Pre-Selection Bracket Projection 2020

I’d be stunned if there was a tournament next week.  I’d be surprised if there is a tournament at all.  However, if there is a tournament (either starting next week or eventually) here is my prediction for what the field will look like:

One Seeds:         Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Two Seeds:         San Diego State, Creighton, Florida State, Duke

Three Seeds:     Kentucky, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Oregon

Four Seeds:        Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville, Maryland

Five Seeds:         Ohio State, Penn State, Auburn, Butler

Six Seeds:            BYU, Illinois, Houston, Colorado

Seven Seeds:     West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, St Marys,

Eight Seeds:       Arizona, Michigan, Providence, USC

Nine Seeds:        Marquette, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma

Ten Seeds:          ETSU, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah State

11 Seeds:             Rutgers, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, NC State/Texas

12 Seeds:             Richmond/Wichita State, Stephen F. Austin, Yale, Liberty

13 Seeds:             Akron, Vermont, North Texas, Belmont

14 Seeds:             UC Irvine, NM State, North Dakota State, Hofstra

15 Seeds:             Eastern Washington, Little Rock, NKU, Bradley

16 Seeds:             Winthrop, Boston, Siena/NC Central, Prairie View A&M/Robert Morris

Last 4 In:  NC State, Richmond, Wichita State, Texas

First Four Out:  Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier Purdue

Next Four Out:  Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, South Carolina, Memphis

Others Considered: Arkansas, Rhode Island, Alabama, Tennessee, Syracuse, Tulsa

I have 36 teams I think are definitely in the tournament as of today (not including teams that have already won their at large bids).  Those are every team seeded on the first 8 seed lines, plus every nine seed except Oklahoma.  I think Oklahoma, Arizona State and Rutgers are almost certain to be in as well, but I’m not willing to put it at the likelihood of the other 36. 

That leaves 10 teams I think the committee could theoretically choose as of today for the remaining 6 spots.  Those teams are:  UCLA, Texas Tech, NC State, Richmond, Wichita State, Texas, Mississippi State, Stanford, Xavier and Northern Iowa.  I actually think the committee will overseed UCLA, but I have them on this list because I think they COULD go the other way (They have things the committee traditionally values, but real holes that justify leaving them out).  I have Purdue over Northern Iowa on my First Four Out, but I think Northern Iowa is more likely to make the tournament.  Basically they have things the committee might value that are unique, whereas Purdue has things that other bubble teams did better.