Wes Miller Continues to Do an Exceptional Job

 

Roughly a year ago, when UC fans were panicking because Wes Miller’s Bearcat team wasn’t going to make the NCAA tournament in year 2, I wrote an article titled “Why I think Wes Miller will bring UC Back.”  Year 2 ultimately saw UC jump 50 spots in kenpom from year one.  It saw a team make the NIT quarterfinals.  It saw a team with predictive metrics of a fringe tournament team.  It was a huge step in the right direction. 

                So here we are a year later, in the toughest conference in college basketball, and I continue to read about how bad this team is from far too many.  This year’s team has jumped another 15ish spots in the predictive metrics despite losing 5 of its top 6 scorers from last year and playing in the best conference in college basketball.  It has the predictive metrics of a solid tournament team, though the resume metrics are that of a bubble team. 

So, with a few weeks left to go, UC sits squarely on the bubble, with more chances to play their way in.  That is an accomplishment and a testament to the job Wes Miller has done with this basketball team. 

 

This Team is Missing Top of the Roster Starters

                Almost every team that makes the tournament as an at large team will have top of the roster starters.  UC just doesn’t have them.  Wes restocked the roster last offseason with Big 12 level guys at nearly every position (and developed a few that were in the program on his own), but none of those guys are top of the roster starters.  Evan Miya had a great chart that really visualizes this:

Evan Miya Tweet

                These are the top 40 teams by NET.  Only Oklahoma’s and Washington States’ top guy is as low as Dan Skillings, UC’s top guy by Miya’s metric.  But if you look, there is a cluster up by Skillings.  The spread in UC’s 7 most impactful guys isn’t very much.  They are all good players, nobody is great. 

                I don’t think that’s an indictment on Wes’s roster building either.  If Nolley had returned this year they’d probably have that true high end guy they are missing.  And there are guys on the roster that I think are going to develop into that as soon as next season.  Dan Skillings has made an enormous leap from 1 to year 2.  He’s been the best guy on this team more often than anyone during Big 12 play. 

                Jizzle James is making as big of an impact as I can remember any Freshman making at UC since Jarron Cumberland.  There is every reason to believe he is going to be an elite college basketball player.  Transfers often make their biggest jump from year 1 to year 2 in a program.  Aziz, Reynolds, Simas and Day Day have all shown glimpses of what could make them special players.  There is every reason to believe all can make jumps next year (not that all of them will, but they don’t need all of them to). 

                And UC doesn’t need everyone to be a top of the roster starter… they just need a few. 

 

What Wes is Doing Without Top of the Roster Starters is Absurdly Impressive

                Look at that chart again.  UC is a complete anomaly among the NET top 40 teams.  Almost everyone has not just better high end guys, significantly better high end guys, than UC.   UC’s best player varies so much game to game, hell, sometimes several times a game.   

                Which is why, we’ve seen Wes tinker throughout the season, working to find the right lineup combinations, working to figure out who has it that night, or who is the best matchup within a specific game.  Aziz Bandaogo can look like the best player on the floor against UCF the other night, or against BYU, but completely out of place against Iowa State. 

                In games where the floor opens up Newman can really bring you a lot of offense, particularly getting to the rim, but he’s also been reliable on open threes.  In games, where the defenses are elite in their rotations, he has really struggled. 

Dan has been the closest thing to a consistent, game after game, guy in Big 12 play, but we all know there are segments where his offense tends to disappear.  Simas is our best decision maker and best at understanding where to go with the ball, but defenses can force him into some turnovers when they really pressure him. 

This team has a variety of skills from a variety of very different, good, big 12 level basketball players.  But they are all really guys not meant to carry a team (at least at this point in the college basketball careers).  Wes has found ways to balance that.  To stay in games when he’s not getting the play he needs from a couple of guys, by identifying and leaning on guys who are playing better or perhaps are just better matchups in that particular game. 

The fact that this team has only been blown out once in conference play is a testament to the absurd job Wes is doing at navigating the roster limitations.  He has consistently put UC in position to win games, and while they haven’t won them all, they have 3Q1 road wins in conference.  They have a home win over TCU (A Q2 A win at the moment).  They are firmly on the bubble with a chance to play their way into the tournament.  That is a huge deal for a team that replaced 5 of its top 6 scorers from last season and jumped from the American Athletic Conference to the Best Conference in College Basketball (by a wide margin).

 

It’s Also a Big Deal for Next Season

                I don’t want to spend too much time on next season, because I think there is plenty to play for this year and believe this team is still well positioned to get UC back to the dance… but Wes didn’t just bring in one year, stop-gap guys.  He has a roster positioned to have significant continuity in year 2 in the Big 12, and the potential to make an enormous leap (and that’s without portal additions).

                Getting all of these guys another year in the program will be huge for their development.  Dan and Jizzle are two guys I am confident will be stars… and I think next year is a reasonable timetable for both.  Reynolds and Aziz are both very capable centers who have showed potential to be more.  They are very different and could be a great two headed monster next season.  Simas will have another year in the program to grow with the guys around him. 

                This feels like a roster poised to make a huge leap next year.  And that’s before the portal where even one big time addition could be enormous.  I’d be shocked if they weren’t a top 25 team next year.  I’d be surprised if they weren’t a top 20 team.  I think they have a great chance to be a top 15 team next year.  Because we’ve seen a team, without stars, integrating a ton of new pieces, navigating injuries, and missing guys due to transfer issues, do a lot of great things.  Once this team has the high end starters that nearly every other top 40 team has, the sky is the limit. 

                All of that is a testament to the job Wes Miller is doing this season, and the job he is doing building this program to put it in position to succeed in the future.  We are lucky to have one of the best young coaches in college basketball.  I wish more fans would enjoy the ride.