2008 Bearcat Football Preview

The last two years the Cincinnati Bearcats have not been picked to finish very high in the Big East Conference. The 2006 Bearcats were picked near the bottom of the Big East conference by every major publication. They were coming off of a 4 win season, and though returning nearly every player it was clearly going to be a year that would say much for the future of the program. That Bearcat team ended up losing 4 road games to top ten teams, but those games clearly strengthened the cats. They only lost one other game that season (early in the year to Pitt), and ended up beating number 6 Rutgers on a Saturday night in Nippert. The young Bearcats had come a long way from 4-7 and the future looked promising.

Before the Bearcats bowl game that season Mark Dantonio left to take the head coaching job at Michigan State. The Bearcats called on Brian Kelly to build on what Dantonio had done. Kelly started changing the offense and lead the Bearcats to a victory over Western Michigan in the inaugural international bowl. The Bearcats brought back a large portion of the team, and Kelly began to significantly change how they played the game.

Kelly shifted the aggressive, man to man, blitzing defense that Dantonio had used with much success at UC into a zone defense which he said would allow the players to see the ball better, make plays, and not give up big plays. The offense had the biggest shift. He asked the offensive lineman to slim down so they could play faster and move. The protections and blocking schemes were much more complicated. The offense went from a pound it out I formation to a spread offense passing attack. The combination of a more dynamic offense, and an experienced, skilled defense led the Bearcats to a 10 win season, their first since the 1960s. With many of the key players back the Bearcats hope to capitalize this season.

On Defense:

The defense will be the key once again to the Bearcats and this defense should be stellar. The Bearcats return two potential first team all Americans in Mike Mickens at CB and Terrill Byrd at DT. Byrd and Mickens anchor an experience defense which gave opposing offenses fits all last season.

The Bearcats only ranked 23rd in Total defense national last season, thanks to giving up a large number of passing yards, but that ranking does not begin to tell the entire story. The pass defense was actually a large strength of UC’s defense not only making it difficult for defenses to score, but also taking the ball away and giving the Bearcats offense great opportunities to put up points.

There are four major reasons the defensive numbers may not be a full reflection of how good this defensive really was:
1. Cincinnati played fast offensively. Brian Kelly’s Bearcats wanted to play a quick tempo. They would go know huddle, they would to the line quickly and they would run their play. They wanted to dictate tempo for the opposition. Because of the tempo UC often played at they tended to run more plays than say a Mark Dantonio coached Bearcat team would.
2. The Bearcats threw the ball a bunch. When you throw the ball a lot there are more stoppages of the clock and thus less clock running off. This also increases the number of plays that will be run in a game.
4. The Bearcat run defense was stalwart. Throw out the WVU and Pitt games and no other team was able to establish a running attack against UC. This ability to shut down the run forced other teams to throw the ball.
5. The Bearcats often played with the lead. The Bearcats opened up several big leads throughout the year and forced teams to throw the ball to catch up. With the lead the Bearcats often allowed some underneath throws and baiting the other teams into many mistakes. Also with the other team throwing a bunch that would extend the game and cause more plays to be run.

I would say you can get a more accurate view of the Bearcat pass defense by considering the pressure they put on quarterbacks (they ranked 8th in the country in sacks), their ability to make it hard to complete passes for significant yardage (they ranked 34 in pass efficiency defense), and their ability to intercept the football (they ranked first in turnovers gained. The Bearcats also ranked number 19 in run defense and most importantly they ranked 13 in scoring defense. Their ranking in scoring defense is particularly impressive given the fact that they often extended games by running so many plays.


Defensive Outlook for 2008

The Biggest concerns for the Bearcats come from having to replace both starting safeties, particularly Haruki Nakurmura and both starting defensive ends. The strength at the Bearcats other positions should allow them to do so. Terrill Byrd and Adam Hoppel are as good a set of defensive tackles as there are in the Big East, maybe the country. Their ability will really allow the inexperienced ends a chance to rush the quarterback. There is also a ton of optimism concerning the Bearcat defensive ends this season. In is transfer Alex Daniels from Minnesota who should have the athleticism and skill set to be a force early on. Lamont Nelms played a significant amount at defensive end last season and was very effective. Conner Barwin and Craig Carey have made the switch from offense to defensive end and their athleticism should offer a different look from the end position. The experience the Bearcats have at Linebacker, and the skill they possess at CB should allow the safeties great opportunities to make plays. The Bearcats expect to give All Conference cornerback DeAngelo Smith ample time at safety this season in order to get he, All American CB Mike Mickens, and OSU transfer Brandon Underwood on the field as much as possible. This is an even more experienced and skilled defense than the Bearcats had last season. Simply put the 2008 Bearcat defense should be even better than the 2007 version.


Offense

Perhaps the biggest strides this Bearcat team will make should be with the offensive line. Last season the offensive line was asked to play a completely different brand of football than they had been brought here to play. They were asked to slim down, to play fest, to learn different blocking schemes and get comfortable blocking in a more athletic, faster offense. This season the offensive line should be far ahead of where they were at this time last year. This should allow for whoever the UC QB is to have more time to throw the football and allow the younger, more athletic Bearcat running backs a chance to make more plays.

The wide receivers should once again be a major strength of this game. Dominick Goodman continued to catch about everything thrown his way last season, making difficult catches look easy. He is an ideal possession receiver with a knack for catching important passes. Last season freshman Marcus Barnett offered the explosiveness the cats thought they might be missing from Derek Stewart. Now a sophomore there is little reason to suspect he cannot continue to produce. Marty Gilyard will once again play a big role, and the buzz around UC was that Charlie Howard had a terrific spring and will likely make an impact this season. The Bearcats also get Tight End Kazeem Alli back after a year off due to injury. Alli showed great promise to years ago, making some big catches in Mark Dantonio’s system. The UC running backs are athletic and should all be able to catch passes and make plays out of the backfield.

UC’s biggest question on offense is the Quarterback position. Ben Mauk still waits hoping to get another chance to lead the Bearcats to a Big East title. Without Ben Mauk someone is going to have to step up and deliver. Dustin Grutza is looking like the favorite. The fifth year senior has plenty of experience and put up good numbers in limited action last season. He has a tendency to make slow decisions and not go throw his progressions quickly, but is a very accurate passer. If he can take his experience and make the decision the offense should be very good again this season.


Bearcats Projections

With Ben Mauk I believe this team is a Big East title contender from day 1. I believe they are a team that can go down to Norman and take down the Sooners. They are that good. Without Mauk every question just looms a little larger. We are first going to take a look at game by game projections without Ben Mauk (I’m assuming Dustin Grutza will be the QB).


Game by Game without Mauk

Thursday August 28 vs. Eastern Michigan- This is a tune-up for the Cats. The Defense will be dominant, the offense will put up big numbers, the backups will get time to play. WIN

Saturday September 6 @ Oklahoma- Talk about a big time out of conference battle. The Sooners never lose at home. They are returning an experienced team that was probably going to be a preseason national title favorite until their dismantling at the hands of West Virginia last season. The Bearcats hope Grutza can lead them to victory. The defense should make this a game, but ultimately I do not think the offense can do enough. LOSS

Saturday September 20 vs. Miami (OH) - Another game the Bearcats should be able to clean up in. Grutza dominated the Redhawks last year in Miami. The players around Grutza should be better this season. I see no reason for this to be a ball game. WIN

Saturday September 27 vs. Akron- Another MAC team, another win. WIN

Friday October 3 @ Marshall - UC controlled the game against Marshall last season at home. This year they take their act to the road. Marshall could be better this season, they are often tough in Huntington. Ultimately the Bearcats pull away. WIN

Saturday October 11 vs. Rutgers- Rutgers comes back to Cincinnati for the first time since UC ended their perfect season and National Title hopes. It’s the second straight year this will be UC’s Big East opener. The Cats prevailed last year and will prevail again at home. WIN

Saturday October 25 @ Connecticut - Two weeks to prepare, and what I think is an ideal matchup for UC. UConn needs to run the ball to be successful, they will not run it on UC. As long as UC takes care of the ball I see this as another victory. WIN

Saturday October 30 vs. USF - Probably UC’s most enticing home game. USF should be very good again. They are going to be among the favorites in the conference. UC and USF played a whale of a game last season (with one of the craziest first quarters of football I have ever witnessed). UC held on breaking up a pass in the end zone on the games last play. This game is at home, so I like UC’s chances. I would say this one is more of a tossup, but I am leaning towards the Bearcats. Leaning Towards WIN

Saturday November 8 @ West Virginia - UC has just not solved WVU. Is this the year the defense can both limit the big plays and stop the consistent 5-7 yard runs? Two years ago UC made it hard for WVU to consistently run the ball, but gave up a ton of big plays (Oklahoma had a similar issue in the bowl game). Last season UC limited their big plays, but could not stopped the sustained drives. West Virginia when clicking is nearly and impossible offense to solve. By this time their defense should have gained experience as well. I think WVU has to be the favorite to win the Big East and a favorite to make the national title. Loss

Friday November 14 @ Louisville- I want this game. The Bearcats need this game and yet this game really scares me. Louisville still has talent, but without Brian Brohm I think the Bearcat defense should be able to limit what Louisville can do. If Grutza and the offense hold their own the Bearcats should win… Should… (last season for about 1 hour UC held the nations longest winning streak… LSU lost to Kentucky, but an hour later Louisville beat UC… it still pains me… I want this game) Leaning Towards WIN

Saturday November 22 vs. Pittsburgh- It’s time. It’s time to beat Pittsburgh. I’ll get into Pittsburgh in more depth when I do my Big East preview… but basically I just do not think they have proven enough to be a conference favorite at this point. I know they have had UC’s number, but this is UC’s best team ever…the game is in Cincinnati. WIN

Saturday November 29 vs. Syracuse- The worst team in the conference on senior night. WIN

December 6 @ Hawaii- I am still furious the Bearcats are playing this game. On my NCAA Football 2009 dynasty I removed it from the season on general principal. They do not deserve a trip from anyone. Last time we went down there was probably the most ridiculous game I ever watched. I was furious. I know it could be good for the program, I know it makes UC the only team in the country to schedule 3 BCS teams from the prior season, but I do not want to play it. That being said, I’ll take some satisfaction in stomping them to pieces. WIN … I hope 125-0

Without Mauk I have the Bearcat’s win range of records for the regular season as 9-4 to 11-2. I am going to settle on 10-3. That would be 10-3, 5-2 in the Big East…which I am projecting would be a tie for second place finish and a trip to either the Gator Bowl, or Car Care Bowl (one hopes). The upside I have for a Grutza led team is 11-2 (6-1)…and probably missing out on a BCS bowl… but who knows. I love this team. I love the defense and think the potential of the offense is great.


Game by Game with Mauk


Thursday August 28 vs. Eastern Michigan- Once again a tune-up for the Cats. The Defense will be dominant, the offense will put up big numbers, the backups will get time to play. WIN

The first game where Mauk makes a difference comes in week 2. The UC offense should be better already than they were at any point the prior season. I think the defense is better than they were last season. It will be hot… Oklahoma will be ready for UC and they are also very very good. They do not lose at home very often. I love the opportunity. I think the cats can do it. I think we can spread them out and make their defense work (they struggled with some spread teams last year like Texas Tech and WVU). Ultimately I think it might be too much to ask, but the cans can certainly win this game. Leaning towards LOSS

Saturday September 20 vs. Miami (OH) - Another game the Bearcats should be able to clean up in. Mauk plays this year, Miami cries again, everyone goes home happy. WIN

Saturday September 27 vs. Akron- Another MAC team, another win. WIN

Friday October 3 @ Marshall - UC controlled the game against Marshall last season at home. This year they take their act to the road. Marshall could be better this season, they are often tough in Huntington. Ultimately the Bearcats pull away. WIN

Saturday October 11 vs. Rutgers- Rutgers comes back to Cincinnati for the first time since UC ended their perfect season and National Title hopes. It’s the second straight year this will be UC’s Big East opener. The Cats prevailed last year and will prevail again at home. WIN

Saturday October 25 @ Connecticut - Two weeks to prepare, and what I think is an ideal matchup for UC. UConn needs to run the ball to be successful, they will not run it on UC. As long as UC takes care of the ball I see this as another victory. WIN

Saturday October 30 vs. USF - Probably UC’s most enticing home game. With Mauk I just don’t see UC losing at home this year. It’s possible USF is better than I think, but I just see UC as the clear number two with Mauk back. WIN (scares me some)

Saturday November 8 @ West Virginia - UC has just not solved WVU. Is this the year the defense can both limit the big plays and stop the consistent 5-7 yard runs? Two years ago UC made it hard for WVU to consistently run the ball, but gave up a ton of big plays (Oklahoma had a similar issue in the bowl game). Last season UC limited their big plays, but could not stopped the sustained drives. West Virginia when clicking is nearly and impossible offense to solve. That being said, Mauk and UC’s offense (which by the end of the season I think would be the most prolific in UC history) should be ready to test that WVU defense. I think WVU has to be the favorite to win the Big East and a favorite to make the national title. It’s why it is hard for me to pick UC in this game, and much as I want to. Leaning Toward Loss

Friday November 14 @ Louisville- With Mauk I think the offense goes down and scores a bunch on Louisville. I think our defense is better suited to go against Cantwell than the supremely talent Brohm (who isn’t?). WIN (scares me some)

Saturday November 22 vs. Pittsburgh- Not sold on Pittsburgh. WIN

Saturday November 29 vs. Syracuse- The worst team in the conference on senior night. WIN

December 6 @ Hawaii- Ok with Mauk, I have to change my prediction. WIN … I hope 250-0


My range for Bearcat record with Ben Mauk as QB is 10-3 to 12-0. Let me stipulate a few things. First I do not think UC is going 12-0. They are in my range criteria because I really think the Bearcats can win @ WVU and @ Oklahoma, and likely will beat both U of L and USF. I don’t see us doing all four of those things. I also do not see us losing two games to teams we should beat in the conference this year. I think the defense and offense will be too good for that.

The Bearcats also benefit from playing all of the other teams challenging them in the conference (throwing out WVU) at home. USF, Pittsburgh and Rutgers are all scary teams, but all come to Nippert. My ultimate prediction for UC this season is 11-2 (6-1). That’s a hell of a season. Heck if the game we steal is against WVU, that could mean I Big East title and BCS bid. UC has a chance for great things this season. My full Big East football preview is around the corner. Until that time… OHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHHHHH OH OH OH OH UC!!! Go Bearcats!

My Favorite Match-ups of Round 1

Thursday:

12:20 PM- Xavier vs. Georgia… This is an intriguing match-up to me. I loved this Xavier team for most of the year. I think when 100 percent they are better than the elite eight team from 2004. They have more balance, they have more skill, and they have more depth. Lavender is the best point guard I have seen at X and when he is playing his game this team is so tough to guard. There have been several games this year (Kansas State, Virginia are two examples) when XU has looked pretty unbeatable. I could see X making a run to the elite eight.

However, I could see them losing in the first round as well. They have not looked nearly as good the last few weeks. XU fans are optimistic that Lavender is 100 percent, but even if that is the case will they be in rhythm and playing their best basketball at this time. Plus, if you ask Xavier fans which 14 seed they would want to play would they prefer Boise State, Cal State Fullerton, Cornell, or Georgia. I think the clearly answer is not Georgia. They have athletes that can compete with XU and they just made on of the more unbelievable basketball runs I have ever seen. They won four games in four days(two on the same day) to win a major conference tournament… clearly Georgia has the potential to play. I think XU is going to win by 10-15 points, but this game could easily go the other way.

12:30 Michigan State vs. Temple… Temple has been playing good basketball since A10 play began. They finished alone in second place and they won the A10 conference tournament. Christmas is one heck of a player for Temple and can get hot at any time. I have not been very impressed with Michigan State or anyone in the Big 10 for that matter. In fact you can make the case that night in and night out Temple is tempted just as much in the A10 as Michigan State is in the Big 10. If Drew Neitzel is not hitting, Michigan State could easily go down. This is one of my first round upsets.

2:30 Marquette vs. Kentucky… I honestly do not think Kentucky can win this game. Kentucky has struggled to win away from home all season, not winning one game against a team in the RPI top 140. I see no reason to believe that will change against Marquette. So why is the game interesting? Well, I do love watching Kentucky lose.

7:10 Kansas State vs. USC… This is the game everyone is talking about and with good reason. The obvious connection for the national media is Beasley vs. Mayo…and the obvious connection for those from Cincinnati is Walker vs. Mayo because of the North College Hill connection. However, I look at this game and merely think about what might have been. I see three of the top players in the country playing on the same floor, three players I could watching run the floor in Bearcat uniforms… catching passes from Devon Downey and catching an earful from Bob Huggins. Through all the great talent this game will be bitter sweet for me, because I’ll think about where UC could be this season and the chances they could have to win a National Title. As great of a year as Xavier is having it would have been an afterthought to where UC could have been this very season.

7:20 Winthrop vs. Washington State… No one else probably cares about this, but I went to Winthrop for a year and this game has some personal significance to me. Winthrop is not nearly the team they have been the past two years, when they lost on a great Chris Lofton shot against Tennessee in the first round as a 15 seed and last year beat Notre Dame in the first round. The Eagles lost great scorers like Terrell Martin and Craig Bradshaw as well as other valuable players. Their coach, Greg Marshall, took the job at Wichita State during the off-season. That did not stop the Eagles from rolling through the Big South Tournament this year. They won their championship behind a ridiculous scoring effort from Michael Jenkins. Taj McCullough and Chris Gaynor have the needed tournament experience to not be phased by this match-up. The Eagles do not score like they once did, but they still get after it on defense and they will certainly not be phased by anyone. Washington State, though a better team, is a good match-up for Winthrop. The Cougars are not going to score a ton of point, so with a good offensive performance from a few guys the Eagles could really challenge. I see Washington State pulling it out, but never count out that college in Rock Hill, South Carolina.

9:30 Arizona vs. West Virginia… Bob Huggins, Bob Huggins, Bob Huggins. We miss you Bob Huggins. That Alexander guy can play some hoops too.

9:40 George Mason vs. Notre Dame… Can the Mason magic be reborn in 2008. Let’s hope so, because no one wants to watch Harangody whine and cry for longer than one game. I swear the man has never committed a foul in his life and clearly he gets mugged every play. Words do not do justice my loathing of Luke… hopefully the George Mason magic will show him the door in the first round, for a second straight season.

Friday:

12:25 Gonzaga vs. Davidson… A great match-up of non-major teams. People like to argue Gonzaga is not a mid-major…I say who cares. The fact is Gonzaga is a likeable team because they have built a winning tradition outside of the power conferences. Clearly the WCC is not the PAC Ten… so Gonzaga can claim to not be mid-major, but they do still represent the little guy every season. Davidson ran off 22 straight in a pretty bad conference… Honestly, I know they are good…I do not know how good. I have seen Gonzaga beat teams, but have yet to see Davidson do it. I think this game is a coin-clip, but gun to my head I stay with team that continually does it… Gonzaga.

12:30 Western Kentucky vs. Drake… The early Friday games are a time for great non-major match-ups. Western Kentucky’s Courtney Lee is the best player on the floor in this game…hands down. Drake is the best story in college basketball this season. They start two former walk-ons (one was the Missouri Valley Player of the Year). They ran away with what has been the best non-major conference since the demise of CUSA in the Missouri Valley. They play 3-2 match-up zone, but practice in man-to-man to really work on their defensive principals, and their coach gives them the green light to shoot as soon as the cross half court. I really like watching Drake and would love to see them be the latest Missouri Valley team to make a run.

2:30 South Alabama vs. Butler… Honestly, I think Butler is a better team. I also have said that I believe they were fairly seeded and believe this is as good of a first round match-up as they could have asked for. Another battle of two non-majors… it’s becoming the theme of the morning.

2:45 San Diego vs. Uconn… Uconn has often looked great this year. They also ran my Bearcats into the ground to end the season and kept their starters in until about 3 minutes to go (a move I supported because if UC lets a team get up by 50 much of it has to do with a lack of intensity… teach those kids a lessen). San Diego has looked dangerous. They won the difficult West Coast Conference as well as won at Kentucky. They have some very good players. I think Uconn ultimately prevails…but it’s an intriguing game.

7:10 St Josephs vs. Oklahoma… This one is interesting because it should be close and is a great upset possibility. Nearly everyone is picking it. I’ll be honest I did as well. I had no intention of picking St Josephs going into the dance and against any other 6 seed I probably do not. Honestly, I just have not been impressed with the Sooners.

7:20 Siena vs. Vandy… Talk about another great upset possibility. Vanderbilt does not win games away from home. Siena has played St Josephs and Syracuse well this year and already has a win over #3 seed Stanford. Vanderbilt is a team of shooters and teams of shooters are often prone to upsets when the pressure of tournament play comes.

9:40 Villanova vs. Clemson… I love this Clemson team. They are incredibly athletic. They have consistently looked good against UNC and Duke (they really should have beaten UNC at least once…maybe twice). They get after it, they force you into turnovers, and they have the bodies inside to really make it hard on the Wildcats. That being said the Villanova guards are always dangerous.

Everyone…the first two rounds are the most amazing days of the sports year. Game after game after game after game…finish after finish after finish after finish. I’m scheduling my lunch break around game endings and trying to get through work so I can get home for the next endings. My mini TV is out and ready to go for when I am not supposed to be watching basketball (as it has been since the 7th grade). This is perfection… this is what sports fans live for. Now if I could just get over the fact that for a 3rd straight season my Bearcats have failed to go dancing. Hell, they failed to win a game in the CBI… (I’ll have more on their season at a later date when I am in a particularly self loathing mood)

As for how I think the dance plays out:

Sleeper Teams (7 seeds or lower that can make the sweet 16 / elite 8)

West Virginia – I love the way they match-up with Duke and Xavier… the problem is they still have to get by Arizona.

Butler – I have them losing to Tennessee, but I could definitely see that game going the other way.

Indiana- Again I do not like their match-up with UNC and I really do not know what to expect with them…so there is no way I can pick them to win more than 1 game…but they are dangerous.

Final Four Spoilers (4 seeds or lower that can crash the party in San Antonio)

Clemson - I have them taking out Kansas. I just really like this Clemson team and have no reason to believe Kansas can perform in the dance when it matters.

Pittsburgh- I have them taking out Memphis… that’s two 1 seeds going down in the sweet 16. If they were not playing the elite eight game in Texas I’d have them in the Final Four. They are getting healthy…when 100 percent they can really beat you. Their run through the Big East Tournament was impressive. (Of Course the Orangeman made a similar run and were ousted in round one two years ago)

Southern California – They have so much talent and are pretty well coached… It is truly difficult to pick against them. They could give Wisconsin and Georgetown fits with their talent and athleticism.

Teams I Love (Teams I think are best suited for a run)

UCLA- First of all they have a great draw. I think Uconn could be a very challenging game, because Uconn is as talented as anyone, however, they have the weakest two seed and the weakest 3 seed in their bracket. I could see them matching up with the West Virginia/Arizona winner in the elite eight. Second, they have been there the past two seasons. This year they have more talent than either of those teams. They will be more prepared and it will be impossible to rattle them. And finally, they have one of the top 5 coaches in college basketball at the moment.

Georgetown- I loved them last year, I love them this year. In the end, last year Oden was too much for Hibbert. I do not see anyone that is going to be that way this season. I think Georgetown is built for March. Their offense may keep teams in some games, but they are one of the few teams that is built to score when scoring gets tough and the defense picks up. They run their offense because it will consistently get shots against good defense. I think the Hoyas are playing better defense than they have played the past two seasons.

Texas- They won’t be challenged in the first two rounds…I really think that. Then they get to play the next two rounds in Texas. That is a great setup for a run to the final four.

My Final Four
UNC, Georgetown, Texas, UCLA

Championship
UCLA over Georgetown

Thoughts on the 2008 Selection Process

• I felt by in large the NCAA Committee did a very good job with the selection process. There is always going to be debate over the last 3 or 4 teams and 3 or 4 teams that were not chosen. I do not think the Committee chose any team this year that had failed to do enough to be in the discussion for a bid. (unlike say two years ago when Air Force and Utah State combined for ZERO top 50 RPI wins while top 25 RPI Missouri State and Cincinnati with their wins over a 4 seed, 5 seed, 6 seed and 7 seed two of which were away from home…were not invited) The fact is every team that was not chosen had the opportunity to get in. Had Syracuse beaten Villanova they would have added another quality victory and would have taken their place. Heck if Syracuse had not lost to South Florida there would be more discussion. VCU did not get any top 50 RPI wins. Ohio State refused to win games outside of Columbus. Virginia Tech lost too often and had too few good wins. Each of these teams had opportunities to get in during the regular season and failed to do so.

• More importantly every team has the opportunity to win their conference tournament. Every year at this time you hear coaches whining about getting more teams into the Big Dance. The problem is there is always going to be a cutoff and there are always going to be those upset that they did not get a bid, such is life. As it stands the NCAA includes everyone through automatic bids (in the form of Conference Tournament Champs in every league except but the Ivy League). Even if your accomplishments are questionable through the end of league play you have the opportunity to play until you lost from your conference tournament on to the national championship. Georgia won 4 games in the SEC this season then went on to win 4 games in 4 days to keep their season alive. That is the beauty of conference tournaments… for all but the 34 at large teams they are the beginning of do or die basketball. The 300+ division one teams' season will not end until they lose. Georgia’s amazing run through the SEC is every bit as special as any run you will witness in the NCAA tourney. This play until you lose aspect of conference tournaments and then the NCAA tournament is the most special part of college basketball.
  
  
• Having said all that my biggest disagreement on who got in vs. who did not was the selection of Kentucky over Arizona State. My biggest beef with Kentucky was their inability tow in a meaningful game away from Rupp all season, to me that is a huge fault. Their finish was ultimately what put UK over the top. Their wins did include Tennessee, Arkansas and Vanderbilt so they certainly had some quality to their resume. However, Arizona State beat Xavier, Stanford, and USC. They also swept Arizona and split with Oregon. They were ultimately hurt because they played about 10 horrendous teams (200-300+ RPIs) when other schools were playing teams that were merely bad (100-150 RPIs). Ultimately that was too much to overcome, but I think they did more than Kentucky on the whole. That being said Arizona State should have scheduled better and should have been better down the stretch (5-10 to end the season). Though I disagree with the committee, Arizona State has no one to blame but themselves.
  
  
• I felt Tennessee was the strongest two seed. A good case can even be made that based on the body of work Tennessee was not only a one seed, but the strongest one seed. Therefore them having to play in the region with the number 1 overall seed and possibly the strongest 3 seeds seems unfair.
  I thought Vanderbilt was seeded too high. They have not really been able to win meaningful games away from home this season either. I felt a team like Clemson which has looked great against top notch competition; even beating Duke on a neutral site deserved a 4 instead.
  
  
• I think the Committee did a very good job with Georgia. I felt like they would be hard to seed, because they’d have to do a ton of shifting because clearly Georgia was placed far below where the last at large team. To have the brackets ready for them winning the SEC tourney, clearly they already had the alternatives in place before the SEC tourney ended. That being said I am sure Xavier would much rather be playing Cornell or Boise State. Athletically the Bulldogs are one challenging 14 seed. Then again Xavier was in Georgia’s position a few years ago and were a more aggravating 14 seed than Gonzaga would have hoped to draw. Interesting how something like that can come full circle in a matter of two years.
  
  
• I thought Butler was seeded correctly. They have a gaudy record, but only 1 top 50 RPI win. I know they can play, but they lost their chance at a better seed when they lost at home to Drake. That being said, sometimes the draw is more important than the seed. If you are a Butler fan would you rather be playing South Alabama as a tend seed in the first round, or Villanova as a 12? Butler may be better set to win one game and would certainly be a dangerous match-up for Tennessee in round 2.
  
  
  Coming up this week:
  
  I’ll share my most intriguing first round match-ups, give some information on where upsets could occur, and offer some predictions on how the NCAA Tournament will play out.

NCAA Seeding Projections

Here is what my NCAA seeding projections look like. There were a few seed changes due to conflicts of NCAA rules. For instance teams from the same conference cannot play in the first two rounds. As a result Arizona was bumped to the highest 12 seed, which moved VCU up. There was some shifting of 8 vs 9 and 7 vs 10 games to avoid teams from the same conference from playing each other in the first two rounds. Conference Champions are in BOLD. I assumed Arkansas would win when making this projection.

All day today my last four in were:
Arizona State
VCU
Oregon
Virginia Tech

The Last Four Out were:
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Ohio State
Dayton

Now obviously Georgia winning would knock Virginia Tech out as far as my projections go. The problem is where to place them. I am going to go ahead and just replace them with the last at-large team Virginia Tech. That puts them above teams like Western Kentucky, San Diego which probably had better years. However, with 20 minutes until the committee actually puts out their results it would take a lot of work to reseed everyone and shift people. This works easier. I am anxious to see how the committee handles Georgia, because they are certainly having that same problem.

If I had to guess on the teams I am most likely to miss on they would be Arizona State on the in...and Kentucky on the out.

East (Charlotte)

1. UNC

16. Coppin State / Mt St Mary’s

8. UNLV

9. Mississippi State

4. Clemson

13. George Mason

5. Drake

12. Western Kentucky

3. Stanford

14. Cal State Fullerton

6. Butler

11. St Joseph

2. Wisconsin

15. Belmont

7. Arkansas

10. Temple

West (Phoenix)

1. UCLA

16. Mississippi Valley State

8. Texas A & M

9. BYU

4. Xavier

13. Cornell

5. Marquette

12. Oregon

3. Louisville

14. Oral Roberts

6. Washington State

11. VCU

2. Texas

15. Austin Peay

7. West Virginia

10. South Alabama

South (Houston)

1. Memphis

16. UT Arlington

8. Kent State

9. Kansas State

4. Notre Dame

13. San Diego

5. Michigan State

12. Georgia

3. Duke

14. Winthrop

6. USC

11. Villanova

2. Georgetwon

15. UMBC

7. Oklahoma

10. Davidson

Midwest (Detroit)

1. Kansas

16. American

8. Gonzaga

9. Miami (Fl)

4. UConn

13. Siena

5. Vanderbilt

12. Arizona

3. Pitt

14. Boise state

6. Purdue

11. Arizona State

2. Tennessee

15. Portland State

7. Indiana

10. Baylor

Where Teams SHOULD Rank on the Bubble

It is very difficult to predict what the NCAA Selection Committee will do, because their criteria seems to be very subjective. They do have a list of things they look at, but often to justify who gets in they stress different criteria. My criteria for the ranking the teams on the bubble is basically as follows:

1. I don't want to rank who is the most talented or who I believe is the BEST team...I want to rank who has done the most to warrant a bid. I value winning games against other tournament teams and winning games against other teams on the bubble. It is also important to prove you can win games away from home. A team that has shown an ability to win games against multiple NCAA teams away from home will get favorable treatment.
2. I have one slight bias. I tend to favor Conference Champions from small conferences over teams from major conferences with a lacking resume. A team like George Mason a few years ago receives very few chances to play teams from the major conferences. If they have shown they can compete with those teams AND been the dominant team in their conference I am inclined to give them the opportunity in the NCAA over a team like say Syracuse from this year which yea has some good wins but has not really done quite enough with the opportunities they have been given. Two teams this year that fit that mold are South Alabama who I have in without being on the bubble and Virginia Commonwealth.

With that here is how I have the bubble. Later today I will be unveiling my NCAA field. The field will not be who I think the committee will chose because I cannot read minds. Instead it is simply who I believe has done enough and deserves to get in.

St Josephs- They beat Xavier twice… they beat fellow bubble team Villanova. They have a win on the road against A-10 tourney champ Temple and two wins over fellow bubble team UMass. I think that is enough to get them in and believe they are in the strongest position among the bubble teams.

Arizona- Arizona played the number 2 strength of schedule. They have victories over Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State (twice), Southern Cal, as well as fellow bubble team Houston. They lost an overtime game to possible #1 seed Kansas, a game to number 1 seed Memphis, and two games to possible number 1 seed UCLA (once by two points). They only won 4 of 12 down the stretch with half of those wins coming against Oregon State. Arizona is a really tough team to place because they have some huge victories… but really did not help themselves when they needed to down the stretch. Though they have what overall is the strongest profile of the PAC ten bubble teams Arizona State and Oregon, they also went 0-4 against them.

Villanova- Villanova gets credit for tough calls against NC State and Georgetown… Pitt, Marquette, and Uconn are all very good wins that go a long way to getting Villanova in the dance. Beating Syracuse twice away from Villanova is big especially because the second was a do or di elimination game. Like many of the teams on the bubble they have not done much away from home.

Arizona State- These PAC ten teams are a bubble headache. No team illustrates that more than Herb Sendek’s Sun Devils. Arizona State played a slew of absolutely abysmal teams to start the season. The list included Princeton (331 RPI), LSU(171), Cal Poly(217), Florid Gulf Coast (293), Delaware State (205), Coppin State (219), Montana State (235), Idaho (299), and St Francis PA (314). They have also played Oregon State twice in PAC ten play (269). These games have effectively killed the Arizona State RPI. However, amidst all of this they beat some pretty good teams. They swept fellow PAC ten bubble team Arizona and split with the other fellow bubble team Oregon. They also managed victories over Stanford and USC in the conference and Xavier outside of the conference. They have 5 RPI top 50 victories.

Virginia Commonwealth University- My one bias in selecting tournament teams is I tend to favor a small conference team that won its conference over a major conference team with a lacking resume. VCU has less opportunities against the top notch teams… here is what they did. They lost to NCAA teams Miami, and Arkansas in close games. They beat two teams on the wrong side of the bubble Maryland and Houston. They also won their bracket buster game against MAC runner up Akron. They won the very difficult Colonial conference by 3 full games (the league has had multiple bids the last two years). With the resumes on the bubble not being as strong this year and the major teams on the bubble not stepping up and winning games to claim their spot… I am inclined to give a team like VCU a chance.

Oregon- Their season sweep of Arizona gives them a case for being ahead of Arizona in PAC Ten pecking order. However, Oregon only managed to go 1-8 against the PAC ten top 4 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, and USC). Their victory over Stanford took place early in the conference season. Their best non-conference win is over Kansas State. They also managed to beat fellow PAC ten bubble teams’ Arizona State late in the season. This means Oregon went 3-1 against the other PAC ten bubble teams. That’s certainly their biggest card with the NCAA selection committee.

Virginia Tech- They had a difficult start to the season… This start included an OT loss to Butler, and a thrashing at the hands of Gonzaga. They did finish alone in forth place in a very difficult ACC (ahead of NCAA team Miami). When they needed to perform down the stretch they did, winning 5 of 7 to end the year. Their only losses were to Clemson by 1 and UNC on a last second shot in the ACC semis. Their victory over Miami was big and it was in an elimination type environment. If VT had lost their NCAA chances were over. VT’s biggest problem is the Miami victory is their only RPI top 50 win. The Maryland sweep is not looking as important because Maryland has fallen off the bubble.

Kentucky- The negatives… Kentucky has ZERO top 250 non-conference wins and they have ZERO road wins against teams in the RPI top 140. They are 5-10 vs. the RPI top 100 with losses to Houston, UAB two teams that are on the wrong side of the bubble. They did, however, go 12-4 in the SEC. They beat Tennessee and Arkansas as well as Vandy in overtime. (though they lost by 40 @ Vandy)

Ole Miss- If you were simply looking at their overall resume and ignoring conference records it would hold up very nicely with some of these other teams. They have wins over South Alabama, Winthrop and a great win over Clemson in the non-conference. They have wins over Arkansas, Mississippi State and Vandy within the conference. They are 2-1 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 against RPI 26-50. Ole Miss’ biggest problem is they had a month in the SEC where they really struggled to win games. They finished with a losing record in the conference as a result. Ole Miss could have overcome that by beating Georgia and Kentucky in the SEC tourney. At that point I believe their resume would have been strong enough, because really taken as a whole it’s probably better than anyone else’s on the bubble. Ole Miss probably lost their chance by losing to a mediocre Georgia team in a do or die situation.

Ohio State- Ohio State’s biggest problem is they have not won away from Columbus all season. Their best road victory was over Penn State. They do have victories over bubble teams Syracuse, and Florida to go with late season home wins over Michigan State and Purdue. They had a chance to get a big neutral site victory over Michigan State but were unable to. Among OSU’s road losses this season are a 65-46 thrashing from Butler as well as losses to not very good Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan teams. OSU simply did not perform well enough outside of Columbus to warrant and at-large bid.

Dayton- Great wins over Pitt, Louisville... beat Akron… too many losses in A-10

Illinois State- Simply did not do enough. The Missouri Valley was not as strong this season. Illinois State finished in a strong second, however, they really have no key wins. They failed to beat Drake in their three opportunities. Their two RPI top 50 wins were both against Creighton, a team that is not being considered for a spot.

Syracuse- The thrashing they received from Villanova effectively ended their chances. They did win once at Nova, but that win has been negated by losing to them twice. They have victories over Georgetown and Maryland to their credit as well as a victory over fellow bubble team St Joes. They really faced a brutal Big East schedule down the stretch so their slow finish should not be held against them too much. The loss to South Florida is also a killer. Losses to bubble teams Umass and OSU don’t help their case either.

Umass- Not enough good wins to balance out schedule

UAB- UK thrashing looks better now. UAB lost their chance when they got killed by Memphis and lost early in the CUSA tourney to Tulane. They really probably had to win the CUSA tourney anyways.

New Mexico- 1 win against the RPI top 50, 3^rd in the Mountain West pecking order…simply not good enough.

The Chad Johnson Chronicles

As a Bengals fan, what defines Chad Johnson the most to me is consistency. Chad Johnson has been over the 1000 yard mark as a receiver for 6 straight seasons. He is the only receiver in the history of the NFL to lead his conference in receiving four straight seasons. That streak ultimately came to an end this year, but you cannot pin that on Chad who turned in what was statistically his most productive year as a professional. Chad is marked by not only the consistency of his production, but the consistency of his personality. Chad is flamboyant…he brings an enthusiasm to the game and he shows it in a way that is different from most players in the NFL. He celebrates, he talks trash, he wears the wrong colored shoes, he sets aside money to pay off future fines from the NFL, and he continually interacts with the opposing players on the field. Chad has consistently worked hard. In practice he wants to run every route even though many routes are meant to get second stringers reps. He trains hard and consistently attends Bengals workout sessions. Chad has been known to call Marvin Lewis in the middle of the night, because football is constantly on his mind. He’s consistent in eating at McDonalds every morning and he’s consistent in that he has always stood up for his teammates. No one has ever heard Chad Johnson blame another teammate for a loss. They have seen passion on the sideline, they have heard him argue with teammates in the heat of battle, but at the end of the game Chad has taken more than his share of responsibility and has never put the weight of the Bengals failures on his teammates.

It is strange then that though Chad Johnson has remained remarkably consistent the perception of Chad Johnson has changed dramatically throughout the city of Cincinnati in the last half year. Chad has gone from a hero to much of the city, an athlete that Cincinnati fans loved and were proud to call their own to one that is under intense scrutiny. Chad’s flamboyance has gone from something that makes him unique and entertaining, to something makes him a distraction to the team. Once viewed as a hardworking performer with a strong personality fans now see Ocho Cinco as selfish.

When did this perception change? It’s easy to point to an article written by Paul Daugherty that appeared in the Cincinnati Enquirer on October 21^st of 2007. In the article title “Is Chad Worth the Trouble?” Paul compares Johnson to a scorpion. He offers this parable to his readers:

A scorpion asks a turtle for a ride across a lake. The turtle laughs and tells the scorpion he's crazy. "If I give you a ride, you'll sting me,'' he says. The scorpion replies, "Why would I do that? If I sting you in the middle of the lake, we'll both die.''

The turtle agrees to give the scorpion a lift. Halfway across the lake, the scorpion stings the turtle. As both are drowning, the turtle asks the scorpion why he stung him. "It's what I do,'' the scorpion said. (Paul Daugherty, “Is Chad Worth the Trouble?”)

After the parable Paul equated Chad to the scorpion and indicated that Chad and the Bengals are both drowning together. The implication was that Chad’s antics are the “sting” killing the Bengals. That was a far cry from the book that Paul released just a season ago which tried to explain Chad Johnson and viewed him as a key part of the Bengals organization. Chad had not changed in that period, but Paul’s perception of what Chad was and how it affected the team certainly did.

Had Bengals Fans’ perception of Chad already began to shift before that article was written? Paul Daugherty could have easily just been building on a tension that was out there reinforcing the beliefs of many that already existed. As someone who loves the Bengals and has followed Chad’s career closely it seems to me nothing has really changed. Chad is the man he has been from day one. Chad is just as valuable today as he was during the Bengals 2005 division championship season. What follows is a Chronicle of the Chad Johnson era of Bengals football. It begins with the moment Chad came onto the national scene and my hope is that it ends with Chad in a Bengals uniform bringing a Superbowl to the city of Cincinnati:

Sunday November 9, 2003: The Bengals had been losing for years. In fact they had not had a winning season since 1990. The 12 prior seasons had included 2 years where the Bengals only won 4 games, 4 years the Bengals only won 3 games, and had reached its low the previous season when the Bengals only managed 2 wins. Yet it was this day after a win against the Houston Texans when the Bengals improved to 4-5, just one game below .500 where Chad Johnson put both himself and his team in the national spotlight. Chad guaranteed the Bengals would beat the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Chad’s guarantee apparently came as no surprise to Marvin Lewis. When questioned about it he responded, "He guaranteed me last week that he was going to do that. I just told him about what goes along with that ---responsibilities." (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=1658697&type=story) We should have known then, this was who Chad Johnson is and who he would continue to be throughout his time with the Bengals.

Sunday November 16, 2003: The Bengals make good on Chad Johnson’s promise. Chad participates in an elaborate end zone celebration with teammate Peter Warrick pretending to take pictures as Warrick gives a variety of different poses. The Bengals had taken on the personality Chad showed. They were playing with a swagger…they were confident and given that the season before the Bengals had been 2-14 people were taking notice. This was a new Bengals with new confidence…and people loved it.

Sunday December 14, 2003: The Bengals emerged victorious against the San Francisco Forty-Niners. The win was their 7^th of their last 9 games and moved them to 8-6. The playoffs loomed as possibility for Bengals. Throughout the season Chad Johnson had been fined for wearing different color shoes and other flamboyant acts which have often defined his character. After a touchdown Chad unveiled the sign that said “Dear NFL: Please don’t fine me again. Merry Christmas!!!” Fans loved it. It was another act of personality for Chad. The swagger was there and this team was red hot. They had gone from 2-14 the year before to inches from the playoffs. Though the Bengals would lose their final two games and miss the playoffs they were on the rise. The city was excited. The team had risen from the ashes and had a swagger personified in their number 1 receiver…Chad Johnson. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1686454)

Chad’s 2003 Season:

Chad Johnson made his first pro-bowl in 2003. He led the AFC with 1355 yards receiving and average 15.1 yards per catch. He also found the end zone 10 times. Chad’s Bengals finished 8-8.

Chad’s 2004 Season:

I won’t go into this season in as much detail. The Bengals started off slow due to adjusting to a new quarterback, but finished strong. Chad continued with his flamboyant personality. His most famous antic of the season occured leading up to the October 17 showdown with the Cleveland Browns. Chad sent the entire Browns defensive backfield some Pepto Bismol. As Johnson put it, "I sent all the Browns DBs some Pepto Bismol, to cure them of their sickness. They're going to get tired of covering me." (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2004-10-13-johnson-browns_x.htm) Johnson actually had one of his worst games of the season that week, but his 2004 season was another big one. Chad made his second straight pro-bowl leading the AFC in the receiving for the second straight season. This time he had 1274 yards and 9 touchdowns. Once again the end of the season left the Bengals excited. This team had personality and offensively they were coming together. With Carson, Chad, TJ, Rudi and a strong offensive line fans believed that the Bengals were prime to make the playoffs. The swagger was there in the jungle.

“Who covered 85 in 05?”

In perhaps Chad’s gutsiest trash talk yet Chad hung a sign over his locker asking the question “Who covered 85 in 05?” For each game Chad had listed the corner he expected to match with him and if that corner could cover him that game Chad would check yes. If Chad felt the corner had lost the match-up Chad would check no. Midway through the season Chad described the motivation saying this: "It's nothing but a challenge. Whoever lines up against me, I need him at his highest level of play. Actually, I want him mad before the game even starts." (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/2005-11-17-johnson-cover_x.htm) Chad thrives on his energy and enthusiasm for the game. Throughout the season Chad would do the river dance, propose to a cheerleader, putt the ball with the pylon, and any other stunt he could think of to celebrate touchdowns. Behind Chad’s receiving, Carson’s passing, a stellar offensively line, good running by Rudi, a great change of pace back in Chris Perry and an opportunistic ball hawking defense the Bengals had their first winning season since 1991.

Though the Bengals would clinch the division on December 18 in Detroit, it was a cold December Sunday in Pittsburgh that defined the Bengals season. The Bengals offense simply refused to be stopped and like they had all season the defense made the opportunistic plays when they need a stop. There has never been a more thrilling moment for me as a Bengals fan then standing in the Pittsburgh stands in the freezing cold and watching Tab Perry drag a Steeler 30 yards to the 1 yard line to set up a key Bengals score. The Bengals believed in themselves. They were young; they had great players on offense and were ball hawks on defense. After the game Chad Johnson spoke in his usual way comparing the Steelers to black and white televisions and equating the Bengals to the new plasmas. He said it used to be the Steelers time, now it is the Bengals time.

The Bengals won the AFC North. Chad Johnson led the AFC in receiving for the third straight season this time getting 1432 yards and 9 touchdowns. He was selected to his third straight pro-bowl. In three seasons the Bengals had gone from 2-14 to division champs. Chad had continued to be flamboyant and outlandish. He had continued to want the ball and strive to be the best. Chris Collinsworth described Chad that season saying: “There's a really fine line that's hard to distinguish between, 'I want the ball because it's going to make me rich and famous,' and 'I want the ball because I can help our team win.' I really believe Chad Johnson is on the team's side. In Chad's mind, when he's complaining, it's because he thinks it's in the team's best interest.” (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/2005-10-19-johnson-feature_x.htm)

Sunday January 8, 2006: Could this have been the day where perception of Chad Johnson really started to change? There was no drastic overnight shift. Bengals fans still loved Chad Johnson throughout the next season. Still halftime of the Bengals vs. Steelers playoff game has been relived over and over again. The Bengals had gone into Pittsburgh just one month earlier and changed the guard in the AFC North. The Steelers had been fighting for weeks to even make the playoffs. This was the Bengals’ time…Chad had said it after the meeting in Pittsburgh, the Steelers’ time was over.

On the first series disaster struck. Carson Palmer dropped back to pass and through a beautiful spiral to a sprinting Chris Henry. The ball landed in Chris Henry’s hands for a huge gain. Paul Brown stadium erupted, only to be silenced seconds later as number 9 lay on the ground in obvious pain. Kneemo will have a special and unpleasant hell awaiting him where he will join the likes of Lenny Brown, Kevin Frey, Nancy Zimpher, Jarrod West, Steve Bartman, and whoever that St Louis player was that landed on Kenyon Martin’s leg. After the play the Bengals built a 17-7 lead behind a heavy dose of Jon Kitna to Kevin Walter. The Steelers however rallied and the game was tied by halftime. Johnson evidentially was emotional at the half. Johnson had been an emotional guy throughout his career. Earlier in the season Carson had mentioned that Chad needs to learn when to hold back. (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/2005-10-19-johnson-feature_x.htm) Chad’s junior college receivers coach had called Johnson at halftime of a game earlier in the season telling him to calm down after he had seen Johnson erupt after a bungled play. Emotion had always been there with Chad, but this time it became big news. The Bengals went on to lose the game. (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/2005-11-17-johnson-cover_x.htm)

Chad’s 2006 Season:

The Bengals 2006 season was marked by the loss of Odell Thurman and David Pollack. These two were expected to be staples of the Bengals linebacking corp. for years to come, neither has played in a Bengals game since week 2 of that season. The Bengals season was up and down. They started brilliantly out of the gate, struggled mid-season, but going into Indy they had righted the ship at 8-5 and were looking like a playoff team once again. Then came the terrible performance at Indy. That was followed by an awful game from Carson in Denver where he missed 4 wide open receivers in the endzone but ultimately drove the Bengals in for the game tying touchdown only to have a botched PAT cost them the game and a playoff spot. Then came the Pittsburgh game where a 39 yard field goal would have placed the Bengals in the playoffs. The Bengals were so close, but the year was ultimately a disappointment. Chad Johnson put together another pro-bowl season…his forth in a row. Chad became the only receiver in NFL history to lead his conference in receiving yards 4 straight years this time racking up 1369 yards and 7 touchdowns. After the season, however, Marvin Lewis started talking about the selfishness of some of the players. Many people speculated he was talking specifically about Chad Johnson.

2007, a year of turmoil:

It would seem difficult to blame Chad for the Bengals early season struggles. He stormed out of the gate in week one with a 95 yard and a touchdown game against the Ravens. There was cause for optimism. The Bengals were 1-0. Chad Johnson unveiled a future hall of fame jersey…the stunt was not held as high as many of his past, but at the time it was largely agreed to be in good fun.

In week two Chad promised he would jump into the dog pound. I was sitting in the dog pound for week 2 and anxious to see what would happen. It looked to me like Chad actually talked to those fans before the game and got their approval. When Chad jumped in, however, those a little further away did not take to kindly and threw stuff at him. Ocho Cinco was criticized greatly for the move particularly because the Bengals were still behind. Still it was hard to argue with Chad’s results. Chad had put up 209 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bengals had lost due to an abysmal defensive performance…nothing more.

In week three Chad put together a 138 yard game. This time he did not find the end-zone and the game ended in a loss.

Week four, another week that will forever define the Chad Johnson year of turmoil. The Bengals lost 34-13 to a Patriots team that stormed out of the gait destroying everyone. After an interception on an important drive before the half Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson got into it. Carson had thought Chad would cut his route in harder and Chad had cut it up field only slightly. The play was a huge killer for a Bengals team driving to stay in the game. Chad finished the game with 53 yards on only 3 catches, but the Bengals had now lost 3 in a row. The season was falling apart and the fight with Carson had not done anything to help.

In week six Carson and Chad would get into it again. A late drive with the game on the line, ended with a Carson Palmer interception. Carson was clearly upset with Johnson after the play. Obviously Chad had not done what Carson expected Chad to do. It was after this game that Paul Daugherty wrote the column comparing Chad Johnson to a scorpion. Paul said that Chad had cut short a route across the middle and then when he asked Carson about it: “Palmer said he wouldn't ‘get into specifics.’ Given that Palmer never calls out teammates in the press, and blames himself when things go bad, it's safe to assume Johnson was at fault.”

What struck me most about that statement was that much the same as Carson I have never seen or heard Chad throw a teammate under the bus. Carson has been the classiest of quarterbacks. He says the right things to the media, he takes responsibility, he doesn’t make a show of himself on the field and he stays out of trouble. Chad has always been enthusiastic, loud, and a showman…but like Carson, Chad has consistently been supportive of teammates and never put the blame on their shoulders. Despite their totally different personality types they both win and lose as a team. The insinuation Daugherty makes by stressing that Palmer never calls out teammates is that Chad does. He also makes the insinuation that Carson takes responsibility when something is his fault and Chad never does…in reality though Chad had already taken responsibility for the INT in the Patriots game at the end of the half and has consistently taken responsibility for areas of his game he wants to improve. (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/2007-10-03-chad-johnson_N.htm)

This did not sit well with me as a Bengals fan and a fan of Johnson. Clearly the article had a much more personal effect on Chad Johnson. The season before Paul Daugherty had released the book Chad: I Can’t Be Stopped. In this book Paul portrayed Chad as a joker. He portrayed him as a hyperactive clown, as a flamboyant personality who thrived because of his enthusiasm. Chad shared with Paul Daugherty his life story, talking about his struggles growing up, how football was instrumental in saving his life, and the important women who helped shape who he is as a man. Chad trusted Daugherty with this information. He believed that when Paul indicated that despite all of his unique traits Chad was a good teammate he meant it. This column was a complete turnaround…Paul must have easily seemed like the scorpion to Chad. This column started making everyone in the local media question Chad Johnson and Johnson’s reaction was to ignore the local media. This only inspired the media to pile on more and more.

I won’t go through the rest of the season week by week. The Bengals struggled for much of the rest of the year. They have struggled for a variety of reasons since the 2005 season. The defensive issues are the most widely publicized and easiest to recognize but I’ll list some of the glaring issues on offense.

1. The Bengals miss Rich Braham. Rich was a fantastic center. He called out protections and rarely got pushed inside. Ghiaciuc is simply not as good. He gets pushed backed in the middle allowing for too much pressure in Carson’s face and making the running backs make a lot of their initial cuts in the backfield. He is also far less experienced at the center position which is a position on the line where experience is really a big deal.

2. Their offensive tackles have been banged up. I would argue in 2005 Willie and Levi were the best set of tackles in the NFL. I was particularly impressed with the way Levi obliterated great pass rushers consistently that season. Anyone who watched the Indianapolis game in 2005 saw Levi just destroy Freeny play after play. Their injuries have really hurt the continuity of the offense.

3. Steinbach was a stud. Ask Cleveland how awesome he is.

4. Rudi has been banged up. The combination of Rudi being hobbled by injuries and a weaker offensive line has really hurt the running game. Without a strong running game the passing game has struggled with consistency.

5. The Bengals have lacked a true change of pace back. People continually underestimate how important Chris Perry was to the Bengals success in 2005. Without that change of pace guy who is actually a threat to take it to the house defenses have really had far less to worry about with the Bengals.

6. Chris Henry has killed us with his immaturity. Chad may ultimately be a bit immature, but he has consistently been on the field, worked his tail off and continually produced. The same cannot be said for Chris Henry.

7. Tab Perry gave us great field position throughout 2005 with his kickoff returns. The Bengals have lacked that ability since his injuries.

I would not even think of including Chad Johnson on that list…he is not why the Bengals have been losing and will not be as long has he continues to work hard and produce, while not throwing teammates under the bus. People may get frustrated with him when we lose, but when we win they do not mind it at all. Chris Collinsworth said it perfectly in Paul Daugherty’s column “Is Chad Worth the Trouble” when he stated, "You have to be realistic about who Chad is. He's about as emotionally high strung as any human being I know. That's great when things are going well. His emotions can drive a locker room. Unfortunately, we're in the middle of the other side of that now.''

As Chad continued to get blamed by the media clearly he was upset. As Chad’s teammates failed to step up and say this is not Chad’s fault it clearly hurt Chad Johnson. Anyone who has followed Chad Johnson’s career understands he is an emotionally high strung guy. Chad continues to be the same guy he has been throughout his time in Cincinnati. There was a time when the team fed off that kind of energy. There was a time when the fans loved it, but in that time the Bengals were the up and coming team. They were poised for great things and Chad was an integral part of that. Now a lot of what made the Bengals so good has changed. The defense and offense have lost a ton of key components that were there for the 2005 run. They have not been adequately replaced.

I firmly believe that if the Bengals step up and come to Chad’s defense he will play here happily. If the players stand up and say “We believe in Ocho Cinco. He is a man who consistently gives us everything he has. He loves to be outlandish, to talk to opposing players, and to celebrate success, but ultimately he wants to win.” If the Bengals stand up and say that Chad will be here and ready to go next season. Chad will continue to do the things that make him great.

This year Chad Johnson failed to lead the league in receiving through no fault of his own. He finished the season with a Bengals record 1440 yards as well as 8 touchdowns. TJ is already leading the way saying: “We have a pretty close team so I would think everybody supported him, but maybe he thinks some guys don't like him. Chad's my guy. I've never had a problem with him. I think he'll be back this year. I think we'll be together again next year playing.” (http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6615)

The Bengals would be crazy to trade Chad. I have heard people in the media constantly say that you win with defensive line and offensive line play. Yes…obviously that is a big deal, but trading Chad won’t get you any guaranteed success there. You simply have to make good decisions and bring in the right people. Go after a guy like Jared Allen to get to the QB. Trading Chad Johnson will kill our cap to even sign draft picks much less a free agent like Allen… it is a bad idea. Chad is Chad everyone. Chad is as consistent a player and personality as there is in the NFL. He has been Chad throughout his time as a Cincinnati Bengal. We celebrated him when we were up and coming, we celebrated him when we were division champs, and then ridiculed him when the Bengals started on the downward trend. Chad has stayed consistent. It is everything around him that has changed. We already know we can win with Chad. We have done it before. If we get the pieces in place around him, and Carson, and TJ we can certainly do it again.