Bearcats Should Still Have NCAA Tournament Aspirations

The Power of Positive Thinking

There are eleven games left in the basketball season and the Bearcats have officially matched their win total from last season. At this point it is really hard to project how the rest of the season will go so I am not going to even try. Last season the Bearcats got their 13^th win on February 20 and then went on to lose 7 more times without picking up a win. This team is considerably better than that one so I expect the season to go better this time around. Instead of projecting I want to look at what the Bearcats need to do to make the NCAA Tournament.

Many of you may be thinking that the NCAA tournament is out of reach this season, but we are the University of Cincinnati and the NCAA tournament is exactly where our eyes should be fixed. I think there are a lot of misnomers about what the selection committee looks for in terms of NCAA tournament teams so let’s get out the myths right away.

1. The Selection Committee does not factor in conference affiliation. Playing in a better conference helps insofar as you have opportunities for more quality wins and play a better strength of schedule, but the committee does not count the number of teams in each conference when they are selecting the teams.

2. RPI is purely a grouping mechanism. It is used to get a feel for home many quality wins a team has. In the end it is supposed to come down to the most deserving teams based on their body of work you will see teams with lower RPIs ahead of teams with higher RPIs all the time.

3. The other polls do not matter one bit. The committee does not look at them at all. They discuss the teams, who they have beat and what they thought when they saw them play. In fact when you start looking at seeding you notice how little it really reflects the polls (though the polls generally get the top seeds close to right).

With all that said it is time to take a evaluate the Bearcats to date in much the same way the committee will do come March. As of right now the Bearcats sit at 59 in the RPI . This is not important in and of itself, what is important is who they beat and who they lost to. Five of Cincinnati’s seven losses are to teams in the RPI top 25. Those losses are not really hurting the Bearcats. The Bearcats other two losses are to Providence a team ranked 65 in today’s RPI. These are the losses I worry about come Selection Sunday. Providence beating Cincinnati twice would clearly get the nod if both were sitting on the bubble (though there is always the possibility both could get in).

The Bearcats have 3 solid wins to their credit. UNLV and UAB are both currently sitting in the top 50 RPI (43 and 45 respectively). The UNLV win could loom particularly large for the Bearcats because it will be a road win against a team that likely is going to finish on the good side of the bubble. Mississippi State has a lower RPI but if they could somehow win the SEC west that could help the Bearcats. Both UAB and Mississippi State are likely to be sitting on the wrong side of the bubble come selection Sunday (admittedly there is a lot of basketball to be played).

So the basic numbers you need to know about the Bearcats right now are:

They are 0-5 against the RPI top 25

2-0 against RPI 26-50

1-2 against RPI 50-100 (both losses to Providence)

2-0 against 101-150

And 7-0 against sub 150 RPI teams (This is another issue that hurts the Bearcats. The committee does not look positively when more than half of your nonconference wins are against teams with sub 150 RPIs. It should also be noted that the Bearcats only have 12 victories according to how the committee will evaluate because one of their wins was against a team not factored in the RPIs. )

All in all the Bearcats are not in bad shape right now, but they are going to have to play significantly better basketball to make the Big Dance. I still think losing to Providence twice could loom large, but looking at the rest of the schedule the Bearcats have plenty of opportunities to play their way into the dance. I have bolded some games that are as close to must win games as you can have (they are St John’s @South Florida, and Seton Hall). For the Bearcats to be an NCAA team they almost certainly have to win those games. I think 4-4 in the other 8 games will get the Bearcats into the NCAA tournament. That would put the Bearcats 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the Big East. I think at 3-5 in those 8 games the Bearcats would be left with some work to do in the Big East tournament, but could play their way in with a run to the semi-finals (which would likely include winning 3 games).

January 28 No. 23 Georgetown7:30 PM ET

February 1 at No. 21 Villanova12:00 PM ET

February 4 No. 22 Notre Dame7:30 PM ET

February 7 at No. 23 Georgetown12:00 PM ET

February 11 St. John's7:30 PM ET

February 14 at No. 3 Pittsburgh4:00 PM ET

February 21 No. 7 Louisville2:00 PM ET

February 26 West Virginia7:00 PM ET

March 1 at No. 15 Syracuse2:00 PM ET

March 3 at South Florida7:00 PM ET

March 7 Seton Hall12:00 PM ET

The question then becomes: Where do those wins comes from? The two key four game stretches are Georgetown/Villanova/Notre Dame/Georgetown, and Pittsburgh/Louisville/West Virginia/Syracuse… at least on paper the later looks significantly harder. If the Bearcats can somehow manage to go 3-1 in the next four games it will be time for Bearcat fans to get excited. That is no doubt a tall order, but one that could really pay of huge. If the Bearcats go 2-2 the next four games I think things start to look a little more bleak, but there will still be hope. If the Bearcats go 1-3 I think you can close the door on an NCAA bid.

So let’s say the Bearcats win the next three games before losing to Georgetown on the road. They then manage to spoil Huggy Bear’s homecoming and take out the Mountaineers. That would like give the Bearcats 5-6 top 50 RPI wins with two of those wins possibly being top 25 wins. It would give the Bearcats 20 wins and a winning record in the toughest conference in the nation. That is an NCAA tournament profile.

All in all we are not in terrible shape. The chance will be there to play our way into the tournament over the course of the next few weeks. It is going to take significant improvement. It is going to take big time efforts night in and night out, but it is very possible. The next four games are enormous for this team. By the time they are through it we may start getting a pretty good idea of where the Bearcats are heading come March.

Can Anyone Run the Table?

It has been a few weeks since I gave a top 25 write-up. Since that time there have been numerous upsets. We have seen USC, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, South Florida and many other teams falter. As of right now no more than 3 BCS conference teams will run the table (and really I think Penn State is the only team with a good shot at doing so). This is shaping up to be a college football season very similar to last season For a hypothetical what happens if everyone has two losses except and unbeaten Penn State and an unbeaten BYU? Does BYU get a shot at the National Title? Will that scenario convince the major conference that a playoff is indeed necessary?

1. Texas- If you beat number one you have probably earned your spot at the top of the rankings. Colt McCoy should be the early Heisman trophy favorite. Yesterday against Oklahoma he completed 80 percent of his passes, took care of the football and rallied the Long Horns from 11 down. I do not think Texas can make it through a very difficult upcoming stretch unscathed. I think eventually their suspect passing defense will catch up to them, but this team has to be the favorite to win the Big 12 South Right now and could definitely be in the National Title.
2. Alabama- They may have a more complete resume than Texas at this point in the season. The Crimson Tide defense has been absolutely killing opponents this season. The more I look at Alabama’s schedule the more I think they could make it to the SEC Championship without a loss. Every week is tough in the SEC, no doubt about that, but I am not sure the SEC is as dominant as we all thought it was going to be. Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State are all games the Tide should win. Next week against a pesky Ole Miss is a big test and then there is the trip down to LSU on November 8. I still do not Alabama will run the table, but their schedule really does set up nicely for them down the stretch.
3. Penn State- Is Penn State the third best team in the country? I do not know. I do think Penn State is the major conference team most likely to run the table a reach the National Title game. The game at Ohio State in two weeks promises to be enormous and likely will decide the Big Ten. I know Penn State has had problems beating Michigan in recent years, but something tells me that game is going to get ugly next week. Penn State was incredibly impressive against Oregon State and Wisconsin and looked very impressive against Illinois as well. If Penn State runs the table and makes the National Title game it will be well earned.
4. Oklahoma- I still think they are the best of the 1 loss teams and probably the best team in the country, but they were exposed some against Texas. I know they were banged up on defense, but the Sooners have looked suspect against good passing attacks this year. In a conference with so many potent passing offenses that could be a cause for concern. The other area where Oklahoma has struggled this season is kickoff coverage. This loomed large yesterday as Texas really started to change the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. The loss to Texas pretty much takes their destiny out of their hands.
5. USC- The Trojan defense has been a force since the Oregon State loss. They put on a clinic yesterday. In a very down Pac Ten conference the Trojans are in prime position to run the table. They could be playing for a national title before it is all said and done.
6. Florida- Perhaps the most impressive team yesterday was the Florida Gators. Their offense made a very good LSU defense look stupid. I think Florida’s offense separates them from the rest of the SEC. If Florida plays like they did yesterday they are going to be tough to beat.
7. Georgia- The Bulldogs were not very impressive against Tennessee yesterday. They will need to play better the rest of the way if they are going to win the SEC East.
8. Oklahoma State- Probably the biggest jumpers seeing as I had not ranked them in any polls I have done this season. Oklahoma State is unbeaten and that road win against Missouri is about as good a win as a team can get. The most impressive thing about that game was the way their defense forced the brilliant Tiger offense into so many bad plays (and held Missouri to their first 3 and out of the season). They are going to have to do more to stay up here, but at 6-0 with a win on the road against Missouri they have earned a top ten spot.
9. Texas Tech- Here is where I am starting to have some trouble grouping teams. Texas Tech was not that impressive against Nebraska yesterday, but for the most part I like this Red Raider team. They play better defense than they have in the past (not saying too much) and that offense is going to light people up week after week. They play Texas A&M before getting games against Kansas and Texas. After that three game stretch we will know much more.
10. Ohio State- I flat out have not been impressed with Ohio State in any game this season and yet I still have them at number 10 because they always find a way to win games. Their defense had a great performance yesterday, but the Buckeye offense is far from potent. Still, with the game against Penn State at home I think Ohio State is going to have another shot at a Big Ten title.
11. Missouri- In the end they may be better than both Ohio State and Texas Tech, but I do not trust their defense. Until this week their offense had just been abusing teams. My biggest issue with Missouri is if an opposing defense can slow down their offense at all, Missouri is very vulnerable.
12. LSU- I am not very confident in either of their quarterbacks. The defense got abused by the Florida Gators yesterday, but I think that probably has more to do with that Gator offense finally clicking than the LSU defense. Bottom line, LSU is good enough to beat some people, maybe good enough to win the west, but they have too many weaknesses to be considered an elite team.
13. BYU- The Cougars are a team I struggle to rank. They have looked impressive enough week in and week out for me to put them around 13, but I do not think I can rank them much higher unless they really look great against the likes of TCU and Utah. I would love to see what they can do against top notch competition (and good for them they will go to a BCS bowl if they keep taking care of business)
14. South Florida- Their banged up defense struggled to stop the Pittsburgh running game. They still have great balance on offense and can really get after the quarterback on defense. I think their win over Kansas is a very good win and I think they have been impressive throughout the season.
15. Michigan State- They are just a solid football team. They run the ball and play very good defense. Fifteen might end up being a little high for them, but with solid wins over Notre Dame and Northwestern this seems reasonable.
16. North Carolina- The Tarheels got another big win this time against Notre Dame. Their defense continues to make plays. Butch Davis has to be a favorite for coach of the year.
17. Virginia Tech- They have been an entirely different team with Taylor at the quarterback position. They have not been overly impressive but keep finding ways to win games. Another BCS bid and an ACC championship are very much in reach.
18. Kansas- Kansas has won the games they need to win. They were impressive in the second half against Colorado. They have a hungry Oklahoma team this week followed by a date with Texas Tech…these are the regular season tests Kansas seemingly avoided last season and will tell us a lot.
19. Cincinnati- Six games, 4 different quarterbacks have seen the field. The Bearcats have continued to take care of business. This is the most talented team I can remember at UC and they have continued to battle through adversity. The Bearcats get to the bye and now have an extra week to get healthy before heading to UCONN. Tony Pike should be back to lead the cats into battle. The Bearcats still have the best receivers in the conference, they have a solid offensive line, and the running game has started to get going. The Bearcat defense has started to really put pressure on opposing teams and UC certainly has no shortage of playmakers in the secondary. All that combined with special teams units that are second to none and this Bearcat team is more likely to move up than go down.
20. Boise State- Their BCS fate likely hinges on Utah and BYU both losing, but the Broncos are once again having a special season.
21. Utah- We are getting closer and closer to an undefeated battle between Utah and BYU with a conference title and BCS bid on the line. Either will be a well deserved representative from the Mountain West Conference which has certainly looked like a BCS caliber league this season.
22. Wake Forest- I may be judging Wake Forest too harshly for their loss to Navy. Their other wins are certainly noteworthy. They have already beaten the preseason conference favorite and seem to have the upper hand in the ACC Atlantic.
23. Pittsburgh- I do not trust Pittsburgh, but if they play to their talent level they are definitely a top 25 team. They still have yet to demonstrate the consistency I think will be necessary for winning the Big East.
24. California- They have a really bad loss to Maryland and a really good win over Michigan State. I think they are the clear number two in the Pac Ten at this point, but at this point I am not sure how impressive being number two in the Pac ten is.
25. Ball State- I will give the class of the MAC some love. They have looked impressive and I do not particularly like my other options for this spot.

Best of the Rest (in no order): Tulsa, Florida State, Boston College, Tulsa, Notre Dame, Oregon, Vanderbilt

Big East Still Lacking Respect

In the college football world perception means far more than reality. As of this week the Big East Conference is down to 1 ranked team in the Coaches poll and 2 ranked teams in the AP poll. The perception is that the Big East is down and that there are not any really good teams in the conference. As a fan of the Big East there have been some disappointments this season. West Virginia has been the bellwether program for the conference, but they have started off slow under the new regime. Rutgers has fallen about as far as a program could fall in two seasons going from Big East contender in 2006 to a team that has yet to beat a single 1A opponent in 2008. With the sudden drop of these two programs and Louisville’s fall last season the general view is that the Big East is down ranks last when compared to the other BCS conferences. When one takes the time to examine the accomplishments and failings of the Big East, ACC and Pac Ten that perception does not hold up. There really has not been a major difference in the performances of these conferences…merely the perception. In a sport dominated by polls, perception is far too often viewed as reality.

We can gain a better understanding of the perception vs. reality argument when we compare the two major BCS programs in Ohio. This season Ohio State has beaten 1AA Youngstown State while the Bearcats beat 1AA Eastern Kentucky. The Buckeyes trailed the MAC’s Ohio University in the 4th quarter before rallying to win, while the Bearcats trailed Akron in the 4th quarter before doing the same. Cincinnati thumped the Miami Redhawks at home and Ohio State got by Minnesota. Ohio State played then number 1 ranked USC on the road and the game was over by mid second quarter. The Bearcats played the currently number 1 ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Norman and let the game get away from them over a 5 minute stretch in the third quarter. Up until this past weekend these two teams had nearly identical resumes. They had not beaten anyone of any real significance and had been beaten solidly by top ten teams (In UC’s case the team currently sitting number 1 in the country). If OSU had done exactly what Cincinnati did against Cincinnati’s schedule they would have more than likely been ranked about where they are right now. However, because OSU has history and went to the national title the last two years they get more credit than a UC team that finished at number 17 last season. And in Ohio State’s case I think their ranking is fairly well earned. However, the larger point is that until last weekend’s trip to Camp Randall they had not done anything particularly impressive this season and their ranking was simply a product of perception.

I think it has been pretty obvious that the best conferences this season are the SEC and Big 12 in that order. After those two the Big 10 has looked like a solid number 3. However, among the Big East, ACC, Pac Ten and even the Mountain West it has been far harder to see a distinct difference. The Big East has two absolutely horrendous teams in Syracuse and Rutgers (well Rutgers has been so far at least). That being said the Pac Ten comes to the table with Washington, Washington State, and UCLA, another pretty awful combination of teams, while the ACC boasts Virginia, Duke and North Carolina State. The bottom of all three conferences...well, no world beaters among that group.

These conferences are pretty similar among there top 70-75 percent (That’s top 7 for the Pac Ten, top 9 for the ACC and top 6 for the Big East). The top 6 teams in the Big East have gone 23-8 winning 74 percent of their games. The top 9 in the ACC have gone 34-12 winning an identical 74 percent of their games. Meanwhile the top 7 (70 percent) of the Pac Ten have gone 22-14 winning only 61 percent of their games. When we look at these league records as an aggregate it is clear they have been pretty similar.

According to the AP top 25 the ACC has 3 teams ranked (Virginia Tech, UNC, and Wake Forest), the Big East has 2 teams ranked (South Florida and Pittsburgh) and the Pac Ten has 1 team ranked (USC). Of these teams South Florida, UNC, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh all have pretty compelling cases for their rankings. Pittsburgh has a bad loss but they have beaten Iowa and have a road win over USF. The Bulls have taken down Kansas, Central Florida, and pounded NC State. North Carolina probably should have beaten Virginia Tech but has big victories over Rutgers and UCONN to go with a win over the Miami Hurricanes. Virginia Tech has beaten Georgia Tech, UNC and Nebraska with their 1 loss coming to East Carolina. I have a harder time justifying Wake Forest’s ranking because of their loss to Navy, but they too have some meat on their schedule so far.

Each one of these conferences has some good non-conference wins over BCS opponents. The best wins for the Big East Conference to date are over Kansas, Iowa, NC State, Virginia, Kansas State and Baylor. The Best Wins for the ACC are over Mississippi, UCONN, Cal, Colorado, and Rutgers. The Best wins for the Pac ten are Ohio State and Virginia (both by USC), Tennessee (by an awful UCLA team), Purdue and Michigan State.

Ignoring the bottom teams I already mentioned in these conferences lets examine who the non-conference losses are to in each league. The Big East has lost to UNC, Oklahoma, Kentucky, East Carolina and Colorado. The one really bad loss for the top teams in the league was Pitt losing to Bowling Green. The ACC has losses to Alabama, South Florida, Florida, USC to go with bad losses to Navy and Middle Tennessee State. The Pac Ten has losses to BYU, Fresno State, UNLV, New Mexico, Maryland, TCU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia and Utah. In reality the Pac Ten has more questionable losses than the ACC or Big East. Really the only team who has carried the torch for the Pac Ten is USC.

Despite 3 straight BCS bowl wins over the SEC champ, the ACC champ and the Big 12 champ; despite an 8-2 record the last two seasons in bowl games; despite regular season victories this season and last over Auburn, Oregon State, Kansas, Virginia, Kansas State, and Maryland among others the Big East is still not perceived like the other leagues. The slip-ups by Big East teams get viewed in a more negative light than those of ACC and Pac Ten teams. The recent accomplishments of Big East teams are quickly dismissed or forgotten. In reality no team in the Big East has yet to really show they are a top notch team, though there are some teams that have the potential to be there by seasons end (South Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and I would never rule out WVU). Though there is not that clear top team, the league is still solid and has been every bit the conference the Pac Ten and ACC have been this season.

People keep asking the question of whether or not the Big East can win a BCS bowl (the same question was asked the last three years and answered the same way each time…yes). The Big East has plenty of good teams, whether it is recognized nationally or not. I would bet the farm that if you put BYU, Boise State, or Utah in this conference they would lose 2 or 3 games. There is plenty of talent on the field every week. In the battle to gain consistent respect and positive perception among the college football elite the Big East is not their yet. Despite that the product on the field has been, is, and will continue to be fine. The Big East will have another solid year, another solid Bowl Season, and may even win another BCS Bowl. So much of college football is perception based and not reality based…to me the perception that the Big East is down this season continues to be overblown. The Big East had done plenty to establish themselves as a solid BCS conference and by seasons end there will be plenty of accomplished teams carrying the torch for the Big East Conference.

A Cub Fan Refuses to Give Up Hope

That was the second inning from hell. I guess the Cubs defense was only credited with two errors (I thought Theriot should have had one as well). Big Z got not 1, not 2, but three double play balls that the Cubs infielders promptly coughed up and turned into ZERO outs. Think about that for a minute… They Cubs left 6 outs on the table. Carlos Zambrano basically was asked to get three innings worth of outs in one inning. When I think about how badly that inning went it makes me sick. Those are plays the Cubs infielders have made all year. The Cubs ranked second in defense this season… they consistently played great baseball and yet in that one instance it all fell apart. You cannot give any team 1 extra out, much less 6.

Looking back I was proud of the way Z handled himself that inning. So much went wrong he could have lost it. Sure he ended up giving up the big bases loaded double to Martin, but the man had already been out there far too long. When he left the Wrigley fans gave him a well deserved standing ovation... Z brought it last night when no one else did. I hope I get the chance to see Z pitch again this season.

As last night closed Cubs fans were heartbroken, viewing their season as being over. But here is the thing about baseball that is so easy forget through all the heartbreak the Cubs have inflicted…momentum can easily get stopped by a great pitcher. On Saturday the Cubs are sending out their most dominating pitcher to try to save the season in LA. Harden has been nearly unhittable at his best this season. He is rested and he is ready to go.

When the Red Sox were down 3-0 against the Yankees in 2004 it appeared that their season was over. At that point you just have to go out and play the next game. If anyone had the choice of having Rich Harden or Hiroki Kuroda to start a playoff game for them who do you think the choice would be? This is a game that a fan would look at as one the Cubs are most likely to win in any other circumstance. So lets get this one and then worry about the next one.

The biggest difference between this Cubs team and last years Cubs team is the depth of their rotation. The Cubs are not putting Rich Hill on the mound with their season on the line, they are putting Rich Harden. If Rich gets through that game the Cubs will not be trying to run Z on short rest, they will be giving the ball to a rested Ted Lily to face a Dodger Lineup that thrives on left handed bats. If Rich Harden can do what aces do he can stop the momentum and start getting it back the other way. The Cubs just need to relax. No one expects them to win now, so go do it.

This Cubs team has battled all season. They have come back from 8 runs down to beat the Rockies, they’ve had a 2 out ninth inning rally to beat Brewers, they’ve had multiple 5+ game winning streaks…they can do this. Their backs are against the wall, they are down, but they are not out. If this series ever gets back to Chicago the pressure is going to be on the Dodgers just as much as it is on the Cubs. I want to close with wisdom from the great Andy Duphrane:
“Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.” Have hope Cubs fans…I for one have not given up yet.

How the Big East Will Play Out

This has not exactly been a picture perfect season for the Big East Conference. Louisville started the year getting killed by Kentucky, Rutgers and Syracuse cannot beat anyone, Pitt lost at home to a MAC team, Cincinnati lost by 26 to Oklahoma, and perennially Big East power West Virginia has already lost twice. Still Louisville seemed to turn the corner last week in taking care of Kansas State, Cincinnati got great play from quarterback Tony Pike against Miami Ohio, Pitt took care of unbeaten Iowa, Connecticut remains unbeaten and South Florida has already taken care of Kansas and Central Florida. In reality the Big East has been no more down than the ACC or the Pac Ten. Still the question that looms as Big East conference play begins Friday night is: What do we expect from the conference the rest of the way?

I look back at my preseason projections and realize…wow was I wrong about two teams. West Virginia has not played anywhere close to the level they played the last two seasons and Rutgers has fallen completely off of the map. At the same time, much of the Big East has gone as one could have expected: Pitt looks improved from last year, but certainly not at the crazy level that made “experts” pick them to win the Big East and make a BCS bowl. UConn has been the steady team they were all last year…winning their close games. South Florida and Syracuse have picked up right where they left off (one team is happier than the other about that). And the Bearcats have given us no reason to think they cannot be better than last season. So as Louisville and Connecticut get set to open Big East play Friday night I want to take the time to revisit the Big East, ranking them largely based on what they have shown so far this season and dissecting their best and worst case scenarios.

1. Cincinnati

Best Case Scenario- Tony Pike continues to be the answer at quarterback and runs up the score the next three weeks against Akron, Marshall and Rutgers. The defensive line gains valuable experience and begins to get consistent pressure on the quarterback giving the back of the defense more opportunities to make plays. The Bearcat corners begin forcing turnovers in bunches, making them one of the better defenses in the country. The Bearcats then start their defining three game stretch of the season with another dominating performance at Connecticut. That sets up a Thursday night, nationally televised game against a top ten South Florida Bulls team. The Bearcats look like the better team all game and win by two touchdowns. They take care of business the rest of the way, running through the conference to a 12-1 regular season.

Worst Case Scenario- Tony Pike continues to look good until conference play begins and the pressure heats up. He struggles against the defenses of Uconn, South Florida and West Virginia. The defensive line continues to be a weak spot for the Bearcat defense and as a result the secondary gets exposed underneath game in and game out. The Bearcats have enough talent on both sides of the football to win games, but they finish 4-3 in the conference (9-4 overall) and head back to Birmingham for a second straight season.

My Forecast- I think Tony Pike continues to play well and use the great talent he has all around him. I think the defensive line gets better throughout the year (though never gets the consistent pass rush that Hoke and Craig were able to get). The Bearcats run the table at Nippert, including big wins over USF and Pitt, but lose a road game either at WVU or at Louisville. The Bearcats make their first ever BCS bowl at 11-2 (6-1 in the Big East).

2. South Florida

Best Case Scenario- South Florida avoids the inconsistency that killed them last season and has shown its face at times in games against Kansas, UCF, and Florida Internationally this season. Matt Grothe wins the conference player of the year and George Selvie wins the defensive player of the year. South Florida sweeps their home schedule. They go into Cincinnati for that huge Thursday night game and beat the Bearcats moving the Bulls to the brink of the top 5. The Bulls eventually lose one, but win the conference and make their first ever BCS bowl game.

Worst Case Scenario- South Florida slips up before conference play and loses a road game at North Carolina State. Road games at Cincinnati, Louisville and West Virginia prove to be a tough hill to climb. The Bulls lose two of those and a home game to Uconn or Pitt to finish 8-4 (4-3) in the Big East.

My Forecast- I think South Florida and Cincinnati are pretty equal in terms of how good they are. However, I think the Bearcats are more dynamic offensively and ultimately more consistent. Grothe keeps the Bulls rolling up until they face Louisville. I think the Louisville game will be a fight with the Bulls ultimately coming out on top. Their reward will be a game 5 days later against a Cincinnati Bearcat team coming off a bye week, at Nippert on national television. I think the Bulls lose that game, beat Rutgers and then lose one more to either Uconn or WVU to finish the season 10-2 (5-2 in the Big East).

3. Louisville

Best Case Scenario- The Cardinals really have turned the corner since that debacle against Kentucky. Hunter Cantwell shows the promise everyone saw in him when he stepped in for an injured Brian Brohm, while victor Anderson becomes the talk of the Big East as running back. The defense, which seems much improved, continues to play well and limits some really good offenses. Louisville takes advantage of a great schedule which brings Uconn, South Florida, Cincinnati and West Virginia to Papa Johns to go 5-2 in the Big East and tie for a conference championship.

Worst Case Scenario- Kansas State was not very good and the Kentucky game was a better gauge for this Louisville team. The Cardinals revert to their awful play of last season and get swept at home in Big East play. Louisville fans call for Kragthrope’s head and start wishing for the days of Bobby Petrino. After a last place finish in the SEC west at Arkansas Petrino tells everyone that he is not interested in taking the Louisville job, but quietly begins talking to boosters. The boosters convince Jurich to take the Big East commissioner job then hire a new AD who gives Petrino his second chance in Louisville for a ton of money.

My Forecast- Louisville does begin to turn the corner, but still remains a relatively inconsistent team. They beat Uconn in a tough game Friday night to keep the momentum going. They are competitive in all their games, but ultimately lose 3 in the conference to finish 4-3.

4. Connecticut

Best Case Scenario- The Huskies continue to win close game after close game and show that last year’s co-championship was not a fluke. Big East fans on every message board are forced to eat crow. The Huskies take care of business in their next three including wins @ Louisville and @ North Carolina. They lose a tough game at South Florida and one home game to either Cincinnati, Pitt or West Virginia to finish 10-2 and 5-2 in the conference for another share of the conference title. They end up sharing the conference title with one of the teams they beat and represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario- The breaks just do not go their way this season. Louisville goes out and wins by two scores starting a streak where the Huskies lose 4 of their next 5 games and 6 of their last 8 to finish 6-6. Uconn does not get invited to a bowl game…every message board non-husky fan is vindicated.

My forecast- Behind good coaching and a strong defense Uconn continues to be a solid big east team. They do, however, come back to earth. I think the Huskies lose 4 the rest of the way, one of those could be to North Carolina. I think they finish 8-4 and either 4-3 or 3-4 in the Big East.

5. Pittsburgh

Best Case Scenario- Pittsburgh’s boring style of play works. Their running game is incredibly successful and helps the Panthers dominate the clock in Big East play. Pitt sweeps their home slate and loses two on the road (and also beats Notre Dame) to finish 9-3 and 5-2 in the Big East. Panther fans still think that Pitt underachieved as Pitt finishes behind Cincinnati or South Florida and does get to play in a BCS game. Dave Wannstedt gets another year and the stupid preseason polls pick Pitt to finish in the top 5.

Worst Case Scenario- Pitt is still a reflection of the 5-7 team from a season ago. They get swept in their conference road games, lose at Notre Dame and lose one to Rutgers or Syracuse. At 6-6 the Panthers once again do not get invited to a bowl game. The 7 football fans in Pittsburgh who do not just care about the Steelers make 7000 different fire Wannstedt websites and spend the next 20 days posting messages on them from different people every ten minutes. It is still 50/50 on whether Wannstedt keeps his job, but either way ESPN picks them to win the Big East the following season.

My Forecast- Pitt is better this year, but still not good enough to compete for a Big East title. They go 4-3 or 3-4 in the league, they beat Notre Dame and they get to go bowling for the first time in the Wannstedt era.

6. West Virginia

Best Case Scenario- The Mountaineers have been merely adjusting to a different style of play and it has taken some time for them to get it together. As Big East play starts all of a sudden it clicks…they get it. West Virginia’s offense becomes the unstoppable force they have been in the past. They run through the Big East taking advantage of a great schedule, go unbeaten, and inflict another beating on a BCS conference champion in a BCS Bowl (this time from the Big Ten or Pac 10).

Worst Case Scenario- West Virginia decides they should not have hired Bill Stewart. The offense continues to struggle and the defense, well, other than last year they were never that good. West Virginia has their first losing season in Big East play. Fans have a large impromptu carwash to buyout Bill Stewart’s contract. They do not raise nearly enough money.

My Forecast- I do not have the slightest idea. West Virginia is the biggest wildcard in the conference. You would think they have far too much talent to just fade into oblivion, but they certainly have not given us any reason to have any confidence in them this year. This is the team that scares me the most as a Bearcat fan… but really my fears could be foolish. I guess we will find out.

7. Rutgers

Best Case Scenario- Mike Teel is benched for someone, anyone. That someone actually puts the ball in the end-zone instead of wasting their talented receivers. Rutgers wins a few games, goes 3-4 in the conference, misses out on a bowl but shows some talent for next year.

Worst Case Scenario- November 9 becomes the official battle for last place in the Big East conference. Syracuse comes into Piscataway and intercepts Mike Teel 5 times. The Orangemen get out of town with a win avoiding another last place season. Greg Schiano’s name does not come up in the off-season for any new head coaching jobs.

My Forecast- Rutgers beats Syracuse and one other team to get two Big East wins.

8. Syracuse

Best Case Scenario- Syracuse beats Rutgers to get to one win in the conference.

Worst Case Scenario- Syracuse goes winless in the Big East.

My Forecast- Syracuse goes winless in the Big East…someone else is coaching the Orange next season.

Miami Fans Break Down the Cincinnati Bearcats

It could be a long time before the Miami Redhawks beat the Cincinnati Bearcats again. The Bearcats have now taken three straight from their one time bitter rivals, looking pretty dominant during the last two meeting. I was interested in seeing how the Miami fans were taking the game so I scoured the internet for fan interest. Lucky for me I found a little know Miami Redhawks fan site called www.iwearthreeshirtsandlotsofhairgeltothebar.com where Miami fans had discussed the action before and after the game. I thought I would their thoughts with a wider Bearcat audience.

Right Before Kickoff:

Muredhawk27: Alright everyone, kickoff is in a few minutes. Any predictions?
Poppinmycollar: Well, last year was bad for us, but UC does not have Mauk anymore. We will not let that happen again. Plus Michigan and Vandy are both better than UC. I think we can win.
Muredhawk27: I think you’re right. We need to shove it Brian Kelly’s face. We have a 13 game lead in this series and Kelly thinks they are better than us. What a crappy program.
Poppinmycollar: Good point. Yea, we missed a great chance last year to make Kelly regret those words. You know we will be pumped up this year.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: We are every bit as good as the Bearcats. We out-recruit them every year. We have just as talented of players. It all comes down to coaching.
Firemonty: Monty sucks, but this will still be a better game. The Bearcats gave up freaking 52 points last week and are playing a QB who has never played a down. You know they will struggle.

Right After Kickoff:

Poppinmycollar: Great start. We kick it short to avoid a runback and give them great field position, just great.
Firemonty: Awful move. Our coach should be fired. He is no Randy Walker, he is no Terry Hoeppner. We are Miami, we always have great coaches. Why wouldn’t you just kick to whoever UC’s crappy return guy is?
Reasonableredhawk: Well their “crappy” return guy set an all purpose yards record against Oklahoma last week. That may have something to do with it.
Poppingmycollar: Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Three and out, held UC to three. See their offense is really going to struggle this week. We gave Michigan all they can handle and if Michigan cannot move the ball on Miami, no way Cincinnati can.

After Bearcats go up 10-0:

Reasonableredhawk: Well that was too easy.
Poppinmycollar: We gave up one big play. UC is not going to be able to sustain drives against us. We just have to take that away.
Firemonty: Just terrible defensive play calling. Someone should fire Monty already.

Redhawks drive deep into Bearcat territory down 10-0:

Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: I told you they could not stop our offense. We are about to get 6. This is all of a sudden a game.
Reasonableredhawk: Do not speak too soon we still have to convert.

Bearcats hold Redhawks to three:

Firemonty: Of course, the play calling gets awful when we get in the red zone. Be aggressive, spread the Bearcats out.
Bearcats score another touchdown to go up 17-3:
Reasonableredhawk: I think the Bearcats are probably just a lot better than us. We cannot stop them. That was a great catch by Marty Gilyard.
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: We have just as much talent. We just stalled in the red zone earlier and their guy made a nice play.
Firemonty: They are not better, we are just getting outcoached.

Redhawks score after two awful pass interference penalties:

Reasonableredhawk: Well we got two big breaks there.
Firemonty: UC was all over those receivers
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: The Cincinnati corners simply cannot keep up with our receivers. Big touchdown by the offense.

Bearcats go into half time up 24 to 13

Poppinmycollar: Well, we get the ball to start the second half. The offense has looked really good let’s see what we can do.
Reasonableredhawk: Yea we are still in the game. We got a few breaks with the Bearcats committing some really bad penalties and having some tough calls against them. I was glad to see the offense take advantage. We still have not been able to stop the Bearcats, they have not punted yet.
Firemonty: We get the ball to start the second half. It will be nice if Montgomery does not screw it up.

Miami cuts the lead to 24-20

Poppinmycollar: Yes!
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: I told you we were as talented as them.
Reasonableredhawk: Ok we cannot give up anything big on the kickoff.
Firemonty: ONSIDE KICK!
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Now that was a gutsy move!
Reasonableredhawk: Great decision, our defense has not been able to stop that Bearcat offense all game. Pike has looked like Peyton Manning out there. Let’s get some points.

Mickens returns the interception for a touchdown

Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: Who was he throwing to?
Poppinmycollar: If we lose this game because of that play I am going to flip out.
Firemonty: I am sure it was Shane Montgomery’s fault. We have just as good of players.

UC scores another TD to go up 38-20

Reasonableredhawk: Well this game is getting out of hand quickly.

Game ends with 45-20 UC win

Poppinmycollar: Remember when we used to beat the Bearcats?
Thinksbigbenisstillaredhawk: This is embarrassing. Two straight seasons of just getting killed by the Bearcats, three straight losses.
Poppinmycollar: I think this may be how it is going to be for a while. Wow.
Firemonty: It will be like this until we fire Monty. Jeez, we were every bit as talented as the Bearcats, but they just have better coaching.
Reasonableredhawk: Were you watching the same game? We did not have the athletes to keep up with their depth at wide receiver. Their offensive line moved our defense all game long. They were faster across the board, both on defense and on offense. We did a good job not letting them get pressure on our quarterback, but other than that they were simply a better team. We needed some breaks to make it this close.
Poppinmycollar: Brian Kelly pissed a lot of us off two years ago, but he has backed it up both times he has played us. We simply are not in Cincinnati’s league anymore.
Reasonableredhawk: Nothing to be ashamed of. We can still compete for MAC titles, but the athletic ability of the Bearcats is just above our level.
Firemonty: No man… we can win. We are Miami… Just fire Monty.


My Thoughts:

Last season when Brian Kelly declared that UC playing Miami home and home may not be what a program of Cincinnati’s stature should do there was a large outcry from the Miami population. I went up for the game and talked to a number of students who had little faith in the Bearcat football program and still believed that Miami was every bit as good of a program as Cincinnati. I think the last two seasons have shown that the programs are going in entirely different directions. For the most part the Bearcats are in an entirely different league than the Redhawks. I have even noticed some Miami fans starting to acknowledge the clear separation.

I believed from day 1 that Kelly’s comments had little to do with trying to insult Miami or belittle the rivalry and far more to do with getting Bearcat fans and local media to start viewing the Cincinnati program as the BCS program that it is. Cincinnati has an opportunity to play in a BCS bowl each and every year. We are clearly the number 2 program in a very talent rich state (and yes I say number 2 because at this point the Buckeyes are more established). Kelly’s comments were there to get people talking and get people thinking about what the Bearcat program can become.
UC’s dominance over Miami the last two seasons reinforces how far the Bearcats have come since joining the Big East. Gone are the days when Miami and UC would battle it out year after year. That simply is not going to happen anymore. I hope UC and Miami continue to play. If we continue to play year in and year out there will be seasons where Miami is up or UC is down where the Bearcats could lose, but they will be few and far between. If this series continues the Bearcats are going to eventually catch Miami in the overall series and the rivalry will start to lose some significance, but I cannot foresee beating Miami as ever getting old.

As the Battle for the Victory Bell continues I see it playing out more as a tune-up game than anything else (and what a fun tune-up game it will be for that matter). UC simply has bigger and better things ahead. The dominance the Bearcats have shown over Miami the past two seasons illustrates the direction the Bearcat program is heading. We are no longer a small time college football program. We are UC. We are a program that can play in BCS bowls and eventually play for BCS championships. We are a program that will have the opportunity to recruit the best athletes and schedule the best teams. We are going to start selling out Nippert and going to eventually have to expand. Bearcat fans who have been there from the start there is no need to lament attendance, or media coverage, or not being ranked…we will get there. What the Miami game best illustrated for me is the progress we have made already towards being a big time BCS program. In the future I expect that progress to continue. Bearcat football is moving forward at a rapid pace and that is something we can all celebrate.

Boise State Back In the Top 25

Bearcatmark’s week 4 top 25:

1. Oklahoma – Their last non-conference loss at home was to… TCU, you can bet the Sooners will be ready for this game. The loss of DeMarcus Granger should not do much to derail the Oklahoma Sooners.

2. USC- As I look at USC’s schedule I am trying to decide who can challenge them at all this year…it’s a tough question. The Pac Ten is down, Notre Dame is not that good; USC should be able to run the table. I think they certainly have the clearest path to the National Title.

3. Georgia- Good win at Arizona State. Last season the Pac Ten tried to make its case for being as good as the SEC… this season it’s not even close.

4. Florida- Once again the Gators proved to have Tennessee’s number. Florida started quickly and never gave Tennessee a chance to even be in the game. That is the sign of a very good team.

5. Missouri – Can anyone stop this offense?

6. Texas Tech- Or this one?

7. LSU- It is hard not to love Les Miles. The defending national champions got an enormous win on the road against a very game Auburn team. The Tigers get Alabama and Georgia at home this year though they still must travel to “the swamp” in three weeks. As far as the SEC goes they passed the first major test, in typical late game, Les Miles fashion.

8. The Badgers had a bye this week and now get @Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, @Iowa and Illinois the next five weeks. I cannot imagine them getting through that stretch of games unscathed, but you may notice they get Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois in Camp Randall. That is a huge advantage for the Badgers in the Big Ten race. I think the Badgers are very good and a top ten team. I do not think they are a BCS championship caliber team, but that schedule certainly sets up nicely.

9. Alabama- The Tide continue to roll on. They looked incredibly impressive this week and already made a good Clemson team look stupid. Georgia is going to have their hands full come Saturday.

10. Texas- The top ten continues to be dominated by the Big 12 and SEC (4 teams from each conference are there). It is really interesting reading all the articles on how the Big East, ACC and Pac Ten are down this year. In truth all three conferences have not done near as well as they would like, but I think the bigger story is just how good the top half of the Big 12 and the SEC are this year. Both of those conferences are going to be fun to watch.

11. Auburn- I cannot fault them much for losing a competitive game against a big time LSU team. Even in defeat Auburn showed they are a borderline top ten team this season.

12. Penn State- The Nittany Lions continue to look dominant. Much like with Wisconsin their next five games will tell the story of the their season, but unlike Wisconsin they have to hit the road against some really good teams. Over the next 5 games Penn State plays Illinois, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Michigan and @ Ohio State. I cannot see them making it through that stretch unbeaten.

13. South Florida- Though they are the highest ranked Big East team, the Bulls were sloppy this week against a bad Florida International team. They will need a better effort to beat NC State next week.

14. “one of the” Ohio State Universities (the one in Columbus for those of you keeping score at home) – If the Buckeyes could get steady quarterback play I would feel a lot better about them. The top of the Big 10 looks fairly solid this season, I think the Buckeyes will lose one or two more before it is all said and done.

15. BYU- Maybe they should be higher, I don’t know. Talk about a team that is living up to the hype. The Cougars are not beating teams they are putting Nebraska of the 1990s beating on teams. Since limping by Washington they have won 59-0 against UCLA and 44-0 over Wyoming. For BYU to get a BCS bid they will have to earn it, because in truth the Mountain west has been every bit as good as the Pac Ten, Big East and ACC this season (in fact the Mountain West stands 5-0 against the Pac Ten). Utah, TCU, UNLV, and Air Force are all tough squads. BYU is going to have plenty of chances to keep on climbing.

16. Kansas- Recovered from their loss to South Florida nicely against Sam Houston State, but then again they recovered against Sam Houston State. I am really anxious to see Kansas in the Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech stretch that looms in a couple of weeks. The Jayhawks made a living by beating teams they were clearly better than last season…they were very consistent. We will get a better idea of what their level actually is this season.

17. Illinois- Second major test of the year is this Saturday night in Happy Valley. The defense had no hope of stopping Missouri, but that probably has more to do with how good Missouri is than anything else.

18. Wake Forest- Lee Corso picked Florida State to win an ACC game for the 5 millionth straight time this weekend… that method has certainly failed him the last few years, but I am sure he got a lot of mileage off of it throughout the 90s. Wake Forest did not let the Seminoles do anything on Saturday. I think that along with Clemson they are the favorites to win the ACC. Wake Forest has to be one of the most well coached teams in America.

19. Boise State- The Broncos make their triumphant return to the top 25 this week after a big win at Oregon. Boise State controlled the game from start to finish though allowed a late Oregon rally to make the game closer. Ian Johnson is still a Bronco (I swear he has been at Boise State longer than Kevin Frey was at Xavier) and this year's Bronco’s may actually be a better passing team than two years ago when they beat Oklahoma.

20. Clemson- They were the pre-season ACC favorite for a reason… the talent is there. Now the consistency, that is another question entirely.

21. Cincinnati- 20-24! Tony Pike was sensational in his debut for the Bearcats in the least flashy of ways. Tony was just plain efficient, when a receiver was open he general hit him and hit him in stride. When on the field, the Bearcat offense was a machine against Miami. If they can get that kind of production from Tony Pike week in and week out there is no reason the Bearcats cannot win the Big East.

22. East Carolina- Tough loss to North Carolina State, but that’s a rivalry game on the road. They stay in the top 25 on the strength of victories over WVU and VT.

23. Fresno State- The second WAC team in the top 25, their win over Rutgers is not looking like that much these days, but they also gave Wisconsin all they could handle.

24. Utah- They have three pretty good wins against UNLV, Michigan and Air Force. That is enough to keep them in the top 25 for the time being.

25. Vanderbilt- A win over South Carolina and a road win against Ole Miss is good enough to get Vanderbilt in my top 25 for now. I was going to wait a week until they had played Auburn but when comparing them to the long list of toss-up teams I have for the 25^th spot I just think their wins stand out more.

The extras (Almost there but not quite…in no order)

Virginia Tech- In my first draft I had them in the top 25, but as I compared them to others I just did not think they quite held up. The win on the road against the Tarheels was very good, but I want to see a little more from this very young team before I move them forward. It is hard to know much about Virginia Tech because they lack experience.

Uconn- I think they are too one dimensional to be a real threat in the Big East. They smacked around Virginia one week and then let Baylor give them all they could handle the next. The defense is generally good, the running game is good, and they seem to always win the close ones, but I want to see them against better competition.

Ball State- They look like the class of the MAC. That offense is really good.

Michigan State- Nice with for Dantonio against the fighting Irish this weekend.

Kentucky- 3-0 with a defense that looks much better. They’ll have plenty of chances to move up.

Louisville- The Louisville team we saw against Kansas State was a completely different team from the team we saw against Kentucky. It was like night and day. Everyone knows Louisville has the talent. Their game against Uconn this week could be a big one in the Big East.