Monday, November 18, 2019

Lightning Round – The “lightweight” conference games.


I haven’t had time to write the last few weeks and the games were all “should win” type games, so I thought I’d just cover these similar stretches in the 2019 and 2009 season with brief thoughts on each game.  Both stretches of the schedule focused on conference matchups against the bottom of the conference where the Bearcats were heavy favorites.  Both featured some tests (this year more than in 2009) and in both stretches the Bearcats made it out unscathed for the stretch run.  This will also allow me to play with the schedule so that the game at Pitt coincides with a potential conference championship game in the AAC. So here we go, lightning round as to how the 2009 and 2019 Bearcats took care of business against the bottom of the conference and put themselves in position to win the conference and make a major bowl game.

2019 Tulsa at Cincinnati
                It was a beautiful day for Bearcat football one which I celebrated by bringing my 1.5 year old daughter down for her first tailgate.  The day started at the Zoo then we picked up some Adriaticos and tailgated behind Martinos.  My wife and daughter stayed for a bit than went home while I stayed for a great tailgate and a hard fought win.
                Though the Bearcats were in control for most the game, it never felt like they played close to their best.  This will be a theme in this stretch of football.  The Bearcats lead throughout, but it was a one score game for most of the second half.  Ultimately, the defense forced a critical turnover (they forced 5 on the day) and put the game away with a quick touchdown on the next play, moving the Bearcats to 6-1 on the season and 3-0 in the AAC.




2009 Louisville at Cincinnati
                Louisville had owned the rivalry for several years prior to 2008, when UC won at Louisville on their way to their first Big East Championship.  In 2009, the Bearcats had little trouble in dispatching the Cardinals at Nippert.  Zach Collaros made his first career start throwing for 263 yards (on 15 of 17 for 14.9 yards a clip) and running for 52 more.  Isaiah Pead only ran 6 times, but had 88 yards and 2 touchdowns.  By the end of the game both Chazz Anderson and Brendon Kay saw action as the Bearcats won 41 to 10. 

2019 Bearcats at ECU
                ECU had been a disaster all season and everyone expected this to be a complete blowout.  Though the ECU defense proved as inept as expected, the ECU offense found itself and a sure victory suddenly looked like a defeat.  Instead of making the trip to ECU, like I’d probably have done in 2009, I traveled to Washington DC to meet my new nephew and visit my sister.  ECU and Cincinnati traded scores in the first quarter (ending with UC up 21 to 14), then ECU ran off 17 straight in the second quarter to take a 31 to 21 lead into the locker room.  It’s easy to blame the defense when a team moves the ball and scores like ECU did that night, but it shouldn’t be lost that Ahlers and his receivers were unbelievable all night.  Ahlers delivered strike after strike on time and on target, often with pressure in his face.  The ECU receivers seemed to catch everything around them.  It was an unexpected performance from them.
                However, ECU struggled to stop the UC running game and by the time we reached the middle of the 4th quarter UC had cut the lead to 5.   ECU again drove into Cincinnati territory when for the second time this season Ahmad Gardner made an enormous, game swinging type play, jumping the Ahlers pass and taking it to the house.  You felt like the Bearcats had to have a defensive score to win the way ECU was playing and that is what happened.  ECU would tie it on a late field goal but Crosa would hit one of his own as time expired and the Bearcats completed a miraculous escape from East Carolina.



2009 Cincinnati at Syracuse
                The game was set to be played at noon on a Saturday, so after my friend got off work we hopped in his car and drove overnight to Syracuse.  We pulled into the hotel parking lot at about 5:00 a.m. and slept for a couple hours in the car before heading to Campus to tailgate.  It was a wet, chilly day.  The lot was a bit muddy, but we found some Bearcat fans, grilled some sausage and cheese sandwiches and had some fun.  Given the weather outside, the Carrier Dome wasn’t a bad place to watch a football game.  The Bearcats paced themselves scoring a TD every quarter.  Collaros threw for four TDs on the game and only 6 incomplete passes.  It was another game where the Bearcats never trailed and behind another solid defensive effort UC left with a firmly controlling 28-7 win.

2019 UConn at Cincinnati
                UConn is terrible.  I mean really terrible.  I mean, horribly, incredibly, historically terrible. 



2009 UConn at Cincinnati
                Talk about two entirely different UConn programs. About the only thing that UConn team and the 2019 UConn team had in common was Randy Edsall.  UConn wasn’t great by any means in 2009, but they weren’t bad either.  They won at Baylor.  They lost by 2 to number 19 UNC.  They won a double OT game at Notre Dame.  UConn came to Cincinnati having lost two close games in the conference.  Cincinnati would be their last loss of the season and the game would be one of the most memorable of 2009.  The game was in prime time on ABC and Zach Collaros had maybe the greatest game I’ve ever seen a Bearcat quarterback play. 
                Collaros threw for 480 yards and ran for 75 more, for 3 total tds.  The UC offense marched up and down the field all night.  However, this was the game where the Bearcat defense, which had been solid for most of the year, began to really fall apart.   The Bearcats ran out to a 30 to 10 lead, then after a UConn Td, extended the lead back out to 37 to 17.  UConn returned a punt for a TD, then after a UC field goal they had a quick TD drive to cut the lead to 8.  UC had a rare punt and UConn scored again with 5:03 left to cut it to 2.  They failed on the two point conversion. 
                UC got the ball back up 2 with 5 minutes left.  Collaros again marched UC right down the field completing 4 straight passes.  UC was stopped after 3 runs and had forth and 1 from the UConn 14.  Instead of kicking, Kelly left the offense on the field.  Pead beat everyone for a 14 yard touchdown to put the Bearcats up 9 with just under 2 minutes to play.  UConn would score another TD with 13 seconds left, but UC recovered the onside kick and escaped Nippert with the win. 


2019 Cincinnati at USF
                It was ugly.  God was it ugly, but UC escaped USF with another last second win on a Crosa field goal.  Based on SP+ factors UC had about a 20% chance of winning that game, going by how it was played.  However, the USF kicker seemed to want UC to pull it out.  The first half was an utter disaster salvaged by the defense not allowing TDs and USF missing field goals.  The second half UC ran the ball mostly well and doing just enough on offense to tie the game.  With the game tied late, USF again missed a field goal. UC picked up two huge third downs on the final drive before Crosa kicked another game winning field goal at the gun. 

Where we stand
                The Bearcats head to their final home game with a chance to clinch the American Conference East Division.  They’ll have to do so against a Temple team that has beaten the Bearcats four straight years, including a brutal loss last season where UC blew a second half lead.  What scares me right now is the staff does not seem to have any confidence in the passing game (and Ridder hasn’t really given them a reason to have confidence).  Last season UC lost the Temple game largely because Temple loaded up against the run in the second half and dared Ridder to beat them through the air.  The staff all but abandoned any semblance of trying to pass and UC couldn’t put it away on the ground.  UC nearly lost to USF in a similar way…abandoning any hope of moving the ball through the air.  They don’t need to be a great passing team, but they need to find a way to attack down field and loosen up really good Temple defense. 

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