Saturday is a day all Bearcat fans have been looking forward
to, as UC gets a chance at one of the Ohio State Universities (the Columbus Branch).
Nobody disagrees that Ohio State has been the premier college football
program in the state of Ohio, but as the other major University in the state
Bearcat fans believe this game should be played more often (hell I believe in
basketball it should be played every year and in football I’d like it to be
played on a home and home basis). Sadly,
this game does not get played often and because of OSU being scared to play it
in Cincinnati the game got moved back to Columbus. Because the game is played so rarely, a win
here would be that much sweeter.
However, winning in Columbus will be a tall order. Though Ohio State struggled against Virginia
Tech, this is still an immensely talent team with blue chippers all over the
field. The Buckeyes freshman QB has
gained valuable experience already and will be much better than he was in Ohio
State’s early loss. This is former
Bearcat Urban Meyer’s third year at Ohio State and the Buckeyes have only lost
3 games in that time. Given some of the
Bearcat’s struggles early this season winning may seem like a daunting task,
but I believe there is a formula for success that the Bearcats are equipped to
achieve. If the Bearcats perform at the
high level they are capable of, in many ways they may be a very difficult matchup
for Ohio State.
To me the biggest matchup in this game is the UC wide
receivers vs. the Ohio State defensive backs.
Make no mistake, this will be the best set of wide receivers the
Buckeyes face in the 2014 regular season.
Going into the season the biggest question on the Ohio State roster
(prior to the injury to Braxton Miller) was whether the Ohio State secondary
could be better than last season. So far
this year Ohio State ranks forth nationall in pass defense, but that number may largely
be a result of who they have played.
Ohio State started with a Navy team that never throws the ball, then
played a Virginia Tech team breaking in a new QB (and one that has rarely been
known as a prolific passing offense) and then played a completely outclassed
Kent State team. So while Buckeyes fans
may be encouraged by the secondary so far, this will be the first true test of
the season.
Last season the Buckeyes ranked 121st in pass
defense and the Buckeyes didn’t exactly play a murderer’s row of passing
offenses. Yea, Clemson was loaded in the
bowl game, but teams like Michigan State, Michigan, Cal and to a lesser extent Northwestern
and Illinois weren’t amazing passing teams and all of them were able to gash
the Buckeye secondary, at times, through the air.
This is an area that Ohio State cannot feel 100% comfortable with,
despite the solid start and the Bearcats have the talent to exploit it. In the first game the Bearcats had 6
different wide receivers catch TD passes.
The Bearcats have had 9 different receivers (plus 2 running backs and a
tight end) catch passes in their 2 games.
They have size, speed and burst from their receivers. This is a talented group that will absolutely
test the Ohio State secondary.
For the Bearcats to beat Ohio State they are going to have
to challenge the Buckeye secondary consistently. They are going to need to get first downs and
keep the defense off the field for extended periods of time. Gunner is going to need some time to throw,
but he’ll need to take advantage of a strong group of receivers and hopefully
an Ohio State secondary that still has issues.
I think the run will have to be a secondary option against Ohio
State. Their defensive line is too good
to simply try to run at them regularly. If
the passing game is working and the Bearcats are exposing the secondary, I
believe the running game can offer a good change of pace and can be an area of
strength for the Bearcats.
Offensively the Bearcats have shown flashes of being
incredibly explosive this year (particularly the first half against Toledo),
but defensively has been a struggle so far.
I think Ohio State is too good offensively for UC to shut them
down. Their offensive line will be a big
advantage and Meyer has traditionally boasted some of the best rushing attacks
in the country. Despite that, UC has
talent and speed on defense. If the
Bearcats defense plays a solid game and show significant improvement from the
first two games, they can slow this Buckeye team down enough to win the game.
My hope is the Bearcats get aggressive with run blitzes and
pressure designed to keep Barrett in the pocket. The hope would be to make a few stops on
first and second down that put the Buckeyes in third and long situations. I know Ohio State is going to have success running
the ball, but some well-timed run blitzes and pressure could get them off
schedule. When UC gets OSU off schedule,
it must take advantage. Simply put, UC
must stop Ohio State on third and long situations if it hopes to leave Columbus
with a win.
I also hope to see the Bearcats use a few more man concepts in
the secondary this game than the first two games. Many of the chunk plays the first two games
were given up where players left their man either not understanding the
coverage or thinking there was help in another area. I think man concepts would limit these
types of mistakes. I am sure the
talented Ohio State receivers will be able to create some separation, but even
that will at least require a good read from Barrett and not allow him simply to
throw to spots where receivers have been left wide open.
I’ve heard some people speculate that UC was playing vanilla
with their defense the first couple of games so as to not put anything on
film. I partly agree with this
interpretation, but I do not think it was in the hopes of not putting anything
on film. I think UC hoped to get acclimated
to the new defensive system at game speed.
I think they were working on their essential concepts and base defenses. I do not think that style will be enough this
week. I think they will have to change
it up. They will have to bring pressure
at times and will have to give different looks in the secondary. The goal should be to make Barrett beat them
in third and long situations.
Additionally, the goal should be to make Barrett beat them
by completing multiple passes. Avoiding
the chunk plays that plagued UC the first two weeks will be huge. When UC brings some pressure the design of
the defense should be such that everything stays in front of their
secondary. Sure tackling will be
important in these situations. In the
Buckeyes loss to VT this year, Barrett was only 9-29. I don’t think the UC defense is capable of
that kind of success, but that does show me that making him try to beat them
without big plays would be the right strategy.
Lastly, the Bearcat special teams must not kill them. This was an issue last year. I don’t think UC has to be exceptional, but
they cannot shank punts, give up big returns or turn the ball over on special
teams. Perhaps just as importantly, the
field goal kickers must deliver if given an opportunity inside 40 yards. The Bearcats have the talent to win this
game, they have areas where they can expose the Buckeye defense, but executing
at a higher level than they have so far this year is critical. I think the Bearcats need to score in the mid 30s or higher to win. I have not seen a high enough level of consistent
execution yet this season to predict a Bearcat victory. I think they are capable, I think they will
score on Ohio State, but I have not seen the defense do enough yet to predict a
win.
Prediction: Buckeyes
41 Bearcats 31
(At least I feel decent about my chances of being wrong on
this prediction…Go Bearcats)
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