together at UC.  He struggled with the after affects of his surgery in 1997 and many different forms of treatment those last 5 years, but in those spurts where he felt good enough, he still went back to work at UC.  During his Eulogy, his best friend noted that when he went back to work at the College of Business his friends and colleagues stood by him as he struggled with the debilitating side effects of his cancer.  Just another aspect of the university and its people I’ll always love. 

The university has continued to mean a ton to me.  The Bearcat football and Bearcat programs, especially so.  This 2002 team above them all. 

It’s been 20 years since I lost my dad.  My son now shares his name.  The world needed another Gary Raines.  You never know what moments will stand out in your mind when someone is gone.  I think about what I’ll tell me kids about their grandfather they will never get to meet.  I want to tell them everything, but I dread telling them too soon.  I worry about the questions that may come when I tell them about losing my father.  

I think about him often, this time of year more than most.  I think of him on holidays.  I think of him at the beach.  I think of him when my kids do something new, when I listen to a song with just the right lyrics, or when I’m around his friends.  I miss him.  I wish my wife and children knew him.  But I’m grateful for the near 18 years we had together.  I’m thankful for the things he taught me and the things we shared.  I’m thankful that during the most trying of circumstances he and my mom kept my life as normal as possible. 

And I’m thankful we had that one last conversation, without knowing what the next days would bring.  I wish he’d been wrong, and the 2002 Bearcats had gone the distance, but it’s probably appropriate he was right.  How else could things have gone?  Memories are all I have left of my dad, but I know the impact he made on me and continues to make on the family I am raising.  And though we’ll never actually talk again, that one last conversation, will always be there too. 

 

               

 

Fixing the Star Wars Prequels

 

I’m doing a treadmill rewatch of the Star Wars movies and just finished the prequel trilogy.  I didn’t misremember, the first two are bad, but I was once again struck by how relatively good Revenge of the Sith is, despite having to deal with the issues of the first two.  Sith manages to make Anakin and Palpatine’s relationship completely believable and his turn makes complete sense in that context.  It establishes his worrying about Padme, his resentment of the Jedi Counsel, his fondness for Palpatine and further resentment of what Counsel asks him to do.  Palpatine preys on that by creating a plausible set of alternative facts about the Jedi motives that play to Anakin’s ego and offers an aspirational plan to bring peace to the galaxy.  And the backdrop of all this, is offering Anakin hope for protecting Padme. 

 

                All this was done well and yet, it could have had so much more power if the prequels had been good movies that built better to this conclusion.  The Phantom Menace is a bad movie that has the bones of a decent story.  Attack of the Clones is a disastrous movie, with a meandering plot we care little about and an awkward love story that is completely unnatural in how it plays out.  It’s to me one of the biggest failures in movie history.  Here’s how I think the Prequels should have gone:

 

The Phantom Menace (Episode 1)

 

                The Phantom Menace should have been better as some of the broad structural ideas of the movie work well.  In the context of the series, this movie is about the Jedi finding Anakin and choosing to teach him.  It’s also about Palpatine emerging as a major power player on the galactic scene and to a lesser extent creating the story of how Anakin met Luke and Leia’s mother.  These are smart, reasonable, achievable goals to open a prequel trilogy.  As a result you can see the bones of a movie that works. 

                However, the problems are enormous:

1.  Jar Jar Binks and the Gungans as a whole are horribly portrayed.  Jar Jar is basically there for comic relief, but isn’t funny in the least.  The Gungans seem moderately incompetent.  The idea of this underwater civilization being part of Naboo is fine and could have worked if they’d made any effort to make that civilization believable and their participation in the story matter. 

2.  Anakin is too young.  He should be a teenager at the very least.  It would work better for the Padme/Anakin relationship and it could produce a more complicated early relationship with the Jedi, which I’ll explain in a minute. 

3.  Anakin should have more agency in the final battle.  His involvement shouldn’t be an accident. 

 

New story:

 

                Jedi are sent to Naboo to convince the Trade Federation to make peace with Queen Amidala and the Naboo.  They stumble into an invasion.  (The initial setup is fine).  The Jedi sneak down to the planet rescue Queen Amidala from the invading army (see we’re still good).  They end up on Tatooine and need a ship part to get the Queen to Coruscant. 

                Jedi discover a 16 year old Anakin, a slave (and sure podracer that was fun enough).  Qui-Gon senses his strength in the force, his instincts/the force tell him Anakin matters.  Sure get into the prophecy…don’t run his blood for midichlorians.   Have teen Anakin friendly and interested in the Jedi, but also questioning things immediately like, “if the Jedi are so powerful and just, why are my mom and I in slavery. Isn’t that something the Jedi should have eradicated?” 

                When Qui-Gon reveals he has freed Anakin from bondage it shouldn’t just be a question about whether his mom is going or not.  Anakin should be arguing with the Jedi to take her.  He should be questioning why they can’t just free her, take her without consent of the slave owner.  He should be forceful that is what is right.  And his mom should convince him to go without her.  Also Padme should comfort him on the way to Coruscant and she should also say she doesn’t understand why the Jedi can’t save his mother, but the Jedi have their own way. 

                All of that is important because we are setting up Anakin early on to be both in awe of the Jedi and wanting to be a Jedi, but also to question why the Jedi do things the way they do.  We’re giving Anakin a reason to blame the Jedi when his mother dies in the next movie (though not fully and not turn on them yet).  We are giving Anakin and Padme an important, tender moment when he can see her on his side (it should not be romantic at this point).   And using their unwillingness to free slaves, we’re giving him a reason to think his being powerful can do more good than the Jedi down the road. 

                Going to Coruscant, most of what happens there is fine.  How Palpatine becomes Chancellor is probably the biggest thing episode one got right.  Nobody had to explain each of his maneuvers but you could see how all the conflict had been put in place to benefit him and you could see how nobody would have discovered him yet (this is a problem in episode 2 that I’ll get into).  Everything is set up for Padme to go back and save the Naboo people. 

                Padme reveals herself to the Gungans (who again in the new movie would be portrayed as competent, different kind of society, separate but a part of that world) and negotiates their assistance.  The end battle scene plays out similarly but with 1.  Less comic relief in the Gungan battle and 2. More agency from Anakin.  The Qui-Gon / Obi-Wan Darth Maul fight is kind of perfect.  Leave it the way it is. 

Prior to the fight Qui-Gon tells Anakin to get the empty fighter and stay there.  Anakin gets in but stubbornly decides he can help more by flying the damn thing.  He fires it up, takes out some battle droids in the hanger, then flies out to battle.  Anakin senses what must be done to destroy the ship and stop the droid army then executes it. 

Now we have a movie that has:

1.        Introduced us to Anakin, our tragic protagonist who we know will turn.

2.       Introduced Anakin to the Jedi, who take him under their wing.

3.       Created a basis for resentment and shown that Anakin already has reason to question how the Jedi operate. 

4.       Adjusted the age to create a more compelling relationship between Padme and Anakin. 

5.       Kept the circumstances that work regarding Palpatine and his first big steps toward becoming emperor. 

We ditched the flaws and brought forth the strengths and in doing so made The Phantom Menace a very compelling movie. 

 

Attack of the Clones (Episode 2)

 

                Unlike The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones is just an utter disaster from beginning to end, with little redeeming about it. 

1. Its love story feels forced and contrived. 

2. The general plot doesn’t do enough to advance Anakin’s turn / relationship with Palpatine

3.  The story makes the Jedi look completely incompetent because they still are failing to recognize or even really suspect that Palpatine could be a threat. 

4.  Dooku feels extraneous, like a villain added to buy time for the Palpatine confrontation in the final movie. 

5.  The need to shoehorn in Janga/Boba Fett felt like fan service to the fullest extent. 

 

About the only important development in Attack of the Clones is the creation of the clone army and putting it in control of the senate / Palpatine.  Anyways, I have a thin outline of a movie I think addresses these issues and properly builds toward Revenge of the Sith.

 

New Story:

 

The scroll discusses the ongoing war and toll it is taking on the Republic’s resources.  Many in the senate are looking to end the war and are introducing a truce with the trade federation for the Senate’s consideration (that has favorable terms for the trade federation).  Chancellor Palpatine has suggested the purchase of a Clone army to lessen the toll on republic soldiers and not give into the demands of the trade federation, but the Jedi Council has grown concerned about Palpatine’s power and what this purchase might mean…

This centers the story around Palpatine vs. the Jedi counsel, while introducing the idea of the Clone Army from the jump.  I’d start out with a scene between Anakin and Palpatine where Palpatine is discussing the dangers of giving into the Trade Federation demands.  Maybe some points that this will expand slavery in the fringes of the galaxy.  Anakin discussing how master Obi-Wan is worried about more bloodshed and Palpatine stressing Jedi have their purpose, but are often too indecisive to bring true peace to the galaxy.  Palpatine asks for Anakin’s help bringing Padme on board with rejecting the truce, stressing she could be the key, and pointing out that Padme and Anakin have been friends since Naboo and she trusts him.  Anakin makes no promises, says he must discuss it with Obi-Won.

I envision a scene where Obi-Won and Anakin are discussing this and there is an attack on Obi-Won’s life which we later find out was Palpatine trying to get rid of the only Jedi Anakin fully and absolutely trusts.  Anakin saves him, as he has done many times and they banter about how he always saves him. Obi-Won speaks to the counsel about what Anakin told him, the counsel pushes Obi-Won to have Anakin spy on Palpatine but Obi-Won knows Anakin and for this movie convinces them they cannot ask that of him.  Jedi Counsel sends Obi-Won to investigate the Clone Army believing Palpatine could be hiding something.  Anakin wants to go, but Obi-Won tells him to be patient, await his return.  He asks if Anakin will be seeing Padme.  Anakin says yes, Obi-Won tells Anakin he senses issues that could arise from that and to be careful, says the counsel does not want him to take sides between Palpatine and the representatives wanting a Truce. 

Padme and Anakin’s relationship in this movie isn’t built on them hiding away on Naboo but on their interactions regarding the Truce and real political discussions that spark Padme’s curiosity.  She confides in him about her concerns for the republic and the consolidation of power under Palpatine.  He makes arguments on Palpatine’s behalf, stressing he knows he shouldn’t disagree with the counsel that wants him to take no side.  His arguments sound reason, Padme appreciates his openness with her.  He eventually confides in her about his dreams about his mother.  She convinces him to go to Tatooine to find her.    

We get a scene with Count Dooku and the Emperor where Palpatine reveals the Jedi are getting too close and too suspicious of him.  He tells Count Dooku it is time to reveal himself and draw their attention.  He also reveals he believes Anakin is the key to their destroying the jedi.  He tells Dooku his attempt to take out Obi-Won failed, but that Obi-Won is going to investigate the Clone Army and Dooku should reveal himself there and kill him. 

These changes specifically make the Jedi seem more competent in that they suspect Palpatine earlier, but also show Palpatine’s cunning in using Dooku as their false enemy to distract from himself.  I think this is better use of Dooku.  It creates an early confrontation between Obi-Won and Dooku.  In the meantime Anakin arrives on Tatooine and there is a similar scene from AofC where he discovery her death and kills everyone.  He comes back and again confides in Padme.  She comforts him. 

We get a confrontation between Obi-Won and Dooku, but Dooku escapes…  Obi-Won tracks him back to a huge droid army and notifies the counsel that he believes he has found the Sith behind everything.  He says they need to send the biggest army they have and some Jedi for assistance in taking out the Droid army and apprehending Dooku.  When Anakin finds out he notifies Palpatine who uses it to convince the Senate to authorize the Droid army’s approval.  There’s a huge battle, Anakin and others confront Dooku who again escapes, but it is a victory for the Clone Army. 

This story makes more narrative sense, it solves many problems of episode 2, it makes the Jedi look more competent, it creates a more natural opportunity for Padme and Anakin’s love to blossom (and the changes from Episode one don’t make that seem so creepy).  It shows Palpatine’s focus on Anakin in more depth and develops Anakin’s relationship with Palpatine.  It also shows the conflict between Anakin and the counsel, but the connection and trust between Obi-Won and Anakin. 

 

Episode I and II were huge lost opportunities.  Episode III holds up remarkably well despite those missed opportunities, but these changes would strengthen that movie even more as we’d better believe Padme/Anakin’s bond.  We’d understand how Palpatine continued to deceive the Jedi as he gained power.  We’d also see more of Palpatine’s attempts to corrupt Anakin from early on.  Obviously this is a skeleton story.  There are plenty of other scenes that could be added that fit within these parameters but I think this would have told a better story that fit better into the story of the Emperor’s rise and Anakin’s corruption. 

Bearcats Have a Path to Victory

 

I don’t have much time for writing about my Bearcats these days, but with an historic matchup just around the corner and minimal hearings this week I decided to take some time and give my thoughts. 

 

How The Bearcats Got Here

 

                Before we dive into the game, let’s take a little time to appreciate the journey.  The program bottomed out in the late 80s before Tim Murphy came to resurrect it.  Murphy redshirted an entire class, took a ton of losses and in his final year (before leaving for Harvard) raised them to an 8-3 record.  Then leaving the independent ranks for Conference USA and finding Rick Minter, an average/above average coach not good enough to leave, but good enough at identifying talented players and assistants to compete, stabilized the program.  A ton of great players and coaches came through during the Minter/Murphy stretch.  (I celebrated that era in THIS post)  After that 8-3 season the Bearcats were rarely too bad, but never particularly great.  It was a stable, solid program waiting for something big.

                Something big would come in the form of a Big East invite.  The invite made possible by an elite basketball program, a stabilized, solid football program, and the foresight of Bob Goin and Joe Steger investing in the future of UC athletics.  UC moved on from Minter, bringing in Dantonio who built a foundation that their next coach used for thrust the Bearcats onto the national scene.  Brian Kelly brought the fans to Nippert in year 1, he brought the program to a BCS Bowl in year 2 (behind maybe the MOST IMPORTANT 3 game stretch in UC football history) and he ran the table in year 3 leaving the Bearcats one agonizing Big 12 second from playing for a National Championship.  (I wrote about the season in depth in 2019 here are my 2 favorite pieces:  Experiencing Bearcat Football... and One Impossible Season... )

                What Kelly built, Butch Jones mostly kept intact.  There were more slipups and a noticeable dropoff, but they still shared 2 more Big East Championships.  Then the Big East collapsed, the AAC was born (a tweener conference that offered respite while UC desperately looked for an exit), Butch left and the program collapsed under Tuberville.  But the collapse proved temporary, as the program had not lost the luster from its rise.  The right coach could bring it back, and Luke Fickell was just that. 

                After a 4-8 debut season (that could have been much worse) focused on building the culture and creating a foundation, Fickell has done nothing but win.   The insertion of Freshman QB Des Ridder led to a surprise with at the Rose Bowl to open 2018.  A young Bearcat team took advantage of a so-so schedule and an ability to win close games to finish 11-2, capping it off with a win over VT in the Military Bowl.  The following year the Bearcats again won 11 games, winning the AAC East, but lost back to back weeks at Memphis (the second being the conference championship) to end the regular season.  The foundation had been laid for something bigger in 2020.

                Amidst a crazy COVID season the Bearcats were dominant.  They went 9-0, blasting nearly everyone in the AAC along the way.  They rocketed into the top ten of the human polls and several computer rankings and led nearly the entire way in the Peach Bowl before losing on a 53 yard field goal against Georgia.  That loss at the time was excruciating, but in many ways it could be the most important loss in Bearcat history.  After that loss, player after player seemed to decide to come back one more time.  The COVID season had offered an opportunity for players to get an extra season.  Between those players and other draft eligible players who would have been drafted coming back, UC was looking at an incredibly talented and exceptionally experienced team returning for 2021.  The expectations were enormous.

                And they met those expectations at every turn.  They won by 14 at Indiana despite a disastrous start fueled by penalties in their first game against a hostile crowd since 2019, finishing the game on a 38-10 run.  They built a 17 point lead at Notre Dame, one that should have been bigger but for some chip shot field goal misses, and held on to win by 11.  They dominated the best teams in the AAC beating UCF by 35, SMU by 34 and Houston by 15.  The Bearcats had a 99 or 100% postgame win expectancy in 11 of their 13 games according to SP+.  Their 2 lowest postgame win expectancies were 87% at Indiana and 88% against Tulsa.  In short, they were dominant all season. 

 

The Bearcats Belong

 

                The naysayers might be loud, but they aren’t that prevalent.  The people that matter, polls, computer rankings and oddsmakers all have concluded the Bearcats are among the elite of college football this season.  They were a preseason top 10 team.  They were favored at Notre Dame.  They’ve been in the top 4 of the human polls the entire back half of the season.  The main computer rankings and the oddsmakers have them somewhere between the 5^th and 7^th best team in the country.  In fact looking at a rough average of the computers and oddsmakers the best teams in college football this season can be grouped like this:

 

Alabama/Georgia

GAP

Michigan/Ohio State

GAP

Cincinnati/Notre Dame

GAP

Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Texas A&M/Utah/Clemson

 

                Oddsmakers see UC as the 5^th best team.  SP+ has UC as the 5^th best team.  Sagarin has UC as the 6^th best team (behind a Notre Dame team it beat at Notre Dame).  FPI has UC as the 7^th best team (behind Notre Dame and Oklahoma).  Seeing as Ohio State lost 2 of its 3 biggest games, having Cincinnati in over OSU despite those numbers is completely reasonable and in fact UC stacks up favorably to many CFP teams in the past.  These are all predictive metrics which typically are not favorable to G5 teams and when you look at resume metrics, the Bearcats are a consensus top 4 team.   UC has earned their spot.

 

Bama -13.5 is Vegas Showing this Bearcat Team a Ton of Respect

 

                You see a -13.5 line and immediately may think, wow, Vegas thinks UC is going to get killed, but looking at Bama’s history in these semi-final games and their strength in the computers, keeping this line below 2 tds tells you Vegas believes in this Bearcat team.  Since the 2015 -2016 season Bama has won its semi-final matchups by 38 (38-0 over Michigan State), 17 (over Washington), 18 (over Clemson), 11 (over Oklahoma, where Oklahoma chipped away at a huge early deficit) and 17 (over Notre Dame).  Bama wins these games by multiple scores. 

Bama is clearly the favorite.  Bama is the better team.  Bearcat fans mostly know and accept this.   There are only 3 other teams that would be less than a 2 TD underdog against Bama on a neutral field (Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State).  Bama has the Heisman trophy winning QB.  They have maybe the best defensive player in the country.  They are the deepest, most talented team in the country (the only other argument on that front is Georgia, but the QB gap between those teams matters).  This is a true David v. Goliath matchup because Bama has separated itself from the rest of college football over the years.  But, this Bearcat team has potential advantages that present a plausible path to victory. 

 

How the Bearcats Win the Cotton Bowl

 

                I’m not going to play the prediction game.  The more likely scenario is a Bama win, but games are played on the field and I firmly believe this Bearcat team can shock the world.  I touched on this earlier, but the Bearcats have an incredible blend of talent and experience among its juniors, seniors and super seniors.  Eight to Ten players from that group will likely be drafted this spring, including multiple players projected as first round draft picks.  While the Bearcats are at a depth of talent disadvantage, having that much talent and that much experience cannot be overlooked. 

                Here’s my big contradictory statement regarding this football game:  I think Cincinnati matches up better with Bama than they do against Michigan or Georgia, but I would have rather been matched up with Michigan or Georgia.  The reason I didn’t “want” Bama is Bama has the best coach in college football history and the Heisman trophy winning QB (QB is probably the “weakness” of Georgia and Michigan).  However, Bama’s offensive strengths play into the Bearcats’ defensive strengths and while Bama may be able to sustain drives running the ball they aren’t a particularly strong running team.  I think the Bearcats would welcome Bama attempting to exploit UC’s run defense which is better than some fans complained about, but definitely not the strength of the defense.  The Bearcats will give up yards on the ground if teams are patient about running it, but the defense tends to get enough negative plays/stops to not give up points.  It will be interesting to see whether Saban sees UC’s run defense as a potential weakness to attack and tries to win that way. 

                UC’s secondary is elite, but Bama has elite wide receiver talent and a Heisman QB throwing to them.  This will be a test unlike any other for Sauce and Coby (and Cook/Hicks/Bush). The Bearcats have been great about preventing big plays.  If they can prevent big plays from the Bama wide receivers they’ll have a great chance to hold Bama in the 20s, which is what they need to do to win.  I’m really interested to see if Saban has Williams on the Boundary against Sauce most the time.  I believe Sauce would be up to the challenge.  That doesn’t mean he couldn’t be beat, but that he’ll make his share of plays. 

                The biggest key to the Bearcat secondary holding up will be if they can continue to get pressure on the QB.  The Bearcats have been pretty great at Havoc rate most of the season.  Early in the season that wasn’t translating into sacks but often translated into turnovers as QBs tried to make plays while getting hit (see Indiana and Notre Dame).  Against Houston that translated into a barrage of sacks.  Bama is undoubtedly the most talented offensive line UC has faced, but they haven’t been typical Bama on the line.  Multiple teams have been able to get to Young by bringing pressure (Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn all did this to varying degrees of success).  If UC’s defensive line can win some battles that should open up some seems for the blitzing linebackers and defensive backs. 

                I think UC’s defensive line depth might be an underrated positive in this game.  UC only plays 3 defensive lineman at a time, but the backups have come in and done their job all season.  I could see someone like Briggs having a big day.  The other complicating factor is when they disrupt Young they need to prevent him from escaping.  His buying time is a recipe for the talented Bama receivers finding daylight against UC and it is where a lot of their big plays are made.  UC needs to come out aggressive, stay aggressive and show some wrinkles in their blitz schemes Bama hasn’t seen on film (I’d like to see Coby/Bush play more press man, as there won’t be a ton of that on film and I’d like to see some new, unique pressures).  UC is talented enough to be disruptive and if the front seven is disruptive the defensive backs are likely to hold up.  Keeping Bama in the low 20s is going to be essential to winning this game. 

                If the defense does those things the question becomes, can the offense and special teams hold up their end?  I have absolute confidence in Desmond Ridder and his weapons to make plays if given time and confidence Ford can bust some big runs if the line creates some space…everything really comes down to what the offensive line can do.  It’s unfair to call the offensive line a weakness for the Bearcats.  UC gave up very few sacks, ran the ball well with multiple running backs and hit on many down the field plays that took time to develop.  They had 3 offensive lineman that were first team all-conference.  They were a top flight AAC offensive line.

But offensive line is clearly the position group that is least proven to be able to play at an elite level.  A less experienced version of this group struggled against Georgia in last year’s Peach Bowl (particularly when their now departed NFL offensive tackle was ejected), and at times struggled against Notre Dame (though opened some holes in the second half and gave Ridder enough time most the game).  Bama is a completely different animal.  I suspect the tight ends will chip more than normal before releasing, hoping to buy Ridder the time to make the reads he is capable of making.  I don’t think they’ll be able to consistently hold up, but if they can enough this offense can make the kind of chunk plays they need to score. 

I’ve seen two big issues from the line all season:

1.  They have struggled when teams sell out to stop the run.  This has been true even against inferior teams who are bound and determined to take away UC’s bread and butter running plays on early downs (inside zone and duo) and been true in short yardage situations both near the goal line and on third/forth and short.  So while UC’s YPC look great because they have opened some big holes and their backs (especially Ford) are great at breaking huge runs, their actual down to down success rate running is a concern.  I doubt Bama is going to sell out on early down runs, so it will be interesting to see if the line can hold up enough to open some holes and sustain a few drives with the run.  I think they’ll need to pass to set up the run and this staff has shown a willingness to play that way against the best teams on its schedule. 

2.  On obvious passing downs this team has really struggled to identify where the pressure is coming from.  Blitzes and especially delayed blitzes have wreaked havoc on this team.  It’s why UC’s third a long numbers are putrid.  When the Bearcats are in obvious passing downs they are susceptible to pressure.  Teams don’t even have to send extra guys, just get creative about how they send them and where they come from.  Hopefully, this is an area that gets sorted out on the break, but it’s one that is troubling. 

 

                The Bearcats need to avoid obvious passing downs and third downs in general.  Trying to get some quick hitting routes on first down early in the game will be key.  Hopefully, that will open up run and play action for the big play.  I think UC needs a bunch of chunk plays to win this game (which is a strength of the offense), but to get those the offensive line will have to hold up enough to get Ridder time.  UC’s skill guys can win against the Bama defense if given the chance. 

The Bearcats need to score in the high twenties to have a realistic shot.  To get there I think they need at least one huge run from Ford (50+ for a TD/setting up a TD).  They need 5-8 chunk passing plays of 20+ yards and they need to avoid turnovers.  They are likely going to have some negative plays on offense, but those can’t be turnovers.  Additionally, a special teams play or 2 could be key to taking some pressure off the offense.  This team has been great blocking kicks and mostly good in the return/coverage game.  As for field goal kicking, they aren’t winning this game with field goals.

 

Final Thoughts

 

We’ve heard “biggest game in Bearcat football history” many times this year.  This really is it.  And it’s probably a house money game.  This is a game Bama wins convincingly all the time.  Nobody expects the Bearcats to win, but they can because he Bearcats have some potentially favorable matchups such as:

 

1.  Bearcat defensive backs v. Bama Receivers

2.  Bearcat pressure packages v. Bama offensive line

3.  Bearcat receivers/tight ends v. Bama secondary

 

Those matchups give the Bearcats a great chance to win the game if they can prevent Young from extending plays, protect Ridder long enough to make a few plays of their own and be clean in the turnover department.  Yea, the most likely scenario is a Bama win, but Cincinnati’s has a unique combination of talent and experience that makes me dream and see a path toward the National Championship game in Indy two weeks from tonight.

 

Go Bearcats!