My bracket for the morning of Selection Sunday.
1 Seeds- Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC, Michigan State
2 Seeds- Missouri, Kansas, Ohio State, Duke
3 Seeds- Baylor, Florida State, Marquette, Louisville
4 Seeds- Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Georgetown
5 Seeds- Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Florida, Cincinnati
6 Seeds- New Mexico, Murray State, San Diego State, Memphis
7 Seeds- Creighton, Notre Dame, Temple, St Marys
8 Seeds- Purdue, UNLV, Iowa State, Gonzaga
9 Seeds- Kansas State, Alabama, Xavier, Southern Miss
10 Seeds- Uconn, St Louis ,VCU, Harvard
11 Seeds- Colorado State, West Virginia, Long Beach State, Texas
12 Seeds- South Florida, Virginia, California, Seton Hall/NC State
13 Seeds- Drexel/BYU, Colorado, New Mexico State, Ohio
14 Seeds- Davidson, South Dakota State, Belmont, Montana
15 Seeds- Detroit, Loyola, LIU, UNC Ashville
16 Seeds- Lehigh, Vermont, Norfolk State/Western Kentucky, Lamar/Mississippi Valley State
Last 5 in:
First 5 Out:
Others in the field I could see committee leaving out: Colorado State, Texas, South Florida, Virginia
Others I could see committee including: Miami (Fl), Northwestern, Ole Miss
Others I could see committee ridiculously including: Washington
I would not have a problem with the committee leaving out any of my last 5 in and replacing them with any of my First 5 out. To me you could make a good case one way or the other for either of those teams. Hell I would not have a problem with excluding any of the other teams I listed in “Others in the field I could see committee leaving out” in favor of any of my first 5 out. I do think the committee has a harder time making a case for Miami, Northwestern and Ole Miss. And though I think Washington may get it, I think that would be ludicrous. Washington is 4-8 against the RPI top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team in the top 85 (#67 Oregon). That is not a tournament resume, despite the outright Pac 12 championship.
1 Seeds: Kentucky and Syracuse are set in stone as the 1 and 2 overall respectively. I think if UNC and Michigan State win they will be the other number 1 seeds. If UNC loses that opens the door for either Missouri or Kansas to grab a number 1 seed (not sure who the committee will take, I favor Missouri at this point, barely). If UNC loses that would make the winner of OSU/Michigan State the 4th number 1 seed. If UNC wins and Ohio State wins the Big 10, one of Kansas, Missouri and Ohio State will get that last #1 seed. I think the committee would likely take Ohio State in that scenario, but I could see either of the other 2 getting taken instead.
2 seeds- The two seeds of course will be whichever of the 5 teams still competing for the last 2 1 seeds do not get it. I have Duke as a 2 seed still, but if Florida State wins the ACC tournament I think they jump to the 2 line and Duke falls to the top 3.
I have Cincinnati as the last 5 seed, but I think they are more likely to be a 6 seed if that makes sense. I think it is more likely the committee puts teams I have behind them above them, than putting UC above the teams I have above them.
Vanderbilt- If they win the SEC I think they play themselves into a 4 seed.
I do not think the committee moves Xavier today whether they win or lose. I do not think committee will care about a win over St Bonnie, but I also do not think they will penalize them for losing while playing their 3rd game in 3 days for an A10 title.
NC State is my last team in, so if St Bonnie wins the A10 tournament I think they replace the Wolfpack in the bracket. I think St Bonnie would likely be a 13 seed at that point, which would make Cal one of the last 4 in and put them in a play in game. If this happened both the play in games would be on the 12 seed line.