My Response to Local Media Anti-Huggs Crusade (AKA Why You Can Support Mick AND Appreciate the Huggs Years)

The UC fans have moved on but the local media hasn’t.  Every year at some time or another it seems the local media needs to explain why Huggins didn’t actually have great years (as if we all weren’t around) and why that means the Bearcat fans should support Mick.  To most fans, this is not an either or scenario.  The smart fans get that program is in a different situation and are evaluating Mick’s performance mostly independent of what was achieved under Huggins.  We want Mick to get the program to that level again and even beyond, but we are not grading Mick against Huggins.  My support of Mick Cronin and his Bearcat program is not dependent on tearing down the accomplishments of the Huggins era.  I know many Bearcat fans that feel this way. 

The media using Huggs’ tournament losses to justify why UC should stick with Mick Cronin is idiotic because it misses what makes Mick the right guy for Cincinnati.  He’s not right because he can lose in the second round too…he’s right because of the stability he brought the program and the direction he is moving the program.  To be perfectly frank to date Mick hasn’t accomplished anything near what Huggins accomplished at UC, but that doesn’t mean he won’t or cannot.  The comparison with what Huggins accomplished to what Mick has so far is idiotic because Huggs is so far ahead by those measures, but those measures fail to appreciate the situations and context.

Here’s how I would rank every Bearcat season by accomplishments of the team since Huggins came to UC (I bolded the seasons where Mick is coach):

The Great Seasons: 

1992- Final Four, Regular Season Champion, Conference Tournament Champion, Four Seed in the Tournament.

2000- Ranked Number 1 most the season, Undefeated Regular Season Conference Champions, 1^st in the RPI, 10-2 against the RPI top 50, 19-3 against the RPI top 100… just a dominating season.  2 seed in the tournament

1993- Elite Eight, Conference Regular Season Champions, Conference Tournament Champions, 2 seed in the tournament

1996- Elite Eight, Conference Regular Seasons Champions, Conference Tournament Champions, 2 seed,

2002- Conference Regular Season Champions, Conference Tournament Champions, 1 seed, RPI #3, 8-2 v. RPI top 50, 17-3 v. RPI top 100. #2 kenpom adjusted efficiency (first year he kept that stat)

The Very Good Seasons:

1999-  Only 6 losses, Regular season champions, 3 seed in the tournament, won great Alaskan Shootout over Historically great Duke team.  Made round of 32.  8-3 vs. RPI top 50, 12-4 over top 100.

2012-  Clearly Mick’s best overall season despite a disappointing start.  4^th in a loaded Big East, Conference tournament finals, sweet 16.  8-6 v. RPI top 50, 11-8 vs. top 100.  Only 31 kenpom but they were a different team once they went small.

1998- Regular Season and Tournament Conference Champions, 2 seed in tournament. 9^th in Final AP Poll.

1997-  Preseason number 1, Regular Season Conference Champions, 3 seed in tournament.  Final AP Rank of 10.  Disappointing overall season, but still a really good season.

2014-  Tied for regular season conference title with defending champs ahead of eventual champs, 5 seed in tournament, 6-6 v. RPI top 50, 10-7 v. RPI top 100, tourney results disappointing, but that team ahead a really good year.  Only 27 in kenpom, but top 10 in adjusted defense.

2017-  16-2 conference record, 6 seed, 3-4 RPI top 50, 6-5 v. top 100, no bad losses, conference tournament finals, 2^nd round NCAA tournament.  22 kenpom.  Top 15 in Polls on multiple occasions. 

2004-  Regular Season and Tournament Champions, 4 seed in tournament, 7-6 v. RPI top 50, 12-6 v. top 100, no bad losses.  17 in kenpom.   Maybe should be higher but hard to get 2^nd round dismantling by Illinois out of head.

The Good Seasons:

2001- Regular Season Conference Champion, Sweet 16, 5 seed in tournament, 2-4 Vs. RPI top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI top 100.  4 losses outside RPI top 100.  Nice break in tournament, but not a great overall season.

2011- 6^th in loaded Big East, 2^nd round of NCAA tournament, team that put UC back in the NCAAs, 21^st in kenpom.  7-9 v. RPI top 50, 8-9 v. RPI top 100, no bad losses. 

2005- 2^nd round NCAA tournament, 4-5 vs. RPI top 50, 9-6 v. top 100.  7 seed in NCAA tournament.  19 kenpom. 

2015-  Round of 32, 6-4 v. RPI top 50, 9-8 v. top 100.  Only 43 kenpom.  8 seed.

2016-  First round exit, 5-5 v. top 50, only 7-10.  32 kenpom.  9 seed.  Team seemed close, but as we know lost a ton of close games. 

2013-  First Round Exit, 5-10 vs. top 50, 9-12 v. top 100.  40 kenpom, 10 seed.

1995- Conference Tournament Champion, 7 seed, 2^nd round exit. 

1994-  Conference tournament champions, First round exit, 8 seed.  25 in final AP poll.

2006 (AK’s year)-  NIT quarterfinals (lost when players suspended), 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 11-11 v. top 100, 44 kenpom. 

2003-  First Round Exit, only 17 wins (against 12 losses), 3-6 v. RPI top 50, 8-9 v. top 100,  36 kenpom

OK Seasons:

2010- NIT second round, 3-11 RPI top 50, 8-16 RPI top 100, kenpom 68, great start, team not quite ready.

1991-  NIT, 18 wins, 10.62 Strength of Record According to Sports Reference

1990-  Huggs first year, NIT, 20 wins, 7.19 SOR According to Sports Reference.

2009- 1-9 v. RPI top 50, 7-12 v. RPI top 100.  86 kenpom

The Rebuild-

2008

2007

Of note I would rank 5 Huggs seasons as great.  Mick has yet to break through but I am optimistic he does next season.  All of Mick’s seasons since he got back to the tournament have been good and very good.  Like Huggins he’s consistently kept UC in position to make the tournament and has avoided real down years.  Unlike Huggins he has yet to break through for those next level quite season.  My hope is that is coming and ultimately would love to see him achieve even beyond where Huggins had the program. 

Mick Cronin and Bob Huggins inherited two different programs in two different situations in two different times with many different sets of obstacles.  The decimation of the program that took place before Mick arrived has been well documented and I do not know a single Bearcat fan that doesn’t appreciate the job Mick did resurrecting the program from the ashes, back to the NIT in year 4 and the NCAA in year 5…where UC has been each of the last 7 years.  He brought stability to the program, made it nationally relevant again and brought the kind of sustained, consistent success few other programs have.  I believe UC is one of 8 programs to make the NCAA tournament the last 7 seasons.  That means something.

Most of those who criticize Mick do so because they believe this program needs to get to the next level.  I tend to agree with those people that this cannot be it.  While UC has been consistently good to very good under Mick, he has not had that breakthrough great season.  I think it is coming next year for many reasons and believe he will start delivering those type of seasons on a semi-regular basis, but that isn’t an unfair or unreasonable expectation. 

Why hasn’t that season come yet?  Well at least in the first few years Cronin was severely handicapped by the programs decimation.  However, we are long past that now.  Mick just completed year 11 on the Bearcat bench.  That’s a long time.  That is no longer an acceptable excuse for why we cannot break through.  However, I would argue there are reasons to this point Mick has not quite made the jump from strong, consistent program, to one capable of being a contender from time to time.  Whether it was facility issues, conference instability or a couple missed recruiting classes after SKs class, UC just hasn’t quite gotten over the hump we all want to seem them get to. 

However, this has been slowly changing.  The 2015-2016 showed promise despite losing a ton of heartbreakers.  The underclassman were clearly players.  The team continued with UC’s trademark defense but began to show much improved offense.  That trend continued this season as UC hung around as a borderline top 20 type team by most metrics all season.  They were better in conference, had better out of conference wins, a better offense, a similar defense and advanced further in the tournament.  They finished 22 in kenpom efficiency and earned the 22^nd spot on the committee’s bracket.  They were good, but not good enough to avoid a tough second round matchup and went home. 

That 22 was 10 spots higher than the prior season and similar improvement next season would finally make UC a legit final four contender and likely earn them a top 4 protected seed.  That would be a big step for the program and one I am confident Mick Cronin will make.  The hardest thing for fans to appreciate is consistent success at the same level.  Fans always want more.  

Mick’s achievement of sustained success is probably undervalued by many, but it ultimately cannot be the peak for UC basketball and I have plenty of confidence based on recent history that it will not be.  I firmly believe Mick Cronin is the right guy to lead this Bearcat program forward and believe next year’s team will be well positioned for a tournament run.  In a one game and out tournament things can happen, the key is putting together great teams that are real contenders…  eventually you will break through.   Next year could very like be that first great Mick team and I am happy the administration has had the confidence to stick with him as we move towards making that break through and the clear appreciation for what he has already done.

Stopping Whining My Fellow Bearcat Fans: And Other Bracket Observations

Every year I have to read some UC fan conspiracy theories about how and why UC is getting screwed by the committee.  Sorry guys, they just aren’t.  There are plenty of issues I have with how the committee seeds teams.  They need to get rid of the RPI teamsheets and use advanced metric based teamsheets (like Sagarin, Kenpom or even BPI).  When they breakdown top 25,50,100 wins they need to adjust for home road.  Sagarin and Kenpom already have systems that do this… they’ll tell you that a road win over team X is the equivalent of a home win over team Y.  The teamsheets should include these adjustments.  However, UC was not a victim of this.  UC finished 22 in kenpom and they are 22 on the S-Curve….  By some arguments they are one of the teams the committee got exactly right.  I had UC as a 5 seed.  I think it would have been reasonable to have them there, but their resume was a 5 or 6 seed based on how the committee generally seeds teams.  This was not crazy.

The other big complaint I am getting is that UC was shipped out west.  UC is a 6 seed…which means they are not a protected seed.  When you are not a high seed you run the risk of being shipped to an unfavorable location.  Hell even 4 seeds can run this risk if the committee runs out of favorable pods.  Two of the 3 seeds were Oregon and UCLA.  Those teams were placed in Sacramento.  Because of this two 6 seeds were automatically going to be placed in Sacramento.  Additionally, Mick and many other coaches have made it clear that they think teams that have to play on selection Sunday should not have to play until Friday in the tournament.  If the committee is attempting to do that when possible then they had to avoid placing Cincinnati in Orlando. 

UC playing Friday left two spots in Sacramento and a spot in Tulsa open.  The Tulsa spot was the logical spot for SMU as the top 6 seed and because it was very close.  Hence UC ended up in Sacramento.  It’s not some vast conspiracy against UC, it’s the reality of how the committee puts the tournament field together.  UC still gets to play a team they should beat and if they win likely a UCLA team that is flashy and great offensively, but really struggles to defend.  UCLA is the kind of team UC should be able to score inside against.  UC’s ability to make the other team play half court is another big advantage.  If I am UCLA, I am not happy with having to play UC.  UCLA is only a couple spots above UC in most the advanced metrics.  It will be difficult for UC to make the Sweet 16, but this is not some awful draw where they have no shot. 

A look at the rest of the Bracket:

Committee did a mostly fair job, despite the stupid metrics they use.  I nailed the field exactly, nailed the 1 seeds and was able to predict 63 of 68 teams within one seed line. 

One Seeds:  I nailed all four of these and think they were the right choices.  UNC over Duke seems to have created the most controversy, but the committee always likes to reward great regular seasons over a great week in the conference tournament.  I think UNC’s consistency earned them this spot.  I think North Carolina has the easiest path the elite eight of any 1 seed.  They have by my calculation the weakest 5 and the weakest4.  Neither second round matchup is particularly scary.  I think Gonzaga is best team and has a reasonably good path as well.  For that reason I like Gonzaga v. UNC to play for the Championship.  I always like taking teams that have to play fewer difficult games. 

Two Seeds:  I hit 3 of these 4, having Oregon as a 2 instead of Louisville.  I think this are perfectly reasonable 2 seeds.  Duke is playing great and has a very reasonable path to the elite eight.  I like Louisville in each game, but their second round matchup will be tough regardless of the team they play.  Arizona’s path sets up nice for a rematch with Gonzaga.

Three Seeds:  I only hit two of these as I had Oregon as 3 instead of Louisville and had West Virginia instead of Florida State.  Florida State is fine because they have great wins and I am fine with valuing Louisville over Oregon.  I don’t really feel great about any of the 3 seeds chances to make a deep run this year, though I feel best about Oregon.  I think Oregon is a bit undervalued and they have a nice draw to the Sweet 16.  They could avoid Louisville if things break right and Kansas is the weakest 1 seed. 

Four Seeds:  I missed on 2 of these as well.  I had FSU instead of West Virginia and I had Notre Dame instead of Purdue.  Again I was one seed off of all of them so no real complaints with the committee’s choices.  I really liked both Florida and Virginia before the tournament so that could be a great second round matchup.  I think I am going to take Vermont over Purdue, mainly because I am not huge on Purdue’s chances of making a run and I like that Vermont team.  I could see Florida or West Virginia making a final four run, but not the other two. 

Five Seeds:  Once again I had them all within 1 seed line but the only actual 5 seed I hit was Virginia.  I thought UC and Iowa State would be close enough that UC’s win at Iowa State would keep the Bearcats above the Cyclones, but the committee’s 5 seeds were mostly reasonable.  I don’t quite get Minnesota as a 5, but I had them as a 6 so we weren’t really that far apart.  I plan on picking against Minnesota.  I know a lot of people like UNCW over Virginia, but I think Virginia understands playing against that style (just watch them against Louisville every year).   The two 5/12s upsets I like the most are Princeton over Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee State over Minnesota. 

Six Seeds:  Creighton is the only 1 I had though I had the three others only one line apart.  We talked extensively about UC, but I love SMU’s draw (which is likely what UC could have had with a win yesterday).  Providence and USC are two of the weakest at large teams, Providence is 56 kenpom, USC is 61.  By comparison Kansas State and Wake sit at 29 and 30 respectfully.  Then SMU gets a Baylor team that got some amazing wins early, but has been pretty average the last month and half.  I really liked SMU before the tournament and love them to get to a Sweet 16 right now.  Maryland is about as underwhelming a 6 seed as there could be so that is a great draw for Xavier. 

Seven Seeds:  I had St. Marys and Michigan as 7 seeds, but here is where a couple of my biggest misses came.  I had Dayton all the way down at a 10 as I just didn’t think they beat enough good teams to be higher.  I had South Carolina as a 10 for the exact same reason.  I am mildly surprised by these, though when you get the 7 through 10 you can often pull those teams out of a hat.   Of the 7 seeds I think Michigan and St Marys are both incredibly dangerous, though I think Michigan has a coinflip first round game.  St Mary’s v. Arizona could be an excellent second round game with the real chance for an upset.  I don’t think Dayton or South Carolina are very big threats. 

Eight Seeds:  I missed on all of these though I had Arkansas, Miami and Northwestern in the 8/9 games as 9 seeds.  I think Wisconsin is underseeded especially when you look at the Big Ten teams above them.  Wisconsin is a dangerous 8 seed should they win and get to play Villanova.  I think Miami is also a very dangerous 8 seed for a Kansas team I am underwhelmed by. 

Nine Seeds:  Once again I missed on all of these though I had Michigan State, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall all in the 8/9 games but as 8 seeds.  My biggest miss in the group is a 15 loss Vandy team I had as one of the last 4 in.  I am not very surprised they are higher because the committee consistently rewards SOS.  Vandy had the #1 nonconference SOS and the #2 overall SOS.  As a result the committee had them safely in.  Of the 9 seeds I think Seton Hall has been playing the best basketball, but Virginia Tech has the offensive firepower to be difficult for Villanova.  I think the VT / Wisconsin game should be really interesting. 

Ten Seeds:  I hit both Wichita State and VCU, but missed on the other two (though I had Marquette within 1 seed line).  My biggest miss here was I had Oklahoma State as an 8 seed and they wound up a ten.  I like that Oklahoma State team a ton and will be picking them against a Michigan team I also like.  Louisville is in for a very tough second round game regardless.  Wichita State is also a victim of the committees love of RPI top xyz wins.  Most of the advanced metrics suggest the Shockers are a top 10-15 team.  That’s a brutal draw for UK in the second round (Though maybe some poetic justice as the Shockers drew the supremely talented Wildcats as an 8 seed when they were a 1…still maybe the best second round game I can remember in the NCAA tournament).  Some numbers suggest UK/Wichita is close to a coinflip so they may be a good team to take a risk on. 

Eleven Seeds:  I hit 3 of the 6 (Xavier, Rhode Island and Kansas State).  I had Middle Tennessee State as another which dropped the other play in teams to a 12 seed.  I had all of them within 1 seed line.  Xavier has a great draw as they are actually rated higher by Kenpom than their opponent (not definitive but these teams are closer than you’d expect 11/6 to be).   As noted UC’s possible opponents are pretty good for 11 seeds, but beatable.  I don’t think USC or Providence have a great shot against SMU.  Rhode Island and Creighton is a good matchup that I think could go either way.

Twelve-Sixteen Seeds:  Hit all of these within a seed line.  We’ve already discussed the upsets I like.  

Final Bracket Projection

One Seeds:  Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, UNC

Two Seeds:  Duke, Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon

Three Seeds:  Baylor, UCLA, Louisville, West Virginia

Four Seeds:  Notre Dame, Florida State, Florida, Butler

Five Seeds:  SMU, Cincinnati, Purdue, Virginia

Six Seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton

Seven Seeds:  St Marys, Michigan, Maryland, Miami

Eight Seeds:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Michigan State

Nine Seeds:  Northwestern, Arkansas, Marquette, South Carolina

Ten Seeds:  Providence, VCU, Wichita State, Dayton

Eleven Seeds:  Xavier, Middle TN State, Rhode Island, Kansas State/Vandy

Twelve Seeds:  Wake Forest/USC, UNCW, Nevada, Vermont

Thirteen Seeds:  New Mexico State, Princeton, Kent State, Iona

Fourteen Seeds:  Bucknell, Winthrop, ETSU, Florida Gulf Coast

Fifteen Seeds:  NKU, Jacksonville State, New Orleans, North Dakota

Sixteen Seeds:  South Dakota St., UC Davis, Troy/NC Central, Mt. St. Marys/Texas Southern

Last Four In:  Vandy, Kansas State, USC, Wake Forest

Five Outside Hoping:  Cal, Illinois, Syracuse, Illinois State, UT Arlington

Buffalo, Milwaukee, Orlando, Salt Lake City (Thursday)

Greenville, Indianapolis, Sacramento, Tulsa (Friday)

West Regional (Final in San Jose)

(1) Gonzaga

(16) UC Davis

               Sacramento

(8) Seton Hall

(9) Northwestern

(4) Florida State

(13) New Mexico State

               Orlando

(12)  Nevada

(5) SMU

(3) Baylor

(14) Florida Gulf Coast

               Tulsa

(6) Creighton

(11) Rhode Island

              

(2)  Arizona

(15) North Dakota

               Salt Lake City

(7) Miami

(10) Wichita State

East Regional (Final in New York)

(1) Villanova

(16) Mt. St. Marys/Texas Southern

               Buffalo

(8) Virginia Tech

(9) Arkansas

(4) Butler

(13) Princeton

               Milwaukee

(12) UNCW

(5) Virginia

(3) UCLA

(14) East Tennessee State

               Sacramento

(6) Minnesota

(11) Xavier

(2)  Duke

(15) New Orleans

               Greenville

(7) Michigan

(10) VCU

Midwest Regional (Final in Kansas City)

(1) Kansas

(16) South Dakota State

               Tulsa

(8) Michigan State

(9)  Marquette

(4) Notre Dame

(13) Iona

               Milwaukee

(12) Vermont

(5) Cincinnati

(3) West Virginia

(14) Bucknell

               Buffalo

(6) Wisconsin

(11) Kansas State / Vandy

               Salt Lake City

(2) Oregon

(15) Jacksonville State

(7) St Marys

(10) Providence

South Regional (Final in Memphis)

(1) North Carolina

(16) Troy/NC Central

               Greenville

(8) Oklahoma State

(9) South Carolina

(4) Florida

(13) Kent State

               Orlando

(12) USC / Wake Forest

(5) Purdue

(3)  Louisville

(14) Winthrop

               Indianapolis

(6) Iowa State

(11) Middle Tennessee State.

(2) Kentucky

(15) Northern Kentucky

               Indianapolis

(7) Maryland

(10) Dayton

Selection Sunday Morning Bracket

This may be the last bracket I get to post before the tournament starts.  First on UC since that's the most imporant.  I have them as a 5 seed and will keep them there regardless of today's result.  They are probably just as likely to be a 4 with a win today, but a high 5 seed seems reasonable as well.  I think the teams above them just have better resumes (though it's close enough with the last few that they could jump).  

If Rhode Island wins today Vandy would slide into the First four games in Dayton in their place.  Other than that I think the bracket is pretty much set.  I will not be changing my last four in other than that.  I could see Kentucky or Duke taking UNC's one seed, but I think UNC will be rewarded for winning the ACC regular season by 2 games.  I made my attempt at bracketing the pods below.  I tried to avoid conflicts that the committee has to avoid, but I did it kind of quickly so maybe you'll catch some.  

One Seeds:  Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, UNC

Two Seeds:  Duke, Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon

Three Seeds:  Baylor, UCLA, Louisville, West Virginia

Four Seeds:  Notre Dame, Florida State, Florida, Butler

Five Seeds:  SMU, Cincinnati, Purdue, Virginia

Six Seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton

Seven Seeds:  St Marys, Michigan, Maryland, Miami

Eight Seeds:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, Michigan State

Nine Seeds:  Northwestern, Arkansas, Marquette, South Carolina

Ten Seeds:  Providence, VCU, Wichita State, Dayton

Eleven Seeds:  Xavier, Middle TN State, Vandy, Kansas State/ Wake Forest

Twelve Seeds:  Rhode Island/USC, UNCW, Nevada, Vermont

Thirteen Seeds:  New Mexico State, Princeton, Kent State, Iona

Fourteen Seeds:  Bucknell, Winthrop, ETSU, Florida Gulf Coast

Fifteen Seeds:  NKU, Jacksonville State, New Orleans, North Dakota

Sixteen Seeds:  South Dakota St., UC Davis, Texas State/NC Central, Mt. St. Marys/Texas Southern

Last Four In:  Kansas State, USC, Rhode Island, Wake Forest

Four Outside Hoping:  Cal, Illinois, Syracuse, Illinois State

Buffalo, Milwaukie, Orlando, Salt Lake City (Thursday)

Greenville, Indianapolis, Sacramento, Tulsa (Friday)

West Regional (Final in San Jose)

(1) Gonzaga

(16) UC Davis

               Sacramento

(8) Seton Hall

(9) Northwestern

(4) Florida State

(13) New Mexico State

               Orlando

(12)  Nevada

(5) SMU

(3) Baylor

(14) Florida Gulf Coast

               Tulsa

(6) Creighton

(11) Vandy

              

(2)  Arizona

(15) North Dakota

               Salt Lake City

(7) Miami

(10) Wichita State

East Regional (Final in New York)

(1) Villanova

(16) Mt. St. Marys/Texas Southern

               Buffalo

(8) Virginia Tech

(9) Marquette

(4) Butler

(13) Princeton

               Milwaukie

(12) UNCW

(5) Virginia

(3) UCLA

(14) East Tennessee State

               Sacramento

(6) Minnesota

(11) Xavier

(2)  Duke

(15) New Orleans

               Greenville

(7) Michigan

(10) VCU

Midwest Regional (Final in Kansas City)

(1) Kansas

(16) South Dakota State

               Tulsa

(8) Michigan State

(9)  Arkansas

(4) Notre Dame

(13) Iona

               Milwaukie

(12) Vermont

(5) Cincinnati

(3) West Virginia

(14) Bucknell

               Buffalo

(6) Wisconsin

(11) Kansas State /USC

               Salt Lake City

(2) Oregon

(15) Jacksonville State

(7) St Marys

(10) Providence

South Regional (Final in Memphis)

(1) North Carolina

(16) Texas State/NC Central

               Greenville

(8) Oklahoma State

(9) South Carolina

(4) Florida

(13) Kent State

               Orlando

(12) Rhode Island / Wake Forest

(5) Purdue

(3)  Louisville

(14) Winthrop

               Indianapolis

(6) Iowa State

(11) Middle Tennessee State.

(2) Kentucky

(15) Northern Kentucky

               Indianapolis

(7) Maryland

(10) Dayton