Morning of Selection Sunday Bracket

1 Seeds                Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, UNC

2 Seeds                Gonzaga, Michigan State, Kentucky, Houston

3 Seeds                LSU, Michigan, Florida State, Purdue

4 Seeds                Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Texas Tech

5 Seeds                Auburn, Villanova, Iowa State, Mississippi State,

6 Seeds                Wisconsin, Marquette, Cincinnati, Buffalo

7 Seeds                Maryland, Nevada, Louisville, Wofford

8 Seeds                Baylor, Iowa, Syracuse, Seton Hall,

9 Seeds                Minnesota, UCF, VCU, Washington

10 Seeds              Arizona State, Ohio State, Utah State,  Florida

11 Seeds              Ole Miss, Oregon, Temple/Oklahoma, St Johns/Belmont

12 Seeds              St Marys, Murray State, Liberty, Davidson

13 Seeds              NM State, Yale, GA State, Old Dominion

14 Seeds              Bradley, Vermont, UC Irvine, NKU

15 Seeds              Montana, Colgate, Northeastern, Iona

16 Seeds              Gardner Webb, Albeline Christian, North Dakota State/Prarie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson/NC Central

Last 5 In:             Ole Miss, Belmont, Temple, St Johns, Oklahoma

Teams Done Playing With a Shot:  TCU, Alabama, Texas, NC State, Indiana, UNCG, Clemson, Creighton, Lipscomb, Furman

Most likely to miss on:

Belmont- I think their resume is just better despite the weaker schedule, but committee has traditionally not been very fair to small conference teams like Belmont.

Team I hope I Miss On (That I Have in):  St Johns- they have no business being in the tournament.  There are several better teams among those I have out.  I just think they have the kind of wins the committee will see as enough, despite all their flaws.

Team I hope I miss on (that I have out):  UNCG- Similar to Belmont, a team that has put up a gaudy record and had the misfortune of being great in that league in a year where Wofford was just better.  They don’t have a loss outside of Q1.  Their wins aren’t what the committee typically values, but they did better against their schedule than most bubble teams would have done.  

I think Duke/Virginia are absolute locks for the first 2 one seeds.  I think Tennessee is a one seed with a win today (and maybe with a loss).  I think UNC is the 4th, but Michigan State can snatch it with a win.  I think my top 8 are the top 8 and will be the 1 and 2 seeds.  I like UC as a 6, could see them as high as a 5 and as low as a 7.  

Hope to have one more bracket posted right before selection show if all goes well.

 

Friday March 15, 2019 Bracket Prediction

1 Seeds                Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Duke

2 Seeds                Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Houston

3 Seeds                LSU, Michigan, Purdue, Florida State

4 Seeds                Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Texas Tech

5 Seeds                Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Marquette

6 Seeds                Villanova, Iowa State, Nevada, Buffalo

7 Seeds                Cincinnati, Maryland,  Louisville, Wofford

8 Seeds                Baylor, Iowa, UCF, Syracuse

9 Seeds                Seton Hall, Minnesota, VCU, Washington

10 Seeds              Arizona State, Temple, Ohio State, Utah State

11 Seeds              Ole Miss, Belmont, St Johns, Oklahoma/Florida

12 Seeds              Alabama/TCU, St Marys, Murray State, Liberty

13 Seeds              NM State, Yale, GA Southern, Old Dominion

14 Seeds              Bradley, Vermont, UC Irvine, NKU

15 Seeds              Montana, Colgate, Northeastern, Iona

16 Seeds              Gardner Webb, Sam Houston St., North Dakota State/Prarie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson/Norfolk State

Last 6 In:              Belmont, St Johns, Oklahoma, TCU, Alabama, Florida

Teams that can possibly play their way in:  Nebraska, Xavier, Memphis

Teams Done Playing With a Shot:  Texas, NC State, Indiana, UNCG, Clemson, Creighton, Lipscomb, Furman

First Bracket Prediction

I just completed my first bracket prediction of the year for you all to enjoy.  As of today my 1 seeds are UVA, UNC, Tennessee and Gonzaga.  Only UVA is set in stone.  The SEC and ACC tournament will tell us a ton and theoretically I could see Michigan State getting there as well.  There is a decent chance any of the last 3 could fall off.  

LSU as a 3 seed was difficult and I think they could still get a 1 seed (if they win the SEC tournament they absolutely will).  Because Houston beat them I just gave Houston the edge.  The 4 and 5 seeds are kind of a jumble, but I think they've mostly separated themselves from the 6 and 7 seeds.  

I have Cincinnati as the second 7 seed right now.  I could see them as a 6 seed depending on how the committee views Iowa State, Nevada, Buffalo and Maryland (all of these teams have resumes that are really a matter of preference, not significantly better than one or the other).  I think UC should be able to play themselves to a 6 seed this week.  I think falling to an 8 seed would take a loss before the finals AND other teams behind them having a good week (such as UCF/Baylor/Iowa).  I don't see them falling below an 8 seed.  

I had a really hard time differentiating between teams at the end of the bracket.  Starting with Temple on down I could see the committee leaving any of those bottom teams out in place of a team like TCU, Creighton, Indiana or even UNCG if anyone on the committee decides to value strength of record.  My assumption in making this bracket is that Clemson holds on against NC State.  If they do I think NC State gets left out because of their dreadful nonconference SOS.  I'm not confident Clemson is in and the teams behind them could certainly pass them even if they are right now.  

1 Seeds                Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Gonzaga

2 Seeds                Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, Houston

3 Seeds                LSU, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue

4 Seeds                Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Florida State, Kansas

5 Seeds                Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Marquette

6 Seeds                Villanova, Iowa State, Nevada, Buffalo

7 Seeds                Maryland, Cincinnati, Louisville, Wofford

8 Seeds                Baylor, Iowa, UCF, Syracuse

9 Seeds                Seton Hall, Minnesota, VCU, Washington

10 Seeds              Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Temple, Ohio State

11 Seeds              Utah State, St Johns, Arizona State, Texas/Clemson,

12 Seeds              Belmont/Florida, St Marys, Murray State, Liberty

13 Seeds              NM State, Yale, GA Southern, Old Dominion

14 Seeds              Bradley, Vermont, UC Irvine, NKU

15 Seeds              Montana, Colgate, Northeastern, Iona

16 Seeds              Gardner Webb, Sam Houston St., North Dakota State/Prarie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson/Norfolk State

Last 6 In:              St Johns, Arizona State, Texas, Belmont, Florida, Clemson

First 6 Out:          TCU, Creighton, Indiana, NC State, UNCG, Alabama

Ranking the Bubble 2019

It's the most wonderful time of the year.  Championship week, followed by the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.  Nothing on the sports calendar is better.  Every year I've done a preview of what the tournament field will look like.  I always start by trying to rank the teams that are on the bubble.  A few teams you won't see here because I think they are definitely in include UCF, Iowa and Syracuse.  What follows is the order I have the bubble today.  It is subject to change and there may be fewer spots if conference tournament upsets occur.  As of today TCU is my last team in.

I am Pretty Confident They Will Make It

Seton Hall- I think they are in and will likely be one of the worst at large teams in if you put stock into predictive metrics.  The bottom line is they have the wins and the Q1/Q2 record to overcome their flaws.  They are 6-7 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2 games.  This is huge for them in comparison to other bubble teams.  When you look at their actual wins it is even more important.  They have a neutral site win over Kentucky and a road win over Maryland to go with home wins over Villanova and Marquette.  They also have road wins over bubble teams Creighton and Xavier, and home wins over bubble teams Butler, St Johns and Creighton.  Of the bubble teams their resume stands out despite only being 62 NET and 59 kenpom. 

Minnesota- I like their resume a little more than Ohio State’s at this point.  They are a similar 3-9 in Q1 games, but 7-3 in Q2 games.  They don’t have a bad loss.  They have a road win against Wisconsin and a Neutral site win over Washington along with the big home win over Purdue.  Another bubble team that sits under .500 in its conference (9-11). 

VCU-  31 NET, 32 kenpom…this should absolutely be a tournament team, BUT there isn’t a lot to their resume and they have a couple bad losses.  I think they should be in if they don’t win the A10 tournament, but they are absolutely the kind of team the committee has kept out in favor of middling p5s.  3-2 against q1 and 3-2 against q2 is helpful despite the lack of opportunities.  Their road win over bubble team Texas and neutral site win over bubble team Temple should be enough to get them over the finish line.  They do have a 1 point neutral court loss to St. Johns.   

Washington-  The Pac 12 is bad.  They’ve been the best team in it.  Only 47 in kenpom, but a decent 38 NET.  2-4 in Q1 games with their wins both coming against non-tournament teams.  8-6 against Q1/Q2.  Their best win probably at Oregon (gross).  The more I look at this the more I think it’s not a tournament resume, but would the Pac 12 champ really be left out? 

Ole Miss- They have faded a bit down the stretch, but probably have enough on the resume to get in.  34 NET, 43 kenpom.  Road wins against Auburn and Mississippi State and the neutral cite win against Baylor looks better and better.  Only 4-10 v. Q1 teams and 7-11 against Q1/Q2, but no bad losses. 

Oklahoma- 40 NET, 36 kenpom.  They are probably a tournament caliber team, but they did only go 7-11 in their conference.  Only 4-10 in Q1 games, but 6-2 in Q2 games, making them 10-12 against Q1/Q2.  A big issue is they did almost all of their damage at home.  Their neutral site win against Florida is their only Q1 win away from home (they have 2 road Q2 wins and 1 neutral Q2 win).  They also have zero bad losses and did not play a single Q4 team among the games on their schedule.  I think they’ll be rewarded for their 18 SOS despite being a team that hasn’t shown it can win tournament caliber games outside of Norman. 

Flawed Resume that I Think Will Hold on (But I could be wrong)

Temple- Only 2-6 in Q1 games, but a solid 6-1 in Q2 games, Temple has put themselves in position to get a bid with a couple wins in the AAC tournament (and may sneak in regardless).  The win over Houston is huge and the win over UCF has become a Q1 win with UCF’s recent surge.  As far as wins over tournament teams that is all they have, but they have good road wins over Missouri, Wichita State, UConn and USF to go with a neutral cite win over Davidson.  That 10-6 road/neutral record should be helpful.  If the committee values predictive metrics at all they could drop some (only 69 kenpom), but that typically has not been the case. 

Ohio State-  Another team that is 4 games under .500 in their conference and they have really faded down the stretch.  They have fallen to 55 NET and 44 kenpom.  They went 4-9 against Q1 teams, though their best win is almost certainly the season opener at Cincinnati.  Since then they don’t have a single win against a definite tournament team away from home.  They do have road wins over bubble teams Creighton and Indiana which should help if they are compared with those teams.  They are 4-3 against Q2, including wins over Iowa and Minnesota (both at home).  This looks like a first four type resume to me and an early loss could have them in real trouble. 

Utah State- Are the home Nevada win and Neutral court St Marys win enough?  They seem like a prototypical end of the bracket or just out team.  3-2 Q1 is helpful as most bubble teams are well below .500 in q1 games, but they are only 1-3 in Q2 games.  They have a loss to bubble Arizona State, but no really bad losses.  The 30 NET is really good if that matters at all, the kenpom of 40 is fine and at large worthy.  I hope they get in, but it will likely be close. 

St Johns- How much will the committee value these middling Big East teams?  St Johns is 66 NET and 74 kenpom.  If they get in they have a great shot to be the worst at large team in the field.  They finished under .500 in the Big East and were swept by Xavier (gross).  AND YET….  They are 5-6 in q1 games and 5-3 in Q2 games which will compare very favorably to much of the bubble.  A road win over Marquette is good, a Neutral site win over VCU is nice (both by 1 point) and they managed to beat Villanova and Marquette at home.  They benefit greatly from the abundance of NIT caliber teams in the Big East keeping them close.  I think they probably shouldn’t be in baring a run in the Big East tournament, but I think they are very likely to get in. 

Arizona State-  They have to hope the committee continues to value good wins more than bad losses.  If that trend continues they will likely be on the right side of the bubble despite being 67 NET and 62 kenpom.  They have two Q4 losses (Princeton and Washington State at home) and two more Q3 losses (at Vandy and at a putrid Cal team).  However, they have neutral court wins over Mississippi State and Utah State, beat Kansas at home when Kansas was at full strength and beat Washington the only time they played.  I’ve always been of the belief the committee should weight predictive metrics more than they do, but if it continues to be a look at Q1/Q2 kind of thing, Arizona State will sneak in. 

Last Five I Have In For Now

Texas- They’re probably a tournament caliber team (39 NET, 27 kenpom), but they’d have more losses than any team in the history of the tournament.  I’m skeptical but can’t rule them out.  They have a bad loss to Radford.  They are only 5-9 against Q1 teams and 4-5 against Q2 teams.  To their credit they beat UNC on a neutral court, Kansas State on the road and Purdue at home.  They have a 1 point loss to bubble VCU.  They split with Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas, but were swept by bubble TCU.  The Big 12 is really deep with quality teams.  The committee could choose to reward a team that is really good despite the losses.  They don’t have any bad losses and have played the 6^th toughest schedule in the country (16^th nonconference SOS), which the committee often rewards. 

Belmont- The kind of small conference team that almost always gets left out at the expense of middling power conference teams.  They are 45 NET, 53 kenpom.  They went 2-2 against Q1 and 3-2 against Q2.  17 of their wins are against Q4.  Racking up wins against the dregs is something the committee kills teams for, but they can’t help their conference.  They played the 76^th nonconference SOS (by the committee’s team sheet metric which I believe is still stupidly RPI SOS).  Their best wins are road wins at Murray State and Lipscomb, which are really solid wins likely to be undervalued by the committee.  They also beat Lipscomb at home, in a weird scheduling fluke like UC had with Dayton many years ago and beat UCLA at Pauley.  The resume is light on what the committee likes, but I am hopeful it will be just enough. 

Florida- 14 losses, only 3-11 against Q1 teams, but 33 NET and 30 kenpom.  They are probably a tournament caliber team, but they have a lot of losses and with that many opportunities should that be rewarded?  They have a great road win at LSU, but their other q1 road wins are at Bama and Arkansas (are those really any better than Belmont’s wins at Lipscomb and Murray State?).  They are 3-1 in Q2 games beating Ole Miss and Butler at home, but this is the kind of resume that screams NIT to me.  They’ll likely be right around the cutline. 

NC State-  I want to keep this team out of the tournament and every instinct I have tells me that if it ends up being close the committee will do so.  There are 353 teams in division 1 college basketball, and by the committee’s metric NC State played the 353^rd worst nonconference SOS.  Nobody played a worse nonconference SOS.  Nonconference SOSs in the 300s have been a death sentence for bubble teams in the past, will that trend continue?  The biggest difference this year is while RPI would have NC State at 101 (that’s right 101!), NET has NC State at 32 (they are 31 kenpom).  They are undoubtedly a good team, likely a tournament caliber team, but that nonconference SOS is something else.  2-8 q1, but 6-0 q2.  4 of their Q1 losses are to Virginia, Duke and UNC, which are losses almost everyone would have.  3 of their other four Q1 losses are on the road.  They have wins over Auburn, Clemson and Syracuse.  History says they get penalized and left out without a couple more wins, but the NET is new and things may be different now. 

TCU- They have feasted on the middle and bottom of the big 12, which is no small matter because the Big 12 is incredibly deep with quality.  Swept by Texas Tech, Swept by Kansas, Swept by Kansas state.  That’s 6 of their 11 conference losses.  They swept Iowa State and swept bubble Texas.   3-8 Q1 and 5-4 Q2 with zero bad losses.  I think they need at least a win in the Big 12 tournament and even then the play in game would probably be best case scenario unless they make a run. 

First Five Out (But I Could Miss On)

Creighton-  They better hope they aren’t on the cutline vs. Ohio State, because their resumes are virtually identical.  Only 3-10 in Q1 games, by 6-3 in q2 games.  They have zero bad losses which could carry some weight.  A road win over suddenly fading Marquette and a neutral sight win over Clemson are their biggest wins.  They were swept by bubble Seton Hall and St Johns and they split with bubblish Xavier and Butler.

Indiana- 6 q1 wins is the biggest thing they have going for them, but they are only 7-14 against q1/q2 teams.  14 losses is a lot to reward, but of the bubble teams they are undoubtedly going to have the best wins.  They swept Michigan State (the outright Big Ten champions), beat Wisconsin at home, Louisville at home and Marquette at home.  They sit at 51 NET and 42 kenpom.  If committee looks to best wins to differentiate between teams like Indiana, Clemson, Ohio State and NC State, Indiana could have the advantage.  14 losses is a lot though.

Clemson- 1-9 in Q1 games with the one win at home against Virginia Tech.  6-3 in Q2 games, though  none of those are against tournament caliber teams away from home (and only the Syracuse win is against a true tournament caliber team).  They are 35 NET and 28 kenpom which suggests they are a tournament caliber team that’s played good schedule and been a bit unlucky (299 in kenpom luck factor), but there really isn’t much there to love.  Without a couple more wins they will be hovering around the cutline. 

Lipscomb- 2-3 Q1, but only 1-3 Q2.  17 of their wins are q4.  They have a nice road win against bubble TCU, but that’s not going to be enough.

Alabama- They’ve done almost nothing away from home.  They are 4-8 on the road.  They have home wins over UK, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Murray state.  They are 2-9 in Q1 games and 7-3 in Q2.  I think they’ll be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

I Can't See Them Getting in Without Help and A Great Championship Week

Georgetown-  They played the 251 nonconference SOS and in doing so racked up 2 Q3 losses.  I think they’ll pay the price for that and need to at least make the finals of the Big East tournament to have a chance.  Getting to 9-9 in the conference helped, as did winning by 2 at Marquette and beating Villanova at home.  After that their resume just isn’t anything to write home about.  Swept by bubble Creighton, split with Seton Hall, split with bubble St. Johns, split with bubbling Xavier, Split with bubblish Butler.  Only 76 NET and 86 kenpom.  This shouldn’t be a tournament team. 

Toledo-  Missed both opportunities against Buffalo (their only 2 Q1 games).  4-0 against Q2 teams, which is good, but none of them are tournament quality and that matters to the committee.  They have 4 q3 losses (11-4).  They need to win the MAC tournament. 

Xavier-  Too many losses, not enough meat on the schedule, but does a run to the conference championship game give them a chance?  They are 4-8 against q1 teams and 4-4 against q2.  They are 71 NET and have climbed from the 100s to 66 kenpom.  A home win over Villanova and road wins over Seton Hall and St. Johns are their “big” wins.  They also have home wins over Creighton, Butler and St Johns.  Their 2 q3 losses aren’t great and their wins aren’t good enough to offset everything else, but the teams above them aren’t that strong you can’t rule out a run to the Big East Finals getting them there. 

Butler- Only 1-10 in Q 1 games, but 8-4 in Q2 games.  Their resume is remarkably similar to Clemson’s except they have not played as good of teams as Clemson.  Their best win is the neutral court win over bubble Florida.  They also have home wins over Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall, St Johns and Xavier (all bubble in or out).  They lost on a neutral floor to bubble Indiana and only went 7-11 in the league.  Another team that needs a run to the conference tournament finals. 

Memphis-  I think they need to win the AAC tournament (at Memphis so there is that), but a run to finals makes them interesting.  They are 53 NET and only 72 kenpom.  They went 1-8 against Q1 teams so picking up two to make the finals gets them to 3-8.  They have home wins over UCF and Temple.  3 wins would give them another over UCF and likely one over Houston.  They’d only be 2-3 against q2 teams, so I’m skeptical it would be enough, but again the teams above them aren’t great either. 

Small Teams that I Wouldn't Mind Getting a Shot that Won't

UNCG- 2-5 in Q1 games.  I don't think two wins over Furman and ETSU are enough.  

Furman-  I’m skeptical that 1-5 in Q1 games will be enough even if the one win is a road win at Villanova.  Swept by Wofford, who will make it.  Swept by UNC Greensboro.  16 wins are q4.  They are 41 NET and 55 kenpom.  That’s just not good enough. 

St Marys-  At 37 NET and 33 Kenpom they probably are an NCAA tournament caliber team, but I doubt they can get in without winning the WCC.  They are 1-6 against q1 teams and their only win is over New Mexico State.  They are 2-3 against q2 but nothing really stands out there.  I can’t see them making it.

New Mexico State- Only 1 q1 game (a loss to Kansas).  2-1 against Q2, but none of those matter much and the loss was to St Marys.  14 of their wins are q4.  They won’t be a tournament team without winning their conference tournament. 

Re-living the Dream

I haven’t blogged in a long time.  Life tends to get in the way.  However, my facebook memories keep popping up with pictures from the 2008 UC football season and I couldn’t resist.  The Bearcats won their first Big East Championship and earned a spot in the Orange Bowl.  As someone who grew up attending nearly every UC home football game this was unfathomable.  I was someone who constantly sang the virtues of UC football…who was personally offended by UC basketball fans that chose to support OSU, Notre Dame or Michigan in football.  I was adamant growing up we had a perfectly good, D1 football program right here in town that had potential to grow.  I dreamed of something like what 2008 became but the reality was so much more. 

While 2009 is rightfully viewed as the pinnacle of Bearcat football and is unquestionably the best season in Bearcat football history, 2008 was the place where it all came together.  If you followed UC football close back then you thought something special might happen.  2006 and 2007 had shown that UC could compete at the highest levels and 2008 promised to be their best team yet.  I was so convinced that UC could win the conference and make a BCS Bowl I decided to attend as many games as possible.  I wound up going to 12 of 14 games (missing trips to UConn and Hawaii).  Despite the anticipation for what the season could be, when you look back it’s incredible what UC achieved that season given the adversity they faced.

The Bearcats started the season taking care of business against Eastern Kentucky, then took a trip to Norman, Oklahoma.  Sam Bradford was magnificent and Oklahoma unveiled their new, incredibly up tempo offense.  The Bearcats couldn’t stop them and despite keeping up with them decently for a good stretch ultimately got run off the field.  More importantly, the Bearcats lost their starting quarterback for what most thought would be the entire season.  Suddenly, the expectations for the season took a hit. 

The Bearcats followed that loss up by running Miami off the field (no surprise there), but then struggled at Akron partly due to an injury to Tony Pike.  Down 15 to 14 in the fourth quarter, Zach Collaros helped get the Bearcats in range for the game winning field goal and the Bearcat defense held on late.  The Bearcats won at Marshall the next week with Chazz Anderson giving a serviceable effort.  The following week the Bearcats opened conference play against Rutgers.  What I remember about that game was the punt fest.  Neither offense was particularly effective, but Kevin Huber was great and UC snuck out with a 13-10 win. 

Then it all fell apart.  The Bearcats went to Uconn.  Pike tried to play but was abysmal going 10 for 27.  Chazz Anderson really wasn’t any better.  The Bearcats got run off the field losing 40 to 16.  They fell to 1-1 in the conference with the meat of their conference schedule still to come.  They recovered beating USF at home on a Thursday night.  Tony Pike was back and played well.  The Defense made Grothe look bad all night.  This set up what I consider the most important three game stretch in Bearcat football History. 

There was no way for the Bearcats to win the conference without winning at West Virginia.  West Virginia was the class of the conference.  They’d blown out Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl the year before.  They still had Pat White.  They were a force in the Big East.  We traveled to Mograntown, West Virginia hoping for a great performance and expecting the fans to be all over us. 

Bearcats @ Mountaineers, November 8, 2008

I should say, their fans were great.  A group came up to us in the tailgate lot and had us join their tailgate.  We partied the entire program with WVU fans with zero issues.  We walked to the stadium and found are seats in the Cincinnati section.  The place was electric.  UC chose to receive to open the game and Mardy Gilyard took the opening kickoff back for a touchdown.  The UC section was rocking and the Bearcats seemingly controlled the entire game from that point forward.

The Bearcats had the ball with 2:11 to go up 13 and on their own 2.  WVU stuffed them 3 straight plays and used their last timeouts.  On fourth down the Bearcats took a safety instead of punting hoping to avoid disaster.  After the safety it was 20 to 9, but there was only 1:11 to play.  UC gave the ball back to WVU on their own 39 yard line.  WVU took seven plays to go 61 yards for a touchdown.  There were 18 seconds left and WVU was down 20 to 15.  They had no timeouts. 

I remember turning to my friend unable to believe what had happened.  He tried to say, it’s still over.  WVU converted the two point conversion and suddenly it was 20 to 17.  WVU had to onside kick…they did and recovered.  I’m stunned at that point.  Even after recovering they had to get into field goal range.  They went 3 plays for 21 yards setting up a game tying field goal from 52 yards.  I’m loudly saying I can’t believe this is happening, while my friend tells me he isn’t going to hit a 52 yard field goal.  I remember asking him, “Have you not been watching the last minute?”  Sure enough, McAfee drills a 52 yard field goal as time expires.  It was 20 to 7, UC with the ball with 1:15 to go.  The game was now tied 20 to 20. 

How this team responded in overtime is something I will never forget.  The Bearcats gave up one first down, but stopped Devine twice, leaving WVU with third and 3 from the 7.  WVU was made for third and 3s.  I still remember watching the play and seeing open space ahead for Pat White as he tried to take off toward it.  Somehow Terrill Byrd caught him before he could get moving, sacking him for a 3 yard loss.  The Bearcats held him to 3 setting up what for me is one of the most memorable plays in Bearcat history. 

The Bearcats got a first down on a pass to Goodman to open OT, then after a penalty and a Jacob Ramsey five yard run were sitting 2^nd and goal from the 2 yard line.  The Bearcats came out in a rare power set.  They ran play action and you could see Kazeem Alli flash wide open before Pike ever threw the football.  As the ball is in the air I was ready to explode.  He caught the ball and bedlam encompasses the entire Bearcat section.  From being sure we’d win, to being devastated to be in overtime, to unparralled exhilaration all within the span of minutes.  Suddenly, a Big East title and BCS Bowl seemed more real than ever. 

Bearcats @ Cardinals, November 14, 2008

 The Cardinals were struggling as the Bearcats traveled to Louisville, but this was a rivalry and the Bearcats hadn’t beat Louisville since 2002.  Even during a really strong 2007 season, an inferior Cardinals team had managed to beat the Bearcats at Nippert.  The 2008 game took place on a chilly, rainy Friday night.  The first half was back and forth with the Bearcats falling behind 17 to 14 entering the locker room.  The Cardinals expanded the lead to 20 to 14 after a Bearcat fumble. 

The entire game had a sloppy field.  With both teams turning it over and the offenses unable to consistently sustain drives.  The Bearcats took the lead on a 23 yard touchdown pass to Dominick Goodman (an awesome, full out diving catch by Goody) halfway through the third quarter.  After a Tony Pike interception early in the fourth quarter, the Bearcat sent Dustin Grutza onto the field.   It was incredible to see Grutza back after the injury in the Oklahoma game.  Grutza promptly took the Bearcats on a 5 play, 72 yard touchdown drive to put the Bearcats up 8 with 6:29 to go. 

The Bearcat section was rocking hard the rest of the game, making as much noise as possible.  Louisville turned it over on downs twice, on two drives totaling 23 yards.  The defense suffocated them at the end and the Bearcats were suddenly 1 win from a Big East Championship.  Nobody in the Bearcat section wanted to leave that night.  I remember standing in the concourses for maybe half an hour after the game with hundreds of Bearcat fans repeatedly performing down the drive exchanging hugs and high fives.  It was an absolute celebration for so many who had followed this program for years. 

Bearcats vs. Panthers, November 22, 2008

Both Bearcat BCS bids were clinched against the Pitt Panthers.  This would be the first.  Everyone knew the stakes.  One win and the Bearcats would be Big East Champions…one win and they would be heading to a BCS Bowl (everyone assumed the Orange Bowl).  The game took place at 8:00 pm and I believe it is the coldest Bearcat game I’ve attended.  By my memory the game was in single digits at kickoff.

I arrived to set up my tailgate about 9:00 a.m.  Back then we were still tailgating in the lot between Calhoun and McMillan where In The Wood used to be.  Nearly every Bearcat fan I knew at that time braved the cold to party all day and go to the game.  A group next to us had a tent set up with a fire to go inside and warm up.  You could feel the excitement around Clifton all day.

Everything seemed to go perfect for most the game.  After Pitt scored to go up 7-0 the Bearcats rolled off 28 unanswered points between the second quarter and the first minute of the fourth quarter.  Of course, it would not be this season for the Bearcats not to leave some doubt at the end.  Pitt scored a touchdown with 10 minutes to go, then another with 1:22 to go.  They tried an onside kick and the Bearcats recovered.  However, UC couldn’t put the game away Pitt got the ball back at their own 32. 

On third and 8 with one play left, Pitt threw the ball to McCoy who appeared like he was being tackled.  Students poured onto the field ready to celebrate.  However, McCoy lateraled the ball and Pitt kept lateraling until one was finally intercepted by Brandon Underwood and everyone could exhail.  The Bearcats had done it.  They were Big East Champions and Heading to a BCS Bowl.  The celebration on the field was epic.  A season that seemed to have so much go wrong early had culminated to this.  And three huge weeks in a row had lead the Bearcats to the promise land.

There were two more games and the Orange Bowl to follow.  The Bearcats clinched an outright Big East title at home vs. Syracuse, then won a satisfying, though irrelevant game at Hawaii in dramatic fashion.  The trip to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale is one I’ll never forget despite the disappointing result.  Bearcat fans were all over the place.  We went down for a full week, having a buddy hook us up with a free hotel room.  It’s been 10 years now, but I’ll never forget that stretch of football games that culminated in a Big East Championship and Orange Bowl bid.  Still the most important three games in Bearcat football history…forever a thrill for those of us who grew up living and dying with the program.