Every team above this list I think is in the tournament and can’t play themselves out. Every team I discuss here ranges from “I think they’re in but the committee could keep them out for X reason,” to “I’m almost certain they are out but they could 1. Play their way in or 2. The committee could justify their inclusion with Y”. I go from most likely to make if the tournament started today to least likely. Right now I’m discussing 29 teams for 12 at large spots, though you’ll notice many near the bottom I don’t think are in or that close.
LSU- Strong strength of schedule and nonconference strength of schedule. 4-8 Q1 and 7-1 Q2. Only one bad loss (at Vandy). I’d be very surprised if they didn’t make it. Home win over Florida and road wins over bubble Texas and bubble South Carolina are their best wins. Also have some nice wins over bubble type teams Arkansas, Bama and Mississippi state to go along with a neutral court win over Rhode Island. This is a strong bubble resume at this point.
Indiana- Another bubble team with a losing record in Q1/Q2 games (9-13). They have great home wins over MSU, Florida State and Ohio State, another Q1 home win over Penn State and a Q1 road win at Minnesota. They have 9 Q1 losses, 8 of which are on the road. They only have 2 road wins (the Minnesota win and a win at Nebraska), but at least can claim two Neutral court Q2 wins (over Notre Dame and Connecticut). I think they’ll end up in the tournament.
Xavier- One great win at Seton Hall is probably going to keep them in even but losing the next two would make them really nervous. They are 3-10 Q1 (and two of those are against Georgetown/St Johns who likely aren’t dancing). They are 7-1 against Q2 with the only loss being at Wake Forest. They don’t have any bad losses. It’s nothing special, but it’s probably a tournament resume.
Southern Cal- I feel like some of the PAC 12 NET numbers don’t make a lot of sense. How much credit will the committee give these teams for their home wins over an Arizona team sitting at 10-7 in conference? USC is 4-7 against Q1 and 6-1 against Q 2. The only “bad” loss was at home to Temple. They beat Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford at home. They have a solid neutral court win over LSU and a road win at UCLA. I think they’re in with a win at home against UCLA to end the season. If they don’t get that they still may hold on, but a couple PAC 12 tournament wins would help them.
Oklahoma- 10-12 Q1 and Q2 isn’t great but they have a few things going for them. They swept WVU, split with Texas (each winning on the others court). They also have a home win over bubble Mississippi State. They don’t have any bad losses. It’s a weaker resume than I thought at first glance and is kind of dependent on what you think of the WVU sweep.
UCLA – If they don’t lose their last 2 I think they get in. They are 6-6 Q1 and 3-3 Q2. They have mostly erased their two bad losses. They still are only 59 in Strength of Record and their predictive metrics have lagged way behind. I don’t think they can afford a major slip up, but they can probably lose to USC and hang on. Sweep of Arizona and sweep of Colorado are enormous for their resume. They also have a nice home win over Arizona State.
Arizona State- Like many of these bubble teams they avoided bad losses (0 Q3/Q4 losses), but have a losing record in Q1/Q2 games (9-11). A 6-5 road record is helpful. Their two best wins are home against Arizona or at Stanford. They have a nice home win over Oregon and home wins over USC and UCLA (that UCLA home win is still technically a Q3 win). The PAC 12 is demonstrably better than last season, but a lot of these teams are pretty close to the bubble. They should be helped out by the #11 SOS and #56 nonconference SOS.
Cincinnati- How much will the committee penalize Cincinnati for 4 Q3 losses? Most of their resume looks tournament worthy, but those losses loom large. They are only 2-6 in Q1 games (a home win over Houston and road win at Wichita), but are 8-0 in Q2 games. That makes them one of the bubble teams actually above .500 in Q1/Q2 games. However, Houston is the only surefire at large team they have beaten all season. They are helped by the 14th ranked SOS including the 25th ranked nonconference SOS. As of right now they have only played 2 Q4 games. The sweep of bubble Wichita State helps, as do home wins over Tennessee, Memphis, UConn, and Tulsa but their list of scalps isn’t at the level where the committee is going to overlook 4 Q3 losses. UC has to hope the committee values their SOS and the fact that UC was testing itself almost every time it took the floor.
East Tennessee State- Here’s a team you want to win its conference tournament if you’re on the bubble. Obviously, their gaudy 24-4 record is inflated by 12 Q4 wins and they do have 1 bad loss to Mercer but they’ve gone .500 in Q1/Q2 games and 12-3 in Q1-Q3. They have Q1 road win over LSU to go with a Q2 road win over UNC Greensboro and Q2 home win over Furman. If they get beat before the finals it may be too much to overcome, but a loss to either Furman or UNCG (both very solid teams) in the finals and they could (and I think should) be rewarded by the committee. Small conference teams like ETSU are going to have a ton of Q3/Q4 games. It’s a good time for the committee to really pay attention to resume metrics like Strength of Record or Wins Above Bubble. ETSU is 28 in SOR and at 2.2 Wins Above Bubble they rank 30th nationally. To me that’s a tournament worthy team.
Rutgers- I think there is a good chance a lot of predictors are off on Rutgers. Today they got their SECOND win away from home all season (over Purdue). Teams never make the tournament with that resume, but their resume may be just unique enough to get there. I still think they need a win or two in the Big 10 tournament to feel good. If they do those things the strength of the rest of their resume should get them in the tournament. They have home wins over Seton Hall, Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana. Their only home loss was to Michigan. But they lost at Pittsburgh, lost a neutral sight game to St. Bonaventure and lost every road game in conference except Nebraska. The committee wants you to prove you can win off your home court. I still think Rutgers needs to prove it.
Texas- Left for dead at one point, they’ve played like a tournament team since mid-February. They have no bad losses and a winning record on the road, which the committee will like. Their best wins are road wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Oklahoma. They also have a home win against WVU. Of course, they are only 7-11 in Q1/Q2 games including a 2-4 Q2 record. Maybe they are in as of today but if they are it’s by the skin of their teeth.
Texas Tech- Maybe they’ve been unlucky but few teams have as drastic a spread in their predictive metrics and resume metrics. They are 21 in kenpom (22 in NET for what that is worth), but only 56 in Strength of Record. The Neutral court win over Louisville is great and the wins over Texas (away) and WVU (home), Oklahoma (home) are nice. However, they are only 7-12 in Q1/Q2 games and 8 of their wins are Q4 games. I think there are a ton of issues with their resume. They need more wins and need them badly, despite a gaudy NET ranking. They are dangerous if they get in, but I’m not convinced they will.
North Carolina State- They are 4-5 in Q1 games (great for a bubble team), 4-5 in Q2 games (not great) and have 2 Q3 losses. 8-10 Q1/Q2 isn’t great but not out of line with many on the bubble. However, unlike say Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, they didn’t combine that by avoiding bad losses. How much will the committee value their home wins over Duke/Wisconsin? They have nice road wins over Virginia and Syracuse, but lost to bubble Memphis. They are going to be right at the cutline one way or the other.
Richmond- If the A10 is going to get a second at large team, Richmond might be the best bet. Since February first the Spiders are 9-1. They have a nice neutral court win over Wisconsin in the nonconference and road wins over Rhode Island and Davidson (3-4 Q1 record). They only have one “bad loss” a neutral court loss to Radford in December and are .500 in Q1/Q2 games (14-7 in Q1-Q3 games). I think they are above Rhode Island and Saint Louis in the A10 pecking order.
Utah State- They can earn a tournament bid tonight, if not the question is did they do enough? All of their metrics scream bubble team(predictive= 42 Sagarin, 43 kenpom, 43 NET… Resume= 46 Strength of Record). Only 4-6 Q1/Q2. Their neutral court wins over Florida and LSU should carry some weight, but the problem is that really is the extent of their resume. If they had avoided those 2 Q3 losses I could see them sliding in, but I think they’ll end up just below the cutline.
Mississippi State- They are 2-6 in Q1 games and 6-3 in Q2 games with 2 Q3 losses. That’s not great. Their only win over a surefire at large team is a road win over Florida. They swept Arkansas (the road win being their other Q1 win) and beat Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina at home. They aren’t particularly strong (or weak for that matter) in the predictive metrics or resume metrics. I think they likely have work to do in the SEC tournament.
Wichita State- There’s nothing really bad about Wichita State’s resume, but there isn’t any meat to it either. They absolutely have to beat Tulsa on Sunday to have any hope of an at large bid. As of right now they are 0-5 against the top three AAC teams. They are 2-6 in Q1 games, though neither win is over an at large caliber team and 7-2 against Q2 teams. They have wins over bubble Oklahoma (home), and fringe bubble teams Memphis (home) and South Carolina (Neutral). Their strength of record number is actually pretty good, but you’d have to think they need to win against Tulsa and make the conference finals to feel good about their chances.
Northern Iowa – Their loss in Arch Madness should have a lot of bubble teams very nervous. They have a good road win over Colorado. They are 1-1 Q1 and 3-2 Q2. However, they have 3 Q3 losses and 19 of their wins are Q3/Q4. They are 47 NET and 48 kenpom. They also have 1 Win Above Bubble, but their Strength of Record has slipped to 54 with the loss to Drake. If they were top 45 in that number I think they’d have a better chance. They are the kind of team I wouldn’t mind getting a shot, but given their 3 Q3 losses and limited Q1/Q2 opportunities I think they’ll be left out.
Saint Louis- I don’t think 4-6 Q1/Q2 with 2 Q3 losses will quite get them there. Road wins over Richmond and Rhode Island help. They also have a road win at Kansas State. Short of a trip to the A10 finals I see no chance, but could that get them there?
South Carolina- They are 3-8 Q1 and 5-2 Q2. They have a really nice home win over Kentucky and nice road wins over Arkansas and Virginia. They also have a road win at Clemson and home win over bubble Mississippi State. If they didn’t have 3 bad losses (2 Q3, 1 Q4) they’d probably be closer to the discussion. As it is the losing Q1/Q2 record AND the bad losses keep them out. They could still do some work in the SEC tournament.
Purdue- Too many losses? I think it’s likely without a deep Big Ten tournament run. This is probably a tournament caliber team that doesn’t have a tournament caliber resume. The sweep of Iowa is great, as is the home win over Michigan State and road win over Indiana (swept Indiana). They also have a nice nonconference home win over Virginia. They are 9-14 in Q1/Q2 games and have a Q3 loss. Probably need to make at least the finals of the Big 10 tournament.
Memphis- Right now Memphis doesn’t have strong enough wins or a strong enough strength of schedule to make up for their 3 quad 3 losses. If they can beat Houston again and make the conference tournament finals, that could change. They have home wins over Houston, Wichita and Cincinnati (the three best tournament resumes in the conference) and a road win at Tennessee. They are 8-6 Q1/Q2. They aren’t there now but are another team that could play their way to the discussion.
Arkansas- 3-5 in Q1 but only 4-6 Q2. A road win at Indiana is nice, as is their home win over LSU, but none of their other wins are over at large caliber teams. They have avoided bad losses, something Alabama cannot say.
Rhode Island- Only 1-6 in Q1 games and that win is over a quickly fading VCU team. Home win over Providence is nice. Home wins over Bama, VCU and Davidson help too, but none of that is strong enough to get them in. They are still on the list because they will get a chance or two to add to their resume in the A10 tournament.
Alabama- 0-7 Q1 really says it all. 9-4 Q2 is fine, but not enough to make up for the 0-7 and they have 3 Q3 losses on top of that. Home wins over LSU, Auburn, Richmond and Mississippi State are nice, but they really have not done much away from home to warrant their inclusion.
Stephen F. Austin- The predictive metrics say they aren’t an at large caliber team…not even close. However, they are 43 in strength of record and have a road win over Duke. They are 20-1 in Q4 games. If they lose maybe there will be an interesting discussion, but I just don’t see them getting in.
Tennessee- 3-9 Q1 and 5-4 Q2. Their road win over Kentucky this week was great and warrants at least keeping them in discussion in case they go on a run in the SEC tournament. However, as of right now they haven’t done nearly enough. A home win over Florida is their only other win over a surefire tournament team. They only have 1 bad loss.
Syracuse- A somewhat similar resume to Arkansas but they have 2 bad losses to Arkansas’ zero. They are 3-5 against Q1 (not bad), but only 3-6 Q2. Their win at Virginia is their only win over a tournament team. I don’t see them getting in.
Tulsa- Losses to Arkansas State, UT Arlington and Colorado State probably doomed them, but if they win an outright championship and make the conference finals maybe they have a chance. 2-3 Q1, 4-4 Q2. They have a home win over Houston and a road win over UConn. They beat Wichita at home.
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