Every year I have to read some UC fan conspiracy theories
about how and why UC is getting screwed by the committee. Sorry guys, they just aren’t. There are plenty of issues I have with how
the committee seeds teams. They need to
get rid of the RPI teamsheets and use advanced metric based teamsheets (like
Sagarin, Kenpom or even BPI). When they
breakdown top 25,50,100 wins they need to adjust for home road. Sagarin and Kenpom already have systems that
do this… they’ll tell you that a road win over team X is the equivalent of a
home win over team Y. The teamsheets
should include these adjustments.
However, UC was not a victim of this.
UC finished 22 in kenpom and they are 22 on the S-Curve…. By some arguments they are one of the teams
the committee got exactly right. I had
UC as a 5 seed. I think it would have
been reasonable to have them there, but their resume was a 5 or 6 seed based on
how the committee generally seeds teams.
This was not crazy.
The other big complaint I am getting is that UC was shipped
out west. UC is a 6 seed…which means
they are not a protected seed. When you
are not a high seed you run the risk of being shipped to an unfavorable
location. Hell even 4 seeds can run this
risk if the committee runs out of favorable pods. Two of the 3 seeds were Oregon and UCLA. Those teams were placed in Sacramento. Because of this two 6 seeds were
automatically going to be placed in Sacramento.
Additionally, Mick and many other coaches have made it clear that they
think teams that have to play on selection Sunday should not have to play until
Friday in the tournament. If the
committee is attempting to do that when possible then they had to avoid placing
Cincinnati in Orlando.
UC playing Friday left two spots in Sacramento and a spot in
Tulsa open. The Tulsa spot was the
logical spot for SMU as the top 6 seed and because it was very close. Hence UC ended up in Sacramento. It’s not some vast conspiracy against UC, it’s
the reality of how the committee puts the tournament field together. UC still gets to play a team they should beat
and if they win likely a UCLA team that is flashy and great offensively, but
really struggles to defend. UCLA is the
kind of team UC should be able to score inside against. UC’s ability to make the other team play half
court is another big advantage. If I am
UCLA, I am not happy with having to play UC.
UCLA is only a couple spots above UC in most the advanced metrics. It will be difficult for UC to make the Sweet
16, but this is not some awful draw where they have no shot.
A look at the rest of
the Bracket:
Committee did a mostly fair job, despite the stupid metrics
they use. I nailed the field exactly,
nailed the 1 seeds and was able to predict 63 of 68 teams within one seed
line.
One Seeds: I nailed
all four of these and think they were the right choices. UNC over Duke seems to have created the most
controversy, but the committee always likes to reward great regular seasons
over a great week in the conference tournament.
I think UNC’s consistency earned them this spot. I think North Carolina has the easiest path
the elite eight of any 1 seed. They have
by my calculation the weakest 5 and the weakest4. Neither second round matchup is particularly
scary. I think Gonzaga is best team and
has a reasonably good path as well. For
that reason I like Gonzaga v. UNC to play for the Championship. I always like taking teams that have to play
fewer difficult games.
Two Seeds: I hit 3 of
these 4, having Oregon as a 2 instead of Louisville. I think this are perfectly reasonable 2
seeds. Duke is playing great and has a
very reasonable path to the elite eight.
I like Louisville in each game, but their second round matchup will be
tough regardless of the team they play.
Arizona’s path sets up nice for a rematch with Gonzaga.
Three Seeds: I only
hit two of these as I had Oregon as 3 instead of Louisville and had West
Virginia instead of Florida State.
Florida State is fine because they have great wins and I am fine with
valuing Louisville over Oregon. I don’t
really feel great about any of the 3 seeds chances to make a deep run this
year, though I feel best about Oregon. I
think Oregon is a bit undervalued and they have a nice draw to the Sweet 16. They could avoid Louisville if things break
right and Kansas is the weakest 1 seed.
Four Seeds: I missed
on 2 of these as well. I had FSU instead
of West Virginia and I had Notre Dame instead of Purdue. Again I was one seed off of all of them so no
real complaints with the committee’s choices.
I really liked both Florida and Virginia before the tournament so that
could be a great second round matchup. I
think I am going to take Vermont over Purdue, mainly because I am not huge on
Purdue’s chances of making a run and I like that Vermont team. I could see Florida or West Virginia making a
final four run, but not the other two.
Five Seeds: Once
again I had them all within 1 seed line but the only actual 5 seed I hit was
Virginia. I thought UC and Iowa State
would be close enough that UC’s win at Iowa State would keep the Bearcats above
the Cyclones, but the committee’s 5 seeds were mostly reasonable. I don’t quite get Minnesota as a 5, but I had
them as a 6 so we weren’t really that far apart. I plan on picking against Minnesota. I know a lot of people like UNCW over Virginia,
but I think Virginia understands playing against that style (just watch them
against Louisville every year). The two 5/12s upsets I like the most are
Princeton over Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee State over Minnesota.
Six Seeds: Creighton
is the only 1 I had though I had the three others only one line apart. We talked extensively about UC, but I love
SMU’s draw (which is likely what UC could have had with a win yesterday). Providence and USC are two of the weakest at
large teams, Providence is 56 kenpom, USC is 61. By comparison Kansas State and Wake sit at 29
and 30 respectfully. Then SMU gets a
Baylor team that got some amazing wins early, but has been pretty average the
last month and half. I really liked SMU
before the tournament and love them to get to a Sweet 16 right now. Maryland is about as underwhelming a 6 seed
as there could be so that is a great draw for Xavier.
Seven Seeds: I had
St. Marys and Michigan as 7 seeds, but here is where a couple of my biggest
misses came. I had Dayton all the way
down at a 10 as I just didn’t think they beat enough good teams to be
higher. I had South Carolina as a 10 for
the exact same reason. I am mildly
surprised by these, though when you get the 7 through 10 you can often pull
those teams out of a hat. Of the 7 seeds I think Michigan and St Marys
are both incredibly dangerous, though I think Michigan has a coinflip first
round game. St Mary’s v. Arizona could
be an excellent second round game with the real chance for an upset. I don’t think Dayton or South Carolina are
very big threats.
Eight Seeds: I missed
on all of these though I had Arkansas, Miami and Northwestern in the 8/9 games
as 9 seeds. I think Wisconsin is
underseeded especially when you look at the Big Ten teams above them. Wisconsin is a dangerous 8 seed should they
win and get to play Villanova. I think
Miami is also a very dangerous 8 seed for a Kansas team I am underwhelmed
by.
Nine Seeds: Once
again I missed on all of these though I had Michigan State, Virginia Tech and
Seton Hall all in the 8/9 games but as 8 seeds.
My biggest miss in the group is a 15 loss Vandy team I had as one of the
last 4 in. I am not very surprised they
are higher because the committee consistently rewards SOS. Vandy had the #1 nonconference SOS and the #2
overall SOS. As a result the committee
had them safely in. Of the 9 seeds I
think Seton Hall has been playing the best basketball, but Virginia Tech has
the offensive firepower to be difficult for Villanova. I think the VT / Wisconsin game should be
really interesting.
Ten Seeds: I hit both
Wichita State and VCU, but missed on the other two (though I had Marquette within
1 seed line). My biggest miss here was I
had Oklahoma State as an 8 seed and they wound up a ten. I like that Oklahoma State team a ton and
will be picking them against a Michigan team I also like. Louisville is in for a very tough second
round game regardless. Wichita State is
also a victim of the committees love of RPI top xyz wins. Most of the advanced metrics suggest the
Shockers are a top 10-15 team. That’s a
brutal draw for UK in the second round (Though maybe some poetic justice as the
Shockers drew the supremely talented Wildcats as an 8 seed when they were a 1…still
maybe the best second round game I can remember in the NCAA tournament). Some numbers suggest UK/Wichita is close to a
coinflip so they may be a good team to take a risk on.
Eleven Seeds: I hit 3
of the 6 (Xavier, Rhode Island and Kansas State). I had Middle Tennessee State as another which
dropped the other play in teams to a 12 seed.
I had all of them within 1 seed line.
Xavier has a great draw as they are actually rated higher by Kenpom than
their opponent (not definitive but these teams are closer than you’d expect
11/6 to be). As noted UC’s possible opponents are pretty
good for 11 seeds, but beatable. I don’t
think USC or Providence have a great shot against SMU. Rhode Island and Creighton is a good matchup
that I think could go either way.
Twelve-Sixteen Seeds:
Hit all of these within a seed line.
We’ve already discussed the upsets I like.
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