Mike Thomas:
I have been a Cincinnati Bearcat my entire life. I grew up wearing Red and Black and attending as many Bearcat football and basketball games as possible. My father earned his PHD from the University of Cincinnati, taught night classes in Sociology and worked as an administrator in the College of Business. I started attending games with him at the age of 3, but really started remembering the games at 5.
Throughout my years as a Bearcat fan I was able to watch the Bearcats reel of 14 straight NCAA tournament bids. I got to see them win Conference title after Conference title. I was able to watch them make 1 final four, 3 elite eights and 4 sweet sixteens. During those years the University only accepted excellence. Mediocrity would simply not be tolerated... It was a standard I grew to appreciate from a University that clearly cared about its basketball program.
In the fall of 2005 the University fired the man largely responsible for the great success of the University of Cincinnati Bearcat basketball program. It was that success that was a huge component in getting UC into the Big East which has greatly benefited this University. It was a decision at the time I vehemently disagreed with, but one in which the administration clearly has a right to make.
Still there was a responsibility for the administration to show they were fully committed to the basketball program... that this decision was not going to mean basketball would be left to wallow in mediocrity. When you were brought in as athletic director you gave us an ambitious goal...one that we could be proud to be shooting for, to win a conference title in every sport within 5 years. In the spring of 2006 you hired Mick Cronin to hopefully continue the Bearcat basketball program's tradition of success. Cronin was an impressive young coach, whom Bearcat fans were very familiar with. He had been a top assistant for two big time coaches in Huggins and Pitino. He did not have much experience as a head coach, but in his brief time at Murray State he was successful (though to be fair that team has won 14 regular season OVC titles and been to 12 NCAA tournaments in the last 23 years under 6 different coaches... everyone wins at Murray State).
We all understood that results from Mick Cronin would not come immediately. The program only returned 2 scholarship players in 2006. Bearcat fans fully understood that this would be a painful season. In 2007 we hoped for better, but really were not expecting any excellence. Still with their win over South Florida on February 20 the Bearcats got their record to over .500 and were 8-5 in the Big East. All of a sudden the NIT was a real possibility and some of us were even dreaming of a crazy run to the NCAA tournament. In the end the Bearcats would lose their last 7 games ending the season on an awful note.
The hope was that year three would be different, that year three would be the season the Bearcats were right on the edge of being an NCAA tournament team. Once again their came a point when that was a real possibility. With their road win at Georgetown on February 7 the Bearcats were 16-8 and 7-5 in Big East play. They were 3 or 4 wins from an NCAA tournament birth. Everything was looking up for the Bearcat program. Then for a second straight year the Bearcats absolutely faded down the stretch. They went 1-6 their last 7 games, including losses to South Florida, Seton Hall and then the ultimate embarrassment losing to previously winless Depaul in the conference tournament. For a second straight season a year that had shown so much promise turned into abject failure when it mattered most and the Bearcats were not even playing in the NIT.
Starting year four the pieces were in place. The Bearcats brought back a four year starter at shooting guard who was poised to become one of the top scorers in Bearcat history. They returned one of the most talented big men in the country in Yancy Gates. They had one of the the top freshman in the country coming in to contribute and were finally going to get true point guard play from Cashmere Wright and Jaquan Parker. The Bearcats showed their talent early in season down in Maui when they beat what would end up being two 4 seeds in the NCAA tournament in Maryland and Vanderbilt. Now given the lack of practices before the NCAA season starts early in the season talent tends to win out because teams have not had the opportunity to get their identity in place. Our talent this season was evident from day 1.
This team should have been an NCAA tournament team. Not only should they have been an NCAA tournament team, but they should have been a higher seed in the NCAA a tournament. The talent was there, but throughout the season the Bearcats never established an identity, never developed a regular lineup with regular substitution patterns, never developed an offense that played to their strengths and did not show consistent effort. All of those factors led to a team that woefully underachieved...a team that had two high profile non-conference wins early and then did nothing to build no those the rest of the way (and they were given a ton of chances to do so).
The last three seasons the Bearcats have finished 10th, 10th and now 11th in the Big East Conference. The last three seasons the Bearcats have gone 8-10, 8-10 and now 7-11 in the Big East Conference. I am trying to figure out where the development is. Where is the improvement? This season the Bearcats blew several games by simple lack of execution; Inability to execute in bounds plays late in games, inability to execute offensive sets out of timeouts. They lost other games because their offense was content to launch threes instead of get their better players the ball in places where they can score. These are issues that do not exist on that level with a competent coach. Last night against Dayton was a great example of the Bearcats simply getting outworked by an A10 team that went .500 in their conference.
My point is it is clear right here and right now that Mick Cronin is not the answer for the University of Cincinnati basketball program (unless the question is how can we avoid making the NCAA tournament for as long as possible?). He has certainly improved the talent level immensely here at UC, but he has not shown an ability to develop that talent and win with that talent. Deonta Vaughn was the same player last night that he was when he stepped foot on the court four years ago. Yancy Gates continues to be passive and not demand the ball. Lance Stephenson should have been used a variety of different ways, not just for getting the ball on the perimeter and breaking down the defense off the drive. Mick has not shown at all that he can get the most out of his players.
Should Cronin continue to be the Bearcat basketball coach it will be very hard for me to believe the University is as committed to winning as they tried to convince us when they hired Cronin 4 years ago. I've watched nearly every game the last 4 seasons and I am trying to find the evidence of his ability to win at a high level. If you think it is there... share it with the fan base. Let us know the reason you believe, despite all the evidence...despite three straight years of finishing basically in the exact same spot (10, 10 and 11) in the Big East... despite going 5-11 against tournament teams this year (and 3-10 after Maui) that I should feel hope for the future. If you are 100% convinced that Mick is the answer than by all means stay with him.
If you are not, the time to change is now. We only lose two players off the roster (Vaughn and Toyloy). The Bearcats bring back Gates and Stephenson who are two of the most talented big men in the country. They return Parker and Wright who both showed flashes of being very good guards. They bring back Ibrihim Thomas who showed himself to be a more than capable big man. This is the kind of core that an up and coming coach would jump at a chance to move forward . It is the type of core that could attract a winning type of candidate.
Additional now is the ideal time for chance because the program will not be set back by the coaching change. Were we to make the change in a year where we had to replace a ton of talent we may be set back another year...another two years. This is a year we could make the kind of change and not have the setback. Our recruiting class this year is nothing incredibly impressive and the guys we are losing can be replaced. This year is as ideal a chance as we may ever get to bring someone in who can get this program to the next level.
I am thankful to Mick for coming in and giving his best effort to get the program off the mat. I am thankful for his increasing the talent level and at least getting us back to mediocrity. But after three straight seasons of mediocrity in the Big East and a lack of development of what is a clearly talented team, I think the evidence is in. The University cannot afford to wallow in mediocrity. This is a program that regularly drew 12,000+ a game for 15 years that is now failing to draw 9000 (despite playing in a much better conference). This is a program that is losing opportunities for exposure. There are still recruits who grew up watching UC as a successful program that they would want to be a part of, but that window is closing by the day. The longer we wait...the longer we sit in mediocrity, the harder it will be to win at the high level this University deserves.
For the sake of the University I grew up loving, for the sake of the University where I earned my degree and for the sake of all the alumni who care about this university it is time to make a change. It is time make the bold statement that the University of Cincinnati will not accept mediocrity... we are a big time program and we are once again ready to live up to that.
Thanks for your time,
Mark Raines, Class of 2007
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
NCAA Tournament Thoughts
Well... this was easily my worst year in projecting the field (something I thought might happen as I evaluated teams this week). I do not think the selection committee did a great job this year. As I have always said to me the most important quality in an NCAA tournament team is a proven ability to beat other tournament teams. Cal, Utah State and UTEP all failed to prove they could that, while Illinois proved they could by beating 4 top 25 RPI teams, 3 of which were away from home. To me that is an NCAA tournament team. My other major issue was Florida getting in over Mississippi State team that beat them on a neutral floor a two days earlier, then beat Vandy, then took UK to OT and really lost on a bad bounce. Now I would have been fine with Mississippi State not getting in, but Florida getting in over them does not make any sense at all. Their resume's are essentially the same, but Mississippi State was better late and again beat them on a neutral floor.
I will say though that no one that missed really has anyone to blame but themselves. Mississippi State did not do enough throughout the year, Illinois had some bad losses, VT had an awful non-conference schedule. In the end I may disagree with the committee but we are not debating teams that would have a shot to win the whole thing... so I am good with how it is.
The biggest issue I had was Duke being treated like the number 1 overall seed. Duke was easily the weakest of the 1 seeds and did not have as good a resume as WVU. Duke was given the weakest 2 seed in their region. They were also given a 4 seed missing their best player. Duke does draw the toughest 8/9 winner (unless Texas suddenly starts playing to their ability), but other than that they were given a great draw.
WVU who had 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1 and was 7-4 on the road vs. Duke who was 5-5 ended being a 2 seed and was put into Kentucky's region making a final four run that much more difficult. Had they put WVU in Duke's region they'd be a favorite to make the final four. The good news for WVU is they may have gotten some favors at the bottom of the region being matched up with New Mexico as the three seed (a team they should beat if New Mexico were to get that far). It seems that the committee felt it was more important to give them the Buffalo/Syracuse locations than to match them with the weakest 1 seed.
Another team I think got jobbed was Ohio State. Why did Ohio State get put in the bracket of the top 1 seed? I guess it is as simple as keeping OSU in St Louis for the the regional finals instead of sending them to Houston...but if you are Ohio State would you rather be in St Louis in a Region with Kansas and Georgetown (probably the best 1 and 3 seeds respectively) or be in Houston with Duke and Baylor as your chief rivals. On top of that the Oklahoma State v Georgia Tech winner is going to be an absolutely rough second round match-up for the Buckeyes. To me they have far and away the toughest path of any of the high seeds to the final four.
Now lets take a look at the first round match-ups I am most looking forward to:
Thursday 12:20, 7 BYU vs. 10 Florida- 7/10 games always tend to be close. I really like this BYU team. Florida has struggled a bunch down the stretch. I do not think they should have made the tournament, that being said they could easily win this game.
Thursday 12:25, 6 Notre Dame vs. 11 Old Dominion- Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams in the country to end the season. Old Dominion won a very competitive Colonial Athletic Association. Four years ago George Mason made an historic final four run from a similar position. Obviously that is a huge unlikelihood, but a Sweet 16 run would not be surprising at all.
Thursday 2:30, 4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State- Really all the 13/4 games have a certain level of intrigue to them this year. I think this is one of the better sets of 13 seeds I can remember in the tournament and the four seeds they have been matched with are not really teams that seem to blow others out. Murray State was absolutely dominant in the Ohio Valley this year (big surprise I know they've been doing it for over 2 decades). Vanderbilt had a great year. They are well coached and very skilled, but I think Murray States quickness could give them trouble. It should be a very interesting matchup and maybe the first big upset of the tournament.
Thursday 4:45, 5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP- I did not pick a single 5/12 upset this year...which will probably prove to be foolish as they happen like clockwork. I think Butler is too good a team for UTEP, but I guess we will see. Anyways the 5/12 games are always worth watching.
Thursday 7:20, 6 Marquette vs. 11 Washington- Marquette is another example of how much respect the Big East got this year. I think Marquette is probably a bit over-seeded. They really did overachieve with the roster they have in place. I think they are better than Washington, but Washington has been hot. I think the winner of this game will likely beat New Mexico and find their way to the sweet 16.
Thursday 7:25, 3 Georgetown vs. 14 Ohio- I think this will probably be a blowout, Georgetown is incredibly dangerous in this tournament. That being said, always look forward to watching the Bobcats.
Thursday 9:45, 6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State- San Diego State is red hot moving into the tournament. I like their chances against Tennessee, but in the end I'm not betting against Bruce Pearl.
Friday 12:25, 6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota- I personally think Xavier is much better than Minnesota. However, I also think Tubby Smith is a very good game to game coach and he will have them ready. I thought Xavier got a nice draw for getting back to the sweet 16, but they have to get the first one.
Friday 12:30, 5 Temple vs. 12 Cornell- The Atlantic 10 is very much featured in the 12:30 games. I thought Temple was under-seeded in the tournament this year. I know Cornell is a trendy pick here but I think Temple is a much more athletic and a generally better team. I personally like the Owls to make the sweet 16.
Friday 2:30, 4 Purdue vs. 13. Siena- It is the second of the very intriguing 4/13 match-ups in this year's tournament. Purdue has looked really bad in their two games against tournament competition without Robby Hummel. They have the talent to win without him, but will they have it together by then? Siena brought back four starters from the team that upset Ohio State last year. They are very good and tournament tested. This will be a really good game.
Friday 4:45, 5 Texas A&M vs. 12. Utah State- I think this is the most likely of the 12/5 upsets. Utah State had been very hot before the tournament. Texas A&M is better and should win, but we have seen bigger upsets in 12/5 games before.
Friday 7:15, 7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Georgia Tech- These are two very talented teams who will give Ohio State a hell of a time in the second round. I will be very anxious to see who wins.
Friday 7:20- 5 Michigan State vs. 12 New Mexico State- I thought New Mexico State was probably seeded to high and it is dumb to bet against Tom Izzo in the Big Dance, but Michigan State has looked very vulnerable and we all know about 5/12.
Friday 9:40- 4 Maryland vs. 13 Houston- The last of the 4/13 match-ups I am very interested in. Houston impressed me in the Conference USA title. Tom Penders I a good coach. Maryland has not been great away from home this year. I think Maryland wins, but it should be a good game.
Friday 9:45- 8 Cal vs. 9 Louisville- The winner of this game is going to be a real threat to Duke. Just from that level of interest I will be paying attention.
Additional Thoughts on the Tournament:
15/16 team that is most likely to keep the game close- Winthrop (they are in the play in game, but screw it I went to school their for a year I'm going with them)
Toughest Draw for a 1-4 seed- Ohio State
Potential Second Round Games to Look Forward to-
Duke vs. UofL/Cal winner
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State/Georgia Tech winner
Georgetown vs. Tennessee
12 seed or lower that could make the sweet 16- Murray State
Will the Big East get two in the final four again? Yes, out of Syracuse, WVU, Georgetown and Villanova two will find their way to the final four.
Outsider most likely to crash the final four- Baylor (and if you do not consider them an outside because they are from a power conference... Temple)
Biggest X factor in the tournament- The health of Arinze Onuaku.
Elite Eight
Kansas
Georgetown
Syracuse
Kansas State
UK
West Virginia
Texas A& M
Baylor
Final Four
Kansas
Syracuse
West Virginia
Baylor
Biggest Game
Kansas vs. Syracuse (the winner will be Champion)
Championship Game
Syracuse over West Virginia (I'm assuming Onauku will be good to go...if not...well I'll be wrong)
I will say though that no one that missed really has anyone to blame but themselves. Mississippi State did not do enough throughout the year, Illinois had some bad losses, VT had an awful non-conference schedule. In the end I may disagree with the committee but we are not debating teams that would have a shot to win the whole thing... so I am good with how it is.
The biggest issue I had was Duke being treated like the number 1 overall seed. Duke was easily the weakest of the 1 seeds and did not have as good a resume as WVU. Duke was given the weakest 2 seed in their region. They were also given a 4 seed missing their best player. Duke does draw the toughest 8/9 winner (unless Texas suddenly starts playing to their ability), but other than that they were given a great draw.
WVU who had 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1 and was 7-4 on the road vs. Duke who was 5-5 ended being a 2 seed and was put into Kentucky's region making a final four run that much more difficult. Had they put WVU in Duke's region they'd be a favorite to make the final four. The good news for WVU is they may have gotten some favors at the bottom of the region being matched up with New Mexico as the three seed (a team they should beat if New Mexico were to get that far). It seems that the committee felt it was more important to give them the Buffalo/Syracuse locations than to match them with the weakest 1 seed.
Another team I think got jobbed was Ohio State. Why did Ohio State get put in the bracket of the top 1 seed? I guess it is as simple as keeping OSU in St Louis for the the regional finals instead of sending them to Houston...but if you are Ohio State would you rather be in St Louis in a Region with Kansas and Georgetown (probably the best 1 and 3 seeds respectively) or be in Houston with Duke and Baylor as your chief rivals. On top of that the Oklahoma State v Georgia Tech winner is going to be an absolutely rough second round match-up for the Buckeyes. To me they have far and away the toughest path of any of the high seeds to the final four.
Now lets take a look at the first round match-ups I am most looking forward to:
Thursday 12:20, 7 BYU vs. 10 Florida- 7/10 games always tend to be close. I really like this BYU team. Florida has struggled a bunch down the stretch. I do not think they should have made the tournament, that being said they could easily win this game.
Thursday 12:25, 6 Notre Dame vs. 11 Old Dominion- Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams in the country to end the season. Old Dominion won a very competitive Colonial Athletic Association. Four years ago George Mason made an historic final four run from a similar position. Obviously that is a huge unlikelihood, but a Sweet 16 run would not be surprising at all.
Thursday 2:30, 4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State- Really all the 13/4 games have a certain level of intrigue to them this year. I think this is one of the better sets of 13 seeds I can remember in the tournament and the four seeds they have been matched with are not really teams that seem to blow others out. Murray State was absolutely dominant in the Ohio Valley this year (big surprise I know they've been doing it for over 2 decades). Vanderbilt had a great year. They are well coached and very skilled, but I think Murray States quickness could give them trouble. It should be a very interesting matchup and maybe the first big upset of the tournament.
Thursday 4:45, 5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP- I did not pick a single 5/12 upset this year...which will probably prove to be foolish as they happen like clockwork. I think Butler is too good a team for UTEP, but I guess we will see. Anyways the 5/12 games are always worth watching.
Thursday 7:20, 6 Marquette vs. 11 Washington- Marquette is another example of how much respect the Big East got this year. I think Marquette is probably a bit over-seeded. They really did overachieve with the roster they have in place. I think they are better than Washington, but Washington has been hot. I think the winner of this game will likely beat New Mexico and find their way to the sweet 16.
Thursday 7:25, 3 Georgetown vs. 14 Ohio- I think this will probably be a blowout, Georgetown is incredibly dangerous in this tournament. That being said, always look forward to watching the Bobcats.
Thursday 9:45, 6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State- San Diego State is red hot moving into the tournament. I like their chances against Tennessee, but in the end I'm not betting against Bruce Pearl.
Friday 12:25, 6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota- I personally think Xavier is much better than Minnesota. However, I also think Tubby Smith is a very good game to game coach and he will have them ready. I thought Xavier got a nice draw for getting back to the sweet 16, but they have to get the first one.
Friday 12:30, 5 Temple vs. 12 Cornell- The Atlantic 10 is very much featured in the 12:30 games. I thought Temple was under-seeded in the tournament this year. I know Cornell is a trendy pick here but I think Temple is a much more athletic and a generally better team. I personally like the Owls to make the sweet 16.
Friday 2:30, 4 Purdue vs. 13. Siena- It is the second of the very intriguing 4/13 match-ups in this year's tournament. Purdue has looked really bad in their two games against tournament competition without Robby Hummel. They have the talent to win without him, but will they have it together by then? Siena brought back four starters from the team that upset Ohio State last year. They are very good and tournament tested. This will be a really good game.
Friday 4:45, 5 Texas A&M vs. 12. Utah State- I think this is the most likely of the 12/5 upsets. Utah State had been very hot before the tournament. Texas A&M is better and should win, but we have seen bigger upsets in 12/5 games before.
Friday 7:15, 7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Georgia Tech- These are two very talented teams who will give Ohio State a hell of a time in the second round. I will be very anxious to see who wins.
Friday 7:20- 5 Michigan State vs. 12 New Mexico State- I thought New Mexico State was probably seeded to high and it is dumb to bet against Tom Izzo in the Big Dance, but Michigan State has looked very vulnerable and we all know about 5/12.
Friday 9:40- 4 Maryland vs. 13 Houston- The last of the 4/13 match-ups I am very interested in. Houston impressed me in the Conference USA title. Tom Penders I a good coach. Maryland has not been great away from home this year. I think Maryland wins, but it should be a good game.
Friday 9:45- 8 Cal vs. 9 Louisville- The winner of this game is going to be a real threat to Duke. Just from that level of interest I will be paying attention.
Additional Thoughts on the Tournament:
15/16 team that is most likely to keep the game close- Winthrop (they are in the play in game, but screw it I went to school their for a year I'm going with them)
Toughest Draw for a 1-4 seed- Ohio State
Potential Second Round Games to Look Forward to-
Duke vs. UofL/Cal winner
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State/Georgia Tech winner
Georgetown vs. Tennessee
12 seed or lower that could make the sweet 16- Murray State
Will the Big East get two in the final four again? Yes, out of Syracuse, WVU, Georgetown and Villanova two will find their way to the final four.
Outsider most likely to crash the final four- Baylor (and if you do not consider them an outside because they are from a power conference... Temple)
Biggest X factor in the tournament- The health of Arinze Onuaku.
Elite Eight
Kansas
Georgetown
Syracuse
Kansas State
UK
West Virginia
Texas A& M
Baylor
Final Four
Kansas
Syracuse
West Virginia
Baylor
Biggest Game
Kansas vs. Syracuse (the winner will be Champion)
Championship Game
Syracuse over West Virginia (I'm assuming Onauku will be good to go...if not...well I'll be wrong)
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Final Bracket Selection Sunday
It's time to take a look at my final bracket which unfortunately I have to put out before all the games have been played. As of right now my four 1 seeds are (in this order):
Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
WVU
The top three will stay exactly as is no matter what happens today. WVU will certainly be the 4th 1 seed if Duke loses, but I think they should be if Duke wins. WVU has 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1. WVU is 7-4 in true road games, Duke is 5-5. Their numbers against the top 50 are similar but again WVU's games against the top 50 came against better teams than Duke's. To me WVU clearly has the strong resume.
My number 2 seeds are as follows (in this order):
Duke
Ohio State
Kansas State
Villanova
There is a big dropoff between Kansas State and Villanova. There are a bunch of teams with very similar resumes Villanova that could very well get the last 2 seed instead. The forth 2 seed will be a difficult decision (Pitt would be a likely candidate to take their spot).
I will say this has been a very difficult year to find tournament caliber at large teams. I have Minnesota and Illinois in where I have seen many of them either on the edge or out. These teams actually have quality wins over tournament teams...something really lacking from the resumes of UTEP, Cal, Mississippi State and Utah State... and something Florida, VT, and Seton Hall do not have to that level. Judging by who they beat I don't really understand how there is any question that Illinois and Minnesota should be in over all of those teams. (but if I was shown to be wrong...well I wouldn't be shocked)
So that being said I have three spots open... and they will come down to these eight teams:
Cal
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Utah State
Seton Hall
Florida
William and Mary
UTEP
Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long. Their best wins are over Memphis and UAB... to me that is not an NCAA tournament team. I would not be surprised if I am wrong. I would not be surprised if they got in, but to me they have not demonstrated they are an NCAA team.
I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams. William and Mary has true road wins over Wake Forest and Minnesota (in their limited opportunities). That is strong. In a normal year they would not stand a chance. I think it would be cool if they were rewarded over mediocre teams like Cal and Mississippi State. Cal has 1 win over a tournament team this year. Mississippi State has not been much better.
I feel like I could be wrong on any of my last three and still be fine with the job the committee did. If they do not put Minnesota or Illinois in the tournament I think they will be going against their stated criteria of playing and beating tournament teams. That's why I am fairly confident those teams will get in.
Anyways..this is the least sure I have ever been when predicting the bracket and it is definitely because of the relative weakness at the end of the bracket.
A few procedural things before I show my final bracket. I had to swap Texas and Florida State on the S curve so that Texas could not draw Kansas in the second round and so that Florida State would not play Clemson in round 1. I swapped Texas A&M and Wake Forest to avoid multiple bracket issues. In my bracket today ND was the last 9 seed and Georgia Tech was the top 10 seed. I swapped them to avoid ND getting WVU in the second round and Georgia Tech drawing Duke in round 2. Lastly I swapped Pitt and New Mexico to avoid a Pitt/Villanova sweet 16 match-up. This is not a mandatory change by bracketing rules, but the committee does its best to avoid having high seeds from the same conference on the same side of a region. It was an easy switch so I made it.
That being said here is my final bracket (again Conference Champions in BOLD):
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Purdue
13. Houston
5. Tennessee
12. Murray State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Gonzaga
10. Illinois
3. New Mexico
14. Montana
6. Richmond
11. Illinois
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. West Virginia
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Georgia Tech
4. Temple
13. Ohio
5. Michigan State
12. Virginia Tech
2. Duke
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State
5. BYU
12. Mississippi State
2. Ohio State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. Georgetown
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Cal
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Butler
13. Siena
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Kansas State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Washington
Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
WVU
The top three will stay exactly as is no matter what happens today. WVU will certainly be the 4th 1 seed if Duke loses, but I think they should be if Duke wins. WVU has 5 top 25 RPI wins to Duke's 1. WVU is 7-4 in true road games, Duke is 5-5. Their numbers against the top 50 are similar but again WVU's games against the top 50 came against better teams than Duke's. To me WVU clearly has the strong resume.
My number 2 seeds are as follows (in this order):
Duke
Ohio State
Kansas State
Villanova
There is a big dropoff between Kansas State and Villanova. There are a bunch of teams with very similar resumes Villanova that could very well get the last 2 seed instead. The forth 2 seed will be a difficult decision (Pitt would be a likely candidate to take their spot).
I will say this has been a very difficult year to find tournament caliber at large teams. I have Minnesota and Illinois in where I have seen many of them either on the edge or out. These teams actually have quality wins over tournament teams...something really lacking from the resumes of UTEP, Cal, Mississippi State and Utah State... and something Florida, VT, and Seton Hall do not have to that level. Judging by who they beat I don't really understand how there is any question that Illinois and Minnesota should be in over all of those teams. (but if I was shown to be wrong...well I wouldn't be shocked)
So that being said I have three spots open... and they will come down to these eight teams:
Cal
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Utah State
Seton Hall
Florida
William and Mary
UTEP
Yes I have UTEP at the bottom of that list. UTEP did not beat a tournament team all season long. Their best wins are over Memphis and UAB... to me that is not an NCAA tournament team. I would not be surprised if I am wrong. I would not be surprised if they got in, but to me they have not demonstrated they are an NCAA team.
I will tell you right now... I will be very proud of the committee if they reward Seton Hall and William and Mary over Cal and Mississippi State. Seton Hall's losses nearly all came against top notch teams and has 4 wins over tournament teams. William and Mary has true road wins over Wake Forest and Minnesota (in their limited opportunities). That is strong. In a normal year they would not stand a chance. I think it would be cool if they were rewarded over mediocre teams like Cal and Mississippi State. Cal has 1 win over a tournament team this year. Mississippi State has not been much better.
I feel like I could be wrong on any of my last three and still be fine with the job the committee did. If they do not put Minnesota or Illinois in the tournament I think they will be going against their stated criteria of playing and beating tournament teams. That's why I am fairly confident those teams will get in.
Anyways..this is the least sure I have ever been when predicting the bracket and it is definitely because of the relative weakness at the end of the bracket.
A few procedural things before I show my final bracket. I had to swap Texas and Florida State on the S curve so that Texas could not draw Kansas in the second round and so that Florida State would not play Clemson in round 1. I swapped Texas A&M and Wake Forest to avoid multiple bracket issues. In my bracket today ND was the last 9 seed and Georgia Tech was the top 10 seed. I swapped them to avoid ND getting WVU in the second round and Georgia Tech drawing Duke in round 2. Lastly I swapped Pitt and New Mexico to avoid a Pitt/Villanova sweet 16 match-up. This is not a mandatory change by bracketing rules, but the committee does its best to avoid having high seeds from the same conference on the same side of a region. It was an easy switch so I made it.
That being said here is my final bracket (again Conference Champions in BOLD):
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Purdue
13. Houston
5. Tennessee
12. Murray State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Gonzaga
10. Illinois
3. New Mexico
14. Montana
6. Richmond
11. Illinois
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. West Virginia
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Georgia Tech
4. Temple
13. Ohio
5. Michigan State
12. Virginia Tech
2. Duke
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State
5. BYU
12. Mississippi State
2. Ohio State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. Georgetown
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Cal
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Butler
13. Siena
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Kansas State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Washington
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Championship Saturday 2:30 Bracket
As we look at my second bracket things are really starting to take shape. The list of teams I had on the bubble has been dramatically reduced. I have moved Memphis, UAB, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Dayton and St Louis to the out list...none of those teams are going to be making the NCAA tournament. I have added Illinois, Georgia Tech and San Diego State to LOCK status. I think they are in the NCAA tournament. Also...
Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:
Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.
I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.
Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.
A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.
Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Butler
13. Murray State
5. Georgetown
12. Utah State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Richmond
10. Illinois
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Gonzaga
11. Cal
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame
4. Temple
13. Akron
5. Michigan State
12. Florida
2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. Siena
5. BYU
12. Washington
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Minnesota
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Tennessee
13. Houston
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech
Here are the teams I now have in the running for the remaining AT-Large bids:
Minnesota
Cal
Virginia Tech
Florida
Washington
UTEP
Utah State (who can get in tonight with a win... a loss lowers the number of bubble spots available to 4)
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
Seton Hall
With UTEP losing that lowers the number of at large Bids by one and puts them squarely on the bubble. As of right now there are 5 spots available for those 10 teams. One of those spots will be taken the winner of Cal/Washington today in the PAC Ten title. I think Minnesota and Cal are in pretty good shape... I think Florida, VT and Washington (should they lose to Cal) are the teams that should be most worried. I thought Virginia Tech was in yesterday, but a loss to the 12 seed in the ACC tournament...a lack of really good wins, and a dreadful non-conference schedule really won't be looked upon kindly by the committee.
I also think Florida's resume is seemingly a carbon copy of Seton Hall's resume. Now I don't think Seton Hall is getting in and it has made me really start looking hard at Florida. Florida has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They have an awful loss to South Alabama and a bad loss to Georgia. Florida is only 3-8 against the RPI top 50 (by comparison Seton Hall is 4-9). Seton Hall's worst loss is South Florida (71 in the RPI). The more I look at Florida...the more they do not strike me as an NCAA tournament team. I think it's very likely when I do my final bracket they will be out in favor of a UTEP or Rhode Island... heck right now it is getting tough to even justify having them above Seton Hall.
Cal, Washington, and Utah State all can get the automatic birth with a win. Rhode Island and Mississippi State still can add to their resume (as can Minnesota). So keep that in mind that those teams could definitely play their way in.
A few procedural things to get to... I swapped Florida State and Texas who were next to each other on the S curve because Texas cannot play Kansas in the second round and Florida State cannot meet Clemson in round 1. I solved the same problem for Wake Forest and Texas A&M by swapping them. Other than that... Those were the only procedural bumps I had to make. Kansas is the number one overall seed, but they Kentucky gets the winner of the play in game simply due to playing their first round games at a Friday/Sunday sight.
Anyways...here is look number 2 at the bracket:
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Winthrop
8. Marquette
9. Florida State
4. Butler
13. Murray State
5. Georgetown
12. Utah State
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Richmond
10. Illinois
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Gonzaga
11. Cal
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Vermont
8. UNLV
9. Notre Dame
4. Temple
13. Akron
5. Michigan State
12. Florida
2. West Virginia
15. East Tennessee State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Oklahoma State
11. Old Dominion
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. Missouri
9. St Mary's
4. Baylor
13. Siena
5. BYU
12. Washington
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Wake Forest
10. San Diego State
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Maryland
11. Minnesota
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Clemson
9. Texas
4. Tennessee
13. Houston
5. Xavier
12. Cornell
2. Ohio State
15. Morgan State
7. Northern Iowa
10. Louisville
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Wisconsin
11. Virginia Tech
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Bearcatmark's First Mock Bracket
For the purpose of this bracket I have assumed the regular season Conference Champion is going to win every conference that has not been decided. Now this is obviously not likely to be the case, but it gives me UTEP and Cal as automatic birth teams and not last four in bubble status... If those teams don't win their conference they currently sit just above Minnesota and Memphis who are my last two teams in.
With their win over Seton Hall yesterday I have moved Notre Dame to Lock Status. I made a few adjustments to avoid same conference teams playing in the first two rounds. I switched Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, Illinois and San Diego State,Virginia Tech and St Mary's, Clemson and UNLV, Texas and Richmond, as well as Minnesota and Memphis (yes I had to do a ton of procedure bumping... i hope my final brackets don't come out like this.)
My Last Four In Are:
UTEP
Cal
Minnesota
Memphis
My First Four Out Are
Seton Hall (they are going to have to get really lucky to get in... as in everyone behind them falters and teams like Memphis/Minnesota lose early in their conference tournaments)
Arizona State
Washington
Ole Miss
(I actually have Utah State above Ole Miss, but I have them with an Automatic Birth at this point. Were they to lose in the conference finals they'd probably stand a decent shot at a bid)
My other 6 teams with a shot still go in this order at this time:
Cincinnati (I am getting more and more confident that a win tonight gets them on the edge...lets start rooting for everyone above to falter early in their conference tournaments)
St Louis
Dayton
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
UAB
All teams that have clinched their conference title are in bold.
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Wintrhop
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
4. BYU
13. Utah State
5. Butler
12. Cornell
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Texas
10. Florida
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Georgetown
11. San Diego State
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Boston U
8. Northern Iowa
9. St Mary's
4. Temple
13. Kent State
5. Michigan State
12. Old Dominion
2. Ohio State
15. East Tennessee State
7. Wake Forest
10. Louisivlle
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Maryland
11. Cal
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. UNLV
9. Florida State
4. Tennessee
13. Siena
5. Baylor
12. Minnesota
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Richmond
10. Notre Dame
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Gonzaga
11. Illinois
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Missouri
9. Virginia Tech
4. Wisconsin
13. Murray State
5. Xavier
12. Memphis
2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Oklahoma State
11. UTEP
With their win over Seton Hall yesterday I have moved Notre Dame to Lock Status. I made a few adjustments to avoid same conference teams playing in the first two rounds. I switched Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, Illinois and San Diego State,Virginia Tech and St Mary's, Clemson and UNLV, Texas and Richmond, as well as Minnesota and Memphis (yes I had to do a ton of procedure bumping... i hope my final brackets don't come out like this.)
My Last Four In Are:
UTEP
Cal
Minnesota
Memphis
My First Four Out Are
Seton Hall (they are going to have to get really lucky to get in... as in everyone behind them falters and teams like Memphis/Minnesota lose early in their conference tournaments)
Arizona State
Washington
Ole Miss
(I actually have Utah State above Ole Miss, but I have them with an Automatic Birth at this point. Were they to lose in the conference finals they'd probably stand a decent shot at a bid)
My other 6 teams with a shot still go in this order at this time:
Cincinnati (I am getting more and more confident that a win tonight gets them on the edge...lets start rooting for everyone above to falter early in their conference tournaments)
St Louis
Dayton
Rhode Island
Mississippi State
UAB
All teams that have clinched their conference title are in bold.
Midwest Regional (St Louis)
1. Kansas
16. Wintrhop
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
4. BYU
13. Utah State
5. Butler
12. Cornell
2. Villanova
15. North Texas
7. Texas
10. Florida
3. Purdue
14. Montana
6. Georgetown
11. San Diego State
West Regional (Salt Lake City)
1. Duke
16. Boston U
8. Northern Iowa
9. St Mary's
4. Temple
13. Kent State
5. Michigan State
12. Old Dominion
2. Ohio State
15. East Tennessee State
7. Wake Forest
10. Louisivlle
3. Vanderbilt
14. Oakland
6. Maryland
11. Cal
South Regional (Houston)
1. Syracuse
16. Lehigh/Jackson State (Play in Game)
8. UNLV
9. Florida State
4. Tennessee
13. Siena
5. Baylor
12. Minnesota
2. Kansas State
15. UCSB
7. Richmond
10. Notre Dame
3. Pitt
14. Sam Houston State
6. Gonzaga
11. Illinois
East Regional (Syracuse)
1. Kentucky
16. Robert Morris
8. Missouri
9. Virginia Tech
4. Wisconsin
13. Murray State
5. Xavier
12. Memphis
2. West Virginia
15. Morgan State
7. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
3. New Mexico
14. Wofford
6. Oklahoma State
11. UTEP
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Championship Week Bubble Look
Time to take my second major look at the bubble. St Mary's eliminated all doubt with their route of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament finals. They now have an automatic birth and have lowered the number of bubble spots by one. In good news for bubble teams Butler and Northern Iowa won their conference tournaments. Those teams were getting in to the big dance either way and a loss would have lowered the spots for potential bubble teams. Old Dominion and Cornell also earned automatic bids...neither were probably serious bubble teams, but they are no longer in any bubble discussion.
From last week I have moved 6 teams from on the bubble to in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens from here forward. I have also eliminated four teams from bubble discussion (what you will notice about all those teams is their seasons are over and they have no way to add to their resume). I've added some teams to the bubble discussion that I missed on my first quick look through last week. Now that I have had more time to look things over and evaluate this is a far better look.
As of right now my cutoff is Minnesota (of course that assumes UTEP wins CUSA and Cal wins the Pac Ten, Xavier/Temple/Richmond win the A10, and New Mexico/UNLV/BYU win the Mountain West...otherwise the bubble certainly shrinks.
Also it is important to note that some of the teams I have eliminated may currently have and may finish with better resume's than some of the teams I have in the discussion and on the bubble. The reason teams that may be below them are still on the bubble is that those teams on the bubble have opportunities to improve their resume. I may put out my first bracket today, but I'll probably wait until later in the week.
Teams that have moved from bubble to in:
Clemson- Clemson has played themselves into tournament lock status. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 vs. RPI 26-50. They have beaten Butler and Maryland, swept Florida State and taken down GT. All that plus finishing over .500 in the ACC...they are in.
UNLV- The Rebels will be in the NCAA tournament. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. With a stronger bubble they may be close to the edge, but not this year. They will be dancing.
Louisville- The second win over Syracuse was just what the doctor ordered to get Louisville into Lock Status. At this point they are just playing for seed (and given the nature of the Big East tournament depending on how they do there is a huge range of where they could be seeded). The Cardinals are now 2-5 against the RPI top 25, but both of those wins came against number 1 seed lock Syracuse. Now Louisville's issue is those two victories are their only top 50 wins...and in another year that could be a huge issue...but at this point... with them getting 11 wins in the number 1 RPI conference I cannot see the Cardinals getting left out.
Marquette- I think the Golden Eagles moved to lock status with their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette finished Big East play with 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 1-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville. Marquette has two unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Florida State- By beating Miami and Wake Forest last week Florida State has played their way into the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 10-6. They have four top 50 victories...sweeping bubble team Georgia Tech and getting wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech- I hate the fact that I am saying this but Virginia Tech is a lock at this point. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. Still the Hokies will get in (and with the weakness of the bubble probably should get in), because they went 10-6 in ACC play. And though the Hokies are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 they are 3-1 against RPI 26-50 beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and on the road against fellow bubble team GT.
The Bubble As of Noon- Wednesday
Notre Dame- Sweeping UCONN and Marquette last week probably put the Fighting Irish in the dance. Notre Dame finished the regular season by winning four straight games three of which were against teams that will be dancing in Marquette, Pitt, and Georgetown. Notre Dame also has a great win over West Virginia. Their 3-2 record against the RPI top 25 is going to look really good on selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech hurt themselves by not getting to .500 in ACC play, but despite that they could still find themselves in the field. To their credit the Yellow Jackets have 4 top 50 wins which include a win over possible #1 seed Duke, and wins over NCAA tournament teams Siena, Clemson and Wake Forest. Their opening round game against fading North Carolina probably is a must win game. They can secure a win by beating Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, but even a close loss will likely be good enough.
Florida- Florida could have moved to lock status with a win over Kentucky (or even Vandy) last week. As it is they are in relatively good shape simply because of the other teams behind them not having much to celebrate. To date Florida is only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). Looking at the SEC tournament Florida at the very least needs to make the SEC semi finals. Making the semis will keep them in the discussion...if they can manage to make the finals they'll be dancing for sure.
Illinois- Illinois could end up giving the committee headaches this Sunday. They sit at 75 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-4 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Very few teams manage to get 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Illinois draws Wisconsin one more time in their first Big Ten tournament game... a win will get the Illini in the field. A loss and they will be teetering on the edge.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. They won the games they needed to last week to keep themselves in position. They likely will need two wins in the Conference tournament to get in...They have a first round match-up with Colorado State which they cannot afford to lose and then get another shot at New Mexico. A win over New Mexico should get them in the field.
UTEP- One of three Conference USA teams hoping to find a way in the tournament. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having won the outright conference championship. They are only 3-1 against the RPI top 50 sweeping UAB and beating Memphis. They have run off 14 straight wins which will really help them. I think at this point UTEP will probably be dancing so long as they make the finals of the CUSA tournament... but it strikes me that their only big wins are over teams that could very likely not be dancing.
Seton Hall- In getting to .500 in conference play Seton Hall did exactly what they needed to last week. They held on for a big win against Providence last night and now may have a chance to play their way into the field against Notre Dame. A win puts Seton Hall firmly on the bubble (I don't think they can get in with a loss). If they can manage to follow that up with a victory over Pitt they will probably be dancing. Seton Hall is only 3-8 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. Of their losses 7 came against teams in the RPI top 15.
Cal- For the record Cal still has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 20 which would make them the highest RPI team ever left out if they do not make it(Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I do not think they deserve it Their resume simply does not hold up. The PAC Ten SHOULD be a one bid league and I really hope the selection committee does their job in scrutinizing it. If teams from the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, Mountain West...etc had these resume's they would not be in the discussion. They are ahead of Washington and Arizona State (who both have two wins over the RPI top 50) because they finished alone in first place.
Minnesota- And to think...last week I did not think there was as shot Minnesota would be dancing. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and those are three very high quality wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). The thrashing they received from Michigan looks bad, but they managed to recover and get to .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Penn State is a must...then they'll have a shot to really impress by beating Michigan State.
Memphis- They have two top 50 wins right now... both against a UAB team that will almost assuredly not be dancing without winning the CUSA tournament. Could Memphis getting a third win over UAB and making the finals of the Conference USA tournament be enough? I personally doubt it, but if none of the other bubble teams step up and play their way in it could be a possibility.
Ole Miss- Early season wins continue to keep the Rebels in the discussion, but they have to do something in the SEC tournament. The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They did get to 9-7 in the SEC to keep their at-large hopes alive. They have a first round bye and then must win their first conference tournament game. A win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament could earn them a bid... an additional win over Kentucky will put them firmly in.
St Louis- St Louis managed to get a split in the Temple/Dayton stretch last week to keep their slim hopes alive. They are only 83 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton(twice), and Rhode Island, St Louis is 4-3 against the RPI top 50. They finished alone in 4th in a particularly strong A10 going 11-5. They still may need to win the conference tournament to go dancing, but it's possible getting two more top 50 wins by beating Rhode Island and Temple in their first two tournament games could earn them an at large bid.
Arizona State- Arizona State won 6 of their last 7 if the very weak PAC Ten. Arizona State only has 1 top 50 win (beating SD State). They have another win over a Washington team that currently is 51 in the RPI. If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Washington- Finished the season by winning 4 straight to keep their hopes alive. They have two top 50 RPI wins both at home against Texas A&M and Cal... If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU and a solid win over Wichita State to get them to 2-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). That may not be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Dayton- Dayton seemingly dealt themselves a deathblow last week losing to Richmond and Saint Louis to fall to .500 in the A10. Dayton is 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Old Dominion. It is going to take a pretty exceptional Atlantic Ten tournament to get the committee's attention. They got the win they needed to open the A10 tournament and now likely must beat Xavier and Richmond to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid.
Mississippi State- At 1-4 against the RPI top 50 Mississippi State probably is a fringe candidate at best at this point. Their sweep of Ole Miss does not carry much weight at this point. Their best victory was early in the season over Old Dominion. Mississippi State is still on the board because wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to reach the SEC finals would likely be enough to earn them a bid. They have not really done anything to show that is possible, but the point is their slims hopes are still alive (and remember they ended up winning the conference tournament last year to force their way in).
Rhode Island- Rhode Isalnd, like Dayton...seemingly played their way out last week. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50 (0-4 against the top 25) beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. The loss to Umass on Saturday was their second bad loss (also have a loss to St Bonaventure). Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. Rhode Island gets St Louis in a do or die game in the A10 quarterfinals and then must find a way to beat Temple to have a shot at an at-large bid.
UAB- The loss to UTEP all but eliminated UAB from an at-large bid. They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-5 against the RPI top 50. I don't know that beating Memphis and earning a trip to the Conference USA finals would even be enough at this point. They probably need to win the conference tournament.
Cincinnati- Getting smacked around by Georgetown for all purposes eliminated Cincinnati from the discussion, but I leave them here because the Big East tournament does offer a unique opportunity for a run. The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats survived against Rutgers to advance in the tournament. Advancing to the finals will be necessary for the Bearcats to earn a bid... a trip to the finals would likely give the Bearcats victories over Louisville, WVU and Pitt...all of a sudden that would be a pretty interesting resume. (Hey a man can dream)
Eliminated From Consideration
UCONN- Wow do things change in a week. UCONN had won 4 in a row and then suffered a close lose to Louisville. The came into last week feeling reasonably good all things considered. Three stink bombs later (losses to ND, South Florida, and St Johns) and UCONN has absolutely no shot to be a tournament team.
South Florida- The managed to get to .500 in Big East play and have 3 top 50 wins to their credit (going 3-4 against the RPI top 50) beating Pitt and Kent State at home...the Georgetown on the road. However, they needed to beat Georgetown today and fell short. A nice year for South Florida, but ultimately they will not be dancing.
Wichita State- A trip to the finals of the Conference Tournament finals of the Missouri Valley just is not going to be enough for Greg Marshall's kids. They did manage to go 9-5 against the RPI top 100, but only 1 of those wins was against the RPI top 50 (beating conference champion Northern Iowa in the Regularl season). A good season, but ultimately not enough.
Charlotte- They once sat in great shape, but just closed the season losing 7 of 8 games including a first round A10 loss to Umass. Charlotte is not going to be dancing.
From last week I have moved 6 teams from on the bubble to in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens from here forward. I have also eliminated four teams from bubble discussion (what you will notice about all those teams is their seasons are over and they have no way to add to their resume). I've added some teams to the bubble discussion that I missed on my first quick look through last week. Now that I have had more time to look things over and evaluate this is a far better look.
As of right now my cutoff is Minnesota (of course that assumes UTEP wins CUSA and Cal wins the Pac Ten, Xavier/Temple/Richmond win the A10, and New Mexico/UNLV/BYU win the Mountain West...otherwise the bubble certainly shrinks.
Also it is important to note that some of the teams I have eliminated may currently have and may finish with better resume's than some of the teams I have in the discussion and on the bubble. The reason teams that may be below them are still on the bubble is that those teams on the bubble have opportunities to improve their resume. I may put out my first bracket today, but I'll probably wait until later in the week.
Teams that have moved from bubble to in:
Clemson- Clemson has played themselves into tournament lock status. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 25 and 3-3 vs. RPI 26-50. They have beaten Butler and Maryland, swept Florida State and taken down GT. All that plus finishing over .500 in the ACC...they are in.
UNLV- The Rebels will be in the NCAA tournament. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. With a stronger bubble they may be close to the edge, but not this year. They will be dancing.
Louisville- The second win over Syracuse was just what the doctor ordered to get Louisville into Lock Status. At this point they are just playing for seed (and given the nature of the Big East tournament depending on how they do there is a huge range of where they could be seeded). The Cardinals are now 2-5 against the RPI top 25, but both of those wins came against number 1 seed lock Syracuse. Now Louisville's issue is those two victories are their only top 50 wins...and in another year that could be a huge issue...but at this point... with them getting 11 wins in the number 1 RPI conference I cannot see the Cardinals getting left out.
Marquette- I think the Golden Eagles moved to lock status with their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette finished Big East play with 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 1-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville. Marquette has two unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Florida State- By beating Miami and Wake Forest last week Florida State has played their way into the NCAA tournament. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 10-6. They have four top 50 victories...sweeping bubble team Georgia Tech and getting wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech- I hate the fact that I am saying this but Virginia Tech is a lock at this point. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. Still the Hokies will get in (and with the weakness of the bubble probably should get in), because they went 10-6 in ACC play. And though the Hokies are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 they are 3-1 against RPI 26-50 beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and on the road against fellow bubble team GT.
The Bubble As of Noon- Wednesday
Notre Dame- Sweeping UCONN and Marquette last week probably put the Fighting Irish in the dance. Notre Dame finished the regular season by winning four straight games three of which were against teams that will be dancing in Marquette, Pitt, and Georgetown. Notre Dame also has a great win over West Virginia. Their 3-2 record against the RPI top 25 is going to look really good on selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech- Georgia Tech hurt themselves by not getting to .500 in ACC play, but despite that they could still find themselves in the field. To their credit the Yellow Jackets have 4 top 50 wins which include a win over possible #1 seed Duke, and wins over NCAA tournament teams Siena, Clemson and Wake Forest. Their opening round game against fading North Carolina probably is a must win game. They can secure a win by beating Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, but even a close loss will likely be good enough.
Florida- Florida could have moved to lock status with a win over Kentucky (or even Vandy) last week. As it is they are in relatively good shape simply because of the other teams behind them not having much to celebrate. To date Florida is only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). Looking at the SEC tournament Florida at the very least needs to make the SEC semi finals. Making the semis will keep them in the discussion...if they can manage to make the finals they'll be dancing for sure.
Illinois- Illinois could end up giving the committee headaches this Sunday. They sit at 75 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-4 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Very few teams manage to get 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Illinois draws Wisconsin one more time in their first Big Ten tournament game... a win will get the Illini in the field. A loss and they will be teetering on the edge.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. They won the games they needed to last week to keep themselves in position. They likely will need two wins in the Conference tournament to get in...They have a first round match-up with Colorado State which they cannot afford to lose and then get another shot at New Mexico. A win over New Mexico should get them in the field.
UTEP- One of three Conference USA teams hoping to find a way in the tournament. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having won the outright conference championship. They are only 3-1 against the RPI top 50 sweeping UAB and beating Memphis. They have run off 14 straight wins which will really help them. I think at this point UTEP will probably be dancing so long as they make the finals of the CUSA tournament... but it strikes me that their only big wins are over teams that could very likely not be dancing.
Seton Hall- In getting to .500 in conference play Seton Hall did exactly what they needed to last week. They held on for a big win against Providence last night and now may have a chance to play their way into the field against Notre Dame. A win puts Seton Hall firmly on the bubble (I don't think they can get in with a loss). If they can manage to follow that up with a victory over Pitt they will probably be dancing. Seton Hall is only 3-8 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. Of their losses 7 came against teams in the RPI top 15.
Cal- For the record Cal still has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 20 which would make them the highest RPI team ever left out if they do not make it(Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I do not think they deserve it Their resume simply does not hold up. The PAC Ten SHOULD be a one bid league and I really hope the selection committee does their job in scrutinizing it. If teams from the Atlantic Ten, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, Mountain West...etc had these resume's they would not be in the discussion. They are ahead of Washington and Arizona State (who both have two wins over the RPI top 50) because they finished alone in first place.
Minnesota- And to think...last week I did not think there was as shot Minnesota would be dancing. They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and those are three very high quality wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). The thrashing they received from Michigan looks bad, but they managed to recover and get to .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Penn State is a must...then they'll have a shot to really impress by beating Michigan State.
Memphis- They have two top 50 wins right now... both against a UAB team that will almost assuredly not be dancing without winning the CUSA tournament. Could Memphis getting a third win over UAB and making the finals of the Conference USA tournament be enough? I personally doubt it, but if none of the other bubble teams step up and play their way in it could be a possibility.
Ole Miss- Early season wins continue to keep the Rebels in the discussion, but they have to do something in the SEC tournament. The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-0 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They did get to 9-7 in the SEC to keep their at-large hopes alive. They have a first round bye and then must win their first conference tournament game. A win over Tennessee in the SEC tournament could earn them a bid... an additional win over Kentucky will put them firmly in.
St Louis- St Louis managed to get a split in the Temple/Dayton stretch last week to keep their slim hopes alive. They are only 83 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton(twice), and Rhode Island, St Louis is 4-3 against the RPI top 50. They finished alone in 4th in a particularly strong A10 going 11-5. They still may need to win the conference tournament to go dancing, but it's possible getting two more top 50 wins by beating Rhode Island and Temple in their first two tournament games could earn them an at large bid.
Arizona State- Arizona State won 6 of their last 7 if the very weak PAC Ten. Arizona State only has 1 top 50 win (beating SD State). They have another win over a Washington team that currently is 51 in the RPI. If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Washington- Finished the season by winning 4 straight to keep their hopes alive. They have two top 50 RPI wins both at home against Texas A&M and Cal... If they can make the PAC Ten finals and it is Cal that beats them they could make the tournament. But they have a very weak resume overall.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU and a solid win over Wichita State to get them to 2-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). That may not be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Dayton- Dayton seemingly dealt themselves a deathblow last week losing to Richmond and Saint Louis to fall to .500 in the A10. Dayton is 1-6 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Old Dominion. It is going to take a pretty exceptional Atlantic Ten tournament to get the committee's attention. They got the win they needed to open the A10 tournament and now likely must beat Xavier and Richmond to give themselves a chance at an at-large bid.
Mississippi State- At 1-4 against the RPI top 50 Mississippi State probably is a fringe candidate at best at this point. Their sweep of Ole Miss does not carry much weight at this point. Their best victory was early in the season over Old Dominion. Mississippi State is still on the board because wins over Florida and Vanderbilt to reach the SEC finals would likely be enough to earn them a bid. They have not really done anything to show that is possible, but the point is their slims hopes are still alive (and remember they ended up winning the conference tournament last year to force their way in).
Rhode Island- Rhode Isalnd, like Dayton...seemingly played their way out last week. They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50 (0-4 against the top 25) beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. The loss to Umass on Saturday was their second bad loss (also have a loss to St Bonaventure). Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. Rhode Island gets St Louis in a do or die game in the A10 quarterfinals and then must find a way to beat Temple to have a shot at an at-large bid.
UAB- The loss to UTEP all but eliminated UAB from an at-large bid. They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-5 against the RPI top 50. I don't know that beating Memphis and earning a trip to the Conference USA finals would even be enough at this point. They probably need to win the conference tournament.
Cincinnati- Getting smacked around by Georgetown for all purposes eliminated Cincinnati from the discussion, but I leave them here because the Big East tournament does offer a unique opportunity for a run. The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 2-9 against the RPI top 50. Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats survived against Rutgers to advance in the tournament. Advancing to the finals will be necessary for the Bearcats to earn a bid... a trip to the finals would likely give the Bearcats victories over Louisville, WVU and Pitt...all of a sudden that would be a pretty interesting resume. (Hey a man can dream)
Eliminated From Consideration
UCONN- Wow do things change in a week. UCONN had won 4 in a row and then suffered a close lose to Louisville. The came into last week feeling reasonably good all things considered. Three stink bombs later (losses to ND, South Florida, and St Johns) and UCONN has absolutely no shot to be a tournament team.
South Florida- The managed to get to .500 in Big East play and have 3 top 50 wins to their credit (going 3-4 against the RPI top 50) beating Pitt and Kent State at home...the Georgetown on the road. However, they needed to beat Georgetown today and fell short. A nice year for South Florida, but ultimately they will not be dancing.
Wichita State- A trip to the finals of the Conference Tournament finals of the Missouri Valley just is not going to be enough for Greg Marshall's kids. They did manage to go 9-5 against the RPI top 100, but only 1 of those wins was against the RPI top 50 (beating conference champion Northern Iowa in the Regularl season). A good season, but ultimately not enough.
Charlotte- They once sat in great shape, but just closed the season losing 7 of 8 games including a first round A10 loss to Umass. Charlotte is not going to be dancing.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Ranking the Bubble Part 1
Every year at this time I start to put together my NCAA tournament projections. Now I'm not going to mess with an actual bracket until some time during championship week, but for now I have ranked the teams I see as on the bubble. A few reminders there is a ton that will change over the next few weeks. A team like Cal, or St Mary's, or Old Dominion has no chance to improve its resume without winning their conference tournaments. Teams like UCONN, ND, St Louis (because of the strength of the A10 this year), Dayton, Charlotte, Ole Miss... all can improve their resume's. My rankings right now are just projections as of this time. A team like Charlotte can play their way in with some big wins down the stretch...a team like St Mary's needs help (unless they win the conference tournament).
The Cutoff for bubble teams right now is at SD State...but that could easily change if say Gonzaga does not win the West Coast Conference tournament, Butler does not win the Horizon League, or Northern Iowa does not win the Missouri Valley. That would mean less spots for those bubble teams.
Alright here it is:
Clemson- 2-4 against the RPI top 25, 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They have a top 30 RPI and are tied for third in the ACC. Their best wins are over Butler and Maryland. They've also swept fellow bubble team Florida State. They split with fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but should be above them in the pecking order at this point.
Marquette- With their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette now has 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 2-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville and UCONN. Marquette has to unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Georgia Tech- With their loss to Clemson, Georgia Tech is now under .500 in the ACC. They are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-4 against RPI 26-50. They have a great win over Duke...their other big wins are Wake Forest, Clemson and Siena. Despite a split with Clemson they are likely below them in the pecking order.
UNLV- The Rebels are in pretty good position to earn an at large bid. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. If UNLV wins their season finale against a 7-19 Wyoming squad I think they will probably be dancing.
Louisville- Finishing over .500 in the Big East may be enough to get them in the tournament but they shouldn't be too comfortable at this point. The Cardinals are only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (a great road win over Syracuse). They are 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They swept UCONN, and beat Cincinnati and ND. Getting smacked by Marquette did not help their tournament chances. Louisville could really use another win over Syracuse on Saturday...or a couple wins in the Big East tournament if they want to avoid sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.
Florida State- They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 and are 2-4 against RPI 26-50 (though they beat Marquette who sits just outside the top 50 and is another bubble team). Both of their top 50 victories were over bubble team Georgia Tech which is a plus, but Georgia Tech probably has a stronger overall body of work. Florida State was swept by fellow bubble team Clemson.
Illinois- They sit at 73 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-3 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Getting the sweep of Wisconsin Saturday would put Illinois in great position to earn a bid, otherwise they have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.
Florida- The recipe for them getting in is pretty simple...beat Kentucky To date Florida is 2-6 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). They missed their chance last night against Vanderbilt and now really need that upset over Kentucky. If they can manage to get that 3rd victory over RPI top 25 teams this week I think they'll be a tournament team (baring an awful SEC tournament performance). If they don't they'll need to be very impressive in the SEC tournament...semis at least...maybe a trip to the title game.
UCONN- This is another team that will be a real headache for the selection committee. If they can somehow sweep road games this week against ND and South Florida to get to .500 in the league they will probably be a tournament lock. UCONN really does have some strong wins. They are 3-5 against the RPI top 25 but 0-3 against RPI 26-50. They were swept by fellow bubble team Louisville and swept by fringe bubble team Cincinnati. They have two bad losses to Providence and Michigan. Still wins over Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas are probably a better group of wins than any other bubble teams. The committee likes to reward teams for winning big games, but if UCONN does not get to .500 in the Big East they are going to really be on the bubble come selection Sunday.
Notre Dame- Their RPI is only 68 which does not bode well for them, but they have looked more and more like a tournament team. Last week they beat Pitt and Georgetown to keep them on the bubble. Notre Dame is now a very strong 3-2 against the RPI top 25. If they can get a split with Marquette and UCONN this week Notre Dame will be firmly on the bubble. If they can sweep they'll probably be on the good side of the bubble.
Virginia Tech- They will be a very interesting call for the committee. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. The Hokies only have two RPI top 50 wins both of which were at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. They are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. VT may be an NCAA caliber team, but there really is not much on their resume to judge them by. The committee tends to frown on this so I think they'll really need to do something in the ACC tournament to earn a spot.
Dayton- What a hot and cold team they have been all year. Dayton is 1-5 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Ole Dominion. If Dayton can win both games this week they'll add another top 50 win as they get Richmond this week. Beating Richmond would put Dayton in pretty good position, especially if they make a nice run in the A10 tournament. Dayton would not be in today, but because of the relative strength of the A10 and who is on their schedule they have a chance to play themselves in.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. Last season I had them as my first team out...so clearly I think they just missed the big dance. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. SD State cannot afford to lose either of their last two games and probably needs to beat BYU or New Mexico in the conference tournament to earn a bid.
Seton Hall- Seton Hall is only 3-9 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. With their only games remaining being against Rutgers and Providence they could easily win those to get to .500 in the conference. Still Seton Would likely need to reach the semis of the Big East tournament to go dancing.
Mississippi State- Mississippi State is going to once again win the SEC west. They also swept fellow bubble team Ole Miss (though their overall resume probably is not as good). They are 1-4 in RPI top 50 games with their only RPI top 50 win came against Old Dominion early in the season. Mississippi State likely needs to make the finals of the conference tournament as well to earn a bid.
St Mary's- They are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (beating SD State and Utah State). With a trip to the conference finals and not too many upsets in conference tournaments they may have an outside shot at a bid, but in the end 2 RPI top 50 wins may not be enough.
Cal- I would say this is the only team that has a shot at an At-Large bid in the PAC Ten and even their resume is not particularly strong. Cal has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 21 so if they were left out they would be tied for the highest ranked RPI team ever to be left out (Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I am really not sure they deserve it. In fact I will not be giving them an at large bid in any projections I do. Their resume simply does not hold up. So yes...the PAC Ten should be a one bid league.
St Louis- They are only 86 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island, St Louis is 3-2 against the RPI top 50. They get Temple and Dayton this week. If they can sweep those games and get to 5-2 against the RPI top 50 ( and 12-4 in a particularly strong A10) they will be right there.
Ole Miss- The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They need to get to 9-7 in the SEC (which they should) and then probably reach the finals of the SEC tournament.
Minnesota- They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). Still getting drilled by Michigan probably eliminated them from at large consideration unless they can make a big run in the Big Ten tournament.
Charlotte- Another hot and cold team that seems to have fizzled out of late. Charlotte is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Louisville, Richmond and Temple (Richmond and Louisville were both true road games). Getting drilled by fellow bubble team Dayton will not help. Nor will their recent loss to George Washington. Charlotte has two games this week against top 50 RPI teams (Rhode Island and Richmond). If they could somehow sweep those games all of a sudden they become a very viable bubble team...without those and they'll likely be staying home.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 4-9 against the RPI top 50 (the 2 other victories being their sweep of UCONN). Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats need to beat Georgetown on Saturday, but baring a run to the finals of the Big East tournament it looks like they will be once again watching the NCAA tournament not participating in it.
Rhode Island- Rhode Island is likely going to be on the outside looking in (like it appears many of these A10 bubble teams will be). They are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. They'll need to win out and then get a victory over a Temple or Xavier in the conference tournament to be in the discussion.
UTEP- One of two Conference USA teams with a decent at-large candidacy. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having clinched the outright conference championship. They are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50, that victory being over UAB. They get UAB again this week and probably need a win to be in the at large discussion. They also probably cannot lose to anyone but UAB or Memphis in the conference tournament if they want an at large bid.
UAB- They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-2 against the RPI top 50. If they beat UTEP this week then lose to them in the finals maybe they'll be in the discussion, but even then I am not sure.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU, but they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). I doubt 1-1 will be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Old Dominion- They are 1-1 against the RPI top 25 and 0-3 against RPI 26-50. The win over Georgetown is impressive, but probably not impressive enough to earn an at large bid.
Cornell- They are not getting an at-large bid, but it won't matter because they are going to win the Ivy League.
The Cutoff for bubble teams right now is at SD State...but that could easily change if say Gonzaga does not win the West Coast Conference tournament, Butler does not win the Horizon League, or Northern Iowa does not win the Missouri Valley. That would mean less spots for those bubble teams.
Alright here it is:
Clemson- 2-4 against the RPI top 25, 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They have a top 30 RPI and are tied for third in the ACC. Their best wins are over Butler and Maryland. They've also swept fellow bubble team Florida State. They split with fellow bubble team Georgia Tech, but should be above them in the pecking order at this point.
Marquette- With their 69-48 victory thrashing of Louisville I think Marquette has earned their way into the dance. Marquette now has 11 Big East wins. They have 2 top 25 rpi wins beating Xavier and Georgetown (though 6 losses) and are 2-1 against the RPI 26-50 beating Louisville and UCONN. Marquette has to unfathomable losses to NC State and Depaul, but the overall resume should be enough to overcome those.
Georgia Tech- With their loss to Clemson, Georgia Tech is now under .500 in the ACC. They are 1-2 vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-4 against RPI 26-50. They have a great win over Duke...their other big wins are Wake Forest, Clemson and Siena. Despite a split with Clemson they are likely below them in the pecking order.
UNLV- The Rebels are in pretty good position to earn an at large bid. They are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Louisville, SD State, BYU and New Mexico. The New Mexico win was in the Pit and with New Mexico sitting in prime position for a 2 or 3 seed that victory is looking better by the day. If UNLV wins their season finale against a 7-19 Wyoming squad I think they will probably be dancing.
Louisville- Finishing over .500 in the Big East may be enough to get them in the tournament but they shouldn't be too comfortable at this point. The Cardinals are only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (a great road win over Syracuse). They are 2-1 against RPI 26-50. They swept UCONN, and beat Cincinnati and ND. Getting smacked by Marquette did not help their tournament chances. Louisville could really use another win over Syracuse on Saturday...or a couple wins in the Big East tournament if they want to avoid sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.
Florida State- They are 0-3 against the RPI top 25 and are 2-4 against RPI 26-50 (though they beat Marquette who sits just outside the top 50 and is another bubble team). Both of their top 50 victories were over bubble team Georgia Tech which is a plus, but Georgia Tech probably has a stronger overall body of work. Florida State was swept by fellow bubble team Clemson.
Illinois- They sit at 73 in the RPI which would be among the lowest for any team to make the tournament. Still Illinois is a very respectable 3-3 against the RPI top 25 beating Vanderbilt and Michigan State at home and getting a great road win in Wisconsin. Illinois also has a victory over fellow bubble team Clemson. Getting the sweep of Wisconsin Saturday would put Illinois in great position to earn a bid, otherwise they have some work to do in the Big Ten tournament.
Florida- The recipe for them getting in is pretty simple...beat Kentucky To date Florida is 2-6 against the RPI top 25 (victories over Tennessee and Michigan State) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (beating fellow bubble team Florida State). They missed their chance last night against Vanderbilt and now really need that upset over Kentucky. If they can manage to get that 3rd victory over RPI top 25 teams this week I think they'll be a tournament team (baring an awful SEC tournament performance). If they don't they'll need to be very impressive in the SEC tournament...semis at least...maybe a trip to the title game.
UCONN- This is another team that will be a real headache for the selection committee. If they can somehow sweep road games this week against ND and South Florida to get to .500 in the league they will probably be a tournament lock. UCONN really does have some strong wins. They are 3-5 against the RPI top 25 but 0-3 against RPI 26-50. They were swept by fellow bubble team Louisville and swept by fringe bubble team Cincinnati. They have two bad losses to Providence and Michigan. Still wins over Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas are probably a better group of wins than any other bubble teams. The committee likes to reward teams for winning big games, but if UCONN does not get to .500 in the Big East they are going to really be on the bubble come selection Sunday.
Notre Dame- Their RPI is only 68 which does not bode well for them, but they have looked more and more like a tournament team. Last week they beat Pitt and Georgetown to keep them on the bubble. Notre Dame is now a very strong 3-2 against the RPI top 25. If they can get a split with Marquette and UCONN this week Notre Dame will be firmly on the bubble. If they can sweep they'll probably be on the good side of the bubble.
Virginia Tech- They will be a very interesting call for the committee. VT has one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (something the committee generally penalizes teams for) at 344. The Hokies only have two RPI top 50 wins both of which were at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. They are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. 17 of their 22 wins are against teams with a sub .500 RPI... of those 10 had RPI's below 150 and 8 had RPI's outside the top 200. Basically they inflated their record playing a lot of bad teams. VT may be an NCAA caliber team, but there really is not much on their resume to judge them by. The committee tends to frown on this so I think they'll really need to do something in the ACC tournament to earn a spot.
Dayton- What a hot and cold team they have been all year. Dayton is 1-5 against the RPI top 25 and 2-1 against RPI 26-50. Their win over Xavier looks better by the day. They have a neutral site win over fellow bubble team Georgia Tech and win over Ole Dominion. If Dayton can win both games this week they'll add another top 50 win as they get Richmond this week. Beating Richmond would put Dayton in pretty good position, especially if they make a nice run in the A10 tournament. Dayton would not be in today, but because of the relative strength of the A10 and who is on their schedule they have a chance to play themselves in.
SD State- For a second straight year SD State is going to be sitting squarely on the bubble. Last season I had them as my first team out...so clearly I think they just missed the big dance. SD State is only 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100. To me that does not scream NCAA team. They did split with bubble team UNLV and get a split against New Mexico. SD State cannot afford to lose either of their last two games and probably needs to beat BYU or New Mexico in the conference tournament to earn a bid.
Seton Hall- Seton Hall is only 3-9 vs. the RPI top 50 with victories over Pitt, Louisville and Cornell. With their only games remaining being against Rutgers and Providence they could easily win those to get to .500 in the conference. Still Seton Would likely need to reach the semis of the Big East tournament to go dancing.
Mississippi State- Mississippi State is going to once again win the SEC west. They also swept fellow bubble team Ole Miss (though their overall resume probably is not as good). They are 1-4 in RPI top 50 games with their only RPI top 50 win came against Old Dominion early in the season. Mississippi State likely needs to make the finals of the conference tournament as well to earn a bid.
St Mary's- They are 2-3 against the RPI top 50 (beating SD State and Utah State). With a trip to the conference finals and not too many upsets in conference tournaments they may have an outside shot at a bid, but in the end 2 RPI top 50 wins may not be enough.
Cal- I would say this is the only team that has a shot at an At-Large bid in the PAC Ten and even their resume is not particularly strong. Cal has zero top 50 RPI wins going 0-4 against the RPI top 50. They only have 1 non-conference RPI top 100 win. They have an RPI of 21 so if they were left out they would be tied for the highest ranked RPI team ever to be left out (Missouri State in 2005 currently holds that distinction). If they make the PAC Ten finals they'll could very well get a bid, but I am really not sure they deserve it. In fact I will not be giving them an at large bid in any projections I do. Their resume simply does not hold up. So yes...the PAC Ten should be a one bid league.
St Louis- They are only 86 in the RPI, so their resume does not scream tournament team, but their performance in a strong Atlantic Ten Conference has earned them a spot in the discussion. With wins over Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island, St Louis is 3-2 against the RPI top 50. They get Temple and Dayton this week. If they can sweep those games and get to 5-2 against the RPI top 50 ( and 12-4 in a particularly strong A10) they will be right there.
Ole Miss- The Rebels have been riding their incredibly impressive victory neutral site win over Kansas State all season long. That simply is not going to be good enough unless they make a run in the SEC tournament. Ole Miss is only 1-5 against the RPI top 25 (and again that 1 win was early) and 1-1 against RPI 26-50 (another early season win against UTEP). Basically since conference play began Ole Miss has not been an NCAA team. They need to get to 9-7 in the SEC (which they should) and then probably reach the finals of the SEC tournament.
Minnesota- They are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Butler, Wisconsin and Ohio State (and the Ohio State win was with Evan Turner). Still getting drilled by Michigan probably eliminated them from at large consideration unless they can make a big run in the Big Ten tournament.
Charlotte- Another hot and cold team that seems to have fizzled out of late. Charlotte is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 with wins over Louisville, Richmond and Temple (Richmond and Louisville were both true road games). Getting drilled by fellow bubble team Dayton will not help. Nor will their recent loss to George Washington. Charlotte has two games this week against top 50 RPI teams (Rhode Island and Richmond). If they could somehow sweep those games all of a sudden they become a very viable bubble team...without those and they'll likely be staying home.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats having been clinging to their two big non-conference victories all season long. Those victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland have looked stronger and stronger all season long. The problem is since conference play the Bearcats just do not have enough to hold their hat on. They are only 4-9 against the RPI top 50 (the 2 other victories being their sweep of UCONN). Cincinnati has a lot of close losses to good teams, but in the end you have win one or two big games for those to come into play. Had the Bearcats managed to get to .500 in the Big East all of a sudden you can look at overtime losses to Xavier, Marquette and Gonzaga and give the Bearcats some credit. At this point those don't come into play. The Bearcats need to beat Georgetown on Saturday, but baring a run to the finals of the Big East tournament it looks like they will be once again watching the NCAA tournament not participating in it.
Rhode Island- Rhode Island is likely going to be on the outside looking in (like it appears many of these A10 bubble teams will be). They are only 2-4 against the RPI top 50 beating Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and beating Dayton on the road. Their biggest issue is they are only 1-5 against the A10 teams contending for an at-large bid. They'll need to win out and then get a victory over a Temple or Xavier in the conference tournament to be in the discussion.
UTEP- One of two Conference USA teams with a decent at-large candidacy. They are clearly first in the pecking order of those teams having clinched the outright conference championship. They are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50, that victory being over UAB. They get UAB again this week and probably need a win to be in the at large discussion. They also probably cannot lose to anyone but UAB or Memphis in the conference tournament if they want an at large bid.
UAB- They have a nice win over Butler and a win over Cincinnati, but really that is about it. They are only 1-2 against the RPI top 50. If they beat UTEP this week then lose to them in the finals maybe they'll be in the discussion, but even then I am not sure.
Utah State- They have rolled through their conference, they are 8-4 against the RPI top 100 and 8-5 in true Road Games. They have a big win over BYU, but they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50 (a close loss at New Mexico). I doubt 1-1 will be enough to get them an at large bid, but they did get a bid in 2005 with zero top 50 wins...so who knows.
Old Dominion- They are 1-1 against the RPI top 25 and 0-3 against RPI 26-50. The win over Georgetown is impressive, but probably not impressive enough to earn an at large bid.
Cornell- They are not getting an at-large bid, but it won't matter because they are going to win the Ivy League.
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