First Bracket Projection

Conference Tournament Champions in Bold

1 Seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas

2 Seeds:  Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue, UNC

3 Seeds:  Michigan State, Auburn, Tennessee, Wichita State

4 Seeds:  Michigan, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Gonzaga

5 Seeds:  Arizona, Clemson, Houston, Ohio State

6 Seeds:  Miami (fl), Florida, Kentucky, TCU

7 Seeds:  Arkansas, Nevada, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

8 Seeds:  Missouri, Texas A&M, St Bona, Rhode Island

9 Seeds:  Butler, Creighton, Florida State, NC State

10 Seeds:  Oklahoma, Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas

11 Seeds:  Providence, UCLA, St. Marys/Louisville, Middle Tennessee St.

12 Seeds:  Syracuse/Baylor, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State, Buffalo

13 Seeds:  New Mexico State, Louisiana Lafayette, Vermont, Murray State

14 Seeds:  Charleston, UC Santa Barbara, Bucknell, Montana

15 Seeds:  Penn, UNC Greensboro, Radford, Wright State

16 Seeds:  Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Lipscomb / Texas Southern, LIU Brooklyn / Hampton

Last 4 At Large:  St Marys, Syracuse, Louisville, Baylor
Next 4 Out:  USC, Alabama, Marquette, Washington
Lurking:  Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Utah, Boise State, Mississippi State, LSU
Season over and likely out:  Penn State, Nebraska

I think the first 3 one seeds are set in stone barring a big upset loss in the first game of the Big East tournament for Xavier.  I think Kansas and Duke are battling for the forth one seed.  Kansas has the inside track if they win the Big 12 tournament.  Duke winning the ACC tournament and somebody else winning the Big 12 tournament could give Duke the 1 seed over Kansas.  If Xavier loses their first conference tournament game and both Duke/Kansas win their conference tournament, maybe Xavier drops.  I don't see Villanova or Virginia dropping.

For the Bearcats it is simple, make the finals of the AAC tournament and they should be a 2 seed.  I have them as the second 2 seed right now.  I think Michigan State and Michigan having poor nonconference SOS numbers holds them back a bit with their seeds.  I think Arizona can take Gonzaga's 4 seed.  I also think I could be way off on Gonzaga, but I am hoping the committee at least splits the difference. They are a top 10 type team, but their RPI profile is a mixed bag.  Them as a 6/7 seed would be a brutal 2nd round draw for some high seeded team.