Bearcats Survive at Nippert

                My tailgate group began arriving at the lot around 11:00.  Despite the rain we set up four tents, a couple fires and a couple TVs to tailgate all afternoon in preparation for the big game.  Temple had won four in a row against the Bearcats.  True 2 of those games had been against the Tuberville Bearcats and one against year 1 Fickell, but Temple had been the second best AAC program in the East over that span, consistently finding themselves in the conference championship race.  Despite the Bearcats being 11 point favorites most Bearcat fans understood this would be a battle.  On the line, the AAC East championship and the opportunity to play for a conference championship in two weeks.  In the end the defense came up huge, the special teams made more enormous plays and the running game did just enough for the Bearcats to survive. 

                The first quarter was a mess.  Temple moved down the field early, but the UC defense held them on 4^th down to get the offense the ball.  Both teams then traded three and outs (each offense going 3 and out twice) before UC went on a 16 play 53 yard drive culminating in a field goal early in the second quarter.  On the drive the offense only completed 1 pass (a seven yard pass to Mdodj on first down).  Every other positive play was a run.  Crosa capped of the drive with a 36 yard FG to put the Bearcats on the board. 

                It looked like 3-0 would be the score going into the half.  Both offenses struggled immensely throughout the second quarter.  Neither team put together a drive longer than 27 yards.  With 2:02 left in the half Temple punted the ball back to UC.  UC caught the punt for a modest return.  However, when they came back out UC had been given the ball on the Temple 6.  Temple’s punter had caught the snap with his knee down, so UC took over from that spot.  The Bearcat offense went backward from there and had to settle for a 37 yard field goal to take a 6-0 lead into the locker room.  The drive all but ended on first down when UC called a rollout for Ridder.  The rollout enabled Ridder to make a couple reads and if he didn’t like what he saw he could just throw the ball out of the endzone without getting grounding.  Instead Ridder took a 14 yard sack, putting UC in a near impossible situation.  It was maybe the most frustrating play of the many frustrating plays Ridder made throughout the night. 

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                Like the 2019 Bearcats against Temple, the 2009 Bearcats went into a home game against West Virginia with a chance to clinch an opportunity to play for an outright conference championship.  West Virginia was the biggest game on the home schedule.  They’d been the class of the Big East and a top ten type program in their recent history.  The Bearcats forced a three and out to start the game then Colloros marched the Bearcats down the field with a couple of passes and a series of Pead runs.  When the Bearcats reached the redzone, Tony Pike took the field for the first time since USF.  On the first play he found Binns across the middle in the endzone and the Bearcats took a 7-0 lead.  The UC defense continued to play well in the first quarter, but a fumble by Adrien Robinson on an 18 yard reception set up a short field and WVU capitalized tying the game at 7.

                West Virginia would take the lead a couple drives later.  After Jake Rogers missed a 34 yard field goal, West Virginia went 80 yards in eight plays to give them a 14-7 lead.  The Bearcats rarely trailed in 2009 and they wouldn’t trail for long.  Mardy Gilyard took the kickoff 48 yards into WVU territory (Huge Mardy Gilyard kick returns would be a thing the last three weeks of the season) and the Bearcats quickly scored the tying touchdown on a 2 yard Pead run.  The teams would go into the half tied at 14.

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                The Bearcats opened the second half against Temple with their biggest drive of the day.  It was the kind of physical, imposing drive this team has seemingly come through with all season.  They completed zero passes on the drive (only throwing it once) and instead ran 8 times for 65 yards culminating in a 13 yard Michael Warren touchdown run.  After a Grosa extra point the Bearcats lead 13-0.  It would remain 13-0 for the rest of the third quarter.

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                Similarly, the 2009 Bearcats came out of the half and marched down the field for a touchdown.  They started the drive with a heavy dose of Isaiah Pead.  Collaros then completed three straight passes getting UC to the WVU 6.  Once again Brian Kelly brought Tony Pike back into the game and Pike delivered on third and goal, throwing a strike to D.J. Woods for a touchdown to put the Bearcats back up 21-14.  It would remain 21-14 for the rest of the quarter.

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                Just when it seemed like the Bearcat defense was going to shut Temple down the entire game, Temple fought back into it.  Temple opened the fourth quarter with a 10 play, 73 yard touchdown drive, cutting the lead to 13-6.  Temple lined up for the PAT to cut the lead to 6 and then the Bearcat special teams came up with the defining play of the game.  The Bearcats blocked the PAT then Coby Bryant looked around and decided to pick up the ball and try to take it back.  From the endzone it didn’t look open and then suddenly as he burst left it did.  A cavalcade of blockers ran alongside him as Bryant sprinted toward the endzone and two points.  Instead of a touchdown beating UC, Temple would need two scores to win the game. 

                The Bearcats got the ball back with a chance to run some clock and put Temple away.  It did not happen.  Warren ran twice getting UC in third and 3, but Ridder took another sack on third down and UC punted the ball back to Temple.  Temple got the ball back and for the second straight time marched down the field putting the ball in the endzone and cutting the Bearcat lead to two.  A field goal would now beat them.  With the game on the line, the offense mostly did its job, moving the ball 42 yards in 10 plays (mostly on the ground, though UC managed a key third down conversion through the air), running off 4:18 of clock and setting Crosa up for a 40 yard field goal.  However, Crosa missed the field goal and the UC lead remained 2.

                Temple got the ball back with a chance to win the game with a field goal of their own.  That’s when the Bearcat defense, again came up with the key play it needed.  After converting a 4^th and one, UC pressured Anthony Russo into a throw he didn’t want to make and Derek Forest was there to run under it, catch it and seal the victory.  It wasn’t pretty.  The passing game continues to have severe issues, but ultimately, this team made enough plays to beat a good Temple team, remain unbeaten the AAC and lock up their spot in the AAC Championship game. 

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                For as much as people dogged on the Bearcat defense in 2009 they often came up with plays when the offense was struggling.  After the TD drive to open the second half the Bearcat offense struggled.  However, the Bearcat defense continued to keep WVU out of the endzone.  With 6 minutes left in the game and the Bearcats up 7, UC forced a turnover on downs getting the ball back to the offense.  The offense moved 55 yards in 7 plays before Rogers kicked a Field Goal to go up 24-14 with 3:15 to go.  Though West Virginia would add a touchdown, the Bearcat defense forced them to take up most the clock to do so.  By the time WVU found the endzone there was only 39 seconds left.  The Bearcats recovered the onside kick, took a knee and put themselves one win away from a conference championship. 

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                The Bearcats have to beat Memphis to win the conference.  If they win at the Liberty Bowl this week they’ll host the AAC Championship in two weeks.  If they lose, they’ll be back at the Liberty Bowl again needing to beat Memphis to win the conference.  A win next week and they’ll likely be hosting Navy for the conference championship.  However, should Navy lose to Houston the Bearcats would be playing Memphis again, though this time at Nippert.  Bottom line is the Bearcats are likely to need better production from Ridder to have any hope of beating Memphis.  Memphis has been the most consistent team in the conference all season.  Their offense is explosive and will almost certainly find the endzone a few times.  Despite their flaws, the Bearcats are exactly where we all hoped they would be with 2 weeks to play.  It’s been a hell of a season.  Let’s hope they can win two more.   

Lightning Round – The “lightweight” conference games.

I haven’t had time to write the last few weeks and the games were all “should win” type games, so I thought I’d just cover these similar stretches in the 2019 and 2009 season with brief thoughts on each game.  Both stretches of the schedule focused on conference matchups against the bottom of the conference where the Bearcats were heavy favorites.  Both featured some tests (this year more than in 2009) and in both stretches the Bearcats made it out unscathed for the stretch run.  This will also allow me to play with the schedule so that the game at Pitt coincides with a potential conference championship game in the AAC. So here we go, lightning round as to how the 2009 and 2019 Bearcats took care of business against the bottom of the conference and put themselves in position to win the conference and make a major bowl game.

2019 Tulsa at Cincinnati

                It was a beautiful day for Bearcat football one which I celebrated by bringing my 1.5 year old daughter down for her first tailgate.  The day started at the Zoo then we picked up some Adriaticos and tailgated behind Martinos.  My wife and daughter stayed for a bit than went home while I stayed for a great tailgate and a hard fought win.

                Though the Bearcats were in control for most the game, it never felt like they played close to their best.  This will be a theme in this stretch of football.  The Bearcats lead throughout, but it was a one score game for most of the second half.  Ultimately, the defense forced a critical turnover (they forced 5 on the day) and put the game away with a quick touchdown on the next play, moving the Bearcats to 6-1 on the season and 3-0 in the AAC.

2009 Louisville at Cincinnati

                Louisville had owned the rivalry for several years prior to 2008, when UC won at Louisville on their way to their first Big East Championship.  In 2009, the Bearcats had little trouble in dispatching the Cardinals at Nippert.  Zach Collaros made his first career start throwing for 263 yards (on 15 of 17 for 14.9 yards a clip) and running for 52 more.  Isaiah Pead only ran 6 times, but had 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.  By the end of the game both Chazz Anderson and Brendon Kay saw action as the Bearcats won 41 to 10. 

2019 Bearcats at ECU

                ECU had been a disaster all season and everyone expected this to be a complete blowout.  Though the ECU defense proved as inept as expected, the ECU offense found itself and a sure victory suddenly looked like a defeat.  Instead of making the trip to ECU, like I’d probably have done in 2009, I traveled to Washington DC to meet my new nephew and visit my sister.  ECU and Cincinnati traded scores in the first quarter (ending with UC up 21 to 14), then ECU ran off 17 straight in the second quarter to take a 31 to 21 lead into the locker room.  It’s easy to blame the defense when a team moves the ball and scores like ECU did that night, but it shouldn’t be lost that Ahlers and his receivers were unbelievable all night.  Ahlers delivered strike after strike on time and on target, often with pressure in his face.  The ECU receivers seemed to catch everything around them.  It was an unexpected performance from them.

                However, ECU struggled to stop the UC running game and by the time we reached the middle of the 4^th quarter UC had cut the lead to 5.   ECU again drove into Cincinnati territory when for the second time this season Ahmad Gardner made an enormous, game swinging type play, jumping the Ahlers pass and taking it to the house.  You felt like the Bearcats had to have a defensive score to win the way ECU was playing and that is what happened.  ECU would tie it on a late field goal but Crosa would hit one of his own as time expired and the Bearcats completed a miraculous escape from East Carolina.

2009 Cincinnati at Syracuse

                The game was set to be played at noon on a Saturday, so after my friend got off work we hopped in his car and drove overnight to Syracuse.  We pulled into the hotel parking lot at about 5:00 a.m. and slept for a couple hours in the car before heading to Campus to tailgate.  It was a wet, chilly day.  The lot was a bit muddy, but we found some Bearcat fans, grilled some sausage and cheese sandwiches and had some fun.  Given the weather outside, the Carrier Dome wasn’t a bad place to watch a football game.  The Bearcats paced themselves scoring a TD every quarter.  Collaros threw for four TDs on the game and only 6 incomplete passes.  It was another game where the Bearcats never trailed and behind another solid defensive effort UC left with a firmly controlling 28-7 win.

2019 UConn at Cincinnati

                UConn is terrible.  I mean really terrible.  I mean, horribly, incredibly, historically terrible. 

2009 UConn at Cincinnati

                Talk about two entirely different UConn programs. About the only thing that UConn team and the 2019 UConn team had in common was Randy Edsall.  UConn wasn’t great by any means in 2009, but they weren’t bad either.  They won at Baylor.  They lost by 2 to number 19 UNC.  They won a double OT game at Notre Dame.  UConn came to Cincinnati having lost two close games in the conference.  Cincinnati would be their last loss of the season and the game would be one of the most memorable of 2009.  The game was in prime time on ABC and Zach Collaros had maybe the greatest game I’ve ever seen a Bearcat quarterback play. 

                Collaros threw for 480 yards and ran for 75 more, for 3 total tds.  The UC offense marched up and down the field all night.  However, this was the game where the Bearcat defense, which had been solid for most of the year, began to really fall apart.   The Bearcats ran out to a 30 to 10 lead, then after a UConn Td, extended the lead back out to 37 to 17.  UConn returned a punt for a TD, then after a UC field goal they had a quick TD drive to cut the lead to 8.  UC had a rare punt and UConn scored again with 5:03 left to cut it to 2.  They failed on the two point conversion. 

                UC got the ball back up 2 with 5 minutes left.  Collaros again marched UC right down the field completing 4 straight passes.  UC was stopped after 3 runs and had forth and 1 from the UConn 14.  Instead of kicking, Kelly left the offense on the field.  Pead beat everyone for a 14 yard touchdown to put the Bearcats up 9 with just under 2 minutes to play.  UConn would score another TD with 13 seconds left, but UC recovered the onside kick and escaped Nippert with the win. 

2019 Cincinnati at USF

                It was ugly.  God was it ugly, but UC escaped USF with another last second win on a Crosa field goal.  Based on SP+ factors UC had about a 20% chance of winning that game, going by how it was played.  However, the USF kicker seemed to want UC to pull it out.  The first half was an utter disaster salvaged by the defense not allowing TDs and USF missing field goals.  The second half UC ran the ball mostly well and doing just enough on offense to tie the game.  With the game tied late, USF again missed a field goal. UC picked up two huge third downs on the final drive before Crosa kicked another game winning field goal at the gun. 

Where we stand

                The Bearcats head to their final home game with a chance to clinch the American Conference East Division.  They’ll have to do so against a Temple team that has beaten the Bearcats four straight years, including a brutal loss last season where UC blew a second half lead.  What scares me right now is the staff does not seem to have any confidence in the passing game (and Ridder hasn’t really given them a reason to have confidence).  Last season UC lost the Temple game largely because Temple loaded up against the run in the second half and dared Ridder to beat them through the air.  The staff all but abandoned any semblance of trying to pass and UC couldn’t put it away on the ground.  UC nearly lost to USF in a similar way…abandoning any hope of moving the ball through the air.  They don’t need to be a great passing team, but they need to find a way to attack down field and loosen up really good Temple defense. 

A Tale of Two Road Games

                I wasn’t planning to go to Tampa.  I really wasn’t.  The game was scheduled on a Thursday night, I couldn’t convince my normal travel group to make the trip and I really was broke.  In 2008/2009 I was spending every free dollar on Bearcat football.  Despite making it to 4 of the first 5 games of 2009 and 12 of the 14 in 2008 I was prepared to take this one off.  I can’t even remember how it happened, but I remember a guy I played a lot of pickup basketball with at the UC rec saying he wanted to drive down.  He said it would be a quick trip (he wasn’t exaggerating).  I said, what the hell, I’m in and just like that I was driving down to Tampa to watch the Bearcats play the #21 South Florida Bulls on a Thursday night. 

                When I tell you it was a quick trip, I’m not screwing with you.  We left Wednesday night.  We drove overnight, straight through.  We arrived at one of the people’s friend’s house around noon on Thursday.  We hung out at the pool for a few hours, then made our way into the city.  We tailgated briefly, then walked to Raymond James Stadium for the game.  We watched the game.  Took a few pictures after the game at the Pirate Ship, then got back in the car and drove back to Cincinnati.  We were home somewhere around 36 hours after we left.  But while we were there, we watched another memorable Bearcat performance.

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                It’s crazy how different life is in 2019.  I never even considered making the trip to Houston.  However, even if I had, that would have been vetoed immediately.  My wife’s friend had chosen this day to get married and my wife required my attendance.  With a 3:30 kickoff and a 5:30 wedding, I was generously looking at the prospect of watching the first half then figuring it out for the rest of the game.  Fall weddings remain the bane of my existence.  It was a great time, but it would have been a great time in the spring when I didn’t have to miss some snaps in a UC football game.  For a big midseason conference game on the road, I would be forced to watch what I could of the second half from my cell phone.  A far cry from 2009 when I drove nearly 2000 miles in 36 or so hours to watch in person.

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                In 2009, the Bearcats’ football schedule was backloaded with home games.  They opened the season with a win at Rutgers.  Their second conference game was this road trip to South Florida.  If they could somehow manage to beat the Bulls 4 of their next 5 games would be at Nippert.  The Bulls had opened the season 5-0 including a win at #19 Florida State.  They were ranked 21^st in the country and seen by many as a contender in the conference.  The game was in prime time, on ESPN on a Thursday night.  It was a big game and a huge opportunity.  A win and the Bearcats would be 2-0 having already beaten two potential contenders for the conference championship on the road with a run of home games to come.  If they managed to win, it was hard to see the Bearcats losing before WVU came to Nippert for their second to last conference game.  At that point an undefeated season would be well within their sights.

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                Though this Houston team didn’t come in with the pedigree of South Florida in 2009, it was a similar opportunity for putting UC in the driver’s seat in the conference.  Having already beaten UCF, this figured to be UC’s toughest test before a home tilt with Temple late in the season.  After this week the schedule really opened with a home game against Tulsa, then drawing the three bottom east teams after the bye week.  With that slate of games, winning at Houston could really set UC up so that they could lock up the division at home against Temple.  Because of all the oddities surrounding Houston this had the makings of a trap type game, but the opportunity to set their season on a great course would be there. 

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                There was a really good crowd at Raymond James Stadium.  The place wasn’t full, but I’d bet there were 50,000+ there that night.  I was surprised how many UC fans flooded the upper deck.  A really fun contingent had made the trip.  UC fell behind 7-3 in the first quarter, but as they had done often that year they started to separate in the second quarter.  UC scored a touchdown after an interception put them on a short field to go up 10-7, then scored another TD on a long touchdown drive when Pike found Armon Binns to go up 17-7.  The Bulls added a field goal and UC took a 17-10 lead into the locker room.  However, early in the second half Tony Pike would be forced to leave the game with an injury and the game was very much in doubt.  The Bearcats would have to turn to sophomore Zach Collaros to hold on to the 17-10 lead. 

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                It looked like we might get another repeat of Marshall early against Houston.  The Bearcats met almost zero resistance in marching down the field for an opening drive TD.  The big play on the drive was a 44 yard connection between Ridder and Pierce.  After an interception on their second drive set up a field goal for Houston, the Bearcats struck immediately with a 75 yard TD pass to an utterly wide open Rashad Medaris.  However, the offense seemed to go into a shell for the rest of the half.  The Bearcats punted on 3 straight possessions, where they moved the ball a total of 17 yards.  Houston found the endzone on one of their drives, but the defense set up the offense again for a short field and UC capitalized allowing them to go into half with a 21-10 lead.  Despite the offense puttering for much of the half, the game seemed fairly well in hand. 

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                The Brian Kelly era is certainly the pinnacle of Bearcat football in my lifetime.  UC was in a BCS conference, ended up winning the conference twice in three years, going to two BCS bowls and ran up a 34-6 record in games Kelly coached.  The Brian Kelly era was known for winning, constant winning.  However, if there is another thing that seemed to constantly pop up during Kelly’s time at UC it was dealing with injuries to their quarterbacks. 

                The first season, much of that was brought on by the decision to bring in Ben Mauk.  Mauk was an injury plagued, graduate transfer from Wake Forest.  Mauk was incredibly fun to watch and played with a swagger that instantly endeared him to UC fans.  Who could forget him chopping wood at Rutgers?  However, I remember constantly reading stories about Mauk missing time in practice, or Mauk throwing a smaller ball to protect his arm during the week.  Despite ongoing injury concerns Mauk managed to start nearly every game that year, but when he was unable to go Dustin Grutza filled in admirably.  Grutza started and helped dominate when UC destroyed Miami and started and split time with Mauk in a dominant win against Marshall the next week.  Mauk battled through those injuries playing most the way the rest of the season. 

                2008 will forever be defined by winning the Big East Championship and making the Orange Bowl, but it was incredible for the QB issues UC faced game after game.  Grutza started the year as the man and in his second game at Oklahoma had a very good first half as UC tried to keep up with an incredible Oklahoma offense, getting it to the locker room at 21 to 13.  Grutza was knocked out of the game in the second half with what looked like a season ending injury and the Bearcats turned to Tony Pike.  Pike came in and kept the Bearcats rolling against Miami only to suffer an injury of his own the next week at Akron.  Pike would have to have surgery and miss 3-4 weeks.  The Bearcats replaced him with Zach Collaros, who helped finish a drive that got them in position for a field goal which turned out to be the game winner.  However, Zach wouldn’t keep the job.  The next two weeks the Bearcats turned to Chaz Anderson pulling out wins over Marshall and Rutgers (the later will forever be the Kevin Huber game to me…a real punt fest).  Pike attempted to come back to disastrous results against UConn, but was able to get it together for the end of the season, starting every game in the Bearcats’ five straight wins to lock up the conference.  Ultimately, he would struggle in their final game against Hawaii and Dustin Grutza would come back from the injury to lead a great fourth quarter comeback.  Four QBs, each contributing to wins in an 11 win season, culminating in an Orange Bowl.

                In 2009, Tony Pike had taken every meaningful snap going into the USF game.  UC was rolling and he was a huge reason why.  Up until that point, the only time UC fans had watched Collaros was that brief stretch at Akron.  And so it was, that Zach Collaros stepped in against USF, hoping to hold onto a 17-10 lead, on the road against the number 21 team in the country.

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                The talented USF defense seemed ready to make a play, when Collaros entered the game at QB.  The Bearcats ran the ball twice to start his day.  Pead lost a yard then Collaros ran for no game.  UC faced a third and eleven on their own 25.  Then came what I still consider the biggest (non Pitt game) play of the 2009 Bearcat football season.  I remember watching the play from the upper deck at Raymond James Stadium and the elation flowing through me as I saw the field open up.  Collaros took the snap and UC ran a designed sneak.  He caught a couple of blocks upfield, then sprung free.  He had a first down and was in a footrace for the endzone.  Collaros prevailed in the footrace giving the Bearcats a 24-10 lead they would never look back from. 

                Zach would later throw an interception and set USF up for a short TD drive to make it 24-17.  He immediately responded with a six play, 70 yard touchdown drive of his own.  On the drive he ran twice for 14 yards including his second TD rush of the day.  He completed a 43 yard pass to Ben Guidugli and a 15 yard pass to Isaiah Peed.  After the defense forced a three and out Collaros would lead the Bearcats on another long drive, this time settling for a FG to put UC up 34-17.  That would be the final score.  Pike had gone down and Collaros had answered the bell.  He would do so time and time again that season until Pike’s return.  The Bearcats were 2-0 in the Big East, having already beaten two contenders on the road.  They had a lot of games at Nippert on the horizon.  The feeling that this team could run the table and even be in the national title hunt was building. 

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                Houston came out in the second half against Cincinnati determined to make it interesting.  On their 4^th play of the drive they connected for a 69 yard TD to cut UC’s lead to 21-17.  The teams traded punts, before UC missed a field goal on its second drive of the half.  UC’s offense had failed to score on 6 of its last 7 drives.  Its only TD came courtesy of the defense forcing and interception and giving UC a very short field.  UC’s biggest issue and the one glaring thing that holds this team back right now is the offense goes through stretches where it is very ineffective.  However, this season when that has happened (outside of the OSU game) the defense has bailed them out.

                And that is again what happened Saturday.  After UC missed its field goal, the defense forced a fumble.  The Bearcat offense capitalized going 34 yards in 7 plays for a touchdown.  However, Houston struck back with a TD of their own to make it a five point game.  They missed the two point conversion that would have cut it to three.  Nine minutes left in the game and everything was very much in doubt.  It was good to see the Bearcats respond with at least a field goal on their next drive.  Tre Tucker had a nice return and despite two penalties before the ball was even snapped, the Bearcat offense overcame the 1^st and 20 picking up a few first downs before kicking a field goal to go up eight.

                By that time the cocktail hour at the wedding had ended and I was sitting at the table as salad was being delivered, with my phone in my lap and youtubetv streaming.  I was trying not to make it noticeable, but my wife made a few annoyed comments about it.  No surprise the Bearcat defense came up with another huge play to ice it.  The pass was deflected behind the line of scrimmage and Perry Young ran under it as if that was how the play had been designed the entire time.  He caught the pass and waltzed into the endzone.  UC fans could breathe easy. The Bearcats were escaping Houston with a hard fought win.  I threw my fist in the air and did a couple fist shakes, before putting my phone away for the rest of the wedding. 

                As the Bearcats enter the back half of their schedule, it is hard not to start looking ahead.  The next four are against probably the four worst teams in the conference.  Tulsa has shown flashes, but UC gets them at home.  A trip to ECU after a buy week should be scare free and UConn might as well not even get off the bus on November 9.  USF has shown some signs of life, so that game on November 16 may be a bit scary when it gets there, but as we stand it’s hard to imagine UC not going into the Temple game 9-1 with a chance to clinch the Eastern Division of the AAC.  UC’s win at Houston successfully got them through a potential land mind, and now the next four games are about taking care of business against lesser teams.  If they do, they’ll set up an exciting last 2 (hopefully 3 games including the AAC Championship) and an opportunity to be playing in a major bowl for the first time since 2009. 

Are We Ready to Believe?

                We thought this could be a special season for the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Last year’s 11-2 ascension seemingly came out of nowhere.  That wasn’t happening this year.  UC had a target and the look of one of the favorites in a deeper than ever American Athletic Conference.  The Bearcats were very up and down to start the year, but beat the teams they should have beat to keep their season on track.  The trip to Marshall gave a taste of what could be and then Friday night, in front of a sell out crowd at Nippert stadium the Bearcats made us believe.  The Bearcats became the first AAC team the last 3 seasons to beat UCF and in doing so put themselves firmly in the AAC conference race.  Friday night at Nippert was a celebration of Bearcat football and hopefully a return to something truly special.

                It really started a week prior.  We were waiting for this Bearcat football team to give a top performance from beginning to end.  That Saturday night in Huntington, West Virginia they delivered.  Most Bearcat fans thought Marshall would be a real test.  They went to Boise State and held Boise State to 14 points, losing by a touchdown.  They were the favorite in Conference USA.  The Bearcats dispatched with the Thundering Herd before you could even blink.  It was the kind of performance UC hasn’t really delivered despite their success the last two seasons.  Too often UC has started slow and sluggish.  This time they scored nearly every time they touched the ball running out to a 42-0 lead and never looking back.

                What I really appreciated about the Marshall performance was UC going against tendency early in the game.  Too often UC has started slow, running into stacked fronts, not pushing downfield when teams sell out to stop the run.  Against Marshall they came out and put pressure on the back of the Marshall defense.  Ridder delivered with maybe his best overall performance as a Bearcat.  UC ran out to a huge lead and the running game was as affective as always as the game went on.  That win set up Friday at Nippert, an opportunity for the Bearcats to get their first win over a ranked team in a decade (since 2009 in fact, where the Bearcats beat 3 ranked teams on their way to an undefeated season).

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                Our tailgate group has gotten smaller in recent years.  I do think the Tuberville era is a part of it as it got less fun for many to come to Nippert.  The other issue has been people moving out of town making it harder to get to the game.  This week instead of setting up our own tailgate behind Martinos where we have been tailgating for a decade, we joined up with another tailgate on The Grid.  I’ve been on The Grid a few times, but never for a full tailgate.  UC has just done a great job with it.  The place is packed and active.  The catwalk is amazing.  It was great getting to party on The Grid. 

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                The story of the first half was the Cincinnati defense in the redzone.  For a half, UCF moved the ball up and down the field.  The first drive was largely aided by penalties, but time and time again in the first half UCF moved into scoring position.  And nearly every time the Bearcat defense held.  UCF settled for a field goal on their first drive.  Then on the second drive they marched down the field again before a Cam Jefferies INT at the goal line and big return flipped the field.  In the second quarter UCF had drives of 10 plays and 8 plays end in field goals.  Their only touchdown came on a short field (12 yards) after a Ridder interception.  Though UC trailed 16 to 10 at the half, the defenses ability prevent touchdowns had kept them in the game.

                I thought the offensive gameplan was conservative and put UC at risk in the first half.  Like UCF, UC’s only first half touchdown came on a short field after forcing a turnover.  Other than that, the Bearcat offense did very little all half and seemed reluctant to challenge UCF down the field.  UC’s first two drives ended with 2 yard dump offs to Michael Warren on Third and 10 and third and 14, respectively.  On their final drive of the half UC could have at least taken a shot at the endzone with a Hail Mary, but chose to go in the locker room down 6.  It was a generally frustrating game plan from the offense, but the defense had kept UC in it by preventing touchdowns and creating the only UC touchdown drive by giving them a 16 yard field.  And it turned out, the Bearcat defense would be even better in the second half.

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                And Nippert was rocking.  The energy of the crowd was felt from kickoff until the final snap.  The students were there and loud early.  Every third down, hell almost every down, the crowd was in it, making noise and trying to help disrupt the UCF offense.  I sit in the corner of the endzone near the field and the noise on the field is always evident from that spot.  As someone who has been lucky enough to travel the country and visit some great stadiums, it’s always impressive how truly exceptional Nippert Stadium can be. 

Photo From @chadbrendel https://twitter.com/ChadBrendel/status/1180503929462951936

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                That energy was in full force in the second half, when the Bearcat defense suffocated the great UCF offense.  However, it was the offense that got things started.  The Bearcats came out aggressive in the second half completing their first two passes and quickly moving into UCF territory.  Those completions lead to some success running the football.  Ultimately the drive stalled largely because of a holding penalty, but the Bearcats kicked a field goal to get within three.  

                The Bearcat defense really took over from there.  They forced two straight three and outs where UCF lost 21 yards.  Then on their third drive of the second, Gabriel tried to throw a quick pass to the sideline and Ahmad Gardner made the play of the season to this point, stepping in front of the pass and taking it to the house.  Suddenly UC had a lead.  UCF had the ball 5 times in the third quarter.  They lost 21 yards in the first 3 possessions and threw a pick six.  They had 1 first down in the quarter, punted 4 times and were intercepted 1 time.  This might have been the single best quarter of football I’ve ever seen a Bearcat defense play.

                Then on the last play of the third quarter the truck busted free.  A couple quick cuts and Warren was into the open field.  The end of the play was particularly great as his last cuts forced to pursuing defenders to take each other out, colliding into each other.  The Bearcats then scored on the first play of the fourth quarter when Ridder found Alec Pierce in the corner of the endzone.  Just like that UC was in control. 

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                It only took the dominant week one win over Rutgers for most UC fans to realize 2009 could be an incredibly special season.  This was the week when that idea became real in 2019.  UCF made the game interesting at the end.  They had a quick touchdown drive and two point conversion to get within three.  UC got the ball back trying to run the clock out.  Twice it looked like they picked up the first down but twice the refs spotted the ball just before the sticks.  That left Fickell with a fourth down decision that I don’t really believe was a decision at all.  UC needed a few inches to ice the game.  They lined up and got those few inches.  Despite my concerns regarding the staff too often being passive and playing to tendency on offense, this is the kind of situation where they always make the right call.  They trust their guys to finish instead of putting the game in the hands of the opposing offense.  The staff has a ton of great qualities, but this is one that has consistently stood out. 

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                Weeks 4 and 5 in 2009 were less interesting than this year.  UC took care of Fresno State at home then went to Miami and beat the Redhawks for a 5^th straight season.  Five games in and the Bearcats were finished with their nonconference slate.  Similarly, the Bearcats have finished their nonconference slate this season.  From here on out, the Bearcats will be playing conference games.  They likely need to run the table to have a shot at a major, New Year’s Bowl.  In 2009 the Bearcats were facing a trip to Tampa against the 21^st ranked South Florida Bulls.   This year’s Bearcats head to Houston, a team many thought would contend in the league, one capable of scoring in a hurry.  Next week is an enormous game, particularly when it comes to winning the east.  A win and suddenly UC has a slate where they can run off some wins before the two huge games to close the season.  A win next Saturday and a Division Championship will be firmly in their sights. 

Taking Care of Business

                Saturday marked 14 years in a row the Bearcats have beaten the Miami Redhawks.  Most of those games haven’t even been close.  Miami had a stretch of games during Tuberville and the one year following Tuberville where they had their opportunities, but as the Fickell era of UC football gets rolling it has become increasingly clear Miami missed their window.  The Bearcats are likely to continue beating down the Redhawks for years to come.   Despite the slow start, ultimately, this year was no different.  The Bearcats took care of business and now get a week off before maybe the key 3 game stretch of the season. 

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                The biggest nonconference test of the season for the 2009 Bearcats also came at OSU.  Week three in 2009 the Bearcats made their way out to Corvallis, Oregon to take on the Oregon State Beavers.  The Beavers were coming off a 9-4 season (7-2 in the PAC 12).  This Beaver team would go all the way up to number 13 in the rankings by December.  It was a real test for the Bearcats, one the Bearcat passed again with flying colors.  This was the one game I was not able to attend in 2009, but I can remember exactly where I was.  I was house/dog sitting a house and partying with friends. 

                I spent the day drinking beers and ziplining into the pond with a few others who came to enjoy the weekend with me.  Honestly, if I wasn’t going to be at the game it was a perfect way to spend the lead up to the game.  The Bearcats started slow, not scoring in the first quarter.  However, the defense held Oregon State to two field goals and the Bearcats were only down 6-0 after 1.  Much as it did against Rutgers, the offense took off in the second quarter.  The Bearcats had touchdown drives on 9 plays, 80 yards, 9 plays 77 yards and 3 plays 60 yards, to take a 21-8 lead into the half. 

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                Likewise, it was a slow start for the Bearcats against the Redhawks.  If it felt like the Bearcats were going backwards for a while, it’s because they were.  The Bearcats’ first drive went for negative 13 yards and after a Miami touchdown their second drive went for -6 yards.  It’s no surprise Bearcat fans were a little anxious when Miami kicked a field goal to take a 10-0 lead.  However, after that Miami drive the defense and offense both seemed to get it together and the UC talent took over.  They held Miami scoreless the rest of the half.  UC responded to the 10-0 deficit with a long touchdown drive of their own.  The teams traded punts for a while after, but the Bearcats put the ball in the endzone to end the half.  The key play on that drive was Fickell opting to go for it on 4^th and 6 from the Miami forty.  Ridder completed an 11 yard pass to Medaris and capped off the drive with another Michael Warren TD run.  All in all 14-10 didn’t feel great, but it could have been a lot worse. 

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                After a blistering second quarter the 2009 Bearcats didn’t play a particularly clean second half against Oregon State.  The Beavers started the half with a quick touchdown drive and the Bearcat offense did very little in response.  They had a 3 and out followed by an interception then another 3 an out.  Their 3 third quarter drives totaled 48 yards.  Oregon State kicked a field goal early in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 3 (21-18).  As they had in the second quarter the Bearcat offense responded.  They immediately marched down the field for a touchdown drive stretching the lead back out to 10 with about 8 minutes left in the game.  The defense forced an interception and the offense moved the ball again before missing a field goal that would have put the Bearcats up 13.  By that time there was only 1:30 left in the game and everything was still well in hand.  The Bearcats escaped a good Oregon State team with a 10 point win in a game they mostly controlled despite playing two fairly poor quarters.  Oregon State was a PAC 10 contender and the Bearcats had proven to be clearly the better team. 

                The second half of the battle for the Victory Bell was the dominant performance Cincinnati fans have grown to expect in that game.  The Bearcats started with a touchdown drive and never really looked back.  The defense suffocated Miami for the entire second half.  The Bearcats forced a 3 and out on 3 of Miami’s 6 second half drives.  The other drives included a 4 play drive ending with a turnover on downs, a 5 play drive with one first down and then one drive where Miami moved the ball a little bit before kicking an irrelevant field goal.  The defensive dominance allowed the offense to find itself with a couple big plays.  Ridder connected with Geddis for a 51 yard TD, then Warren broke off a 73 yard touchdown run on the next UC drive.  It was 35 to 13 by the time the game entered the fourth quarter.  There was no doubt UC would be keeping the bell in Cincinnati.

                The second half performance can’t overshadow the clear issues that need to get corrected.  The offensive line has really struggled at times.  Those first few drives UC had no room to do anything.  Miami pushed the line around more than they should have been able to, forcing Warren to break tackles or make people miss in the backfield and putting Ridder under some pressure.  Additionally, Ridder continued to struggle finding receivers when his primary target is taken away.  Right before the half there was a key play where Deguara broke wide open, Ridder had time, but didn’t see him and dumped off to Warren.  Those kind of plays happen too often.  When his first read is there, Ridder can be very accurate.  He threw some great passes today, particularly the Geddis TD pass and the Deguara TD.  3 weeks in and it is still hard to know what to expect from this team going forward.  They soundly beat an inferior Miami team, but once again showed the issues that could hold them back. 

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                So the Bearcats head into a bye week with the record everyone expected.  They won both games at Nippert and won them both rather convincingly and lost to an elite Ohio State team.   They showed plenty of concerns but enough positives to remain optimistic about the season to come.  The three weeks following the bye will likely define their season.  Their final nonconference game is a road test at a solid Marshall team, picked by many to win CUSA.  Ridder and the offense struggled on the road last season and though it is unfair to hold OSU against them too much, it didn’t do anything to alleviate that concern.  The defense should be able to largely limit Marshall.  If the offense does its part they should get out of Huntington with a win, but it will be a real test. 

                That test is followed by the biggest game of the year.  The Bearcats almost certainly can’t win the conference without a home win over UCF.  Giving UCF the tiebreaker in the division likely will wrap up the division and even if it doesn’t (maybe a 3 way tie with Temple is conceivably still in play) it makes it essential for UC to win at Houston and at Memphis (in addition to holding serve home against Temple).  If UC is to be an AAC contender, they must win against UCF.  And UCF could be as good as ever.  Real tests, real opportunities.  The Bearcats took care of business against Miami and retained the Victory Bell for the fourteenth straight season.  The season will be defined by weeks to come. 

Total Mismatches

                That was disheartening.  It’s not surprising the Bearcats got run off the field by the Buckeyes.  Ohio State is one of the three most talented teams in the country and assuming Fields can be elite against top competition they are a true national title contender.  However, this game was pretty much a worst-case scenario any way you slice it.  After the blocked field goal there was never a moment you really felt the Bearcats had any chance.  The offensive and defensive lines were both dominated and there were few moments where the Bearcats really threatened.  When they actually did move the ball they made costly mistakes to keep points off the board. It was a brutal game.

                I thought the coaches set the tone for the game early and that tone was, “we’re scared to be here.”  OSU moved the ball on its first drive, but the Bearcat defense eventually got a stop.  A perfect punt pinned Cincinnati back at the one.  The coaches sent the offense on the field and literally wasted a play.  They lined up in an odd, compact formation that had the entire OSU team in middle field.  From that formation they had Ridder sneak for no gain.  What was the best case scenario for that play?  Two yards up the middle?  You’re still handing the ball off in your endzone or passing from your own end zone on 2^nd down.  First down is your friend.  It’s how you protect against the safety, by keeping them off balance.  Everyone knew a sneak was coming.  The play call basically ensured UC would give the ball back to OSU where OSU was positioned to get a TD.  That’s exactly what happened.  That scared call exemplified the play all game long.

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                The Bearcats’ 2009 week two matchup could not have been any more of a polar opposite.  The Bearcats returned home to Nippert to take on Southeast Missouri State.  After the beating UC laid on Rutgers, everyone was sure this was a “pick your score,” type game.  The Bearcats wound up picking 70-3.  Their first game had put the Bearcats in the top 25 (number 23).  UC did everything you’d expect in their second game in rolling Southeast Missouri State.  I don’t have much more to say about it.  Two games in and the sky was the limit for the 2009 Bearcats.

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                The bottom line of this game was Cincinnati’s two glaring weaknesses were exposed against superior talent…inexperience on the offensive and defensive lines.  The Bearcat offensive line was pushed around all game and the dominant OSU defensive line gave them no moments of reprieve.  UC couldn’t run the ball and Ridder was under constant duress, particularly when OSU brought any pressure at all.  The defensive line really felt the loss of Broughton and Copeland, two NFL type defensive tackles.  OSU pushed around a talented, young defensive line that simply was out of its depth.  Cincinnati could not overcome those two problem areas. 

                I know they gave up 42 points, but I wasn’t altogether discouraged by the defensive performance.  They had their moments. They got a key stop on the first drive and forced a huge turnover on downs to keep UC in the game early.  I thought you saw the talent at times making an elite Ohio State offense work.  Fields fit the balls into the windows that were there and the defensive line didn’t get enough pressure which opened things up, but overall I thought the defense wasn’t so bad…they were just up against a behemoth.  If the offense gave UC anything, it’s likely a 31-17 type game…not the 42-0 bloodbath we saw.

                What I saw from the offense concerns me, even though Ohio State is the type of elite defense UC won’t see again this season.  Last season the Bearcat offense was mostly good against teams with lesser defensive talent.  They wore teams down with the run and Ridder made plays with his feet and passing down the field.  For the most part they were also exceptional on third down.  However, twice last year it really stood out to me that there wasn’t a plan B.  The UC offense really struggled against above average defenses.  Temple absolutely shut UC down in the second half, as did UCF. UC just couldn’t move the ball or pick up key third downs against the better competition. 

                I know Ohio State is a different level, but I thought the offenses lack of creativity and versatility really stood out against the Buckeyes.  Even lesser talented teams often find ways to create matchups and move the ball against top teams, but that wasn’t the case.  UC wasn’t able to pound the ball on the ground and showed little ingenuity in creating favorable matchups.  This doesn’t have to be the case all year and Ohio State is an outlier matchup for UC.  I doubt UC gets shutout again (and wouldn’t have been shutout here except for two turnovers near the goal line and a blocked FG), but a team like UCF doesn’t have to shut UC out to win.  UC is going to have to be flexible in how they attack the better teams on the schedule.  It was an issue last year, one that I don’t feel any better about after the game against Ohio State. 

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                The Bearcats and Buckeyes have played 6 times since 1999 with the Buckeyes winning all six.  That’s not surprising.  Five of the games were in Columbus.  The Buckeyes are an elite program.  The one game in Cincinnati was not surprisingly the closest despite it being a National Championship Buckeye team.  It’s hard to beat elite programs on their home field.  I’d love to get one into Nippert one day, but until then these are always going to be incredible uphill battles.

                It’s odd that the three UC teams that gave the Buckeyes their best games were probably the three worst Bearcat teams to face them.  Here’s how I’d rank the UC teams that played Ohio State:

1.       2006

2.       2019

3.       2004

4.       2002

5.       2014

6.       1999

You can quibble with the order if you want, but I think that is relatively fair.  The teams that faired the best against the Buckeyes were the 2002, 1999 and 2014.  I think there were a few reasons for that.  I think it’s telling that the three worst performances for UC were with coaches who formerly coached for the Buckeyes.  I don’t think Dantonio or Fickell ever seemed particularly invested in the idea that UC could compete in those games.  They were conservative, they didn’t try to create advantageous matchups or big plays the way they would need to win those games.  Compare that to the three other games UC played against OSU.

        The 2014 Bearcats had an inflated record due to playing a fairly weak schedule, but they had one really strong thing going for them…elite collegiate wide receivers.  The UC staff really took advantage of this and made the game against OSU very interesting for 3 quarters.  This was exemplified by UC repeatedly taking shots down field to Chris Moore, who delivered with 3 catches for 221 yards, all going for touchdowns.  The biggest play of the game was an absurd offensive pass interference call against UC when the OSU defender basically tackled the UC receiver who had him beat.  Everything changed after that and OSU ran away in the 4^th quarter, but UC made it interesting with an aggressive attitude.  (UC also had a TD called back on an illegal man downfield call which while technically correct is almost never called when the lineman is only a couple yards past the line of scrimmage). 

        1999 is probably the forgotten UC v. Ohio State game.  I remember how excited I was when I found out I was going to that game.  OSU still had the old, temporary bleachers at the Horseshoe and UC fans were stuffed down there.  1999 might be the weirdest season I can remember as a Bearcat fan.  It was a bad year.  The Bearcats finished 3-8.  They dominated Kent State in week one, but then week two lost to then Division 1AA Troy State (now in the FBS and going by Troy).  They followed that up with the craziest win of my lifetime (not the best or craziest game mind you) beating Ron Dayne’s eventual big ten champion and Rose Bowl champion Wisconsin team.  The next week, UC went to OSU. 

        The Bearcats came out fast.  They went out to a 10-3 lead, spreading the field and letting Kenner pick his targets.  UC was just into OSU territory when they came out in 5 wide.  I remember saying to the fans around me that the middle is wide open for a QB draw, something Minter liked to run out of the five wide.  Sure enough, UC ran it and Kenner took it the distance for a TD to put the Bearcats up 17-3.  At that point the temporary bleachers were shaking as UC fans were going nuts.  UC got the ball back late in the 2^nd quarter and put themselves in field goal range.  They missed the FG which would have made it 20-3 (and likely would have gone to the half at that score).  Instead OSU got a short field, scored a TD and cut the lead to 17-10 at the half.  The Bearcats continued to move the ball in the second half, putting up over 500 yards of offense on the game, but didn’t finish any drives.  They lost 34-20.  That Bearcat team would go winless in CUSA losing 4 one possession games and 2 two possession games.  Their only other win was over Miami (OH). 

        Then there was 2002.  The only time Ohio State dared to come to Cincinnati and not coincidentally the closest UC came to beating the Buckeyes.  Probably the biggest thing that UC team had going for it was NFL players on the defensive line.  Antwan Peek in particular was in the backfield all game and was a disruptive force against the OSU offense.  That defense also featured a young Trent Cole.  Though UC broke a couple of runs, they knew they couldn’t sustain drives that way and often spread UC out allowing Geno to find holes.  Though only a sophomore, Geno threw 52 times that day and drove UC into position to win the game.  He threw two catchable balls in the endzone on the final drive that Olinger and Murray failed to bring in.  That was that.  UC missed its chance in Cincinnati, and the Buckeyes went on the win the national championship. 

        It’s notable that UC didn’t get the chance to play the Buckeyes while at its peak.  From 2007-2012 the Bearcats won 4 conference championships in a BCS conference (the Big East).  That conference often finished ahead of the Big 10 in sagarin’s conference strength measure.  It was a fluke of timing, but still quite disappointing that the best teams UC had to offer weren’t the ones that had the chance to challenge the Buckeyes. 

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        Where does the season go from here?  We knew last year was a gift.  UC was ahead of schedule in developing its defense and the benefitted from a light, manageable schedule.  This year the schedule was more daunting and while UC has a ton of experience back, there were big experience holes on offensive and defensive lines.  Additionally, injuries really hurt two of UC’s biggest strengths: 1. the defensive backfield’s potential to be dominant with Wiggins’ flexibility and skill; and 2. depth and versatility at running back.  Ohio State was a singular force that punished UC for those issues.  No team on the schedule will be able to do so to that degree, but UC still needs to find answers to how it will stop the stronger offenses on the schedule and how it will move the ball against competent defenses.  If they develop answers to those questions this can still be a great season that builds on last year…with a real chance to win the conference.  If not we’re likely looking at a good team that just wasn’t quite there yet.   It is essential that UC responds this week against Miami before going to a bye week that sets up the key stretch of the season.