It's time to take a look at my final bracket which unfortunately I have to put out before all the games have been played. As of right now my four 1 seeds are (in this order):
Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
WVU
The top three will stay exactly as is no matter what happens today. WVU will certainly be the 4th 1 seed if Duke loses, but I think they should be if Duke wins. WVU has 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1. WVU is 7-4 in true road games, Duke is 5-5. Their numbers against the top 50 are similar but again WVU's games against the top 50 came against better teams than Duke's. To me WVU clearly has the strong resume.
My number 2 seeds are as follows (in this order):
Duke
Ohio State
Kansas State
Villanova
There is a big dropoff between Kansas State and Villanova. There are a bunch of teams with very similar resumes Villanova that could very well get the last 2 seed instead. The forth 2 seed will be a difficult decision (Pitt would be a likely candidate to take their spot).
I will say this has been a very difficult year to find tournament caliber at large teams. I have Minnesota and Illinois in where I have seen many of them either on the edge or out. These teams actually have quality wins over tournament teams...something really lacking from the resumes of UTEP, Cal, Mississippi State and Utah State... and something Florida, VT, and Seton Hall do not have to that level. Judging by who they beat I don't really understand how there is any question that Illinois and Minnesota should be in over all of those teams. (but if I was shown to be wrong...well I wouldn't be shocked)
So that being said I have three spots open... and they will come down to these eight teams:
Cal
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Utah State
Seton Hall
Florida
William and Mary
UTEP
Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long. Their best wins are over Memphis and UAB... to me that is not an NCAA tournament team. I would not be surprised if I am wrong. I would not be surprised if they got in, but to me they have not demonstrated they are an NCAA team.
I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams. William and Mary has true road wins over Wake Forest and Minnesota (in their limited opportunities). That is strong. In a normal year they would not stand a chance. I think it would be cool if they were rewarded over mediocre teams like Cal and Mississippi State. Cal has 1 win over a tournament team this year. Mississippi State has not been much better.
I feel like I could be wrong on any of my last three and still be fine with the job the committee did. If they do not put Minnesota or Illinois in the tournament I think they will be going against their stated criteria of playing and beating tournament teams. That's why I am fairly confident those teams will get in.
Anyways..this is the least sure I have ever been when predicting the bracket and it is definitely because of the relative weakness at the end of the bracket.
A few procedural things before I show my final bracket. I had to swap Texas and Florida State on the S curve so that Texas could not draw Kansas in the second round and so that Florida State would not play Clemson in round 1. I swapped Texas A&M and Wake Forest to avoid multiple bracket issues. In my bracket today ND was the last 9 seed and Georgia Tech was the top 10 seed. I swapped them to avoid ND getting WVU in the second round and Georgia Tech drawing Duke in round 2. Lastly I swapped Pitt and New Mexico to avoid a Pitt/Villanova sweet 16 match-up. This is not a mandatory change by bracketing rules, but the committee does its best to avoid having high seeds from the same conference on the same side of a region. It was an easy switch so I made it.
That being said here is my final bracket (again Conference Champions in BOLD):
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Purdue
13. Houston
5. Tennessee
12. Murray State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Gonzaga
10. Illinois
3. New Mexico
14. Montana
6. Richmond
11. Illinois
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. West Virginia
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Georgia Tech
4. Temple
13. Ohio
5. Michigan State
12. Virginia Tech
2. Duke
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State
5. BYU
12. Mississippi State
2. Ohio State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. Georgetown
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Cal
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Butler
13. Siena
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Kansas State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Washington
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Championship Saturday 2:30 Bracket
As we look at my second bracket things are really starting to take shape. The list of teams I had on the bubble has been dramatically reduced. I have moved Memphis, UAB, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Dayton and St Louis to the out list...none of those teams are going to be making the NCAA tournament. I have added Illinois, Georgia Tech and San Diego State to LOCK status. I think they are in the NCAA tournament. Also...
Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:
Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.
I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.
Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.
A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.
Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Butler
13. Murray State
5. Georgetown
12. Utah State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Richmond
10. Illinois
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Gonzaga
11. Cal
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame
4. Temple
13. Akron
5. Michigan State
12. Florida
2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. Siena
5. BYU
12. Washington
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Minnesota
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Tennessee
13. Houston
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech
Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:
Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.
I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.
Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.
A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.
Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Butler
13. Murray State
5. Georgetown
12. Utah State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Richmond
10. Illinois
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Gonzaga
11. Cal
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame
4. Temple
13. Akron
5. Michigan State
12. Florida
2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. Siena
5. BYU
12. Washington
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Minnesota
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Tennessee
13. Houston
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Bearcatmark's First Mock Bracket
For the purpose of this bracket I have assumed the regular season Conference Champion is going to win every conference that has not been decided. Now this is obviously not likely to be the case, but it gives me UTEP and Cal as automatic birth teams and not last four in bubble status... If those teams don't win their conference they currently sit just above Minnesota and Memphis who are my last two teams in.
With their win over Seton Hall yesterday I have moved Notre Dame to Lock Status. I made a few adjustments to avoid same conference teams playing in the first two rounds. I switched Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, Illinois and San Diego State,Virginia Tech and St Mary's, Clemson and UNLV, Texas and Richmond, as well as Minnesota and Memphis (yes I had to do a ton of procedure bumping... i hope my final brackets don't come out like this.)
My Last Four In Are:
UTEP
Cal
Minnesota
Memphis
My First Four Out Are
Seton Hall (they are going to have to get really lucky to get in... as in everyone behind them falters and teams like Memphis/Minnesota lose early in their conference tournaments)
Arizona State
Washington
Ole Miss
(I actually have Utah State above Ole Miss, but I have them with an Automatic Birth at this point. Were they to lose in the conference finals they'd probably stand a decent shot at a bid)
My other 6 teams with a shot still go in this order at this time:
Cincinnati (I am getting more and more confident that a win tonight gets them on the edge...lets start rooting for everyone above to falter early in their conference tournaments)
St Louis
Dayton
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
UAB
All teams that have clinched their conference title are in bold.
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Wintrhop
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
4. BYU
13. Utah State
5. Butler
12. Cornell
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Texas
10. Florida
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Georgetown
11. San Diego State
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Boston U
8. Northern Iowa
9. St Mary's
4. Temple
13. Kent State
5. Michigan State
12. Old Dominion
2. Ohio State
15. East Tennessee State
7. Wake Forest
10. Louisivlle
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Maryland
11. Cal
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. UNLV
9. Florida State
4. Tennessee
13. Siena
5. Baylor
12. Minnesota
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Richmond
10. Notre Dame
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Gonzaga
11. Illinois
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Missouri
9. Virginia Tech
4. Wisconsin
13. Murray State
5. Xavier
12. Memphis
2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Oklahoma State
11. UTEP
With their win over Seton Hall yesterday I have moved Notre Dame to Lock Status. I made a few adjustments to avoid same conference teams playing in the first two rounds. I switched Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, Illinois and San Diego State,Virginia Tech and St Mary's, Clemson and UNLV, Texas and Richmond, as well as Minnesota and Memphis (yes I had to do a ton of procedure bumping... i hope my final brackets don't come out like this.)
My Last Four In Are:
UTEP
Cal
Minnesota
Memphis
My First Four Out Are
Seton Hall (they are going to have to get really lucky to get in... as in everyone behind them falters and teams like Memphis/Minnesota lose early in their conference tournaments)
Arizona State
Washington
Ole Miss
(I actually have Utah State above Ole Miss, but I have them with an Automatic Birth at this point. Were they to lose in the conference finals they'd probably stand a decent shot at a bid)
My other 6 teams with a shot still go in this order at this time:
Cincinnati (I am getting more and more confident that a win tonight gets them on the edge...lets start rooting for everyone above to falter early in their conference tournaments)
St Louis
Dayton
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
UAB
All teams that have clinched their conference title are in bold.
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Wintrhop
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
4. BYU
13. Utah State
5. Butler
12. Cornell
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Texas
10. Florida
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Georgetown
11. San Diego State
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Boston U
8. Northern Iowa
9. St Mary's
4. Temple
13. Kent State
5. Michigan State
12. Old Dominion
2. Ohio State
15. East Tennessee State
7. Wake Forest
10. Louisivlle
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Maryland
11. Cal
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. UNLV
9. Florida State
4. Tennessee
13. Siena
5. Baylor
12. Minnesota
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Richmond
10. Notre Dame
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Gonzaga
11. Illinois
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Missouri
9. Virginia Tech
4. Wisconsin
13. Murray State
5. Xavier
12. Memphis
2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Oklahoma State
11. UTEP
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Championship Week Bubble Look
Time to take my second major look at the bubble. St Mary's eliminated all doubt with their route of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament finals. They now have an automatic birth and have lowered the number of bubble spots by one. In good news for bubble teams Butler and Northern Iowa won their conference tournaments. Those teams were getting in to the big dance either way and a loss would have lowered the spots for potential bubble teams. Old Dominion and Cornell also earned automatic bids...neither were probably serious bubble teams, but they are no longer in any bubble discussion.
From last week I have moved 6 teams from on the bubble to in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens from here forward. I have also eliminated four teams from bubble discussion (what you will notice about all those teams is their seasons are over and they have no way to add to their resume). I've added some teams to the bubble discussion that I missed on my first quick look through last week. Now that I have had more time to look things over and evaluate this is a far better look.
As of right now my cutoff is Minnesota (of course that assumes UTEP wins CUSA and Cal wins the Pac Ten, Xavier/Temple/Richmond win the A10, and New Mexico/UNLV/BYU win the Mountain West...otherwise the bubble certainly shrinks.
Also it is important to note that some of the teams I have eliminated may currently have and may finish with better resume's than some of the teams I have in the discussion and on the bubble. The reason teams that may be below them are still on the bubble is that those teams on the bubble have opportunities to improve their resume. I may put out my first bracket today, but I'll probably wait until later in the week.
Teams that have moved from bubble to in:
Clemson- Clemson has played themselves into tournament lock status. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 vs. RPI 26-50. They have beaten Butler and Maryland, swept Florida State and taken down GT. All that plus finishing over .500 in the ACC...they are in.
UNLV- The Rebels will be in the NCAA tournament. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. With a stronger bubble they may be close to the edge, but not this year. They will be dancing.
Louisville- The second win over Syracuse was just what the doctor ordered to get Louisville into Lock Status. At this point they are just playing for seed (and given the nature of the Big East tournament depending on how they do there is a huge range of where they could be seeded). The Cardinals are now 2-5 against the RPI top 25, but both of those wins came against number 1 seed lock Syracuse. Now Louisville's issue is those two victories are their only top 50 wins...and in another year that could be a huge issue...but at this point... with them getting 11 wins in the number 1 RPI conference I cannot see the Cardinals getting left out.
Marquette- I think the Golden Eagles moved to lock status with their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette finished Big East play with 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 1-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville. Marquette has two unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Florida State- By beating Miami and Wake Forest last week Florida State has played their way into the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 10-6. They have four top 50 victories...sweeping bubble team Georgia Tech and getting wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech- I hate the fact that I am saying this but Virginia Tech is a lock at this point. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. Still the Hokies will get in (and with the weakness of the bubble probably should get in), because they went 10-6 in ACC play. And though the Hokies are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 they are 3-1 against RPI 26-50 beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and on the road against fellow bubble team GT.
The Bubble As of Noon- Wednesday
Notre Dame- Sweeping UCONN and Marquette last week probably put the Fighting Irish in the dance. Notre Dame finished the regular season by winning four straight games three of which were against teams that will be dancing in Marquette, Pitt, and Georgetown. Notre Dame also has a great win over West Virginia. Their 3-2 record against the RPI top 25 is going to look really good on selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech hurt themselves by not getting to .500 in ACC play, but despite that they could still find themselves in the field. To their credit the Yellow Jackets have 4 top 50 wins which include a win over possible #1 seed Duke, and wins over NCAA tournament teams Siena, Clemson and Wake Forest. Their opening round game against fading North Carolina probably is a must win game. They can secure a win by beating Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, but even a close loss will likely be good enough.
Florida- Florida could have moved to lock status with a win over Kentucky (or even Vandy) last week. As it is they are in relatively good shape simply because of the other teams behind them not having much to celebrate. To date Florida is only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). Looking at the SEC tournament Florida at the very least needs to make the SEC semi finals. Making the semis will keep them in the discussion...if they can manage to make the finals they'll be dancing for sure.
Illinois- Illinois could end up giving the committee headaches this Sunday. They sit at 75 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-4 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Very few teams manage to get 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Illinois draws Wisconsin one more time in their first Big Ten tournament game... a win will get the Illini in the field. A loss and they will be teetering on the edge.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. They won the games they needed to last week to keep themselves in position. They likely will need two wins in the Conference tournament to get in...They have a first round match-up with Colorado State which they cannot afford to lose and then get another shot at New Mexico. A win over New Mexico should get them in the field.
UTEP- One of three Conference USA teams hoping to find a way in the tournament. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having won the outright conference championship. They are only 3-1 against the RPI top 50 sweeping UAB and beating Memphis. They have run off 14 straight wins which will really help them. I think at this point UTEP will probably be dancing so long as they make the finals of the CUSA tournament... but it strikes me that their only big wins are over teams that could very likely not be dancing.
Seton Hall- In getting to .500 in conference play Seton Hall did exactly what they needed to last week. They held on for a big win against Providence last night and now may have a chance to play their way into the field against Notre Dame. A win puts Seton Hall firmly on the bubble (I don't think they can get in with a loss). If they can manage to follow that up with a victory over Pitt they will probably be dancing. Seton Hall is only 3-8 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. Of their losses 7 came against teams in the RPI top 15.
Cal- For the record Cal still has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 20 which would make them the highest RPI team ever left out if they do not make it(Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I do not think they deserve it Their resume simply does not hold up. The PAC Ten SHOULD be a one bid league and I really hope the selection committee does their job in scrutinizing it. If teams from the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, Mountain West...etc had these resume's they would not be in the discussion. They are ahead of Washington and Arizona State (who both have two wins over the RPI top 50) because they finished alone in first place.
Minnesota- And to think...last week I did not think there was as shot Minnesota would be dancing. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and those are three very high quality wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). The thrashing they received from Michigan looks bad, but they managed to recover and get to .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Penn State is a must...then they'll have a shot to really impress by beating Michigan State.
Memphis- They have two top 50 wins right now... both against a UAB team that will almost assuredly not be dancing without winning the CUSA tournament. Could Memphis getting a third win over UAB and making the finals of the Conference USA tournament be enough? I personally doubt it, but if none of the other bubble teams step up and play their way in it could be a possibility.
Ole Miss- Early season wins continue to keep the Rebels in the discussion, but they have to do something in the SEC tournament. The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They did get to 9-7 in the SEC to keep their at-large hopes alive. They have a first round bye and then must win their first conference tournament game. A win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament could earn them a bid... an additional win over Kentucky will put them firmly in.
St Louis- St Louis managed to get a split in the Temple/Dayton stretch last week to keep their slim hopes alive. They are only 83 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton(twice), and Rhode Island, St Louis is 4-3 against the RPI top 50. They finished alone in 4th in a particularly strong A10 going 11-5. They still may need to win the conference tournament to go dancing, but it's possible getting two more top 50 wins by beating Rhode Island and Temple in their first two tournament games could earn them an at large bid.
Arizona State- Arizona State won 6 of their last 7 if the very weak PAC Ten. Arizona State only has 1 top 50 win (beating SD State). They have another win over a Washington team that currently is 51 in the RPI. If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Washington- Finished the season by winning 4 straight to keep their hopes alive. They have two top 50 RPI wins both at home against Texas A&M and Cal... If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU and a solid win over Wichita State to get them to 2-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). That may not be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Dayton- Dayton seemingly dealt themselves a deathblow last week losing to Richmond and Saint Louis to fall to .500 in the A10. Dayton is 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Old Dominion. It is going to take a pretty exceptional Atlantic Ten tournament to get the committee's attention. They got the win they needed to open the A10 tournament and now likely must beat Xavier and Richmond to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid.
Mississippi State- At 1-4 against the RPI top 50 Mississippi State probably is a fringe candidate at best at this point. Their sweep of Ole Miss does not carry much weight at this point. Their best victory was early in the season over Old Dominion. Mississippi State is still on the board because wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to reach the SEC finals would likely be enough to earn them a bid. They have not really done anything to show that is possible, but the point is their slims hopes are still alive (and remember they ended up winning the conference tournament last year to force their way in).
Rhode Island- Rhode Isalnd, like Dayton...seemingly played their way out last week. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50 (0-4 against the top 25) beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. The loss to Umass on Saturday was their second bad loss (also have a loss to St Bonaventure). Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. Rhode Island gets St Louis in a do or die game in the A10 quarterfinals and then must find a way to beat Temple to have a shot at an at-large bid.
UAB- The loss to UTEP all but eliminated UAB from an at-large bid. They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-5 against the RPI top 50. I don't know that beating Memphis and earning a trip to the Conference USA finals would even be enough at this point. They probably need to win the conference tournament.
Cincinnati- Getting smacked around by Georgetown for all purposes eliminated Cincinnati from the discussion, but I leave them here because the Big East tournament does offer a unique opportunity for a run. The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats survived against Rutgers to advance in the tournament. Advancing to the finals will be necessary for the Bearcats to earn a bid... a trip to the finals would likely give the Bearcats victories over Louisville, WVU and Pitt...all of a sudden that would be a pretty interesting resume. (Hey a man can dream)
Eliminated From Consideration
UCONN- Wow do things change in a week. UCONN had won 4 in a row and then suffered a close lose to Louisville. The came into last week feeling reasonably good all things considered. Three stink bombs later (losses to ND, South Florida, and St Johns) and UCONN has absolutely no shot to be a tournament team.
South Florida- The managed to get to .500 in Big East play and have 3 top 50 wins to their credit (going 3-4 against the RPI top 50) beating Pitt and Kent State at home...the Georgetown on the road. However, they needed to beat Georgetown today and fell short. A nice year for South Florida, but ultimately they will not be dancing.
Wichita State- A trip to the finals of the Conference Tournament finals of the Missouri Valley just is not going to be enough for Greg Marshall's kids. They did manage to go 9-5 against the RPI top 100, but only 1 of those wins was against the RPI top 50 (beating conference champion Northern Iowa in the Regularl season). A good season, but ultimately not enough.
Charlotte- They once sat in great shape, but just closed the season losing 7 of 8 games including a first round A10 loss to Umass. Charlotte is not going to be dancing.
From last week I have moved 6 teams from on the bubble to in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens from here forward. I have also eliminated four teams from bubble discussion (what you will notice about all those teams is their seasons are over and they have no way to add to their resume). I've added some teams to the bubble discussion that I missed on my first quick look through last week. Now that I have had more time to look things over and evaluate this is a far better look.
As of right now my cutoff is Minnesota (of course that assumes UTEP wins CUSA and Cal wins the Pac Ten, Xavier/Temple/Richmond win the A10, and New Mexico/UNLV/BYU win the Mountain West...otherwise the bubble certainly shrinks.
Also it is important to note that some of the teams I have eliminated may currently have and may finish with better resume's than some of the teams I have in the discussion and on the bubble. The reason teams that may be below them are still on the bubble is that those teams on the bubble have opportunities to improve their resume. I may put out my first bracket today, but I'll probably wait until later in the week.
Teams that have moved from bubble to in:
Clemson- Clemson has played themselves into tournament lock status. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 vs. RPI 26-50. They have beaten Butler and Maryland, swept Florida State and taken down GT. All that plus finishing over .500 in the ACC...they are in.
UNLV- The Rebels will be in the NCAA tournament. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. With a stronger bubble they may be close to the edge, but not this year. They will be dancing.
Louisville- The second win over Syracuse was just what the doctor ordered to get Louisville into Lock Status. At this point they are just playing for seed (and given the nature of the Big East tournament depending on how they do there is a huge range of where they could be seeded). The Cardinals are now 2-5 against the RPI top 25, but both of those wins came against number 1 seed lock Syracuse. Now Louisville's issue is those two victories are their only top 50 wins...and in another year that could be a huge issue...but at this point... with them getting 11 wins in the number 1 RPI conference I cannot see the Cardinals getting left out.
Marquette- I think the Golden Eagles moved to lock status with their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette finished Big East play with 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 1-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville. Marquette has two unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Florida State- By beating Miami and Wake Forest last week Florida State has played their way into the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 10-6. They have four top 50 victories...sweeping bubble team Georgia Tech and getting wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech- I hate the fact that I am saying this but Virginia Tech is a lock at this point. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. Still the Hokies will get in (and with the weakness of the bubble probably should get in), because they went 10-6 in ACC play. And though the Hokies are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 they are 3-1 against RPI 26-50 beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and on the road against fellow bubble team GT.
The Bubble As of Noon- Wednesday
Notre Dame- Sweeping UCONN and Marquette last week probably put the Fighting Irish in the dance. Notre Dame finished the regular season by winning four straight games three of which were against teams that will be dancing in Marquette, Pitt, and Georgetown. Notre Dame also has a great win over West Virginia. Their 3-2 record against the RPI top 25 is going to look really good on selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech hurt themselves by not getting to .500 in ACC play, but despite that they could still find themselves in the field. To their credit the Yellow Jackets have 4 top 50 wins which include a win over possible #1 seed Duke, and wins over NCAA tournament teams Siena, Clemson and Wake Forest. Their opening round game against fading North Carolina probably is a must win game. They can secure a win by beating Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, but even a close loss will likely be good enough.
Florida- Florida could have moved to lock status with a win over Kentucky (or even Vandy) last week. As it is they are in relatively good shape simply because of the other teams behind them not having much to celebrate. To date Florida is only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). Looking at the SEC tournament Florida at the very least needs to make the SEC semi finals. Making the semis will keep them in the discussion...if they can manage to make the finals they'll be dancing for sure.
Illinois- Illinois could end up giving the committee headaches this Sunday. They sit at 75 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-4 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Very few teams manage to get 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Illinois draws Wisconsin one more time in their first Big Ten tournament game... a win will get the Illini in the field. A loss and they will be teetering on the edge.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. They won the games they needed to last week to keep themselves in position. They likely will need two wins in the Conference tournament to get in...They have a first round match-up with Colorado State which they cannot afford to lose and then get another shot at New Mexico. A win over New Mexico should get them in the field.
UTEP- One of three Conference USA teams hoping to find a way in the tournament. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having won the outright conference championship. They are only 3-1 against the RPI top 50 sweeping UAB and beating Memphis. They have run off 14 straight wins which will really help them. I think at this point UTEP will probably be dancing so long as they make the finals of the CUSA tournament... but it strikes me that their only big wins are over teams that could very likely not be dancing.
Seton Hall- In getting to .500 in conference play Seton Hall did exactly what they needed to last week. They held on for a big win against Providence last night and now may have a chance to play their way into the field against Notre Dame. A win puts Seton Hall firmly on the bubble (I don't think they can get in with a loss). If they can manage to follow that up with a victory over Pitt they will probably be dancing. Seton Hall is only 3-8 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. Of their losses 7 came against teams in the RPI top 15.
Cal- For the record Cal still has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 20 which would make them the highest RPI team ever left out if they do not make it(Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I do not think they deserve it Their resume simply does not hold up. The PAC Ten SHOULD be a one bid league and I really hope the selection committee does their job in scrutinizing it. If teams from the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, Mountain West...etc had these resume's they would not be in the discussion. They are ahead of Washington and Arizona State (who both have two wins over the RPI top 50) because they finished alone in first place.
Minnesota- And to think...last week I did not think there was as shot Minnesota would be dancing. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and those are three very high quality wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). The thrashing they received from Michigan looks bad, but they managed to recover and get to .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Penn State is a must...then they'll have a shot to really impress by beating Michigan State.
Memphis- They have two top 50 wins right now... both against a UAB team that will almost assuredly not be dancing without winning the CUSA tournament. Could Memphis getting a third win over UAB and making the finals of the Conference USA tournament be enough? I personally doubt it, but if none of the other bubble teams step up and play their way in it could be a possibility.
Ole Miss- Early season wins continue to keep the Rebels in the discussion, but they have to do something in the SEC tournament. The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They did get to 9-7 in the SEC to keep their at-large hopes alive. They have a first round bye and then must win their first conference tournament game. A win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament could earn them a bid... an additional win over Kentucky will put them firmly in.
St Louis- St Louis managed to get a split in the Temple/Dayton stretch last week to keep their slim hopes alive. They are only 83 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton(twice), and Rhode Island, St Louis is 4-3 against the RPI top 50. They finished alone in 4th in a particularly strong A10 going 11-5. They still may need to win the conference tournament to go dancing, but it's possible getting two more top 50 wins by beating Rhode Island and Temple in their first two tournament games could earn them an at large bid.
Arizona State- Arizona State won 6 of their last 7 if the very weak PAC Ten. Arizona State only has 1 top 50 win (beating SD State). They have another win over a Washington team that currently is 51 in the RPI. If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Washington- Finished the season by winning 4 straight to keep their hopes alive. They have two top 50 RPI wins both at home against Texas A&M and Cal... If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU and a solid win over Wichita State to get them to 2-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). That may not be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Dayton- Dayton seemingly dealt themselves a deathblow last week losing to Richmond and Saint Louis to fall to .500 in the A10. Dayton is 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Old Dominion. It is going to take a pretty exceptional Atlantic Ten tournament to get the committee's attention. They got the win they needed to open the A10 tournament and now likely must beat Xavier and Richmond to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid.
Mississippi State- At 1-4 against the RPI top 50 Mississippi State probably is a fringe candidate at best at this point. Their sweep of Ole Miss does not carry much weight at this point. Their best victory was early in the season over Old Dominion. Mississippi State is still on the board because wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to reach the SEC finals would likely be enough to earn them a bid. They have not really done anything to show that is possible, but the point is their slims hopes are still alive (and remember they ended up winning the conference tournament last year to force their way in).
Rhode Island- Rhode Isalnd, like Dayton...seemingly played their way out last week. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50 (0-4 against the top 25) beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. The loss to Umass on Saturday was their second bad loss (also have a loss to St Bonaventure). Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. Rhode Island gets St Louis in a do or die game in the A10 quarterfinals and then must find a way to beat Temple to have a shot at an at-large bid.
UAB- The loss to UTEP all but eliminated UAB from an at-large bid. They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-5 against the RPI top 50. I don't know that beating Memphis and earning a trip to the Conference USA finals would even be enough at this point. They probably need to win the conference tournament.
Cincinnati- Getting smacked around by Georgetown for all purposes eliminated Cincinnati from the discussion, but I leave them here because the Big East tournament does offer a unique opportunity for a run. The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats survived against Rutgers to advance in the tournament. Advancing to the finals will be necessary for the Bearcats to earn a bid... a trip to the finals would likely give the Bearcats victories over Louisville, WVU and Pitt...all of a sudden that would be a pretty interesting resume. (Hey a man can dream)
Eliminated From Consideration
UCONN- Wow do things change in a week. UCONN had won 4 in a row and then suffered a close lose to Louisville. The came into last week feeling reasonably good all things considered. Three stink bombs later (losses to ND, South Florida, and St Johns) and UCONN has absolutely no shot to be a tournament team.
South Florida- The managed to get to .500 in Big East play and have 3 top 50 wins to their credit (going 3-4 against the RPI top 50) beating Pitt and Kent State at home...the Georgetown on the road. However, they needed to beat Georgetown today and fell short. A nice year for South Florida, but ultimately they will not be dancing.
Wichita State- A trip to the finals of the Conference Tournament finals of the Missouri Valley just is not going to be enough for Greg Marshall's kids. They did manage to go 9-5 against the RPI top 100, but only 1 of those wins was against the RPI top 50 (beating conference champion Northern Iowa in the Regularl season). A good season, but ultimately not enough.
Charlotte- They once sat in great shape, but just closed the season losing 7 of 8 games including a first round A10 loss to Umass. Charlotte is not going to be dancing.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Ranking the Bubble Part 1
Every year at this time I start to put together my NCAA tournament projections. Now I'm not going to mess with an actual bracket until some time during championship week, but for now I have ranked the teams I see as on the bubble. A few reminders there is a ton that will change over the next few weeks. A team like Cal, or St Mary's, or Old Dominion has no chance to improve its resume without winning their conference tournaments. Teams like UCONN, ND, St Louis (because of the strength of the A10 this year), Dayton, Charlotte, Ole Miss... all can improve their resume's. My rankings right now are just projections as of this time. A team like Charlotte can play their way in with some big wins down the stretch...a team like St Mary's needs help (unless they win the conference tournament).
The Cutoff for bubble teams right now is at SD State...but that could easily change if say Gonzaga does not win the West Coast Conference tournament, Butler does not win the Horizon League, or Northern Iowa does not win the Missouri Valley. That would mean less spots for those bubble teams.
Alright here it is:
Clemson- 2-4 against the RPI top 25, 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They have a top 30 RPI and are tied for third in the ACC. Their best wins are over Butler and Maryland. They've also swept fellow bubble team Florida State. They split with fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but should be above them in the pecking order at this point.
Marquette- With their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette now has 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 2-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville and UCONN. Marquette has to unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Georgia Tech- With their loss to Clemson, Georgia Tech is now under .500 in the ACC. They are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-4 against RPI 26-50. They have a great win over Duke...their other big wins are Wake Forest, Clemson and Siena. Despite a split with Clemson they are likely below them in the pecking order.
UNLV- The Rebels are in pretty good position to earn an at large bid. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. If UNLV wins their season finale against a 7-19 Wyoming squad I think they will probably be dancing.
Louisville- Finishing over .500 in the Big East may be enough to get them in the tournament but they shouldn't be too comfortable at this point. The Cardinals are only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (a great road win over Syracuse). They are 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They swept UCONN, and beat Cincinnati and ND. Getting smacked by Marquette did not help their tournament chances. Louisville could really use another win over Syracuse on Saturday...or a couple wins in the Big East tournament if they want to avoid sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.
Florida State- They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 and are 2-4 against RPI 26-50 (though they beat Marquette who sits just outside the top 50 and is another bubble team). Both of their top 50 victories were over bubble team Georgia Tech which is a plus, but Georgia Tech probably has a stronger overall body of work. Florida State was swept by fellow bubble team Clemson.
Illinois- They sit at 73 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-3 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Getting the sweep of Wisconsin Saturday would put Illinois in great position to earn a bid, otherwise they have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.
Florida- The recipe for them getting in is pretty simple...beat Kentucky To date Florida is 2-6 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). They missed their chance last night against Vanderbilt and now really need that upset over Kentucky. If they can manage to get that 3rd victory over RPI top 25 teams this week I think they'll be a tournament team (baring an awful SEC tournament performance). If they don't they'll need to be very impressive in the SEC tournament...semis at least...maybe a trip to the title game.
UCONN- This is another team that will be a real headache for the selection committee. If they can somehow sweep road games this week against ND and South Florida to get to .500 in the league they will probably be a tournament lock. UCONN really does have some strong wins. They are 3-5 against the RPI top 25 but 0-3 against RPI 26-50. They were swept by fellow bubble team Louisville and swept by fringe bubble team Cincinnati. They have two bad losses to Providence and Michigan. Still wins over Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas are probably a better group of wins than any other bubble teams. The committee likes to reward teams for winning big games, but if UCONN does not get to .500 in the Big East they are going to really be on the bubble come selection Sunday.
Notre Dame- Their RPI is only 68 which does not bode well for them, but they have looked more and more like a tournament team. Last week they beat Pitt and Georgetown to keep them on the bubble. Notre Dame is now a very strong 3-2 against the RPI top 25. If they can get a split with Marquette and UCONN this week Notre Dame will be firmly on the bubble. If they can sweep they'll probably be on the good side of the bubble.
Virginia Tech- They will be a very interesting call for the committee. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. The Hokies only have two RPI top 50 wins both of which were at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. They are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. VT may be an NCAA caliber team, but there really is not much on their resume to judge them by. The committee tends to frown on this so I think they'll really need to do something in the ACC tournament to earn a spot.
Dayton- What a hot and cold team they have been all year. Dayton is 1-5 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Ole Dominion. If Dayton can win both games this week they'll add another top 50 win as they get Richmond this week. Beating Richmond would put Dayton in pretty good position, especially if they make a nice run in the A10 tournament. Dayton would not be in today, but because of the relative strength of the A10 and who is on their schedule they have a chance to play themselves in.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. Last season I had them as my first team out...so clearly I think they just missed the big dance. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. SD State cannot afford to lose either of their last two games and probably needs to beat BYU or New Mexico in the conference tournament to earn a bid.
Seton Hall- Seton Hall is only 3-9 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. With their only games remaining being against Rutgers and Providence they could easily win those to get to .500 in the conference. Still Seton Would likely need to reach the semis of the Big East tournament to go dancing.
Mississippi State- Mississippi State is going to once again win the SEC west. They also swept fellow bubble team Ole Miss (though their overall resume probably is not as good). They are 1-4 in RPI top 50 games with their only RPI top 50 win came against Old Dominion early in the season. Mississippi State likely needs to make the finals of the conference tournament as well to earn a bid.
St Mary's- They are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (beating SD State and Utah State). With a trip to the conference finals and not too many upsets in conference tournaments they may have an outside shot at a bid, but in the end 2 RPI top 50 wins may not be enough.
Cal- I would say this is the only team that has a shot at an At-Large bid in the PAC Ten and even their resume is not particularly strong. Cal has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 21 so if they were left out they would be tied for the highest ranked RPI team ever to be left out (Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I am really not sure they deserve it. In fact I will not be giving them an at large bid in any projections I do. Their resume simply does not hold up. So yes...the PAC Ten should be a one bid league.
St Louis- They are only 86 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island, St Louis is 3-2 against the RPI top 50. They get Temple and Dayton this week. If they can sweep those games and get to 5-2 against the RPI top 50 ( and 12-4 in a particularly strong A10) they will be right there.
Ole Miss- The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They need to get to 9-7 in the SEC (which they should) and then probably reach the finals of the SEC tournament.
Minnesota- They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). Still getting drilled by Michigan probably eliminated them from at large consideration unless they can make a big run in the Big Ten tournament.
Charlotte- Another hot and cold team that seems to have fizzled out of late. Charlotte is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Louisville, Richmond and Temple (Richmond and Louisville were both true road games). Getting drilled by fellow bubble team Dayton will not help. Nor will their recent loss to George Washington. Charlotte has two games this week against top 50 RPI teams (Rhode Island and Richmond). If they could somehow sweep those games all of a sudden they become a very viable bubble team...without those and they'll likely be staying home.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 4-9 against the RPI top 50 (the 2 other victories being their sweep of UCONN). Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats need to beat Georgetown on Saturday, but baring a run to the finals of the Big East tournament it looks like they will be once again watching the NCAA tournament not participating in it.
Rhode Island- Rhode Island is likely going to be on the outside looking in (like it appears many of these A10 bubble teams will be). They are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. They'll need to win out and then get a victory over a Temple or Xavier in the conference tournament to be in the discussion.
UTEP- One of two Conference USA teams with a decent at-large candidacy. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having clinched the outright conference championship. They are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50, that victory being over UAB. They get UAB again this week and probably need a win to be in the at large discussion. They also probably cannot lose to anyone but UAB or Memphis in the conference tournament if they want an at large bid.
UAB- They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-2 against the RPI top 50. If they beat UTEP this week then lose to them in the finals maybe they'll be in the discussion, but even then I am not sure.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU, but they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). I doubt 1-1 will be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Old Dominion- They are 1-1 against the RPI top 25 and 0-3 against RPI 26-50. The win over Georgetown is impressive, but probably not impressive enough to earn an at large bid.
Cornell- They are not getting an at-large bid, but it won't matter because they are going to win the Ivy League.
The Cutoff for bubble teams right now is at SD State...but that could easily change if say Gonzaga does not win the West Coast Conference tournament, Butler does not win the Horizon League, or Northern Iowa does not win the Missouri Valley. That would mean less spots for those bubble teams.
Alright here it is:
Clemson- 2-4 against the RPI top 25, 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They have a top 30 RPI and are tied for third in the ACC. Their best wins are over Butler and Maryland. They've also swept fellow bubble team Florida State. They split with fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but should be above them in the pecking order at this point.
Marquette- With their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette now has 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 2-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville and UCONN. Marquette has to unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Georgia Tech- With their loss to Clemson, Georgia Tech is now under .500 in the ACC. They are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-4 against RPI 26-50. They have a great win over Duke...their other big wins are Wake Forest, Clemson and Siena. Despite a split with Clemson they are likely below them in the pecking order.
UNLV- The Rebels are in pretty good position to earn an at large bid. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. If UNLV wins their season finale against a 7-19 Wyoming squad I think they will probably be dancing.
Louisville- Finishing over .500 in the Big East may be enough to get them in the tournament but they shouldn't be too comfortable at this point. The Cardinals are only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (a great road win over Syracuse). They are 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They swept UCONN, and beat Cincinnati and ND. Getting smacked by Marquette did not help their tournament chances. Louisville could really use another win over Syracuse on Saturday...or a couple wins in the Big East tournament if they want to avoid sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.
Florida State- They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 and are 2-4 against RPI 26-50 (though they beat Marquette who sits just outside the top 50 and is another bubble team). Both of their top 50 victories were over bubble team Georgia Tech which is a plus, but Georgia Tech probably has a stronger overall body of work. Florida State was swept by fellow bubble team Clemson.
Illinois- They sit at 73 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-3 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Getting the sweep of Wisconsin Saturday would put Illinois in great position to earn a bid, otherwise they have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.
Florida- The recipe for them getting in is pretty simple...beat Kentucky To date Florida is 2-6 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). They missed their chance last night against Vanderbilt and now really need that upset over Kentucky. If they can manage to get that 3rd victory over RPI top 25 teams this week I think they'll be a tournament team (baring an awful SEC tournament performance). If they don't they'll need to be very impressive in the SEC tournament...semis at least...maybe a trip to the title game.
UCONN- This is another team that will be a real headache for the selection committee. If they can somehow sweep road games this week against ND and South Florida to get to .500 in the league they will probably be a tournament lock. UCONN really does have some strong wins. They are 3-5 against the RPI top 25 but 0-3 against RPI 26-50. They were swept by fellow bubble team Louisville and swept by fringe bubble team Cincinnati. They have two bad losses to Providence and Michigan. Still wins over Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas are probably a better group of wins than any other bubble teams. The committee likes to reward teams for winning big games, but if UCONN does not get to .500 in the Big East they are going to really be on the bubble come selection Sunday.
Notre Dame- Their RPI is only 68 which does not bode well for them, but they have looked more and more like a tournament team. Last week they beat Pitt and Georgetown to keep them on the bubble. Notre Dame is now a very strong 3-2 against the RPI top 25. If they can get a split with Marquette and UCONN this week Notre Dame will be firmly on the bubble. If they can sweep they'll probably be on the good side of the bubble.
Virginia Tech- They will be a very interesting call for the committee. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. The Hokies only have two RPI top 50 wins both of which were at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. They are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. VT may be an NCAA caliber team, but there really is not much on their resume to judge them by. The committee tends to frown on this so I think they'll really need to do something in the ACC tournament to earn a spot.
Dayton- What a hot and cold team they have been all year. Dayton is 1-5 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Ole Dominion. If Dayton can win both games this week they'll add another top 50 win as they get Richmond this week. Beating Richmond would put Dayton in pretty good position, especially if they make a nice run in the A10 tournament. Dayton would not be in today, but because of the relative strength of the A10 and who is on their schedule they have a chance to play themselves in.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. Last season I had them as my first team out...so clearly I think they just missed the big dance. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. SD State cannot afford to lose either of their last two games and probably needs to beat BYU or New Mexico in the conference tournament to earn a bid.
Seton Hall- Seton Hall is only 3-9 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. With their only games remaining being against Rutgers and Providence they could easily win those to get to .500 in the conference. Still Seton Would likely need to reach the semis of the Big East tournament to go dancing.
Mississippi State- Mississippi State is going to once again win the SEC west. They also swept fellow bubble team Ole Miss (though their overall resume probably is not as good). They are 1-4 in RPI top 50 games with their only RPI top 50 win came against Old Dominion early in the season. Mississippi State likely needs to make the finals of the conference tournament as well to earn a bid.
St Mary's- They are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (beating SD State and Utah State). With a trip to the conference finals and not too many upsets in conference tournaments they may have an outside shot at a bid, but in the end 2 RPI top 50 wins may not be enough.
Cal- I would say this is the only team that has a shot at an At-Large bid in the PAC Ten and even their resume is not particularly strong. Cal has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 21 so if they were left out they would be tied for the highest ranked RPI team ever to be left out (Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I am really not sure they deserve it. In fact I will not be giving them an at large bid in any projections I do. Their resume simply does not hold up. So yes...the PAC Ten should be a one bid league.
St Louis- They are only 86 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island, St Louis is 3-2 against the RPI top 50. They get Temple and Dayton this week. If they can sweep those games and get to 5-2 against the RPI top 50 ( and 12-4 in a particularly strong A10) they will be right there.
Ole Miss- The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They need to get to 9-7 in the SEC (which they should) and then probably reach the finals of the SEC tournament.
Minnesota- They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). Still getting drilled by Michigan probably eliminated them from at large consideration unless they can make a big run in the Big Ten tournament.
Charlotte- Another hot and cold team that seems to have fizzled out of late. Charlotte is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Louisville, Richmond and Temple (Richmond and Louisville were both true road games). Getting drilled by fellow bubble team Dayton will not help. Nor will their recent loss to George Washington. Charlotte has two games this week against top 50 RPI teams (Rhode Island and Richmond). If they could somehow sweep those games all of a sudden they become a very viable bubble team...without those and they'll likely be staying home.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 4-9 against the RPI top 50 (the 2 other victories being their sweep of UCONN). Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats need to beat Georgetown on Saturday, but baring a run to the finals of the Big East tournament it looks like they will be once again watching the NCAA tournament not participating in it.
Rhode Island- Rhode Island is likely going to be on the outside looking in (like it appears many of these A10 bubble teams will be). They are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. They'll need to win out and then get a victory over a Temple or Xavier in the conference tournament to be in the discussion.
UTEP- One of two Conference USA teams with a decent at-large candidacy. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having clinched the outright conference championship. They are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50, that victory being over UAB. They get UAB again this week and probably need a win to be in the at large discussion. They also probably cannot lose to anyone but UAB or Memphis in the conference tournament if they want an at large bid.
UAB- They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-2 against the RPI top 50. If they beat UTEP this week then lose to them in the finals maybe they'll be in the discussion, but even then I am not sure.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU, but they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). I doubt 1-1 will be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Old Dominion- They are 1-1 against the RPI top 25 and 0-3 against RPI 26-50. The win over Georgetown is impressive, but probably not impressive enough to earn an at large bid.
Cornell- They are not getting an at-large bid, but it won't matter because they are going to win the Ivy League.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
UC's Path to an NCAA Bid
February is here and for a second straight season it is time to take a look at what the Bearcats must do to make the NCAA tournament. Like many of my fellow Bearcat fans I have felt the pain and frustration at what has been by in large a very up and down year. The Bearcats played great in Maui (minus the foul shooting that cost them the Gonzaga) beating Vandy and Maryland then turned around and lost to Xavier and were smacked by UAB. They beat UCONN, but then blew a late lead against St Johns. They took down Notre Dame at home and were smacked by them on the road. UC blew double digit leads against Louisville and Seton Hall but despite that is still .500 in the conference with eight games left. It seems at times this team is there, they get it and then at times they do not.
The frustration hits on multiple levels because we are in what many fans are hoping will not be a fifth straight season without an NCAA tournament bid. After the string of 14 straight seasons making the tournament this level of mediocrity would have been unfathomable. The frustration hits because we have watched the last two seasons when the Bearcats have been in position to make a run only to fade down the stretch. We are fans...we see the negative, we remember how losing has felt and it all adds up.
Despite our worst fears of fading again...of not doing what we need to make the tournament this team will still have every opportunity to get there with a few big wins down the stretch. As of this very moment the Bearcats would be firmly on the bubble selection Sunday. I think it is pointless to try to do a projection now with so much of the season left, but I think it is fair to say the Bearcats would be compared to a number of teams sitting right on the fence (Louisville, North Carolina, Maryland, Ole Miss to name a few).
The selection committee has been pretty consistent with what makes a tournament team. They want you to play quality teams, to beat quality teams, and to prove you can win away from home. Those are the most important qualities in an NCAA tournament team... the other huge area they look at is did that team avoid bad losses. I would say avoiding bad losses is less important than earning quality victories. Maryland, for example, got in last year with several very bad losses on the strength of wins over highly seeded teams Wake Forest, Michigan State and North Carolina (hell UNC and Michigan State ended up playing for that national title...those were big wins).
The NCAA really does not look at conference affiliation in terms of number of teams per conference and instead focuses on each individual team and how they compare to everyone else. What is nice for UC is they do have some quality wins (3 top 50 RPI wins, 1 of which is a win over RPI #12 Vandy). And their worst loss of the season is to St Johns, whose RPI sits at 84. In terms of selection committee criteria that is far from a bad loss. As it stands right now the Bearcats are 3-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-8 against the RPI top 100. Broken down further they are 1-2 against the RPI top 25 teams, 2-3 against teams ranked between 26-50 and 3-3 against teams ranked 51-100. It also big for the Bearcats that 2 of their 3 top 50 RPI wins were neutral site wins. Judging by those numbers the Bearcats have certainly showed themselves capable of competing against teams that will be in the NCAA field.
More importantly the Bearcats will get many more chances to pad their resume down the stretch. The Bearcats have 8 games remaining on their 2009-2010 regular season schedule. Seven of those 8 games will be against teams ranked in the RPI top 65 (Depaul being the only team not in the RPI top 100). This includes 4 RPI top 8 teams, 3 of which the Bearcats will play in a brutal three game stretch to end the regular season. To really help their case the Bearcats are going to need at least one victory against those RPI top 8 teams (#2 Syracuse, #3 Villanova, #5 WVU, #8 Georgetown). If they can get that and go 4-0 in the other games I think the Bearcats will be a win in the Big East tournament from clinching a bid.
To be in position to make the tournament I think 4-4 down the stretch is a must and they'll likely need to go 5-3 (if they make a deep run in the Big East tournament that can change things slightly), I think they can have a bid locked up if they go 5-3 and happen to beat 2 of those RPI top 8 teams. I believe anything better than 5-3 down the stretch would make them a lock for the tournament.
So if the Bearcats go 5-3 down the stretch their resume would look something like this:
19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
2-5 vs. RPI top 25
3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100
That is a fairly strong resume for a bubble team. Very few bubble teams are going to have 5 top 50 wins, some of which are away from home. UC will also not have a bad loss out of those games (unless they somehow lose to Depaul). They will have finished 7-5 down the stretch and gone 10-8 in the RPI number 1 conference. Not even looking at the field I think it would be possible for a Bearcat team to get in with that resume, but I would not feel safe unless they were able to get a win in the Big East tournament.
Now lets say they go 5-3 but get two of those wins against those Big East RPI top 8 teams. Now their resume looks like this:
19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
3-4 vs. RPI top 25
2-5, or 3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 or 6-8vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100
There really is not a huge difference their, but a team that has 3 RPI top 25 wins (two of which would likely be RPI top 10 wins) would be extremely appealing to the NCAA committee. The record vs. the RPI top 50 would largely depend on where their wins and losses were...their record vs. the RPI top 100 likely would not change. The difference is not huge, but I think it makes a difference. A 10-8 team in the #1 RPI conference, with 5 or 6 top 50 wins including two top 10 wins is going to be an NCAA tournament team. I am very confident in that.
For comparison's sake lets look at Arizona last season who was widely considered the most controversial team to make the tournament.
19-12 overall
9-9 Pac Ten
4-4 vs. RPI top 25
4-7 vs. RPI 26-50
8-11 vs. RPI top 50
Arizona would then lose in the first round of the conference tournament to Arizona State falling to 19-13. The other thing of note was they didn't win any of those games outside of Arizona and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch and yet despite those huge negatives still got in to the NCAA tournament on the strength of quality victories.
The Bearcats will have that opportunity. They already have quality wins away from home and for them to get to 5-3 down the stretch they are most likely not going to have a poor finish. Now comparing one year against another does not guarantee anything. We could have a particularly strong bubble this year that would make the Bearcat's resume not look as good (though I doubt it, particularly because last season upsets in various conference tournaments really limited the amount of bubble teams that got in). My point is I believe 5-3 down the stretch will put the Bearcats in prime position for a bid. If they go 5-3 and add a sixth win in the Big East tournament I will feel really good.
So that is it. That is where UC stands. Will we pull it off? I do not know, but I can tell you I am ready to enjoy the ride. It is year four of the Mick Cronin era...and we are in position to play ourselves into the Big Dance. It is time to take care of business and get the job done. I do not want this drought to extend to five years. I am ready to dance again. As you can see, the Bearcats certainly have every opportunity to make that happen.
The frustration hits on multiple levels because we are in what many fans are hoping will not be a fifth straight season without an NCAA tournament bid. After the string of 14 straight seasons making the tournament this level of mediocrity would have been unfathomable. The frustration hits because we have watched the last two seasons when the Bearcats have been in position to make a run only to fade down the stretch. We are fans...we see the negative, we remember how losing has felt and it all adds up.
Despite our worst fears of fading again...of not doing what we need to make the tournament this team will still have every opportunity to get there with a few big wins down the stretch. As of this very moment the Bearcats would be firmly on the bubble selection Sunday. I think it is pointless to try to do a projection now with so much of the season left, but I think it is fair to say the Bearcats would be compared to a number of teams sitting right on the fence (Louisville, North Carolina, Maryland, Ole Miss to name a few).
The selection committee has been pretty consistent with what makes a tournament team. They want you to play quality teams, to beat quality teams, and to prove you can win away from home. Those are the most important qualities in an NCAA tournament team... the other huge area they look at is did that team avoid bad losses. I would say avoiding bad losses is less important than earning quality victories. Maryland, for example, got in last year with several very bad losses on the strength of wins over highly seeded teams Wake Forest, Michigan State and North Carolina (hell UNC and Michigan State ended up playing for that national title...those were big wins).
The NCAA really does not look at conference affiliation in terms of number of teams per conference and instead focuses on each individual team and how they compare to everyone else. What is nice for UC is they do have some quality wins (3 top 50 RPI wins, 1 of which is a win over RPI #12 Vandy). And their worst loss of the season is to St Johns, whose RPI sits at 84. In terms of selection committee criteria that is far from a bad loss. As it stands right now the Bearcats are 3-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-8 against the RPI top 100. Broken down further they are 1-2 against the RPI top 25 teams, 2-3 against teams ranked between 26-50 and 3-3 against teams ranked 51-100. It also big for the Bearcats that 2 of their 3 top 50 RPI wins were neutral site wins. Judging by those numbers the Bearcats have certainly showed themselves capable of competing against teams that will be in the NCAA field.
More importantly the Bearcats will get many more chances to pad their resume down the stretch. The Bearcats have 8 games remaining on their 2009-2010 regular season schedule. Seven of those 8 games will be against teams ranked in the RPI top 65 (Depaul being the only team not in the RPI top 100). This includes 4 RPI top 8 teams, 3 of which the Bearcats will play in a brutal three game stretch to end the regular season. To really help their case the Bearcats are going to need at least one victory against those RPI top 8 teams (#2 Syracuse, #3 Villanova, #5 WVU, #8 Georgetown). If they can get that and go 4-0 in the other games I think the Bearcats will be a win in the Big East tournament from clinching a bid.
To be in position to make the tournament I think 4-4 down the stretch is a must and they'll likely need to go 5-3 (if they make a deep run in the Big East tournament that can change things slightly), I think they can have a bid locked up if they go 5-3 and happen to beat 2 of those RPI top 8 teams. I believe anything better than 5-3 down the stretch would make them a lock for the tournament.
So if the Bearcats go 5-3 down the stretch their resume would look something like this:
19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
2-5 vs. RPI top 25
3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100
That is a fairly strong resume for a bubble team. Very few bubble teams are going to have 5 top 50 wins, some of which are away from home. UC will also not have a bad loss out of those games (unless they somehow lose to Depaul). They will have finished 7-5 down the stretch and gone 10-8 in the RPI number 1 conference. Not even looking at the field I think it would be possible for a Bearcat team to get in with that resume, but I would not feel safe unless they were able to get a win in the Big East tournament.
Now lets say they go 5-3 but get two of those wins against those Big East RPI top 8 teams. Now their resume looks like this:
19-11 overall
10-8 Big East
3-4 vs. RPI top 25
2-5, or 3-4 vs. RPI 26-50
5-9 or 6-8vs. RPI top 50
10-11 vs. RPI top 100
There really is not a huge difference their, but a team that has 3 RPI top 25 wins (two of which would likely be RPI top 10 wins) would be extremely appealing to the NCAA committee. The record vs. the RPI top 50 would largely depend on where their wins and losses were...their record vs. the RPI top 100 likely would not change. The difference is not huge, but I think it makes a difference. A 10-8 team in the #1 RPI conference, with 5 or 6 top 50 wins including two top 10 wins is going to be an NCAA tournament team. I am very confident in that.
For comparison's sake lets look at Arizona last season who was widely considered the most controversial team to make the tournament.
19-12 overall
9-9 Pac Ten
4-4 vs. RPI top 25
4-7 vs. RPI 26-50
8-11 vs. RPI top 50
Arizona would then lose in the first round of the conference tournament to Arizona State falling to 19-13. The other thing of note was they didn't win any of those games outside of Arizona and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch and yet despite those huge negatives still got in to the NCAA tournament on the strength of quality victories.
The Bearcats will have that opportunity. They already have quality wins away from home and for them to get to 5-3 down the stretch they are most likely not going to have a poor finish. Now comparing one year against another does not guarantee anything. We could have a particularly strong bubble this year that would make the Bearcat's resume not look as good (though I doubt it, particularly because last season upsets in various conference tournaments really limited the amount of bubble teams that got in). My point is I believe 5-3 down the stretch will put the Bearcats in prime position for a bid. If they go 5-3 and add a sixth win in the Big East tournament I will feel really good.
So that is it. That is where UC stands. Will we pull it off? I do not know, but I can tell you I am ready to enjoy the ride. It is year four of the Mick Cronin era...and we are in position to play ourselves into the Big Dance. It is time to take care of business and get the job done. I do not want this drought to extend to five years. I am ready to dance again. As you can see, the Bearcats certainly have every opportunity to make that happen.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Is the Miami Rivalry Finished?
In 2003 I was a college freshman at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Yes it pains me to admit it but i initially made a decision to go to college where there was a free golf course and a 70-30 girl to guy ratio instead of staying where I could continue to attend every Bearcat game. Needless to say I remedied this decision the next year. The week of the Battle for the Victory Bell I spoke to a local sports bar who assured me they would be carrying the game on their ESPN Gameplan package, but little did I know there was a strike brewing at Miami. I believe it was the Miami janitors who were striking...but do not hold me to that. However, the key point is that ESPN refused to cross the picket line. The game was not going to be televised. What was I to do?
At 5 PM I walked down the hall to a friend’s room and asked him the simple question, “What do you think about driving to Cincinnati with me tonight so I can catch the Bearcat vs. Redhawks game tomorrow?” He said he was in and we left within 20 minutes, arriving at my mom’s palatial Loveland estate around 230 AM (and was she ever surprised).
The point of that little foray into Bearcatmark history is that in 2003 I was willing to drive 8 hours spur of the moment so as to not miss the Battle for the Victory Bell. At that time the Bearcat vs. Miami game was the game I probably looked forward to most every season. Today it is just a blip on the radar. So I guess my question is this: Is the rivalry between the University of Cincinnati and Miami of Ohio effective over?
If I was to rank the Bearcat games that I really wanted to attend this season the Miami game would rank above Southeast Missouri State, but below everyone else. This would be fine if it was just my feelings, but I am fairly certain there are plenty of Bearcat fans who share that sentiment. The fact of the matter is these two schools are now on completely different levels. And while Miami is not always going to be as down as they are now and surely they will be successful again...maybe even enough to beat Cincinnati. However, even in those years they will not be playing the same game as the BCS Bearcats... we are simply in two different worlds.
I think Miami fans are even starting to understand it. A few of my Miami graduate friends put together a big group for the Miami vs. Kentucky game at PBS, but are doing their best to avoid the Cincinnati vs. Miami game. They are pretty sure it is going to be a massacre. Over on Redhawk message boards even their fans are acknowledging they are not on UC’s level these days.
Right now we are only a few years removed from when Miami was clearly the better team. The losses against Big Ben are still fresh in our minds. I still have fond memories of the triple overtime battle at Nippert and brutal memories of the kickoff return that beat UC up in Oxford, or the dropped punt when it looked like Gino was going to bring UC all the way back in 2003. What happens as we get further and further removed from this? Bearcat and Redhawk fans alike are already far less stoked for this game than they have been in my lifetime. When does complete apathy set in? It is not much of a rivalry when fans start viewing it as just another game.
Many Bearcat fans have asked should we continue to play the game... and given the circumstance surrounding it I understand the question. I am personally on the side of playing the game. I do not mind watching the Bearcats beat the tar out of the Redhawks once a year. I do not mind having a road game in close driving distance, in a place with a great tailgating lot, in a pretty fun college town. I say grab your pink shirts, pop your collars and get up there Bearcat fans.
As many have pointed out we do not have the money to pay 1A teams for guarantee games. If we are going to struggle for a seventh home game lets have a road game an hour away. For fans like me who drive to Rutgers and hope to fly to South Florida (apparently tickets out of Dayton to Tampa are 130 dollars right now Bearcat fans) a game at Miami is certainly one to take advantage of every other year. This game has still been played for over 100 years. It is still the first college football game played in Ohio and still one of the nations oldest rivalries. So lets smack them around at least for a while longer and take the lead in the series.
I have many fond memories from the Bearcat vs. Miami rivalry. I have a few excruciating ones. Despite that this game is at the bottom of the list when it comes to Bearcat games I want to attend or care about watching. We are a few years removed from when this game was the biggest of the year and already their is a ora of apathy surrounding it. It would be nice if Miami could become at least a good team again on a consistent basis, but even if they do the game has lost its significance. I hope we keep playing, I like the game, but as it appears to me the Miami/Cincinnati rivalry is effective over.
At 5 PM I walked down the hall to a friend’s room and asked him the simple question, “What do you think about driving to Cincinnati with me tonight so I can catch the Bearcat vs. Redhawks game tomorrow?” He said he was in and we left within 20 minutes, arriving at my mom’s palatial Loveland estate around 230 AM (and was she ever surprised).
The point of that little foray into Bearcatmark history is that in 2003 I was willing to drive 8 hours spur of the moment so as to not miss the Battle for the Victory Bell. At that time the Bearcat vs. Miami game was the game I probably looked forward to most every season. Today it is just a blip on the radar. So I guess my question is this: Is the rivalry between the University of Cincinnati and Miami of Ohio effective over?
If I was to rank the Bearcat games that I really wanted to attend this season the Miami game would rank above Southeast Missouri State, but below everyone else. This would be fine if it was just my feelings, but I am fairly certain there are plenty of Bearcat fans who share that sentiment. The fact of the matter is these two schools are now on completely different levels. And while Miami is not always going to be as down as they are now and surely they will be successful again...maybe even enough to beat Cincinnati. However, even in those years they will not be playing the same game as the BCS Bearcats... we are simply in two different worlds.
I think Miami fans are even starting to understand it. A few of my Miami graduate friends put together a big group for the Miami vs. Kentucky game at PBS, but are doing their best to avoid the Cincinnati vs. Miami game. They are pretty sure it is going to be a massacre. Over on Redhawk message boards even their fans are acknowledging they are not on UC’s level these days.
Right now we are only a few years removed from when Miami was clearly the better team. The losses against Big Ben are still fresh in our minds. I still have fond memories of the triple overtime battle at Nippert and brutal memories of the kickoff return that beat UC up in Oxford, or the dropped punt when it looked like Gino was going to bring UC all the way back in 2003. What happens as we get further and further removed from this? Bearcat and Redhawk fans alike are already far less stoked for this game than they have been in my lifetime. When does complete apathy set in? It is not much of a rivalry when fans start viewing it as just another game.
Many Bearcat fans have asked should we continue to play the game... and given the circumstance surrounding it I understand the question. I am personally on the side of playing the game. I do not mind watching the Bearcats beat the tar out of the Redhawks once a year. I do not mind having a road game in close driving distance, in a place with a great tailgating lot, in a pretty fun college town. I say grab your pink shirts, pop your collars and get up there Bearcat fans.
As many have pointed out we do not have the money to pay 1A teams for guarantee games. If we are going to struggle for a seventh home game lets have a road game an hour away. For fans like me who drive to Rutgers and hope to fly to South Florida (apparently tickets out of Dayton to Tampa are 130 dollars right now Bearcat fans) a game at Miami is certainly one to take advantage of every other year. This game has still been played for over 100 years. It is still the first college football game played in Ohio and still one of the nations oldest rivalries. So lets smack them around at least for a while longer and take the lead in the series.
I have many fond memories from the Bearcat vs. Miami rivalry. I have a few excruciating ones. Despite that this game is at the bottom of the list when it comes to Bearcat games I want to attend or care about watching. We are a few years removed from when this game was the biggest of the year and already their is a ora of apathy surrounding it. It would be nice if Miami could become at least a good team again on a consistent basis, but even if they do the game has lost its significance. I hope we keep playing, I like the game, but as it appears to me the Miami/Cincinnati rivalry is effective over.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)