Bearcats Closing In On NCAA Tournament Bid

We have reached the time of year where it is time to talk NCAA tournament hopes. The Bearcats have put themselves in position to earn an NCAA bid. To do this they must take care of business down the stretch. A 2-2 finish would look awfully good for Cincinnati, especially in a Big East conference that has been particularly good this year compared to the rest of college basketball. I am not as confident that 1-3 will get it done, because of the committee's history of penalizing teams that have poor non-conference strength of schedules. Lets start off by looking at what UC has going for them..

3-6 vs. RPI top 25

Zero losses to anyone outside of RPI top 25

3-0 vs. RPI 50-100

Dominating home win over a Xavier team that is likely to get a good NCAA seed.

Road win over a St Johns team that looks better by the day

Home win over what will be a highly seeded Louisville team.

Looking at that resume Cincinnati has shown that 1. They can beat NCAA tournament caliber teams (very good tournament teams at that) and 2. They can take care of business in games they should win. 3. At 5-4 their road/neutral record is at the very least solid

Here is what will weigh on the Bearcats:

9 of their wins are against teams 214 and below in the RPI.

Non-conference SOS in the near 300

That non-conference SOS has been an anchor all season long. With a 1-3 finish I firmly believe it will take two Big East tournament wins to feel safe (I say two because the first game will be a game that losing would look very bad and the second would be one where the Bearcats could actually get a valuable win over a really good team). The shame of the whole thing is had UC scheduled more ambitiously there is a good chance they would be playing for a chance at a very good seed right now. Many bring up financial issues which is fair enough, but I think there is a cost/benefit thought process that does not get addressed. Had UC played mediocre teams instead of dreadfully bad teams they'd likely have about the same record, but would be well higher in the RPI. Is saving the expense on the front end (IE scheduling cheaper teams) worth the benefits you lose on the back end (better tournament position whether its from off the bubble to in or getting a better seed... the results of both are increased interest and exposure for the team that leads to more revenue). My own opinion is it is short sighted to make your schedule based on front end costs without factoring in the back end benefits.

In all honestly I think UC is one of the best 35 teams in the country. I think they are likely one of the best 25 teams in the country. I think their resume is undervalued nationally because of the number of dreadful teams they played to the point that the Bearcats do not get enough credit for the way they dominated Xavier, their big win at St Johns or taking care of Louisville at home. They do not get enough credit for not losing to any team outside of the RPI top 25. That said the Bearcats like every other team in the country know how the system works. They know what the committee values and they know that building up wins on the backs of bad teams is something that in the long run could be detrimental. If the Bearcats miss the tournament at this point it will be no ones fault but their own.

Many fans look at Xavier and wonder how anyone could put them ahead of Cincinnati. I myself believe that Cincinnati is a better team than Xavier and I think the evidence that is out their suggests it as well. The fact is though that Xavier has a better NCAA tournament resume when you look at the way the committee has traditionally evaluated tournament teams. Xavier has only played 4 games against teams seeded under 200 in the RPI while UC played 9. That factor alone is where the major difference in their resumes comes from. Both teams have the same record. Both have the same number of top 50 RPI wins. They even have about the same number of RPI top 100 wins (Xavier has 7, Cincinnati has 6). Now the Bearcats have beaten better teams (3 RPI top 25 vs. 0) and their losses came against better teams (All six to RPI top 25), and ultimately the difference between playing bad teams and really bad teams maybe should not matter as much as it does, but that is a reality that has always been known when the committee looks at NCAA candidates. It is up to the university to schedule accordingly and give themselves a chance to get the best possible evaluation from the committee. Xavier did a great job of that, Cincinnati did not.

In the end it might not matter that much. As it stands UC has some work to do, but they are coming off a week in which they played some of their best basketball of the season. Throwing out the eight minute stretch to end regulation against Providence the Bearcats looked like a really good basketball team. Offensively they worked the ball better than I have seen them most of the season and did not settle for the same forced threes they have when the offense has struggled (though Thomas still decided he needed to take his one three per game). They got contributions from guys across the board from Gates, to Kilpatrick, to Wright, and to Dixon. Their defense has been a great strength all year, but against Louisville it was absolutely suffocating. It was quite honestly one of the best defensive performances by any team this year. If the Bearcats continue this level of play I am confident they'll get at least 2 more wins and could conceivably make a run in the conference tournament. They could still not only make the tournament but end up with a decent seed.

It will always bug me that UC did not give themselves the opportunity to really put together the best possible body of work, because I definitely think this team is worthy of more than being the bubble team where people keep harping on their pathetic non-conference schedule. I think their non-conference scheduling is likely to cost UC two seed lines come selection Sunday. That hurts, it irks me, but the positive news is they still have every chance to play themselves into the tournament and I think it very likely that they will.

In my opinion last week was the Bearcats' best and most significant week of the year. It was definitely the most optimistic I have been after watching them. If they build on that and finish the way they are capable of we will all be watching meaningful basketball in March for the first time in the years. Now that is something all Bearcat fans can get behind.

PDoc Cannot Let Huggs v Zimph Go

The Cincinnati vs. West Virginia game is here again and once again Paul Daugherty has a message for all of you Bearcat fans who still love Bob Huggins and have stopped supporting the Bearcats because of the way he was dismissed from the program... build a bridge and get the fuck over it. Sadly Pdoc seems to not want to take his own advice.

You go to UC message boards and you do not see fans rehashing the Huggins dismissal. I talk to my Bearcat fan friends these days and none of the talk is on Nancy Zimpher (may she get what is coming to her some day) or the Huggins dismissal, but on topics related to the basketball team. They talk about how UC is playing, on whether UC can make the tournament, on the horrid non-conference strength of schedule, on the ridiculously strong Big East schedule, on avoiding a late season collapse, on the inconsistency of half court offense, the huge shot made by Yancy Gates against St Johns, the tremendous defensive effort night in and night out...the list goes on and on, but these are the topics among UC fans.

In the spirit of Pdoc's hypocrisy and in honor of the great writers who once graced firejoemorgan.com here are my thoughts on Daugherty's latest printed atrocity.

Doc: Why the Bob Huggins Nostalgia?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110128/COL03/399990172/Doc-Why-the-Huggins-nostalgia

By Paul Daugherty • pdaugherty@enquirer.com • January 28, 2011

Mick Cronin, bless him, did the proper fawning again. His knees must ache from all that genuflecting. UC wouldn’t be in the Big East without Bob Huggins, according to the Bearcats basketball coach. Football and academics played a big role, too, but OK. We get it Pdoc... Huggins was not the ONLY reason UC was asked to join the Big East. Bob Goin being incredibly proactive in seeking membership and pushing forward varsity village was also instrumental, but Mick is not saying anything we do not already know when crediting Huggins. UC did not have a special program in any other sports and though I think UC academics have long been undervalued nationally they were not bringing new credibility to the Big East with their academics. Yea they had to show the conference these areas were strengths, but the selling point for the Bearcat program was its top 15 basketball program.

Meantime, fans who wouldn’t walk across the yard to attend the Rutgers game Wednesday night (attendance: 6,400 or so) will sell out Fifth Third Arena Saturday (13,176), to watch the University of Huggs, even as the game is no more vital to the Bearcats’ tournament interests. Yes, Huggins coming back is and will always be a big deal to Bearcat fans. He earned that much with both his success and loyalty to the Bearcat program. Still Rutgers and a West Virginia team that was in the final four and won the Big East tournament last season is not an apples to apples comparison. Here is a quick list of reasons this game would be a much bigger sell (not even factoring in Huggins).

1. WVU was a final four team last year while Rutgers was sitting at home

2. WVU is a tournament team nearly every year. When was the last time Rutgers made the NCAA tournament? Anyone?

3. Rutgers game was 9 PM on a weeknight, WVU game is 8 PM on a Saturday

4. WVU is a top 20 team according to the RPI and either the 3^rd or 4^th best team that will come to the Shoe this year.

I would argue that getting another top 25 RPI win is far more vital to UC's tournament interests than beating Rutgers...so not only is Doc's inept comparison between the WVU game and the Rutgers game asinine to begin with his point of their relevance to UC's tournament interests is wrong.

Two years ago, UC feted Huggins in a brief pregame ceremony. One object was to honor a guy who meant a lot to a lot of people around here, in the basketball program and elsewhere. He richly deserved the recognition.

The bigger motive was to try, please God, to close a book. It was the retirement party that would allow everyone to move on. It didn’t work. At least not among the faithful. (Or faithless, depending on your side of the fence.) I do not necessarily buy that this was the bigger motive though I am sure giving Bearcat fans a deserved sense of closure with a coach who they invested so much in was a huge factor (and rightfully so). As to it not working... by what standard Doc? I was thankful I was able to give Huggs the standing ovation before the game he so richly deserved and yet at tipoff every Bearcat fan was cheering heartily for the University of Cincinnati. After the win UC was in prime position to get a tournament bid and I would argue if the complete collapse had not occurred down the stretch you may have seen attendance start to build sooner rather than later.

Huggins has moved on. He put West Virginia in the Final Four last year. Do you think he sits in his Morgantown mansion pining for Clifton? He’s somebody else’s hero now. Fair enough and Bearcat fans have not been pining for Huggins, what they have been pining for is NCAA tournament basketball.

He reminisces when asked. He harbors some bitterness for how the breakup was handled. He doesn’t carry a torch for his old job. If he did, he couldn’t do his new one.

Nancy Zimpher has moved on. Do you believe Zimpher – who made UC a better school, by the way – is concerned with what you think about her now? It’s possible she wrings her hands each night as she tucks herself in, grieving over the tickets not sold because of festering local anger. But I kind of doubt it.

Please find a new Cruella. My favorite part of the Doc bullshit article we get every year is the way he tries to bate Bearcat fans and make them feel guilty for hating Zimpher. Doc always sided with Zimpher in the Huggs/Zim saga and part of the reason I think he brings this up every year just to throw it into UC fans faces.

The Huggs-vs.-Zim show has closed, ladies and gentlemen. Have a safe ride home. Tip your bartenders and waitresses. Doc you're several years late on this. The Huggs v Zim show closed in 2005 and yet for some reason you find the need to rehash it every God damn year. Follow your own advice. Tip your bartenders and waitresses? Doc you've been beating this dead horse for 6 years now...nearly everyone is over it but you.

Why all this ongoing, destructive nostalgia? The only destructive nostalgia is the drivel you and the other talking heads try to sell us every year at this time.

You still don’t go to UC basketball games because of what happened six years ago? Really? This seems like as good a time as any to talk about attendance. Yes many long time UC fans dropped their tickets to UC basketball after the Huggins dismissal. They were upset with how the program was being run, they were upset that not only did the administration ditch a beloved coach, but that it gave the UC basketball program a self imposed death penalty.

The irony is this is the exact attitude that Daugherty wants Bengals fans to use. He asks them to protest with their pocket books and to not buy a failing product. Hell, he wrote as much in his January 15 column about being addicted to the Bengals. http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20110115/COL03/301150016/ To add to the irony the Bengals have made the playoffs twice in the five year span since Huggins was fired. The Bearcats have not been to the tournament.

Doc wants you to believe that attendance is bad because Bearcat fans cannot get over the Huggins firing. That is good for his narrative. It allows him to write the same bullcrap article every year in some form or another. The reason attendance is not back at UC is very simple.

1. UC has not been to the NCAA tournament in five years.

2. UC played an absolutely abysmal non-conference schedule with very few appealing games

3. The economy has been poor and fans are more selective with their dollars

4. Even with success it takes time to build back the fan base. Yes UC is 18-3 right now and ideally more fans would be attending games, but the fact is many UC fans have not been following the program as they did when UC was making the tournament every year. As a result they do not have the attachment to the players, staff and program that was there when it was successful. Huggins did not build the program overnight...the fans did not immediately sell out night after night (and he had the luxury of a brand new arena).

   The fact is that if the Bearcats continue to win, if they finish strong this season (which they have not done when in very good position the last two years) that will start really bringing the fans back. When the program gets back to winning consistently the fans will come.

   You’re going Saturday, because of the. . . visiting coach? No doubt Huggins is part of the draw, but we are also going to see a top 20 RPI team who made the final four last year. We are going to hopefully see a good game and see the Bearcats get another quality win.
   
   How self defeating. How utterly useless, in a very Cincinnati way. Yes how awful that the Bearcats sell out what ultimately is a huge game in the Big East.
   
   We live in our rearview mirrors here, sometimes. We glorify our past. Things are never as good as they were in 1975. P-e-e-e-te!! Way to get a nonsense Pete Rose reference in the article which in this context is a terrible analogy. I guess the point you are trying to make is that both Rose and Huggins are flawed heroes. Isn't everyone?

The Way We’ve Always Done It rules the day. If you don’t like it here – and why on earth wouldn’t you? -- there’s the door. I’ve lived here 22 years and I’ve never understood our thinking. I only understand how it has affected our community. We’re not better for all the past-clinging. It keeps us from being as good as we can be. WTF is he talking about? “If you don't like it here there is the door.” Who are we showing the door? Are you going all the way back to the NZ references? Respecting the past and being loyal to those who were loyal to you and busted their ass for your school is not clinging to the past. It is being a fan. No one would ever confuse you with a Bearcat fan so maybe it is impossible for you to understand.

How can we move on when we’re always looking back? Some of us can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Do you cruise the highway staring at your rearview mirror? No, but I damn sure do use my rearview mirror...nevermind...why am I getting sucked into nonsensical analogy after nonsensical analogy?

Part of the reason Fifth Third Arena’s upper bowl looks like the mouth on a Halloween pumpkin is because the basketball team hasn’t won enough. Understood. Ok, because the first half of your article makes it seem like you do not understand. Glad to see you are not completely ignorant. This is the essence of why UC attendance has suffered. Glad to see Doc is finally ready to tackle the real issue. Part of it is because we choose to live in the rearview mirror. That’s not fair. Worse, it’s corrosive. Wait that's it? That's all the time we get on the issue that actually drives attendance for nearly every program across the country. One minor acknowledge and immediately Doc gets back to focusing on the minor issue of people liking Huggs. I'm sure there is a tiny percentage where Doc's point may be true, but if the team wins consistently, if Cronin turns UC into the perennial top 15 program they were under Huggins...this minority will be impossibly hard to find.

This is no shot at Huggins. He deserves the respect we’ve afforded him. But enough is enough. It isn’t 1975, or 1992. Johnny Bench is 61 years old, Nick Van Exel is retired from the NBA. Huggins isn’t coming back. Somehow, the Final Four has survived UC’s 19-year absence. No one is arguing this point Doc. Yes the date is January 28, 2010 (at least at the time I am writing this).

“It is Huggins who’s selling (Saturday’s) game out,’’ says UC archivist Kevin Grace. Grace is a student of city history, sports and otherwise. He doesn’t agree that we spend excessive time looking behind, but acknowledges it’s a reason for Huggins’ ongoing hold on the local affections. “He doesn’t have a good team, but he does have a larger than life personality. People are going because Huggins is Huggins.’’ I'm glad we got Grace's basketball insight to tell us WVU is not a good team (top 20 RPI mind you, but not a good team), but what Doc neatly glosses over here is the fact that the history “expert” Doc brings in to lend credence to his article about Cincinnati spending an excessive amount of time looking backwards DISAGREES with Doc's assertion that Cincinnati spends an excessive amount of time looking backwards. Way to lend credence to your position Doc.

Grace believes that a return to the NCAA tournament is all UC needs for its fans to cease romanticizing the past. “Let’s face it, the Big East is professional sports,’’ Grace says. “Pro sports fans want a winner.’’ Nail on the head...winning is how we get the fans back to the Shoe (and you know a better economy would help as well).

I’d suggest Cronin and his group of quasi-amateurs could win it all, and there would still be a large local voice mumbling about the way Zimpher dealt with Huggins. That local voice mumbling would be none other than Paul Daugherty. It’s how we are around here. You are a walking, hypocritical testament to that.

We’re the same people who, on the day Great American Ball Park opened, booed Carl Lindner and cheered Marge Schott. We still slide headfirst in support of Pete Rose. And we still love Huggs, which would be OK if it didn’t come at the expense of the progress happening now in the home offices of Fifth Third Arena. Well good... it is OK because loving Huggs does not affect the progress down at Fifth Third Arena. It does not in the least.

“It doesn’t reflect the community at large,’’ Kevin Grace insists. I wonder how many people Doc tried to find that would agree with his take before he finally settled on someone who seemed to believe the complete opposite. Great reporting as always Doc.

Man, I hope not. Somehow I do not quite buy this... I really cannot wait to read Huggs/zimph part 6 from you this time next year.

Xavier At the Shoe

In honor of tonight's shootout, a little Casey at the Bat style tribute.

The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Xavier five that day

The Bearcats stood 14-0, a better team than they

And then when Lyons nervously cried and Freese did the same

The team just stared in the lockerroom, frightened, as they waited for the game

They left the lockerroom as one, determined to give their best

As they marched onward to the court to begin their impossible test

Yet somehow they won the tipoff and jumped out to lead

At least for a little moment they could fight off the urge to conceed

But then the mighty Gates did force his way into the lane

and stuffed through a shattering dunk right over top of McClain

Then Rashad Bishop stroked a three and Davis then drained two

The Bearcats were now in business; there was nothin X could do

Then from 13,000 throats and more there rose a lusty yell

It shot throughout the rafters and the noise began to swell

It echoed at the Xavier bench and their players did go lame

For the Bearcats, the mighty Bearcats were taking control of the game

There was an ease in the Bearcats rhythm as they completely owned the court

Such pride in their performance as they dominated this sport

And when responding to the cheers they upped their game some more

Before you knew it another run, this one sixteen to four

Then the thug Tu Hallow threw a punch and earned himself a T

And in that classless moment the Cats stood tall, just letting it be

And when that final whistle blew the Bearcats won the day

15 and 0, now on they go...to dominate Big East play

Oh somewhere in this favored city the stars are shining bright

UC's band is playing somewhere, UC's fans hearts are light

The UC players now are laughing, and the muskies just lay and pout

Because there is no joy in Norwood... little Xavier just got BLOWN OUT.

Ranking My Fiction Reads- 2010

In 2010 I started and finished 20 fiction Novels totaling approximately 11,000 pages. I started a 21st called The Terror by Dan Simmons, which I am currently reading and therefore won't include it on this years list. I divided my rankings into 4 tiers ranging from excellent to alright (thankfully only one book fit into the alright tier). By in large this list is in order of how I would rank the books, however, I often go back and forth on which books within each tier I liked more. Anyways here is how I would rank the fiction I read this year.

Tier 1 (Excellent)
1.Perdido Street Station - Easily the most original and well written book I read this year. The Slake Moths are absolutely terrifying and the introductory ride into New Crobuzon is breathtaking. China Mieville has a way with words like few authors do. He creates incredibly quirky and interesting species and some ridiculously cool ideas (The Weaver was amazing). The first couple parts are slow, but always fascinating and well written. The rest of the book is just awesome.

2.Snow Crash - Though a bit dated, Snow Crash is about as fun as a novel can get. From the opening description of the "Deliverator," to the pure awesomeness that is Y.T. this novel remains fun throughout. There is a rather large info dump in the middle which at times can get a bit tedious, but despite that Neal Stephenson delivers with a novel that is just pure entertainment.

3.The Lies of Locke Lamora- Scott Lynch's first in the Republic of Thieves series is both an original take on fantasy and a fun caper tale. The city of Camorr and the underworld that thrives there really comes alive and for a series novel it has a very satisfactory, self contained ending.

4.The Name of the Rose- A big credit to Eco with this book for as long as the book was and as many names and languages as it had I thought it was actually a fairly quick read. The language is top notch throughout, the descriptions are great, the tension is ever present and the history woven in is virtually unmatched in anything I have read.

5.A Fire Upon The Deep- The scope of this novel is nothing short of grand. Vinge takes many intriguing ideas, creates multiple fascinating alien races and gives us a tale that is epic in scope and fascinating to read. There are several amazing actions sequences that will keep you rivited throughout.

6.A Deepness in the Sky- Deepness does not quite have the epic scope of A Fire Upon the Deep, but it's a fascinating tale of the conflict among two groups of human space travelers centered around their varying desires of how to extract resources from the first known alien race. The idea of mindrot is very cool as is the moral dilemma it ends up causing for our protagonist. The alien race to me was very believable and though I found myself more interested in the human plot I thought the way they blended together worked well.

Tier 2 (Great reads, not quite up to level of Tier 1)
7.A Look to Windward- Banks is one of my favorite current writers, largely because of the brilliant action sequences he write, but with this story he takes a step back from much of the action (though we get a few cool scenes) to tell a tale of revenge. Slower paced than earlier Banks Culture novels, but just as thought provoking.

8.The Scar- The Scar was actually a better paced book than Perdido Street Station and had many of the great features that made Perdido so special (Many quirky species, incredibly cool creations and ideas, great visual depictions and beautifully written passages). Where I think it fell short was the tension never seemed as real and there was no entity to match The Weaver.

9.Old Man's War- Military Scifi to the core. This book flowed really well. It was a quick read, but entertaining throughout. The action scenes were intense and there was a surprising amount of humor from Scalza as well.

10.Red Seas Under Red Skies- The second in Lynch's Republic of Thieves series I did not find this quite as good. I liked the action in Camorr better than the action in this book. Still the heist scenes are very cool and the action on the high seas can be fun as well. Really anxious to see where he goes moving forward.

11.To Green Angel Tower Part 1- The first of the two part finally to Tad Williams' Memory, Sorrow, and Thorn series I thought this was actually slightly better than the conclusion. Williams finally got to a point where all his plots were intriguing and moving at a good pace.

12.To Green Angel Tower Part 2- The conclusion to Memory, Sorrow and Thorn and a very satisfactory end at that. I thought some of the travel scenes dragged a bit (as they tend to in fantasy), but I thought the end was very cool. The time Williams took to develop the characters and the world early in the series which often seamed excessive really worked to his benefit in the conclusion.

13.Against a Dark Background- This story is just a series of amazing action sequences which no one write better than Banks. I found Sharrow to be a fun protagonist and much of her back story helped develop the emotional gravity of the book. Still I though the scope really was not big enough for me to be as invested in the book. Definitely a fun read, just not an excellent read.

14.The Hunger Games- Credit Collins for being able to get me emotionally invested in characters I barely knew very early on in her novel. Though often predictable and convenient in it's solutions to problems that seem coming I thought The Hunger Games was paced incredibly well and fun throughout. I also felt that even the predictable and convenient parts of the story worked in the world Collins created. I'm anxious to read the last two novels in the series.

15.Cat's Cradle- Vonnegut always seems to deliver with his funny, dark wit. I really loved the idea of Bokononism and how the narrator (John/Jonah) tied everything that happened throughout the book to the various teachings of Bokononism. I thought it was very telling that the destruction that comes in this book did not come from evil or maliciousness, but from wreckless indifference and wreckless self action. Not as good as the Slaughterhouse Five, but typical Vonnegut in that it was humorous and dark with themes that strike you in a very real way.

Tier 4 (Good reads)
16.Storm Front- This first in Butcher's Dresden series was a very quick read and interesting blend of detective novel and urban fantasy. It was self contained and everything tied together nicely at the end. The novel was nothing special but showed the makings of a potentially fun series.

17.The Dragonbone Chair- The first of Williams' Memory, Sorrow and Thorn series. I thought the biggest fault with this book is the setup took to long and we were 250 pages in before anything happened. The travel scenes were also hit or miss. To its credit though the White Fox's were really cool and the end was wonderfully written. A good, though flawed book.

18.And Another Thing- Colfer does an admiral job of continuing The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy series. And Another Thing certainly has a different feel than the other Hitchhikers books, but it was still a fun read. In fact I'd argue it was as good as book 5 and much better than book 4 (which just didn't do it for me). Still it falls well short of the brilliance that defined the original three Hitchhikers novels.

19.The Stone of Farewell- Book 2 of Memory, Sorrow and Thorn. This flowed better than book 1, but I thought was the weakest overall of the four. To me not enough happened...there were not enough really cool scenes that we got at the end of the first novel and throughout To Green Angel Tower. That said there was some cool stuff in the Sithi city and the duel on the plains with the Thrithlings was worthwhile. Another good book that is ultimately flawed.

Tier 4 (Eh... book)
20.Good Omens- Really this book was my only disappointment in reading this year. Having loved American Gods I expected much more from this story. I did not find it particularly funny, or the conclusion particularly satisfactory. There are some alright moments, but for a book that is trying to be humorous at the expense of other aspects I just do not think it worked. Really it is the only book I read this year that I would not recommend to others.

Lack of Job Growth Kills Democrats

It is easy to forget what an economic mess the democrats walked into just two years ago. If nothing else Tuesday night was a reminder that even with near disasterous collapse brought on before the Democrats took charge Americans have no patience when their jobs are in jeopardy. In October of 2007 the Dow Jones was at 13930.01. From there it essentially fell at a consistently steep rate until February of 2009 (when it reached 7062.93). This is significant because this is when the democrats implemented their economic policy. Since that day the Dow Jones has steady risen to 11188.72. Our financial institutions were saved and they have paid back every penny borrowed in the Obama bailout (only money they did not return was from the Bush bailout since he did not require them to pay it back). GM was saved and has also paid back the money they were given in the bailout.

In February of 2008 the unemployment rate in this country was 4.8 %, before Obama even took office the unemployment rate had moved up to 8 percent. So in less than a year the unemployment rate had gone up 3.2%. The unemployment rate reached nearly 9% before Obama and the democrats passed their economic policy. The democrats economic policy slowed down the growth in unemployment SIGNIFICANTLY. And after bottoming out at 10.1 in October of 2009 the rate has slowly started to move back down towards 9.6%.

The ironic thing is that had the republican economic policies that caused this MASSIVE recession not been so disastrous the democrats probably would have done better in this election. As it is, though we have seen massive improvements in the trends for both the dow jones and unemployment from what the Democrats inherited, though Americans still are dealing with consequences of those inherited policies. It was always going to take more than two years for the economy to recover from the incredible plummet we saw (which did not slow down until Obama's economic policy was implemented).

Americans vote with their pocket books so often and since there has not been a strong recovery in jobs to match the strong recovery in the market they are not happy. Though the majority of the deficit has actually come from lessened tax revenue due to recession, Americans see the Democrats spending money on something like Health Care when so many are still unemployed at it rubs them the wrong way. Tonight was inevitable for the democrats and though I think if they were as good at talking points as republicans they could have done better the fact was there was no way the democrats could have taken an economy that had been plummeting in the year before they implemented their policies and created a complete recovery.

It's funny to listen to the Obama administration be called Partisan. From day one Obama came in and tried to work with republicans. Even gave them certain things they wanted with the stimulus and bailout packages...republican leadership originally was willing to work with him on some of it and John Boehner made the calculated political move to obstruct on everything and ordered republican leadership to follow suit. It worked in this election because though the dow jones has recovered incredibly well from the year and a half plummet it was on prior to the democrats taking action, jobs have not comeback yet and Americans vote with their wallets.

Anyone remember John Boehner crying on the house floor trying to get support for Bush's tarp bailout (which was poorly structured and didn't require anything to be paid back)? Well when the banks still looked on the verge of collapse and Obama tried to get republican support for tarp (this time structured in a way that required it to be paid back) Boehner chose obstruction. In the end the Banks recovered after tarp was passed and repaid the money to the federal government. It was good legislation. It probably saved the financial institutions of this country. And the republicans decided to play politics with it.

That playing politics paid off for the last year because it was going to take more than 2 years to recover from the disasterous economic plummet that came prior to the Obama administration taking over, but now they'll actually have to offer something. They'll actually have to be more than just obstructionist. In the end that's probably a blessing for the democrats (though loosing that many seats was not the ideal way for it to happen).

Listening to republicans talk jobs is almost comical. In the year before Obama implemented his economic policy unemployment rose for 4.8 % to 9%. Unemployment rose under Obama to just over 10 percent and right now unemployment sits at 9.6%...clearly Obama has slowed down the rate of unemployment decline and we have scene a slow trend towards rising employment. The republicans railed against the bailout of General Motors, but how many more jobs would have been lost had this company collapsed? Instead the democrats designed a plan that allowed General Motors to continue to function and they have already paid back the government for the bailout money. They saved American jobs and republicans were against saving those jobs.

In the end jobs lagged too far behind the overall economic recovery and the democrats suffered this year at the ballot. It is going to take a strong recovery of jobs to go along with the dow jones for the Democrats to hold serve next time around. They still have the Presidency, they still have the Senate. Health Care will not be repealed. Democrats will still set the agenda and they still have two years to show that their economic policies saved this country from a decline that could have been way worse. And this time they will have a republican party that will have to do far more than obstruct. When you have no power you can play the obstructionist. You can act like your plans are not getting out of committee, you can pretend the other side is not trying to work with you...now the republicans actually have to bring something to the table. In the end I think we'll see job recovery and I think Obama will be able to make the economic argument in two years that their policies lead to significant recovery. I think he'll hold the presidency and hold the senate. They may not be able to take back the house so quickly, but having an opposition party that has to actually try to govern too may not be such a bad thing.

Thoughts on Miami Game, Louisville Game, and Bearcats heading into Conference Play

So the Bearcats head into Big East play at a disappointing 2-3. They in fact are 0-3 in their games against meaningful competition blowing a 14-0 lead at Fresno State to start the year, getting beat all over the field by NC State, and beating themselves with bad turnovers against the Oklahoma Sooners. Yet is is strange to think I am feeling very good about the chances for UC to win a third straight conference title as they head into Big East play.

Many of us fans probably underestimated the adjustment period the offense would have to make. Against Fresno State, Indiana State and NC State the Bearcats looked confused in getting to the line. Players seemed to not be sure where to line up, lineman did not know who to block and Collaros seemed so concerned with getting us into what we were doing that he never seemed to read where and when teams would send pressure from. Basically it looked like the Bearcats were trying to implement a completely knew offensive system (and they were).

Against NC State as bad as they looked at times they seemed to start to get better...they would look more confident getting into their sets, though ultimately make a mistake that would kill drives. Still they moved the ball and were getting into their offense much more quickly. It was the Oklahoma game where we finally got to see a football team that looked comfortable. They got into their sets quickly, they ran it effectively, threw it effectively and played with the kind of tempo we have come to expect. Were it not for a 4 turnovers that could have been the signature non-conference win Bearcat fans have been waiting for.

As it stands the Bearcats came back this Saturday night and did what they should have done...manhandled a vastly inferior Miami Redhawks football team. So though the start to the season leaves something to be desired it seems the talent is finally showing through for UC. The young defense has shown flashes that it can be really good at times. I am sure there will be struggles, but I like the direction the defense is heading in. And the offense is in position to do what we thought they should do coming into the season...be one of the premier offenses in the country.

Miami Rivalry:
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Before I talk some Louisville and get into the conference season I have a few thoughts on the Miami rivalry. A few years ago Brian Kelly suggested that UC would need to investigate whether or not it was in UC's interest to continue playing Miami as the series is presently constructed. At times there was some outrage over this particularly from Miami fans and I think BK largely said it to get UC fans to start thinking of UC as a Big Time program. If nothing else BK was always a salesman. Still there is plenty of truth in what he said.

Tim Adams covered this more in depth than I will in a really good article over at Bearcatlair.com, but here are my basic thoughts on the Miami series. As it is presently constructed the game just does not make a whole lot of sense for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have won the last 5 games by an average of more than 4 touchdowns, but whatever, that kind of thing happens... hell Miami ran off a few in a row not too long before that. I jokingly said it is not much of a rivalry when you are pulling your starters up 45-3 in the second quarter, but what struck me even more than that was the general apathy for the game from the Miami fan base. At Nippert stadium could you fine more than 30 people wearing Redhawk colors, because it was a struggle for me?

If it is to be a meaningful rivalry by any standard then it seems to me there would be more interest from a University with plenty of alumni in the greater Cincinnati area. The fact of the matter is UC loses money to drive up and play Miami in Oxford every other year. Last year there were around 10,000 Bearcat fans who made the trip North, so I can understand Miami wanting to get a home game every other year. Those 10,000 Bearcat fans give a nice boost to Miami attendence (a constant struggle for them) and bring in a significant amount of additional revenue to the school. UC does not need a game with Miami at Nippert to bring the additional revenue to the school. UC is going to get a near sellout at this point regardless of who comes into Nippert. The benefit to playing the game is obvious to Miami, but not so much to Cincinnati.

Now I want to make it clear. I want to continue to play the game. Hell, I would love to beat them every year. The issue becomes what kind of arrangement would make it beneficial for UC to continue playing it. There was a time when every game between the two schools was played in Cincinnati. I could see that working out, but at that point there is really no reason for Miami to want to play it. I think the logical solutions are either 1. giving UC some sort of a 2 for 1 deal where two games are played at Nippert for every one at Miami, or 2. Negotiating a deal with Miami for splitting much of the ticket revenue when the game is in Oxford.

UC has 5 non-conference games to fill every year and in my ideal world Miami will be one of those games, but there has to be some value for UC in doing it. I'm fine with making the trip up to Nippert North every other year as long as UC is getting a fair shake out of the deal and as it is now Bearcat fans are basically subsidizing the Miami athletic department for that one game every two years up in Oxford and getting little in return (other than a guarentee win).

Judging by the lack of Miami supporters I have seen at Nippert the past couple of times UC and Miami met it does not seem to me that the rivalry is anything like it once was. There is aparthy towards the game among the fans of our one time rivals. For historical purposes I would love to play the game and I am sure UC and Miami could strike a deal that is more than fair to what both schools bring to the game, but the deal as currently structured is not a good deal for UC. It is a deal that Miami gets a lot more out of than UC and one that needs to be addressed in the coming years.

Preparing for Louisville:
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As one rivalry/trophy game ends another approaches. For the second time this season the Bearcats have a short week to prepare for a football game on the road. Friday night the Bearcats go back to Louisville where they managed to win two years ago, but in general has been a place the Bearcats have struggled. This is a revamped Louisville team that after two years of highly unorganized, bad football are slowly working their way back towards relevance in the Big East. They remind me of Syracuse last season in that I still think at season's end they will be towards the bottom of the conference, but they are not going to be a pushover and will continue to progress throughout the season.

What has impressed me the most about Louisville this season is their ability to withstand adversity. There were a couple of times in the Kenutcky game to start the year that Kentucky could have put Louisville away and yet Louisville fought on making it a good game throughout. Their fight was also evident in their loss to a pretty good Oregon State team. My general point is that this is a game where if UC comes out sloppy or makes mistakes they could easily get beat, but if they play to their top ability they should win by two+ touchdowns.

Louisville's strengths are their running game and their ability to rush the passer. I believe the UC defense should match up well in limiting Louisville's ability to run the football and will force the Cardinals to beat them through the air. Louisville's running back Bilal Powell is 8th nationally with 689 yards rushing and he is getting those yards at a rate of 7.6 per pop. If the Cardinals are able to consistently move the ball on the ground it could be a long day for the Bearcat defense. Louisville's ability to rush the passer is what really worries me most about this game. When the Bearcats looked bad early in the season it was because Fresno State and NC State were absolutely abusing the Bearcat offensive line and wreaking havoc in the backfield. It is an even bigger concern than usual because we do not know yet if Alex Hoffman will play friday night at Louisville. Though the Bearcats have seemingly righted the ship starting with the Oklahoma game it would be nice to see them do it aganst a team as prolific rushing the passer as Louisville.

In the end I believe the ability of the Bearcat offense to break off big plays both running the football and through the air will be the difference. Louisville will be a much stiffer test than Miami last week, but I think by the time the game is done the Bearcats will have a 37 to 20 win.

This is a big three game stretch for the Bearcats in that it gives them a chance to get on a roll in conference play. Louisville, South Florida and Syracuse could very well end up finishing in the last three spots in the Big East this year (though I believe the league seems more wide open than I initially believed). Winning these three games will be critical if UC has asperations on a third straight Big East title. Louisville might be the key game in that stretch seeing that it is a rivalry game and on the road (where the other two games are at home against two teams the Bearcats have owned of late). Winning the next three would put the Bearcats at 3-0 heading into a bye week which would set up the stretch run towards a Big East title. I think the Bearcats are poised to really break through the next three weeks and reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the Big East.

2010 Bearcat Football Preview

How do you top back to back outright Big East Championships? How do you top a 12-0 regular season and a top ten finish? How do you replace a coach who went 34-7 in his three seasons and 4 Bowl games at the University of Cincinnati? These are the questions Bearcat fans and Butch Jones are going to be thinking about heading into 2010.

This has been an incredible run for University of Cincinnati football. On November 28, 2006 the University of Cincinnati Bearcats took the field vs. the #6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Bearcats were sitting at 5-5 on the season. To that point they had been 9-12 over the past two seasons and 28-31 over their past five seasons. The Bearcats went on to beat the #6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights and since they took the field that day are 36-7. Since that day they have been to 4 bowl games, 2 BCS games, had 3 top 20 finishes, won back to back outright Big East Championships, had an undefeated regular season and a top ten finish. This is a run that would have been hard for the most ardent Bearcat fans to see coming and it is a level of success fans now not only want to see continue but are starting to expect.

These are the stakes for the 2010 edition of the University of Cincinnati football team. Anything short of another Big East title will be a disappointment to them and to many fans. None of the past two Bearcat teams have been perfect but they have achieved their success by constantly making plays when the stakes were high late in games. They have achieved their success by finding ways to win games. Make no mistake there is talent across the board, but there are clear holes too and it has been an ability to pick each other up despite their flaws that has been the true brilliance of the Bearcat's run of success.

On Defense:

Last season the Bearcats had to replace ten starters from an experienced defense that had carried the Bearcats at times the prior three seasons. At times they performed very well, particularly early in the seasons. They slowed down Rutgers, they held what turned out to be a very good Oregon State offense to 18 points, they frustrated South Florida in the second half and made life tough for West Virginia for much of that game. The defense was clearly not the strength of the team, but for much of the year they were not a huge liability either. Still there were times, particularly late in the year when the Bearcat defense looked downright dreadful. A defense that was designed not to give up big plays gave up a ton of big plays against both UCONN and Florida. And for much of the first half against Pittsburgh the defense was nonexistent.

The hope from Bearcat fans is that many of the problems the Bearcats had were not just personnel related but also scheme related. The Bearcat defense was a 3-4 and much of the talent probably was not suited for the 3-4. The 3-4 defense also left their smaller linebackers more vulnerable to being blocked by big offensive lineman. So there hopefully is some truth in that, but ultimately the Bearcats issue this year is going to be inexperience and depth.

This year's defense at least in terms of senior leadership is less experienced than last year's. Gone are key senior leaders like Aaron Webster, Andre Revels, Alex Daniels and Curtis Young. The Bearcat 2 deep this year features only 2 seniors and that includes no seniors among the projected starters. On the plus side the Bearcats do returns 6 starters from last season (or at least players who started a significant amount of games last season). Derek Wolfe begins his third season (second as a full time starter) and should be poised for a huge year. Wolfe was forced to be the lone defensive tackle last year in the 3-4 defense and still managed strong numbers with 41 tackles, 5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. The switch back to the 4-3 should free up Wolfe to make more of an impact in the backfield. The Bearcat defensive line as a hole lacks ideal size (outside of Wolfe and Hughes), but have some explosive players who do get into the backfield. I think the defensive line will continue to be very good about getting after the quarterback (something Bearcats teams have done going back to the Minter era), but the major question for the group will be do they hold up against the big, strong offensive lines from teams like Oklahoma, UCONN, Pitt and to a lesser extent Fresno State?

I am hoping that though Walter Stewart is listed as a starting linebacker that Bearcat fans will get to see him line up at end on some passing downs as he is great when attacking the quarterback. To me Walter Stewart is the Bearcat whose progress I am most excited to see this year. I was incredibly impressed with what Stewart was able to do last year filling in for Curtis Young. All indications are that Stewart has had a great off-season. Like much of the defense he will be shifting his role some, specifically for him to an outside linebacker in the 4-3 where his ability to cover and support in run defense will be a factor. I think Walter is a talented guy and should excel, so I am anxious for play to start. The Bearcat linebackers are a bit small as a group particularly on the weak side with Maalik Bomar getting the nod. Still I think this can be a position of strength for the Bearcats as Stewart is incredibly gifted and JK Schaffer has shown very good instincts in his two years as a linebacker for UC. Plus I think moving back the the 4-3 you can get away with having smaller faster linebackers as long as the defensive lineman are disruptive.

The Bearcats are replacing two starters in their secondary, the biggest loss being Aaron Webster who had a great senior season. With two starters returning this is seemingly a reasonably experienced group and yet the 2 deep features 5 sophomores, 2 juniors and a freshman. Drew Frey though is not your ordinary Sophomore. By the time he leaves he will seemingly have been a Bearcat for a decade. Frey and Battle are two relative knowns for the Bearcat defense, so the key to the secondary will be how young players like Reubon Johnson, Camerron Cheatham, Adrian Witty and Chris Williams fair. Getting good play from Wesley Richardson in his first year starting at free safety will be key as well. Overall I think there is some good talent back there and am anxious to see how they perform.

The area of concern that everyone who follows the program closely seems to harp back on when they talk about the 2010 Bearcat defense is finding quality depth. As noted earlier much of the two deep is very young and though the Bearcat defense in general is somewhat undersized the backups are considerably undersized at certain areas. If somehow the Bearcats can get really solid years from the likes of Jordan Stepp, Rob Trigg, Colin Lozier, Obadiah Cheatham and Robby Armstrong than maybe the defense can hold up better throughout the season this year. The thought is that the Bearcats may once again have to win some shootouts this year, if this defense can take a big step forward this season and become not necessarily a strength but at least a positive this could be yet another banner year for Bearcat football.

On Offense:

On the first drive of the season against Rutgers last year the Bearcat offense set the tone for what they would be. The Bearcats went 81 yards in 9 plays taking just over 2 minutes to score. It was play after play for positive yards, in quick succession and they were in the end zone. For much of the year the Bearcats were unstoppable on offense, playing at a breakneck pace with ruthless efficiency. They seemingly scored every time they wanted to and they had weapons all across the field When Tony Pike went down with a broken arm, the offense made some subtle adjustments to their style and Zach Collaros continued the trend of ruthless efficiency.

The 2010 Bearcat offense has the potential to be every bit as good as the 2009 offense, though at times slightly different in their style. The Bearcats will still primary be a shotgun spread offense. They will still come at you with multiple receivers, tight ends and running backs. This season though there seems to be a more a focus on running the football. In fact when I look at what Bearcat offense I expect to see, the West Virginia game sticks out in my mind from last season.

Zach Collaros will begin his first full season running the show. Zach was absolutely brilliant in his 4.5 games last year. He completed 75 percent of his passed throwing for 1434 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also ran for 334 yards and 4 touchdowns giving Butch Jones a duel threat quarterback much like he had at Central Michigan. I know the general consensus has been that it seems unreasonable to expect Zach to be as brilliant as he was in those 4.5 games...but why not? Indeed what is there to make us think he cannot be even better?

Last offseason Zach was splitting the second string reps with two other backup quarterbacks while Tony Pike was being prepared to start. This offseason Zach has been getting the first string reps, he knows he is the quarterback and he is getting to work more and more extensively with the rest of the first team. I have to believe that counts for a whole lot.

Last season the offensive line was a big strength for the Bearcats. Pike and Collaros both had time to throw and when UC ran the ball they almost always ran it effectively. The line also gave up very few sacks despite passing a high percentage of the time. The Bearcats return three starters on the offensive line in Griffin, Kelce, and Hoffman. If the offensive line can continue to be a strong as it was last season this offense should once again have a chance to put up huge numbers. Griffen slides over to Left Tackle to take over for Linkenbach. While Kelce slides back to center to take over for Jurek. Alex Hoffman and Evan Davis will be the guards while CJ Cobb plays right tackle. All these guys were key parts of the offensive line productivity last season. It will be very important to get good production from guys like Hoeey, Martinez and Cuerton. If the offensive line can open holes and protect Collaros that will open up opportunities for the abundance of talent and athleticism the Bearcats have at their skill positions.

With the stated focus on running the ball we can expect Isaiah Pead to have a very big season. Pead averaged a stellar 6.7 yards per carry last season though he only carried the ball 121 times. With the increased workload it may be unrealistic to expect that type of yards per carry (as teams will be more aware of run), but because of all the Bearcats weapons teams really will never have the chance to simply key on Pead. As long as Pead stays healthy I think we can expect to see a 1200-1400 yard season. A couple reasons I don't think Pead will go much over that are that I think we'll see Zach getting some runs on the read option and I expect to see the other running backs get in on the action as well.

Most importantly, though the Bearcats will be more committed to the run this year, I still think they will throw more than they run. In the end this team is at its best when they are putting pressure on teams by getting the ball in the hands of their playmaking wide receivers. That will be just as much the case this season as last season. Despite the loss of Mardy Gilyard the Bearcats may be as good as any team in the country at the skill positions. The Bearcats will look to Vidal Hazelton to take over for Gilyard as the explosive playmaker and will once again be strengthened by Armon Binns (a premier down field threat) and DJ Woods another big time receiver with explosive playmaking ability. Ben Guidugli is back for his senior year after a very good junior campaign and anything the Bearcats get from talented guys like Marcus Barnett and Adrien Robinson is gravy.

It will be very, very difficult for opposing defenses to match up with the depth of talent UC can run at them if Collaros has time to throw the football. If I had to guess I would still bet on UC throwing the ball close to 60 percent of the time when the game is in doubt (now in blowouts we may run more and kill clock) simply because I firmly believe that is where this team has its biggest strength (this is obviously with know inside knowledge, I'm sure those closer to the program may know better). My hope is that this offense can control the ball a bit more, keep the defense fresh and be just as ruthlessly efficient as last years squad.

Special Teams (and intangibles):

And here is where the question of how do you replace Mardy Gilyard comes full circle? How do you replace the three absolutely enormous returns Mardy had to set up touchdowns against Pittsburgh (most notably the one down 21 at the end of the half, but lets not forget the field position he gave them on the game winning drive)? How do you replace a guy who continually did it on the biggest of stages? I have to admit I have never enjoyed watching anyone on any team more than I enjoyed watching Mardy the past couple of years and it all came down to just his unreal ability to do it when it mattered most.

The Bearcats might be better this year at wide receiver, but will they have that hidden something Mardy gave them. In general I am pretty confident in the return game. I think there are a number of guys the Bearcats could put on special teams who would consistently give them great field position and pose a threat to opposing teams. It sounds like that duty is going to fall in the hands of Vidal Hazelton and DJ Woods. Woods we have seen do it in the past, Hazelton is the guy all Bearcat fans are aching to see. I think once again we will see the return game be a huge plus for the Bearcats, but it is hard to imagine it being better without Mardy.

I also expect big things from Jake Rogers who has just gotten better every year for the Bearcats. Jake's powerful leg gives the Bearcats a huge advantage in kickoff coverage and it was an advantage we saw time and time again last season. To me Jake was very impressive last year in that he was asked to punt (all be it not that often) and asked to kick field goals. I have grown in confidence when Jake kicks every year and though I hope he does not have to kick too many field goals I think we will have one of the better kickers in the nation when he does,

Punter to me is an unknown commodity. What I have heard of O'Donnell is he has a huge leg and just has to get his consistency in order (reminds me of Adam Wulfeck in that he could boom a seventy yarder and a 25 yarder on back to back punts). UC has really been good in their punt games the past few seasons first with Huber and then to a lesser extent with Rogers last year.

I think special teams has been one of those things that has really put UC over the top and allowed them to win some of those tossup games that got them to a conference title the past couple of years. Can that continue to be a huge strength? That will go a long way to determining if UC can win a third straight Big East title.

Season Projections:

Saturday, September 4 @ Fresno State- This is a game that really worries me. Fresno State returns their entire offensive line, an offensive line that could potentially give the Bearcats smallish defensive line trouble. I think the shift back to the 4-3 will help the Bearcats deal with them better this year. Fresno State, however, is more than the smash mouth run team we saw last year. They have an experienced, capable quarterback and talent at wide receiver. They will probably score some, but I think the defense holds and their defense has a hard time stopping us. WIN

Saturday, September 11, Indiana State- Nothing to say here... UC will dominate a wretched team. WIN

Thursday, September 16 @ NC State- The good thing about playing Indiana State is that UC can probably start looking at NC State a little early for the short week. NC State will be a big test for UC's secondary. Russell Wilson is one heck of a quarterback and he will put pressure on UC with his feet and his arm. Ultimately I think UC will be able to put enough pressure and score enough to win, but this is another scary game. WIN (But Worries Me)

Saturday, September 25, Oklahoma- A day many of us Bearcat fans have really looked forward to as the Sooners make the return trip to Cincinnati (I know we are planning an all out tailgate and will flag down all OU fans to join us because of the hospitality they showed a couple years ago). Oklahoma has the type of offensive line that could give this defense trouble. Still there is a reason Oklahoma struggled at times last year and I do not know if they are as dominate as they were two seasons ago in Norman. UC will be really up, it will be in Cincinnati... who knows... That said. LEANING TOWARDS LOSS

Saturday, October 9, Miami (OH)- The Bell Stays in Cincinnati... now and forever. WIN

Friday, October 15 @ Louisville- I think this will be a tougher game than last year. It's never easy to go down there and win especially in a rivalry game. That said UC is just a much better team. WIN

Friday, October 22, South Florida- We had their number when Grothe was in charge and frankly I just do not think they are good enough to come up here this year and win. They are going to be vulnerable on defense and not consistent enough on offense. WIN

Saturday, October 30, Syracuse- Our first three games in conference come against what I think will be the bottom three teams in the Big East this season. The schedule makers certainly are giving the Bearcats plenty of time to get their game in order this year, but they are setting up one hell of a difficult finish. WIN

Saturday, November 13 @ West Virginia- The last bye week comes before the start of the four game stretch that will decide the conference. Two years ago Cincinnati went into West Virginia and got the big win they needed to win the conference. This year we get an extra week to prepare and that will be huge (of course WVU gets the extra week as well). WVU returns more starters than any team in the conference and they will be hungry after the last two seasons. I think UC matches up better against the WVU running attack than they do the Pitt/UCONN running attacks. If it was at UC I would favor the Bearcats, but it is on the road... what the hell I still favor the Bearcats. LEANING TOWARDS WIN (barely)

Saturday, November 20, Rutgers- The other team the Bearcats have seemingly owned the past few seasons. I think by this time Rutgers will really be playing good football. Savage will have been the quarterback for nearly two seasons and the defense will be clicking. That said...it is at Nippert and I just do not think Rutgers is coming here and winning (night game please). WIN

Saturday, November 27 @ UCONN- Finally the Bearcats get the chance to avenge their last loss in the Big East and what a game this could end up being. UCONN has the advantage of playing WVU/PITT/UC all at home and will already have played WVU/PITT at this point. We will know then if UCONN has lived up to their hype coming into the season. I think the balance of UCONN's power blocking offensive line and their late found passing game could give UC trouble again this year. Still it is hard to shake the big lead UC had last year. UC will be coming off back to back very tough games. I keep playing this game in my head and have a harder time figuring out the result every time. TOSSUP

Saturday, December 4, Pittsburgh- Could the Big East title come down to a game with Pittsburgh for the third straight season? I would say the odds are are fairly decent of that happening. Pittsburgh could give UC trouble in many of the same ways they gave UC trouble last year, but this year I do not know that Pittsburgh's offensive line will be as good and I my hope is UC will have developed enough depth that their defense will be playing much better by this game. In the end playing at Nippert Stadium at the end of the year, in what I hope will be another prime time Big East game... I have to take the Bearcats. LEANING TOWARDS WIN

Looking back at my projections I have 7 solid wins. I have the NC State game as a win, but it does worry me a bit. I have two games (WVU and Pitt) where I am leaning towards a Bearcat win, one true tossup game against UCONN, and the Oklahoma game where I am leaning towards loss. That puts my range of record anywhere from 7-5 to 12-0 (yeah, unlike last year when I idiotically made 11-1 my best case scenario...never doing that again). In all honesty I have this team losing 2 of those 5 games to finish 10-2... and I have them as the team with the Best chance to win the Big East title. The last three years I have had the Bearcats predicted for 9-3 (2007, dead on), 11-2 (2008, dead on) and 10-2 (2009, two games below actual). Lets hope the trend of me being right or undervaluing the Bearcats continues...because I still want to dream National Championship. All in all very excited for football to begin.

OHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHH... OH OH OH OH...UC!!!

Go Bearcats!