Another solid
season ended early in the tournament with a disappointing performance against
Iowa. I’ve given it 48 hours to try to gather
my thoughts on the 2018-2019 Bearcats. I’ve
heard some describe this team as having overachieved. I find that take to be absurd. The Bearcats were picked second in the AAC
and finished second in the AAC. Prior to
the season the Bearcats were consistently picked to make the tournament by the prognosticators
and they did. Going into the season I
thought the worst-case scenario for this team was to be a bubble team and the
best case scenario was to be a top 15 caliber team. The most likely scenario was always something
in between and that’s what the Bearcats became.
They were a borderline top 25 type team most the year, one that was unlikely
to get past the first weekend and that’s ultimately where they ended up. As of today they are 32 kenpom, with an adjusted
offense of 47 and an uncharacteristically low adjusted defense of 30. This team probably fits squarely in the
middle of the good, not great, Cronin teams that have made the tournament.
There is plenty to be proud of
for this team. Their ability to get wins
in close games (and luck) allowed them to finish second in a much deeper
American conference. Winning the AAC tournament
by beating a top 10 Houston team is a very big deal. The Bearcats dominated the crosstown shootout,
something fans should always feel good about.
Jarron Cumberland was a deserving American Conference player of the year
and likely will be a preseason All American next season. Justin Jenifer and Cane Broome gave solid
contributions their final year and often made huge shots late in games. I think the team played close to its full
potential offensively this year where other than Cumberland they really had a
lot of role players who contributed well.
If this kind of season can be the floor going forward it’s an incredibly
successful season. The big issue is we
need to see more seasons like last year, where they are a legitimate top 10-15
team. There was enough this year and
enough coming back that next year’s team has the chance to get to that level.
As I said previously, I really do
think this team played to its potential offensively. Cumberland was great and the Bearcats used
him intelligently as a facilitator and scorer.
Jenifer finished the season with the 12th best kenpom offensive
rating in the country. Both Brooks and
Scott had great offensive efficiency numbers, kenpom has Brooks 247 nationally
in offensive rating and Scott 407. We
watch and know all of these guys liabilities, but their efficiency tells me
that the Bearcats really maximized their skillsets on offense. The Bearcats were great at protecting the
basketball (26th nationally) and rebounded a ton of their misses (4th
nationally in offensive rebound percentage).
They had 2 big weaknesses that bit them on offense and prevented them from
being better than they were: 1. Other than Broome they had no offensive
threats off their bench and 2. Nobody besides Cumberland and Jenifer could
consistently hit an outside shot. The
six other guys who took at least 10 threes all shot between 23% and 30% (only
Tre Scott broke 30%).
However, for this team to reach
its full potential it needed to have a top 10 caliber defense. They just never got there. Defensively they had two glaring weakness, 1.
They were poor defending three-point shooters and 2. They gave up too many
offensive rebounds. In 3 of their 7
losses their opponent shot at least 50% and in 2 others they shot over
40%. In 5 of their 7 losses they allowed
teams to rebound at least 33% of their misses.
The matchup zone did its job of making it difficult to score in the
paint against them, but they often overhelped off the wrong player and their recovery
to shooters often seemed slow and discombobulated. Additionally, their guards lacked size and
athleticism to really contest on closeouts.
Last season someone like Jacob Evans was spectacular at recovery close
outs and would block shots that shooters thought they had a clean look. This year opposing offensive players shot
over UC guards so even if they closed out well, offensive players could
confidently take the shot. Gary Clark
was the best all around inside defender of the Cronin era and Evans was the
best perimeter/wing defender I’ve seen at UC.
Losing those two extraordinary defenders was always going to be
difficult. They erased so many mistakes
with their intelligence and abilities.
Lastly, Brooks couldn’t seem to stay on the floor. He averaged 5.7 fouls for every 40 minutes on
the floor. When he was on the floor his
impact was evident, but he has to figure out how to avoid fouls next year.
The good news for Cincinnati is
they have a ton of experience coming back next year. Jarron Cumberland will likely be a preseason
All-American. I expect Brooks and Scott
to be all-conference caliber players.
Scott in particular was playing confidently and effectively on the
offensive end at the end of the year.
They desperately need to find another ball handler to ease the pressure off
Cumberland and they need to find more wing scoring. Can Logan Johnson make a big leap? Can Williams build on the promising offense
he showed early before fading down the stretch?
Can Moore finally become a good spot up jump shooter? Can Curtis give next year’s UC team what
Cumberland gave UC his freshman year?
If those things happen they’ll be a protected seed next year. That should
be the goal for them.
I think next year they will be a
3-5 seed type team. Their ability to be
a true contender will come down finding scoring/ball handling to take the place
of Broome/Jenifer, improving their three-point defense and finding a way to
keep Brooks on the floor. I have
absolute confidence Cumberland will be a force again. I have a ton of confidence that Scott will
have a really good senior season.
Jenifer and Broome are nice role players, but they are the kind of guys you
can replace if a couple others step up.
This team should be better next season.
Other than last years’ team and the team following the Sweet 16 team
(which ended up being a bit disappointing), next year will be as confident as I
have been in an incoming Mick Cronin team.
There are a lot of knowns and the unknowns aren’t huge holes that need
filled.
For the Bearcats to be a true
threat they need to get back to being a top 10 defense. If they can be top 10 kenpom adjusted defense
and top 25 in kenpom adjusted offense, they can be a title contender. The offense was better than I expected this season
and should be better next season. A drop
in defense was inevitable this year as last year’s team had the best UC defense
of my lifetime. However, I did not
expect to fall as far as they did. Hopefully
another year and some added length from their wings will get the defense back
to an elite level. I’m optimistic
because defense has been the great constant for most of the Mick Cronin
era. If those things happen, next year
could be special and UC will have a great chance at a run in March.
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