1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Duke, Cincinnati, Purdue, UNC
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Auburn, Tennessee, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Michigan, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Gonzaga
5 Seeds: Arizona, Clemson, Houston, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Miami (fl), Florida, Kentucky, TCU
7 Seeds: Arkansas, Nevada, Butler, Virginia Tech
8 Seeds: Seton Hall, St Bona, Rhode Island, Kansas State
9 Seeds: Creighton, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida State
10 Seeds: Providence, UCLA, NC State, Texas
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, St Marys, Loyola-Chicago, Arizona State / Middle Tennessee St.
12 Seeds: USC / Alabama, Western Kentucky, South Dakota St., Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Louisiana Lafayette, Vermont, Murray State
14 Seeds: Charleston, UC Santa Barbara, Bucknell, Montana
15 Seeds: Penn, UNC Greensboro, Radford, Wright State
16 Seeds: Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Lipscomb / Texas Southern, LIU Brooklyn / Hampton
Last 4 In: Arizona St., USC, Alabama, Middle Tennessee St.
Next 8 Whose Seasons are Already Done: Marquette, Louisville, Baylor, Syracuse, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame, Penn State, Utah
2 Teams who theoretically can play themselves into the discussion: Mississippi St., Temple
UNC could be playing for the top 2 seed tonight with a win and a 3 seed with a loss (I think they’d be a two seed unless Tennessee/Auburn won the SEC tournament). Huge swing game for them. I think a trip to the finals of the AAC gets UC the 2nd two seed behind Duke if Duke wins tonight. There’s a chance UNC would pass UC if they won tonight.
I think chances are Arizona wins the PAC 12 and I finish with them as a 4 seed. The possibility of a Gonzaga v. Arizona second round matchup is very enticing. I have 3 teams that could pass TCU for the final 6 seed the next few days. Odds are I’ll have TCU on the 7 line when it’s all said and done.
I think because of the nature of the committee and their full body of work directive that Arizona State and Oklahoma will both hold on to tournament spots. By beating Texas A&M yesterday I think Alabama has put themselves in the field for now. They have a really nice tier 1 and tier 2 resume. I really hope Middle TN St. holds on to a spot, but they are certainly teetering on the edge. The good news is a lot of the teams behind them that could claim bids have already lost and have no chances at improving their resume.
The best chance we have at another bid stealer is if Nevada loses in the Mountain West tournament. Other than that I just don’t see it happening.