Morning of Selection Sunday Bracket

1 Seeds                Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, UNC

2 Seeds                Gonzaga, Michigan State, Kentucky, Houston

3 Seeds                LSU, Michigan, Florida State, Purdue

4 Seeds                Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Texas Tech

5 Seeds                Auburn, Villanova, Iowa State, Mississippi State,

6 Seeds                Wisconsin, Marquette, Cincinnati, Buffalo

7 Seeds                Maryland, Nevada, Louisville, Wofford

8 Seeds                Baylor, Iowa, Syracuse, Seton Hall,

9 Seeds                Minnesota, UCF, VCU, Washington

10 Seeds              Arizona State, Ohio State, Utah State,  Florida

11 Seeds              Ole Miss, Oregon, Temple/Oklahoma, St Johns/Belmont

12 Seeds              St Marys, Murray State, Liberty, Davidson

13 Seeds              NM State, Yale, GA State, Old Dominion

14 Seeds              Bradley, Vermont, UC Irvine, NKU

15 Seeds              Montana, Colgate, Northeastern, Iona

16 Seeds              Gardner Webb, Albeline Christian, North Dakota State/Prarie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson/NC Central

Last 5 In:             Ole Miss, Belmont, Temple, St Johns, Oklahoma

Teams Done Playing With a Shot:  TCU, Alabama, Texas, NC State, Indiana, UNCG, Clemson, Creighton, Lipscomb, Furman

Most likely to miss on:

Belmont- I think their resume is just better despite the weaker schedule, but committee has traditionally not been very fair to small conference teams like Belmont.

Team I hope I Miss On (That I Have in):  St Johns- they have no business being in the tournament.  There are several better teams among those I have out.  I just think they have the kind of wins the committee will see as enough, despite all their flaws.

Team I hope I miss on (that I have out):  UNCG- Similar to Belmont, a team that has put up a gaudy record and had the misfortune of being great in that league in a year where Wofford was just better.  They don’t have a loss outside of Q1.  Their wins aren’t what the committee typically values, but they did better against their schedule than most bubble teams would have done.  

I think Duke/Virginia are absolute locks for the first 2 one seeds.  I think Tennessee is a one seed with a win today (and maybe with a loss).  I think UNC is the 4th, but Michigan State can snatch it with a win.  I think my top 8 are the top 8 and will be the 1 and 2 seeds.  I like UC as a 6, could see them as high as a 5 and as low as a 7.  

Hope to have one more bracket posted right before selection show if all goes well.