Hopefully I
have time to do one final projection before the bracket come out, but here is
my bracket as of Selection Sunday morning.
All of the conference tournament champions are in bold. I have included the
first round tournament sites by putting them in between the two pod games
played there. Each site gets two 4 team
pods. There is a potential for UConn to
steal a bid today, so that is something to keep an eye on.
Cincinnati
Bearcats:
I have the
Bearcats as the third 8 seed. I think
there is a 90% chance UC is playing in the 8/9 game (yea I pulled the number
out of thin air and it’s probably wrong, but just seems that is what their
resume will warrant). You could make a
case for UC has high as a 7 and as lows a 10.
I don’t see them any higher or any lower. The way my bracket worked out after doing
adjustments for locations and balance of brackets I have UC in Kentucky’s
region playing their first round games in Louisville. For teams not seeded in the top 4, locations
and what top teams they are paired in a region with are almost impossible to
project accurately, so take all that with a grain of salt. The seed range is the most important part and
who they are paired against is largely luck of the draw after that.
Top 10 on
the S-Curve:
As of right
now my top ten looks like this:
1. Kentucky
2. Villanova
3. Wisconsin
(assuming they win the Big 10, if they lose you can make a case for 4)
4. Duke
5. Virginia
6. Arizona
7. Gonzaga
8. Kansas
9. Iowa
State
10. Notre
Dame
I think the
top 6 are going to be the top 6 in some order (with UK at the top
undoubtedly). You can make a case for
Arizona and Virginia as 1 seeds, but I think the case for Wisconsin/Duke is
stronger. It seems clear to me that the
1 seeds will come from those 6 teams. I
have Gonzaga and Kansas as 2 seeds, but both Iowa State and Notre Dame have
good arguments as well. In the end I
valued Gonzaga’s gaudy record and 9-2 RPI top 100 record (6-2 vs. top 50) and I
valued Kansas’s incredible RPI profile that included play the number 1 schedule
in the country and an absurd 9 RPI top 25 wins, 12 RPI top 50 wins and 17 RPI
top 100 wins. It is possible the
committee sees it differently, but I am pretty confident that all the 1 and 2
seeds will come from these 10.
Last 7 in:
Boise State,
Davidson, Indiana, Colorado State, Temple, Texas, Ole Miss
First 2 out:
BYU, Old
Dominion
I did this
as 7 and 2, because in the end these are the 7 I have in that I could see the committee
leaving out and the First 2 are the 2 teams I could possibly see taking any of
their places. I think I am one of the
few people still leaving BYU out so that is probably where I am most likely to
be wrong. My problem with BYU is they
only beat 1 at large quality team all season (a great win at Gonzaga). Historically that just has never been enough
for the committee. Every team on the
bubble has more quality wins than BYU.
That means something. Old
Dominion has a weird profile where they are 6-2 against the RPI top 100
(including wins over VCU and LSU) and strong nonconference strength of schedule
numbers (both of which the committee loves for at large bids), but they were
very mediocre in conference play and lost in their conference tournament
semis. Had they made the finals, I would
have them in, but I think they just miss.
Of the last
7 I feel best about Boise State. One
major reason I feel best about Boise State is that I can see no reason they
would be behind Colorado State on the S-Curve.
That’s one team where I believe they certainly have a better
profile. Davidson’s performance down the
stretch will likely be enough to carry them in as well. I’m in the minority but I think Temple should
be very worried at this point and think they should be rooting against UConn
today. I think UConn could take Temple’s
spot in the tournament. It’s an easy
switch for the committee to make and Temple is only 2-8 against the RPI top
50. Looking deeper a lot of those losses
are to really good teams (5 in RPI top 13), but 2 wins over tournament type
teams isn’t ideal. The Kansas win will
carry a lot of weight, but I’m not sure it carry’s enough considering both of
Temple’s wins over tournament competition were at home.
I have
Colorado State below most projections as well and would be fine if the
committee left them out. They simply
haven’t done any damage away from home and haven’t beaten tournament caliber
teams. I think Indiana’s quality wins
keep them in and I think Texas’s ridiculous schedule combined with not losing
to any bad teams keeps them in. Still in
the end, I see the bubble as 9 teams for 7 spots (and if UConn wins 9 teams for
6 spots). If any other team misses I
think it will be a clear error by the committee and if any team not listed gets
in, I think it will be another error by the committee. These are the teams with the best at large
cases.
Here’s the
bracket:
Midwest Region
1. Kentucky
16. Texas Southern / Hampton
Louisville, Kentucky
8.
Cincinnati
9. Purdue
4. North
Carolina
13. Valparaiso
Jacksonville, Florida
5. West
Virginia
12. Harvard
3. Notre Dame
14. Coastal Carolina
Columbus, Ohio
6. Wichita
State
11. Texas / Temple
2. Kansas
15. Lafayette
Omaha, Nebraska
7. Xavier
10. Ohio
State
West Region
1. Duke
16. North Florida / Georgia State
Charlotte, NC
8. Iowa
9. Dayton
4. Arkansas
13. UC
Irvine
Jacksonville, Florida
5. Butler
12. Wofford
3. Oklahoma
14. North Dakota State
Portland, Oregon
6. Michigan
State
11. Davidson
2. Arizona
15. Eastern Washington
Portland, Oregon
7. San Diego
State
10. LSU
South Region
1. Wisconsin
16. Robert Morris
Omaha,
Nebraska
8. St Johns
9. Georgia
4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State
Seattle,
Washington
5. Utah
12. Stephen F. Austin
3. Iowa State
14. UAB
Louisville,
Kentucky
6. SMU
11. Ole Miss
/ Colorado State
2. Gonzaga
15. Belmont
Seattle,
Washington
7. Oregon
10. Oklahoma
State
East Region
1. Villanova
16. Manhattan
Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
8. VCU
9. North
Carolina State
4. Northern Iowa
13. Wyoming
Columbus,
Ohio
5.
Louisville
12. Buffalo
3. Maryland
14. Northeastern
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
6.
Providence
11. Indiana
2. Virginia
15. Albany
Charlotte, NC
7.
Georgetown
10. Boise
State
