Thursday, September 12, 2019

Total Mismatches



                That was disheartening.  It’s not surprising the Bearcats got run off the field by the Buckeyes.  Ohio State is one of the three most talented teams in the country and assuming Fields can be elite against top competition they are a true national title contender.  However, this game was pretty much a worst-case scenario any way you slice it.  After the blocked field goal there was never a moment you really felt the Bearcats had any chance.  The offensive and defensive lines were both dominated and there were few moments where the Bearcats really threatened.  When they actually did move the ball they made costly mistakes to keep points off the board. It was a brutal game.
                I thought the coaches set the tone for the game early and that tone was, “we’re scared to be here.”  OSU moved the ball on its first drive, but the Bearcat defense eventually got a stop.  A perfect punt pinned Cincinnati back at the one.  The coaches sent the offense on the field and literally wasted a play.  They lined up in an odd, compact formation that had the entire OSU team in middle field.  From that formation they had Ridder sneak for no gain.  What was the best case scenario for that play?  Two yards up the middle?  You’re still handing the ball off in your endzone or passing from your own end zone on 2nd down.  First down is your friend.  It’s how you protect against the safety, by keeping them off balance.  Everyone knew a sneak was coming.  The play call basically ensured UC would give the ball back to OSU where OSU was positioned to get a TD.  That’s exactly what happened.  That scared call exemplified the play all game long.
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                The Bearcats’ 2009 week two matchup could not have been any more of a polar opposite.  The Bearcats returned home to Nippert to take on Southeast Missouri State.  After the beating UC laid on Rutgers, everyone was sure this was a “pick your score,” type game.  The Bearcats wound up picking 70-3.  Their first game had put the Bearcats in the top 25 (number 23).  UC did everything you’d expect in their second game in rolling Southeast Missouri State.  I don’t have much more to say about it.  Two games in and the sky was the limit for the 2009 Bearcats.
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                The bottom line of this game was Cincinnati’s two glaring weaknesses were exposed against superior talent…inexperience on the offensive and defensive lines.  The Bearcat offensive line was pushed around all game and the dominant OSU defensive line gave them no moments of reprieve.  UC couldn’t run the ball and Ridder was under constant duress, particularly when OSU brought any pressure at all.  The defensive line really felt the loss of Broughton and Copeland, two NFL type defensive tackles.  OSU pushed around a talented, young defensive line that simply was out of its depth.  Cincinnati could not overcome those two problem areas. 
                I know they gave up 42 points, but I wasn’t altogether discouraged by the defensive performance.  They had their moments. They got a key stop on the first drive and forced a huge turnover on downs to keep UC in the game early.  I thought you saw the talent at times making an elite Ohio State offense work.  Fields fit the balls into the windows that were there and the defensive line didn’t get enough pressure which opened things up, but overall I thought the defense wasn’t so bad…they were just up against a behemoth.  If the offense gave UC anything, it’s likely a 31-17 type game…not the 42-0 bloodbath we saw.
                What I saw from the offense concerns me, even though Ohio State is the type of elite defense UC won’t see again this season.  Last season the Bearcat offense was mostly good against teams with lesser defensive talent.  They wore teams down with the run and Ridder made plays with his feet and passing down the field.  For the most part they were also exceptional on third down.  However, twice last year it really stood out to me that there wasn’t a plan B.  The UC offense really struggled against above average defenses.  Temple absolutely shut UC down in the second half, as did UCF. UC just couldn’t move the ball or pick up key third downs against the better competition. 
                I know Ohio State is a different level, but I thought the offenses lack of creativity and versatility really stood out against the Buckeyes.  Even lesser talented teams often find ways to create matchups and move the ball against top teams, but that wasn’t the case.  UC wasn’t able to pound the ball on the ground and showed little ingenuity in creating favorable matchups.  This doesn’t have to be the case all year and Ohio State is an outlier matchup for UC.  I doubt UC gets shutout again (and wouldn’t have been shutout here except for two turnovers near the goal line and a blocked FG), but a team like UCF doesn’t have to shut UC out to win.  UC is going to have to be flexible in how they attack the better teams on the schedule.  It was an issue last year, one that I don’t feel any better about after the game against Ohio State. 
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                The Bearcats and Buckeyes have played 6 times since 1999 with the Buckeyes winning all six.  That’s not surprising.  Five of the games were in Columbus.  The Buckeyes are an elite program.  The one game in Cincinnati was not surprisingly the closest despite it being a National Championship Buckeye team.  It’s hard to beat elite programs on their home field.  I’d love to get one into Nippert one day, but until then these are always going to be incredible uphill battles.
                It’s odd that the three UC teams that gave the Buckeyes their best games were probably the three worst Bearcat teams to face them.  Here’s how I’d rank the UC teams that played Ohio State:
1.       2006
2.       2019
3.       2004
4.       2002
5.       2014
6.       1999
You can quibble with the order if you want, but I think that is relatively fair.  The teams that faired the best against the Buckeyes were the 2002, 1999 and 2014.  I think there were a few reasons for that.  I think it’s telling that the three worst performances for UC were with coaches who formerly coached for the Buckeyes.  I don’t think Dantonio or Fickell ever seemed particularly invested in the idea that UC could compete in those games.  They were conservative, they didn’t try to create advantageous matchups or big plays the way they would need to win those games.  Compare that to the three other games UC played against OSU.
        The 2014 Bearcats had an inflated record due to playing a fairly weak schedule, but they had one really strong thing going for them…elite collegiate wide receivers.  The UC staff really took advantage of this and made the game against OSU very interesting for 3 quarters.  This was exemplified by UC repeatedly taking shots down field to Chris Moore, who delivered with 3 catches for 221 yards, all going for touchdowns.  The biggest play of the game was an absurd offensive pass interference call against UC when the OSU defender basically tackled the UC receiver who had him beat.  Everything changed after that and OSU ran away in the 4th quarter, but UC made it interesting with an aggressive attitude.  (UC also had a TD called back on an illegal man downfield call which while technically correct is almost never called when the lineman is only a couple yards past the line of scrimmage). 



        1999 is probably the forgotten UC v. Ohio State game.  I remember how excited I was when I found out I was going to that game.  OSU still had the old, temporary bleachers at the Horseshoe and UC fans were stuffed down there.  1999 might be the weirdest season I can remember as a Bearcat fan.  It was a bad year.  The Bearcats finished 3-8.  They dominated Kent State in week one, but then week two lost to then Division 1AA Troy State (now in the FBS and going by Troy).  They followed that up with the craziest win of my lifetime (not the best or craziest game mind you) beating Ron Dayne’s eventual big ten champion and Rose Bowl champion Wisconsin team.  The next week, UC went to OSU. 
        The Bearcats came out fast.  They went out to a 10-3 lead, spreading the field and letting Kenner pick his targets.  UC was just into OSU territory when they came out in 5 wide.  I remember saying to the fans around me that the middle is wide open for a QB draw, something Minter liked to run out of the five wide.  Sure enough, UC ran it and Kenner took it the distance for a TD to put the Bearcats up 17-3.  At that point the temporary bleachers were shaking as UC fans were going nuts.  UC got the ball back late in the 2nd quarter and put themselves in field goal range.  They missed the FG which would have made it 20-3 (and likely would have gone to the half at that score).  Instead OSU got a short field, scored a TD and cut the lead to 17-10 at the half.  The Bearcats continued to move the ball in the second half, putting up over 500 yards of offense on the game, but didn’t finish any drives.  They lost 34-20.  That Bearcat team would go winless in CUSA losing 4 one possession games and 2 two possession games.  Their only other win was over Miami (OH). 
        Then there was 2002.  The only time Ohio State dared to come to Cincinnati and not coincidentally the closest UC came to beating the Buckeyes.  Probably the biggest thing that UC team had going for it was NFL players on the defensive line.  Antwan Peek in particular was in the backfield all game and was a disruptive force against the OSU offense.  That defense also featured a young Trent Cole.  Though UC broke a couple of runs, they knew they couldn’t sustain drives that way and often spread UC out allowing Geno to find holes.  Though only a sophomore, Geno threw 52 times that day and drove UC into position to win the game.  He threw two catchable balls in the endzone on the final drive that Olinger and Murray failed to bring in.  That was that.  UC missed its chance in Cincinnati, and the Buckeyes went on the win the national championship. 
        It’s notable that UC didn’t get the chance to play the Buckeyes while at its peak.  From 2007-2012 the Bearcats won 4 conference championships in a BCS conference (the Big East).  That conference often finished ahead of the Big 10 in sagarin’s conference strength measure.  It was a fluke of timing, but still quite disappointing that the best teams UC had to offer weren’t the ones that had the chance to challenge the Buckeyes. 
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        Where does the season go from here?  We knew last year was a gift.  UC was ahead of schedule in developing its defense and the benefitted from a light, manageable schedule.  This year the schedule was more daunting and while UC has a ton of experience back, there were big experience holes on offensive and defensive lines.  Additionally, injuries really hurt two of UC’s biggest strengths: 1. the defensive backfield’s potential to be dominant with Wiggins’ flexibility and skill; and 2. depth and versatility at running back.  Ohio State was a singular force that punished UC for those issues.  No team on the schedule will be able to do so to that degree, but UC still needs to find answers to how it will stop the stronger offenses on the schedule and how it will move the ball against competent defenses.  If they develop answers to those questions this can still be a great season that builds on last year…with a real chance to win the conference.  If not we’re likely looking at a good team that just wasn’t quite there yet.   It is essential that UC responds this week against Miami before going to a bye week that sets up the key stretch of the season.  

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