The last two years the Cincinnati Bearcats have not been picked to finish very high in the Big East Conference. The 2006 Bearcats were picked near the bottom of the Big East conference by every major publication. They were coming off of a 4 win season, and though returning nearly every player it was clearly going to be a year that would say much for the future of the program. That Bearcat team ended up losing 4 road games to top ten teams, but those games clearly strengthened the cats. They only lost one other game that season (early in the year to Pitt), and ended up beating number 6 Rutgers on a Saturday night in Nippert. The young Bearcats had come a long way from 4-7 and the future looked promising.
Before the Bearcats bowl game that season Mark Dantonio left to take the head coaching job at Michigan State. The Bearcats called on Brian Kelly to build on what Dantonio had done. Kelly started changing the offense and lead the Bearcats to a victory over Western Michigan in the inaugural international bowl. The Bearcats brought back a large portion of the team, and Kelly began to significantly change how they played the game.
Kelly shifted the aggressive, man to man, blitzing defense that Dantonio had used with much success at UC into a zone defense which he said would allow the players to see the ball better, make plays, and not give up big plays. The offense had the biggest shift. He asked the offensive lineman to slim down so they could play faster and move. The protections and blocking schemes were much more complicated. The offense went from a pound it out I formation to a spread offense passing attack. The combination of a more dynamic offense, and an experienced, skilled defense led the Bearcats to a 10 win season, their first since the 1960s. With many of the key players back the Bearcats hope to capitalize this season.
On Defense:
The defense will be the key once again to the Bearcats and this defense should be stellar. The Bearcats return two potential first team all Americans in Mike Mickens at CB and Terrill Byrd at DT. Byrd and Mickens anchor an experience defense which gave opposing offenses fits all last season.
The Bearcats only ranked 23rd in Total defense national last season, thanks to giving up a large number of passing yards, but that ranking does not begin to tell the entire story. The pass defense was actually a large strength of UC’s defense not only making it difficult for defenses to score, but also taking the ball away and giving the Bearcats offense great opportunities to put up points.
There are four major reasons the defensive numbers may not be a full reflection of how good this defensive really was:
1. Cincinnati played fast offensively. Brian Kelly’s Bearcats wanted to play a quick tempo. They would go know huddle, they would to the line quickly and they would run their play. They wanted to dictate tempo for the opposition. Because of the tempo UC often played at they tended to run more plays than say a Mark Dantonio coached Bearcat team would.
2. The Bearcats threw the ball a bunch. When you throw the ball a lot there are more stoppages of the clock and thus less clock running off. This also increases the number of plays that will be run in a game.
4. The Bearcat run defense was stalwart. Throw out the WVU and Pitt games and no other team was able to establish a running attack against UC. This ability to shut down the run forced other teams to throw the ball.
5. The Bearcats often played with the lead. The Bearcats opened up several big leads throughout the year and forced teams to throw the ball to catch up. With the lead the Bearcats often allowed some underneath throws and baiting the other teams into many mistakes. Also with the other team throwing a bunch that would extend the game and cause more plays to be run.
I would say you can get a more accurate view of the Bearcat pass defense by considering the pressure they put on quarterbacks (they ranked 8th in the country in sacks), their ability to make it hard to complete passes for significant yardage (they ranked 34 in pass efficiency defense), and their ability to intercept the football (they ranked first in turnovers gained. The Bearcats also ranked number 19 in run defense and most importantly they ranked 13 in scoring defense. Their ranking in scoring defense is particularly impressive given the fact that they often extended games by running so many plays.
Defensive Outlook for 2008
The Biggest concerns for the Bearcats come from having to replace both starting safeties, particularly Haruki Nakurmura and both starting defensive ends. The strength at the Bearcats other positions should allow them to do so. Terrill Byrd and Adam Hoppel are as good a set of defensive tackles as there are in the Big East, maybe the country. Their ability will really allow the inexperienced ends a chance to rush the quarterback. There is also a ton of optimism concerning the Bearcat defensive ends this season. In is transfer Alex Daniels from Minnesota who should have the athleticism and skill set to be a force early on. Lamont Nelms played a significant amount at defensive end last season and was very effective. Conner Barwin and Craig Carey have made the switch from offense to defensive end and their athleticism should offer a different look from the end position. The experience the Bearcats have at Linebacker, and the skill they possess at CB should allow the safeties great opportunities to make plays. The Bearcats expect to give All Conference cornerback DeAngelo Smith ample time at safety this season in order to get he, All American CB Mike Mickens, and OSU transfer Brandon Underwood on the field as much as possible. This is an even more experienced and skilled defense than the Bearcats had last season. Simply put the 2008 Bearcat defense should be even better than the 2007 version.
Offense
Perhaps the biggest strides this Bearcat team will make should be with the offensive line. Last season the offensive line was asked to play a completely different brand of football than they had been brought here to play. They were asked to slim down, to play fest, to learn different blocking schemes and get comfortable blocking in a more athletic, faster offense. This season the offensive line should be far ahead of where they were at this time last year. This should allow for whoever the UC QB is to have more time to throw the football and allow the younger, more athletic Bearcat running backs a chance to make more plays.
The wide receivers should once again be a major strength of this game. Dominick Goodman continued to catch about everything thrown his way last season, making difficult catches look easy. He is an ideal possession receiver with a knack for catching important passes. Last season freshman Marcus Barnett offered the explosiveness the cats thought they might be missing from Derek Stewart. Now a sophomore there is little reason to suspect he cannot continue to produce. Marty Gilyard will once again play a big role, and the buzz around UC was that Charlie Howard had a terrific spring and will likely make an impact this season. The Bearcats also get Tight End Kazeem Alli back after a year off due to injury. Alli showed great promise to years ago, making some big catches in Mark Dantonio’s system. The UC running backs are athletic and should all be able to catch passes and make plays out of the backfield.
UC’s biggest question on offense is the Quarterback position. Ben Mauk still waits hoping to get another chance to lead the Bearcats to a Big East title. Without Ben Mauk someone is going to have to step up and deliver. Dustin Grutza is looking like the favorite. The fifth year senior has plenty of experience and put up good numbers in limited action last season. He has a tendency to make slow decisions and not go throw his progressions quickly, but is a very accurate passer. If he can take his experience and make the decision the offense should be very good again this season.
Bearcats Projections
With Ben Mauk I believe this team is a Big East title contender from day 1. I believe they are a team that can go down to Norman and take down the Sooners. They are that good. Without Mauk every question just looms a little larger. We are first going to take a look at game by game projections without Ben Mauk (I’m assuming Dustin Grutza will be the QB).
Game by Game without Mauk
Thursday August 28 vs. Eastern Michigan- This is a tune-up for the Cats. The Defense will be dominant, the offense will put up big numbers, the backups will get time to play. WIN
Saturday September 6 @ Oklahoma- Talk about a big time out of conference battle. The Sooners never lose at home. They are returning an experienced team that was probably going to be a preseason national title favorite until their dismantling at the hands of West Virginia last season. The Bearcats hope Grutza can lead them to victory. The defense should make this a game, but ultimately I do not think the offense can do enough. LOSS
Saturday September 20 vs. Miami (OH) - Another game the Bearcats should be able to clean up in. Grutza dominated the Redhawks last year in Miami. The players around Grutza should be better this season. I see no reason for this to be a ball game. WIN
Saturday September 27 vs. Akron- Another MAC team, another win. WIN
Friday October 3 @ Marshall - UC controlled the game against Marshall last season at home. This year they take their act to the road. Marshall could be better this season, they are often tough in Huntington. Ultimately the Bearcats pull away. WIN
Saturday October 11 vs. Rutgers- Rutgers comes back to Cincinnati for the first time since UC ended their perfect season and National Title hopes. It’s the second straight year this will be UC’s Big East opener. The Cats prevailed last year and will prevail again at home. WIN
Saturday October 25 @ Connecticut - Two weeks to prepare, and what I think is an ideal matchup for UC. UConn needs to run the ball to be successful, they will not run it on UC. As long as UC takes care of the ball I see this as another victory. WIN
Saturday October 30 vs. USF - Probably UC’s most enticing home game. USF should be very good again. They are going to be among the favorites in the conference. UC and USF played a whale of a game last season (with one of the craziest first quarters of football I have ever witnessed). UC held on breaking up a pass in the end zone on the games last play. This game is at home, so I like UC’s chances. I would say this one is more of a tossup, but I am leaning towards the Bearcats. Leaning Towards WIN
Saturday November 8 @ West Virginia - UC has just not solved WVU. Is this the year the defense can both limit the big plays and stop the consistent 5-7 yard runs? Two years ago UC made it hard for WVU to consistently run the ball, but gave up a ton of big plays (Oklahoma had a similar issue in the bowl game). Last season UC limited their big plays, but could not stopped the sustained drives. West Virginia when clicking is nearly and impossible offense to solve. By this time their defense should have gained experience as well. I think WVU has to be the favorite to win the Big East and a favorite to make the national title. Loss
Friday November 14 @ Louisville- I want this game. The Bearcats need this game and yet this game really scares me. Louisville still has talent, but without Brian Brohm I think the Bearcat defense should be able to limit what Louisville can do. If Grutza and the offense hold their own the Bearcats should win… Should… (last season for about 1 hour UC held the nations longest winning streak… LSU lost to Kentucky, but an hour later Louisville beat UC… it still pains me… I want this game) Leaning Towards WIN
Saturday November 22 vs. Pittsburgh- It’s time. It’s time to beat Pittsburgh. I’ll get into Pittsburgh in more depth when I do my Big East preview… but basically I just do not think they have proven enough to be a conference favorite at this point. I know they have had UC’s number, but this is UC’s best team ever…the game is in Cincinnati. WIN
Saturday November 29 vs. Syracuse- The worst team in the conference on senior night. WIN
December 6 @ Hawaii- I am still furious the Bearcats are playing this game. On my NCAA Football 2009 dynasty I removed it from the season on general principal. They do not deserve a trip from anyone. Last time we went down there was probably the most ridiculous game I ever watched. I was furious. I know it could be good for the program, I know it makes UC the only team in the country to schedule 3 BCS teams from the prior season, but I do not want to play it. That being said, I’ll take some satisfaction in stomping them to pieces. WIN … I hope 125-0
Without Mauk I have the Bearcat’s win range of records for the regular season as 9-4 to 11-2. I am going to settle on 10-3. That would be 10-3, 5-2 in the Big East…which I am projecting would be a tie for second place finish and a trip to either the Gator Bowl, or Car Care Bowl (one hopes). The upside I have for a Grutza led team is 11-2 (6-1)…and probably missing out on a BCS bowl… but who knows. I love this team. I love the defense and think the potential of the offense is great.
Game by Game with Mauk
Thursday August 28 vs. Eastern Michigan- Once again a tune-up for the Cats. The Defense will be dominant, the offense will put up big numbers, the backups will get time to play. WIN
The first game where Mauk makes a difference comes in week 2. The UC offense should be better already than they were at any point the prior season. I think the defense is better than they were last season. It will be hot… Oklahoma will be ready for UC and they are also very very good. They do not lose at home very often. I love the opportunity. I think the cats can do it. I think we can spread them out and make their defense work (they struggled with some spread teams last year like Texas Tech and WVU). Ultimately I think it might be too much to ask, but the cans can certainly win this game. Leaning towards LOSS
Saturday September 20 vs. Miami (OH) - Another game the Bearcats should be able to clean up in. Mauk plays this year, Miami cries again, everyone goes home happy. WIN
Saturday September 27 vs. Akron- Another MAC team, another win. WIN
Friday October 3 @ Marshall - UC controlled the game against Marshall last season at home. This year they take their act to the road. Marshall could be better this season, they are often tough in Huntington. Ultimately the Bearcats pull away. WIN
Saturday October 11 vs. Rutgers- Rutgers comes back to Cincinnati for the first time since UC ended their perfect season and National Title hopes. It’s the second straight year this will be UC’s Big East opener. The Cats prevailed last year and will prevail again at home. WIN
Saturday October 25 @ Connecticut - Two weeks to prepare, and what I think is an ideal matchup for UC. UConn needs to run the ball to be successful, they will not run it on UC. As long as UC takes care of the ball I see this as another victory. WIN
Saturday October 30 vs. USF - Probably UC’s most enticing home game. With Mauk I just don’t see UC losing at home this year. It’s possible USF is better than I think, but I just see UC as the clear number two with Mauk back. WIN (scares me some)
Saturday November 8 @ West Virginia - UC has just not solved WVU. Is this the year the defense can both limit the big plays and stop the consistent 5-7 yard runs? Two years ago UC made it hard for WVU to consistently run the ball, but gave up a ton of big plays (Oklahoma had a similar issue in the bowl game). Last season UC limited their big plays, but could not stopped the sustained drives. West Virginia when clicking is nearly and impossible offense to solve. That being said, Mauk and UC’s offense (which by the end of the season I think would be the most prolific in UC history) should be ready to test that WVU defense. I think WVU has to be the favorite to win the Big East and a favorite to make the national title. It’s why it is hard for me to pick UC in this game, and much as I want to. Leaning Toward Loss
Friday November 14 @ Louisville- With Mauk I think the offense goes down and scores a bunch on Louisville. I think our defense is better suited to go against Cantwell than the supremely talent Brohm (who isn’t?). WIN (scares me some)
Saturday November 22 vs. Pittsburgh- Not sold on Pittsburgh. WIN
Saturday November 29 vs. Syracuse- The worst team in the conference on senior night. WIN
December 6 @ Hawaii- Ok with Mauk, I have to change my prediction. WIN … I hope 250-0
My range for Bearcat record with Ben Mauk as QB is 10-3 to 12-0. Let me stipulate a few things. First I do not think UC is going 12-0. They are in my range criteria because I really think the Bearcats can win @ WVU and @ Oklahoma, and likely will beat both U of L and USF. I don’t see us doing all four of those things. I also do not see us losing two games to teams we should beat in the conference this year. I think the defense and offense will be too good for that.
The Bearcats also benefit from playing all of the other teams challenging them in the conference (throwing out WVU) at home. USF, Pittsburgh and Rutgers are all scary teams, but all come to Nippert. My ultimate prediction for UC this season is 11-2 (6-1). That’s a hell of a season. Heck if the game we steal is against WVU, that could mean I Big East title and BCS bid. UC has a chance for great things this season. My full Big East football preview is around the corner. Until that time… OHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHH OH OH OH OH UC!!! Go Bearcats!
No comments:
Post a Comment