I am Pretty Confident They Will Make It
Seton Hall- I think they are in and will likely be one of
the worst at large teams in if you put stock into predictive metrics. The bottom line is they have the wins and the
Q1/Q2 record to overcome their flaws.
They are 6-7 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2 games. This is huge for them in comparison to other
bubble teams. When you look at their
actual wins it is even more important.
They have a neutral site win over Kentucky and a road win over Maryland
to go with home wins over Villanova and Marquette. They also have road wins over bubble teams
Creighton and Xavier, and home wins over bubble teams Butler, St Johns and
Creighton. Of the bubble teams their
resume stands out despite only being 62 NET and 59 kenpom.
Minnesota- I like their resume a little more than Ohio State’s
at this point. They are a similar 3-9 in
Q1 games, but 7-3 in Q2 games. They don’t
have a bad loss. They have a road win
against Wisconsin and a Neutral site win over Washington along with the big
home win over Purdue. Another bubble
team that sits under .500 in its conference (9-11).
VCU- 31 NET, 32
kenpom…this should absolutely be a tournament team, BUT there isn’t a lot to
their resume and they have a couple bad losses.
I think they should be in if they don’t win the A10 tournament, but they
are absolutely the kind of team the committee has kept out in favor of middling
p5s. 3-2 against q1 and 3-2 against q2
is helpful despite the lack of opportunities.
Their road win over bubble team Texas and neutral site win over bubble
team Temple should be enough to get them over the finish line. They do have a 1 point neutral court loss to
St. Johns.
Washington- The Pac
12 is bad. They’ve been the best team in
it. Only 47 in kenpom, but a decent 38
NET. 2-4 in Q1 games with their wins
both coming against non-tournament teams.
8-6 against Q1/Q2. Their best win
probably at Oregon (gross). The more I
look at this the more I think it’s not a tournament resume, but would the Pac
12 champ really be left out?
Ole Miss- They have faded a bit down the stretch, but
probably have enough on the resume to get in.
34 NET, 43 kenpom. Road wins
against Auburn and Mississippi State and the neutral cite win against Baylor
looks better and better. Only 4-10 v. Q1
teams and 7-11 against Q1/Q2, but no bad losses.
Oklahoma- 40 NET, 36 kenpom.
They are probably a tournament caliber team, but they did only go 7-11
in their conference. Only 4-10 in Q1
games, but 6-2 in Q2 games, making them 10-12 against Q1/Q2. A big issue is they did almost all of their
damage at home. Their neutral site win
against Florida is their only Q1 win away from home (they have 2 road Q2 wins
and 1 neutral Q2 win). They also have
zero bad losses and did not play a single Q4 team among the games on their
schedule. I think they’ll be rewarded
for their 18 SOS despite being a team that hasn’t shown it can win tournament
caliber games outside of Norman.
Flawed Resume that I Think Will Hold on (But I could be wrong)
Temple- Only 2-6 in Q1 games, but a solid 6-1 in Q2 games,
Temple has put themselves in position to get a bid with a couple wins in the
AAC tournament (and may sneak in regardless).
The win over Houston is huge and the win over UCF has become a Q1 win
with UCF’s recent surge. As far as wins
over tournament teams that is all they have, but they have good road wins over
Missouri, Wichita State, UConn and USF to go with a neutral cite win over
Davidson. That 10-6 road/neutral record
should be helpful. If the committee
values predictive metrics at all they could drop some (only 69 kenpom), but
that typically has not been the case.
Ohio State- Another
team that is 4 games under .500 in their conference and they have really faded
down the stretch. They have fallen to 55
NET and 44 kenpom. They went 4-9 against
Q1 teams, though their best win is almost certainly the season opener at
Cincinnati. Since then they don’t have a
single win against a definite tournament team away from home. They do have road wins over bubble teams
Creighton and Indiana which should help if they are compared with those
teams. They are 4-3 against Q2,
including wins over Iowa and Minnesota (both at home). This looks like a first four type resume to
me and an early loss could have them in real trouble.
Utah State- Are the home Nevada win and Neutral court St
Marys win enough? They seem like a
prototypical end of the bracket or just out team. 3-2 Q1 is helpful as most bubble teams are
well below .500 in q1 games, but they are only 1-3 in Q2 games. They have a loss to bubble Arizona State, but
no really bad losses. The 30 NET is
really good if that matters at all, the kenpom of 40 is fine and at large
worthy. I hope they get in, but it will
likely be close.
St Johns- How much will the committee value these middling
Big East teams? St Johns is 66 NET and
74 kenpom. If they get in they have a
great shot to be the worst at large team in the field. They finished under .500 in the Big East and
were swept by Xavier (gross). AND YET…. They are 5-6 in q1 games and 5-3 in Q2 games
which will compare very favorably to much of the bubble. A road win over Marquette is good, a Neutral
site win over VCU is nice (both by 1 point) and they managed to beat Villanova
and Marquette at home. They benefit
greatly from the abundance of NIT caliber teams in the Big East keeping them
close. I think they probably shouldn’t
be in baring a run in the Big East tournament, but I think they are very likely
to get in.
Arizona State- They
have to hope the committee continues to value good wins more than bad losses. If that trend continues they will likely be
on the right side of the bubble despite being 67 NET and 62 kenpom. They have two Q4 losses (Princeton and
Washington State at home) and two more Q3 losses (at Vandy and at a putrid Cal
team). However, they have neutral court
wins over Mississippi State and Utah State, beat Kansas at home when Kansas was
at full strength and beat Washington the only time they played. I’ve always been of the belief the committee should
weight predictive metrics more than they do, but if it continues to be a look
at Q1/Q2 kind of thing, Arizona State will sneak in.
Last Five I Have In For Now
Texas- They’re probably a tournament caliber team (39 NET, 27
kenpom), but they’d have more losses than any team in the history of the
tournament. I’m skeptical but can’t rule
them out. They have a bad loss to Radford. They are only 5-9 against Q1 teams and 4-5
against Q2 teams. To their credit they
beat UNC on a neutral court, Kansas State on the road and Purdue at home. They have a 1 point loss to bubble VCU. They split with Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State
and Kansas, but were swept by bubble TCU.
The Big 12 is really deep with quality teams. The committee could choose to reward a team
that is really good despite the losses. They
don’t have any bad losses and have played the 6th toughest schedule
in the country (16th nonconference SOS), which the committee often
rewards.
Belmont- The kind of small conference team that almost
always gets left out at the expense of middling power conference teams. They are 45 NET, 53 kenpom. They went 2-2 against Q1 and 3-2 against
Q2. 17 of their wins are against
Q4. Racking up wins against the dregs is
something the committee kills teams for, but they can’t help their
conference. They played the 76th
nonconference SOS (by the committee’s team sheet metric which I believe is
still stupidly RPI SOS). Their best wins
are road wins at Murray State and Lipscomb, which are really solid wins likely
to be undervalued by the committee. They
also beat Lipscomb at home, in a weird scheduling fluke like UC had with Dayton
many years ago and beat UCLA at Pauley.
The resume is light on what the committee likes, but I am hopeful it
will be just enough.
Florida- 14 losses, only 3-11 against Q1 teams, but 33 NET
and 30 kenpom. They are probably a
tournament caliber team, but they have a lot of losses and with that many
opportunities should that be rewarded? They
have a great road win at LSU, but their other q1 road wins are at Bama and
Arkansas (are those really any better than Belmont’s wins at Lipscomb and
Murray State?). They are 3-1 in Q2 games
beating Ole Miss and Butler at home, but this is the kind of resume that
screams NIT to me. They’ll likely be
right around the cutline.
NC State- I want to
keep this team out of the tournament and every instinct I have tells me that if
it ends up being close the committee will do so. There are 353 teams in division 1 college
basketball, and by the committee’s metric NC State played the 353rd
worst nonconference SOS. Nobody played a
worse nonconference SOS. Nonconference
SOSs in the 300s have been a death sentence for bubble teams in the past, will
that trend continue? The biggest
difference this year is while RPI would have NC State at 101 (that’s right 101!),
NET has NC State at 32 (they are 31 kenpom).
They are undoubtedly a good team, likely a tournament caliber team, but
that nonconference SOS is something else.
2-8 q1, but 6-0 q2. 4 of their Q1
losses are to Virginia, Duke and UNC, which are losses almost everyone would
have. 3 of their other four Q1 losses
are on the road. They have wins over
Auburn, Clemson and Syracuse. History
says they get penalized and left out without a couple more wins, but the NET is
new and things may be different now.
TCU- They have feasted on the middle and bottom of the big
12, which is no small matter because the Big 12 is incredibly deep with quality. Swept by Texas Tech, Swept by Kansas, Swept
by Kansas state. That’s 6 of their 11
conference losses. They swept Iowa State
and swept bubble Texas. 3-8 Q1 and 5-4 Q2 with zero bad losses. I think they need at least a win in the Big
12 tournament and even then the play in game would probably be best case
scenario unless they make a run.
First Five Out (But I Could Miss On)
Creighton- They
better hope they aren’t on the cutline vs. Ohio State, because their resumes
are virtually identical. Only 3-10 in Q1
games, by 6-3 in q2 games. They have zero
bad losses which could carry some weight.
A road win over suddenly fading Marquette and a neutral sight win over
Clemson are their biggest wins. They
were swept by bubble Seton Hall and St Johns and they split with bubblish
Xavier and Butler.
Indiana- 6 q1 wins is the biggest thing they have going for
them, but they are only 7-14 against q1/q2 teams. 14 losses is a lot to reward, but of the
bubble teams they are undoubtedly going to have the best wins. They swept Michigan State (the outright Big
Ten champions), beat Wisconsin at home, Louisville at home and Marquette at
home. They sit at 51 NET and 42 kenpom. If committee looks to best wins to differentiate
between teams like Indiana, Clemson, Ohio State and NC State, Indiana could
have the advantage. 14 losses is a lot
though.
Clemson- 1-9 in Q1 games with the one win at home against
Virginia Tech. 6-3 in Q2 games,
though none of those are against tournament
caliber teams away from home (and only the Syracuse win is against a true tournament
caliber team). They are 35 NET and 28
kenpom which suggests they are a tournament caliber team that’s played good
schedule and been a bit unlucky (299 in kenpom luck factor), but there really
isn’t much there to love. Without a
couple more wins they will be hovering around the cutline.
Lipscomb- 2-3 Q1, but only 1-3 Q2. 17 of their wins are q4. They have a nice road win against bubble TCU,
but that’s not going to be enough.
Alabama- They’ve done almost nothing away from home. They are 4-8 on the road. They have home wins over UK, Mississippi
State, Ole Miss and Murray state. They
are 2-9 in Q1 games and 7-3 in Q2. I
think they’ll be on the wrong side of the bubble.
I Can't See Them Getting in Without Help and A Great Championship Week
Georgetown- They
played the 251 nonconference SOS and in doing so racked up 2 Q3 losses. I think they’ll pay the price for that and
need to at least make the finals of the Big East tournament to have a
chance. Getting to 9-9 in the conference
helped, as did winning by 2 at Marquette and beating Villanova at home. After that their resume just isn’t anything
to write home about. Swept by bubble
Creighton, split with Seton Hall, split with bubble St. Johns, split with bubbling
Xavier, Split with bubblish Butler. Only
76 NET and 86 kenpom. This shouldn’t be
a tournament team.
Toledo- Missed both
opportunities against Buffalo (their only 2 Q1 games). 4-0 against Q2 teams, which is good, but none
of them are tournament quality and that matters to the committee. They have 4 q3 losses (11-4). They need to win the MAC tournament.
Xavier- Too many
losses, not enough meat on the schedule, but does a run to the conference
championship game give them a chance?
They are 4-8 against q1 teams and 4-4 against q2. They are 71 NET and have climbed from the
100s to 66 kenpom. A home win over
Villanova and road wins over Seton Hall and St. Johns are their “big”
wins. They also have home wins over
Creighton, Butler and St Johns. Their 2
q3 losses aren’t great and their wins aren’t good enough to offset everything
else, but the teams above them aren’t that strong you can’t rule out a run to
the Big East Finals getting them there.
Butler- Only 1-10 in Q 1 games, but 8-4 in Q2 games. Their resume is remarkably similar to Clemson’s
except they have not played as good of teams as Clemson. Their best win is the neutral court win over
bubble Florida. They also have home wins
over Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall, St Johns and Xavier (all bubble in or
out). They lost on a neutral floor to
bubble Indiana and only went 7-11 in the league. Another team that needs a run to the
conference tournament finals.
Memphis- I think they
need to win the AAC tournament (at Memphis so there is that), but a run to
finals makes them interesting. They are
53 NET and only 72 kenpom. They went 1-8
against Q1 teams so picking up two to make the finals gets them to 3-8. They have home wins over UCF and Temple. 3 wins would give them another over UCF and
likely one over Houston. They’d only be
2-3 against q2 teams, so I’m skeptical it would be enough, but again the teams
above them aren’t great either.
Small Teams that I Wouldn't Mind Getting a Shot that Won't
UNCG- 2-5 in Q1 games. I don't think two wins over Furman and ETSU are enough.
Furman- I’m skeptical
that 1-5 in Q1 games will be enough even if the one win is a road win at
Villanova. Swept by Wofford, who will make
it. Swept by UNC Greensboro. 16 wins are q4. They are 41 NET and 55 kenpom. That’s just not good enough.
St Marys- At 37 NET
and 33 Kenpom they probably are an NCAA tournament caliber team, but I doubt
they can get in without winning the WCC.
They are 1-6 against q1 teams and their only win is over New Mexico
State. They are 2-3 against q2 but
nothing really stands out there. I can’t
see them making it.
New Mexico State- Only 1 q1 game (a loss to Kansas). 2-1 against Q2, but none of those matter much
and the loss was to St Marys. 14 of
their wins are q4. They won’t be a
tournament team without winning their conference tournament.
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