First Bracket Prediction

I just completed my first bracket prediction of the year for you all to enjoy.  As of today my 1 seeds are UVA, UNC, Tennessee and Gonzaga.  Only UVA is set in stone.  The SEC and ACC tournament will tell us a ton and theoretically I could see Michigan State getting there as well.  There is a decent chance any of the last 3 could fall off.  

LSU as a 3 seed was difficult and I think they could still get a 1 seed (if they win the SEC tournament they absolutely will).  Because Houston beat them I just gave Houston the edge.  The 4 and 5 seeds are kind of a jumble, but I think they've mostly separated themselves from the 6 and 7 seeds.  

I have Cincinnati as the second 7 seed right now.  I could see them as a 6 seed depending on how the committee views Iowa State, Nevada, Buffalo and Maryland (all of these teams have resumes that are really a matter of preference, not significantly better than one or the other).  I think UC should be able to play themselves to a 6 seed this week.  I think falling to an 8 seed would take a loss before the finals AND other teams behind them having a good week (such as UCF/Baylor/Iowa).  I don't see them falling below an 8 seed.  

I had a really hard time differentiating between teams at the end of the bracket.  Starting with Temple on down I could see the committee leaving any of those bottom teams out in place of a team like TCU, Creighton, Indiana or even UNCG if anyone on the committee decides to value strength of record.  My assumption in making this bracket is that Clemson holds on against NC State.  If they do I think NC State gets left out because of their dreadful nonconference SOS.  I'm not confident Clemson is in and the teams behind them could certainly pass them even if they are right now.  

1 Seeds                Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Gonzaga

2 Seeds                Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, Houston

3 Seeds                LSU, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue

4 Seeds                Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Florida State, Kansas

5 Seeds                Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Marquette

6 Seeds                Villanova, Iowa State, Nevada, Buffalo

7 Seeds                Maryland, Cincinnati, Louisville, Wofford

8 Seeds                Baylor, Iowa, UCF, Syracuse

9 Seeds                Seton Hall, Minnesota, VCU, Washington

10 Seeds              Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Temple, Ohio State

11 Seeds              Utah State, St Johns, Arizona State, Texas/Clemson,

12 Seeds              Belmont/Florida, St Marys, Murray State, Liberty

13 Seeds              NM State, Yale, GA Southern, Old Dominion

14 Seeds              Bradley, Vermont, UC Irvine, NKU

15 Seeds              Montana, Colgate, Northeastern, Iona

16 Seeds              Gardner Webb, Sam Houston St., North Dakota State/Prarie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson/Norfolk State

Last 6 In:              St Johns, Arizona State, Texas, Belmont, Florida, Clemson

First 6 Out:          TCU, Creighton, Indiana, NC State, UNCG, Alabama