As we look at my second bracket things are really starting to take shape. The list of teams I had on the bubble has been dramatically reduced. I have moved Memphis, UAB, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Dayton and St Louis to the out list...none of those teams are going to be making the NCAA tournament. I have added Illinois, Georgia Tech and San Diego State to LOCK status. I think they are in the NCAA tournament. Also...
Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:
Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.
I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.
Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.
A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.
Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Butler
13. Murray State
5. Georgetown
12. Utah State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Richmond
10. Illinois
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Gonzaga
11. Cal
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame
4. Temple
13. Akron
5. Michigan State
12. Florida
2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. Siena
5. BYU
12. Washington
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Minnesota
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Tennessee
13. Houston
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech
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