Ranking the Bubble
Every year I
rank the bubble. I try to start right
after the last team I believe is 100% in no matter what happens. Most the teams towards the top of my bubble
rankings will likely be in as well. My
bubble rankings start with Iowa who would be the third 8 seed in my
bracket. A few quick thoughts before you
check my rankings:
1.
Everyone, every single year talks about how weak
the bubble is and it’s mostly incorrect.
The bubble is just generally a lot of flawed teams who have various
issues with their resumes. This year
that holds true, but I will say that I did not feel even decent about anyone I
put in the final spot. That final spot
was Texas A&M whose resume is incredibly lacking as they have only beaten
one NCAA at large bid contender all season long. Of course I felt worse about every team
behind them who all had glaring weaknesses.
Remember, the season is not yet over and by the tournament I would bet a
team or two will step up and have a resume at that level.
2.
I also feel better and better that UC is in and
will be in unless they lose 2 of their next 3.
The teams below them, particularly the teams from Colorado State on down
don’t have resumes anywhere near their ballpark. Most have just as many or more bad losses and
none of them have near the caliber of wins as Cincinnati has. UC could certainly play their way out if
things go wrong, but win 2 of their next 3 and I’d be shocked if they
missed. I’d be surprised if they were
even in the play in game.
3.
I also listed a couple of teams at the very end
who aren’t that close to the bubble right now but could get hot in their
conference tournaments and play their way in.
I didn’t feel like doing to full breakdown of their resumes, but those
teams are not dead if they start playing really well.
4.
Last Four in- Colorado State, Temple, Old
Dominion, Texas A&M
5.
First Four Out- Tulsa, Pittsburgh, BYU Davidson
And now, my
ranking of the bubble teams from best resume to weakest:
Iowa- The biggest thing Iowa has going for them is
two RPI top 15 wins (against teams that will both likely be top 5 seeds in UNC
and Maryland). These are high level
wins. Overall, Iowa is 4-6 against the RPI top 50
including a sweep of Bubble team Ohio State.
Two of those losses are to a loaded Wisconsin team, which won’t be held
against the Hawkeyes. This is a team
that really should be dancing. Also,
unlike a lot of these bubble teams, Iowa has mostly avoided bad losses.
Oklahoma
State- They are under .500 in conference play and if they lose at WVU they are
going to finish that way. They haven’t won since February 7 when they beat
Kansas. Two of their losses in February
were to Texas Tech and TCU (the two worst teams in the Big 12). That said, their wins are so much better than
the rest of the bubble that I find it hard to believe they won’t be
dancing. They are 3-7 vs. the RPI top 25
and 3-0 vs. RPI 26-50. That’s a lot of
good on the resume. They have a win over
Kansas and swept Baylor (probably the two best teams in the Big 12), they also
beat Tulsa and swept Texas. Despite
their slump down the stretch, I think beating TCU this week will be enough.
LSU- This is
another team I think will be dancing.
They’ve simply already done more than most of the teams on the
bubble. LSU is 4-4 against the RPI top
50 and 7-1 against RPI 51-100. 11 RPI
top 100 wins is a number the committee likes.
They have wins over WVU and Georgia and they also swept Bubble team Ole
Miss. Really the only thing holding LSU
back is 3 losses to teams below 100 in the RPI.
However, (and this will be a theme as I rank the bubble) good wins trump
bad losses when the committee is making its final decision.
Purdue-
Purdue is a great example of why your actual RPI number is pretty meaningless
when it comes to the selection committee.
They sit at 52 in the RPI, but when you start digging into what they
have actually accomplished their resume starts to look really good. Purdue is 5-4 against the RPI top 50. They have wins over OSU, BYU, Indiana (2x)
and Iowa. They also beat bubble team NC
State who is just outside the RPI top 50.
Additionally, Purdue is 11-5 in the Big 10. Conference records aren’t really a selection
criteria, but Purdue’s strong finish in a good conference won’t hurt. Purdue had a couple bad losses early in the
year and played some really bad teams in the nonconference. That will hold them back some, but I think
they are pretty safe.
Boise State-
The Mountain West always seems to be a league that plays the RPI game well and
Boise State is no exception. They have a
very inflated RPI, but to their credit they have taken care of business against
the top of the league and I think that will ultimately get them in. Boise swept SD State and beat Colorado State
for their 3 top 50 wins against 2 losses.
They lost to bubble team NC State and have 4 losses against teams 96 and
below in the RPI. They’ll may ultimately
be near the cutline, but I think they will be on the right side of it.
Dayton- They
only have played 5 top 50 RPI games (they are 3-2) and 5 51-100 RPI games (they
are 2-3). They’ve done most their damage against teams below 100 in the
RPI. That said they have generally avoided
bad losses. They only have lost 6 games
overall and may win a fairly solid league.
The win at VCU was the win that could get them over the top. Wins over Bubble teams Ole Miss and Texas A
& M should help.
Xavier- They have a lot of losses, including some bad
ones (RPI 107 Long Beach State, RPI 131 Creighton, RPI 142 Auburn and RPI 166
Depaul). These losses have put missing
the tournament in play despite the fact that there is a lot to like in Xavier’s
resume. Xavier is 4-2 against the RPI
top 25 and 1-2 against RPI 26-50. They
have 9 RPI top 100 wins. Ultimately when
you get down to those teams on the Bubble who you played and who you beat
matters more than anything and X has played a tough schedule and beaten good
teams. Unless they lose to Creighton a
second time and early in the Big East tournament, I cannot see them being left
out of the tournament.
Ole Miss- A
couple of weeks ago I would have told you that Ole Miss was close to a lock,
but they have not picked up many big wins lately and have played themselves
squarely on the bubble. What helps Ole
Miss is they have 4 top 50 RPI wins and 3 of those wins were away from home. They beat Cincinnati (neutral), Arkansas
(away), Oregon (away) and Texas A&M (home).
They were swept by Georgia as well as bubble team LSU and lost to bubble
team Dayton. They still have probably
done more than most of the teams near the cutline, but losing their last 2
games could put them in danger.
Ohio
State- The Buckeyes are almost certainly
going to be a tournament team, but their resume really isn’t that
impressive. First the good. Ohio State has a very good win against
Maryland and a pretty good win over Indiana (Both at home). These are OSU’s only wins against the RPI top
50 (to go against 6 losses). OSU also
has wins over bubble teams Purdue and Illinois (also both at home). The Buckeyes just have not been able to beat
anyone away from home this year. In
fact, they are 3-7 outside of their own arena.
That’s not good and it’s something the committee has really penalized
teams for in the past. The Buckeyes were
also swept by Bubble team Iowa. The good
news for the Buckeyes is they have avoided bad losses and that should be enough
to get them in, but they could be seeded lower than many think.
Cincinnati- Cincinnati has a few things really going for
them on their resume. The first is they
have 3 RPI top 25 wins. Very few teams, much
less teams on the bubble, can claim that.
They are also 4-4 against the RPI top 50. What hurts somewhat is they only have 6 RPI
top 100 wins so though they have done well against top 100 caliber teams, they
have not played that many of them. What
also hurts is the 3 bad losses. As I’ve
stated many times, when it comes to bubble teams good wins almost always trump
bad losses. UC has wins over SMU (2x)
and SD State, they have wins over bubble teams Temple and NC State and one over
UConn who is inching closer to the bubble. Also the committee cares a ton about the
schedule you can control (IE nonconference SOS) and UC has a top 25
nonconference SOS. That will score them
points with the committee. If UC can
sweep the last two that will be two more top 100 wins and they’ll be an
absolute lock. I still think a split is
probably good enough, because when you compare them to the rest of the bubble
they have just done more against good teams.
That said, avoiding a bad loss in the conference tournament would be
imperative at that point.
North
Carolina State- This is another team that has done a lot of good, but hurt
themselves with some recent bad losses.
I think their resume will ultimately be good enough, but at least a
split in their final 2 games and win in the ACC tournament would make them feel
better. NC State is 5-6 against the RPI
top 50. That includes 3 great wins over
Duke (home), UNC (away) and Louisville (away).
They also have wins over bubble teams Boise State and Pitt. They have losses to bubble teams Cincinnati,
Purdue and Miami (FL). They also have
bad losses in the last month to Wake and Boston College. In the end their good should far outweigh the
bad and the high loss total is largely due to playing what right now ranks as
the #5 schedule in the country.
Oregon- This
is a team that has come on strong and looks like the clear 3rd best
team in the PAC 12, but their resume is also not nearly as good as you would
expect it to be. Oregon is only 1-4
against the RPI top 50 with that one win coming at home against Utah. However, Oregon has been really good against
team 51-100 going 8-2. Those 9 top 100
wins should matter selection Sunday despite the lack of top 50 wins. Among those 8 wins are wins against bubble
teams UCLA (home), Stanford and Illinois.
Oregon also has losses to bubble teams Ole Miss and UCLA (away). I think they get in, but they are not a slam
dunk.
Illinois- They are only .500 in the Big 10 and sit in 8th
place, but they have some very good wins and have avoided bad losses. If the tournament started today I think they’d
have to be in the field. They have two
top 10 RPI wins over Baylor (9) and Maryland (10). Overall they are 3-7 against the RPI top
50. They also have a win against bubble
team Purdue who is just outside the RPI top 50.
They have losses to bubble teams Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Miami
(FL).
Colorado
State- This is another bubble team with an inflated RPI that has just avoided
bad losses. They only have 2 RPI top 50
wins (Both at home against SD State and Boise State) to go with 2 RPI top 50
losses (on the road against the same teams).
This means they did nothing in the non-conference schedule and nothing
away from home. They scheduled well
enough that their nonconference SOS isn’t bad, but there is also nothing of
significance on it. This is going to be
a team on the cutline unless they win the Mountain West tournament.
Temple- Temple
is a very interesting case, because it is hard to see how the committee will
handle the games they played missing 2 of their key guys. Temple is only 2-7 against the RPI top 50,
but one of those wins was against Kansas (a probable 2 or 3 seed). Additionally, Temple has wins over bubble
team Cincinnati and fringe bubble team Louisiana Tech (and a win over UConn who
could be a Bubble team). However, Temple
only has 5 RPI top 100 wins overall. I
think Temple is likely going to be around the cutline, unless they reach the
conference tournament finals. That said,
there is enough good that they could slip in amongst the middling bubble
contenders.
Old
Dominion- I have not seen much talk
about this team as a bubble contender, but they are the type of team the committee
has looked to among the last few teams in.
It hurts that they are only 3rd in CUSA but they have the
best tournament resume among those teams and that matters more than where you
finish (unless there is a really dominant team in conference play). Old Dominion has only played 2 RPI top 50
teams, but they won both games beating VCU (when VCU was at full strength) and
LSU. Old Dominion is 5-2 overall against
the RPI top 100. They also have a
nonconference SOS of 42 (something the committee loves to reward for small
conference bubble teams). However, all 6
of their losses are to teams below 75 in the RPI and 4 of those are to teams
below 100. It’s a very mixed bag, but
could be enough to get a bid.
Texas
A&M- They are only 2-5 against the RPI top 50. Those 2 wins are a sweep of bubble team
LSU. They have losses to bubble teams
Dayton and Ole Miss. They are 5-2
against teams 51-100 in the RPI, but the problem is none of those wins are
against teams fighting for tournament bids.
Essentially they have only beaten 1 tournament caliber team all season
(though they did beat them twice). To
their credit they have no bad losses. Though they are my last team in right now, I
don’t think that is ultimately going to be enough, despite the fact that they
are likely to finish in the top 3 in the SEC.
If they can beat any tournament
caliber teams in the SEC tournament then maybe their high finish in the
standings and high RPI will be enough.
Tulsa- Their resume is a slightly lesser version of
Texas A & M’s at this point. Like
A&M they only have 2 wins against the RPI top 50 and those wins came
against 1 team (a Sweep of Temple). They are 2-4 against the RPI top 50, but 3-1
against the RPI 51-100. Of course none
of those 3 wins are against NCAA tournament caliber teams (unless you include
UConn who could sneak on the bubble with a couple more wins). Also
their RPI numbers don’t factor in their bad loss to a D2 team. A win against Cincinnati this week may get
them above the cutline for the time being, but they wouldn’t feel safe without
a couple more wins over tournament caliber teams.
Pitt- They
have two great wins over Notre Dame and UNC.
That’s enough to get them close.
They also swept Syracuse who would be on the bubble if they were
eligible for the tournament. That is
pretty much all over the good for Pitt.
They are only 2-6 against the RPI top 50 and only have 5 total wins
against the RPI top 100. They have 3 bad
losses to sub 100 RPI teams. I have them
ahead of BYU because 2 great wins is better than 1, but like BYU the rest of
their resume is lacking. If Pitt wins
their last two games (including one against bubble Miami) that may be enough to
get them just on the good side of the cutline and there are always chances in
the ACC tournament.
BYU- They
got one of the best wins of any team in the country this year when they went to
Spokane and beat Gonzaga. Their problem
is that is pretty much it on their resume.
It’s their only top 50 RPI win against 3 losses. They have a decent win over bubble team
Stanford, though Stanford is likely on the wrong side of the bubble. They have another decent win over St Mary’s
but that team likely isn’t making the tournament and they also lost to
them. They have a bubble loss to
Purdue. BYU also has 3 losses to teams below
100 in the RPI. The question becomes,
how much does the committee care about 1 great win? I can’t see this team getting an at large bid
without beating Gonzaga again but if they do that they will earn the league’s
autobid anyways.
Davidson-
They have 1 RPI top 50 win (to go against 3 losses) and despite being 5-1
against RPI 51-100 they haven’t really beaten any other NCAA tournament caliber
teams. They get a chance against VCU
this week, which would be huge for their tournament chances. I think they need to beat 2 NCAA tournament
caliber team before Selection Sunday to have a chance (whether VCU next week or
A10 tournament or some combination).
Texas- They are 2-11 against the RPI top 50. Playing 11 top 50 games is a brutal schedule,
but you really have to get more than 2 to be a tournament team. Still, 8 of those losses are to teams in the
RPI top 17. So really when you look at
their resume they are 2-3 against teams ranked 18-50 and 3-1 against teams
ranked 51-100. Their worst loss was to
bubble team Stanford who ranks 56 in the RPI.
They also were swept by Bubble team Oklahoma State. Texas is the kind of team with a lot of losses
the committee might let it, if they can get a couple more top 50 RPI wins.
Miami (FL)-
This is the lowest ranked team by RPI I have in my rankings. They wouldn’t be in today, but have enough
quality wins now that they could play their way in. One major issue is they are only 1-6 against
the RPI top 50 (of course all of those games are against teams in the RPI top
27 and the one win is at Duke). Miami
also has a win over bubble team NC State and bubble team Illinois. They also have a win over Syracuse who would
be on the bubble if they were eligible.
Hurting Miami even more than their record against the RPI top 50, is
their 4 losses to teams below 100 in the RPI.
They have work to do but they are not out.
UCLA- Like Texas,
UCLA has played a lot of really top flight teams. They have 6 losses to teams in the top 15 of
the RPI. Unlike Texas, UCLA has some bad
losses (5 to teams 83 and below in the RPI).
Because of those bad losses, the 2-7 record against the RPI top 50 is
not enough. In addition to those 2 top
50 wins, UCLA swept bubble team Stanford (which is why they are ahead of them
in my rankings).
Stanford- They have 1 win over RPI top 50 teams and
that is against Texas who is likely not in the tournament right now. Their next best win is against UConn who wouldn’t
be in the tournament right now. They
also have 3 losses outside of the RPI top 100.
They haven’t done enough.
Longshots
who can still play their way back to the bubble: UConn, Minnesota, Clemson, Seton Hall, Kansas
State
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