Bracket Projection March 9, 2015

Regular season college basketball is over and it appears UC is a lock for the NCAA tournament.  As we head into the conference tournaments I have UC as an 8 seed, but could see them as high as a 6 if they make the finals of or win the AAC conference tournament.  My projected bracket includes three teams that are already in (Belmont, Costal Carolina and Northern Iowa) and some very close calls at the bubble line.  I have Ohio State lower than most bracket projections, but they have the kind of resume the committee usually penalizes teams for (weak non-conference schedule, few road wins and few top 50 RPI wins).  I think their ability to avoid bad losses gets them in but I don’t think it’s clear.  Most brackets I’ve seen have BYU in, but I still don’t think 3 RPI top 100 wins and only 1 win over a tournament team is enough.  I think they need to win the WCC tournament. 

Top 6 Seeds in Order (1 seed contenders):

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin

Last 8 in, in order (teams that could conceivably still not make it):

Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Colorado State, Davidson, Temple, Old Dominion, Texas

Last 8 out (Teams alive for at large bids): 

Illinois, Tulsa, BYU, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, UCLA, Pitt, Stanford

The Bracket (Predicted Conference Winner in Italics, Conference Champion in Bold):

Midwest

1. Kentucky

16.  Albana / UC Davis

8. Xavier

9. Oklahoma State

4. Notre Dame

13. Belmont

5.  West Virginia

12. Temple / Old Dominion

3.  Iowa State

14. South Dakota State

6. Wichita State

11. Indiana

2. Wisconsin

15. Valparaiso

7. St Johns

10. Oregon

South

1. Duke

16. St Francis

8. Purdue

9. VCU

4. Baylor

13. NC Central

5. Arkansas

12. Louisiana Tech

3. Utah

14. Stephen F. Austin

6. SMU

11.  Ohio State

2. Kansas

15. North Florida

7. Michigan State

10. Georgia

East

1. Virginia

16. Texas Southern / Sacramento State

8. Cincinnati

9. LSU

4. Louisville

13.  Harvard

5. Butler

12. Iona

3. Maryland

14. Bucknell

6. Providence

11. Davidson / Texas

2. Gonzaga

15. William & Mary

7. Iowa

10. NC State

West

1. Villanova

16. Georgia Southern

8. Dayton

9. Boise State

4. Northern Iowa

13. Central Michigan

5. North Carolina

12. Wofford

3. Oklahoma

14. New Mexico State

6. Georgetown

11. Colorado State

2. Arizona

15. Coastal Carolina

7. San Diego State

10. Ole Miss

Bracket Projections as of March 5, 2015

I honestly didn’t move UC up very much after their win at Tulsa, but I think they are now on very solid ground.  The reason I didn’t move them up much is two of the teams I thought of moving UC above both beat UC head to head, one on a neutral site (Ole Miss) and one on UC’s home floor (Xavier).  That won’t matter much if UC’s resume is clearly better than both teams, but right now I don’t know that this is the case.  UC may have a marginally better overall body of work, but it’s close enough that I am still letting head to head come into play.  Here’s the bracket as I see it as of this morning:

Midwest	South	East	West
1. Kentucky	Duke	Virginia	Arizona
2. Wisconsin	Kansas	Villanova	Gonzaga
3. Wichita State	Baylor	Utah	Iowa State
4. Notre Dame	Maryland	North Carolina	Oklahoma
5. Northern Iowa	Louisville	West Virginia	Arkansas
6. Butler	SMU	Providence	Georgetown
7. St Johns	Georgia	Iowa	SD State
8. Oklahoma State	Indiana	VCU	Michigan State
9. Xavier	Dayton	Purdue	Boise State
10. Cincinnati	Ohio State	LSU	Ole Miss
11. Illinois	Colo St / A&M	NC State	Oregon
12.  Temple/ Old D	Louisiana Tech	Iona	Wofford
13.  Murray State	NC Central	Harvard	Central Mich
14.  S. Dakota St	Stephen F. Austin	Bucknell	New Mexico State
15.  Valpo	North Florida	UNCW	High Point
16. Albana / UC Davis	St Francis	Texas S / Sacr St	Georgia Southern

Last Four in: Colorado State, Texas A&M, Temple, Old Dominion

First Five Out:  Texas, Pitt, Tulsa, BYU, Davidson