Monday, March 9, 2015

Bracket Projection March 9, 2015

Regular season college basketball is over and it appears UC is a lock for the NCAA tournament.  As we head into the conference tournaments I have UC as an 8 seed, but could see them as high as a 6 if they make the finals of or win the AAC conference tournament.  My projected bracket includes three teams that are already in (Belmont, Costal Carolina and Northern Iowa) and some very close calls at the bubble line.  I have Ohio State lower than most bracket projections, but they have the kind of resume the committee usually penalizes teams for (weak non-conference schedule, few road wins and few top 50 RPI wins).  I think their ability to avoid bad losses gets them in but I don’t think it’s clear.  Most brackets I’ve seen have BYU in, but I still don’t think 3 RPI top 100 wins and only 1 win over a tournament team is enough.  I think they need to win the WCC tournament. 

Top 6 Seeds in Order (1 seed contenders):
Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin

Last 8 in, in order (teams that could conceivably still not make it):
Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Colorado State, Davidson, Temple, Old Dominion, Texas

Last 8 out (Teams alive for at large bids): 
Illinois, Tulsa, BYU, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, UCLA, Pitt, Stanford

The Bracket (Predicted Conference Winner in Italics, Conference Champion in Bold):

1. Kentucky
16.  Albana / UC Davis

8. Xavier
9. Oklahoma State

4. Notre Dame
13. Belmont

5.  West Virginia
12. Temple / Old Dominion

3.  Iowa State
14. South Dakota State

6. Wichita State
11. Indiana

2. Wisconsin
15. Valparaiso

7. St Johns
10. Oregon

1. Duke
16. St Francis

8. Purdue
9. VCU

4. Baylor
13. NC Central

5. Arkansas
12. Louisiana Tech

3. Utah
14. Stephen F. Austin

6. SMU
11.  Ohio State

2. Kansas
15. North Florida

7. Michigan State
10. Georgia

1. Virginia
16. Texas Southern / Sacramento State

8. Cincinnati
9. LSU

4. Louisville
13.  Harvard

5. Butler
12. Iona

3. Maryland
14. Bucknell

6. Providence
11. Davidson / Texas

2. Gonzaga
15. William & Mary

7. Iowa
10. NC State

1. Villanova
16. Georgia Southern

8. Dayton
9. Boise State

4. Northern Iowa
13. Central Michigan

5. North Carolina
12. Wofford

3. Oklahoma
14. New Mexico State

6. Georgetown
11. Colorado State

2. Arizona
15. Coastal Carolina

7. San Diego State
10. Ole Miss

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