Wednesday, March 11, 2009

First Projection of the Field

Here is my first projection for the NCAA field this selection Sunday. I think it is important to note a few things. There are always a few procedural changes. Protected teams from the same conference cannot play each other until the final four…so for example I flipped three seeds Wake Forest and Villanova to avoid a Sweet 16 clash of Wake Forest and Duke as well as an Elite Eight clash of UCONN and Villanova. Also the committee likes to avoid teams from the same conference meeting in the first two rounds, so there were a few switches made based on that.

I only have 2 SEC teams in my field at this time. I think there is still a good chance another can make the finals to play themselves in(and I think they need to make the finals to do that). Teams that have already won automatic births are in BOLD. Teams that will need an automatic birth to make it have their conference in brackets after their name. I think Providence must beat Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. I think VT, Maryland, and Miami Florida must win two in the ACC tournament. I think Northwestern has to win 2, maybe three. I think Kansas State has to make the finals of the Big 12. My last four in are pretty weak so it will be easy for them to fall out, but others behind have to step up.

I will have one more projection on Selection Sunday, shortly before the brackets are released.

Indianapolis Region

1. Pittsburgh
16. Radford/Alabama State (SWAC)

8. Butler
9. Tennessee

4. Xavier
13. Northern Iowa

5. Missouri
12. Cleveland State

3. Villanova
14. Cornell

6. Arizona State
11. Siena

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State

2. Duke
15. Morehead State

Boston Region

16. Steven F Austin (Southland)

8. Boston College
9. Ohio State

4. Washington
13. North Dakota State

5. Clemson
12. Utah State (WAC)

3. Wake Forest
14. American (Patriot)

6. Marquette
11. Minnesota

7. Utah
10. Michigan

2. Memphis
15. Cal State Northridge (Big West)

Memphis Region

1. North Carolina
16. Chattanooga

8. Texas A&M
9. Arizona

4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky

5. Syracuse
12. VCU

3. Kansas
14. Portland State (Big Sky)

6. California
11. San Diego State

7. Gonzaga
10. Oklahoma State

2. Michigan State
15. Bowling Green (MAC)

Arizona Region

1. Oklahoma
16. Morgan State (MEAC)

8. Dayton
9. BYU

4. Florida State
13. Binghampton (American East)

12. New Mexico

3. Illinois
14. East Tennessee State

6. LSU
11. Creighton

7. Texas
10. Wisconsin

2. Louisville
16. Robert Morris (Northeast)
Last Four In

San Diego State
New Mexico

First Four Out

Kansas State
Miami (Florida)

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
St. Mary’s

Still in the Mix

Rhode Island
South Carolina
Utah State

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