Here's my bubble rankings... I included Creighton who actually is probably higher than some teams not on my bubble at this point, but I had already done most of their write-up before their Big East run. Everyone above this list I think will definitely be in the tournament. The list goes from most likely to make it to least likely to make it. Assuming Davidson wins the Atlantic 10, Michigan is my last team in the field.
Ranking the Bubble
Creighton- When I started this I wasn’t sure they would make
it, but the trip to the Big East tournament championship probably makes them a
lock at this point. They are 7-5 Q1 and
4-4 Q2. They swept UConn, beat Nova at
home and have a neutral court win over Providence. They were 3-0 against Marquette. Really their only issue is they were swept by
bubble Xavier, but they gap between those teams is so big at this point it
really doesn’t matter.
Davidson- You hope the committee rewards a team like
this. 24-5 overall. 5-4 vs. Q1/Q2. 13-5 q1 through Q3. They have had a neutral court win over
Alabama (who will make the tournament) and a road win over bubble VCU. They are 9-2 on the road. The A10 is a good conference. This resume should be enough.
TCU- Right behind Davidson in NET, but a completely
different kind of resume. They went 8-10
in the loaded Big 12 (every team is top 75).
5-7 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 13-11 Q1 through Q3.
A couple of those are elite wins, beating Kansas and Texas Tech. We also shouldn’t downplay the win at Hilton
against Iowa State. They’ve probably
done enough as well.
North Carolina- The Duke win likely put them over the
top. 5-7 Q1/Q2 record is iffy, but 16-0
Q2/Q3 is going to help. They played a
pretty strong schedule. They won at Duke
and at VT for their 2 Q1 wins. It’s not
an overly impressive resume, but there isn’t too much bad on it. Their win at Cameron should be enough to get
them in the field.
Wyoming- The weakest resume of the 4 potential Mountain West
bids, but honestly, it’s a tournament worthy resume. 4-4 Q1 is better than most the bubble and
they combine that with a 6-1 Q2 record. None
of their Q1 wins are tier 1 type wins (their best is probably home against
Colorado State and Boise State), but it’s a reasonably strong resume and the
kind the committee should and likely will reward.
San Francisco- Likely not in as good of shape as their 25
NET ranking would let you believe, but a team that should sneak in the field
nonetheless. 3-6 Q1 isn’t great. 6-2 Q2 is fine. Combined 14-8 against Q1-Q3 is going to be
better than much of the lesser bubble teams.
Of course they did a lot of their damage against 1 bubble team
(BYU). They do have a nice neutral court
win against Davidson and are 7-2 on the road.
Miami (Fl)- Remember not to overvalue the actual NET ranking
(Miami sits at 61). It’s the strength of
wins and losses that ultimately get a team in the field (even if the committee
doesn’t always evaluate that properly).
Miami is 4-3 in Q1 games which is going to look good compared to the
rest of the bubble. That 5-4 Q2 record
isn’t hurting them either. They won at
Duke, at bubble teams Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, as well as a neutral site
win over North Texas. They have home
wins over bubble teams UNC and Wake Forest.
They also beat Wake on the road which probably puts them above Wake in
the pecking order.
Virginia Tech- The trip the ACC Championship game just might
do the trick. They are only 2-5 Q1 and
6-5 Q2. But they are really strong in
the predictive metrics, so strong that I think it will and should make a
difference. 2 wins over bubble Notre
Dame and a recent neutral court win over UNC should help. Despite only going 11-9 in the ACC, I think
they have a better version of the Notre Dame resume (unbalanced schedules can
make for wonky conference results).
Rutgers – The lowest NET team that has a shot at the
tournament. They were abysmal in the
nonconference (and it was an abysmal nonconference schedule). However, they went 12-8 in a loaded big
ten. They were 6-6 against Q1 teams at
that included wins over Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin. Their road record is pretty bad (4-9) but
those wins are over Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and Maryland. I think they’ll find a spot at the end of the
bracket.
Texas A&M- Probably out before the SEC tournament, but I
suspect they played their way to the right side of the bubble. 4-9 Q1 but 5-0 Q2 for a respectable 9-9 Q1/Q2
record. They are 5-5 on the road and did
some damage in neutral site games getting Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC
tournament as well as a nice win over Notre Dame. The more I look at their resume, the more I
think they have done enough.
SMU- Their predictive metrics and resume metrics mostly look
like a tournament team. I think they
should be in. They are 2-2 Q1 and 4-4
Q2. That’s not a lot of Q1/Q2 wins and
the committee typically penalizes teams that get fat on Q3/Q4 teams. Their nonconference SOS of 273 won’t do them
any favors. They have 2 wins over
Memphis and a win over Houston. You’d
hope that would carry some weight. They
also have a win over Dayton who will be close to the bubble. I kind of think they’ll sneak in, but wouldn’t
be surprised if they didn’t.
Indiana- They weren’t a tournament team prior to the big ten
tournament, the question now is, did they do enough? They’re 4-8 Q1, 4-4 Q2. That’s a cut line style resume. Most of their Q1 losses are upper tier Q1
losses. They have a win over Purdue and
a neutral court win over Illinois. Their
neutral court win over Notre Dame could come in handy if they are among the
last couple teams considered.
Wake Forest- They have a really iffy resume. 1-4 against Q1, 4-3 Q2. Their best wins are road VT, and home against
UNC and Notre Dame. This is an end of
the bracket team or a team that just misses.
Michigan- Only 5-10 against Q1 and 3-3 against Q2. How much credit will the committee give to
playing a ton of Q1 games, when you lose a bunch of them. The home win over Purdue is great. So is the home win of San Diego State. They have a couple nice road scalps as well,
beating OSU and Indiana. They’ll
probably be right at the cutline.
Xavier- If you took
their resume and shook it up, spreading everything over the course of the season
evenly you may feel better about it (which is why they could still sneak
in). They are 5-8 Q1, 4-3 Q2 (so under
.500 Q1/Q2) and have a couple Q3. The sweep
of Creighton is nice and the neutral site win over Virginia Tech could carry
some weight against another bubble team.
They are a cutline type team that really depends on how committed the
committee is to the entire body of work.
If there is any eye test for the team they are now, they are going to be
left out.
Oklahoma- 18-15 is going to be tough to get past, but the
Big 12 is unbelievably deep and really tough at the top. Despite those losses they sit 39 NET. They just beat Baylor, who could be a 1 seed,
have a win over Texas Tech and beat Arkansas on a neutral floor. They are 4-12 against Q1 teams and 6-2 Q2. It’s a marginal resume and probably too many
losses but they could sneak in.
BYU- Another team at the end of the bracket, that I’m
skeptical did enough. They are
definitely behind San Francisco in the pecking order. The home St Marys win is great, but other
than that there isn’t quite enough there.
The loss to Pacific hurts. I’d be
fine if they got in above a Michigan type team that has more but also had a ton
more opportunities to get there, but I think they are more likely to be just
outside.
Notre Dame- I
honestly don’t see how you can put this team in the tournament. The Kentucky win is great and the win at
Miami is nice, but this team is 4-9 in Q1/Q2 games. They got fat against bad teams going 17-1 in
Q3/Q4. They also have 3 neutral court
losses to teams that will be near the cutline (Virginia Tech, Indiana, and
Texas A&M). You have to think that
carries some weight when the committee tries to evaluate the end of the
bracket. They went 15-5 in the ACC so maybe
the committee will value that, but when you did deep this team doesn’t have a
tournament resume.
Dayton- Their case really comes down to how much the
committee cares about bad losses. Dayton
has 3 really bad ones (3 losses to teams 248 and below in NET) and a loss to
NET 226 on the road. Those losses really
get in the way of a lot of good. Their
3-2 in Q1 games and those wins are Kansas (neutral), Virginia Tech (Home) and
VCU (road). They are 6-5 in Q2 games
including wins over tournament teams Miami (fl) and Davidson. Their Q1/Q2 record and wins is going to be
better than most the bubble, but those bad losses are a huge anchor on the resume. The committee mostly values your wins more
than your losses so I could see Dayton sneaking in, but bubble teams don’t
usually have bad losses to this level and ultimately I think it will keep them
out.
VCU- They have the
opposite problem of Dayton. They did
great against the bad teams but don’t have enough good wins. They are 3-3 against Q1 teams (fine) but only
3-5 against Q2 teams. Mid major teams
really need to be over .500 against Q1/Q2 to give themselves a chance. I think they are out.
UAB- They made their conference championship. They sit 49 NET (and right around there in
the predictive metrics). They are only
4-3 Q1/Q2 and racked up 12 Q4 wins. That
typically doesn’t cut it.
North Texas- Similar resume to UAB. They are 6-4 against Q1/Q2, so there is a
little more, but they have 11 Q4 wins.
Probably not enough.
