I feel like I was just writing one of these “don’t panic”
pieces about Wes Miller and the basketball program (because I was). I don’t write about sports very often
anymore, but Saturday was one of the most frustrating days as a Bearcat
football fan since 2017… so I have a lot to say. The Bearcats are now 2-4 in the Satterfield
era, two years removed from an improbable college football playoff run. It’s disappointing. It’s frustrating. But it shouldn’t be surprising given the
roster transition, coaching transition and conference transition.
Bearcat fans seem to have collective amnesia, completely unable to remember the struggles of
past transitions. In most cases, Year 1
is a terrible year for judging whether your coaching hire will be
successful. That is especially true when
you understand the complete talent drain Satterfield walked into at QB, wide
receiver, offensive line and in the secondary.
The offense was almost entirely a complete, one year, rebuild… with 10
new starters, most of which were not on the roster last season. And the results on the field have reflected
that situation.
There is nothing fans love to do more than blame coaches at
every sign of trouble. When things
aren’t working it’s always “the play calling” or the “lack of effort” or the
“lack of fire” from the staff. I don’t know
whether this staff will be successful long term (it’s too early)… just like I
didn’t know whether look Fickell would be successful after his 4-8 first
season, or Dantonio after his struggles the first two seasons, or hell, even
Tuberville, who managed 9-4 but was playing in the AAC with talent recruited
for the Big East… a huge advantage. What
I know, is overreacting in year 1 is really silly, and there are major talent
issues on this roster, which is playing the highest level of competition its
played since the Big East collapsed.
The story of this season has been a lack of difference
makers on offense combined with a middle of the AAC caliber offensive
line.
The dirty little secret of the Luke Fickell era was the
offensive line was never particularly good, 2020 was the loan exception, and
even then, it really only had one big time player. It didn’t matter because UC played in the
American and the offensive line was middle of the American caliber. It also didn’t matter because UC had an
absurd amount of talent everywhere else on offense. In 2021 UC had an NFL QB, 3 NFL wide
receivers, 2 NFL tight ends, and an NFL running back. It was more than enough to steamroll even
good teams, despite the offensive line issues.
Hell, even last year, UC had 2 NFL wide receivers and 2 NFL tight
Ends. Despite that, the offense finished
73rd in SP+ adjusted offensive efficiency. The downgrade at QB, and the loss of a
gamebreaker running back just made things significantly more difficult given
the offensive line issues.
When Coach Satterfield was hired none of that remained other
than a couple of pieces from a middle of the road AAC offensive line… that now
needed to compete in the Big 12. The
offense was cobbled together from the portal with a journeyman 6th
year QB, transfer wide receivers, and some transfer lineman who either played
at low level schools or didn’t start for their P5 programs. There are 10 new starters on that side of the
football.
The staff did an admirable job fielding a semi-competent offense
that ranks very similar to last year’s offense, despite last year’s offense
having 4 NFL skill guys (something this group is missing). I don’t like to rip on the guys that chose to
be here. They aren’t bad, there are just
no true difference makers among them, and that has made things really difficult
for one enormous reasons (and another smaller, but related one).
This team can’t seem
to make any chunk plays.
Everything is hard for this offense. To score, they need to sustain long drives,
with a middle of the AAC caliber offensive line. Until this past week, they managed to sustain
those drives but not finish enough with touchdowns. Going into last week UC led the nation in
first downs and were a top 15 team in yards per game. Despite some major talent liabilities they
were moving the ball.
If you are looking for positive signs from this coaching
staff in year 1 that is the biggest one.
Last year’s team had similar deficiencies at offensive line and qb. As a result, last year’s team was pretty
terrible at sustaining drives. However,
last year’s team made up for it because it had NFL players at wide receiver and
tight end that could turn a few of those 5 yard passes into 40 yard passes and
make big chunk plays. The fact that this
year’s offense ranks similar in SP+ despite significantly lesser weapons to me
indicates that if the talent can get back to where it needs to be, the offense
could be really good in the future.
Satterfield referenced it last week that the running backs
just aren’t the explosive guys that are going to get you those chunk plays. That’s perhaps even truer of the wide
receivers. It’s a tough combination that
requires the offense to be mistake free and nearly perfect in their execution
to score points…because they have to sustain long drives over many plays. I think the wide receivers and running backs
are solid players, but they aren’t difference makers that can stretch the field
and make the defense respect their ability to make big plays.
Basically, I think the staff has done a good job of scheming
yards with long drives, despite having a mid-tier AAC offensive line and no
playmakers. But without the big plays
one mistake and the drives stall without points (or with 3 instead of 7). That also gets into the other issue which is
redzone scoring. For me the redzone
scoring issues come down to two big things.
1.
The offensive line doesn’t move people so when
the field condenses and the schemed/manufactured yards go away, we don’t have
an answer.
2.
Our skill guys aren’t able to create separation
in tight spaces.
That combination has been the biggest issues I’ve seen all
season long. It’s been true in every
game except this past weekend against Iowa State when UC couldn’t move the ball
at all. So let’s talk about that
disaster.
Iowa State may have
just been a really bad matchup for UC (which was compounded by UC’S big
mistakes).
The great folks at Bearcatjournal alluded to this even before
the game and it played out how some of the fears from the pregame coverage
thought. Iowa State is a borderline
elite defense. The rank 12th
in SP+ adjusted defense, and their secondary in particular is excellent. When you are going against an elite (or near
elite) unit, sometimes talent is the only answer.
Bearcat fans should be familiar with this. Sonny Dykes is viewed around the sport as a
pretty elite game planner and offensive schemer. In 2021 and 2022 he had a couple very
prolific offenses that even featured some NFL talent at wide receiver. In 2021, the Bearcat defense held its starting
QB to 66 yards on 26 passes, and held SMU scoreless for 3 quarters. In 2020 the Bearcat defense held them to 13
points. To some degree I think this is
what UC ran into on Saturday. This was
the best defense UC will see all season.
The wide receivers couldn’t get separation and the offensive line couldn’t
block them. TheY dared UC to beat them
over the top, or make someone miss in space and UC never could.
Iowa State on offense is a big play dependent team that
struggles sustaining drives. Of course,
the Uc defense has struggled at preventing the Big play all season. In this case, a few of the big plays came on
special teams meltdowns that really hurt, but Iowa State still managed some big
down field passes. And perhaps most
frustrating when UC got the stops the needed, theY either committed a penalty
(a really weAk Roughing the Passer was a tough one) or allowed a successful Fake
fg, or had some other breakdown.
Saturday was bad. It
was bad in many aspects. But it also may
have been a particularly bad matchup for this team.
Transition Seasons
are hard.
That’s
what I titled this post initially, but it bears repeating. And this is not a normal transition
year. Uc is not only navigating a
coaching change, it is navigating massive roster turnover (particularly on
offense), and a significant increase in competition. Uc has transitioned coaches many times since
I’ve followed Uc football. let’s look at
those.
Minter went 2-8-1 the year
after UC went 8-3.
Dantonio went 7-5 with maybe the most talented
front seven UC has had on defense (Trent Cole, Andre Frasier, Mike Wright,
Tyjaun Hagler all with long NFL careers) and senior year Gino Guidugli. That
team lost to an Army team that was on basically a 3 year winless streak at the
time. And had the most embarrassing UC loss of my lifetime at Louisville (70-7). (But
the most relatable season to this one might actually be Dantonio year 2, which
I’ll explain soon)
Brian Kelly handled the transition best. I’d argue he easily had the best combination
of returning talent and roster stability (and he was our best coach…let’s not
kid ourselves). Dantonio’s last team
played a loaded schedule and held up well, despite being relatively young. Kelly jumped into a program ready to roll. However, even he lost back to back games to
Kragthorp and Weinstandt.
Butch Jones inherited a team that ran the table
the prior regular season that had a ton of talent back and managed to guide
them to a 4-8 campaign.
Tommy Tuberville had a 9-4 campaign, that in a vacuum looks
fine, but he also inherited a great situation from a roster standpoint. All those players were recruited to play in a
BCS conference and now got to play an AAC schedule. If you’re judging Tommy by year 1 you might
have been somewhat encouraged, but it’s another reason we can’t overreact to
year 1.
Luke Fickell went 4-8 and was very close to 1-11. That Miami win in particularly came at the
helping of one of the most epic, choke jobs I’ve ever seen.
Other than Brian Kelly’s first year, I remember many fans
being pissed at the coaching in every one of those seasons. Because that’s all many fans seem to know
when things go wrong… blame the coach.
My point isn’t that Satterfield will work out. My point is it is way too early to make any
kind of judgment in that regard. His
success will depend on his ability to bring in and develop talent (like every
coach that takes a job). It is just
impossible to have any idea of that in year 1.
The last time we
jumped from a middle of the road conference to a power conference year 1 was a
lot worse.
The season that keeps coming back into my head when I watch
this team is not actually Dantonio’s first year… it’s his second. Dantonio’s first year he had a really
talented senior class and a ton of roster stability and he had a decent enough
season (though a couple huge low points and he probably underachieved relative
to that talent). But year 2 had a lot of
similarities to this one in terms of the roster issues and the jump in
competition. That’s because UC lost nearly all its best players
that offseason at the same time UC made the jump to the Big East.
The Bearcats went 4-7 in their inaugural Big East
season. These were their losses:
At Penn State 42-24
At Miami (OH) 44-16 (Yikes!)
At Pitt 38-20
Louisville 46-22
West Virginia 38-0
At South Florida 31-16
At Rutgers 44-9
The Bearcats weren’t only losing to everyone in front of
them, they were getting destroyed. I don’t
think the roster was in as bad a shape this time around, so things have looked
better (even if the record is similar).
I think the front seven on defense has been Big 12 caliber from day 1. I think the transfer portal allowed Uc to at
least have back tier Big 12 type guys at the skill positions and even QB…but Uc
has no big 12 level difference makers on offense, has an AAC offensive line,
and a secondary that isn’t Big 12 ready.
Uc is struggling with those issues.
And Uc isn’t think only team. The four teams making the leap from the AAC
to the Big 12 have combined for one win over the Big 12 teams that were already
in the conference. That win was courtesy
of a Hail Mary for Houston at home against WVU.
All three of those teams are in the middle of extended periods of
coaching and roster stability. They aren’t
replacing their entire coaching staff and starting 10 new offensive players,
most of which were not on the roster last year.
These kind of jumps almost always come with growing pains (see TCU and
Utah back in the day). When they are
combined with huge roster issues and a brand new coaching staff… well use some
common sense.
The National Media, Vegas, and the Big 12 media all saw
these issues coming. UC was picked 13th
out of 14 in the Big 12. Their over/under
from vegas was 4.5 wins. This wasn’t an
accident. The roster issues were
evident. It’s not always coaching when
things don’t go your way. Ultimately,
the best coaches are going to struggle when there are major talent deficiencies.
What level of coach is Satterfield? I don’t know.
And I wasn’t going to know one way or the other this season. If they’d struck gold on their secondary and
offensive line transfers and this team was 4-2 instead of 2-4, I would have just
as little of a clue about what it meant for the long term future of the
program. Transition seasons almost
always tell us very little. Until
Satterfield has had time to recruit and develop players over multiple season,
we just won’t know.
But this season was bound to be hard. Fans can have collective amnesia and pretend
that their issues have to be coaching related, but I will remember past
transitions…understand that the circumstances of this one are probably the
hardest any Uc coach has had to deal with in year 1, and reserve judgment on
the future of the program until the coach is given time.
