I don’t have
much time for writing about my Bearcats these days, but with an historic
matchup just around the corner and minimal hearings this week I decided to take
some time and give my thoughts.
How The Bearcats Got Here
Before we dive into the game,
let’s take a little time to appreciate the journey. The program bottomed out in the late 80s
before Tim Murphy came to resurrect it.
Murphy redshirted an entire class, took a ton of losses and in his final
year (before leaving for Harvard) raised them to an 8-3 record. Then leaving the independent ranks for
Conference USA and finding Rick Minter, an average/above average coach not good
enough to leave, but good enough at identifying talented players and assistants
to compete, stabilized the program. A
ton of great players and coaches came through during the Minter/Murphy stretch. (I celebrated that era in THIS post) After that 8-3 season the Bearcats were
rarely too bad, but never particularly great.
It was a stable, solid program waiting for something big.
Something big would come in the
form of a Big East invite. The invite
made possible by an elite basketball program, a stabilized, solid football
program, and the foresight of Bob Goin and Joe Steger investing in the future
of UC athletics. UC moved on from
Minter, bringing in Dantonio who built a foundation that their next coach used
for thrust the Bearcats onto the national scene. Brian Kelly brought the fans to Nippert in
year 1, he brought the program to a BCS Bowl in year 2 (behind maybe the MOST IMPORTANT 3 game stretch in UC football history) and he ran the table in year 3
leaving the Bearcats one agonizing Big 12 second from playing for a National
Championship. (I wrote about the season
in depth in 2019 here are my 2 favorite pieces: Experiencing Bearcat Football... and One Impossible Season... )
What Kelly built, Butch Jones
mostly kept intact. There were more
slipups and a noticeable dropoff, but they still shared 2 more Big East
Championships. Then the Big East
collapsed, the AAC was born (a tweener conference that offered respite while UC
desperately looked for an exit), Butch left and the program collapsed under
Tuberville. But the collapse proved
temporary, as the program had not lost the luster from its rise. The right coach could bring it back, and Luke
Fickell was just that.
After a 4-8 debut season (that
could have been much worse) focused on building the culture and creating a
foundation, Fickell has done nothing but win.
The insertion of Freshman QB Des Ridder led to a surprise with at the
Rose Bowl to open 2018. A young Bearcat
team took advantage of a so-so schedule and an ability to win close games to
finish 11-2, capping it off with a win over VT in the Military Bowl. The following year the Bearcats again won 11
games, winning the AAC East, but lost back to back weeks at Memphis (the second
being the conference championship) to end the regular season. The foundation had been laid for something
bigger in 2020.
Amidst a crazy COVID season the
Bearcats were dominant. They went 9-0,
blasting nearly everyone in the AAC along the way. They rocketed into the top ten of the human
polls and several computer rankings and led nearly the entire way in the Peach
Bowl before losing on a 53 yard field goal against Georgia. That loss at the time was excruciating, but
in many ways it could be the most important loss in Bearcat history. After that loss, player after player seemed
to decide to come back one more time. The
COVID season had offered an opportunity for players to get an extra
season. Between those players and other
draft eligible players who would have been drafted coming back, UC was looking
at an incredibly talented and exceptionally experienced team returning for
2021. The expectations were enormous.
And they met those expectations
at every turn. They won by 14 at Indiana
despite a disastrous start fueled by penalties in their first game against a
hostile crowd since 2019, finishing the game on a 38-10 run. They built a 17 point lead at Notre Dame, one
that should have been bigger but for some chip shot field goal misses, and held
on to win by 11. They dominated the best
teams in the AAC beating UCF by 35, SMU by 34 and Houston by 15. The Bearcats had a 99 or 100% postgame win
expectancy in 11 of their 13 games according to SP+. Their 2 lowest postgame win expectancies were
87% at Indiana and 88% against Tulsa. In
short, they were dominant all season.
The Bearcats Belong
The naysayers might be loud, but
they aren’t that prevalent. The people that
matter, polls, computer rankings and oddsmakers all have concluded the Bearcats
are among the elite of college football this season. They were a preseason top 10 team. They were favored at Notre Dame. They’ve been in the top 4 of the human polls
the entire back half of the season. The
main computer rankings and the oddsmakers have them somewhere between the 5th
and 7th best team in the country.
In fact looking at a rough average of the computers and oddsmakers the
best teams in college football this season can be grouped like this:
Alabama/Georgia
GAP
Michigan/Ohio
State
GAP
Cincinnati/Notre
Dame
GAP
Oklahoma/Oklahoma
State/Texas A&M/Utah/Clemson
Oddsmakers see UC as the 5th
best team. SP+ has UC as the 5th
best team. Sagarin has UC as the 6th
best team (behind a Notre Dame team it beat at Notre Dame). FPI has UC as the 7th best team
(behind Notre Dame and Oklahoma). Seeing
as Ohio State lost 2 of its 3 biggest games, having Cincinnati in over OSU
despite those numbers is completely reasonable and in fact UC stacks up
favorably to many CFP teams in the past.
These are all predictive metrics which typically are not favorable to G5
teams and when you look at resume metrics, the Bearcats are a consensus top 4
team. UC has earned their spot.
Bama -13.5 is Vegas Showing this Bearcat
Team a Ton of Respect
You see a -13.5 line and
immediately may think, wow, Vegas thinks UC is going to get killed, but looking
at Bama’s history in these semi-final games and their strength in the
computers, keeping this line below 2 tds tells you Vegas believes in this
Bearcat team. Since the 2015 -2016
season Bama has won its semi-final matchups by 38 (38-0 over Michigan State),
17 (over Washington), 18 (over Clemson), 11 (over Oklahoma, where Oklahoma chipped
away at a huge early deficit) and 17 (over Notre Dame). Bama wins these games by multiple
scores.
Bama is clearly the favorite. Bama
is the better team. Bearcat fans mostly
know and accept this. There are only 3 other teams that would be
less than a 2 TD underdog against Bama on a neutral field (Georgia, Michigan
and Ohio State). Bama has the Heisman
trophy winning QB. They have maybe the
best defensive player in the country.
They are the deepest, most talented team in the country (the only other
argument on that front is Georgia, but the QB gap between those teams matters). This is a true David v. Goliath matchup
because Bama has separated itself from the rest of college football over the
years. But, this Bearcat team has
potential advantages that present a plausible path to victory.
How the Bearcats Win the Cotton Bowl
I’m not going to play the
prediction game. The more likely
scenario is a Bama win, but games are played on the field and I firmly believe
this Bearcat team can shock the world. I
touched on this earlier, but the Bearcats have an incredible blend of talent
and experience among its juniors, seniors and super seniors. Eight to Ten players from that group will
likely be drafted this spring, including multiple players projected as first
round draft picks. While the Bearcats
are at a depth of talent disadvantage, having that much talent and that much
experience cannot be overlooked.
Here’s my big contradictory
statement regarding this football game: I think Cincinnati matches up better with Bama
than they do against Michigan or Georgia, but I would have rather been matched
up with Michigan or Georgia. The reason
I didn’t “want” Bama is Bama has the best coach in college football history and
the Heisman trophy winning QB (QB is probably the “weakness” of Georgia and
Michigan). However, Bama’s offensive
strengths play into the Bearcats’ defensive strengths and while Bama may be
able to sustain drives running the ball they aren’t a particularly strong
running team. I think the Bearcats would
welcome Bama attempting to exploit UC’s run defense which is better than some
fans complained about, but definitely not the strength of the defense. The Bearcats will give up yards on the ground
if teams are patient about running it, but the defense tends to get enough
negative plays/stops to not give up points.
It will be interesting to see whether Saban sees UC’s run defense as a
potential weakness to attack and tries to win that way.
UC’s secondary is elite, but
Bama has elite wide receiver talent and a Heisman QB throwing to them. This will be a test unlike any other for Sauce
and Coby (and Cook/Hicks/Bush). The Bearcats have been great about preventing
big plays. If they can prevent big plays
from the Bama wide receivers they’ll have a great chance to hold Bama in the
20s, which is what they need to do to win.
I’m really interested to see if Saban has Williams on the Boundary
against Sauce most the time. I believe
Sauce would be up to the challenge. That
doesn’t mean he couldn’t be beat, but that he’ll make his share of plays.
The biggest key to the Bearcat secondary
holding up will be if they can continue to get pressure on the QB. The Bearcats have been pretty great at Havoc
rate most of the season. Early in the
season that wasn’t translating into sacks but often translated into turnovers
as QBs tried to make plays while getting hit (see Indiana and Notre Dame). Against Houston that translated into a barrage
of sacks. Bama is undoubtedly the most
talented offensive line UC has faced, but they haven’t been typical Bama on the
line. Multiple teams have been able to
get to Young by bringing pressure (Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn all did this
to varying degrees of success). If UC’s
defensive line can win some battles that should open up some seems for the
blitzing linebackers and defensive backs.
I think UC’s defensive line
depth might be an underrated positive in this game. UC only plays 3 defensive lineman at a time,
but the backups have come in and done their job all season. I could see someone like Briggs having a big
day. The other complicating factor is
when they disrupt Young they need to prevent him from escaping. His buying time is a recipe for the talented
Bama receivers finding daylight against UC and it is where a lot of their big
plays are made. UC needs to come out
aggressive, stay aggressive and show some wrinkles in their blitz schemes Bama
hasn’t seen on film (I’d like to see Coby/Bush play more press man, as there
won’t be a ton of that on film and I’d like to see some new, unique pressures). UC is talented enough to be disruptive and if
the front seven is disruptive the defensive backs are likely to hold up. Keeping Bama in the low 20s is going to be essential
to winning this game.
If the defense does those things
the question becomes, can the offense and special teams hold up their end? I have absolute confidence in Desmond Ridder
and his weapons to make plays if given time and confidence Ford can bust some
big runs if the line creates some space…everything really comes down to what
the offensive line can do. It’s unfair
to call the offensive line a weakness for the Bearcats. UC gave up very few sacks, ran the ball well
with multiple running backs and hit on many down the field plays that took time
to develop. They had 3 offensive lineman
that were first team all-conference. They
were a top flight AAC offensive line.
But offensive line is clearly the position group that is least proven to
be able to play at an elite level. A
less experienced version of this group struggled against Georgia in last year’s
Peach Bowl (particularly when their now departed NFL offensive tackle was
ejected), and at times struggled against Notre Dame (though opened some holes
in the second half and gave Ridder enough time most the game). Bama is a completely different animal. I suspect the tight ends will chip more than
normal before releasing, hoping to buy Ridder the time to make the reads he is
capable of making. I don’t think they’ll
be able to consistently hold up, but if they can enough this offense can make the
kind of chunk plays they need to score.
I’ve seen two big issues from the line all season:
1. They have struggled when teams sell out to
stop the run. This has been true even against
inferior teams who are bound and determined to take away UC’s bread and butter
running plays on early downs (inside zone and duo) and been true in short
yardage situations both near the goal line and on third/forth and short. So while UC’s YPC look great because they
have opened some big holes and their backs (especially Ford) are great at
breaking huge runs, their actual down to down success rate running is a
concern. I doubt Bama is going to sell
out on early down runs, so it will be interesting to see if the line can hold
up enough to open some holes and sustain a few drives with the run. I think they’ll need to pass to set up the run
and this staff has shown a willingness to play that way against the best teams
on its schedule.
2. On obvious passing downs this team has really
struggled to identify where the pressure is coming from. Blitzes and especially delayed blitzes have
wreaked havoc on this team. It’s why UC’s
third a long numbers are putrid. When
the Bearcats are in obvious passing downs they are susceptible to pressure. Teams don’t even have to send extra guys,
just get creative about how they send them and where they come from. Hopefully, this is an area that gets sorted
out on the break, but it’s one that is troubling.
The Bearcats need to avoid
obvious passing downs and third downs in general. Trying to get some quick hitting routes on
first down early in the game will be key.
Hopefully, that will open up run and play action for the big play. I think UC needs a bunch of chunk plays to
win this game (which is a strength of the offense), but to get those the
offensive line will have to hold up enough to get Ridder time. UC’s skill guys can win against the Bama
defense if given the chance.
The Bearcats need to score in the high twenties to have a realistic shot. To get there I think they need at least one huge
run from Ford (50+ for a TD/setting up a TD).
They need 5-8 chunk passing plays of 20+ yards and they need to avoid
turnovers. They are likely going to have
some negative plays on offense, but those can’t be turnovers. Additionally, a special teams play or 2 could
be key to taking some pressure off the offense.
This team has been great blocking kicks and mostly good in the
return/coverage game. As for field goal
kicking, they aren’t winning this game with field goals.
Final Thoughts
We’ve heard “biggest game in Bearcat football history” many times this
year. This really is it. And it’s probably a house money game. This is a game Bama wins convincingly all the
time. Nobody expects the Bearcats to win,
but they can because he Bearcats have some potentially favorable matchups such
as:
1. Bearcat defensive backs v. Bama Receivers
2. Bearcat pressure packages v. Bama offensive
line
3. Bearcat receivers/tight ends v. Bama
secondary
Those
matchups give the Bearcats a great chance to win the game if they can prevent
Young from extending plays, protect Ridder long enough to make a few plays of
their own and be clean in the turnover department. Yea, the most likely scenario is a Bama win,
but Cincinnati’s has a unique combination of talent and experience that makes
me dream and see a path toward the National Championship game in Indy two weeks
from tonight.
Go Bearcats!
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