First Look at the 2011 Bubble

Every year at this time I break down the resume's of every team in the country and try to evaluate where I believe the committee will put them. First though lets look at two teams who have earned their way off the bubble by getting automatic bids tonight.

Old Dominion- The runner up in the CAA cemented their bid by winning the CAA championship tonight. They were probably in already finishing second in a very solid Colonial Conference, and getting road wins at Xavier and Clemson, and a home win over George Mason. It is probably not the greatest resume in the world, but it likely would be enough to get them in. Doesn't matter now. They will be dancing.

Gonzaga- Gonzaga capped of a great run to finish the year with another West Coast Conference tournament championship. They had a really good win over Xavier as well as wins over bubble teams St Mary's and Marquette this year. They also had a very low RPI and losses to RPI 159 Santa Clara and 122 San Francisco, to go with losses to bubble teams Illinois and Memphis. They would have probably been among the last teams in or first teams out...now they have the automatic birth.

As of today my last team in is St Mary's. The thing that stands out to me the most is how much we do not need 68 tournament teams... wow some of those resumes are weak. Many of the teams battling for the last few spots have great opportunities this week to put some key wins on their resume (and hell chances to add a bad loss as well). To be honest outside of the first 3 teams I listed (Tennessee, Illinois and Marquette) I do not think anyone would have a huge gripe if they missed the tournament as of today. I do think Michigan and Washington have built fairly decent profiles for teams at the bottom. I also think Southern Cal had an unexpectedly good body of work. They were much higher than I had them going in.

As I mention every year the most important thing is demonstrating an ability to beat NCAA tournament teams. I use the RPI for evaluation not because it is the best system, but because that is what the committee uses. I take bad losses into consideration a bit, but it is not nearly as important as great wins. Scheduling as always matters and teams that schedule ambitiously are much more prone to get the benefit of the doubt. As resume's get shakier, however, I tend to favor mid majors who did well in their conference over middle of the pack teams from power conferences (again resume's being relatively equal). I do this because the teams from major conferences get more chances on the whole to demonstrate their ability against top competition. This is why for example I have St Mary's and VCU slightly above Alabama. Their resume's are all fairly marginal, but Alabama has had more chances to demonstrate what they can do (and will get more in their conference tournament).

Anyways here is my ranking of the bubble at this time. I have 26 teams competing for what will likely be 16-18 spots (depending on if there are upsets in a couple conference tournaments). St Mary's as my last team in today assume there are 18 spots.

Tennessee- They are going to the NCAA tournament. Thirteen losses and only going 8-8 in the SEC makes one skeptical, but their wins are just much stronger than any one else on the bubble they would be competing with. Tennessee boasts top 50 RPI wins over Missouri State, Villanova, Pitt (potential 1 seed), Memphis, Georgia and Vanderbilt (twice). Overall they are 7-6 against the RPI top 50. Despite some puzzling losses to Charlotte, College of Charleston and Arkansas their body of work should be good enough.

Illinois- The Illini got to 9-9 in the Big Ten and that should be enough to get them into the tournament. Wins over North Carolina and Gonzaga give them two nice non-conference scalps to go along with their wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan in the conference. Among the Big Ten bubble teams (and there are many) Illinois certainly has the most complete resume.

Marquette- Marquette played an ambitious schedule and did not close out any of those games in the non-conference portion losing to Duke, Wisconsin and Vanderbilt as well as to bubble team Gonzaga. Still Marquette has more quality wins than any other team on the bubble having beaten Notre Dame, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Uconn (the Uconn game taking place on the road). Marquette is probably in good shape despite their low RPI but a loss to Providence in the first round of the Big East tournament might not sit well with the committee. Get that win and I think Marquette will likely be in. If they get two wins they'll be a lock.

Michigan- Throwing out Illinois who I think should be in, of the Big Ten bubble teams I have Michigan first in the pecking order on the strength of their season sweeps of Michigan State and Penn State. They have a nice win over Harvard and a non-conference win over bubble team Clemson. A win over Illinois to start the Big Ten tournament would go a long way towards locking up a spot, because despite having 3 top 50 RPI wins and 3 other wins against bubble teams it is possible none of those wins will have come against teams that make the NCAA tournament.

Washington- This is a team who nearly everyone agrees is probably better than their tournament profile indicates. Washington has a sweep of UCLA and a win over Arizona to give them a 3-1 record against the top teams in the PAC Ten. If they can manage to get to the PAC Ten tournament finals I am betting it is very likely they will end up in the NCAA tournament. They are 3-4 against the RPI top 50, though one of their losses is to fellow bubble team Michigan State. They also have two puzzling losses...one to Stanford (RPI 139) and one to Oregon State (RPI 228).

Florida State- The consensus seems to be that Florida State is in and I am not quite sure why (other than someone has to fill those bottom spots). Florida State is 2-5 against the RPI top 50 (their wins are against Duke and Boston College). I guess the 11-5 ACC record is impressive until we consider that 5 of those wins came against the three worst teams in the conference (RPI 238 Wake Forest twice, RPI 160 Georgia Tech, and RPI 188 NC State twice). They split with bubble team Clemson, beat bubble team Boston College and lost to bubble team Virginia Tech. They also have just a dreadful loss to RPI 255 Auburn. They may be a tournament team, but wow are they an underwhelming one.

George Mason- They dominated the CAA this season including a win over RPI 24 Old Dominion and scored a top 35 RPI win by beating Harvard. That is really all there is to their resume. In all honesty George Mason has to hope that the committee puts some weight to winning the CAA regular season title by 2 games. That separation from Old Dominion will be nice as both seem to be on the bubble and if Old Dominion gets in it would be hard not to take George Mason as well.

USC- Given the weak state of the bubble I think a nice case can be made for USC. They have top 25 RPI wins over Texas and Arizona as well as two other top 50 wins against UCLA and Tennessee. That's a solid group of wins. They have a few bad losses to Oregon State (RPI 232), Rider (RPI 104) and Bradley (RPI 237) that are holding them down somewhat. A run to the finals of the PAC Ten tournament would put USC in great shape as that would include another win over Arizona.

Boston College- Wow is the ACC bubble weak. Boston College's NCAA hopes at this point seem to cling to their season sweep of fellow bubble team Virginia Tech and a top 50 win over Texas A&M early in the season. Boston College is in the RPI top 50, but I am not quite sure how as that win over Texas A&M is their only top 50 win. I'm interested to see how the committee handles the very weak profiles from the ACC teams.

Colorado- It is certainly possible Colorado has too many bad losses on their resume to warrant a bid, but they do have wins that exceed many of the other bubble teams. Colorado swept Kansas State and beat Texas. They managed a split with Missouri. They have a loss to another fellow bubble team in Georgia. Will one more win over Kansas State earn them a bid? It is possible.

Virginia Tech- After beating Duke the Hokies looked to be in pretty good shape... then they promptly did the Hokie thing and lost back to back games to bubble teams Boston College and Clemson. Now the Hokies have that great win over Duke, a nice win over bubble team Florida State, and an alright win over borderline bubble team Penn State. They also were swept by fellow ACC bubble team Boston College and lost in their only meeting with Clemson. Troubling losses to RPI 135 Virginia (twice) and RPI 162 Georgia Tech make the Hokie's resume look even more baffling. Yeah the win at home over Duke is nice, but other than that there is not much there that says this is an NCAA tournament team.

Richmond- I look at Richmond's resume and it reminds me a lot of Florida State and Virginia Tech. They have one really strong victory that makes them look like a tournament team, in their case Purdue, and then not much else. Richmond is only 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (their other win was against VCU) having lost their regular season chances against Xavier and Temple. If Richmond wants to lock up an at large bid they'll need to beat Temple in the A10 semis (beating Xavier and they'd win the Automatic).

Clemson- The marquee win for Clemson this year was an 18 point home win over Florida State (they lost to Florida State on the road). Clemson also victories over fellow ACC bubble teams Virginia Tech and Boston College. Clemson has 3 bad losses to South Carolina, NC State and Virginia. They also lost to fellow bubble team Michigan. They will need to beat Boston College in the ACC tournament to be in decent shape for a bid and would likely lock up a bid if they could upset conference champion North Carolina to reach the semis. I do think there is a really good chance that Clemson v Boston College could be an NCAA play in game.

Butler- The defending National Championship runners up have seemingly righted the ship in the Horizon league. Butler finished the season winning their last 8 games and making an at large bid a sudden possibility (though a long shot) if they somehow get upset in their conference tournament. Butler is 3-3 vs. the RPI top 50 with a season sweep of Cleveland State and a win over Florida State to their credit (RPI top 50 losses are Xavier, Louisville, and Duke). Their loss to Youngstown State and getting swept by Milwaukee really is holding them back.

Michigan State- The Spartans have 13 losses and have struggled much of the year, but they are right on the edge of the NCAA bubble. They have 4 RPI top 50 wins (Washington, Penn State, Illinois and Wisconsin) to go with 12 RPI top 50 losses. Among those losses are a sweep to fellow bubble team Michigan who they have to be behind in the pecking order at this point. The committee has often rewarded ambitious scheduling and 16 games against the RPI top 50 is a crazy amount, but Michigan State's resume hardly looks like that of a tournament team.

Georgia- The Bulldogs are 3-9 against the RPI top 50 earning wins over Tennessee, UAB and Kentucky. That does not scream NCAA tournament team. To their credit they really have not suffered a bad loss as 9 of their 10 losses are to RPI top 50 teams and their only other loss was to SEC west champion Alabama. If Georgia could pick up one or two more scalps in the SEC tournament their resume would begin to look pretty decent a quick loss and they could be on the outside looking in.

Utah State- Every year their domination of the Big west puts Utah State on the brink of the NCAA tournament, but their refusal to schedule ambitiously always makes them a potentially controversial at large. Utah State has had an RPI in the 20s for a while now, their best win this year, however is against RPI 48 St Mary's, their next best win is RPI 95 Long Beach State... that is it for top 100 RPI wins. They have a close loss to BYU, they got solidly beat by Georgetown and they have a bad loss to RPI 129 Nevada. Basically they've done almost nothing to suggest they are at large worthy over the course of the season and very little to suggest they are not. With 68 teams getting in maybe that will be enough...hopefully they'll just win their conference tournament and save us the headache.

St Mary's- They earned a share of the very good West Coast Conference regular season title and made the finals of the WCC tournament. On top of that they have a great win over St Johns and a solid win over NCAA tournament bubble Gonzaga. They also gave BYU all they could handle in Provo (for what that is worth). Their loss to Utah State on bracket buster Saturday is looming very large after their loss to Gonzaga in the WCC finals.

Virginia Commonwealth- Their bid for an automatic birth fell short and ten losses is probably too many for a CAA team, but VCU does have some nice meat to their resume. VCU has 3 top 50 RPI wins over UCLA, George Mason and Old Dominion, all of which could very well be in the tournament. Losses to Georgia State and Northeastern (220 and 174 in the RPI respectively) are probably going to go a long way towards keeping them out.

Alabama- Alabama might end up being the most debated team on this years bubble. One one hand they were the SEC West Champs by 3 whole games. On the other hand the SEC West is a train wreck. One one hand they have conference wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road) and fellow bubble team Georgia, on the other hand they really have not beaten ANYONE else. They have losses to Iowa (RPI 169), St Peters, Seton Hall, Providence (RPI 146), and Arkansas (RPI 120). They have an RPI lower than any team that has ever been chosen for the NCAA tournament. I think they'll definitely need to beat Georgia (assuming Georgia beats Auburn) and I think there is a chance they'll have to beat Kentucky in the SEC semis as well if Bama wants a bid.

Penn State- I'm feeling generous so I'll talk Penn State. They do have wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Illinois so that is the good. The bad is the losses. They have 13 of them. A few of them to the likes of Maine, Ole Miss and Maryland. They also lost return games to Michigan State and Illinois as well as games to bubble teams Michigan and Virginia Tech. Short of a run to the Big Ten championship I think Penn State is going to miss.

UAB- UAB sits at 29 in the RPI, but unless the committee values wins over Marshall and Southern Miss despite being the outright CUSA champions UAB will likely have to win the tournament title to earn a bid.

Cal- If we have USC maybe we should put Cal. Frankly I think Cal is a long shot, but possibly a run to the finals will do it for them. Cal has a nice non-conference win over Temple. Their two biggest wins in the PAC Ten are UCLA and @USC. They absolutely must beat Cal and then Arizona in the Pac Ten tournament and even then I think that might not be enough.

Harvard- If people are going to talk about UAB at all then we might as well go over Harvard's resume. They have a top 50 win over Boston College and two solid wins over Princeton and Colorado respectively. They are 1-3 against RPI top 50 and 2-1 against RPI 50-100. They will likely play Princeton in a one game playoff for a chance to go to the NCAA tournament, I doubt they will earn an at large with a loss.

Memphis- Will the committee care about a sweep of CUSA champ and RPI 29, UAB? Are wins over RPI 73 Miami(Fl), RPI 62 Gonzaga, RPI 53 Southern Miss and RPI 50 Marshall going to carry any weight. It looks to me like Memphis is sitting in pretty poor shape, especially with the couple of bad losses they had done the stretch against Rice (RPI 183) and East Carolina (RPI 110). I wish I did not even have to bring them up, but with 68 teams who knows.

Missouri State- The Missouri Valley conference has been a really good league in the past, but this year it is not strong enough to carry Missouri State to the tournament on the strength of their conference title alone. Missouri State did not do anything outside of the league to warrant a bid.

I'll have some bracket projections ready later this week as well as a breakdown of UC's resume and a few other resume's of teams at the top I found interesting. Until then keep on enjoying championship week.

March Madness Back in Cincinnati

Senior Day is always special. Fans get invested in the success of players that have represented their school sometimes for as long as 5 years. There is simply a different feel when you enter the arena on senior day. On Saturday, Bearcat fans were treated to a fantastic farewell to six seniors who have given much to the University of Cincinnati basketball program. The Bearcats capped off a 5-1 finish by absolutely blasting a very good Georgetown team.

This was the best senior night I have attended since Steve Logan went coast to coast to tie Memphis and then clinch a conference title in OT in 2002. This was the most electric the Shoe has felt since that day. Fans were loud, they were on their feet and they were invested. It took time to get there. It took having a team that has played incredible basketball down the stretch and had one hell of a season, but it is hard not to feel the program is well on its way back after a day like Saturday.

The game itself was a fabulous display of everything that has made this Bearcat team so good down the stretch. This Bearcat team can beat anyone in the country when they get top flight play from Wright and Gates. When they have won that has almost universally been the case. Wright played another very solid game at point guard. The Bearcats looked crisp in their offense getting very good looks throughout the night and getting stuff going towards the basket. I felt that early in conference play the Bearcats settled to often for shots that other teams wanted them to take. They launched quick semi-contested 3 pointers and did not get anything going towards the basket. They simply did not make defenses work.

Credit Cronin and the coaching staff, because this began to change drastically starting with the Pittsburgh game. From that point on I really feel this team's offensive discipline has gone up considerably. I know the Bearcats lost at Pitt and I know it was not exactly close most the game, but I remember watching the game and being very pleased with the way the Bearcats were working the ball and making an effort to score going towards the basket. Since that day it seems they are getting better and better in their execution. They do not settle for quick semi-contested jumpers. They work the ball and get the defense moving. This has led to better looks, it has led to opportunities for offensive rebounds and it has often lead to fouls on the other team.

To me the other major factor in this run of exceptional play has been the absolute force Yancy Gates has become, particularly on the defensive end. Gates absolutely changes the game inside and he has done it largely without fouling. He alters shot after shot and often comes up with very big, timely blocks. He has owned every big man he has been asked to guard in this great stretch run. On offense he has been solid. He has given UC an inside scoring threat, he has worked hard on the offensive glass to get put backs and to me even more to his credit he seems to always make the right decision when it comes to passing out of the low post. Gates gets doubled team often, but he has a feel for when to get rid of the ball and find the open man. This ability to throw it down low and either score or draw defenders and pass out has opened the offense up even more. I have been thrilled watching Gates' play down the stretch.

With Wright and Gates playing so well and giving the Bearcats the dominant players they need at two key positions the biggest strength the Bearcats possess has really been allowed to shine...their depth. What makes UC so difficult to play is they can play multiple styles and can come after you with so many different players. During this run there have been games where Thomas hardly plays at all and games where Thomas has been absolutely essential. We have seen moments of greatness from Dion Dixon and Sean Kilpatrick. Because they go so deep we get to see the Bearcats really extend the pressure on teams. One of my favorite things to watch is Wilks at the front of the press. It almost seems like he is freelancing at times just waiting for the perfect time to run over and give the double team. We have seen the Bearcats throw in some zone and seen them in their in your face man to man. We have seen them play big against Marquette or go smaller in the first Georgetown game. At this point in the year the Bearcat roster is so versatile and their ability to sub in and out allows them to play incredibly hard at all times and just wear people down. That has been an absolutely huge advantage.

In this sense the Bearcats could be a perfect team for Big East tournament play. They have the horses to really get after it and make teams work. Wednesday night whether it is Villanova or South Florida the Bearcats I strongly believe UC's depth could really wear them down particularly because they'll be playing for a second consecutive night. Villanova worried me a bit only because they have the type of in your face ball pressure that at times has given Wright problems and the Bearcats need Wright to play well to be at their best. That said I think the Bearcats are one of the teams that could go to NYC and win the Big East tournament. Hell, if they win a couple of games in NYC their seed line will really begin to move.

My firm belief is that the Bearcats are going to be a 6 seed at worst in the NCAA tournament. The Bearcats have a set of wins that puts them more in line with the 1,2, and 3 seeds than most of the 6 or 7 seeds. Also, 7 losses is not many especially when you consider that all of them are losses to top 35 RPI teams. The Bearcats are going to be penalized for their non-conference SOS and that is the only reason we are not talking about them as a 4 or 5 seed right now, BUT a couple more wins over these NCAA tournament teams and now the numbers will start to get gaudy. If the Bearcats can get two wins in the conference tournament I firmly believe they will be a 3 or a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. At that point they would have 7 RPI top 50 wins (6 would be top 25) and then a road win at NCAA bubble Marquette. You are not going to find 5 teams in the country that can say that. If the Bearcats make the finals I am willing to bet they'd be a 3 seed and if they could somehow win the entire thing in New York I do not think a 2 seed is out of the question. If the Bearcats make the finals of the Big East tournament there is a good chance they'd finish the year with more top 25 RPI wins than any team in the country. That combined with only 7 (or 8 if they lost in finals) losses would be incredibly hard for the committee to ignore.

So that is part of the fun we can have this week. I think they have earned a 6 seed or better already...the or better part is looking very exciting, because I think 2 seed is still in play (would take an obviously incredible run). I'll go over this in more detail later this week as I do my annual ranking of the tournament bubble and start putting out some bracket projections. Until then... Go Bearcats!

Bearcats Closing In On NCAA Tournament Bid

We have reached the time of year where it is time to talk NCAA tournament hopes. The Bearcats have put themselves in position to earn an NCAA bid. To do this they must take care of business down the stretch. A 2-2 finish would look awfully good for Cincinnati, especially in a Big East conference that has been particularly good this year compared to the rest of college basketball. I am not as confident that 1-3 will get it done, because of the committee's history of penalizing teams that have poor non-conference strength of schedules. Lets start off by looking at what UC has going for them..

3-6 vs. RPI top 25

Zero losses to anyone outside of RPI top 25

3-0 vs. RPI 50-100

Dominating home win over a Xavier team that is likely to get a good NCAA seed.

Road win over a St Johns team that looks better by the day

Home win over what will be a highly seeded Louisville team.

Looking at that resume Cincinnati has shown that 1. They can beat NCAA tournament caliber teams (very good tournament teams at that) and 2. They can take care of business in games they should win. 3. At 5-4 their road/neutral record is at the very least solid

Here is what will weigh on the Bearcats:

9 of their wins are against teams 214 and below in the RPI.

Non-conference SOS in the near 300

That non-conference SOS has been an anchor all season long. With a 1-3 finish I firmly believe it will take two Big East tournament wins to feel safe (I say two because the first game will be a game that losing would look very bad and the second would be one where the Bearcats could actually get a valuable win over a really good team). The shame of the whole thing is had UC scheduled more ambitiously there is a good chance they would be playing for a chance at a very good seed right now. Many bring up financial issues which is fair enough, but I think there is a cost/benefit thought process that does not get addressed. Had UC played mediocre teams instead of dreadfully bad teams they'd likely have about the same record, but would be well higher in the RPI. Is saving the expense on the front end (IE scheduling cheaper teams) worth the benefits you lose on the back end (better tournament position whether its from off the bubble to in or getting a better seed... the results of both are increased interest and exposure for the team that leads to more revenue). My own opinion is it is short sighted to make your schedule based on front end costs without factoring in the back end benefits.

In all honestly I think UC is one of the best 35 teams in the country. I think they are likely one of the best 25 teams in the country. I think their resume is undervalued nationally because of the number of dreadful teams they played to the point that the Bearcats do not get enough credit for the way they dominated Xavier, their big win at St Johns or taking care of Louisville at home. They do not get enough credit for not losing to any team outside of the RPI top 25. That said the Bearcats like every other team in the country know how the system works. They know what the committee values and they know that building up wins on the backs of bad teams is something that in the long run could be detrimental. If the Bearcats miss the tournament at this point it will be no ones fault but their own.

Many fans look at Xavier and wonder how anyone could put them ahead of Cincinnati. I myself believe that Cincinnati is a better team than Xavier and I think the evidence that is out their suggests it as well. The fact is though that Xavier has a better NCAA tournament resume when you look at the way the committee has traditionally evaluated tournament teams. Xavier has only played 4 games against teams seeded under 200 in the RPI while UC played 9. That factor alone is where the major difference in their resumes comes from. Both teams have the same record. Both have the same number of top 50 RPI wins. They even have about the same number of RPI top 100 wins (Xavier has 7, Cincinnati has 6). Now the Bearcats have beaten better teams (3 RPI top 25 vs. 0) and their losses came against better teams (All six to RPI top 25), and ultimately the difference between playing bad teams and really bad teams maybe should not matter as much as it does, but that is a reality that has always been known when the committee looks at NCAA candidates. It is up to the university to schedule accordingly and give themselves a chance to get the best possible evaluation from the committee. Xavier did a great job of that, Cincinnati did not.

In the end it might not matter that much. As it stands UC has some work to do, but they are coming off a week in which they played some of their best basketball of the season. Throwing out the eight minute stretch to end regulation against Providence the Bearcats looked like a really good basketball team. Offensively they worked the ball better than I have seen them most of the season and did not settle for the same forced threes they have when the offense has struggled (though Thomas still decided he needed to take his one three per game). They got contributions from guys across the board from Gates, to Kilpatrick, to Wright, and to Dixon. Their defense has been a great strength all year, but against Louisville it was absolutely suffocating. It was quite honestly one of the best defensive performances by any team this year. If the Bearcats continue this level of play I am confident they'll get at least 2 more wins and could conceivably make a run in the conference tournament. They could still not only make the tournament but end up with a decent seed.

It will always bug me that UC did not give themselves the opportunity to really put together the best possible body of work, because I definitely think this team is worthy of more than being the bubble team where people keep harping on their pathetic non-conference schedule. I think their non-conference scheduling is likely to cost UC two seed lines come selection Sunday. That hurts, it irks me, but the positive news is they still have every chance to play themselves into the tournament and I think it very likely that they will.

In my opinion last week was the Bearcats' best and most significant week of the year. It was definitely the most optimistic I have been after watching them. If they build on that and finish the way they are capable of we will all be watching meaningful basketball in March for the first time in the years. Now that is something all Bearcat fans can get behind.

PDoc Cannot Let Huggs v Zimph Go

The Cincinnati vs. West Virginia game is here again and once again Paul Daugherty has a message for all of you Bearcat fans who still love Bob Huggins and have stopped supporting the Bearcats because of the way he was dismissed from the program... build a bridge and get the fuck over it. Sadly Pdoc seems to not want to take his own advice.

You go to UC message boards and you do not see fans rehashing the Huggins dismissal. I talk to my Bearcat fan friends these days and none of the talk is on Nancy Zimpher (may she get what is coming to her some day) or the Huggins dismissal, but on topics related to the basketball team. They talk about how UC is playing, on whether UC can make the tournament, on the horrid non-conference strength of schedule, on the ridiculously strong Big East schedule, on avoiding a late season collapse, on the inconsistency of half court offense, the huge shot made by Yancy Gates against St Johns, the tremendous defensive effort night in and night out...the list goes on and on, but these are the topics among UC fans.

In the spirit of Pdoc's hypocrisy and in honor of the great writers who once graced firejoemorgan.com here are my thoughts on Daugherty's latest printed atrocity.

Doc: Why the Bob Huggins Nostalgia?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110128/COL03/399990172/Doc-Why-the-Huggins-nostalgia

By Paul Daugherty • pdaugherty@enquirer.com • January 28, 2011

Mick Cronin, bless him, did the proper fawning again. His knees must ache from all that genuflecting. UC wouldn’t be in the Big East without Bob Huggins, according to the Bearcats basketball coach. Football and academics played a big role, too, but OK. We get it Pdoc... Huggins was not the ONLY reason UC was asked to join the Big East. Bob Goin being incredibly proactive in seeking membership and pushing forward varsity village was also instrumental, but Mick is not saying anything we do not already know when crediting Huggins. UC did not have a special program in any other sports and though I think UC academics have long been undervalued nationally they were not bringing new credibility to the Big East with their academics. Yea they had to show the conference these areas were strengths, but the selling point for the Bearcat program was its top 15 basketball program.

Meantime, fans who wouldn’t walk across the yard to attend the Rutgers game Wednesday night (attendance: 6,400 or so) will sell out Fifth Third Arena Saturday (13,176), to watch the University of Huggs, even as the game is no more vital to the Bearcats’ tournament interests. Yes, Huggins coming back is and will always be a big deal to Bearcat fans. He earned that much with both his success and loyalty to the Bearcat program. Still Rutgers and a West Virginia team that was in the final four and won the Big East tournament last season is not an apples to apples comparison. Here is a quick list of reasons this game would be a much bigger sell (not even factoring in Huggins).

1. WVU was a final four team last year while Rutgers was sitting at home

2. WVU is a tournament team nearly every year. When was the last time Rutgers made the NCAA tournament? Anyone?

3. Rutgers game was 9 PM on a weeknight, WVU game is 8 PM on a Saturday

4. WVU is a top 20 team according to the RPI and either the 3^rd or 4^th best team that will come to the Shoe this year.

I would argue that getting another top 25 RPI win is far more vital to UC's tournament interests than beating Rutgers...so not only is Doc's inept comparison between the WVU game and the Rutgers game asinine to begin with his point of their relevance to UC's tournament interests is wrong.

Two years ago, UC feted Huggins in a brief pregame ceremony. One object was to honor a guy who meant a lot to a lot of people around here, in the basketball program and elsewhere. He richly deserved the recognition.

The bigger motive was to try, please God, to close a book. It was the retirement party that would allow everyone to move on. It didn’t work. At least not among the faithful. (Or faithless, depending on your side of the fence.) I do not necessarily buy that this was the bigger motive though I am sure giving Bearcat fans a deserved sense of closure with a coach who they invested so much in was a huge factor (and rightfully so). As to it not working... by what standard Doc? I was thankful I was able to give Huggs the standing ovation before the game he so richly deserved and yet at tipoff every Bearcat fan was cheering heartily for the University of Cincinnati. After the win UC was in prime position to get a tournament bid and I would argue if the complete collapse had not occurred down the stretch you may have seen attendance start to build sooner rather than later.

Huggins has moved on. He put West Virginia in the Final Four last year. Do you think he sits in his Morgantown mansion pining for Clifton? He’s somebody else’s hero now. Fair enough and Bearcat fans have not been pining for Huggins, what they have been pining for is NCAA tournament basketball.

He reminisces when asked. He harbors some bitterness for how the breakup was handled. He doesn’t carry a torch for his old job. If he did, he couldn’t do his new one.

Nancy Zimpher has moved on. Do you believe Zimpher – who made UC a better school, by the way – is concerned with what you think about her now? It’s possible she wrings her hands each night as she tucks herself in, grieving over the tickets not sold because of festering local anger. But I kind of doubt it.

Please find a new Cruella. My favorite part of the Doc bullshit article we get every year is the way he tries to bate Bearcat fans and make them feel guilty for hating Zimpher. Doc always sided with Zimpher in the Huggs/Zim saga and part of the reason I think he brings this up every year just to throw it into UC fans faces.

The Huggs-vs.-Zim show has closed, ladies and gentlemen. Have a safe ride home. Tip your bartenders and waitresses. Doc you're several years late on this. The Huggs v Zim show closed in 2005 and yet for some reason you find the need to rehash it every God damn year. Follow your own advice. Tip your bartenders and waitresses? Doc you've been beating this dead horse for 6 years now...nearly everyone is over it but you.

Why all this ongoing, destructive nostalgia? The only destructive nostalgia is the drivel you and the other talking heads try to sell us every year at this time.

You still don’t go to UC basketball games because of what happened six years ago? Really? This seems like as good a time as any to talk about attendance. Yes many long time UC fans dropped their tickets to UC basketball after the Huggins dismissal. They were upset with how the program was being run, they were upset that not only did the administration ditch a beloved coach, but that it gave the UC basketball program a self imposed death penalty.

The irony is this is the exact attitude that Daugherty wants Bengals fans to use. He asks them to protest with their pocket books and to not buy a failing product. Hell, he wrote as much in his January 15 column about being addicted to the Bengals. http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20110115/COL03/301150016/ To add to the irony the Bengals have made the playoffs twice in the five year span since Huggins was fired. The Bearcats have not been to the tournament.

Doc wants you to believe that attendance is bad because Bearcat fans cannot get over the Huggins firing. That is good for his narrative. It allows him to write the same bullcrap article every year in some form or another. The reason attendance is not back at UC is very simple.

1. UC has not been to the NCAA tournament in five years.

2. UC played an absolutely abysmal non-conference schedule with very few appealing games

3. The economy has been poor and fans are more selective with their dollars

4. Even with success it takes time to build back the fan base. Yes UC is 18-3 right now and ideally more fans would be attending games, but the fact is many UC fans have not been following the program as they did when UC was making the tournament every year. As a result they do not have the attachment to the players, staff and program that was there when it was successful. Huggins did not build the program overnight...the fans did not immediately sell out night after night (and he had the luxury of a brand new arena).

   The fact is that if the Bearcats continue to win, if they finish strong this season (which they have not done when in very good position the last two years) that will start really bringing the fans back. When the program gets back to winning consistently the fans will come.

   You’re going Saturday, because of the. . . visiting coach? No doubt Huggins is part of the draw, but we are also going to see a top 20 RPI team who made the final four last year. We are going to hopefully see a good game and see the Bearcats get another quality win.
   
   How self defeating. How utterly useless, in a very Cincinnati way. Yes how awful that the Bearcats sell out what ultimately is a huge game in the Big East.
   
   We live in our rearview mirrors here, sometimes. We glorify our past. Things are never as good as they were in 1975. P-e-e-e-te!! Way to get a nonsense Pete Rose reference in the article which in this context is a terrible analogy. I guess the point you are trying to make is that both Rose and Huggins are flawed heroes. Isn't everyone?

The Way We’ve Always Done It rules the day. If you don’t like it here – and why on earth wouldn’t you? -- there’s the door. I’ve lived here 22 years and I’ve never understood our thinking. I only understand how it has affected our community. We’re not better for all the past-clinging. It keeps us from being as good as we can be. WTF is he talking about? “If you don't like it here there is the door.” Who are we showing the door? Are you going all the way back to the NZ references? Respecting the past and being loyal to those who were loyal to you and busted their ass for your school is not clinging to the past. It is being a fan. No one would ever confuse you with a Bearcat fan so maybe it is impossible for you to understand.

How can we move on when we’re always looking back? Some of us can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Do you cruise the highway staring at your rearview mirror? No, but I damn sure do use my rearview mirror...nevermind...why am I getting sucked into nonsensical analogy after nonsensical analogy?

Part of the reason Fifth Third Arena’s upper bowl looks like the mouth on a Halloween pumpkin is because the basketball team hasn’t won enough. Understood. Ok, because the first half of your article makes it seem like you do not understand. Glad to see you are not completely ignorant. This is the essence of why UC attendance has suffered. Glad to see Doc is finally ready to tackle the real issue. Part of it is because we choose to live in the rearview mirror. That’s not fair. Worse, it’s corrosive. Wait that's it? That's all the time we get on the issue that actually drives attendance for nearly every program across the country. One minor acknowledge and immediately Doc gets back to focusing on the minor issue of people liking Huggs. I'm sure there is a tiny percentage where Doc's point may be true, but if the team wins consistently, if Cronin turns UC into the perennial top 15 program they were under Huggins...this minority will be impossibly hard to find.

This is no shot at Huggins. He deserves the respect we’ve afforded him. But enough is enough. It isn’t 1975, or 1992. Johnny Bench is 61 years old, Nick Van Exel is retired from the NBA. Huggins isn’t coming back. Somehow, the Final Four has survived UC’s 19-year absence. No one is arguing this point Doc. Yes the date is January 28, 2010 (at least at the time I am writing this).

“It is Huggins who’s selling (Saturday’s) game out,’’ says UC archivist Kevin Grace. Grace is a student of city history, sports and otherwise. He doesn’t agree that we spend excessive time looking behind, but acknowledges it’s a reason for Huggins’ ongoing hold on the local affections. “He doesn’t have a good team, but he does have a larger than life personality. People are going because Huggins is Huggins.’’ I'm glad we got Grace's basketball insight to tell us WVU is not a good team (top 20 RPI mind you, but not a good team), but what Doc neatly glosses over here is the fact that the history “expert” Doc brings in to lend credence to his article about Cincinnati spending an excessive amount of time looking backwards DISAGREES with Doc's assertion that Cincinnati spends an excessive amount of time looking backwards. Way to lend credence to your position Doc.

Grace believes that a return to the NCAA tournament is all UC needs for its fans to cease romanticizing the past. “Let’s face it, the Big East is professional sports,’’ Grace says. “Pro sports fans want a winner.’’ Nail on the head...winning is how we get the fans back to the Shoe (and you know a better economy would help as well).

I’d suggest Cronin and his group of quasi-amateurs could win it all, and there would still be a large local voice mumbling about the way Zimpher dealt with Huggins. That local voice mumbling would be none other than Paul Daugherty. It’s how we are around here. You are a walking, hypocritical testament to that.

We’re the same people who, on the day Great American Ball Park opened, booed Carl Lindner and cheered Marge Schott. We still slide headfirst in support of Pete Rose. And we still love Huggs, which would be OK if it didn’t come at the expense of the progress happening now in the home offices of Fifth Third Arena. Well good... it is OK because loving Huggs does not affect the progress down at Fifth Third Arena. It does not in the least.

“It doesn’t reflect the community at large,’’ Kevin Grace insists. I wonder how many people Doc tried to find that would agree with his take before he finally settled on someone who seemed to believe the complete opposite. Great reporting as always Doc.

Man, I hope not. Somehow I do not quite buy this... I really cannot wait to read Huggs/zimph part 6 from you this time next year.

Xavier At the Shoe

In honor of tonight's shootout, a little Casey at the Bat style tribute.

The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Xavier five that day

The Bearcats stood 14-0, a better team than they

And then when Lyons nervously cried and Freese did the same

The team just stared in the lockerroom, frightened, as they waited for the game

They left the lockerroom as one, determined to give their best

As they marched onward to the court to begin their impossible test

Yet somehow they won the tipoff and jumped out to lead

At least for a little moment they could fight off the urge to conceed

But then the mighty Gates did force his way into the lane

and stuffed through a shattering dunk right over top of McClain

Then Rashad Bishop stroked a three and Davis then drained two

The Bearcats were now in business; there was nothin X could do

Then from 13,000 throats and more there rose a lusty yell

It shot throughout the rafters and the noise began to swell

It echoed at the Xavier bench and their players did go lame

For the Bearcats, the mighty Bearcats were taking control of the game

There was an ease in the Bearcats rhythm as they completely owned the court

Such pride in their performance as they dominated this sport

And when responding to the cheers they upped their game some more

Before you knew it another run, this one sixteen to four

Then the thug Tu Hallow threw a punch and earned himself a T

And in that classless moment the Cats stood tall, just letting it be

And when that final whistle blew the Bearcats won the day

15 and 0, now on they go...to dominate Big East play

Oh somewhere in this favored city the stars are shining bright

UC's band is playing somewhere, UC's fans hearts are light

The UC players now are laughing, and the muskies just lay and pout

Because there is no joy in Norwood... little Xavier just got BLOWN OUT.

Ranking My Fiction Reads- 2010

In 2010 I started and finished 20 fiction Novels totaling approximately 11,000 pages. I started a 21st called The Terror by Dan Simmons, which I am currently reading and therefore won't include it on this years list. I divided my rankings into 4 tiers ranging from excellent to alright (thankfully only one book fit into the alright tier). By in large this list is in order of how I would rank the books, however, I often go back and forth on which books within each tier I liked more. Anyways here is how I would rank the fiction I read this year.

Tier 1 (Excellent)
1.Perdido Street Station - Easily the most original and well written book I read this year. The Slake Moths are absolutely terrifying and the introductory ride into New Crobuzon is breathtaking. China Mieville has a way with words like few authors do. He creates incredibly quirky and interesting species and some ridiculously cool ideas (The Weaver was amazing). The first couple parts are slow, but always fascinating and well written. The rest of the book is just awesome.

2.Snow Crash - Though a bit dated, Snow Crash is about as fun as a novel can get. From the opening description of the "Deliverator," to the pure awesomeness that is Y.T. this novel remains fun throughout. There is a rather large info dump in the middle which at times can get a bit tedious, but despite that Neal Stephenson delivers with a novel that is just pure entertainment.

3.The Lies of Locke Lamora- Scott Lynch's first in the Republic of Thieves series is both an original take on fantasy and a fun caper tale. The city of Camorr and the underworld that thrives there really comes alive and for a series novel it has a very satisfactory, self contained ending.

4.The Name of the Rose- A big credit to Eco with this book for as long as the book was and as many names and languages as it had I thought it was actually a fairly quick read. The language is top notch throughout, the descriptions are great, the tension is ever present and the history woven in is virtually unmatched in anything I have read.

5.A Fire Upon The Deep- The scope of this novel is nothing short of grand. Vinge takes many intriguing ideas, creates multiple fascinating alien races and gives us a tale that is epic in scope and fascinating to read. There are several amazing actions sequences that will keep you rivited throughout.

6.A Deepness in the Sky- Deepness does not quite have the epic scope of A Fire Upon the Deep, but it's a fascinating tale of the conflict among two groups of human space travelers centered around their varying desires of how to extract resources from the first known alien race. The idea of mindrot is very cool as is the moral dilemma it ends up causing for our protagonist. The alien race to me was very believable and though I found myself more interested in the human plot I thought the way they blended together worked well.

Tier 2 (Great reads, not quite up to level of Tier 1)
7.A Look to Windward- Banks is one of my favorite current writers, largely because of the brilliant action sequences he write, but with this story he takes a step back from much of the action (though we get a few cool scenes) to tell a tale of revenge. Slower paced than earlier Banks Culture novels, but just as thought provoking.

8.The Scar- The Scar was actually a better paced book than Perdido Street Station and had many of the great features that made Perdido so special (Many quirky species, incredibly cool creations and ideas, great visual depictions and beautifully written passages). Where I think it fell short was the tension never seemed as real and there was no entity to match The Weaver.

9.Old Man's War- Military Scifi to the core. This book flowed really well. It was a quick read, but entertaining throughout. The action scenes were intense and there was a surprising amount of humor from Scalza as well.

10.Red Seas Under Red Skies- The second in Lynch's Republic of Thieves series I did not find this quite as good. I liked the action in Camorr better than the action in this book. Still the heist scenes are very cool and the action on the high seas can be fun as well. Really anxious to see where he goes moving forward.

11.To Green Angel Tower Part 1- The first of the two part finally to Tad Williams' Memory, Sorrow, and Thorn series I thought this was actually slightly better than the conclusion. Williams finally got to a point where all his plots were intriguing and moving at a good pace.

12.To Green Angel Tower Part 2- The conclusion to Memory, Sorrow and Thorn and a very satisfactory end at that. I thought some of the travel scenes dragged a bit (as they tend to in fantasy), but I thought the end was very cool. The time Williams took to develop the characters and the world early in the series which often seamed excessive really worked to his benefit in the conclusion.

13.Against a Dark Background- This story is just a series of amazing action sequences which no one write better than Banks. I found Sharrow to be a fun protagonist and much of her back story helped develop the emotional gravity of the book. Still I though the scope really was not big enough for me to be as invested in the book. Definitely a fun read, just not an excellent read.

14.The Hunger Games- Credit Collins for being able to get me emotionally invested in characters I barely knew very early on in her novel. Though often predictable and convenient in it's solutions to problems that seem coming I thought The Hunger Games was paced incredibly well and fun throughout. I also felt that even the predictable and convenient parts of the story worked in the world Collins created. I'm anxious to read the last two novels in the series.

15.Cat's Cradle- Vonnegut always seems to deliver with his funny, dark wit. I really loved the idea of Bokononism and how the narrator (John/Jonah) tied everything that happened throughout the book to the various teachings of Bokononism. I thought it was very telling that the destruction that comes in this book did not come from evil or maliciousness, but from wreckless indifference and wreckless self action. Not as good as the Slaughterhouse Five, but typical Vonnegut in that it was humorous and dark with themes that strike you in a very real way.

Tier 4 (Good reads)
16.Storm Front- This first in Butcher's Dresden series was a very quick read and interesting blend of detective novel and urban fantasy. It was self contained and everything tied together nicely at the end. The novel was nothing special but showed the makings of a potentially fun series.

17.The Dragonbone Chair- The first of Williams' Memory, Sorrow and Thorn series. I thought the biggest fault with this book is the setup took to long and we were 250 pages in before anything happened. The travel scenes were also hit or miss. To its credit though the White Fox's were really cool and the end was wonderfully written. A good, though flawed book.

18.And Another Thing- Colfer does an admiral job of continuing The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy series. And Another Thing certainly has a different feel than the other Hitchhikers books, but it was still a fun read. In fact I'd argue it was as good as book 5 and much better than book 4 (which just didn't do it for me). Still it falls well short of the brilliance that defined the original three Hitchhikers novels.

19.The Stone of Farewell- Book 2 of Memory, Sorrow and Thorn. This flowed better than book 1, but I thought was the weakest overall of the four. To me not enough happened...there were not enough really cool scenes that we got at the end of the first novel and throughout To Green Angel Tower. That said there was some cool stuff in the Sithi city and the duel on the plains with the Thrithlings was worthwhile. Another good book that is ultimately flawed.

Tier 4 (Eh... book)
20.Good Omens- Really this book was my only disappointment in reading this year. Having loved American Gods I expected much more from this story. I did not find it particularly funny, or the conclusion particularly satisfactory. There are some alright moments, but for a book that is trying to be humorous at the expense of other aspects I just do not think it worked. Really it is the only book I read this year that I would not recommend to others.

Lack of Job Growth Kills Democrats

It is easy to forget what an economic mess the democrats walked into just two years ago. If nothing else Tuesday night was a reminder that even with near disasterous collapse brought on before the Democrats took charge Americans have no patience when their jobs are in jeopardy. In October of 2007 the Dow Jones was at 13930.01. From there it essentially fell at a consistently steep rate until February of 2009 (when it reached 7062.93). This is significant because this is when the democrats implemented their economic policy. Since that day the Dow Jones has steady risen to 11188.72. Our financial institutions were saved and they have paid back every penny borrowed in the Obama bailout (only money they did not return was from the Bush bailout since he did not require them to pay it back). GM was saved and has also paid back the money they were given in the bailout.

In February of 2008 the unemployment rate in this country was 4.8 %, before Obama even took office the unemployment rate had moved up to 8 percent. So in less than a year the unemployment rate had gone up 3.2%. The unemployment rate reached nearly 9% before Obama and the democrats passed their economic policy. The democrats economic policy slowed down the growth in unemployment SIGNIFICANTLY. And after bottoming out at 10.1 in October of 2009 the rate has slowly started to move back down towards 9.6%.

The ironic thing is that had the republican economic policies that caused this MASSIVE recession not been so disastrous the democrats probably would have done better in this election. As it is, though we have seen massive improvements in the trends for both the dow jones and unemployment from what the Democrats inherited, though Americans still are dealing with consequences of those inherited policies. It was always going to take more than two years for the economy to recover from the incredible plummet we saw (which did not slow down until Obama's economic policy was implemented).

Americans vote with their pocket books so often and since there has not been a strong recovery in jobs to match the strong recovery in the market they are not happy. Though the majority of the deficit has actually come from lessened tax revenue due to recession, Americans see the Democrats spending money on something like Health Care when so many are still unemployed at it rubs them the wrong way. Tonight was inevitable for the democrats and though I think if they were as good at talking points as republicans they could have done better the fact was there was no way the democrats could have taken an economy that had been plummeting in the year before they implemented their policies and created a complete recovery.

It's funny to listen to the Obama administration be called Partisan. From day one Obama came in and tried to work with republicans. Even gave them certain things they wanted with the stimulus and bailout packages...republican leadership originally was willing to work with him on some of it and John Boehner made the calculated political move to obstruct on everything and ordered republican leadership to follow suit. It worked in this election because though the dow jones has recovered incredibly well from the year and a half plummet it was on prior to the democrats taking action, jobs have not comeback yet and Americans vote with their wallets.

Anyone remember John Boehner crying on the house floor trying to get support for Bush's tarp bailout (which was poorly structured and didn't require anything to be paid back)? Well when the banks still looked on the verge of collapse and Obama tried to get republican support for tarp (this time structured in a way that required it to be paid back) Boehner chose obstruction. In the end the Banks recovered after tarp was passed and repaid the money to the federal government. It was good legislation. It probably saved the financial institutions of this country. And the republicans decided to play politics with it.

That playing politics paid off for the last year because it was going to take more than 2 years to recover from the disasterous economic plummet that came prior to the Obama administration taking over, but now they'll actually have to offer something. They'll actually have to be more than just obstructionist. In the end that's probably a blessing for the democrats (though loosing that many seats was not the ideal way for it to happen).

Listening to republicans talk jobs is almost comical. In the year before Obama implemented his economic policy unemployment rose for 4.8 % to 9%. Unemployment rose under Obama to just over 10 percent and right now unemployment sits at 9.6%...clearly Obama has slowed down the rate of unemployment decline and we have scene a slow trend towards rising employment. The republicans railed against the bailout of General Motors, but how many more jobs would have been lost had this company collapsed? Instead the democrats designed a plan that allowed General Motors to continue to function and they have already paid back the government for the bailout money. They saved American jobs and republicans were against saving those jobs.

In the end jobs lagged too far behind the overall economic recovery and the democrats suffered this year at the ballot. It is going to take a strong recovery of jobs to go along with the dow jones for the Democrats to hold serve next time around. They still have the Presidency, they still have the Senate. Health Care will not be repealed. Democrats will still set the agenda and they still have two years to show that their economic policies saved this country from a decline that could have been way worse. And this time they will have a republican party that will have to do far more than obstruct. When you have no power you can play the obstructionist. You can act like your plans are not getting out of committee, you can pretend the other side is not trying to work with you...now the republicans actually have to bring something to the table. In the end I think we'll see job recovery and I think Obama will be able to make the economic argument in two years that their policies lead to significant recovery. I think he'll hold the presidency and hold the senate. They may not be able to take back the house so quickly, but having an opposition party that has to actually try to govern too may not be such a bad thing.