How the Bearcats Can Beat Ohio State

Saturday is a day all Bearcat fans have been looking forward to, as UC gets a chance at one of the Ohio State Universities (the Columbus Branch).  Nobody disagrees that Ohio State has been the premier college football program in the state of Ohio, but as the other major University in the state Bearcat fans believe this game should be played more often (hell I believe in basketball it should be played every year and in football I’d like it to be played on a home and home basis).  Sadly, this game does not get played often and because of OSU being scared to play it in Cincinnati the game got moved back to Columbus.  Because the game is played so rarely, a win here would be that much sweeter. 

However, winning in Columbus will be a tall order.  Though Ohio State struggled against Virginia Tech, this is still an immensely talent team with blue chippers all over the field.   The Buckeyes freshman QB has gained valuable experience already and will be much better than he was in Ohio State’s early loss.  This is former Bearcat Urban Meyer’s third year at Ohio State and the Buckeyes have only lost 3 games in that time.  Given some of the Bearcat’s struggles early this season winning may seem like a daunting task, but I believe there is a formula for success that the Bearcats are equipped to achieve.  If the Bearcats perform at the high level they are capable of, in many ways they may be a very difficult matchup for Ohio State.

To me the biggest matchup in this game is the UC wide receivers vs. the Ohio State defensive backs.  Make no mistake, this will be the best set of wide receivers the Buckeyes face in the 2014 regular season.  Going into the season the biggest question on the Ohio State roster (prior to the injury to Braxton Miller) was whether the Ohio State secondary could be better than last season.  So far this year Ohio State ranks forth nationall in pass defense, but that number may largely be a result of who they have played.  Ohio State started with a Navy team that never throws the ball, then played a Virginia Tech team breaking in a new QB (and one that has rarely been known as a prolific passing offense) and then played a completely outclassed Kent State team.  So while Buckeyes fans may be encouraged by the secondary so far, this will be the first true test of the season.

Last season the Buckeyes ranked 121^st in pass defense and the Buckeyes didn’t exactly play a murderer’s row of passing offenses.  Yea, Clemson was loaded in the bowl game, but teams like Michigan State, Michigan, Cal and to a lesser extent Northwestern and Illinois weren’t amazing passing teams and all of them were able to gash the Buckeye secondary, at times, through the air.  This is an area that Ohio State cannot feel 100% comfortable with, despite the solid start and the Bearcats have the talent to exploit it.  In the first game the Bearcats had 6 different wide receivers catch TD passes.  The Bearcats have had 9 different receivers (plus 2 running backs and a tight end) catch passes in their 2 games.  They have size, speed and burst from their receivers.  This is a talented group that will absolutely test the Ohio State secondary.

For the Bearcats to beat Ohio State they are going to have to challenge the Buckeye secondary consistently.  They are going to need to get first downs and keep the defense off the field for extended periods of time.  Gunner is going to need some time to throw, but he’ll need to take advantage of a strong group of receivers and hopefully an Ohio State secondary that still has issues.  I think the run will have to be a secondary option against Ohio State.  Their defensive line is too good to simply try to run at them regularly.  If the passing game is working and the Bearcats are exposing the secondary, I believe the running game can offer a good change of pace and can be an area of strength for the Bearcats. 

Offensively the Bearcats have shown flashes of being incredibly explosive this year (particularly the first half against Toledo), but defensively has been a struggle so far.  I think Ohio State is too good offensively for UC to shut them down.  Their offensive line will be a big advantage and Meyer has traditionally boasted some of the best rushing attacks in the country.  Despite that, UC has talent and speed on defense.  If the Bearcats defense plays a solid game and show significant improvement from the first two games, they can slow this Buckeye team down enough to win the game.

My hope is the Bearcats get aggressive with run blitzes and pressure designed to keep Barrett in the pocket.  The hope would be to make a few stops on first and second down that put the Buckeyes in third and long situations.  I know Ohio State is going to have success running the ball, but some well-timed run blitzes and pressure could get them off schedule.  When UC gets OSU off schedule, it must take advantage.  Simply put, UC must stop Ohio State on third and long situations if it hopes to leave Columbus with a win.

I also hope to see the Bearcats use a few more man concepts in the secondary this game than the first two games.  Many of the chunk plays the first two games were given up where players left their man either not understanding the coverage or thinking there was help in another area.  I think man concepts would limit these types of mistakes.  I am sure the talented Ohio State receivers will be able to create some separation, but even that will at least require a good read from Barrett and not allow him simply to throw to spots where receivers have been left wide open. 

I’ve heard some people speculate that UC was playing vanilla with their defense the first couple of games so as to not put anything on film.  I partly agree with this interpretation, but I do not think it was in the hopes of not putting anything on film.  I think UC hoped to get acclimated to the new defensive system at game speed.  I think they were working on their essential concepts and base defenses.  I do not think that style will be enough this week.  I think they will have to change it up.  They will have to bring pressure at times and will have to give different looks in the secondary.  The goal should be to make Barrett beat them in third and long situations. 

Additionally, the goal should be to make Barrett beat them by completing multiple passes.  Avoiding the chunk plays that plagued UC the first two weeks will be huge.  When UC brings some pressure the design of the defense should be such that everything stays in front of their secondary.  Sure tackling will be important in these situations.  In the Buckeyes loss to VT this year, Barrett was only 9-29.  I don’t think the UC defense is capable of that kind of success, but that does show me that making him try to beat them without big plays would be the right strategy. 

Lastly, the Bearcat special teams must not kill them.  This was an issue last year.  I don’t think UC has to be exceptional, but they cannot shank punts, give up big returns or turn the ball over on special teams.  Perhaps just as importantly, the field goal kickers must deliver if given an opportunity inside 40 yards.  The Bearcats have the talent to win this game, they have areas where they can expose the Buckeye defense, but executing at a higher level than they have so far this year is critical.  I think the Bearcats need to score in the mid 30s or higher to win.  I have not seen a high enough level of consistent execution yet this season to predict a Bearcat victory.  I think they are capable, I think they will score on Ohio State, but I have not seen the defense do enough yet to predict a win.

Prediction:  Buckeyes 41 Bearcats 31

(At least I feel decent about my chances of being wrong on this prediction…Go Bearcats)

My Most Read Post Revisited: Why OSU refused to play in Cincinnati.

UC's game against Ohio State this Saturday is the Result of Ohio State paying to not have to play UC in Cincinnati and moving the game back a few years.  When OSU made the decision to force UC's hand and not play the game in Cincinnati I had the scoop and wrote this story (and I'll revisit some of the details in red as I go along.  Here was the story with my editorial notes for the revisit.

Scared Buckeyes Pay Bearcats to Avoid Ass Beating

Here is how it happened:

After Maurice Clarrett shared with the world the crazy cheating that goes on in Columbus the NCAA searched for evidence. Ohio State had become so good at covering up their tracks from years and years of boosters hiding their corruption in clever ways the NCAA was unable to find anything of substance. Under normal circumstances a player’s word about improper benefits would probably be enough, however Maurice Clarrett’s “unique” off the field incidents made him just a tad less trustworthy than O.J. Simpson.  (Since that day OSU has gotten in trouble for a major coverup that lead to Jim Tressel getting dismissed form the University and many player suspensions.)

 

With that in mind the NCAA starting tapping the phones of all people involved with “one of the: Ohio State University Football teams (in this case the Columbus branch). They wanted to hear what they said, hoping to get leads, hoping they would slip up. Courtesy of the fine people at the NCAA, (Not sure Jay Bilas would I agree with my characterization of the NCAA, hell not sure I do either, but pretty sure this was sarcasm) I have managed to piece together the conversations that led to “one of” the Ohio State Universities (the one in Columbus) paying the University of Cincinnati 1 million dollars to move their 2012 meeting from Cincinnati to Columbus. Their hope was to avoid the ass beating that was bound to ensue. I doubt it will work, but here is how everything transpired.  (The 2012 meeting was subsequently pushed back to 2014, hence why the game in question is this year)

A Worried Nancy Zimpher Calls Some Old Friends in Columbus:

Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee: NZ, to what do I owe this great pleasure?

Nancy: Gordo, it’s been too long. Honestly, I hate to call under this kind of circumstance but I have been doing some thinking. You remember my original plan to sabotage UC sports?

Gordon: Yes it’s been working wonders for the basketball program, but you’ve got some trouble brewing in football. Who would have thought that pushing Michigan State to hire Dantonio would have been the end? I know you don’t know much about football but how could you let them get Brian Kelly? Have you been pushing for him to take other jobs?

Nancy: So far I’ve pushed, but nothings come. Nebraska wanted to talk to him among other schools. Brian seems intent on making this team a winner. That is why I am calling. If Brian Kelly is the coach of the University of Cincinnati in 2012 I can conceive of no way the Buckeyes can get out of Cincinnati with a victory. You need to consider calling off the game.  (I guess this worry proved to not matter because BK took the Notre Dame and wasn't here in 2012 as a result.  Still I could understand their concern at the time.)

Gordon: Is it that serious NZ?

Nancy: I would not be telling you if it was not. The UC fans really want this game. They will probably outnumber you by a good amount at Paul Brown Stadium. By that time they will have SEC type speed… I think we both know how Ohio State tends to fair against the SEC.

Gordon: Sure we have had a “small” string of bad luck against that conference, but you cannot believe it will come to this. Nancy, other jobs will come up you have to get Kelly out the door…start taking funs from the athletic department, delay the construction of a practice bubble, just get him out of the way by 2012.

Nancy: Kelly seems to be Bob Huggins 2.0. Everyone who is involved with the university in any way loves him. He owns this town. At the same time there has not been an inaccurate sports illustrated story to start lowering his credibility. I do not think I can beat the guy. Short of him getting arrested he is going to be at UC for a long time.  (Once again this obviously proved incorrect as BK took the Notre Dame job, even taking them to a National Championship game.   BK was the best.)

Gordon: You talked to the NCAA right? There is not a chance he is getting another season. This Bearcat team is a national title contender with Mauk at the QB.

Nancy: We do not have to worry about that. I have been assured that it will be a long, drawn out process, but in the end Ben will not be granted another season. The NCAA figures if they wait a long time, he will not be able to sue, because there is no way he would play this season anyways.

Gordon: The NCAA knows how to handle all of its shit doesn’t it?

Nancy: They are good there is no doubt; maybe they’d give me some advice on how to get Coach Kelly out of here.

Gordon: That is a little risky, NZ. We cannot afford to have our plans revealed to the world. It would really put a black eye on both you and the Ohio State University.

Nancy: I understand, Gordo. Just cancel the game.

A confused Brian Kelly receives a call from Ohio State athletics:

Brian Kelly: Gene, I hear you needed to talk to me over a scheduling issue in 2012. What is that all about?

Gene Smith (OSU Athletic Director): Ohio State can no longer afford to play UC. Honestly, it’s simply a financial thing. We will make more money in a home game.

Brian: Gene, I hear the financial part and I know Ohio State is “constantly” strapped for cash in football, but you had a deal to come play us. UC has played more than our fair share in Columbus. The school understood it benefited them to do so, but part of the deal was for you to come back here again. You have traveled to the little MAC schools in state no problem. Gene, we are going to have to hold you to the contract you signed. I expect a school of “integrity” like Ohio State would stay committed to its word.

Gene: Brian, I am truly sorry, but there is no way we can do it. We just make way more money for games in Columbus, even after whatever buyout we give you and whatever we pay the 1AA School we choose for another guarantee game.

Brian: Gene, if it is finances you are worried about we can split the profit with you. Whatever profits are made down at PBS we’ll give you half. That also avoids you having to pay off another 1AA team for a guarantee game in Columbus. You are sure to come out on top that way.

Gene: Our fans will not be happy. We just need more home games. Our fans will not be able to get tickets like last time. UC fans are going to get all the tickets.

Brian: Gene, I thought this was purely about finances. OK, what if we called it a neutral site game. We split the profits and the ticket distribution 50/50, right down the middle. If we do that the Buckeyes will certainly have at least as many fans as they had last time you came to Cincinnati…probably more.

Gene: I am sorry, Brian. There is just no way we can play this game.

Brian: Gene lets play in Cleveland, or, Detroit, or in a parking lot somewhere. This is a game people want to see. It’s a game that can get national exposure. It would be a game between two BCS schools in the same conference. Let’s look at the states around us: Louisville and Kentucky play, Michigan and Michigan State play, Purdue and Notre Dame play, Tennessee and Vanderbilt play, Illinois and Northwestern play. All of these BCS schools in the same state play each other. It provides great TV games. I know your fans may not be excited for the game now, but if we started playing every year they would look forward to the game. UK did not always want to play Louisville in basketball, but now it is a marquee must see game every year. Our football program is going to be great some day, Gene. Let’s get this game going now, let’s start building the anticipation. Gameday is going to want to be at this game before it is all said and done.

Gene: Brian, we are the Ohio State University. We are not Michigan or Notre Dame. They can play other BCS teams in the state, we are better than the rest of the state and we get to dictate our games.

Brian: Gene, maybe a team like Notre Dame understands the value in promoting a regional non-conference rivalry. It can be a selling point down the road; it creates excitement for the games.

Gene: We are the Ohio State University

Brian: I heard you the first time. You are one of the Ohio State Universities.

Gene: We are the Ohio State University

Brian: Gene, I am going to give you a chance to save face. You do not want to look like you are ducking us and I want to build anticipation for this game. I want there to be pressure to play this game. What if we were to come to OSU to play in 2012? It would be a home game for you, plus you could tell everyone it was purely financial and I’ll stay quiet about all the offers I made you hear today so you could fulfill your contract. I know I could get people all over asking you why OSU ducked UC if they knew the full truth. However, I think when we go up there and play a great game people are going to want to see more. There will be pressure to continue the rivalry. So I am giving you this chance to save face. Play us in Columbus. I will keep quiet. But mark my words…this game will be played annually some day, when OSU is wishing they were the program UC has become.

Gene: Not much of a choice there. I am not sure how I will explain this to the President, but we’ll see.

 

The UC vs. OSU football game scheduled for 2012 was officially moved back to Columbus. Coach Kelly kept his word and kept the entire conversation to himself. But who knows…maybe one day Coach Kelly will be right. Maybe one day people will ask the question: Why do OSU and UC, two teams who consistently win BCS conference championships, not play each other every year? And eventually maybe Kelly will get his wish and OSU will see the value in coming to Cincinnati to get their butts whooped every two years.

Couple things of note at the end...  When I wrote this article UC had yet to win a "BCS Conference Championship."  They won or shared the Big East title 4 of the next 5 years (So my consistently win BCS Conference Championships comment was pretty damn good, eh?).  Of course, subsequently the Big East and BCS collapsed and UC was left on the outside of the new system, hoping to get back into a top flight conference and continue their recent tradition of Conference Championships.  

I think it is important to remember that this game should absolutely be being played at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati.  OSU backed out of their end of the contract claiming financial reasons, at a University Athletic Department that has a cashflow similiar to Scrooge McDuck.  They were scared to come down here.  Now lets see the Bearcats go up there and get the job done!

Cincinnati Football Sweep

It’s always a great weekend when both the Bearcats and Bengals win.  There have been two weeks so far when both have played and both weekends we have enjoyed the Cincinnati football sweep.  I have a feeling we will get to enjoy a bunch of those weekends this season.  Both teams got there completely different ways.  The Bearcats struggled for most the game and let an inferior team (albeit one with a good gameplan that played well) hang around, while the Bengals dominated from the get go.  So this morning I ask, what do we know about both teams through this weekend?

Bengals:

I’m starting with the Bengals today, because it is hard not to feel amazing about how they have been playing so far.  The Bengals did to the Titans what they did to the Falcons, and what they could have done to the Ravens had they capitalized on an early drive or two with a TD instead of a Field Goal… they dominated and never looked back.  The Bengals have looked dominant on defense, have moved the ball on offense and other than some Nugent missed field goals have been very good on special teams.  Through 3 weeks it is very hard to find a real weakness on this team.

What has been most impressive about the offense is that it lost Eifert early after he seemed to be a huge focal point of the offense, had already lost Marvin Jones and had a banged up A.J. Green the last two weeks (who played very little as a result in week 2).  Despite these issues, the offense has ground out points with a commitment to the running game, diverse play calling and some timely big plays.  While I’d like to see the Bengals yards per carry average go up, Gio and Hill have ran the ball effectively enough, particularly is short yardage and goal line situations.  The ability to punch the ball in the endzone has been incredibly encouraging when the Bengals get close.  The clear commitment to the running game has been important, because the Bengals inability to run the ball in the playoffs really put everything on Dalton last season.  Ideally that won’t be the case this time around.

Andy Dalton has been solid, but has not been asked to do that much.  When the Bengals got down late to the Ravens in week one, Dalton delivered an absolute strike, hitting A.J. Green in stride for a long TD.  That was a huge throw and got the Bengals off to a great start this season.  Dalton has also been much better against pressure so far this season, an area where he had to improve.  His two best plays against Atlanta both came against pressure.  When Atlanta brought the house and played cover-0, Dalton stood tall in the pocket and made the right read throwing to Sanu over the middle.  His pass hit Sanu perfectly in stride in a spot where a defender, in pretty good coverage, couldn’t break up the pass and Sanu took it to the house.  On another play in the game things broke down in the pocket, Andy moved in the pocket buying enough time for Gio to slip out from his pass protection and become a receiver.  Dalton delivered it to Gio and Gio ran for a huge game.  These are the types of plays Dalton has struggled to make in the past and hopefully a sign of improvement to come. 

The biggest question for the offense so far, is only a question because the Bengals have not had to answer it:  Can the Bengals throw the ball around when they need to?  If the run is not working and the Bengals need to get some points, can they move the ball through the air?  So far this year, the Bengals have barely been behind and have been able to dictate to other teams when they throw the ball.  Last year the Bengals showed an ability to sling it around.  The problem was against pressure Dalton would be forced into some bad decisions.  There is no reason to believe the Bengals don’t have the weapons to do that this year and hopefully the bad decisions will be kept to a minimum if the situation arises where the Bengals have to pass.

The defense has been brilliant through three weeks.  The secondary is deep and makes life hellacious for opposing quarterbacks.  Matt Ryan has looked like an MVP candidate in his two non-Bengal starts, but could not solve this Bengals secondary.  Newman, Jones and Hall seemingly never get beat and have been incredibly sure tacklers both when receivers make catches and in the running game.  Safety play is the best I remember it for the Bengals.  Reggie Nelson is as good as ever and George Iloka has taken a huge step forward this season.  The ability of the secondary has allowed the Bengals to take some chances sending pressure and when they do it seems like they always get to the quarterback.  I’d be interested in seeing numbers on the Bengals’ opponents’ success when the Bengals send 5 or more people at the QB.  I can remember very few positive plays. 

Nothing I have seen has made me think the Bengals can’t continue to be this dominant all season.  In fact, there is one area where I believe a little improvement will jump the Bengals’ defense up another level (yea that seems hard to believe).  The Bengals have been really good blitzing this year, but other than Dunlap have struggled to get pressure when they only send four.  This seems to me to be an area the Bengals have the talent to do better at and would make the defense that much more scary.  The biggest area where the Bengals could jump is if Atkins becomes the dominant force he was two years ago.  It is not surprising that he has not been as dominating back from injury, but it’s not like he has played poorly either.  If he can play himself back into that dominant force, the Bengals pass rush becomes even stronger.  Additionally, Hunt has been very noticeable in the limited plays he is on the field.  I think he can be an excellent situational pass rusher.  I imagine quarterbacks shuttering at a third and long defensive line with Dunlap, Gilberry, Hunt and full strength Atkins.  The Bengals defense has been dominant, I believe it can be even better.

Combine all that with solid special teams units and the Bengals may very well be the best team in the NFL right now.  I thought this was a 12-4 team at the beginning of the year and nothing has happened to make me believe that is not the case.  The AFC North, at least so far, appears to be very good, but nothing I have seen makes me think the Bengals aren’t the class of the league.  Bengals get a bye week to get healthy before a big trip to a New England team that looks vulnerable.  Brady is great, but I have a hard time believing the New England receivers will get open against the Bengals secondary.  Win that game and the league will really take notice.  Great season so far, cannot wait to watch more. 

Bearcats:

Things for the Bearcats have not been quite as positive.  The offense looked brilliant in week 1 and then waffled around for much of week 2.  The defense played one good half in week 1 and then looked pretty vulnerable after that.  Special teams have been a mixed bag.  I have seen reason for optimism and plenty of reasons for concern.  I do think the 2 week delay starting the season hurt the Bearcats, particularly defensively, but I would hope that the next few games that becomes a nonissue.  From the first two weeks it is very hard to judge what direction the season is heading.  The Bearcats will likely win at least 8 because they are just more talented than most teams on their schedule, but to have a truly special season the offense can’t have many weeks like last week and the defense must improve drastically. 

The good news, the offense is supremely talented and has the chance to be one of the best in UC history.  Most fans understood that the Bearcat’s biggest strength coming into the season was their deep and talented wide receiving core, and through two games nothing has changed that perception.  The Toledo game, particularly the first half, showed what this offense can look like when clicking on all cylinders.  The wide receivers were getting separation and Kiel was delivering the ball right on the money.  It was beautiful to watch.  In the Miami game, there were still open receivers but Kiel missed on some passes, there were a couple drops and Kiel threw to the wrong guy several times.  It was clear from my view of the game that the offense still was capable, but there were just too many mistakes and Kiel was not doing a great job going through his progressions. 

I ultimately think the offense is going to be fine.  I think the offense is going to have some huge games and is an offense that certainly can take advantage of what has been Ohio State’s biggest weakness over the last year plus (its secondary… more on that later this week).  Of course, there will likely be growing pains as Kiel is a first year starter, but with so many weapons I think the offense is going to do a ton of good things throughout the season.  The defense, however, is a bigger question mark. 

I like much of the talent on defense.  I think there are some potential playmakers in the secondary and it has been nice to see Jeff Luc making plays all over the field.  The pass rush improved against Miami as did the run defense (other than a few plays).  However, the defense still seems to leave too many holes when it plays zone.  Most of them simply seem to be from miscommunication or not understanding where they are supposed to be.  I would not be surprised to see more man concepts against OSU to make their QB beat them without finding just wide open receivers. 

One reason for the big holes we’ve seen in the secondary could be the change of coaching staffs.  I’m not sure how much of a change it has been in the secondary, based on what they are asked to do and how the defense is being run this year.  My hope is this is an area where the defense just needed some live games to get out the kinks.  What I have liked is that in both games when the defense absolutely needed stops it got more aggressive and got the stops it needed.  In the second game, I also think the defense was largely good against the run (minus 2 or 3 plays and a couple scrambles).  Of course it is likely Toledo is the 2^nd best running team UC will see all season (behind OSU) while Miami has a lot of issues on offense, so that could largely be a product of matchup.

The hope for UC fans is that those first two games were largely the Bearcats learning a new system and generally just working on their base defense as much as possible.  Hopefully that experience will help heading into a huge stretch of three games.  The Ohio State game is a great opportunity, Memphis looks much improved (and UC needs to win that for Conference Title Purposes) and a trip to Miami (Fl) is another chance at a P5 foe.  All these games will provide great challenges and opportunities for the Bearcats.  Realistically 2-1 would set up the Bearcats well, though obviously I am hoping for better.  Though I’ve seen plenty of reasons for concern, I also think the talent is there for a special season.  The offense can be exceptional and if the defense can hold up its end the next few games can be very exciting.